Core Insights - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index has seen a strong increase of 1.49% as of January 13, 2026, with notable gains from stocks such as Kasei Biotech (up 11.71%) and Xingfa Group (up 8.42%) [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) has risen by 1.17%, reaching a latest price of 0.95 yuan, and has experienced a total net inflow of 57.72 million yuan over the past four days [1] - The Petrochemical ETF has achieved a net value increase of 50% over the past two years, with a maximum monthly return of 15.86% since its inception [1] Fund Performance - The Petrochemical ETF has a current scale of 307 million yuan, marking a one-year high [1] - The longest consecutive monthly gain for the ETF was 8 months, with a maximum cumulative increase of 41.6% [1] - The average return during the months of increase is 5.25%, and the ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 2.19% over the past year [1] Top Holdings - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index account for 56.73% of the index, including Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical [1] - The top ten stocks by weight are: - Wanhua Chemical (10.47%) - China Petroleum (7.63%) - Salt Lake Co. (6.44%) - China Petrochemical (6.44%) - CNOOC (6.44%) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefins have been boosted since the beginning of the year, but the fundamental support is not solid. The supply pressure of polypropylene has eased due to more temporary maintenance, while the overall supply pressure of plastics has slightly increased. The demand for mulch film has driven a slight increase in the start - up of agricultural film, and the start - up of other sectors is basically stable. The replenishment of some downstream factories has slightly increased, but the increase is limited. Enterprises' resistance to high prices restricts the price increase. In the short term, international oil prices have risen due to the Iranian protest activities threatening supply, but overseas geopolitical conflicts cannot change the oversupply pattern of crude oil. Polyolefins are expected to rise first and then fall driven by supply recovery, demand entering the off - season inventory digestion cycle [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Plastic Futures**: L2605 opened lower, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 6737 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (1.35%), with a trading volume of 500,000 lots and a decrease of 509 lots in positions to 490,780 lots. - **PP Futures**: PP2605 closed at 6560 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan, with a gain of 1.05%, and a decrease of 614 lots in positions to 502,700 lots [3][4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On January 12, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 575,000 tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons (5.74%) from the previous working day, compared with 560,000 tons in the same period last year. - **PE Market**: Most PE market prices rose. Linear futures opened higher and fluctuated. The market trading atmosphere was average. As some ex - factory prices were raised, traders followed suit and raised their quotes, and downstream buyers were cautious in purchasing. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6430 - 6600 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6800 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6850 yuan/ton respectively. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of the Shandong propylene market was temporarily referred to as 5770 - 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The overall shipment of production enterprises was smooth, the propylene offer was adjusted steadily, and there was still a premium situation in the actual order auction of some enterprises. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories remained high, and the overall market trading atmosphere was good. - **PP Market**: The PP market showed an obvious upward trend, and the price center of some markets rose by 50 - 70 yuan/ton. Traders' quotes followed the upward trend significantly, and the market center rose. Downstream factories were cautious in purchasing and still resisted high - priced goods, resulting in poor market transactions. The regional price ranges were 6130 - 6250 yuan/ton in North China, 6230 - 6400 yuan/ton in East China, and 6150 - 6450 yuan/ton in South China [5][6]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, settlement price of the main crude oil futures contract, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [8][10][11].

2026 年 1 月 13 日 LPG：短期供应偏紧，地缘扰动偏强 丙烯：现货供需收紧，趋势偏强 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | PG2602 | 4,239 | 0.43% | 4,213 | -0.61% | | | PG2603 | 4,155 | 0.46% | 4,123 | -0.77% | | | PL2602 | 5,978 | 1.10% | 5,887 | -1.52% | | | PL2603 | 6,071 | 1.13% | 5,980 | -1.50% | | | PL2604 | 6,098 | 1.13% | 6,032 | -1.08% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2602 | 52,187 | 4843 | 29,464 | -3998 | | | P ...

021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 行业 沥青日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 13 ...

Core Viewpoint - The first financial meteorological AI model "Entropy Machine" has been launched in China, developed by Fudan University and the National Meteorological Information Center, aiming to explore the role of meteorological factors in financial asset pricing and provide innovative tools for risk management and investment decision-making [1][2]. Group 1: Model Development and Purpose - "Entropy Machine" is based on global meteorological reanalysis data and stock price-volume data, capable of predicting short-term returns for the majority of A-share market stocks [1]. - The model's validation shows that it accurately identifies industries highly sensitive to meteorological factors, such as renewable energy (wind and solar), traditional oil and chemical industries, construction, and agriculture, aligning with the World Meteorological Risk Management Association's listed industries [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Performance - Investment strategies constructed based on the model's test results have demonstrated consistent positive returns during historical backtesting across multiple time periods, preliminarily validating the effectiveness and application potential of meteorological factors in the A-share market [1]. Group 3: Applications and Implications - The "Entropy Machine" has broad applications in the financial sector, allowing companies in climate-sensitive industries to manage climate risks and maintain market value [2]. - Financial institutions such as banks and insurance companies can utilize the model for risk control in equity pledge businesses and expand into innovative climate investment and financing [2]. - Investors can use the model as an auxiliary tool for quantitative investment, while academia can leverage its outputs to test and refine asset pricing theories [2].

2026年1月12日下午，中国石化股价锁在下跌3.50%附近震荡，最终收出一根大阴线。 这是继前一日炸板后的第二根阴线，两天 累计跌幅让打板者亏了12%。 更扎心的是，同期A股三大指数放量上涨，交易量逼近3.5万亿，市场一片欢腾。 中石化46万股东 眼睁睁看着重组利好变成套人陷阱，股价从涨停的6.68元滑落到5.97元。 公司年报显示净利润503亿，季报399.8亿，基本面看似 稳健，但股价为何背道而驰？ 主力资金净流出8662万元，透露了机构的态度。 | 中国石化 v | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600028 图 沪股通 L1 | | | | | 6.10 島 量比 5.95 | 市值⊙7195.1亿 | | 1.62 | | 低 5.90 换 | 流通 5637.8亿 | | 0.42% | | -0.21 -3.41% 开 额 23.39亿 | 6.10 市盈 TIM 19.96 | | | | 港股 4.600-1.92% H/A 溢价率 -30.45% 溢价分析 | | | | | 分时 日K 周K 月K | 五日 更多▼ | | | | 均价: 5.94 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： （1）委内瑞拉方面，本周美国加强对委内瑞拉原油的禁运行动，扣押计划运输委内瑞拉原油的"贝拉1号"游 轮，但美国参议院投票限制对委内瑞拉动武，特朗普取消对委第二轮打击计划，未来美国对委事务的重心将放 在控制该国石油生产和销售上，计划由美国石油公司在委内瑞拉投资至少1000亿美元。（2）伊朗方面，本周 抗议和骚乱在伊朗蔓延，全国范围内出现互联网和移动通信服务中断，美国或将军事介入。2025年1-11月伊朗 原油月均产量为327万桶/日，若伊朗局势进一步升级，可能对伊朗原油生产和出口造成重大影响。长期来看， 国际局势持续动荡，地缘政治的不确定性有望为油价景气奠定基础。 OPEC+暂停增产计划，体现平衡油价诉求 上周OPEC+举行简短会议，避开讨论影响该产油国集团多个成员国的政治危机，最终决定维持石油产量不 变。2025年11月，OPEC+总产量为4306.5万桶/日，较2025年1月增长244万桶/日，OPEC+产量的大幅扩增是 2025年原油市场波动的主因之一，而25Q4以来OPEC+转而降低扩产速度，体现其平衡油价的意愿。OPEC+未 来有望根据原油市场变化决定原油产量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and China Aviation Oil Group is a continuation of strategic restructuring in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) aimed at optimizing the layout and structure of state-owned economy, driven by national strategy [1] Group 1: Economic Security - The restructuring aims to ensure the safe operation of the national economy, especially in the context of increasing external complexities and uncertainties [2] - The merger will enhance the security of China's oil energy supply chain, as Sinopec is the world's largest refining company and the largest aviation fuel producer in China, while China Aviation Oil is the largest aviation fuel service provider in Asia [2] Group 2: Asset Allocation Efficiency - The restructuring focuses on improving the efficiency of state-owned asset allocation, addressing the need for better operational efficiency in SOEs, which have historically been seen as stabilizers of the economy [3] - The total assets of central enterprises under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) are projected to reach 90 trillion yuan by 2025, highlighting the necessity for enhanced asset allocation efficiency [3] Group 3: World-Class Enterprises - The goal of cultivating world-class enterprises has been emphasized in national strategies, with specific characteristics such as product excellence, brand prominence, innovation leadership, and modern governance [4] - The merger of Sinopec and China Aviation Oil is expected to create a benchmark for world-class enterprises in the petrochemical sector, enhancing resource allocation, technological leadership, and industry influence [4] Group 4: Technological and Industrial Revolution - The restructuring is also a response to the new technological and industrial revolution, focusing on integrating into strategic emerging industries and increasing investment in high-tech sectors [5] - State-owned enterprises are encouraged to leverage their advantages in data and electricity supply to support the rapid development of industries like artificial intelligence and quantum technology [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on the oil and chemical industry for 2026, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [10]. Core Insights - OPEC+ has decided to continue its production cuts, with a focus on cautious and flexible adjustments based on market conditions. The group has reaffirmed its commitment to compensate for overproduction since January 2024, which is expected to support oil prices in the short term [2][5]. - The downstream polyester sector is tightening in supply and demand, with expectations for improvement in market conditions. Key recommendations include high-quality companies in polyester filament and bottle-grade materials [10]. - The report highlights that oil prices are expected to stabilize, with a limited downside, and suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and improving operational quality [10]. Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ has confirmed a pause in its planned production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day for February and March 2026 due to seasonal demand weakness. The group emphasizes the need for full compensation for overproduction since January 2024 [2][5]. - The actual production for Q1 2026 is expected to be lower than nominal quotas, with adjustments in compensation plans leading to a reduction of 0.1-0.2 million barrels per day compared to nominal quotas [5]. Price Trends - As of January 9, 2026, Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.34 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.26%. WTI futures rose to $59.12 per barrel, up 3.14% [14]. - The report notes that the average price for Brent and WTI for the week was $61.55 and $57.66 per barrel, respectively, indicating slight fluctuations in the market [14]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from improved cost structures and competitive advantages [10]. - It also highlights the offshore oil service sector, suggesting continued optimism for companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering due to high capital expenditures in offshore exploration [10]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the U.S. oil production for January 2, 2026, was 13.81 million barrels per day, showing a slight decrease from the previous week but a year-on-year increase of 330,000 barrels per day [23]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased to 544, down 2 from the previous week and down 40 year-on-year, indicating a potential slowdown in exploration activities [25]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the oil and chemical sector, detailing market capitalization, earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for companies like China National Petroleum and Hengli Petrochemical [11].

Core Insights - Maoming, located in Guangdong Province, is recognized for its significant contributions to the lychee and petrochemical industries, with a projected lychee production of over 620,000 tons by 2025 and a total output value of the petrochemical sector stabilizing around 180 billion yuan [2][6][9]. Economic Development - Since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, Maoming's economic total has surpassed 400 billion yuan, ranking first in the western part of Guangdong, with 290 new projects worth over 100 million yuan introduced [3]. - The urbanization rate of the permanent population has increased by 4.55 percentage points from 2020 to 2024, the highest in the province [3]. Agricultural Innovation - Maoming has developed a "frozen dormancy" technology for lychees, allowing for a stable supply of raw materials year-round and establishing the largest lychee puree processing base in the country [5]. - The local government has shifted from traditional selling methods to innovative models, increasing the value of lychees by over 30% and achieving a 15% higher price through e-commerce channels [5][6]. Tourism and Cultural Integration - The city is leveraging its agricultural resources to create tourism experiences, attracting over 5 million visitors annually through initiatives like the "520 I Love Lychee" cultural tourism IP [6]. - The integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism is seen as a core strategy for rural value enhancement, with various themed service areas and demonstration villages established [6]. Industrial Diversification - To address the dominance of the petrochemical industry, Maoming is promoting a "five-chain co-construction" strategy, focusing on upgrading petrochemical processes and developing new energy and materials sectors [7][9]. - Significant investments are being made in projects such as the 30 billion yuan petrochemical upgrade, which is expected to increase chemical product output by over 2 million tons annually [9]. Technological Advancements - The city has seen a 56.9% increase in the number of national high-tech enterprises during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with substantial growth in high-tech manufacturing and new energy sectors [10]. - Maoming is actively pursuing emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, with annual growth rates of 46.9% in high-tech manufacturing investments from 2021 to 2024 [10].