1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The report suggests a strategy of testing short positions on rebounds for steel. The industry is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and with the arrival of the demand off - season, prices are more likely to fall without macro - policy support [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to run strongly in a narrow range. Although the supply is expected to increase, the high domestic demand provides support. The i2509 contract price is expected to be in the range of 695 - 720 yuan/ton, and the FE07 contract price in the range of 93 - 96 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term market sentiment for coking coal and coke has improved, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The reduction in coal production and imports has alleviated the supply - surplus pressure [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is expected to show narrow - range adjustments, following the trend of the black - metal market. The supply of ferromanganese is increasing, putting pressure on prices, while the impact of ferrosilicon inventory on prices is neutral [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of futures and spot prices of various black - industry products showed different changes last week. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 increased by 23 yuan/ton (0.77%), and the spot price of HRB400E:Φ20 in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.32%) [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black - Industry Market Forecast - **Steel**: The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.79%, and the steel - mill profitability rate was 59.31%. The demand for finished products is in the off - season, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The strategy is to test short positions on rebounds [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The market was mainly affected by geopolitical factors last week. The demand for finished products was in the off - season but did not accumulate inventory. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, but high demand provides support for prices [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke continued to fluctuate last week. The 4th round of price cuts for coke by steel mills is expected to be implemented this week. The reduction in imports and production has alleviated the supply - surplus pressure [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market reaction to the Fed's interest - rate decision was stable, but the escalation of the Middle East conflict may increase market volatility. The supply of ferromanganese is increasing, and the demand for both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon has slightly recovered [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 212.18 tons (up 4.61 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 219.19 tons (down 0.78 tons week - on - week). The total inventory was 551.07 tons (down 7.01 tons week - on - week) [14][21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output was 325.45 tons (up 0.8 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 330.69 tons (up 10.81 tons week - on - week). The total inventory was 340.17 tons (down 5.24 tons week - on - week) [27][32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total import - ore port inventory (45 ports) was 13894.16 tons (down 38.98 tons week - on - week). The inventory of various ore types showed different changes [45][51]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory and Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8936.24 tons (up 137.56 tons week - on - week), and the daily consumption was 301.00 tons/day (up 0.57 tons/day week - on - week) [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment was 3431.0 tons (up 242.3 tons week - on - week), with different changes in shipments from different regions [71]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 952.91 tons (down 18.68 tons week - on - week), and the total coking - coal inventory was 2610.4 tons (down 11.19 tons week - on - week) [101][109]. - **Production and Profit**: The average daily coke output of independent coking enterprises was 64.7 tons (down 0.3 tons week - on - week), and the average daily coking - coal output of 523 coking mines was 74.4 tons (up 0.3 tons week - on - week) [118][119]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The spot price of ferromanganese was 5500 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of ferrosilicon was 5100 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [135]. - **Production and Demand**: The output of ferromanganese was 176610 tons (up 3220 tons week - on - week), and the demand was 123717 tons (up 1564 tons week - on - week). The output of ferrosilicon was 9.79 tons (up 0.28 tons week - on - week), and the demand was 19964.4 tons (up 357 tons week - on - week) [143][150].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The steel market in 2025 differs significantly from 2023. Current demand support is weakening, and future demand may be over - drawn. Although short - term fundamentals have limited pressure, the upward space of the steel futures market is restricted [3]. - The iron ore market is in a state of high supply and demand, slightly weakening at the margin. Considering the approaching off - season, the current state is acceptable. Prices may fluctuate, and macro - changes need attention [23][24]. - The coking coal market has short - term upward potential in the futures market, but the spot market remains under pressure. The probability of coking plants raising prices is low [40]. - The ferroalloy market has a weak long - term trend. Although the negative factors of high inventory and high supply are weakening, cost reduction expectations and the off - season demand may lead to a weak operation [57]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Production is expected to remain high, and demand is weak. The futures price may continue to decline [69][70]. - The glass market's supply may increase, and the cumulative apparent demand has declined. The futures price has limited support and lacks obvious driving factors [98]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil showed minor fluctuations compared to June 20. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil remained relatively stable [4][9]. - **Market Analysis**: The current steel market has limited short - term fundamental pressure, but the upward space of the futures market is restricted due to factors such as the approaching off - season and potential over - drawn future demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts increased slightly compared to June 20, while the basis decreased. The prices of iron ore varieties in Rizhao also showed minor changes [25]. - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore market is in a state of high supply and demand, slightly weakening at the margin. With the approaching off - season, prices may fluctuate, and macro - changes need attention [23][24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The coking profit decreased slightly [41]. - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal market has short - term upward potential in the futures market, but the spot market remains under pressure. The probability of coking plants raising prices is low [40]. Ferroalloy - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the ferroalloy (silicon - iron and silicon - manganese) futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The spot prices of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese also changed [59][60]. - **Market Analysis**: The ferroalloy market has a weak long - term trend. Although the negative factors of high inventory and high supply are weakening, cost reduction expectations and the off - season demand may lead to a weak operation [57]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the soda ash futures prices and spreads showed minor changes compared to June 20. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions also changed [71][72]. - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Production is expected to remain high, and demand is weak. The futures price may continue to decline [69][70]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the glass futures prices and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions also changed [99][101]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market's supply may increase, and the cumulative apparent demand has declined. The futures price has limited support and lacks obvious driving factors [98].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 商品氛围转暖，合金重心抬升 ——铁合金周报20250623 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：周产量低位小幅回升。 需求：同比偏弱，跟随铁水成材产量小增。 库存：厂家库存持续消化，钢厂库存水平回升。 | | | | | 成本：周内主辅料持稳。 | | 减产不及 | | | | 关注上方 | 预期、煤 | | 硅铁 | 基差：盘面反弹，基差收窄。 | 5400-5800反 | 电价格继 | | | 总结：上周硅铁供需双增，盘面重心小幅抬升。硅铁产区停复产均有，上周产量 | 弹力度。 | 续下降 | | | 再度转增，需求表现平淡，弱现实缺乏消费增量。近期随着海外局势扰动，原油 | | | | | 带动商品整体走势修复，包括合金在内的黑色系短期亦有企稳迹象，硅铁前期盘 | | | | | 面贴水较大，流畅下跌告一段落，短期跟随商品整体低位重心抬升，上周价格初 | | | | | 步进入反弹目标位。产业保值可等待盘面平水至升水机会。 | | | 供应：低位小幅回落 5 6 7 ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 锰硅：矿端报价坚挺，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2507 | 5482 | 1 2 | 8,913 | 45,521 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5300 | -10 | 162,739 | 221,331 | | | 锰硅2507 | 5606 | 3 8 | 1,691 | 17,549 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5616 | 3 2 | 445,810 | 394,983 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5100 | - | 元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

| 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | 盘面 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | | | | | | | | | | | | 宁夏#72 内蒙#72 | 5100 5100 | 0 0 | 100 50 | 5360 5400 | 主力合约 01合约 | 5300 5272 | -10 12 | 108 110 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5150 | 50 | 100 | 5480 | 05合约 | 5304 | 32 | 118 | | | 陕西#72 | 5100 | 0 | 100 | 5400 | 09合约 | 5300 | -10 | 108 | | | 陕西#75 | 5600 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | 60 | 10 | -8 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5450 | 0 | 170 | | 1-5月差 | -32 | - ...

国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 硅铁&锰硅观点：板块价格共振上涨，矿端情绪助推 | 基本面 | 条 目 | | | | | 硅 | 铁 | | 锰 硅 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当期值 | | | 环 | 比 | | 当期值 | 环 | 同 | 比 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | | | 供 | 周产量（周） | 9 . | 79 | | 2 . | 94% | | 17 . | 1 . | -14 . | 42% | 86% | -18 . | 18% | 66 | | | 应 | 进口数量（5月） | 1 . ...

价格 供应 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 CZCE：硅锰：主力合约：收盘价（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 CZCE：硅锰：基差（江苏）（钢联口径） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅锰主力月 内蒙基差（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 1 ...

Report Title - Iron Alloy Morning Report [1] Report Date - June 19, 2025 [2] Price Summary Silicon Ferrosilicon (FeSi) - **Spot Prices**: In various regions, prices for different grades of FeSi showed mixed changes. For example, the price of Ningxia 72 FeSi natural block remained stable at 5050 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; Inner Mongolia 72 FeSi natural block increased by 50 yuan to 5100 yuan, with no weekly change [2]. - **Export Prices**: The export price of Tianjin 72 FeSi remained at 1055 US dollars, and the export price of Tianjin 75 FeSi remained at 1095 US dollars [2]. - **Futures Prices**: Different contracts of FeSi futures showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the main contract of FeSi increased by 26 yuan to 5290 yuan, with a weekly increase of 106 yuan [2]. Silicon Manganese (SiMn) - **Spot Prices**: The ex - factory prices of SiMn in different regions increased to varying degrees. For example, the ex - factory prices of Inner Mongolia 6517 and Ningxia 6517 SiMn increased by 30 yuan to 5480 yuan and 5430 yuan respectively, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan [2]. - **Futures Prices**: Different contracts of SiMn futures also showed increases. For example, the main contract of SiMn increased by 20 yuan to 5556 yuan, with a weekly increase of 70 yuan [2]. Supply - Related Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Production Capacity Utilization**: The production capacity utilization of 136 silicon ferrosilicon production enterprises in different regions showed certain trends over time from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - **Production Volume**: The monthly production volume of 136 silicon ferrosilicon enterprises in China and the weekly production volume of 136 silicon ferrosilicon enterprises (with a capacity share of 95%) showed different trends from 2021 - 2025 [4]. Silicon Manganese - **Production Volume**: The weekly production volume of silicon manganese in China showed different trends from 2021 - 2025 [6]. - **Enterprise Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of silicon manganese enterprises in China showed different trends from 2021 - 2025 [6]. Demand - Related Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Related Industries**: The demand for silicon ferrosilicon is related to industries such as the production of crude steel, stainless steel, and metal magnesium. The production volume of these industries showed different trends from 2021 - 2025 [4]. Silicon Manganese - **Demand in China**: The demand for silicon manganese in China (according to the Steel Union's caliber) showed different trends from 2021 - 2025 [4][7]. Inventory - Related Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Enterprise Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample silicon ferrosilicon enterprises in different regions (such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi) showed different trends from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: The total number of warehouse receipts of silicon ferrosilicon on the CZCE, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts showed different trends from 2021 - 2025 [5]. Silicon Manganese - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: The total number of warehouse receipts of silicon manganese on the CZCE, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory showed different trends from 2021 - 2025 [7]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China showed different trends from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost - Profit - Related Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Cost**: The production costs of silicon ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia showed different trends from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - **Profit**: The profits of silicon ferrosilicon in Ningxia (including folding the main - contract profit and spot profit) and Inner Mongolia (folding the main - contract profit) showed different trends from 2021 - 2025 [5]. Silicon Manganese - **Cost**: The cost of silicon manganese is related to factors such as the price of chemical coke and manganese ore. The prices of these raw materials showed different trends from 2021 - 2025 [6]. - **Profit**: The profits of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi (including folding the main - contract profit), and Ningxia (folding the main - contract profit) showed different trends from 2021 - 2025 [6][7].

2025 年 6 月 19 日 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅 铁2507 | 5464 | 9 2 | 14,981 | 46,425 | | 期 货 | 硅 铁2509 | 5290 | 2 6 | 163,659 | 220,226 | | | 锰 硅2507 | 5544 | 2 4 | 4,888 | 17,848 | | | 锰 硅2509 | 5556 | 2 0 | 214,091 | 417,890 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The steel market is facing challenges as the traditional off - season approaches. Although high hot metal production and raw material cost support the market, demand is under pressure due to factors like policy changes, weak investment data, and potential anti - dumping measures [3]. - Short - term iron ore fundamentals are expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, with price elasticity remaining low. The supply is abundant, and the demand is better than expected, so the iron ore price is likely to be stable in the short term [18]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the coal - coke market may continue to decline as the negative feedback in the black - series is brewing due to factors such as tariff policies and the off - season [35]. - Ferroalloys are expected to remain weak as the cost is likely to decrease, and the demand is in the off - season, but they may be affected by news when the valuation is too low [51]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Although there are short - term production fluctuations due to maintenance, it does not change the overall pattern. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening [64]. - The glass market has a weak short - term fundamental and cost support. Although there is an expectation of increased cold - repair if the low price persists, there is no obvious driving force currently [92]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 2978, 2980, and 2986 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3100, 3093, and 3102 yuan/ton respectively. The rebar and hot - rolled coil basis widened, and the term structure changed from contango to back [4][19]. - **Market Situation**: The conflict in the Middle East has pushed up the price of coal, but the steel demand is facing a test in the off - season. There is pressure on the coil and sheet market in some regions, and the steel export may face more anti - dumping pressure [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 670.5 yuan/ton. The term structure of iron ore flattened, and the backwardation of the far - month contracts slightly increased [20][19]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to remain high, with shipments exceeding the seasonal average by over 300,000 tons. The demand is better than expected, and the hot metal production is likely to remain around 2.4 million tons [18]. Coal - Coke - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 791 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1293 yuan/ton. The term structure of coking coal flattened, and the premium of the far - month contracts narrowed [36]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term price fluctuations may intensify due to the conflict in the Middle East. In the medium - to - long - term, the coal - coke market may continue to decline as the negative feedback in the black - series is brewing [35]. Ferroalloys - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 110 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 274 yuan/ton. The ferroalloy positions have decreased, and some funds have left the market [54][55]. - **Market Situation**: The silicon - iron has a production - cut driving force as the profit is at the bottom of the range, while the silicon - manganese profit has improved. The overall situation is weak due to factors such as cost reduction expectations and the off - season [51]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1204, 1170, and 1159 yuan/ton respectively. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the inventory is at a historical high [66][64]. - **Market Situation**: The production has recovered to over 700,000 tons, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening. The price needs further decline in the spot market to fall further [64]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1084, 980, and 1038 yuan/ton respectively. The cumulative apparent demand of glass has dropped by nearly 10% [93]. - **Market Situation**: The supply has a situation of both ignition and cold - repair. The short - term fundamental and cost support are weak, and there is no obvious driving force [92].