1、若羌县二期10万吨/年工业硅合规产能项目 5月7日，新疆维吾尔自治区工业和信息化厅发布了关于新疆特变电工楼兰新材料技术有限公司 若羌县二期10万吨/年工业硅合规产能的公告。 据悉，新疆特变电工楼兰新材料技术有限公司与阿勒泰福中科技发展有限公司均属新疆天池能 源有限公司全资子公司。经新疆天池能源有限公司申请，自治区工业硅合规产能认定会商机制成员 单位同意将阿勒泰福中科技发展有限公司放弃建设的福海县10万吨/年工业硅指标转至新疆特变电 工楼兰新材料技术有限公司，用于建设若羌县二期10万吨/年工业硅项目。 建设单位：内蒙古兴发科技有限公司 项目投资：14.95亿元 建设规模：项目一期用地面积：241867平方米，建筑面积101999.65平方米，计容面积 151347.35平方米，建设10万吨/年工业硅项目。 3、 弘元绿能：拟以12.45亿元转让内蒙古鑫元27.0737%股权 5月7日，弘元绿能发布公告称，公司拟将所持内蒙古鑫元硅材料科技有限公司（以下简称"内 蒙古鑫元"）27.0737%的股权以12.45亿元的价格全部转让给江苏中能硅业科技发展有限公司（以 下简称"江苏中能"）。本次交易完成后，公司将不再持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a slight decline in spot prices, with a mixed sentiment in trading and a stable supply-demand dynamic [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - The main contract price fluctuated between 8315 CNY/ton and 8490 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.10% [1] - The national average price decreased by 193 CNY/ton to 9276 CNY/ton, with specific grades showing varied declines: 553 grade at 9027 CNY/ton, 441 grade at 9520 CNY/ton, and 421 grade at 9928 CNY/ton [1] - FOB prices remained stable despite the fluctuations in domestic prices [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Southern regions saw a slight increase in operating rates, while northern regions maintained stable operations with minimal reductions from large plants [1] - Overall supply changes were limited, indicating a balanced supply situation [1] Group 3: Demand Factors - There was a slight increase in demand for industrial silicon due to the completion of maintenance at some organic silicon monomer plants [1] - Demand from polysilicon plants remained stable, while aluminum alloy companies continued to purchase industrial silicon as needed [1] - The overall trend indicates a slight increase in demand from the three major downstream sectors [1] Group 4: Market Sentiment - The market atmosphere for industrial silicon transactions was described as subdued, with downstream buyers adopting a cautious approach [1] - Despite a rise in the main contract price, spot prices continued to decline due to insufficient demand momentum and ongoing inventory pressure [2] - Short-term expectations suggest that spot prices will remain in a bottoming-out phase [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为6.8万吨，环比有所减少1.44%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为6.7万吨，环比增长19.64%.需求有所抬升.多晶硅库存为25.7万 吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为105000吨，处于低位，有机 硅生产利润为-301元/吨，处于亏损状态，其综合开工率为60.11%，环比持平，低于历史同期平 均水平；铝合金锭库存为1.47万吨，处于低位，进口亏损为702元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和 利润为516.79元/吨，再生铝开工率为55%，环比增加4.76%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为3555元/吨，枯水期成本支撑有所上升。 2、基差: 05月12日，华东不通氧现货价9000元/吨，06合约基差为680元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为59.6万吨，环比减少1.16%,样本企业库存为264900吨，环比增加1.44%,主要港口库 存为13.3万吨，环比减少2.20%。 偏空。 4 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | | | | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250513：工业硅上方压力较强，多晶硅波动加剧 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/13 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9,000.00 | -0.55% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,320.00 | 1.40% | | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 元/吨 | 680.00 | -165.00 | | | N型多晶硅料 | | 元/千克 | 38.00 | 0.00% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 38,450.00 | 1.64% | | | | 基差 | 元/吨 | -450.00 | -620.00 | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9,000.00 | -0.55% | | | 不通氧553#（黄埔 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The current marginal demand for industrial silicon is weakening, the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse, and high inventory and high warehouse receipts suppress the price rebound. Silicon prices are in a weak and volatile state [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - This week, the industrial silicon spot market is running weakly. Affected by the continuous weak downstream demand, the market is in a continuous slump. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon is 8900 - 9300 yuan/ton, and the price of East China 421 silicon is 9800 - 10200 yuan/ton [1]. - Last Friday, the closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract si2506 was 8205, a decrease of 0.55%. The daily position reduction was 10,933 lots. The current position is 170,200 lots, and the trading volume is 14.349 billion yuan [1]. Supply Side - Northwest large - scale factories continue to cut production. The eastern production area has shut down 3 submerged arc furnaces, and the western production area has shut down 5 submerged arc furnaces, a total of 8. There may be more shutdown plans in the future. In the southwest production area, manufacturers are cautious about the current market, but some manufacturers said they will increase or resume production. It is expected that about 10 submerged arc furnaces will resume production from the end of the month to the second half of the month [1]. Demand Side - Polysilicon prices have no obvious fluctuations and remain within a range. The N - type compact material is quoted at 38 - 40 yuan/kg, the N - type granular silicon is quoted at 35 - 38 yuan/kg, the N - type re - feed material is quoted at 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and the N - type mixed material is quoted at 36 - 38 yuan/kg. Component inventories are under pressure, and some enterprises are gradually planning production cuts. The main polysilicon futures contract ps2506 is approaching its first delivery, with obvious long - short differences in the market [1]. - The market price of organic silicon DMC is generally stable, with the mainstream opening price in the market referring to 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). The organic silicon market shows signs of phased stabilization, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists [1]. - The price of aluminum alloy ingots is temporarily stable. The industry's operating rate has decreased. Downstream enterprises mainly consume pre - holiday orders, and their willingness to stock up after the holiday is insufficient [1]. Inventory On May 9, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 67,338 lots, a single - week decrease of 1,898 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory continues to decrease but remains at a high level [1].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon supply and demand fundamentals have not improved entering the second quarter, with a lack of significant growth in downstream demand, primarily driven by just-in-time purchasing [1] Supply Side - Some northern manufacturers have reduced production by shutting down furnaces, while southern regions maintain low operating rates, leading to a decrease in overall output from existing capacity [1] - New capacity investment plans are slowing down, but there is some actual output supplementing the overall production, which is expected to increase significantly during the flood season [1] Demand Side - The price of organic silicon monomer has significantly increased due to production cut plans, restoring profits; however, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has cooled, leading to a substantial price drop [1] - Monomer manufacturers are maintaining current operating levels with a willingness to support prices, resulting in stable demand for industrial silicon [1] - There are no large-scale resumption plans from polysilicon companies, and aluminum alloy companies are producing steadily, purchasing industrial silicon as needed, leading to little change in overall demand [1] Inventory Situation - Industrial silicon inventory remains high, exceeding 900,000 tons, and is roughly flat compared to the end of the first quarter, indicating difficulties in inventory consumption [1] Overall Market Outlook - The industrial silicon market faces significant inventory pressure, coupled with weak downstream demand, making it difficult for prices to rise; however, prices have fallen below the cost line, indicating limited downside potential [1]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点评 8 日多晶硅先抑后扬，主力 2506 收于 36950 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.43%，持 仓增仓 4212 手至 67502 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 40500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格 40500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 3550 元/吨。 工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2506 收于 8315 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.36%，持仓减仓 1671 手至 18.11 手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9565 元/吨，较上一交易日下 调 52 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 8450 元/吨，现货升水收至 200 元 /吨。节前贸易商清货压价，下游备货意愿低于往年。节后下游需求失速 压力仍在，短期工业硅受下游负反馈难以摆脱探底节奏，多晶硅生产调节 度较高，仓单不足添加博弈筹码，短期内大跌有限，区间震荡为主。关注 企业限产动态，以及是否新出台大规模基建或光伏装机强制考核政策，有 望引发新一轮超跌反弹。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年5月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为6.9万吨，环比有所减少1.42%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为5.6万吨，环比减少16.41%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅库存为26.1万 吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为105000吨，处于低位，有机 硅生产利润为-284元/吨，处于亏损状态，其综合开工率为60.43%，环比持平，低于历史同期平 均水平；铝合金锭库存为1.52万吨，处于低位，进口亏损为648元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和 利润为542.78元/吨，再生铝开工率为52.5%，还比减少5.62%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地 ...

| | 工业硅 | 多晶硅 | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 成本&利润：西南产区逐步进入平水期，后续电力成本将下 |  供给端：行业自律减产持续，多数企业均按照配额进行生 | | | 滑，北方高成本企业停产后，行业整体在产成本将下滑。成 | 产，4月月产量维持在10万吨以内。目前硅料价格重回下 | | | 本端对硅价支撑不足。 | 行之路，部分多晶硅复产计划或将重新商议，5月开工增 | |  | 供给端：新疆地区开工弱势，伊犁地区目前开炉数维持低位， | 加并存，综合影响下预计产量环比小幅下滑。 | | | 后续存在进一步停产检修的预期；云南地区目前有少数新增 |  需求端：偏弱。远期组件订单明显减少，光伏组件价格维 | | | 开炉，目前仍在商讨丰水期优惠电价，预计主流开工时间在 | 持跌势，5月交付的订单价格已明显下移，且有加速下行 | | | 6月；四川地区丰水期电价较去年或有一定下降趋势，产业 | 趋势；组件端对电池片需求减少，电池片库存抬升，价格 | | | 链配套硅炉有继续新增开炉的计划。 | 下滑，5月排产降至59GW，但单月供过于求格局不改；需 | |  | 需 ...

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 工业硅/多晶硅早报 走势评级： 工业硅：偏弱 多晶硅：震荡 李艳婷—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03091846 投资咨询证号：Z0020513 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：liyanting@cindasc.com 徐浩然—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03120971 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：xuhaoran@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 工业硅持续探底，关注西南地区复产情况 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 5 月 7 日 报告内容摘要: ◆相关咨询： 商务部：中方决定同意与美方进行接触 ◆基本面： 工业硅： 现货价格方面，华东不通氧 553#硅在 9100-9200 元/吨，较上一 交易日跌 100 元/吨。供给方面：4 月份工业硅产量下探到 30.1 万吨，较 3 月下降 4.1 万吨，新疆地区减产 5 万吨左右，而西南地区丰水期即将来临， 四川地区复产至 1w ...