Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot-rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired in the future, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, the molten iron output is expected to remain strong, and the ore price is supported until steel mills reduce production. The market sentiment is relatively positive after the China-US presidential call, and the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to stabilize the supply and prices of raw materials and reduce speculative sentiment [4]. - The black sector may face a short - term downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. Although the downstream demand provides some support, the high inventory limits the upward space of prices. The price needs fundamental improvement for a strong rebound [13]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. The market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress. If the expectations are not fulfilled, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract [15]. - The glass price may experience short - term surges due to policy and price - increase factors, but the terminal demand is weak. The supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory performance varies by region. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and pay attention to policy trends [18]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations. The production is generally stable, the demand is flat, and the market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [20]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.094%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 271,422 tons, a net increase of 7,616 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.870449 million lots, a net decrease of 11,775 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The rebar production was basically the same as last week, the pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.029%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 29,204 tons, a net decrease of 5,355 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.369716 million lots, a net increase of 1,955 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The hot - rolled coil production declined, the apparent demand was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 805.50 yuan/ton, up 0.25% (+2.00), with a position change of - 9,319 lots to 529,700 lots. The weighted position was 848,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 40.05 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.74% [3]. - The latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month. The shipments from Australia declined from a high level, and the shipments from three major mines decreased to varying degrees. The shipments from Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries also decreased month - on - month. The near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. The daily average molten iron output was 242.36 tons, up 1.34 tons month - on - month. The steel mill profitability further declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased significantly. The destocking of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rebounded [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Manganese Silicon - On September 25, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) opened nearly 1% lower in the morning and then closed higher, with a daily increase of 0.37% to close at 5,938 yuan/ton. The manganese silicon price generally remained within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at around 6,000 yuan/ton and the support at around 5,600 yuan/ton [7]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, the manganese ore port inventory has been at a low level recently, and the manganese ore price is relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore end [9]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened nearly 1.5% lower in the morning and then rebounded, with a daily increase of 0.77% to close at 5,786 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon price also remained within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at around 5,800 yuan/ton and the support at around 5,400 yuan/ton [7]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's trend, with a relatively low operation cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.39% (+35). The weighted contract position changed by - 8,270 lots to 500,028 lots. In the现货 market, the market price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton; the market price of 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 155 yuan/ton [11]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. The production growth has slowed down, but the weekly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream demand provides some support, but the high inventory limits the upward space of prices. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand improvement and policy changes [13]. Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,365 yuan/ton, down 0.03% (-15). The weighted contract position changed by - 8,430 lots to 241,935 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.55 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg, and the basis of the main contract was 1,185 yuan/ton [14]. - The polysilicon price is mainly influenced by policy narratives. The market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress. If the expectations are not fulfilled, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract and the authenticity of sudden news [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1,270 yuan/ton, up 2.67% (+33). The large - plate price in North China was 1,210 yuan, up 50 from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1,200 yuan, up 50 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million cases, a net decrease of 1.553 million cases (-2.55%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 55,809 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 13,867 lots [17]. - Six departments have issued a document to ban the addition of flat glass production capacity and strengthen capacity replacement requirements. Some enterprises have announced price increases, which have pushed up the market in the short term. However, the terminal demand is weak, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply adjustment is limited, and the market supply is abundant. The inventory performance varies by region. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and pay attention to policy trends [18]. Soda Ash - On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1,315 yuan/ton, up 0.61% (+8). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1,225 yuan, up 8 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, a net decrease of 104,100 tons (-2.55%), including 922,400 tons of heavy - soda inventory, a net decrease of 83,700 tons, and 729,100 tons of light - soda inventory, a net decrease of 20,400 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 8,864 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 1,705 lots [19]. - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable with narrow fluctuations. The production is generally stable, and the demand is flat. The market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The iron alloy market is experiencing a bottom - oscillating trend due to the game between high supply and cost support [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Fundamental Situation - **Price Trends**: The report presents various price trend graphs, including the iron alloy main contract trends, spot market prices of 72%FeSi silicon iron in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shaanxi), silicon manganese spot prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi), and the basis trends of silicon iron and silicon manganese main - contract warehouse receipts in Inner Mongolia [8][10][14][17] - **Production and Supply**: Graphs show the production enterprise start - up rates of silicon iron and manganese silicon, monthly production volumes of silicon iron and manganese silicon in China, daily production volumes of crude steel and hot metal, and blast furnace capacity utilization rates [26][28][29][30] - **Inventory Status**: There are graphs depicting the silicon iron and silicon manganese inventories of alloy plants, the average available days of silicon iron and manganese silicon inventories in steel mills, and the warehouse receipt situations of silicon iron and manganese silicon [41][51][43] - **Cost Factors**: The report includes price trends of raw materials such as blue charcoal small materials, Yinchuan chemical coke, electricity prices, global manganese ore shipments, manganese ore prices at Tianjin Port, and national manganese ore inventories. It also shows the production costs and profits of silicon iron and manganese silicon [54][58][63][64][68] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Not provided in the given content

2025 年 9 月 26 日 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1.铁合金在线：9 月 25 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5400-5450，青海 5250-5350，甘肃 5300- 5400（-50），内蒙 5350-5400；75#硅铁：陕西 6150-6200，宁夏 6000-6100，青海 6000-6100， 甘肃 6000-6050，内蒙 6100-6150（现金含税自然块出厂，元/吨）；硅铁 FOB：72#1050-1070， 75#1120-1150（美元/吨，含税）。硅锰 6517#北方报价 5650-5750 元/吨；南方报价 5750-5800 元 /吨。（现金出厂含税报价） 2.铁合金在线：山东某钢厂日照公司敲定硅铁采购价为 5680 元/吨现金，较上一轮跌 60 元/吨，量 550 吨。山东某钢厂硅锰定标 5870 元/吨承兑含税到厂，采购量 1000 吨。山东某钢厂硅锰定标 5950 元/ 吨承兑含税到厂，采购量 3100 吨。 3、铁合金在线：据本网调研统计，内蒙地区 9 月在产硅铁企业 12 家，在产矿热炉 72 台，9 月硅 ...

黑色供应周报-铁合金 2025年9月26日 全国硅铁周度产量:万吨 14 20 18 13 16 12 14 11 IS 10 10 8 9 6 4 2 下载 8 下午餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐店加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐 累计同比(右轴) 2023 -2021 2022 2024 ·2025 累计同比(右轴) 2022 2024 -2021 - 2023 2025 内蒙古-硅锰日均产量:万吨 内蒙古-硅铁日均产量:万吨 1.60 0.65 1.50 0.60 1.40 0.55 1.30 0.50 1.20 0.45 1.10 0.40 1.00 0.35 0.90 0.80 0.30 一个目标。 2017年 12月 12月 12月 12日 12時 12時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 1000 下されるなど、そこではなくなるとなると、そのことではない。 ここではなかったときになるとことできる。 このことではない。 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 ·2024 ·2025 宁夏-硅锰日均产量:万 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to repeated expectations [2][4] - Rebar is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a month - on - month improvement in apparent demand [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8] - Ferrosilicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][12] - Silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations as overseas mining companies' quotation rises [2][12] - Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][15] - Coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of futures was 805.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.25%. The open interest decreased by 9,319 lots. Imported ore prices decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.32%, with a decrease in open interest. For hot - rolled coil, the closing price of HC2601 was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24%, with an increase in open interest. Spot prices were mostly stable, and basis and spreads changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to September 25 steel union weekly data, rebar production increased by 0.01 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.3 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 13.98 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.51 tons. Apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.41 tons, and that for hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.14 tons. In mid - September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities increased. In August 2025, national steel production data showed different trends. Other news includes export and import data of steel products [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing price of SF2511 was 5,786 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. For silicomanganese, the closing price of SM2511 was 5,924 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 25, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities were announced. In September, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia decreased, but production increased. New production capacity of silicomanganese is expected to increase. Overseas mining companies raised their quotations for November [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,234.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.8%. For coke, the closing price of J2601 was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.7%. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts changed. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - No relevant content found Summary by Category Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on September 26, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5330 and 5380 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of -20 and 30. The latest prices of the main contract and 01 contract were 5786 and 5736, with daily changes of 44 and 28, and weekly changes of 30 and -8 [2]. - For silicon manganese, on September 26, 2025, the factory - ex prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 were 5700, 5660, 5730, 5680, and 5680 respectively. The latest price of the main contract was 5938, with a daily change of 22 and a weekly change of -32 [2]. Supply - The report shows long - term trends of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises' output in China (monthly and weekly, with weekly capacity accounting for 95%), and the capacity utilization rates of these enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) from 2021 to 2025 [4]. - It also presents the long - term trends of silicon manganese production in China (weekly) from 2021 to 2025 [7]. Demand - The report provides long - term trends of the demand for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, steel - union caliber) from 2021 to 2025 [4][8]. - It also shows the long - term trends of the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) from 2021 to 2025, as well as the procurement volume and price of FeMn65Si17 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) [4][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the report shows the long - term trends of the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China (weekly), and the inventory of these enterprises in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly) from 2021 to 2025. It also presents the long - term trends of CZCE silicon ferroalloy's total warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts (daily) [6]. - For silicon manganese, the report shows the long - term trends of CZCE silicon manganese's total warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory (daily), as well as the long - term trends of the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) from 2021 to 2025 [8]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, the report shows long - term trends of electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, the market price of small - sized blue coke in Shaanxi, the start - up rate of blue coke in China (weekly), the production profit of blue coke in China (daily), and the production cost, profit of folding the main contract, and spot profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 to 2025 [6]. - For silicon manganese, the report shows long - term trends of the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (steel - union, yuan/ton), and the profit of folding the main contract of Guangxi silicon manganese from 2021 to 2025 [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy futures prices generally rose on September 25. Driven by the overall commodity market sentiment and cost - side factors, the prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside is limited by high supply [7]. - For silicon ferroalloy, although the short - term negative feedback risk has eased and the overall commodity market sentiment is positive, the problem of high supply still exists [7]. - For manganese silicon, the short - term demand is relatively stable, and the cost - side drives the price to be strong in the short term, but the high supply also restricts the upside [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5786, up 44 (0.77%) daily and 30 weekly, with a trading volume of 201,194 (up 11,513 daily) and an open interest of 188,023 (down 10,222 daily). The closing price of the SM main contract was 5938, up 22 (0.37%) daily and down 32 weekly, with a trading volume of 219,803 (up 50,391 daily) and an open interest of 332,429 (down 1344 daily) [4]. - **Spot Data**: The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5480, unchanged daily and up 30 weekly. The spot price of silicon - manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5700, down 30 daily and 30 weekly. Different regions showed different price changes [4]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: For silicon ferroalloy, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 306, down 44 daily and unchanged weekly. For manganese silicon, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 238, down 52 daily and up 2 weekly. The SF - SM spread was - 152, up 22 daily and 62 weekly [4]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of Australian manganese ore lumps in Tianjin was 39.8, down 0.2 daily and 0.4 weekly. The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore from South Africa was 34.2, unchanged daily and down 0.1 weekly. The price of blue charcoal small materials in Shaanxi was 700, unchanged daily and up 40 weekly [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Driven by the overall commodity sentiment and cost - side, it is strong in the short term, but the upside is limited by high supply. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Options**: Sell a straddle option combination [8]. - **Important Information**: United Mining (CML) announced its November 2025 offer to China for Australian lumps (Mn>46% Fe<6% Si02<18%) at 4.65 US dollars per ton - degree, up 0.08 US dollars per ton - degree month - on - month. Comilog's November 2025 offer for Gabonese lumps shipped to China was 4.35 US dollars per ton - degree (up 0.08) [9][10]. Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the price trends of ferroalloy main contracts, basis, inter - month spreads, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, showing data changes over different time periods [11][14][15]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on black building materials dated September 25, 2025, covering various commodities such as steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash [1][2] Group 2: Market Quotes Steel - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,164 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.285%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 263,806 tons, a decrease of 3,584 tons. The main contract open interest was 1.882224 million lots, an increase of 812 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3,357 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.508%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 34,559 tons, a decrease of 292 tons. The main contract open interest was 1.367761 million lots, an increase of 668 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] Iron Ore - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.12% (+1.00). The open interest changed by -7,511 lots to 539,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 856,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 39.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.72% [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On September 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) continued a small rebound, closing up 0.58% at 5,916 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 74 yuan/ton over the futures [9] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) also continued to rebound, closing up 0.77% at 5,742 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 58 yuan/ton over the futures [9] Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 9,020 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.06% (+95). The weighted contract open interest changed by -1,424 lots to 508,298 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 180 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of -120 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12] Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,380 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.23% (+1,120). The weighted contract open interest changed by -2,089 lots to 250,365 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N-type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N-type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg, with a basis of 1,120 yuan/ton for the main contract [15] Glass - On Wednesday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1,237 yuan/ton, up 4.56% (+54). The price of large plates in North China was 1,160 yuan, up 10 from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1,150 yuan, up 10. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 60.908 million boxes, a decrease of 675,000 boxes (-1.10%). In terms of open interest, the top 20 long positions increased by 94,955 lots, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 43,450 lots [18] Soda Ash - On Wednesday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1,307 yuan/ton, up 2.67% (+34). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,217 yuan, up 34. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 41,900 tons (-1.10%), including 1.0061 million tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 28,400 tons, and 749,500 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 13,500 tons. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long positions decreased by 2,046 lots, and the top 20 short positions increased by 23,979 lots [20] Group 3: Strategy Views Steel - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Macroscopically, the central bank will maintain liquidity through various monetary policy tools. In terms of exports, the volume increased slightly last week but remained weak. Fundamentally, rebar production declined, apparent demand increased slightly, and inventory pressure eased marginally; hot-rolled coil production increased, apparent demand was neutral, and inventory increased slightly. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot-rolled coil is weak, and the peak-season demand is not strong. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, rebar demand remains weak, and hot-rolled coil, although having some resilience, is still weak overall. Steel mill profits are gradually narrowing, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face downward risk. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [3] Iron Ore - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month. The shipments from Australia declined from a high level, and the shipments of the three major mainstream mines all decreased to varying degrees. The shipments from Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non-mainstream countries also decreased month-on-month. The nearby arrivals increased month-on-month. In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron production was 241.02 million tons, an increase of 0.47 million tons, with both blast furnace overhauls and restarts. The profitability rate of steel mills has been declining for several weeks. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased significantly. Some inventory may continue to be transferred to the plant before the National Day. In terms of terminal data, the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to increase, and the inventory slope slowed down. The apparent demand for rebar increased, and inventory decreased slightly. Currently, the pressure on the raw material end from downstream still needs to be observed. Fundamentally, short-term pig iron production remains strong, and before steel mills reduce production, iron ore prices still have support. Macroscopically, after the China-US presidential call, the market sentiment is relatively positive; the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" continues to increase the supply and price stability of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal, reducing the impact of speculative sentiment on prices. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and the inventory depletion speed [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot shows that there may be two more rate cuts this year, indicating that the US has officially entered an interest rate cut cycle. Although the rate cut was in line with expectations, Powell's statement was hawkish, leading to a significant decline in non-ferrous metal prices, and the Wenhua Commodity Index also returned to a volatile state. However, the black sector continued to strengthen. On the one hand, overseas interest rate cuts have created room for domestic policy implementation, enhancing the market's expectation of future economic stimulus; on the other hand, the "anti-involution" sentiment has resurfaced recently, driving the raw material end such as coking coal and ferroalloys to perform relatively actively. However, with the approaching of the peak season and the downstream's need to replenish inventory before the National Day holiday, the actual demand is still relatively weak, especially in the building materials sector, where the demand has not shown peak-season characteristics. Steel mills are still maintaining high-intensity production driven by profits, and pig iron production continues to remain above 2.4 million tons. High supply and relatively weak demand have led to a continuous inverse seasonal accumulation of steel inventory, putting pressure on prices in reality [10] - In the short term, affected by the real demand, the black sector may face a downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, the statement of the high-level that "China still has sufficient fiscal policy space," and the opening of domestic policy space after the US enters the interest rate cut cycle, the black sector may gradually become more cost-effective for long positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid-October. Compared with the short-term correction risk, looking for long opportunities after the price pullback may be a better choice [11] - In the case of manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, it is observed that the port inventory of manganese ore has been at a low level recently, and the price of manganese ore has been relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens according to the above logic, attention should be paid to whether there are any sudden disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may become the driving force for manganese silicon to launch its own market. Otherwise, it is expected that manganese silicon will be difficult to have an independent strong market in the absence of major contradictions and will follow the black sector market [11] - For ferrosilicon, there are no obvious contradictions and driving forces in its supply and demand fundamentals, and it is also likely to follow the black sector market, with relatively low operation cost-effectiveness [11] Industrial Silicon - The sentiment in the commodity market improved yesterday, and the industrial silicon futures rebounded. From the perspective of the futures price trend, the price has experienced short-term sharp fluctuations and is relatively unstable, so risk control should be noted. Looking back at the fundamentals, there have been no significant changes in the supply and demand of industrial silicon. After several weeks of continuous growth, the production has slowed down for the first time, but the weekly production is still at a relatively high level close to the same period last year. In the downstream, the current operating rate of polysilicon is relatively high since the industry's self-discipline production control. Whether the high-operating-rate enterprises will start to reduce production in the future is uncertain, but in the short term, it can still support the demand for industrial silicon. The production of organic silicon DMC continues to be at a high level compared to the same period. The explicit inventory of industrial silicon is generally at a high level, and the marginal depletion amplitude is limited. Compared with downstream polysilicon, the relative valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the polysilicon futures price has been running at a relatively high level for a long time, providing upward room for the price of industrial silicon; at the same time, the "anti-involution" policy leaves room for price improvement in the future. However, for the price to be strongly supported, fundamental improvement is still required. In the short term, the market is affected by capital sentiment, with rapid entry and exit, and the futures price returns to a volatile state. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the improvement of supply and demand and policy changes [13][14] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price continues to be dominated by policy narratives, and the short-term market focus remains on the capacity integration policy and the downstream price pass-through progress. Fundamentally, some of the previous inventory has been transferred to the downstream of the industrial chain, and the de-stocking space for the entire industry is limited, which depends on the maintenance situation of the current high-operating-rate enterprises. In terms of price, the previous spot price increase was relatively smooth in the middle and front of the downstream, but there is still a stalemate in the component link, indicating that the actual terminal demand has not significantly improved. Currently, the establishment time of the platform company is uncertain, and the announcements of listed silicon enterprises also show that the expected verification cannot be asserted. However, before the final implementation and when there are obstacles in the component link price pass-through, the futures price may experience a phased decline due to the lack of actual progress for a long time. In the short term, the polysilicon price will continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of decline if the expectations are not fulfilled as scheduled. The intraday price of polysilicon fluctuates greatly and changes rapidly, so attention should be paid to position and risk control, and attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark for the main contract. At the same time, the authenticity of sudden news should be carefully verified [16] Glass - In the afternoon, six departments issued a document to strictly prohibit the addition of flat glass production capacity and strengthen capacity replacement requirements. At the same time, some enterprises announced price increases for glass spot, boosting the futures price to a short-term high. However, the overall terminal demand is still weak, and downstream procurement is cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. In terms of supply, the adjustment of production lines is limited, and the market supply is relatively abundant. Enterprises mostly maintain stable prices for sales, and actual transactions are flexibly adjusted. The regional inventory performance shows obvious differentiation, with good de-stocking effects in East, Central, South, and Northwest China, while North and Southwest China still face certain inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy trends, and the short-term view is relatively bullish [19] Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable, with local narrow fluctuations and limited overall price changes. In terms of production, the operation of the devices is generally stable, and the load of individual enterprises is adjusted. Among them, the Shandong Haitian device has resumed production, and Tongbai Haijing also plans to gradually resume production in the near future, and the industry output is expected to increase slightly. The demand side shows a flat performance, and downstream enterprises still replenish inventory on an as-needed basis, and most transactions revolve around low-priced goods. Overall, it is expected that the short-term soda ash market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with limited price fluctuation range [21][23]

| | | | | | | | | | 2025/9/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5330 | 0 | -20 | 5630 | 主力合约 | 5742 | 44 | -24 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5380 | 30 | 30 | 5730 | 01合约 | 5708 | 42 | -34 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5300 | 0 | -70 | 5630 | 05合约 | 5810 | 34 | -36 | | | 陕西#72 | 5300 | 0 | -50 | 5600 | 09合约 | 5908 | 66 | -12 | | | 陕西#75 | 6000 | 0 | 100 | | 主力月基差 | -112 | -44 | 4 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 24, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The current core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy market include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, cost support with electricity price hikes and manganese ore supply disruptions, the contradiction between the improvement of the term structure and capital withdrawal, and the contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the ferroalloy market. Positive factors include potential policy - driven supply reduction and cost support, while negative factors include weak downstream demand and high inventory in some cases [7][8][9] Key Points by Section Ferroalloy Price and Hedging - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for silicon ferroalloy is 5300 - 6000, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.78% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.1%. For silicon manganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 12.0% [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM. For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3] Core Contradictions - **High Supply and Weak Demand**: Ferroalloy production profit declined in early September, but has since recovered. Production remains at a five - year high, while downstream demand shows no significant improvement, and there may be a "no - peak season" situation [4] - **Cost Support**: Ningxia's electricity price has been raised by 2 cents to 0.4 yuan/degree, and there are rumors of reduced manganese ore shipments from Gabon in October. Although current manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, short - term disruptions need attention [4] - **Term Structure and Capital Withdrawal**: The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, but the term structure of coking coal has worsened. Ferroalloy positions are decreasing, with silicon ferroalloy's total position at 396,000 lots (down 6% week - on - week) and silicon manganese's at 551,400 lots (down 2.75% week - on - week) [4] - **Anti - Involution Expectations and Weak Reality**: There are expectations of supply reduction, but lack of substantial actions, leading to a high risk of price reversals [5] 利多解读 - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: There are rumors of an increase in the standard for metallurgical industry submerged arc furnaces, and an important article in the "Qiushi" magazine may address industry competition issues. Silicon ferroalloy enterprise inventory is 63,400 tons (down 9.3% week - on - week), and total inventory is 151,500 tons (down 0.53% week - on - week) [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: Strict government policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industry restructuring. There are rumors of reduced manganese ore shipments from Gabon in October, which may affect silicon manganese costs [7] 利空解读 - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Silicon ferroalloy enterprises maintain high operating rates, while downstream demand is weak [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about steel demand. Silicon manganese inventory is increasing, with enterprise inventory at 198,900 tons (up 19.24% week - on - week), total inventory at 502,300 tons (up 5.97% week - on - week), and Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September silicon manganese price down 200 yuan/ton compared to August [9] Daily Data - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: On September 24, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 18, down 100 day - on - day and 68 week - on - week. The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5480 yuan/ton, up 30 day - on - day and 30 week - on - week [10] - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 24, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 198, down 12 day - on - day and up 62 week - on - week. The spot price in Ningxia was 5680 yuan/ton, down 20 day - on - day and 20 week - on - week [11]