早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 20 日星期五 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2605 价格下跌 158 元至 8362 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 格 8350 元/吨（环比+150），山东地区现货价格 7826 元/吨（环比+123）。持仓方 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 面，多头增加 1305 手至 1.76 万手，空头增加 1445 手至 1.92 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，2 月国内纯苯产量 185.91 万吨，较上月下降 8.73 万吨，较去年同月 上升 13.85 万吨。 2、库存方面，2026 年 3 月 16 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：28.8 万吨，较 上期库存 30.2 万吨去库 1.4 万吨，环比下降 4.6%；较去年同期库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market data, option factors, and provides trading strategies for coal and basic chemical options, including methanol, caustic soda, urea, and polyvinyl chloride options [6][17][28][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Options - **Market Data**: MA605 contract closed at 3182 yuan yesterday, up 253 yuan (8.63%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 3,080,670 lots (up 398,551 lots) and an open interest of 630,637 lots (up 18,908 lots) [3][6] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of methanol call options was 601,250 (down 44,559), and the open interest was 197,980 (up 7,594). The trading volume of put options was 256,929 (up 29,551), and the open interest was 248,964 (up 14,342). The trading volume PCR was 0.43 (up 0.08), and the open interest PCR was 1.26 (up 0.03) [4] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level of the MA option underlying is 3350, and the support level is 1900 [5][6] - **Strategy Recommendations**: For directional strategies, construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options to obtain directional returns. For volatility strategies, due to high geopolitical risks, strategies mainly based on sellers (such as single selling and double selling) are not recommended [7] 3.2 Caustic Soda Options - **Market Data**: SH605 contract closed at 2465 yuan yesterday, up 1 yuan (0.04%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 461,770 lots (down 52,284 lots) and an open interest of 96,324 lots (down 5,963 lots) [14][17] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of caustic soda call options was 55,279 (down 2,821), and the open interest was 40,615 (up 173). The trading volume of put options was 35,113 (down 9,401), and the open interest was 41,404 (down 46). The trading volume PCR was 0.64 (down 0.13), and the open interest PCR was 1.02 (down 0.01) [15] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level of the SH option underlying is 2680, and the support level is 2000 [16][17] - **Strategy Recommendations**: For directional strategies, no recommendation. For volatility strategies, due to high geopolitical risks, strategies mainly based on sellers (such as single selling and double selling) are not recommended [18] 3.3 Urea Options - **Market Data**: UR605 contract closed at 1859 yuan yesterday, down 6 yuan (0.32%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 247,496 lots (up 73,820 lots) and an open interest of 228,441 lots (up 583 lots) [25][28] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of urea call options was 55,496 (up 17,067), and the open interest was 87,694 (up 4,624). The trading volume of put options was 11,987 (up 2,865), and the open interest was 34,935 (up 1,039). The trading volume PCR was 0.22 (down 0.02), and the open interest PCR was 0.4 (down 0.01) [26] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level of the UR option underlying is 2080, and the support level is 1700 [27][28] - **Strategy Recommendations**: For directional strategies, no recommendation. For volatility strategies, construct a combination strategy of selling call and put options to obtain option time - value returns, and dynamically adjust the open positions to keep the delta of the open positions neutral, such as S_UR2605P1760 and S_UR2605C1920 [29] 3.4 Polyvinyl Chloride Options - **Market Data**: v2605 contract closed at 5860 yuan yesterday, up 23 yuan (0.39%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 2,273,090 lots (up 267,171 lots) and an open interest of 831,069 lots (down 24,311 lots) [35][38] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of polyvinyl chloride call options was 127,165 (up 50,552), and the open interest was 81,852 (up 4,704). The trading volume of put options was 59,439 (up 10,057), and the open interest was 92,281 (up 6,409). The trading volume PCR was 0.47 (down 0.18), and the open interest PCR was 1.13 (up 0.01) [36] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level of the V option underlying is 6200, and the support level is 5000 [37][38] - **Strategy Recommendations**: For directional strategies, construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options to obtain directional returns. For volatility strategies, due to high geopolitical risks, strategies mainly based on sellers (such as single selling and double selling) are not recommended [39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of green transformation in the chemical industry, driven by government policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting sustainable practices [5][9] - The government has set a target to reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by approximately 3.8% in 2026 and aims for a cumulative reduction of 17% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - The introduction of the "Ecological Environment Law" marks the beginning of a codified era for environmental protection, focusing on green and low-carbon technology innovation [7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines specific carbon reduction requirements, emphasizing the need for energy structure optimization and significant energy savings in key industries, including chemicals [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 4777.84, with a 52-week high of 5235.06 and a low of 3081.91 [2] Policy Direction - The government report highlights the need for green development standards for high-energy-consuming industries, including measures to control carbon emissions and promote clean energy utilization [5][6] - The report also addresses the need to combat "involution" in competition, ensuring fair market practices through regulatory measures [6] Investment Recommendations - The emphasis on green and low-carbon initiatives positions the chemical industry for long-term investment opportunities, particularly for leading companies with efficient production and robust carbon compliance strategies [9]

Market Performance - The A-share market showed volatility with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly falling below 4000 points before closing up 0.16% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.57%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 3.3%, reaching a peak not seen since January 13 [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 139.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The new energy sector saw significant gains, with stocks like CATL, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Yiyuan Lithium Energy performing strongly [5] - The energy storage concept surged, with companies like Shihang New Energy and Deyi Shares hitting their daily limit and reaching historical highs [5] - The photovoltaic sector experienced a breakout, with stocks such as Shanggong Electric and Shihang New Energy seeing gains of over 19% [5] Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices fell to a six-week low of $4500 before rebounding to $4730, marking a 1.71% increase [6] - Silver prices also rose by 1.77%, reaching $74.135 per ounce [6] - International oil prices continued to decline, with WTI crude futures dropping over 3% [7]

Market Overview - On March 19, the three major indices fell over 1%, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 1.39% and briefly falling below the 4000-point mark[3] - The total trading volume reached 2.13 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 70 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - All sectors except for oil, coal, banking, and utilities experienced declines, with non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and steel leading the losses[1] - The leading stocks in the communication and new energy sectors showed high volatility, while the leading stocks in the non-ferrous and chemical sectors exhibited weaker performance[2] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery[4] - The central bank aims to maintain liquidity and ensure that the growth of social financing aligns with economic growth and price expectations[4] Industry Dynamics - In February 2026, 75.49% of the green certificates issued were related to renewable energy projects, with a total of 1.98 billion certificates issued[7] - Over 30 production companies have increased the specifications and prices of rebar by 20-50 yuan per ton, with some regions seeing increases of up to 80 yuan per ton[9] Fundraising Trends - On March 18, 11 new funds exceeded 1 billion yuan in size, with active equity funds and FOFs making up 7 of these funds[12] - The total scale of FOFs has surpassed 300 billion yuan for the first time, driven by high demand and rapid sales[12]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The spring season is viewed as a period for rebuilding confidence and making decisive index movements, with low valuations and pricing power being the most critical factors under the backdrop of rising global energy costs and weakening financial conditions [1] - The recovery of corporate profit margins is seen as key to the continuation of the A-share bull market, with disruptions in the global supply chain providing an opportunity to validate China's manufacturing pricing power [1] - The Middle East conflict is identified as a catalyst for style shifts in the market, emphasizing the importance of low valuations and pricing power amid rising global costs and weakening financial conditions [1] Group 2: Sector Recommendations - The recommendation is to focus on re-evaluating investments around China's advantageous manufacturing pricing power, particularly in sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy, with price increases remaining a core trading theme [1] - There is an emphasis on increasing exposure to undervalued factors in sectors like insurance, brokerage, and electricity [1] Group 3: Economic Policy and Forecast - China's economy is expected to continue its recovery amidst fluctuations in 2026, with fiscal policy remaining proactive and a deficit rate maintained at 4%, alongside an increase in special bonds aimed at project construction [2] - Monetary policy is anticipated to have room for flexible and efficient use of interest rate cuts, with expectations of 1-2 rate cuts and one reserve requirement ratio reduction throughout the year [2] - The global economic landscape is expected to enter a rebalancing phase, with U.S. economic structural issues leading to a cautious pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 4: Domestic Economic Environment - The current macro and policy landscape is characterized by "reform breakthroughs and industrial upgrades," with a moderate recovery in domestic economic demand and stable government work report targets [3] - Ongoing reforms are aimed at reducing income disparities and expanding the middle-income group, while fiscal reforms are enhancing central coordination capabilities [3] - The focus on energy security and the strategy for becoming a space power is accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system, presenting development opportunities for emerging future industries [3]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 20 日星期五 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘主力合约下跌 554 元至 8240 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 8650 元/吨 （-145），华南瓶片价格 8900 元/吨（+0）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 463 手至 6.24 万手，空头持仓增加 755 手至 6.72 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 【重要资讯】 33.74 万吨，环比+1.42 万吨。国内 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 72.8%，环比+3.1%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 7518 元，环 比+451 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为 650 元/吨，环比+434 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 58.87 万 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline, with all three major indices falling, influenced by the overnight drop in US stocks and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly fell below the 4000-point mark before a slight rebound at the close, indicating weakened market sentiment. Over 4900 stocks declined, reflecting a significant loss effect, with focus shifting to defensive sectors like oil and gas, and coal [1] Geopolitical Impact - The uncertainty surrounding the oil transportation route in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to affect the price trends of crude oil and the US dollar in the near term. The market's risk appetite will largely depend on whether there is a substantial easing of tensions in the Middle East [1] Future Market Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty may influence short-term market dynamics, particularly if crude oil prices rise significantly, which could heighten market concerns and impact A-share sector rotations. The sustained strength of the petrochemical sector may suppress preferences for technology growth sectors, leading to a slower upward trend for indices while individual stock performance lags behind the market [1] Long-term Trends - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term upward trend for A-shares remains intact, supported by increased household savings entering the market and a recovery in the performance of A-share listed companies [1] Sector Focus - As March approaches, marking the annual report season, high-performing sectors will attract market attention. Notable sectors include: 1. AI hardware, with a confirmed industry trend and increasing token usage for major AI models, indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026 [2] 2. Semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] 3. New energy materials benefiting from rapid growth in domestic and overseas storage demand, showing signs of supply shortages and price increases, with a continued upward trend expected through 2026 [2] 4. Price-increasing cycles in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, with anticipated strong annual report performances due to sustained price increases [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 20, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of these varieties [1][6][23][29][40][51] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - The report shows the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from March 13 to March 19, 2026. The basis values are - 72.4, - 78.4, - 78.4, - 78.4, - 72.4 respectively, and the spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are presented. For example, on March 19, the basis of INE crude oil is 336.64, the basis of fuel oil is 199.69, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt is 0.1733 [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. For instance, on March 19, the basis of rubber is - 90, and that of methanol is 35.5 [12] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is - 650 [13] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are shown. On March 19, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 2979 [13] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is - 58.0 [22] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. On March 19, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.88 [22] - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are given. On March 19, the basis of rebar is 95.0 [23] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are presented. On March 19, the basis of copper is 1140 [30] London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 19, 2026 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is (100.12) [35] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are given. On March 19, the basis of soybeans No.1 is - 216 [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 27 [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are shown. On March 19, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio is 2.03 [41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. On March 19, the basis of CSI 300 is - 3.35 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 25.2 [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state. Although demand is marginally improving and inventory is gradually being depleted, there is no strong trend - driving force yet. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - Due to negotiation issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts, iron ore prices are fluctuating widely. There is a need to pay attention to subsequent negotiation progress and geopolitical situation development [5]. - In the short term, short - selling operations may not be appropriate before the Iran - US situation eases significantly. It is advisable to look for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and highly elastic varieties [9][15]. - For manganese silicon, factors such as supply - demand pattern, high inventory, and weak downstream demand are mostly priced in. Future market trends are mainly influenced by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore, and supply contraction (or contraction expectations) of ferrosilicon [10]. - In the short term, coking coal prices may have upward pulses due to market sentiment spillover, but in the medium - to - long term, coking coal prices are expected to be optimistic from June to October [15]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly under cost support, while polysilicon is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [18][20]. - Float glass is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern, and soda ash is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and the inventory changes in major production areas [23][25]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 41,676 tons, a net increase of 27 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.4492 million lots, a net decrease of 65,665 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton (-0.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 473,996 tons, a net decrease of 292 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.1432 million lots, a net decrease of 28,781 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The real - estate data from January to February was still weak. The real - estate investment repair momentum was insufficient, and the terminal demand was likely to remain weak. The hot - rolled coil demand recovered quickly, the output increased slightly, and the inventory entered the depletion stage. The rebar supply and demand both increased, and the inventory decreased slightly, showing a neutral performance overall [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 807.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.43% (-3.50). The position changed by -8625 lots to 446,900 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 866,600 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 791 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.78 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.90% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - The overseas ore shipments in the latest period rebounded month - on - month. The shipments from Australia increased, those from Brazil remained stable, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average pig iron output increased by 69,500 tons to 2.2815 million tons. The blast furnaces that resumed production were mainly in Hebei after the end of production restrictions. The pig iron output is expected to continue to rise. The steel mill profitability rate continued to rise slightly. The port inventory decreased slightly from the high level, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased. Overall, the overseas supply of iron ore fluctuated at a high level and declined marginally. The BHP negotiation issue intensified the expectation of resource structural tension. The iron ore price fluctuated widely due to negotiation issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 19, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose 0.81% intraday and closed at 6188 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 6190 yuan/ton, a premium of 2 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) rose 0.48% intraday and closed at 5824 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, a premium of 176 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon was still not ideal, but these factors were mostly priced in. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon were good. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were mainly influenced by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore, and supply contraction (or contraction expectations) of ferrosilicon. Attention should be paid to possible restrictive measures on manganese ore exports in South Africa and Gabon and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 19, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) initially rose due to the influence of crude oil sentiment but then fell due to the market environment, and finally rose 0.26% intraday and closed at 1159.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1464.9 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1272.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 113 yuan/ton to the futures price; the spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1300 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1284 yuan/ton, a premium of 124.5 yuan/ton to the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 cleaned coal in Wubulang Jinquan Industrial Park was 1240 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1215 yuan/ton, a premium of 55.5 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) fell 0.03% intraday and closed at 1721.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a conversion to the futures price of 1725.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 4.5 yuan/ton to the futures price; the spot price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a conversion to the futures price of 1710.5 yuan/ton, a discount of 10.5 yuan/ton to the futures price [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Last week, coking coal prices benefited from the energy sentiment premium brought by the high - level crude oil due to the continuous perturbation of the Middle - East situation, and coke prices mainly followed the cost - side coking coal price fluctuations. In the short term, short - selling operations may not be appropriate before the Iran - US situation eases significantly. The inventory structure will show that downstream steel mills and coking plants actively reduce inventory, and upstream mines accumulate inventory, which will restrict the demand for coking coal and coke in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, coking coal prices are expected to be optimistic from June to October [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8285 yuan/ton, a change of -1.07% (-90). The weighted contract position increased by 14,461 lots to 378,927 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 815 yuan/ton for the main contract; the spot price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 515 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion to the futures price [17]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 38,550 yuan/ton, a change of -3.88% (-1555). The weighted contract position decreased by 3390 lots to 50,915 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 44 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 42 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1 yuan/kg from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 43.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.75 yuan/kg from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 5200 yuan/ton [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand pattern was weak on both sides. Due to the influence of overseas geopolitical conflicts and energy price fluctuations, the cost support was relatively solid. It is expected to fluctuate weakly under cost support [18]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals were weak, and the price pressure remained. The inventory of the silicon wafer link was slowly depleted, and the downstream enterprise operating rate recovery was less than expected. The polysilicon inventory pressure increased, and the downstream restocking was only for rigid demand. The market new orders were few, and the price declined. The futures price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [20]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract of glass closed at 1066 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, a decrease of 2.56% (-28). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 19, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 74.436 million cases, a decrease of 1.413 million cases (-1.86%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 4218 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 17,285 short positions [22]. - Soda ash: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1211 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, a decrease of 2.57% (-32). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1201 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 19, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8538 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons (-1.86%), among which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 890,700 tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 963,100 tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 6678 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 25,634 short positions [24]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The Middle - East geopolitical situation led to an increase in fuel costs, providing cost support. The market demand improved slightly, and the overall trading activity increased. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and the inventory changes in major production areas. The reference range for the main contract is 1030 - 1110 yuan/ton [23]. - Soda ash: The Middle - East geopolitical situation led to an increase in international oil prices, driving up the prices of coal - chemical and soda ash. However, as the situation stagnated, the upward momentum of coal - chemical weakened. The supply was relatively abundant, and the demand for raw material restocking by glass enterprises was still strong. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and the inventory changes in main production areas. The reference range for the main contract is 1180 - 1250 yuan/ton [25].