Core Insights - The storage industry is experiencing unprecedented supply-demand tension, with DRAM shortages expected to last until Q1 2027 and NAND shortages until Q3 2026, driven by a significant increase in demand, particularly from AI servers [1][2][6]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - DRAM demand is projected to grow by 20.7%, significantly outpacing supply growth of 18.6% [2]. - The supply of DDR contracts is expected to rise by 35% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2023, with NAND prices increasing by 20% [1]. - Customers are actively securing long-term supply agreements, with major cloud service providers extending pre-purchase orders to 2028 [1][7]. Group 2: Market Trends and Pricing - The current price increases are attributed to genuine demand rather than speculative hoarding, as inventory levels remain low across various customer segments [7]. - Server DDR inventory is approximately 11 weeks, while PC and mobile DRAM inventories are around 9 weeks, and SSD inventories are at 8 weeks [7]. - The HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market is expected to see a 59.9% year-over-year increase in demand by 2026, reaching 276.7 billion Gb [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - SK Hynix is anticipated to maintain a dominant position in the HBM4 market, expected to capture about 70% of the market share [9]. - UBS has raised target prices for major storage manufacturers, including SK Hynix and Samsung, reflecting positive market sentiment [9].

但市盈率仅10.8倍，远低于美光科技的24.7倍。 盈利能力显著高于美光，仍被低估。 SK海力士还制定了提升股东价值的计划，股价甚至可能更快达到91万韩元。 闪德资讯，一个聚焦关注存储产业供应链和趋势变化的垂直媒体。 据闪德资讯获悉，SK海力士承认可能发行美国ADR，计划在美国上市。 有望拓宽投资基础，解决股票估值偏低的问题，开辟大规模的融资渠道。 得益于近期强劲上涨，SK海力士市值已超过美光科技。 如果发行成功，SK海力士将成为第九家在美国上市的韩国公司。 ...

Important Market News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%. This marks the third consecutive rate cut since September 2023 and the sixth since the current easing cycle began in September 2024. Fed Chairman Powell stated that the monetary policy actions are guided by the dual mandate of promoting full employment and price stability. The committee noted that inflation risks are tilted upward while employment risks are tilted downward, indicating a challenging situation [1] - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 0.33%, and S&P 500 up 0.68%. Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Tesla, Amazon, Broadcom, and Google gaining over 1%. However, Meta fell over 1% and Microsoft dropped over 2%. Storage, energy storage, and infrastructure stocks led the gains, with GE Vernova rising over 15% and Sandisk up over 6%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.65%, with most Chinese concept stocks increasing [1] Industry Insights - SpaceX is advancing its IPO plans, aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion and plans to raise over $30 billion. The IPO is expected to occur in mid to late 2026, with part of the funds allocated for developing space data centers. SpaceX currently monopolizes nearly 90% of the orbital launch market and is expanding into space data services, creating a business model independent of Earth's resource limitations. If successful, this IPO could surpass Saudi Aramco's record $29 billion fundraising in 2019, marking the largest IPO in history [3] - The satellite communication industry is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could reach between 200 billion to 400 billion yuan by 2030, with an annual growth rate of 10%-28%. The industry is at a critical turning point from "concept validation" to "scale application," driven by technological maturity, cost reductions, and expanded application scenarios [4] - NAND flash memory prices have surged nearly 50% in a month, with shortages expected to become widespread after Q2 2024. Reports indicate that many manufacturers have inventory only until Q1 2026, and some will have no stock available from March 2024. The price increase is driven by a shift in production capacity towards high-profit enterprise and AI applications, alongside a rapid exit of older process capacities [5] - The low-altitude economy is becoming a strategic emerging industry, with Meituan set to launch an integrated low-altitude logistics network. This network aims to achieve delivery efficiency within a 3-kilometer radius in 15 minutes. The market for low-altitude economy is expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, presenting significant growth opportunities for related companies [7]

摩根大通报告指出，尽管闪迪受益于AI浪潮驱动的企业级SSD超级周期，但其在该高增长市场中份额仅2%-3%，处于行业跟随地位。同时，当前高利润 环境本质上是行业周期性繁荣，随着2027年前后主要厂商启动新一轮产能扩张，供需结构将趋于宽松，届时行业可能重回"繁荣-萧条"周期。因此，公司 短期超额利润不可持续，长期盈利能力预计将逐步向历史均衡水平回归。 摩根大通给予闪迪"中性"评级，目标价为235美元。该机构认为，尽管闪迪在AI驱动需求与合资成本优势下正处利润高峰，但这更多反映行业周期性景 气，而非结构性改善。 摩根大通分析师Harlan Sur在12月8日发布的首次覆盖报告中表示，公司的长期盈利能力面临双重制约：一是在快速增长的AI存储市场中份额仅2-3%， 处于跟随地位；二是行业"繁荣-萧条"周期预计将从2027年后重现，随着新产能释放，当前供不应求的局面与高定价能力将逐渐消退。 报告指出，考虑到闪迪股价今年至今已上涨超过500%，当前的风险与潜在回报已基本匹配。 即便预计2025-2026年收入增长显著，盈利与现金流亦大 幅提升，这体现的是行业上行阶段的周期性高点，未来或将随供需平衡转向而逐步回归至长期均衡水 ...

需求测算 AI训练、推理拉动存储需求增长。AI大模型推理拉动存储需求快速增长，根据该行测算结果，2026年 AI推理对DRAM、NAND需求分别为23.0EB、593.5EB，短期供不应求，存储价格有望持续提升，存储 大周期方兴未艾。 公司梳理 国信证券发布研报称，存储市场存在HDD、SSD、NAND、DRAM、HBM几大技术趋势，主要参与者 众多。AI大模型推理拉动存储需求快速增长，根据该行测算结果，2026年AI推理对DRAM、NAND需求 分别为23.0EB、593.5EB，短期供不应求，存储价格有望持续提升，存储大周期方兴未艾。 国信证券主要观点如下： 存储系统 系统构成与分类。1)系统构成：AI存储系统主要分为网络端存储和本地端存储，其中网络端存储主要存 放冷数据，主要由HDD和SSD存储;本地端存储主要存放热数据和温数据，主要由HBM、DRAM、本地 SSD存储。2)存储分类：存储主要可以分为"易失性"的Memory和"非易失性"的Storage，其中Memory主 要包括DRAM和HBM，优势为速度快;Storage主要包括SSD和HDD，优势为容量大、成本低。 市场与技术趋势 HDD、SSD、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangbolong plans to raise 3.7 billion yuan through a private placement to actively invest in high-end AI storage, storage controller chips, and advanced packaging and testing [1] Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Plans - The company intends to use 880 million yuan of the raised funds to develop storage products targeting the AI sector, including enterprise-level SSDs and high-end consumer SSDs [1] - The company is expanding its enterprise storage business by leveraging self-developed technology and actively participating in major client technology and new product bidding [1] Group 2: Market Growth and Opportunities - The global AIGC wave and the "Digital China" top-level planning are providing new growth momentum for the storage market [1] - As a leading independent memory manufacturer in China, the company is advancing its domestic and international dual-wheel layout in the storage industry, indicating significant growth potential [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company's projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is expected to be 1.16 billion, 1.85 billion, and 2.32 billion yuan, respectively [1] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are forecasted to be 99, 62, and 49 times, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

格隆汇12月10日｜据台湾工商时报，存储市场供需失衡急速升温，企业级与AI应用持续吸纳NAND Flash产能，使消费市场供货量急冻。根据供应链透露，由于NAND配额不足、成本暴涨，多家PC/笔记 本OEM厂正在重新调整2026年新品规格，包含512GBSSD，下修至256GB、1TB下修至512GB等级。存 储模组厂也透露，目前缺货程度远超过以往，多家同业手中库存仅能撑到2026年第一季，3月起部分厂 商无货可交，第二季后缺料将成为全面现象。龙头模组厂仍握有原厂合约保留量，但多半只能支撑上半 年需求，下半年市况将比现在更吃紧。此外，消费市场复苏未明朗，若PC、手机因存储涨价被迫提高 售价，需求恐再度反转，因此，原厂选择控产、维持供应紧缩，以支撑价格回稳。 ...

2026 年 A 股投资策略 - 破晓：从预期到盈利的切换 20251209 摘要 2026 年中国实际 GDP 增速预计放缓至 4.7%，但名义 GDP 有望提升至 5.5%，主要受益于价格数据改善，这将带动企业盈利增长，利好股市。 投资方面，制造业投资有望回升至 4%左右，基建投资小幅回升至 3%左 右，地产投资降幅预计收窄至-8%至-9%。出口增速预计与全球平均贸 易增速相当，约为 3%左右。 消费增速预计与今年持平，约为 4%左右，通胀率预计在 0.9%至 1%之 间波动。政策资金逐步从商品补贴转向服务业，有望带动核心 CPI 改善。 优先推荐科技板块，尤其是 AI 产业链，包括上游算力及配套板块，下游 机器人、游戏和软件。同时关注与价格改善相关行业如存储、储能尤其 是锂电链条，以及外需带动机会如工程机械和国防军工。 预计 2026 年全部 A 股盈利增速约为 10.3%，剔除金融后的全部 A 股盈 利增速为 7.7%。创业板和科创板表现尤为亮眼，创业板预计增长 31.7%，科创板预计增长 34.3%。 Q&A 2026 年 A 股市场的总体判断是什么？ 2026 年 A 股市场的重点将从预期和估值驱 ...

| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-09 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3909.52 | 13277.36 | 4598.22 | 14125.60 | 3891.24 | 1347.10 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.37 | -0.39 | -0.50 | -0.48 | 0.03 | -0.27 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7811.60 | 11227.92 | 4521.13 | 3682.99 | 5281.06 | 548.18 | 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月10日 宏观与策略 宏观快评:11 月进出口数据点评-高技术提速，新市场托底 行业与公司 家电行业周报（25 年第 49 周）：石头科技黑五大促实现强劲增长，传 统扫地机巨头 iRobot 面临危机 机械行业周报:制造成长周报（第 37 期）-特朗普政府聚焦机器人行业， Tiktok 拟投资 380 亿美元建数据中心 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones down 0.37%, the Nasdaq up 0.13%, and the S&P 500 down 0.09%. Notable gainers included Google, Broadcom, and Tesla, each rising over 1%, while Meta fell over 1% [1] - International oil prices decreased, with WTI crude oil down 0.87% at $58.37 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.66% at $62.08 per barrel. Silver prices reached a historical high, surpassing $60 per ounce, while gold prices saw a slight increase [2] Industry Insights - The successful launch of 15 low-orbit satellites by the Long March 6 rocket marks a significant achievement for China's satellite internet capabilities, demonstrating rapid advancements in technology and engineering efficiency [3] - The satellite communication industry is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of 200 to 400 billion yuan by 2030, driven by technological maturity and cost reductions [4] - The CFM flash memory market report indicates a substantial supply shortage for server eSSD and DDR5 RDIMM, with prices expected to rise by over 40% and 20-30% respectively by Q1 2026 [5] - The IDC report forecasts that user spending on embodied intelligent robots in China will exceed $1.4 billion by 2025 and reach $77 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 94% [6] - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to experience significant growth, particularly in 2025, as leading companies enhance component performance and reduce costs [7][8]