贸易商基差 300 200 100 0 12/1 10/1 -100 -200 山东基差(+80) 华乐基差(镇江库) 华南基差(佛山库) U乐县差 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 21 3/1 10/1 11/1 -100 1 1 -200 -300 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/7 山东基差 (+80) 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 2020 2022 2019 2021 -2023 - 2024 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 11/1 -200 -300 s 加安期货 周度变化 5 75 35 =1 -7 1 -135 61663 -3490 -2430 -1.5 -150 -130 -60 -100 -28 41 2025 124 沥青早报 -2019 -2024 -2021 -2022 2020 =2023 -2025 2019 -2024 -2025 -2021 =2023 ·2020 -2022 BU12-03 BU12-01 200 300 250 150 200 150 10 ...

Group 1 - The establishment of Anhui Baoli New Materials Trading Co., Ltd. marks Baoli International's strategic expansion into the Anhui market and the enhancement of its asphalt business network [1][3] - The new company will leverage Baoli International's resources, technical expertise, and experience in the asphalt sector to optimize the supply chain in Anhui and surrounding areas [3] - Baoli International aims to localize its operations and professionalize its expansion in the Anhui market, which is expected to significantly improve market responsiveness and service capabilities, thereby unlocking greater business growth potential [3] Group 2 - The move is part of Baoli International's broader strategy to solidify its industry advantages in the asphalt business following the acquisition by Chizhou Investment Holding Group [1][2] - The company is positioned to engage in asphalt asset investments, major project bidding, and daily market operations in the Anhui region through its subsidiary's independent legal entity status [3] - This initiative is seen as a critical step in establishing a stable foundation for exploring innovative avenues and enhancing new production capabilities [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The asphalt market is showing a trend of fluctuating downward. The supply side has a slightly increased production rate but is still at a relatively low level in recent years, and the expected production in November has decreased. The downstream industry's start - up rate has mostly increased, but is restricted by funds and weather. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries continues to decline and remains at a record low. The crude oil price fluctuates, and the forward low - price resources of refineries are released, causing the asphalt futures price to show a weak and fluctuating trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The asphalt production rate last week increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% month - on - month, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected domestic asphalt production in November is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and a decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year [1]. - Most of the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries increased last week. The start - up rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% month - on - month, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but is restricted by funds and weather [1]. - The shipment volume of the main refineries in North China increased significantly last week. The national shipment volume increased by 13.98% month - on - month to 331,300 tons, at a neutral level. The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly and is still at the lowest level in recent years [1]. - The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States basically met market expectations. OPEC + decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The crude oil price fluctuated. The forward low - price resources of refineries were released intensively, and the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a neutral level. The spot price followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price showed a weak and fluctuating trend [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 2.05% to 3,109 yuan/ton today, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,103 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3,167 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 1,885 to 201,642 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to - 9 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou resumed asphalt production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% month - on - month, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - From January to September, the investment in national highway construction decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but is still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% in January - August 2025 but still in a negative growth situation. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, continuing to decline from 2.0% in January - August 2025 [4]. - As of the week of October 31, most of the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries increased. The start - up rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% month - on - month, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, and is restricted by funds and weather [4]. - From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to September 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. The new social financing in September was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less year - on - year due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. - As of the week of October 31, the inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week of October 24 and is still at the lowest level in recent years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low levels [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contracts of SHFE fuel oil futures and INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose at night. The FU and LU prices fluctuated weakly following the crude oil trend, with an unclear short - term trend. The high - low sulfur spread rebounded from the bottom, indicating a marginal change in the strength - weakness pattern [1]. - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have loosened recently, with the crack spread and monthly spread weakening and relatively abundant supply. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the restart of Dangote refinery's RFCC unit has relieved local supply pressure, and the maintenance of Kuwait's Azur refinery has led to a phased decline in shipments. The estimated low - sulfur fuel oil shipments from Kuwait in November are 0 tons, compared with 55500 tons in October. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has certain short - term repair conditions, and the high - low sulfur spread is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.15% at 2731 yuan/ton at night, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.58% at 3296 yuan/ton [1]. - The high - low sulfur spread has rebounded from the bottom, and the fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have loosened with relatively abundant supply. For low - sulfur fuel oil, local supply pressure has been relieved, and Kuwait's shipments are expected to decline in November [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish; Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2]. - Cross - variety strategy: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low levels [2]. Figures - There are multiple figures showing the prices, spreads, closing prices, and trading volumes of Singapore's high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot, swaps, and domestic fuel oil futures [3][4][11][13]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The recent trends in fuel oil supply and demand indicate a mixed outlook, with low-sulfur fuel oil supply tightening while high-sulfur fuel oil remains stable, influenced by geopolitical factors and refinery operations [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - As of November 4, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts at 45,730 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, while fuel oil warehouse receipts stood at 46,460 tons, also unchanged [1]. - In October, there was a notable decrease in high-sulfur fuel oil exports from Russia (-570,000 tons) and Iran (-200,000 tons), while Iraq (+650,000 tons) and Mexico (+370,000 tons) saw increases, indicating a slight contraction in overall export volumes [1]. - The CEO of Saudi Aramco noted that fuel demand in the U.S. and Europe is supporting healthy refining margins [1]. Group 2: Market Insights - According to Everbright Futures, the recent decline in Russian gasoline and diesel exports, along with maintenance at Kuwait's Al-Zour refinery, has led to an increase in the diesel crack spread in Asia, potentially tightening low-sulfur supply [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil inventories remain relatively ample, with stable inflows from Russia expected to continue into Asia. November's overall supply of fuel oil in Singapore is anticipated to remain sufficient [2]. - Demand for low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is lacking momentum for growth, while high-sulfur fuel oil demand remains stable. However, strong refining margins for high-sulfur fuel oil may suppress refinery raw material demand [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Southwest Futures indicated that the recovery of fuel oil supply in Singapore is bearish for fuel oil prices, while sanctions on Russia and reduced trade tensions between China and the U.S. could support prices [3]. - The strategy suggests focusing on short-selling opportunities in the main fuel oil contracts [3].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 4 一、沥青行情概览 表1. 昨日行情概览 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.3174%，环比增加 0.239个百分点，全国样本企业出货33.13万吨，环比增加13.98%,样本企业产量为 55.6万吨，环比增加0.72%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.8万吨，环比减少10.05%, 本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.5%，环比增加0.01个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；建筑沥青开工率 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The asphalt market is showing a trend of oscillating downward. The supply side has a slightly increased production rate but a significant reduction in planned production for November. The downstream industry's production rate has mostly increased, and the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries has continued to decline slightly, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt production rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt planned production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 16.9%, and a decrease of 274,000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 11.0% [1]. - Last week, the production rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The production rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but restricted by funds and weather [1]. - Last week, the main refineries in North China maintained stable production and fulfilled contracts for shipment, with a significant increase in shipment volume. The national shipment volume increased by 13.98% week-on-week to 331,300 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly week-on-week, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The production of Sinochem Quanzhou and some main refineries is intermittent, and the asphalt output will slightly decrease [1]. - Projects in many northern regions are rushing to complete work, and the market is actively shipping, but funds are still restricted. In the south, there is more inquiry for low-priced goods. Recently, the market has digested the news of sanctions on Russian oil. The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not fundamentally changed. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The crude oil price is oscillating. The long-term resources of refineries are being released intensively. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a neutral level. The spot price has followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 2.00% to 3,193 yuan per ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,189 yuan per ton, and the highest price was 3,245 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 892 to 206,960 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong has dropped to 3,200 yuan per ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract has risen to 7 yuan per ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou have resumed asphalt production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the actual cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was -2.7%, a slight rebound from -3.3% from January - August 2025 but still in a cumulative year-on-year negative growth situation. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased from 2.0% in January - August 2025 to 1.1% [4]. - As of the week ending October 31, the production rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The production rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - From the perspective of the stock of social financing, from January to September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing was 8.7%, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. In September, the newly added social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. - As of the week ending October 31, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week ending October 24, and the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical raw materials index increased by 3.15%, while the chemical machinery index decreased by 0.71%. The pharmaceutical index rose by 2.38%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index saw a significant increase of 5.83% [1] - In the oil sector, the oil processing index rose by 2.59%, the oil extraction index increased by 7.68%, and the oil trading index saw a rise of 7.1% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices experienced a slight decline, with the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settling at $60.98 per barrel, down 0.85% from October 24. The Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.07 per barrel, down 1.32% [1] Group 3: Petrochemical Product Price Changes - The top five petrochemical products with the highest price increases included lithium battery electrolyte, which rose by 18.42%, liquid chlorine up by 12.78%, vitamin E increased by 8.7%, sulfur up by 6.04%, and paraquat 42% mother liquor up by 5.38%. The products with the largest price declines included butadiene down by 10.35%, acetic acid down by 8.36%, coal tar down by 4.94%, diglycol down by 4.53%, and isooctyl acrylate down by 4.32% [1] Group 4: Stock Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five chemical companies in the stock market with the highest price increases were Pioneer Materials up by 43.49%, Zhenhua Shares up by 34.3%, Duofluor up by 33.15%, Yashi Chuangneng up by 31.72%, and Dongfang Tieta up by 23.43%. The companies with the largest price declines included Shilong Industrial down by 21.91%, Nongxin Technology down by 13.04%, Zhengdan Shares down by 10.58%, Shuiyang Shares down by 10.32%, and Lanfeng Biochemical down by 9.4% [2]

卓创资讯数据显示，截至10月底，中国汽柴油出口套利窗口开启，出口利润分别在206元/吨和468元/ 吨。10月国际油价均价水平环比下跌，叠加国内汽柴油需求偏弱掣肘，汽柴油市场价格偏弱运行，而国 际市场价格下旬受原油反弹带动涨势较快，因此汽柴油出口套利窗口开启。11月国内汽油需求疲软柴油 刚需或有好转，国内市场价格以柴强汽弱表现为主，但国际市场价格向下空间有限，预计出口套利表现 仍偏好。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 成品油：汽柴油出口套利空间开启 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 7 on November 3, with a weekly change of -4 [4][12] - The East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) was 117 on November 3, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -4 [4][12] - The South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) was 87 on November 3, with a daily change of -59 and a weekly change of -14 [4][12] - The 12 - 01 spread was 0 on November 3, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -10 [4][12] - The 12 - 03 spread was -32 on November 3, with a daily change of -16 and a weekly change of -20 [4][12] - The 01 - 02 spread was -13 on November 3, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -6 [4][12] 3.2 BU Main Contract (01) - The price of the BU main contract (01) was 3233 on November 3, with a daily change of -11 and a weekly change of -46 [4][12] - The trading volume was 337,883 on November 3, with a daily change of 104,513 and a weekly change of 112,136 [4][12] - The open interest was 349,765 on November 3, with a daily change of 9,483 and a weekly change of 5,356 [4][12] - The combined volume was 6,940 on November 3, with a daily change of -180 and a weekly change of -2,980 [4][12] 3.3 Spot Market - The price of Brent crude oil was 65.1 on November 3, with a daily change of 0.1 and a weekly change of -0.6 [4][12] - The price of Jingbo was 3210 on November 3, with a daily change of -20 and a weekly change of -110 [4][12] - The price of Hongrun was 3160 on November 3, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -50 [4][12] - The price of Zhenjiang Warehouse was 3350 on November 3, with no daily change and a weekly change of -50 [4][12] - The price of Foshan Warehouse was 3320 on November 3, with a daily change of -70 and a weekly change of -60 [4][12] 3.4 Asphalt Marrow Profit - The asphalt Marrow profit was 207 on November 3, with no daily change and a weekly change of -54 [4][12]