1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall**: The report provides a weekly review and forecast of the black industry chain, covering various products such as steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and ferroalloys. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, and market factors of each product [12][13][16]. - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to consolidate at low levels due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and a lack of macro - level drivers [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - level driving force is weakening, but restocking demand may support prices. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price of Dalian iron ore futures ranging from 770 to 800 yuan/ton [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a rapid decline in the previous period, the pessimistic sentiment in the market has been released, and prices may rebound periodically. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and prices are likely to fluctuate at low levels [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon manganese is expected to adjust narrowly in the short term due to accumulated supply - demand contradictions and high inventory pressure. Silicon iron is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term as supply contracts and inventory decreases [16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The futures prices of most products showed an upward trend last week. For example, the RB2605 contract of rebar rose 1.93% to 3119 yuan/ton, and the HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil rose 1.14% to 3269 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of most products also increased, with rebar rising 0.92% to 3300 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil rising 0.93% to 3270 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The supply - demand of steel products is weak. The utilization rate of blast furnace capacity decreased, and the daily average pig iron output decreased. The demand is not improving in the short term and may decline further with the cold weather. The price rebound is mainly due to the raw material price [12]. - **Viewpoint**: Steel prices will consolidate at low levels [12]. - **Attention Points**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [12]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: The supply of foreign mines decreased slightly week - on - week, and the arrival volume was at a medium - high level. Domestic demand decreased rapidly, and the inventory of steel mills was low. The port inventory continued to accumulate [13]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price of Dalian iron ore futures ranging from 770 to 800 yuan/ton. The strategy is to operate within the range and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - **Attention Points**: Macro - policy increments, implementation of industrial policies, and supply recovery speed [13]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: The market sentiment improved last week, and the futures prices rebounded. The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the import volume of Mongolian coal remained high. The demand for raw materials was suppressed due to the decrease in pig iron output [14]. - **Viewpoint**: Prices may rebound periodically but are likely to fluctuate at low levels in the short term [14]. - **Attention Points**: Production rhythm changes in the coking coal - coke - steel industry and changes in imported coal customs clearance [14]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: The macro - economic situation is complex. The supply of silicon manganese and silicon iron decreased, and the demand was weak. The inventory of silicon manganese reached a new high, while the inventory of silicon iron decreased [16]. - **Viewpoint**: Silicon manganese will adjust narrowly, and silicon iron will be slightly stronger in the short term [16]. - **Attention Points**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [16]. 3.3 Product Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 181.68 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.90 tons), the apparent demand was 208.64 tons (a week - on - week increase of 5.55 tons), and the total inventory was 452.54 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 26.96 tons) [19][27]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 291.91 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 16.80 tons), the apparent demand was 298.28 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.69 tons), and the total inventory was 390.72 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 6.37 tons) [32][37]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total port inventory of imported ore was 15512.63 tons (a week - on - week increase of 81.21 tons), and the daily average port dredging volume was 313.45 tons/day (a week - on - week decrease of 5.74 tons) [52]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8723.95 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 110.25 tons), and the daily consumption was 280.56 tons/day (a week - on - week decrease of 2.71 tons) [62]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke Inventory**: Last week, the total coke inventory was 900.45 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 3.35 tons) [90]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Last week, the total coking coal inventory was 2727.57 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons) [97]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: Last week, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 34 yuan/dry ton degree, the silicon manganese price in Inner Mongolia was 5540 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan), and the silicon iron price in Inner Mongolia was 5250 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 130 yuan) [130]. - **Production**: Last week, the silicon manganese output of 187 independent enterprises was 188230 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1015 tons), and the silicon iron output of 136 independent enterprises was 99800 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 6500 tons) [136][139]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for silicon manganese from five major steel products was 112402 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 385 tons), and the demand for silicon iron was 18132 tons (a week - on - week increase of 84 tons) [141]. - **Inventory**: On December 19, the silicon manganese inventory of 63 independent enterprises was 384500 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2500 tons), and the silicon iron inventory of 60 independent enterprises was 65160 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 12680 tons) [145].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive on Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. The supply and demand of rebar both increased this week, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot-rolled coils decreased significantly, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom. Affected by the export license management, the prices of finished steel products are under short - term pressure, and they are expected to gradually digest the policy impact later. The willingness for winter stockpiling is not strong this year, and large - scale replenishment may not occur. The macro - level is still in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to whether the "dual carbon" policy will be strengthened again and have a marginal impact on the steel industry [2]. - The latest overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase. The daily average hot metal output continued to decline, and the port inventory continued to increase while the steel mill's imported ore inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. - The macro - sentiment fluctuations in the market have temporarily ended, and the atmosphere in the black chain index has clearly warmed up. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, and the supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the direction of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment, and the supply - contraction problem of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to the "dual carbon" policy and possible emergencies in the manganese - ore segment [9][10]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether there are new supply - side disturbances in the northwest. The polysilicon market has a weak balance between the upstream and downstream, and the futures price trend is expected to be unstable. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and warehouse - receipt registration [13][16]. - The glass market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation trend in the short term due to weak demand and limited production capacity contraction. The soda - ash market's rebound strength is limited, and short positions can be considered for timely layout [19][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Steel Products Rebar - **Market Data**: The trading volume was 84,173 tons, a decrease of 8,030 tons. The main - contract open interest was 1.568866 million lots, a decrease of 7,077 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3,170 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand both increased this week, and the inventory continued to decline, in line with off - season characteristics. The terminal demand is still weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Affected by the export license management, the price is under short - term pressure [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Data**: The main - contract closing price was 3,269 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton (- 0.24%). The daily registered warehouse receipts were 103,404 tons, unchanged. The main - contract open interest was 1.191178 million lots, an increase of 1,622 lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3,270 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3,270 yuan/ton, both decreasing by 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The output decreased significantly, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils is relatively prominent, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Data**: The main - contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 780.00 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 0.32% (+ 2.50), and the open interest increased by 16,750 lots to 534,900 lots. The weighted open - interest was 920,400 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 64.63 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.65% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas shipments continued to increase, the daily average hot - metal output continued to decline, the port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Data**: On December 19th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.48% at 5,808 yuan/ton. The spot - market quotation of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,720 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 102 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 0.86% at 5,640 yuan/ton. The spot - market quotation of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 60 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The macro - sentiment fluctuations have ended, and the black chain index has warmed up. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market trends are affected by the black sector, manganese - ore cost, and ferrosilicon supply contraction. Attention should be paid to the "dual carbon" policy and manganese - ore emergencies [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: The main - contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8,690 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 0.52% (+ 45). The weighted - contract open interest decreased by 2,503 lots to 407,065 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 510 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 160 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. Polysilicon - **Market Data**: The main - contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 60,245 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 1.59% (+ 945). The weighted - contract open interest decreased by 2,718 lots to 247,847 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.4 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 7,845 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market has a weak balance between the upstream and downstream, and the futures price trend is expected to be unstable. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse - receipt registration [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Data**: The main glass contract closed at 1,041 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 1.98% (- 21). The North China large - plate quotation was 1,030 yuan, unchanged; the Central China quotation was 1,080 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, an increase of 331,000 boxes (+ 0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 26,289 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 28,730 lots [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation trend in the short term [19]. Soda Ash - **Market Data**: The main soda - ash contract closed at 1,176 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 1.42% (- 17). The Shahe heavy - soda quotation was 1,130 yuan, a decrease of 17 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons (+ 0.57%), including 771,700 tons of heavy - soda ash inventory (a decrease of 18,800 tons) and 727,600 tons of light - soda ash inventory (an increase of 23,800 tons). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 10,996 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 8,502 lots [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream demand is weak, and the market's rebound strength is limited. Short positions can be considered for timely layout [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on December 22, 2025, the latest spot price of Ningxia 72 is 5200 with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 100; Inner Mongolia 72 is 5250 with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 130; the latest price of the main contract is 5640 with a daily change of 48 and a weekly change of 170 [2]. - For silicon manganese on December 22, 2025, the latest ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5540 with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 20; the main contract price is 5808 with a daily change of 28 and a weekly change of 78 [2]. Supply - The content shows the historical production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (monthly and weekly), and the capacity utilization rate data of silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - It also shows the historical production data of silicon manganese in China (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Demand - The content presents data on the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China (monthly, in ten thousand tons), the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China (monthly, in ten thousand tons), and the demand for silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons) from 2021 - 2025 [5][8]. - It also shows the procurement volume and price data of silicon ferroalloy (FeSi75 - B) and silicon manganese (6517) by HeSteel Group (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [5][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, it includes data on the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China (weekly), CZCE silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipt quantity (daily), effective forecast (daily), and inventory average available days in different regions (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - For silicon manganese, it includes data on CZCE silicon manganese warehouse receipt quantity (daily), effective forecast (daily), warehouse receipt + effective inventory (daily), inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, in tons), and inventory average available days in China (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [8]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, it shows data on production costs and profits in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - For silicon manganese, it shows profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region, as well as data on Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract profit and Ningxia silicon manganese converted to the contract profit from 2021 - 2025 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of industrial enterprises in Haidong City from high-energy, high-emission operations to sustainable, green practices is highlighted as a significant achievement, driven by environmental protection initiatives and technological upgrades [5][15]. Group 1: Industrial Background - Haidong City, known as the "Gateway to Qinghai-Tibet," has attracted numerous enterprises due to its ecological advantages and green electricity [5]. - The region's traditional industries, such as ferroalloy and silicon carbide, have historically caused severe environmental degradation, prompting a shift towards sustainable practices [5][6]. - In 2017, the Central Environmental Protection Inspection Team identified significant environmental issues in Haidong's ferroalloy sector, leading to a push for industrial upgrades [5][6]. Group 2: Environmental Challenges - Haidong has 20 ferroalloy enterprises employing over 4,800 people, which are crucial for local economic development but have faced challenges like low equipment standards and serious emissions issues [6]. - The region's heavy industries have historically contributed to poor air quality and environmental complaints from local residents [7][8]. Group 3: Technological Upgrades - Following the 2017 environmental inspections, local governments encouraged ferroalloy companies to invest in energy-saving technologies and pollution control measures [9][10]. - Companies like Qinghai Shengji Silicon Industry and Qinghai Huaxin Silicon Industry have invested 180 million yuan in dust collection and emission control systems [9]. - A significant technological advancement involved creating a centralized casting point to reduce emissions, resulting in a drop in particulate matter concentration from 50 mg/m³ to 10 mg/m³ [10]. Group 4: Environmental Improvements - By 2024, Haidong's PM2.5 concentration decreased from 33 µg/m³ in 2017 to 29 µg/m³, with a 20.4% improvement in the overall air quality index [14]. - The satisfaction rate among residents regarding environmental conditions exceeded 93% [14]. Group 5: Industry Transformation - The shift from "black smoke" to "blue sky" represents not only environmental remediation but also a fundamental change in development philosophy, with many companies adopting a proactive approach to environmental responsibility [15][16]. - Companies are increasingly investing in clean energy and sustainable practices, such as the Qinghai Huzhou Tianyoude Qingke Wine Co., which has implemented solar power and reduced carbon emissions significantly [15].

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 资料来源：Mysteel、iFInd、国泰君安期货研究所 2 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFInd国泰君安期货研究所 ： ◼ 本周合金价格走势震荡偏强，主要受到宏观与基本面双重作用影响。上周"反内卷"或使得市场交易情绪对低估值品种再度袭来，叠加合金端的供 应变动及煤焦板块对合金盘面的情绪冲击，使得价格走势偏强，但大厂对盘套保意愿显现，叠加需求短期偏弱迹象仍存，盘面高度或有压力 。 ◼ 宏观：国内：中央经济工作会议进一步明确了明年经济工作的方向和任务： ①传统稳增长领域，重新释放了诸多稳增长信号，超出市场预期 ②在 物价方面，在多个领域提到涉及物价或反内卷方面的工作，显示政策重视的态度；海外：美联储如期再降息25基点。 ◼ 微观：铁水产量继续走弱，对原料需求支撑偏弱，当前锰硅基本面矛盾继续累积，硅铁减产缓解前序压力，仍需注意炉料供应端生产节奏的变动。 ◼ 本周合金端，成本均表现坚挺，供应环比走弱，硅铁减产力度较大，使得市场交易供应预期收紧情绪较强，但上升力度有限，需关注盘面回升后利 润修复，或使得宁夏地区大厂生产节奏存在变动；锰硅端，锰矿需求维持，海外矿企1月报价环比抬升，港口锰矿价 ...

反内卷预期再度升温，提振市场情绪 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面方面，供应端硅铁、锰硅开工率与产量均双双下降，近期随着产区电价整体上涨，厂家亏损态势加剧，供应端延续下降趋势。 需求方面，钢联数据显示，五大品种钢材产量与表需整体继续下降，生铁产量继续下降，且从高炉检修计划推算，生铁产量下降的 趋势预计将维持到12月底，对原料端需求仍有压力。成本端方面，产区铁合金电价上涨之后近期平稳运行，海外锰矿矿山1月美金 报价整体均小幅上涨。总体来看，基本面呈现供需双降格局，成本端支撑较为明显。 市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are supported by the cost side but suppressed by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - After macro - events are settled, the trading logic of iron ore returns to fundamentals. With restrained shipments, steel mills' restocking needs, and coking coal price concessions, the downside space of iron ore prices is expected to be limited [20] - As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve. Coke spot still has room for price cuts from a valuation perspective, and attention should be paid to the progress of the steel mills' third - round price cut [29] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are currently weak. Although the futures prices rebounded due to relevant policies, the rebound may stimulate enterprises to hedge and suppress prices [45] - With the strengthening expectation of new capacity production, the over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying. The weakening demand from glass and high inventories restrict the price of soda ash [59] - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may undergo cold - repair, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Currently, high intermediate inventories and off - season demand put pressure on the spot market [82] Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3120, 3119, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3276, 3269, and 3282 yuan/ton respectively [4] - The month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different changes compared to the previous day [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions had minor changes on December 19, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China was 3325 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [8][10] - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed slightly [8][10] - **Other Ratios** - The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore were all 4; the ratios of rebar to coke were all 2 on December 19, 2025 [17] Iron Ore - **Price Data** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 798, 780, and 758 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 1, 2.5, and 3 yuan/ton respectively [21] - The basis of different contracts showed a downward trend [21] - **Fundamental Data** - The daily average pig iron output was 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81.21 tons [24] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios** - On December 19, 2025, the spreads of coking coal and coke contracts showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 195 yuan/ton [32] - The coking profit, mine - coke ratio, etc. also changed [32] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes. The immediate coking profit was 24 yuan/ton [35] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron** - On December 19, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 90 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 48 yuan/ton; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5300 yuan/ton [46] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 82 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 28 yuan/ton; the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5500 yuan/ton [47] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1120, 1176, and 1236 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 17, 17, and 14 yuan/ton respectively [60] - The month - spreads also changed [60] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable. The basis of soda ash in different regions showed a downward trend [60] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of glass 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 941, 1041, and 1138 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 12, 21, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [83] - The month - spreads and basis of glass contracts changed [83] - **Sales and Production Data** - The sales - to - production ratios of glass in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, etc. showed different trends in December 2025 [84]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Morning Report - Date: December 19, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price 3.1.1 Silicon Iron (SiFe) - Spot prices of SiFe vary by region and grade. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 SiFe natural block is 5,200 yuan, with a daily change of 80 yuan and a weekly change of 100 yuan. The latest price of Tianjin 72 SiFe export is 1,020 US dollars, with no daily or weekly change [2] - Futures prices also vary by contract. The latest price of the SiFe main contract is 5,592 yuan, with a daily change of 46 yuan and a weekly change of 174 yuan [2] 3.1.2 Silicon Manganese (SiMn) - Spot prices of SiMn also vary by region and grade. The latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 SiMn is 5,540 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly change of 20 yuan [2] - Futures prices of SiMn also vary by contract. The latest price of the SiMn main contract is 5,780 yuan, with a daily change of 22 yuan and a weekly change of 68 yuan [2] 3.2 Supply 3.2.1 Silicon Iron - The production capacity utilization rate of 136 SiFe production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi shows different trends over the years from 2021 - 2025 [4] - The monthly production of 136 SiFe enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the weekly production of 136 SiFe enterprises (with a capacity share of 95%) in China also shows different trends [4] 3.2.2 Silicon Manganese - The weekly production of SiMn in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the capacity utilization rate and production of SiMn enterprises show different trends [6] 3.3 Demand 3.3.1 Silicon Iron - The demand for SiFe is related to the production of products such as crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and metal magnesium. The monthly production forecasts and actual production of these products from 2021 - 2025 are presented [4] - The export volume of SiFe from China from 2021 - 2025 is also presented [4] 3.3.2 Silicon Manganese - The demand for SiMn is related to the production of crude steel. The monthly production forecasts and actual production of crude steel from 2021 - 2025 are presented [4] - The demand for SiMn in China (in ten thousand tons) from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the export volume of SiMn from China from 2021 - 2025 is also presented [7] 3.4 Inventory 3.4.1 Silicon Iron - The weekly inventory of 60 sample SiFe enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 is presented [5] - The daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipt and effective forecast of SiFe from 2021 - 2025 are also presented [5] - The average available inventory days of SiFe in East China, South China, North China, and China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5] 3.4.2 Silicon Manganese - The daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipt and effective inventory of SiMn from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7] - The weekly inventory of 63 sample SiMn enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the average available inventory days of SiMn in China from 2021 - 2025 are also presented [7] 3.5 Cost and Profit 3.5.1 Silicon Iron - The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented, which are important factors in the cost of SiFe production [5] - The market price of semi - coking coal in Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 is presented [5] - The production cost, the profit converted to the main contract, and the spot profit of SiFe in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5] 3.5.2 Silicon Manganese - The prices of raw materials such as chemical coke, manganese ore from different origins, and different grades from 2021 - 2025 are presented, which are important factors in the cost of SiMn production [6] - The profit of SiMn in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region from 2021 - 2025 is presented, as well as the profit of SiMn in Guangxi and Ningxia converted to the main contract [7]

Core Insights - Silicon iron spot prices remained stable, with 72 silicon iron priced at 5100-5200 RMB/ton and 75 silicon iron priced at 5600-5700 RMB/ton [1] - On December 18, the main contract for silicon iron futures closed at 5592.00 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 1.23% [2] - The trading volume for silicon iron futures reached 295,666 contracts on the same day [2] Price Overview - In the Ningxia region, various suppliers listed 75 silicon iron at prices ranging from 5200 to 5300 RMB/ton [2] - Specific suppliers include Ningxia Xuan Tie Supply Chain Group, Daya Smelting, and Sanyuan Zhongtai Metallurgy, all offering competitive pricing [2] Market Dynamics - As of December 17, the number of silicon iron futures warehouse receipts decreased by 96 contracts compared to the previous trading day [3] - A major factory in Gansu has begun transitioning production lines, indicating shifts in supply dynamics [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is under pressure due to rising electricity costs leading to increased losses for companies, with some manufacturers in Qinghai initiating maintenance [4] - Demand is also facing challenges, as steel inventory is decreasing but both steel production and apparent demand are declining [4] - Overall, the market is expected to continue experiencing bottom-level fluctuations due to weak supply and demand fundamentals [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Morning Report - Report Date: December 18, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the report Summary by Category Price - **Silicon Iron**: The latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron natural block is 5120 yuan, with a daily change of -30 yuan and a weekly change of 20 yuan; the main contract price is 5546 yuan, with a daily change of 64 yuan and a weekly change of 112 yuan [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese is 5540 yuan, with a daily change of 0 yuan and a weekly change of 20 yuan; the main contract price is 5758 yuan, with a daily change of 22 yuan and a weekly change of 34 yuan [2]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and their weekly production (with a capacity share of 95%) is also shown [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly production of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is provided [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The demand - related data includes the estimated production of crude steel in China (monthly, in ten - thousand tons), the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China (monthly, in ten - thousand tons), etc. [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand - side data shows the demand for silicon manganese in China (in ten - thousand tons, according to Steel Union's statistics), and the estimated production of crude steel in China (monthly, in ten - thousand tons) [4][7]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, including those in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, are given, as well as the daily data of CZCE silicon iron warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, etc. [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The daily data of CZCE silicon manganese warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the weekly inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China are presented [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - related data includes the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, and the market price of semi - coke small materials in Shaanxi. The profit data includes the production profit of semi - coke in China, the export profit of 75 - grade silicon iron, etc. [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The cost - related data involves the ex - factory price of chemical coke in Ordos, and the summary prices of various manganese ores. The profit data includes the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, etc. [6][7].