Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, indicating the beginning of a new bull market, driven by increased market confidence and favorable policies [3][4]. Market Performance - As of June 26, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3460.62 points, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw increases of 0.26% and 0.30% respectively [1]. - On June 25, all three major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3455.97 points, up 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index rising by 3.11% [2]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts believe that the recent surge in A-shares reflects a shift in market sentiment, with the impact of negative overseas news diminishing [3]. - The current market conditions are seen as a confirmation of a primary upward trend, with potential targets for the Shanghai Composite Index set at around 3674 points [4]. Sector Focus - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, military industry, and financial technology, as these are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [4]. - The long-term outlook suggests that China may produce the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, and consumer upgrades will create opportunities for brand revaluation [3]. Catalysts for Growth - Recent measures by the central bank and other departments to encourage long-term capital inflow have positively impacted the financial sector, particularly brokerage stocks [5]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel, has contributed to a reduction in global risk aversion, further enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a focus on virtual currency concept stocks, driven by geopolitical events and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a rise in the Hong Kong stock market [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index opened high and closed at 24,474 points, up 297 points or 1.23%, with significant trading volume of 267.8 billion HKD, an increase of 11.4% from the previous day [2][3] - The report notes a substantial net inflow from the Northbound trading, amounting to 9.574 billion HKD, a 269.8% increase compared to the previous day [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - All 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices rose, with the leading sectors being real estate and construction, financials, and consumer discretionary, showing gains between 1.38% and 2.61% [3] - The report indicates that energy, healthcare, and telecommunications sectors lagged behind, with increases of only 0.09% to 0.17% [3] Group 3: Company Insights - Guotai Junan International (1788.HK) received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its license to provide virtual asset trading services, resulting in a stock price surge of 198.4% to 3.70 HKD [5][6] - Other brokerage firms also experienced significant gains, with increases ranging from 29.4% to 42.1% following Guotai Junan's announcement [5] Group 4: Digital Payment Sector - Lianlian Digital (2598.HK) is identified as a digital payment service provider that is expected to benefit from the rollout of stablecoin services, with a focus on cross-border e-commerce [9][10] - The company has established a strong presence with 5.9 million merchants served and holds 65 payment licenses, enabling it to operate in over 100 countries [9][10] - The report projects a total payment volume (TPV) of 3.3 trillion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 65% [10] Group 5: Stablecoin Development - The report discusses the potential for stablecoins to become efficient payment methods, with the IMF supporting the establishment of regulatory frameworks for their use [6][7] - Lianlian Digital plans to apply for stablecoin issuance in Q4 2024, targeting cross-border trade payments to address current inefficiencies in the banking payment system [11][12]

Market Overview - Major stock indices in China experienced a narrow fluctuation in the morning, followed by a strong rally in the afternoon, driven by the financial and real estate sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.03% to 3455.97 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.72% to 10393.72 points, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.11% to 2128.39 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 16402 billion yuan, an increase of over 1900 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Brokerage Sector - Guotai Junan International saw a significant increase of 198% due to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission approving its upgrade to a virtual asset trading license, making it the first Chinese brokerage to offer comprehensive virtual asset services. This aligns with the current market interest in "stablecoin" themes, leading to a corresponding rise in the A-share brokerage sector [2] - Donghai Securities noted that the sustainability of the brokerage sector's performance depends on the pace of policy benefits realization and the maintenance of market activity levels. The actual impact of capital market reform policies is a key focus for investors, which is crucial for the recovery of brokerage performance [2] Semiconductor Industry - The memory market, particularly DDR4, has seen a significant price increase due to production cuts announced by storage wafer manufacturers. This price surge is attributed to strong supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of continued revenue growth for major storage manufacturers in the second quarter of 2025 [3] - Citic Securities recommends focusing on storage chip design firms and distributors, as well as module manufacturers, due to the rising prices of DDR4 memory. The increasing penetration of DDR5 is also anticipated as some DDR4 prices exceed those of DDR5 [3] AI Infrastructure - The demand for AI model training and inference is driving the evolution of system-level computing infrastructure. The focus is shifting towards larger clusters, as single-chip performance improvements are expected to slow down. System-level nodes are seen as a critical direction for AI computing development [4] - Citic Securities suggests monitoring the shipment of system-level products from leading companies and the progress of domestic system-level products represented by Huawei's CloudMatrix384, indicating potential growth in the domestic supply chain [4] Dairy Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is actively promoting high-quality development in the dairy industry, emphasizing the implementation of industry relief policies and support for dairy farmers. Efforts are being made to boost dairy consumption and enhance the processing of dairy products [5][6] Foreign Investment - The Ministry of Commerce announced a pilot program to promote the reporting of domestic investment information by foreign-invested enterprises, with the first pilot regions being Jiangsu, Shanghai, Tianjin, Liaoning, Hebei, Hunan, Shaanxi, and Chongqing. This initiative aims to attract more foreign investment [7] Smart Transportation - The Ministry of Transport is focusing on the development of smart transportation, planning to compile a comprehensive transportation plan and promote innovative projects in this area. The goal is to secure diverse funding and resources to enhance the overall development of smart transportation [8]

6月26日周四，A股小幅低开，三大股指早盘震荡回升，军工股继续强势，固态电池概念活跃，创新药板块调整。 港股低开低走，恒指早盘跌近1%，医药股下跌，新消费三宝走低，国泰君安国际盘初一度涨90%，现涨近30%。 债市方面，国债期货集体上涨。核心市场走势： | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 3456.62 | 0.64 | 0.02% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 10428.64 | 34.91 | 0.34% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 2138.36 | 9.97 | 0.47% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 3961.84 | 1.78 | 0.04% | | 000016 | FJESO | | 2745.01 | -2.71 | -0.10% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | | 1219.76 | 2.67 | 0.22% | | 000688 | 科创20 | | 1001.50 | 5.89 | ...

Report Overview - The report is the 114th issue of the Morning Meeting Minutes in 2025, released on June 26, 2025, by Zhongyuan Futures Research Institute [2]. 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economic and political situation is complex, with international trade patterns changing, geopolitical conflicts affecting the market, and China's domestic policies focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting economic development [7][8]. - The commodity market shows different trends. Agricultural products are in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating slightly; energy - chemical products have different price movements due to factors such as supply and demand changes and policy expectations; industrial metals are affected by factors such as inventory and demand, with prices mostly in a state of shock; the stock and option markets are also affected by various factors, and investors need to pay attention to market trends and policy changes [4][12][18]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Chemical Industry - **Price Changes**: On June 26, 2025, in the chemical industry, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, plastic, etc. rose, while crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, etc. fell. For example, natural rubber rose 135.0 to 13,905.00, with a rise - fall rate of 0.980%, and crude oil fell 3.80 to 504.80, with a rise - fall rate of - 0.747% [4]. 3.2 Macro News - **International**: Premier Li Qiang of the State Council attended the opening ceremony of the 2025 Summer Davos Forum and stated China's stance on economic globalization. US President Trump mentioned negotiations with Iran on a potential nuclear agreement and expressed his views on the Israel - Iran conflict. He also said that China can continue to buy oil from Iran and hopes China will also buy a large amount of oil from the US [7][8]. - **Domestic**: China is accelerating the construction of a unified national market, expanding domestic demand, and promoting innovation in various fields such as medicine and new energy vehicles. For example, the state is promoting the development of high - end equipment manufacturing, smart photovoltaics, etc., and the National Medical Products Administration is taking measures to speed up the approval of innovative drugs and medical devices [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: In a pattern of weak supply and demand, with slow inventory removal and poor downstream demand, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: On June 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased significantly. With the expected end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the oil market is expected to be under pressure, and short - selling is recommended [12]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is suppressed by Brazil's peak - season sugar pressing, while the domestic market has support from low inventory and the upcoming summer consumption season. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels in the 5750 - 5800 range and pay attention to the support at 5700 [12]. - **Corn**: The market is in a state of mixed long and short factors. With factors such as the strong price - holding attitude of traders in the Northeast and the weakening demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply is relatively stable, and the futures market is affected by policy expectations and supply concerns. The main 09 contract is testing the pressure in the 13800 - 14000 range [14]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the supply is sufficient and the demand is weak. In the medium term, there are expectations of supply - demand transformation. The futures market is expected to remain volatile, waiting for long - entry opportunities [14]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price has risen slightly. With some enterprises planning to shut down for maintenance at the end of the month, supply is expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to export policies and agricultural demand [14]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price is expected to continue to run at a low level due to the lack of strong fundamental support [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by factors such as safety inspections and environmental protection, the market sentiment has improved, but the overall demand is still weak, and the short - term trend is stable and volatile [14][16]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper inventory has decreased, and the price is under pressure at the 80,000 - yuan level. Aluminum inventory has increased slightly, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [16]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are expected to remain relatively loose in the short term, and the price is expected to decline slightly and run at a low level in the medium term [16]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The spot market is in a wait - and - see state, with weak trading volume. Rebar inventory has increased, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased slightly. Steel prices are under pressure but may fluctuate due to the improvement of the macro - environment [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have rebounded strongly, and the basis has narrowed rapidly. They are expected to follow the overall upward trend of commodities in the short term [16][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see, and if the price stabilizes above 61,000 yuan, a small - position long - entry can be considered [18]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has risen strongly, and the international stock market shows different trends. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the domestic market risk appetite has increased. Investors should pay attention to trading volume, the performance of the non - banking financial sector, and the formation of leading sectors [18][20]. - **Options**: For trend investors, it is recommended to go long on the CSI 1000 and short on the SSE 50 for arbitrage. For volatility investors, it is recommended to hold a long - straddle position to bet on increased volatility [21][23].

Group 1 - Chinese brokerage stocks in the Hong Kong market experienced significant declines, with Hongye Futures (001236) dropping over 9% [1] - China Everbright Holdings fell more than 8%, indicating a broader trend of weakness among Chinese financial firms [1] - Both Zhongzhou Securities and Dongfang Securities saw declines exceeding 6%, reflecting a challenging environment for the sector [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of Hong Kong brokerage stocks, with notable increases in share prices for several companies [1] - Victory Securities (08540.HK) has seen a significant rise of 55.38% [1] - Guotai Junan International (01788.HK) has increased by 25.14% [1] - Derun Holdings (01709.HK) has experienced a growth of 13.79% [1]

港股三大指数集体低开，恒指开跌0.53%，恒科指开跌0.52%，国企指数开跌0.55%。 盘面上，中资券商股再度活跃，国泰君安国际涨超14%，弘业期货涨超5%。周六福上市首日开涨 11.25%。 后市研判 浦银国际指出，当前恒生指数的前瞻市盈率已达10.3倍，已经高于4月2日特朗普宣布"对等关税"前的水 平。预计港股阶段性估值修复或已基本完成， 估值进一步提升或需新的催化剂。 华泰证券认为，三季度港股或从此前上行趋势转为阶段震荡，但增配逻辑依然不改，因此逢低买入并持 有依然是可行操作。具体配置上，建议逢低增配科技(科技升级趋势下的硬科技，互联网及AI)、消费 (地产周期下半段的消费潜力修复，如互联网消费，医药，大众消费及农林牧渔等)，大金融(香港本地股 及中资股)等板块。 高盛表示，维持对港股的超配建议，国经济增长短期仍较有韧性，今年下半年政策对冲会明显加码。 国金证券指出，今年港股整体表现突出，各种板块、概念层出不穷，底层逻辑来自于便宜资产的长期低 估，大量内地优质资产在港IPO，提升了港股的资产质量，吸引了全球流动资金的关注、加持。另外， 去美元化的全球投资策略和美国降息预期对港股的流动性利好。据此我们对 ...

Group 1 - Guotai Junan International received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its existing securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services, leading to a significant market reaction with its stock price surging by 198.4% on June 25 [1] - The approval has sparked interest in the virtual asset trading market, with 40 institutions now authorized to offer such services, including Tianfeng International and Huafu Securities, indicating a growing recognition of virtual asset trading services in the market [1] - The event has created a ripple effect in the brokerage sector, with several Chinese brokerage stocks experiencing price changes, reflecting investor optimism about the expansion of virtual asset trading services [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities announced plans to issue the first broker-dealer technology innovation bond in the interbank market, with an initial issuance size of 500 million yuan, marking a significant expansion of financing channels for brokerages [2] - The total issuance of technology innovation bonds by brokerages in the exchange market has surpassed 100 billion yuan, with major players like CITIC Securities and Guotai Haitong leading the way [2] - The issuance of these bonds is expected to bolster the capital strength and market confidence of the issuing brokerages, while also reflecting the industry's support for technology innovation [3] Group 3 - In June, the new fund issuance scale exceeded 90 billion yuan, with bond funds becoming particularly popular, indicating a shift in investor preference towards more stable investment strategies amid market volatility [4] - Mixed-asset FOF funds emerged as the top fund-raising category in June, while passive index products saw a decline in issuance, suggesting a cautious market sentiment among investors [4] - The changes in fund flows reflect an adaptive response to the current market conditions, with a trend towards conservative investment approaches [4] Group 4 - The first batch of 15 floating-rate funds has been established, attracting over 150 billion yuan in total subscriptions and more than 180,000 effective subscriptions, indicating strong market acceptance of these products [5] - The establishment of these floating-rate funds is expected to alleviate the decline in active equity fund issuance, thereby boosting investor confidence [5] - The successful launch of these funds may enhance the long-term development prospects for fund companies and increase interest in related sectors such as financial technology and fund distribution [6]

港股中资券商股盘初快速回调，申万宏源(06806.HK)跌超3%，华泰证券(06886.HK)跌超2%，弘业期货 (03678.HK)涨幅收窄至不足3%。 ...