Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatility / Polysilicon: Volatility [1] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices continue to decline, with some small factories planning further production cuts, but partial resumption in Sichuan and potential resumption of large Xinjiang factories. Demand remains weak, and future spot prices are not optimistic [1][9]. - Polysilicon prices first rose and then fell. After the production - cut meeting, no clear plan was given. The market is trading based on reality. The company has lowered the production schedule for May and June, and polysilicon is expected to reduce inventory [1][11]. - For investment, it is not recommended to go long on industrial silicon on the left - hand side, and consider short - selling on rebounds. For polysilicon, an arbitrage strategy is recommended, focusing on positive spread opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 [2][14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2507 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 95 yuan/ton to 8145 yuan/ton. SMM spot prices of East China oxygen - blowing 553 and Xinjiang 99 silicon also declined. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon decreased by 980 yuan/ton to 36850 yuan/ton, and the N - type re - feeding material transaction price also dropped [7][8]. 2. Industrial Silicon May Partially Resume Production, Polysilicon Focus on Positive Spread Opportunities Industrial Silicon - This week, industrial silicon futures rebounded and then fell. Zhou production was 6.92 tons, a decrease of 3.94%. Social inventory increased by 0.3 tons, and sample factory inventory decreased by 1.73 tons. Demand is weak, and future prices are not optimistic [9]. Organic Silicon - This week, organic silicon prices declined slightly. The overall enterprise start - up rate was about 58.95%, an increase of 3.17pct. Zhou production was 3.90 tons, an increase of 3.17%, and inventory was 4.69 tons, a decrease of 5.06%. Short - term prices may rebound slightly, but the long - term supply surplus problem remains [9][10]. Polysilicon - This week, polysilicon futures prices first rose and then fell. The company has lowered the production schedule for May to about 9.3 tons and for June to 9 tons. Polysilicon is expected to reduce inventory in May and June. The average spot selling price has fallen below the cash cost line, and the production - cut action is still being negotiated [11]. Silicon Wafers - This week, silicon wafer prices continued to fall. As of May 15th, factory inventory was 19.44GW, an increase of 1.31GW. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [12]. Battery Cells - This week, battery cell prices continued to fall. In May, the production schedule was 58 - 59GW. Inventory has accumulated, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [13]. Components - This week, component prices continued to fall. In May, the production schedule was about 54GW, and the expected production schedule for June is 50GW. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the low - price range [13]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Industrial silicon: Do not recommend going long on the left - hand side, consider short - selling on rebounds, and pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Recommend an arbitrage strategy, focus on positive spread opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508, and continue to pay attention to supply - side changes and spot conditions [2][15]. 4. Hot News Compilation - Ruoqiang County's second - phase 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon compliance capacity project: The industrial silicon indicator of Fuhai County will be transferred to Xinjiang TBEA Loulan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. for project construction [16]. - Hongyuan Green Energy plans to transfer 27.0737% of the equity of Inner Mongolia Xinyuan for 1.245 billion yuan to optimize resource allocation and focus on core business [16]. - Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology's 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project is under publicity, with an investment of 1.495 billion yuan [17]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - The report provides various data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including price, production, inventory, and profit data [6]

Group 1 - The organic silicon concept rose by 1.92%, ranking 9th among concept sectors, with 28 stocks increasing in value, including Jitai Co., which hit the daily limit, and Yian Technology, Yuanxiang New Materials, and Huami New Materials, which rose by 14.40%, 11.08%, and 10.24% respectively [1] - The top gainers in the organic silicon sector included Yian Technology with a net inflow of 384 million yuan, followed by Zhongqi New Materials, Xingfa Group, and Xin'an Co., with net inflows of 87.99 million yuan, 76.39 million yuan, and 56.08 million yuan respectively [1][2] - The main funds' net inflow rates for Xin'an Co., Xingfa Group, and Yian Technology were 22.24%, 19.35%, and 16.89% respectively, indicating strong investor interest [2] Group 2 - The organic silicon sector saw a net inflow of 602 million yuan today, with 20 stocks receiving net inflows, and 6 stocks exceeding 10 million yuan in net inflows [1] - The top stocks by net inflow in the organic silicon sector were Yian Technology, Zhongqi New Materials, and Xingfa Group, with respective net inflows of 384 million yuan, 87.99 million yuan, and 76.39 million yuan [1][2] - The overall market performance showed a mixed trend, with some sectors like PEEK materials gaining 3.40% while others like the horse racing concept declining by 1.41% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon have stabilized, and the futures market has rebounded this week. The supply side is under pressure, and cost support has weakened recently. With the approaching of the wet season in the southwest, there is a possibility of production resumption. The demand side is mainly based on rigid procurement, and consumption remains relatively weak. Polysilicon may further reduce production, and organic silicon enterprises face high cost pressure. The overall industry inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are still relatively high, and attention should be paid to the production resumption in the southwest wet season and the impact of macro - sentiment [2] - The recent polysilicon futures market is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and warehouse receipt delivery, resulting in intensified market fluctuations. The increase in warehouse receipts yesterday was significant, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of this increase [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 15, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2506 opened at 8450 yuan/ton and closed at 8410 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 124014 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 15, 2025, was 66433 lots, a change of - 98 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 10300 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton. The prices of mainstream silicon in many other regions also remained stable, while the price of 97 silicon decreased in some cases [1] - The consumption side showed signs of improvement. The domestic high - temperature rubber downstream and terminal enterprises started to purchase. The main reason was that the volume of foreign trade orders increased due to the reduction of trade war tariffs, the domestic downstream production started to increase, the willingness to purchase raw materials strengthened, and the trading volume recovered [1] Strategy - Not provided in the content Risk - Not provided in the content Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 15, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures maintained a wide - range fluctuation, opening at 38100 yuan/ton and closing at 37920 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.68% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 37985 lots (44692 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 136753 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 37.00 - 40.50 yuan/kg (- 0.75 yuan/kg), and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg [4] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the silicon wafer inventory also significantly decreased. The newly - counted polysilicon inventory was 25.00 (a month - on - month change of - 2.27%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW (a month - on - month change of 7.22%), the weekly polysilicon output was 21400.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 0.00%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW (a month - on - month change of 0.50%) [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were provided. For example, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.95 yuan/piece (- 0.03 yuan/piece), and the price of efficient PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell for hedging at high prices [4] - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None Risk - Production resumption in the southwest and production suspension in the northwest [4] - Changes in the operation of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Industry self - discipline's impact on upstream and downstream operations [7] - The impact of futures listing on the spot market [7] - The impact of capital sentiment [7] - Policy disturbances [7] - Macro and capital sentiment [3] - The operation situation of organic silicon enterprises [3]

Group 1 - The launch of Huawei's smart door lock during the JD-Tmall 618 event highlights the emphasis on high-quality three-proof paint, drawing market attention to its application [1] - Three-proof paint serves as a reliable protective barrier for electronic products, offering excellent insulation, moisture resistance, and durability against environmental factors [1][2] - The global market for three-proof paint is approximately $10 billion, with China's demand expected to reach 8 billion yuan by 2025, indicating a growing market opportunity [3] Group 2 - The use of PFAS materials in circuit board manufacturing is facing increasing restrictions due to their environmental persistence, with regulations being implemented in both the US and China [2] - Runhe Materials, a leading company in the organic silicon sector, has developed a non-toxic three-proof paint that mimics the properties of fluorinated compounds, positioning itself favorably in the market [2][3] - Runhe Materials' three-proof paint products are suitable for various applications, including consumer electronics, home appliances, data centers, automotive, and medical devices, meeting diverse protection needs [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price is weakly stable, and the futures market rebounds after a decline, mainly influenced by macro - sentiment. The supply side has cost pressure and some production cuts, but raw material prices are falling. The demand side is weak, and the cost support is further weakened. The total industry inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are relatively high [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the futures market continues to repair upward, and the spot market price stabilizes with some increases. Under the background of industry self - restricted production, polysilicon production remains low, inventory is falling, and there is a possibility of further production cuts. The demand side also shows signs of weakness, and the number of warehouse receipts is low [3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On May 12, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded after a decline. The main contract 2506 opened at 8275 yuan/ton and closed at 8320 yuan/ton, a change of 0.24% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2505 had a position of 171,625 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 12 was 67,097 lots, a decrease of 241 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon is weakly stable. The prices of various grades of silicon have decreased. The silicon coal prices in major production areas such as Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi have dropped, weakening the cost support [1]. - **Consumption Side**: The organic silicon DMC quotation is 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The recent trading volume is average, and manufacturers have high inventory pressure, so they lower the price to accept orders [2]. - **Strategy**: For industrial silicon, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Data**: On May 12, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures continued to repair upward, opening at 38,100 yuan/ton and closing at 38,450 yuan/ton, a 2.49% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 69,417 lots, and the trading volume was 322,808 lots [3]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable. The prices of various types of polysilicon remain unchanged. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers has decreased, and the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers has also declined [5]. - **Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components**: The prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are provided, and most of them remain stable [5][6]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, under industry self - restriction, polysilicon production remains low, and inventory is falling. On the demand side, the battery production rate and total output of Chinese enterprises in April and May are given, and some photovoltaic component enterprises have plans to further reduce production [7]. - **Strategy**: For polysilicon, the short - term strategy for the 2506 contract is to be cautiously bullish [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trend of "anti-involution" in various industries as reflected in the capital expenditure to depreciation ratio, indicating a shift towards more conservative investment strategies in response to market conditions [1]. Group 1: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry has seen a significant reduction in the capital expenditure to depreciation ratio, dropping from 5.17 in 2022 to 2.37 in 2023, and further to a historical low of 1.77 in 2024, indicating a controlled expansion of capacity [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, major companies like CATL reported a 6.19% revenue growth, while EVE Energy experienced a 37.34% increase, confirming the industry's recovery [2]. Group 2: Silicon Material and Wafer Industry - The silicon material and wafer industry has drastically reduced its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio from 4.1 in 2023 to 1.94 in 2024, marking a historical low due to significant losses [4][5]. - Leading company Tongwei Co. reported an 18.58% revenue decline in Q1 2025, with a negative gross margin of -2.88%, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry [5]. Group 3: Special Steel Industry - The special steel industry saw its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio decrease from 0.93 in 2023 to 0.57 in 2024, suggesting a contraction in capacity but still maintaining profitability among major players [7]. - In 2024, China imported 2.555 million tons of special steel, valued at $5.248 billion, highlighting ongoing demand in high-end steel products [7]. Group 4: Organic Silicon Industry - The organic silicon industry experienced a decline in its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio from 6.98 in 2023 to 1.76 in 2024, indicating a slowdown in capacity expansion [10]. - In Q1 2025, leading company Hoshine Silicon reported a gross margin drop to 14.62%, the lowest in its history, reflecting the industry's ongoing struggles [10]. Group 5: Titanium Dioxide Industry - The titanium dioxide industry faced low prices in 2024, with a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 0.78, indicating a contraction in capacity [12]. - Leading company Longbai Group showed signs of stabilization in Q1 2025, with a slight recovery in gross margin, although demand remains uncertain due to external factors [12]. Group 6: Coking Industry - The coking industry is experiencing significant challenges, with a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 1.18 in 2024, despite being at a historical low price point [16]. - Leading company Shanxi Coking has reported negative gross margins for ten consecutive quarters, indicating persistent difficulties in the sector [16]. Group 7: Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber industry reported a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 1.45 in 2024, down from 2.3 in the previous year, suggesting a nearing of historical lows [17]. - Major player China Jushi saw a substantial increase in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, indicating a clear recovery trend [17]. Group 8: Inorganic Salt Industry - The inorganic salt industry faced continuous price declines, with a capital expenditure to depreciation ratio of 1.06 in 2024, indicating a contraction in capacity [21]. - Leading company Sinochem International reported a gross margin of 9.48% in Q1 2025, the lowest since its listing, reflecting ongoing challenges [21]. Group 9: Inverter Industry - The inverter industry has seen a significant drop in its capital expenditure to depreciation ratio from previous years, now at 4.43 in 2024, indicating a slowdown in expansion [23]. - The industry is experiencing a divergence, with leading companies like Sungrow continuing to perform well, while smaller firms face losses [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices are both in a weak position. The supply - demand imbalance persists, with supply not expected to decrease in May, demand lacking significant changes, and inventory levels rising. The market is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend before the long holiday, and attention should be paid to the potential pressure of increased production during the wet season [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures showed weak performance. The Si2506 contract closed at 8,540 yuan/ton, down 2.68%. The trading volume was 199,942 lots, and the open interest was 195,153 lots, with a net increase of 7,060 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon was also weak. The price of 553 in Sichuan and Yunnan was 9,500 yuan/ton. The price of 421 in Sichuan was 10,850 yuan/ton, 10,350 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 10,400 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, and 10,500 yuan/ton in Xinjiang [4]. - **Future Outlook**: In the fourth week of April, the production volume was 72,000 tons, still above the equilibrium level, and there is no expected supply reduction in May. The demand side remains unchanged, with the demand for polysilicon at 108,000 tons, and organic silicon enterprises reducing production to support prices. Other demands are stable, and the oversupply situation shows no sign of improvement. The combined futures and spot inventory has reached 752,800 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has climbed to 2.51. The losses have not had a significant negative impact on the supply side, and the fundamental driving force is still weak. The market is expected to remain weakly volatile before the long holiday [4]. 3.2 Market News - On April 29, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 69,417 lots, a net decrease of 50 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - On April 22, 2025, Hesheng Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. released its 2024 annual report. The company's operating income was 26.692 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.41%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 1.74 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.64% [5]. - Shandong Dongyue Organic Silicon Material Co., Ltd. recently released its Q1 2025 financial report. The operating income decreased by 15.68% to 1,202,001,050.99 yuan compared with 1,425,465,566.20 yuan in the same period of the previous year, indicating market competition pressure [5]. - On April 28, the reference price of organic silicon DMC on the Business Society was 11,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.89% compared with the beginning of the month (14,400 yuan/ton) [5].

Group 1 - The organic silicon concept index rose by 2.09%, ranking 10th among concept sectors, with 33 stocks increasing in value, including Zhongqi New Materials and Sanfu Co., which hit the daily limit [1] - Notable gainers in the organic silicon sector included Huami New Materials, Xiangyuan New Materials, and Silicon Treasure Technology, which rose by 7.92%, 6.97%, and 6.92% respectively [1] - The stocks with the largest declines included ST Hongda, Hesheng Silicon Industry, and Fuxiang Pharmaceutical, which fell by 5.13%, 2.62%, and 2.09% respectively [1] Group 2 - The organic silicon sector saw a net inflow of 142 million yuan, with 14 stocks receiving net inflows, and 5 stocks attracting over 10 million yuan [2] - Sanfu Co. led the net inflow with 56.01 million yuan, followed by Yian Technology and Silicon Treasure Technology with net inflows of 55.80 million yuan and 51.88 million yuan respectively [2] - The top net inflow ratios were recorded by Sanfu Co. at 27.30%, followed by Huanxing Technology at 13.89% and Yian Technology at 12.13% [3] Group 3 - The trading volume and turnover rates for the top stocks in the organic silicon sector were significant, with Sanfu Co. showing a turnover rate of 3.78% and a price increase of 9.98% [3] - Other notable stocks included Yian Technology with a 5.92% increase and a turnover rate of 6.91%, and Silicon Treasure Technology with a 6.92% increase and a turnover rate of 8.53% [3][4] - Decliners in the sector included ST Hongda, which dropped by 5.13% with a turnover rate of 0.05%, and Hesheng Silicon Industry, which fell by 2.62% with a turnover rate of 0.28% [5]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and the CSI 300 Chemical Index reported 2064.08 points, with a decline of 7.57% in the last month, 6.98% in the last three months, and 6.77% year-to-date [1] - The CSI 300 Index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors [1] - The top ten weights in the CSI 300 Chemical Index are: Wanhua Chemical (23.08%), Salt Lake Industry (13.6%), Baofeng Energy (7.79%), Juhua Co. (7.6%), Hengli Petrochemical (7.22%), Satellite Chemical (6.88%), Hualu Hengsheng (6.64%), Zangge Mining (6.38%), Longbai Group (6.1%), and Rongsheng Petrochemical (5.49%) [1] Group 2 - In terms of industry composition within the CSI 300 Chemical Index, other chemical raw materials account for 39.09%, polyurethane for 23.08%, potassium fertilizer for 19.98%, fluorochemical for 7.60%, titanium dioxide for 6.10%, and organic silicon for 4.15% [2] - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the CSI 300 Index samples or significant events affecting sample companies [2]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows "weak reality and weak expectation" with weak consumption, high inventory pressure, and the spot market may continue weak shock in the short term [2][3] - The polysilicon market has weakening demand, high inventory, slow de - stocking, and the 2506 contract is cautiously bullish in the short term, with upstream enterprises considering selling hedging on rallies [7][8] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On April 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract 2506 opened at 8780 yuan/ton and closed at 8800 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2505 main contract was 188,093 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 69,417 lots, a decrease of 85 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon continued to decline. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9400 - 9700 (- 50) yuan/ton. Although some silicon plants reduced production or had maintenance due to losses, the expected production capacity in the southwest region during the wet season would gradually be released, and the supply pressure was not significantly relieved [1][2] - **Demand Side**: The demand was weak. The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon maintained low operating rates, and downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing. The organic silicon DMC quotation was 11000 - 11800 (- 200) yuan/ton, and the overall operating rate of monomer enterprises was expected to decline [1][2] Strategy The industry's consumption is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. The spot market lacks positive drivers in the short term and may continue to oscillate weakly [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On April 28, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures fell sharply, opening at 38,390 yuan/ton and closing at 37,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.05% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 55,092 lots, and the trading volume was 80,862 lots [5] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 25.90 (a month - on - month change of 3.19%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.53GW (a month - on - month change of 7.19%). The weekly polysilicon output was 22,800 tons (a month - on - month change of 2.24%), and the silicon wafer output was 13.38GW (a month - on - month change of - 1.40%) [5][6] Strategy - In the short term, the 2506 contract is cautiously bullish. Upstream enterprises should consider selling hedging on rallies if there is a significant rebound. - For options, consider buying a small amount of out - of - the - money call options [8]