ljis 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/11 | | | 指标 | 5/9 | 6/3 | 6/6 | 6/9 | 6/10 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11450 | 10875 | 11300 | 11270 | 11230 | -40 | રે રેસ્ટ | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 24120 | 31557 | 24880 | 22981 | 21708 | -1273 | -9849 | | | 语言 | 主力合约成交量 | 110734 | 133366 | 159507 | 104086 | 104597 | 511 | -28769 | | | | 仓単数量 | 11630 | 12080 | 11800 | 11630 | 11570 | -60 | -510 | | | | 虚实比 | 10.37 | 13.06 | 10.54 | 9.88 | 9.38 | 0 | -4 | | | | 顺丁基差 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to sufficient supply of raw material butadiene, the cost support for cis - butadiene rubber production has weakened. Affected by weak cost and bearish macro - economic expectations, traders are selling at a loss. Last week, producers' inventory increased slightly while traders' inventory decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline last week. Although the output of some plants will gradually return to normal as the maintenance enterprises restart, the overall order performance of tire enterprises is average and the inventory clearance is slow, which restricts the increase of capacity utilization rate. The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 yuan/ton in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 21,708 lots, a decrease of 1,273 lots. The 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber was - 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 5,720 tons, a decrease of 60 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 67.04 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.57 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 65.29 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.71 US dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 567.88 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.38 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market was 9,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 147,800 tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.02%, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 47%, an increase of 0.91 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 67.25%, a decrease of 6.29 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 34,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons; the producers' inventory was 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons; the traders' inventory was 5,680 tons, a decrease of 680 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.86%, a decrease of 4.39 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.47%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of June 5th, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 34,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period (May 28th, 2025), a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. As of June 5th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.05%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.12 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94 percentage points. Due to the "Dragon Boat Festival holiday", some enterprises carried out shutdown maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2].

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Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: June 8, 2025 - Analyst: Yang Honghan - Analyst Qualification Number: Z0021541 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a rebound, but there is still significant fundamental pressure in the medium term [2][4] Summary by Section 1. Market Judgment - **Futures Static Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,100 - 11,700 yuan/ton. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is around 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton. When the main BR2507 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the Shandong market price, there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity. The theoretical bottom valuation is 11,100 yuan/ton [4] - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices are stable. Domestic butadiene short - term trading has improved, with prices oscillating around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Supply - side开工率 is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month. Short - term imports have increased. Demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains. Inventories at production enterprises have slightly increased, while port inventories have decreased. Overall, butadiene is expected to oscillate at a low level [4] - **Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: The processing profit of butadiene rubber is approaching the break - even point. Supply - side开工率 is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month. Demand remains high this week, and substitution demand supports the total demand. Inventories are at a high level year - on - year. The fundamentals have weak driving force, and spot prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - **Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, on Thursday, due to the China - US leaders' call, the expectation of economic improvement increased, and the rubber sector rebounded at a low - valuation level. Butadiene rubber, as a low - valuation variety in the rubber sector and with the requirement of warrant cancellation on June 30, had a large rebound. In the medium term, the main contradiction in the market is the weak demand in the rubber sector. With sufficient supply of natural and synthetic rubber, weak demand drives the fundamentals downward [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term rebound, medium - term short - selling on rallies; the spread between NR - BR is expected to narrow [4] 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Supply - Side Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than downstream industries at certain stages. The total new capacity in 2021 was 580,000 tons, 480,000 tons in 2022, 570,000 tons in 2023, 480,000 tons in 2024, and 860,000 tons are expected in 2025 [9] - **Supply - Side开工率**: The current butadiene industry开工率 is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month due to the concentrated maintenance of some ethylene plants [4] - **Supply - Side Imports**: Short - term imports of butadiene have increased [4] - **Demand - Side Capacity of Downstream Products**: The production capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expanding. For example, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Zhejiang Chuanhua, and other companies have new production capacities coming online. The production capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased significantly in 2024 and 2025 [18][27] - **Demand - Side Operation of Downstream Products**: The operation of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber plants varies, with some running at full capacity, some reducing loads, and some shutting down. The开工率 and profitability of ABS and SBS also show different trends [23][28] - **Inventory**: Butadiene production enterprise inventories have slightly increased, while port inventories have decreased [4] 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Production**: The weekly production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows certain fluctuations. The开工率 of production enterprises varies, with some running normally, some reducing loads, and some shutting down [37][38] - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost and profit of butadiene rubber have changed over time, and the gross profit margin also shows different trends [39][40][41] - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber show certain fluctuations [42][43] - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber are at different levels and show different trends [48][50] - **Butadiene Rubber Demand - Side Tires**: The inventory and开工率 of Shandong's all - steel and semi - steel tires show different trends, which have an impact on the demand for butadiene rubber [52][53]

6月6日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，合成橡胶期货主力合约开盘报10960.0元/吨，今日盘中高 位震荡运行；截至发稿，合成橡胶主力最高触及11395.0元，下方探低10960.0元，涨幅达2.91%附近。 后市来看，合成橡胶期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 西南期货分析称，原料端，丁二烯价格回调，合成橡胶加工亏损扩大；供应端，中国高顺顺丁橡胶行业 周度产能利用率回落至73%附近，同比处于偏高水平需求端，轮胎企业成品库存高企，出口订单受关税 压制，内需受制于基建投资放缓，购难有增量；库存端，厂家库存环比累库，同比处于偏高水平，贸易 商库存环比累库，同比处于偏高水平。总结：等待企稳参与反弹。 6月4日当周，合成橡胶社会库存录得3.4万吨，较上一周减少0.05万吨，减少幅度达1.45%；最近一个 月，合成橡胶社会库存累计增加0.04万吨，增加幅度为1.19%。 瑞达期货（002961）指出，近期顺丁橡胶生产成本小幅下降但仍存在较大亏损，生产延续大幅亏损导致 部分民营企业或存进一步降负可能，成本面弱势及宏观经济预期偏空影响下，贸易商积极倒挂出货，本 周生产企业库存小幅提升，贸易企业库存小幅下降。需求方 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recently, the production cost of cis - butadiene rubber has decreased slightly, but there are still large losses. The continued large - scale losses in production may lead some private enterprises to further reduce their loads. Under the influence of weak cost and bearish macro - economic expectations, traders are actively selling at a loss. This week, the inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises has decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Most tire enterprises' devices are operating stably, but some enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of the month, and a few enterprises have production cuts, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may still decline in the short term. The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 26,276, a decrease of 1,407. The 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber is 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 5,950 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,300 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,400 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 64.86 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.77 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 62.85 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.56 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 562.63 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 780 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,150 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,350 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.3%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 28,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation is 46.09%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.54%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 894 yuan/ton, a decrease of 279 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 28,100 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,360 tons, an increase of 560 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.25%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.8%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 41.96 days, a decrease of 0.9 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 46.22 days, a decrease of 0.78 days [2] Industry News - As of June 5, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 34,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period (May 28, 2025), a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.58 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.80%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. In May 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market is about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market is about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025 - 06 - 04 [1] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03139610 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Recently, the sentiment on the raw material side has gradually subsided. The production cost of cis - butadiene rubber has decreased slightly but there are still large losses. The continuous large - scale losses in production may lead some private enterprises to further reduce their production loads. The overall supply is expected to continue to decrease as the full - scale overhaul of Yanshan Petrochemical starts gradually. The prices in the cis - butadiene rubber spot market have continued to decline and it's still difficult to attract trading. Last week, the inventories of cis - butadiene production enterprises and trading enterprises both increased. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Most tire enterprises' equipment ran smoothly, some enterprises had maintenance plans at the end of the month, and a few enterprises reduced production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans recently, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may continue to decline in the short term. The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is not clearly shown in the data table. The position of the 220 main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,095, with a decrease of 3,874. The 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 6,050 tons, with a decrease of 70 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,400 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,300 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,350 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,400 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 305 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 320 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 65.63 US dollars/barrel, with no change; WTI crude oil is 63.41 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 561.63 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,150 US dollars/ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 780 US dollars/ton, with no change; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,350 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 350 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is unchanged, the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.3%, with an increase of 1.57 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 28,500 tons, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 46.09%, with a decrease of 1.19 percentage points [2] 3.4 Production and Inventory of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 12.15 tons, with a decrease of 0.68 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.54%, with a decrease of 2.03 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 279 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 894 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.45 tons, with an increase of 0.17 tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 1,100 tons, and the weekly trader inventory is 6,360 tons, with an increase of 560 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.25%, with an increase of 0.03 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.8%, with a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 5,539 million pieces, with a decrease of 61 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 1,308 million pieces, with a decrease of 427 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 41.96 days, with a decrease of 0.9 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.22 days, with a decrease of 0.78 days [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of May 29, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.45 tons, an increase of 0.17 tons compared with the previous period (20250521), a month - on - month increase of 5.06%. The raw material market was weak this period, but the overall domestic supply was still sufficient. The bearish sentiment of industry players continued to rise. Coupled with the weakening of the natural rubber market, the price of the cis - butadiene rubber spot market continued to decline and there was still no trading follow - up. The inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both increased. As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.58 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.80%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. Most tire enterprises' equipment ran smoothly during the period, some enterprises had maintenance plans at the end of the month, and a few enterprises reduced production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises month - on - month. In May 2025, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 5% compared with April this year, and an increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. Cumulatively, from January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [2]

700000 17000 BR主力合约盘面概览 BR价格结构 16000 6000000 12000 11800 15000 500000 11600 14000 400000 l 1400 11200 13000 300000 11000 12000 200000 10800 10600 11000 1000000 10400 10000 10200 - 06合约 07合约 08合约 现货 -- 6/3 -- 6/2 --- 5/30 --- 5/27 --- 5/2 丁苯-BR基差 顺丁-BR基差 BR06-07 2500 1000 - 800 2000 600 500 1 200 400 1000 200 500 0 -500 -20Q -50Q -400 -1000 -1000 -600 -1500 - -800 -1500 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 · 2023 - - 2024 - - 2025 顺丁山东市场价(贴近下游) 顺丁浙江传化市场价(贴近现货) BR07-08 18000 18000 1000 800 16000 1 6000 6 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

顺丁出口利润(东南亚) 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1 000 0 -1000 e -2000 ·2022 -- 2020 2021 - 2024 2025 2023 BD 卫星化学丁二烯纸货结构 东明石化丁二烯竞拍情况 1500 13000 14000 800 700 13000 1000 12000 600 12000 500 11000 500 11000 400 10000 0 300 10000 200 -500 9000 9000 100 -1000 8000 O 8000 024/12/18 025/5/28 025/1/15 025/3/12 025/4/16 025/5/21 2025/4/9 2025/1/8 025/2/19 025/4/23 025/5/14 025/3/19 025/3/19 025/5/14 025/5/21 025/1/29 2025/2/± 025/2/12 2025/3/: 025/3/26 2025/4/2 025/4/9 125/4/30 2025/1/8 025/1/15 025/1/29 025/2/12 025/2/19 025 ...