Core Viewpoint - Recent weeks have seen a significant rise in long-term bond yields across developed markets, reaching multi-year highs, driven by concerns over fiscal sustainability and external risks in various economies [1][3][4] Supply Side: "Fiscal Expansion" Leading to Imbalance - The current surge in long-term bond yields reflects a severe imbalance in supply and demand, exacerbated by fiscal expansion pressures in major economies [4] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with interest payments projected to reach $1-1.2 trillion by fiscal year 2025, indicating a growing fiscal burden [4][5] - France's government is facing challenges in reducing its deficit, with proposed budget cuts meeting public resistance, which could further strain its fiscal position [5][6] Demand Side: Investors Reacting to Fiscal Concerns - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are leading to increased selling of long-term bonds, with a notable decline in demand from traditional holders such as central banks and insurance companies [9][10] - The structure of bondholders is shifting, with a decrease in the proportion of "non-price sensitive" buyers, leading to heightened volatility in bond markets [10] - The demand for long-term bonds is being negatively impacted by reduced purchases from foreign investors, particularly from Japan and China, which are significant holders of U.S. debt [9][10] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest a focus on short-term U.S. Treasury rates, anticipating a continuation of the steepening yield curve, although the potential for further significant increases in long-term yields may be limited [11] - The current market dynamics indicate that while short-term yields may rise, long-term yields could face resistance at key levels, particularly around the 5% mark for 30-year bonds [11]

Core Insights - The event "Jiangsu Pursuing New Green Bonds for High-Quality Development Client Promotion Conference" was successfully held, focusing on macroeconomic analysis, bond market trends, and business cooperation opportunities [1] - The conference highlighted the importance of integrating technology finance and green finance to support enterprises in broadening financing channels and reducing costs [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The conference was hosted by the Jiangsu Branch of China Construction Bank (CCB) and attended by representatives from 38 high-quality technology innovation enterprises and 29 market cooperation institutions [1] - Key speeches were delivered by officials including Zhang Bao, Deputy Secretary-General of Huai'an Municipal Government, and senior executives from CCB [1] Group 2: Financial Strategies and Goals - CCB aims to leverage its comprehensive advantages in funding, channels, licenses, and professionals to promote technology innovation and drive the real economy [2] - The Jiangsu Branch of CCB is committed to building a comprehensive financial service system that integrates equity and debt financing, as well as financing and intelligence [2] Group 3: Market Insights and Innovations - Expert presentations during the conference provided insights into interest rate logic, green bond market outlook, and trends in credit bond issuance [3] - CCB Jiangsu Branch has underwritten 82 bond issues for 47 quality enterprises this year, raising over 58 billion yuan, thereby supporting Jiangsu's economic development [5] - The bank has pioneered several innovative financial products, including the first green technology innovation bonds and various types of REITs, enhancing market access for enterprises [5]

Core Insights - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in financial services is a key focus for institutions, with challenges in cost, security, and trust still present [1][2] - Major institutions like China Merchants Bank, JD Finance, and Huatai Securities are accelerating the application of AI in their business operations as AI technology matures [1][2] Group 1: AI Application in Banking - China Merchants Bank's Chief Information Officer highlighted that the current cost of large model applications remains high, but the application scope in banking is extensive [1] - The bank's strategy focuses on high-value scenarios that require significant human and time investment while aiming to reduce costs [1] - AI has been deeply integrated into core business segments such as retail and wholesale, enhancing services like "Xiao Zhao" intelligent service and "CRM Xiao Zhu" for client managers [1] Group 2: AI in Non-Banking Financial Services - A large brokerage's technology R&D center has implemented AI large model technology for intelligent research reports, improving both speed and quality of report production [2] - Institutions like JD Finance and Dongfang Caifu are maturing in their AI applications for internal management and customer marketing services, with expectations for further development in business assistance and customer acquisition [2] - Challenges in compliance, security, and trust in financial scenarios were noted, with recommendations for building multi-layered defense systems to protect data privacy and counteract potential attacks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in government bond futures has led to increased expectations for the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to resume government bond trading operations, particularly in the fourth quarter, to release medium- to long-term funds and improve market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds have fallen below 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively, indicating a significant rise in yields since the beginning of the year [1]. - The bond market sentiment is currently bearish, with the 10-year government bond yield recently rising to around 1.8% [2]. - The PBOC has suspended government bond trading operations for eight consecutive months, leading to a notable shift in the bond market compared to earlier in the year [2]. Group 2: PBOC Operations - The PBOC's resumption of government bond trading is seen as having suitable conditions, although the urgency is not strong at the moment [1][6]. - The PBOC has previously indicated that it would consider resuming operations based on market supply and demand conditions [1]. - The PBOC's operations are primarily aimed at managing liquidity and influencing government bond yield trends [2][3]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts believe that the resumption of government bond trading could stabilize bond prices and mitigate negative feedback loops from large-scale redemptions of wealth management products [6]. - Some analysts argue that the PBOC's bond trading operations are more flexible and effective compared to other liquidity management tools like reverse repos [5]. - The current market dynamics suggest that the resumption of bond trading may not fundamentally alter the interest rate trends, as the core factors are related to the stock-bond valuation relationship [6].

以下文章来源于21世纪资管研究院 ，作者21世纪资管研究院 受此影响，最近一周债基收益较为低迷。wind数据显示，截至9月11日发稿，所收录的930只 短期纯债型基金中有751只近一周回报为负；3571只中长期纯债基金中有2926只近一周回报为 负。 CNEX债券分歧指数显示，在此轮债市"阵痛"行情中，基金机构持续抛券，成为市场卖方主 力。 21世纪资管研究院 . 21世纪资管研究院是南方财经全媒体集团旗下致力于资管领域政策和业务研究的独立智库，研究院宗 旨：探索全球资管发展新趋势，求解国内资管发展新问题，搭建资管人才成长大平台，促进资管行业健 康长远发展。 记者丨 吴霜 余纪昕 编辑丨方海平 公募基金费用新规的余波席卷至债市。 近两日，债券收益率大幅攀升。 10年期国债收益率自9月4日1.74%的低位于几个交易日内连 续快速上行，9月10日，债市跌势仍未止步，10年期国债收益率当日下午突破1.8%的关键点 位，一度触及1.83%的高点；30年期国债收益率也上行2.9个基点，来到2.10%附近。 9月11日截至发稿， 债市现已有企稳迹象，呈现长短端表现分化。 利率债品种中，长端还在继 续跌，比如30年期国债活 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——"史上最丑"与"丑上最薄"：iPhone 17系列背后的新战事 每经AI快讯，长城证券9月11日晚间发布公告称，公司第三届第十三次董事会会议于2025年9月11日以通 讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于选举公司第三届董事会风险控制与合规委员会委员的议案》等文件。 （记者 贾运可） ...

西部证券公告，2025年9月11日，北京长安投资集团有限公司等七家股东合计持有的国融证券11.51亿股 股份已完成过户登记，全部划转至西部证券，占国融证券总股本的64.5961%。此次股份变动完成后， 西部证券持有国融证券11.51亿股股份。 ...

固定收益 债市策略 利率互换曲线正走出倒挂，债市将由牛市转为震荡 2025 年 9 月 11 日 固定收益研究/定期报告 相关报告： 效果探究-利率衍生品系列报告之二 2025.7.28 外部冲击超预期，利率有望下行-4 月固 定收益月报 2025.5.26 震荡调整结束，债市仍有上涨空间-3 月 固定收益月报 2025.4.7 王冠军 执业登记编码：S0760524040001 投资要点： 债市将由牛市切换为震荡行情 利率互换倒挂历史复盘及降准降息预测 利率互换曲线形态正常化：今年 7 月以来，标志着降息预期的 2 年期利 率互换和 1 年期的倒挂程度加速收窄，7 月底开始来到零的位置徘徊。根据 我们的降息概率测算模型（详见 2024 年 9 月 12 日发布的报告《利率互换曲 线倒挂隐含多少降息预期》），利率互换曲线显示一年内降息概率不足 5 成。 而在 7 月前，利率互换曲线隐含的降息预期较为稳定，一年内降息预期总体 保持在 10bp 到 20bp 范围。 山证固定收益团队 分析师： 债市将由牛市切换为震荡行情：降息预期的这一重大变化标志着债市或 将由牛市行情切换为震荡行情，并且长端利率震荡的中枢将抬升 ...

Group 1 - Li Mengqiang has been with Dongfang Securities Research Institute since 2015, focusing on sectors such as chemicals, new energy, and new materials, with expertise in lithium batteries, photovoltaics, solid-state batteries, and hydrogen energy [2] - His latest report, published on July 25, highlights that semi-solid batteries are achieving commercialization in scenarios like 3C, eVTOL, and humanoid robots, which will accelerate the maturity of the solid-state battery supply chain [2] - The report suggests paying attention to battery companies with first-mover advantages in emerging markets and core suppliers of high-performance anode and cathode materials [2] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, Ping An Securities' commission income from sub-accounts was 27.1044 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.04%, ranking 36th in the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "Second Golden Unicorn Best Investment Advisor Selection" event highlights the rapid growth of China's wealth management industry, emphasizing the critical role of investment advisors in guiding asset allocation for the public [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Challenges - The wealth management industry in China is entering a high-growth phase, driven by an increase in residents' financial literacy and diversified investment needs [1] - Investment advisors face multi-dimensional challenges, including the need for comprehensive wealth management services that go beyond traditional investment advice, such as asset allocation, tax planning, and retirement planning [2] - Increased market volatility and the complexity of financial products require investment advisors to help clients manage risks while achieving asset preservation and growth [2] Group 2: Service Enhancement Strategies - Investment advisors must shift from a product-centric approach to a client-centric model, focusing on understanding clients' risk tolerance, investment goals, and life stages to provide personalized investment solutions [3] - The integration of technology, such as big data and artificial intelligence, is essential for enhancing service capabilities and ensuring targeted, high-quality client interactions [3] - A collaborative team approach involving investment advisors, research analysts, and risk management experts is being adopted to address complex wealth management needs for high-net-worth clients [4] Group 3: Client-Centric Philosophy - The industry emphasizes a "client interests first" philosophy, promoting ethical training and client satisfaction assessments to ensure that advisors prioritize clients' needs [4] - Innovative service models, including online investment seminars and personalized advisory services, are encouraged to enhance client experience and engagement [4]