中信证券发布2026年度轻工制造策略研报称，2025年第一季度至第三季度轻工板块收入、利润承压，但 其中造纸、包装印刷率先修复，符合中信证券年中的判断。展望2026年，"反内卷"、创新与出海将成为 轻工行业的发展主线。国内市场，"反内卷"是主旋律，造纸行业预计底部改善，金属包装行业将迎来春 天。AI技术（AI眼镜、AI玩具等）将为行业注入新活力，而传统赛道的新势能也值得关注，如IP消 费、产品的跨界融合与功能性升级；国际市场，产能出海步入提效阶段，具有性价比优势、技术优势的 品牌出海将是重中之重。 ...

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a roadmap for expanding the national carbon market, aiming to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [1][2] - The national carbon market currently includes approximately 3,700 key emission units, covering around 8 billion tons of carbon emissions, which accounts for over 60% of the national total [2][3] - The eight key industries targeted for inclusion in the carbon market account for about 75% of China's carbon dioxide emissions [2][3] Summary by Sections Carbon Market Expansion - The Ministry has initiated preparatory work for expanding the carbon market to include the chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation, and paper industries [4] - The expansion will follow a principle of "mature one, include one," based on industry development status and carbon emission characteristics [1][4] Current Market Status - As of August 2025, 1,277 key emission units from newly included industries have opened trading accounts [5] - The carbon market has expanded to include three major industries: steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with a total of 1,500 key emission units [6] Allocation and Pricing Mechanism - The allocation method for carbon quotas will be similar to that of the power generation sector, with free allocation based on carbon emissions per unit of output for 2024 and 2025 [6][7] - By 2027, a new mechanism combining total quota control and both free and paid allocation will be implemented, potentially raising carbon prices from around 50 yuan/ton to between 130 and 180 yuan/ton [7][10] Industry Impact - Different industries will experience varying impacts from the carbon market, with power, steel, cement, and aluminum sectors being better prepared compared to the more complex petrochemical and chemical industries [7][8] - The paper industry, primarily composed of small and medium-sized enterprises, may face significant cost pressures and management challenges [7] Data Quality and Management - Ensuring data quality is critical for the carbon market's success, with the Ministry planning to enhance the monitoring and verification (MRV) system [5][11] - The Ministry will also upgrade infrastructure to support the expanded carbon market, focusing on regulatory capacity and data security [4][11] Future Directions - The carbon market aims to establish a transparent and unified pricing mechanism by 2030, with a focus on effective emission reduction and a robust regulatory framework [10][12] - The transition to a paid allocation system and total quota control is a key focus for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period [12]

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) has released a roadmap for expanding the national carbon emissions trading market, aiming to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [1][2][3] - The carbon market currently includes approximately 3,700 key emission units, covering around 8 billion tons of emissions, which accounts for over 60% of national carbon emissions [1][2][3] - The MEE has initiated preparatory work for including additional sectors such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and papermaking, adhering to a principle of gradual inclusion based on industry maturity [1][4] Industry Coverage - The eight key industries targeted for carbon market inclusion account for about 75% of China's carbon dioxide emissions, including power generation, steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, papermaking, and aviation [2][3] - By 2025, the MEE plans to finalize the inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum smelting into the carbon trading market, which will significantly enhance the market's coverage [3][4] Quota Distribution - The quota distribution for 2024 and 2025 will be free and based on carbon emissions per unit of output, following a gradual approach [6][7] - New enterprises that commence operations in 2024 and 2025 will not be included in the quota distribution for those years, ensuring that only established units are considered [6] Market Dynamics - The carbon price is expected to rise significantly by 2027, from approximately 50 yuan per ton to between 130 and 180 yuan per ton, reflecting the transition to a more stringent quota control and paid allocation system [7][9] - The current carbon market has a high participation rate, with over 90% engagement in spot trading, indicating a robust market structure [10] Future Directions - The MEE aims to enhance data quality management and regulatory frameworks to support the expansion of the carbon market, ensuring accurate emissions reporting from newly included sectors [5][9] - The transition to a paid allocation system and total quota control is a key focus for the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with an emphasis on establishing a fair and effective carbon pricing mechanism [11]

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures 01 contract decreased by 1.17%, and the pulp price is under pressure at the previous high. Attention should be paid to the cost digestion performance of downstream paper enterprises [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5428 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5396 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.17%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 4900 - 6500 yuan/ton, with the price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5550 yuan/ton [7]. - Fenlin Fenbao Metsa notified Chinese customers that the November quotation of softwood pulp would be increased by $20. In September, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries increased by 8.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 3.8% and hardwood pulp up 11.8%. Shipments to the Chinese market still increased [7]. - In October, the European wood pulp inventory was 703,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The European wood pulp consumption was 844,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. As of November 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 1.9766 million tons, a 4.22% increase from the previous week [7]. - The performance of downstream base papers remained differentiated. The packaging paper market continued to be favorable, while the prices of other base papers were stable. The improvement of social orders for offset paper was limited, and publishing tenders continued to progress [7]. 3.2 Industry News - On November 19, leading enterprises such as Nine Dragons and Shanying raised the prices of corrugated paper and kraft linerboard by 50 yuan per ton in multiple bases, and small and medium - sized paper enterprises such as Shanxi Qiangwei Paper followed, with a price increase of 30 - 80 yuan per ton. The terminal market also strengthened, with the average prices of linerboard and corrugated paper increasing by 80 yuan per ton week - on - week. Affected by shutdown maintenance and inventory decline, the price range of white board paper expanded to 2500 - 3850 yuan per ton. The average price of waste yellow board paper remained high at 1934 yuan per ton, and the adjustment of recycled pulp import policies intensified the supply contraction [8]. - On November 18, 2025, the 2025 China Pulp Market Situation Seminar was held in Chongqing, with nearly 1200 industry elites participating to explore the pulp market trend and promote in - depth industrial collaboration [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - delivery price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and white board paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [14][16][18][23][24][26]

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a slight decline of 0.08% on November 20, with Jingxing Paper leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Annie Co. (002235) saw a significant increase of 9.95%, closing at 8.51, with a trading volume of 808,200 shares and a turnover of 680 million [1] - Yibin Paper (600793) rose by 3.31% to 22.78, with a trading volume of 63,900 shares and a turnover of 14.5 million [1] - Other notable performers included Bohui Paper (600966) up 2.25% and Minshida (920394) up 1.16% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector had a net inflow of 191 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of approximately 59.4 million [2] - The main capital inflow was concentrated in Annie Co. with a net inflow of 3.44 billion, representing 50.64% of its trading volume [3] - Other stocks like Yibin Paper and Bohui Paper also experienced positive net inflows from institutional investors [3]

Core Points - The event on November 20, 2025, involved overseas Chinese media visiting the Chinese Xuan Paper Cultural Park in Jingxian, Anhui Province, to explore the millennia-old process of Xuan paper production and appreciate its cultural significance [3][5][6]. Group 1 - The overseas Chinese media representatives engaged in various activities, including observing the traditional paper-making techniques and experiencing the process of making Xuan paper themselves [5][6][8]. - The event highlighted the historical significance and craftsmanship involved in the production of Xuan paper, showcasing its cultural heritage [3][6][10]. - The media representatives also viewed demonstrations of raw material selection for Xuan paper, emphasizing the meticulous nature of the production process [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for pulp is experiencing a downward trend, with significant fluctuations in prices and inventory levels indicating a bearish outlook for the near future [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 20, the main contract for pulp futures opened at 5400.00 CNY/ton, with a price fluctuation range between 5402.00 CNY and 5288.00 CNY, resulting in a decline of approximately 2.25% [1]. - As of November 19, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 198,400 contracts in long positions and 208,400 contracts in short positions, leading to a long-to-short ratio of 0.95 and a net position of -10,000 contracts, which increased by 1,111 contracts from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Inventory Levels - As of November 20, 2025, the inventory level at major Chinese pulp ports was recorded at 2.173 million tons, reflecting an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, marking a 3.0% rise and indicating a continuous accumulation trend over the past two weeks [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in warehouse receipts for pulp futures to 205,216 tons, down by 8,067 tons from the previous trading day, while factory warehouse receipts remained stable at 6,000 tons [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - New Century Futures noted that the current market prices are stable, with needle pulp prices dropping by $20 to $680/ton and broadleaf pulp prices rising by $20 to $540/ton, suggesting weakened cost support for pulp prices [1]. - The paper industry is facing low profitability and high inventory pressure, leading to poor demand for high-priced pulp, as paper mills are primarily purchasing raw materials based on essential needs, which is bearish for pulp prices [1]. - Xinhuh Futures indicated that the recent price increase is primarily due to concerns over insufficient warehouse receipts for the January contract, but current prices are nearing those of high-quality brands outside of Russia, which may limit further price increases amid weakening macroeconomic sentiment [2].

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on November 19, 2025, was 5396.00, with a change of -0.22189% from the previous day [3]. - The closing prices and related data from November 13 - 19, 2025, are presented, showing price fluctuations and changes in basis and dollar - converted prices [3]. Group 2: Import Profitability - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion pulp is - 136.75, for Canadian Lion pulp is - 425.04, and for Chilean Silver Star pulp is 16.68 [4]. - The calculation is based on port dollar prices, Shandong region RMB prices, and the previous day's exchange rate of 7.11 [4]. Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From November 13 - 19, 2025, the national and Shandong region average prices of different types of pulp (coniferous, broad - leaf, etc.) remained unchanged [4]. - The prices of cultural paper, packaging paper, and living paper also showed no change during this period [4]. Group 4: Profit Margin Estimates - The profit margin estimates for different types of paper (double - offset, double - copper, etc.) remained stable from November 14 - 19, 2025 [4]. Group 5: Price Spreads - The price spreads between different types of pulp (coniferous - broadleaf, coniferous -本色, etc.) are presented, with some showing minor changes from November 13 - 19, 2025 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from internal "14th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external "fiscal + monetary" easing policies from major economies, particularly the US and Japan, leading to a rebound in valuations and performance by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is projected to experience a second round of valuation recovery and performance resurgence by 2026, supported by a complete domestic AI industry chain and an influx of quality A-share companies listing in Hong Kong [1] - The Hang Seng Index is currently seen as a valuation low point among major global markets, with an estimated equity risk premium (ERP) of 5.7% [1] - The expected net profit growth for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech in 2026 is 8.5% and 29.9%, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for earnings recovery [1][4] Group 2: Strategic Investment Directions - Five long-term investment directions are recommended: 1) Technology sector, including AI and consumer electronics; 2) Healthcare, particularly biotechnology; 3) Resource products benefiting from overseas inflation and de-dollarization; 4) Essential consumer goods expected to recover in valuation; 5) Paper and aviation sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system and high-level technological self-reliance, which is expected to support strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace [2] Group 3: Emerging Industries - The solid-state battery industry is anticipated to reach a market value of 1.2 trillion yuan from 2024 to 2030, marking a new wave of electrification innovation [3] - The brain-computer interface sector is gaining government attention, with new policies expected to address clinical challenges [3] - The bio-manufacturing market is projected to reach a trillion-level scale, driven by continuous application expansion [3] Group 4: Performance Expectations - The market expects the performance growth of Hong Kong stocks to bottom out in 2025, with revenue and profit growth projected to reach 5.5% and 9.2% in 2026, respectively [4] - The earnings sentiment for Hong Kong stocks has begun to warm, with upward adjustments in profit forecasts since July 25 [4][5] Group 5: Capital Flows - Southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks reached 1.26 trillion HKD from the beginning of the year to the end of October, becoming a core driver for the market [6] - The trend of passive management funds increasing their allocation to Hong Kong stocks is evident, with a significant rise in the proportion of passive funds in the Southbound Stock Connect [6] - Retail investors are expected to play a larger role in the market, with ETF inflows into Hong Kong stocks exceeding 270 billion HKD since June [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a second round of valuation recovery and further earnings revival by 2026, driven by a rebound in the fundamental outlook and significant valuation discounts [1] Long-term Investment Directions - Technology sector, including AI-related sub-sectors and consumer electronics [1] - Healthcare sector, particularly biotechnology [1] - Resource products benefiting from rising overseas inflation expectations and de-dollarization, including non-ferrous metals and rare earths [1] - Consumer staples sector, which is relatively stagnant and undervalued, is expected to see valuation recovery [1] - Paper and aviation sectors benefiting from the appreciation of the Renminbi [1]