Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [5][26]. Core Insights - Recent geopolitical events and thematic catalysts have increased market interest in the military sector, with significant gains observed in commercial aerospace, large aircraft, and military trade segments. The industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan and rising foreign trade expectations [5][6]. - The report highlights that the military industry is entering a new growth cycle, driven by modernization goals and increased defense spending as outlined in the recent policy meetings. The first half of 2026 is anticipated to see continued improvement in the industry's fundamentals, with a recovery in orders and performance [5][6]. - The domestic industrial policy is facilitating the development of commercial aerospace, with leading companies accelerating their IPO processes. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand growth and technological advancements in driving investment opportunities within the military sector [5][6]. Market Performance - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 4.37%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index increased by 6.82%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, and the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.62% [6][12]. - The report notes that the defense and military sector's performance ranked 10th among 31 Shenwan primary industry indices, with the average increase of the CSI Civil-Military Integration Index at 3.73% [6][12]. Stock Performance - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector last week were: - Aero Engine Corporation of China (40.45%) - Aerospace Electronics (22.6%) - Triangle Defense (21.24%) - Beimo High-Tech (20.46%) - Aero Engine Control (18.36%) [12][21] - Conversely, the bottom five performing stocks were: - *ST Aowei (-22.34%) - Shenjian Co. (-15.12%) - Aerospace Power (-12.68%) - Haige Communication (-9.23%) - Saiwei Electronics (-9.08%) [12][21]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 103.17, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 78.49% since January 2014 and 99.82% since January 2019. The aerospace and aviation equipment sectors are noted to be at relatively high valuation levels since 2020 [13][18].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline, with a significant reduction of 15 billion shares in broad - based ETFs in a single day. Large - cap index is dragged down by large - order pressing on multiple weight stocks at the end of the session. Meanwhile, the CSI 500 index rebounds after filling the gap, and long opportunities in IH and IC should be continuously monitored [2]. - Enterprises' profits are recovering. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China reached 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, reversing the three - year decline trend. In December, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase [1]. - A - share major indices closed up in the spot market, with sector indices mostly falling. In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were all at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, while the IM position increased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Macro - economy**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. In December, the profit changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase. Trump plans to raise the tariff on South Korean products from 15% to 25%. The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to 84.5, the lowest since 2014 [1]. - **Spot market**: A - share major indices closed up, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.18% to 4139.9 points and the ChiNext Index rising 0.71%. Sector indices mostly fell, with electronics, communication, and national defense and military industries leading the gains, and coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and steel industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased to 2.9 trillion yuan. US major indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.83% and the Nasdaq rising 0.91% [1]. - **Futures market**: The basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the IM position increased [1]. Strategy - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline. The share of broad - based ETFs decreased by 15 billion shares in a single day. Pay attention to long opportunities in IH and IC [2]. Charts - **Macro - economic charts**: Include relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends and styles [5][10][12][13]. - **Spot market tracking charts**: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on January 27, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. [12]. - **Stock index futures tracking charts**: Provide information on the trading volume, position, basis, and inter - period spreads of stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM [14][37][41].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable outlook for mid-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals, as well as manufacturing sectors like engineering machinery [6][16]. Core Insights - The anticipated changes are beneficial for mid-cap blue chips, with recent events catalyzing interest in cyclical industries and manufacturing, aligning with the market's shift towards a more balanced risk appetite [6][16]. - Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals, defense and military industry, and machinery equipment, with a noted strengthening trend in these areas [20][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Expected Changes Favoring Mid-Cap Blue Chips - Liquidity expectations have improved, leading to intensified trading activity, driven by rising optimism regarding interest rate cuts following the potential election of BlackRock's Riedel as Fed Chair, with a probability of 54% [9][11]. - Significant price increases in typical petrochemical products such as butadiene rubber, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have enhanced profitability expectations for refining companies [11][12]. - China's engineering machinery exports surged to USD 6.417 billion in December 2025, a 27.2% year-on-year increase, supported by more active participation in Belt and Road Initiative projects [12][15]. - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, particularly in major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [15][27]. 2. Trading Dynamics - The report notes that while the overall market sentiment for large-cap stocks has declined, mid-cap and small-cap stocks exhibit stable short-term sentiment with decreasing medium-term uncertainty, suggesting potential for small-cap stocks to catch up [17][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trading behavior through asset volatility, indicating that changes in volatility reflect shifts in trading sentiment [17][20]. 3. Sector Rotation - The report highlights a strengthening trend in cyclical sectors related to mid-cap blue chips, particularly non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, while the real estate sector shows weakening reversal signals [20][21][27]. - Short-term sentiment and medium-term uncertainty for non-ferrous metals, defense, and petrochemical sectors are both on the rise, indicating potential investment opportunities [23][26].

资产配置 | 定期报告 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 28 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-63326320 | | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | | 美/日风险评价上升，贵金属及低风险特征 | 2026-01-26 | | --- | --- | | 权益占优：20260126 多资产配置周报 | | | CTA 策略仍强，指增和中性策略回暖： | 2026-01-22 | | 20260119 多策略及理财配置周报 | | | 风偏继续向中间集中：20260119 多资产配 | 2026-01-20 | | 置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | 国内风险评价稳步下行，A 股/商品占优： | 2026-01-13 | | 20260112 多资产配 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of January 27, the latest market financing balance is 27,059.04 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 2.12 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with 17 industries experiencing an increase in financing balance, while 14 industries saw a decrease [1]. Industry Financing Balance Changes - The communication industry had the highest increase in financing balance, rising by 1.11 billion yuan to a total of 1,339.67 billion yuan [1]. - Other industries with notable increases include: - Pharmaceutical and biological: increased by 0.44 billion yuan to 1,696.03 billion yuan - Non-ferrous metals: increased by 0.41 billion yuan to 1,494.54 billion yuan - Public utilities: increased by 0.29 billion yuan to 569.69 billion yuan [1]. - Conversely, the following industries experienced significant decreases in financing balance: - Machinery and equipment: decreased by 1.70 billion yuan to 1,418.93 billion yuan - Automotive: decreased by 0.96 billion yuan to 1,242.31 billion yuan - National defense and military: decreased by 0.68 billion yuan to 1,040.47 billion yuan [2]. Percentage Changes in Financing Balance - The coal industry recorded the highest percentage increase in financing balance at 1.09%, totaling 149.82 billion yuan [1]. - Other industries with notable percentage increases include: - Communication: 0.84% - Steel: 0.79% - Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery: 0.59% [1]. - Industries with the largest percentage decreases include: - Machinery and equipment: decreased by 1.19% - Comprehensive: decreased by 1.10% - Oil and petrochemicals: decreased by 0.89% [1].

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with all three major indices closing in the green, indicating a rebound after a period of decline [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4139.90, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.09% to 14329.91 [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electronics (up 2.27%), Communications (up 2.15%), and National Defense & Military Industry (up 1.65%) [2] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were Coal (down 2.27%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (down 1.95%), and Steel (down 1.34%) [2] Concept Index Performance - Notable concept indices included Cultivated Diamonds (up 3.31%), Automotive Chips (up 3.26%), and National Fund Holdings (up 3.18%) [2] - On the downside, indices such as Animal Vaccines (down 2.76%) and Avian Influenza (down 2.03%) performed poorly [2] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to continue its spring rally, primarily driven by structural trends rather than a broad market surge [5] - It is recommended to maintain a balanced portfolio, focusing on undervalued assets with stable earnings, technology-driven sectors, and domestic demand expansion [5] Industrial Profit Data - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 739.82 billion, a 0.6% increase from the previous year [4] - State-owned enterprises reported a profit of 205.61 billion, down 3.9%, while foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises saw a profit increase of 4.2% to 174.47 billion [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a significant loss effect, with over 4,400 stocks in the red during early trading, but major indices managed to close slightly higher due to the support from heavyweight stocks [1][14]. Market Performance - A total of 3,454 stocks closed lower, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18% to 4,139.9 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.71% to 3,342.6 points [5][12]. - The market's trading volume decreased by 359.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, totaling 2.92 trillion yuan [5][12]. - Margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 2.73 trillion yuan as of January 26 [5]. Sector Performance - The semiconductor, communication equipment, and aerospace sectors saw significant activity, with storage chips, optical communication modules, and automotive chips each rising over 3% [6][11]. - The coal and agriculture sectors experienced declines, with coal dropping over 2% [6][12]. - Notable gainers included electronic stocks, with several companies reaching their daily limit up, such as Dongxin Co. and Shengke Communication, both up by 20% [8][10]. Investment Sentiment - The market reflects a strong divergence, with heavyweight stocks supporting the index while small-cap stocks face significant outflows [14][19]. - Investors are advised to focus on sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies and to monitor changes in policy and capital flow closely [4][16]. - The current market environment is characterized by a cautious sentiment, with many investors adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Spring Festival [4][14]. Recommendations - Investment strategies should prioritize sectors with strong earnings visibility, such as industrial resources and technology stocks with solid order support [17][18]. - It is recommended to avoid high-valuation stocks without fundamental support and to consider defensive positions in the current market volatility [18][19].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 行业表现：今日正股行业指数下降占比过半，共计 23 个行业下跌。A 股市场 中，跌幅前三位行业为煤炭（-2.27%）、农林牧渔（-1.95%）、钢铁（-1.34%）； 涨幅前三位行业为电子（+2.27%）、通信（+2.15%）、国防军工（+1.65%）。 转债市场共计 17 个行业上涨，涨幅前三位行业为通信（+3.75%）、国防军工 （+2.65%）、机械设备（+1.63%）；跌幅前三位行业为煤炭（-1.04%）、有色金 属（-0.90%）、纺织服饰（-0.77%）。 (1) 收盘价：大周期环比-0.20%、制造环比+0.88%、科技环比+1.97%、大消费 环比-0.27%、大金融环比+0.02%。 (2) 转股溢价率：大周期环比+0.59pct、制造环比+0.3pct、科技环比-0.13pct、 大消费环比+0.88pct、大金融环比+0.071pct。 转债市场日度跟踪 20260127 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债缩量上涨，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.15%、上证综指环比上涨 0.18%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.09%、创业板指环比上涨 ...

核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20260127 规模指数中中证 500 指数表现较好，板块指数中科创 100 指数表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 成长指数表现较好。国防军工、电 子、通信、传媒、机械行业表现较好，煤炭、农林牧渔、综合金融、钢铁、 医药行业表现较差。培育钻石、超硬材料、先进封装、光芯片、存储器等概 念表现较好，锂电电解液、六氟磷酸锂、动物疫苗、锂电隔膜、珠宝等概念 表现较差。 市场情绪：20260127 收盘时有 59 只股票涨停，有 13 只股票跌停。昨日涨 停股票今日高开高走，收盘收益为 2.58%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为 -0.43%。今日封板率 71%，较前日提升 10%，连板率 19%，较前日提升 3%。 市场资金流向：截至 20260126 两融余额为 27254 亿元，其中融资余额 27080 亿元，融券余额 174 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 9.5%。 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月27日 金融工程日报 沪指震荡收涨，培育钻石概念拉升、黄金股再度大涨 折溢价：20260126 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是国证 2000ET ...

观点评述：穿越情绪迷雾，拥抱企业本质 沃伦·巴菲特曾精辟地指出："一个投资者如果想成功，必须将两种能力结合在一起，一是判断优秀企业 的能力，一是将自己的思维和行为与市场中弥漫的极易传染的情绪隔离开来的能力。" 这句箴言犹如一 盏穿越市场迷雾的明灯，精准揭示了投资成功的双重基石。这两者相辅相成，缺一不可，共同构成了价 值投资最坚实的护城河。 板块方面，电子（+2.27%）、通信、国防军工领涨，成为市场焦点；而煤炭（-2.27%）、农林牧渔等 传统板块则深度调整。港股同样强劲，恒生A股专精特新企业指数暴涨3.43%。 今日行情：科技浪潮引领"结构牛"，产业信号点燃市场激情 驱动这场结构性行情的核心催化剂，源自一则重磅产业消息：存储芯片巨头SK海力士将独家向微软供 应最新HBM3E芯片。HBM作为AI算力的关键"高速内存"，此订单被视为对技术路径与供应链地位的权 威认证，直接点燃了A股存储芯片及AI算力产业链的投资热情，东芯股份等多只概念股大幅上涨。市场 风险偏好显著提升，资金正从防御性高股息资产向进攻性科技成长赛道进行战略切换。 1月27日，A股与港股市场呈现典型的"结构牛"特征。主要指数虽集体收涨，但内部分化剧 ...