7月22日，我国化工行业迎来大事件——丙烯期货和期权在郑州商品交易所正式挂牌交易。作为国内规 模最大的烯烃品种，丙烯期货和期权的上市，补齐烯烃产业链风险管理的关键环节，标志着我国化工期 货品种体系进一步完善，筑牢产业风险管理屏障。 行业风险管理需求强烈 "我国已跻身世界石化大国行列，丙烯产量和消费量均稳居世界第一位，对全球产业发展具有举足轻重 的影响。但同时，行业正面临上游产能高速扩张、有效需求不足等诸多挑战，处于转型升级的关键时 期。"中国石油和化学工业联合会党委书记兼会长李云鹏在上市仪式上表示，丙烯期货和期权上市交易 是期货市场服务化工行业、助力建设制造强国的又一重要举措。丙烯期货和期权将为产业提供有效的定 价参考、风险管理和资源配置工具，提升企业抗风险能力，为丙烯产业的稳健发展注入新动力。 破解痛点完善避险工具 丙烯期货和期权的推出，改变了行业风险管理工具缺失的局面。"期货+期权"的双重设计，为产业链企 业提供了更加灵活多样的套保工具选择。中石化化工销售有限公司市场营销首席专家张有定表示，丙烯 期货和期权上市标志着国内期货市场品种体系的进一步完善和成熟，为丙烯产业链上下游企业提供了强 有力的产品库存保值 ...

周期板块估值处于低位 近期政策面、大工程"暖风"齐吹，一举点燃了A股周期板块压抑已久的热情。宝晓辉视其为"巨大的利 好"：国家将综合整治"内卷式竞争"提升至战略高度，推动落后产能有序退出，这套组合拳直指优化供 需关系与提升商品价格，最终有望转化为企业业绩与市值的双重支撑。此外，经济基本面的背书同样有 力，稳中向好的经济复苏态势有望提振大宗商品需求。 章诗颖表示，A股周期板块近期的强势反弹，既源于供给侧改革预期升温，更得益于"相关板块整体估 值处于历史低位，机构持有筹码较少"的情况。 前述上海中型私募基金经理从资金博弈角度认同这一观点：上半年新消费、创新药、红利等板块的行情 已充分演绎，机构"配置纠偏"初步完成。而上游资源、新能源、地产等长期被冷落的领域，在"反内 卷、优供给及大型水电工程"等催化剂作用下，极易产生"升温效应"。 ● 本报记者 王辉 上周以来，国内商品期货市场多个工业品价格急速拉升，基建、有色、钢铁、建材等板块在A股市场轮 番领涨。推动力来自政策端与消息面的双重刺激：工信部宣布将实施新一轮十大重点行业稳增长工作方 案，着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能；同时，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式举行，点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 2025 Global Top 50 Chemical Companies ranking, highlighting the changes in the chemical industry landscape and the performance of major companies in terms of sales revenue and growth rates [1][2]. Summary by Sections Global Ranking and Sales Performance - The entry threshold for this year's ranking is $8 billion, a decrease of nearly $400 million from last year. The total sales revenue of the top 50 companies is $1.014 trillion, down 0.07% year-on-year from 2023, indicating stabilization at the bottom of the chemical market in 2024 [2]. - The top four companies are BASF, Sinopec, Dow, and PetroChina, with sales revenues of approximately $70.612 billion, $58.131 billion, $43 billion, and $42.783 billion respectively, showing changes of -5.3%, +1.7%, -3.7%, and +6.4% compared to 2023 [2][9]. Chinese Companies in the Ranking - Eleven Chinese companies made the list, including notable names such as Formosa Plastics (11th, $30.343 billion), Syngenta (13th, $26.9 billion), and Rongsheng Petrochemical (14th, $26.398 billion) [3][9]. - Tongkun Holding Group experienced the fastest sales growth at 23.3%, with a production capacity of 10 million tons of crude oil processing rights and leading global capacity in polyester filament [4][9]. Company Strategies and Innovations - Dongfang Shenghong is diversifying its product offerings, with recent projects including an 800 tons/year polyolefin development and a successful launch of a 5,000 tons/year para-aramid project [5]. - Rongsheng Petrochemical is heavily investing in high-end chemical materials, with projects totaling 1.48 trillion yuan for a 10 million tons/year facility covering various chemical products [6]. - Wanhua Chemical focuses on specialized products, including MDI and TDI, and is actively recruiting talent for new material sectors [7][8]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The article indicates a shift in the chemical landscape, with Japanese companies showing overall sales growth, suggesting a changing dynamic in North America, Europe, and Asia [2]. - Sinopec is focusing on filling market gaps with innovative products like high-performance polypropylene and battery separator materials [8].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower Project** - **Real Estate Sector** - **Petrochemical Industry** - **Companies Mentioned**: China Resources Land, Xiamen C&D, Dongfang Electric, Harbin Electric, TBEA, Pinggao, and others Key Points and Arguments Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower Project - The project is expected to significantly increase China's hydropower capacity, adding 60-70 units of 1 million kilowatts, with a total market capacity of approximately 500 billion yuan [1][3] - The construction of ultra-high voltage lines is a crucial part of the project, requiring 6-7 lines of 800 kV DC, with a total investment close to 200 billion yuan, benefiting equipment suppliers like Xidian, TBEA, and Pinggao [1][4] - The project will drive demand for cement by approximately 25 million tons and steel by 3-4 million tons, which, while limited in total impact, represents significant incremental demand for related companies, particularly local cement firms like Huaxin Cement [1][7][8] Petrochemical Industry - The petrochemical sector faces risks of overcapacity, with the government likely to implement policies to limit new capacity, which could enhance valuation multiples but is unlikely to lead to a significant turnaround in fundamentals in the short term [1][13] - The industry has seen a surge in capacity since 2015, leading to potential overcapacity issues if not managed [1][13] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market is expected to remain weak in the first half of 2025, with average profits projected to decline by about 15% year-on-year, particularly affecting private enterprises more than state-owned ones [1][19][20] - Companies like China Resources Land and Xincheng Holdings are showing strong retail performance, with rental income growth in the double digits, leading some to potentially raise their full-year rental income guidance [1][23] - Concerns about asset impairment provisions are prevalent among investors, as property prices continue to decline [1][22] Recommendations - **China Resources Land** is recommended due to its business transformation and rental income growth [2][24] - **Xiamen C&D** is suggested for its relatively new land reserves, expected to outperform peers in sales and profit margins [2][24] Additional Insights - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo project will have a long construction cycle of 10-15 years, with significant equipment procurement phases expected in the next 5-8 years [1][4][6] - The demand for steel from the project is expected to average 150,000 to 200,000 tons annually over 20 years, which is minor relative to China's total steel production [1][9] - The waterproofing materials industry has seen increased concentration, with leading companies like Dongfang Yuhong capturing over 30% market share [1][10] Stock Market Sentiment - Recent stock price increases are driven by market sentiment rather than fundamental performance, with recommendations to wait for a more stable market environment before making investment decisions [1][12]

能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 2025 年 7 月 23 日 星期三 EB 基差大幅回落，月差可能转向 Contango 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 价格：7 月 22 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 0.15%，报 7481/吨，基差 4（-64 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收涨 0.95%，报 6278 元/吨。 成本：7 月 22 日布油主力合约收盘 66.0 桶（-0.1 美元/桶），WTI 原油 主力合约收盘 69.2 桶（-0.1 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 6005 元/吨（+0 元/吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 20.8 万吨（-0.1 万吨），环比去库 0.7%，江 苏港口库存 13.9 万吨（+2.7 万吨），环比累库 24.2%，苯乙烯整体累库。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置回归，供应整体持稳。目前，苯乙烯周产量保持 35.9 万吨（-0.4 万吨），工厂产能利用率 78.3%（-0.9%）。 需求：下游 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 07 月 23 日 定期报告 黑色系商品价格上涨，新能源和光伏产业链价格反弹 ——行业景气观察（0723） 相关报告 本周景气度改善的方向主要在上游资源品、中游制造、信息技术领域。上游资源 品中，钢材、煤炭、玻璃价格上涨；中游制造领域，光伏和部分新能源产业链价 格上涨，6 月包装专用设备、金属成形机床产量三个月滚动同比增幅收窄。信息 技术中，DRAM 价格上行，6 月电信主营收入三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服 务领域，空冰洗彩零售额四周滚动同比增幅扩大。近期涨价品类主要集中在资源 品、新能源和光伏产业链，以及部分农产品。推荐景气较高或有改善的焦炭、钢 铁、建材、有色、电池、硅料硅片、半导体、通信、证券等。 《6 月社零同比增幅收窄，智能手 机产量同比转正（0716）》 《6 月 CPI 同比转正，挖机、装 载机销量同比增幅扩大（0709）》 风险提示：产业扶持度不及预期，宏观经济波动。 ❑【本周关注】近期受益于"反内卷"政策预期，相关的黑色系商品以及新能源和 光伏产业链价格较大反弹。具体来看，涨价品类主要有：1）钢材、煤炭、玻璃、 纯碱等受益于"反内卷"催化，价格 ...

报告导读： 地产销售和服务消费需求依然承压，耐用品外销承压。国内"反内卷"政策预期 持续发酵，钢铁、浮法、煤炭和有色金属等周期资源品价格环比上涨。 反内卷预期发酵继续推涨资源品价格。 上周（ 07.14-07.20 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）反 内卷政策预期持续发酵，钢铁、浮法、煤炭和有色金属等周期资源品价格环比上涨。后续仍需观察具体政 策出台和落地情况以及基建和制造业开工对资源品需求的拉动效果。 2 ）地产销售持续磨底并拖累建筑施 工需求，螺纹钢表观消费量环比下降，水泥价格延续下行。 3 ）耐用品内外需求景气表现分化，空调出口 降幅扩大，尽管空调内销依然保持较快增长，但部分由于高温因素带来的冲量效应，内需增长持续性仍待 观察；暑期服务消费景气延续季节性改善趋势，但电影票房同比降幅扩大，显示居民消费仍待提振。 下游消费：地产销售持续磨底，空调销售延续内外分化。 1 ）地产： 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比 -23.1% 。其中一线 / 二线 / 三线城市商品房成交面积同比 -18.9%/-29.9%/-14.0% 。 10 大重点城 市二手房成交面积同比 -7.7% 。地产销售景气持续磨底。 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a slight recovery in industrial production and construction activity, alongside an increase in freight volume, indicating potential improvements in economic conditions. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production shows a slight recovery, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 0.8% year-on-year [5][9] - The chemical production chain has seen improvements, with soda ash and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 3.3 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [2][17] - The automotive sector also shows improvement, with semi-steel tire operating rates up by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [17] Group 2: Construction Activity - Construction activity is showing signs of recovery, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [29] - Cement shipment rates have significantly improved, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points [29][33] - Asphalt operating rates have slightly decreased but remain higher than the same period last year [2][41] Group 3: Demand and Freight Volume - Real estate transactions remain low, with average daily transaction area down by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [53] - Freight volume has increased, with port cargo throughput and container throughput rising by 1.3 percentage points and 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [65][72] - The national migration scale index has increased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stronger movement of people [77] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally weak, with pork, vegetables, and fruit prices declining by 0.1%, 0.1%, and 1.0% respectively [107] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index rising by 1.0% [119][120] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 0.9%, while the metal price index also rose by 1.0% [119][126] Group 5: Export Indicators - Export indicators show potential improvement, with foreign trade port cargo volume increasing by 8.9% year-on-year [135] - Container throughput to Vietnam has surged to over 60%, while shipments to the U.S. have decreased [135] - The overall export production index has increased by 0.5 percentage points, suggesting a positive outlook for July exports [138]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇、浦聚颖 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产小幅回升，建筑业开工有所回暖，货运量也有回升。 【工业生产】工业生产小幅回升。本周，高炉开工率同比小幅上行，录得0.8%。 化工链生产有所回升， 纯碱、涤纶长丝开工同比分别+3.3pct至-2.7%、+1.9pct至6%。汽车半钢胎开工亦有改善，同比+3.2pct 至-3.1%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工有所回暖。 本周，全国粉磨开工率同比+1.4pct至-2.3%；水泥出货率回升幅度 较大，同比+2.4pct至-0.6%。沥青开工率有所回落，同比-3.5pct 至3.8%，但整体仍高于去年同期。 全国247家钢厂盈利率 == 2021 = 2022 2019 2023 2025 -2024 100 % 80 60 40 20 0 10 11 12 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 目 月 月 资料来源: Wind、申万宏源研究 【下游需求】地产成交持续低位，货运量有所回升。 本周，全国新房日均成交面积偏弱，同比-7.1pct 至-26%；其中，一线成交同比-20.3%。货运方面， ...

基础化工 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 23 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 中性(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 中性 | 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 "内卷式竞争"不同于公平竞争，它对市场价格信号会产生不同性质的作 用 2024 年 7 月 30 日，中共中央政治局召开会议提出"要强化行业自律，防止 "内卷式"恶性竞争。强化市场优胜劣汰机制，畅通落后低效产能退出渠道。" 2024 年 12 月 11 日至 12 日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议提出"综合整治 "内卷式"竞争，规范地方政府和企业行为。"参考解放日报 2025 年 7 月 14 日发表的文章，《综合整治"内卷式"竞争》中的表述，公平竞争与"内 卷式"竞争的一个本质区别在于，它们对市场价格信号会产生不同性质的作 用。"内卷式"竞争，无视成本、价格、供需实际关系，为了抢占市场份额， 以严重低于产品成本的价格扰乱行业秩序，在招商过程中出现过度承诺现 象，加之相关标准、规范的更新速度滞后于行业快速发展，最终对整个行业 价格信号造成扭曲，无法对资源配置进行积极调节引导，各类主体内耗现象 明显，长期下来将导 ...