Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback of the recent decline in the steel market has ended, and short - term price increases are mainly due to short - sellers taking profits. Steel demand has entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [2]. - For iron ore, although the supply has recovered and high inventory suppresses prices, the short - term increase in hot metal production supports demand. In the macro - vacuum period, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. - For the black sector, as the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on sentiment and prices is expected to increase. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The future price increase depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies [10][11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22]. Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3097 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.441%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3655 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 107385 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton (1.412%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 6484 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 23505 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, and inventory is accumulating against the season. In the short term, prices are likely to be weak and volatile, but there may be an inflection point in demand later [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 788.50 yuan/ton, up 2.07% (+16.00). The positions increased by 1019 lots to 48.14 million lots. The weighted positions were 90.75 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.38% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume has recovered significantly. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal output has increased, but the steel mill profitability rate is declining. Port inventory is accumulating. In the short term, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - The manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.77% at 5792 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 98 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF601) closed up 1.38% at 5566 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 34 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - As the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on the black sector is expected to increase. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9080 yuan/ton, up 0.67% (+60). The weighted contract positions decreased by 2209 lots to 401179 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 52655 yuan/ton, down 2.57% (-1390). The weighted contract positions decreased by 6818 lots to 234241 lots [16]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1029 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (-3). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 11.10 million cases (0.18%) [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1231 yuan/ton, up 0.41% (+5). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 0.69 million tons (0.18%) [21]. Strategy Viewpoints - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints explicitly stated in the provided content Summary by Directory Price - For silicon ferroalloy on November 18, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5150 and 5200 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of 0 and -20. The factory - price converted to the futures market was 5450 and 5550. The main contract price was 5566, with a daily change of 76 and a weekly change of -22 [2]. - The export price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1030 US dollars, with a daily and weekly change of -15; Tianjin 75 was 1080 US dollars, with a daily and weekly change of -20 [2]. - For silicon manganese, the factory - ex prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 were 5600, 5550, 5600, 5580, and 5580 respectively. The main contract price was 5792, with a daily change of 44 and a weekly change of -28 [2]. Supply - There are historical data charts on the production, capacity utilization rate of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, and the production of silicon manganese in China, which can reflect the supply situation of the iron alloy industry over the years [4][6]. Demand - There are data on the demand for silicon manganese in China (Steel Union's data), the production of crude steel and stainless - steel in China, and the procurement volume and price of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, which can reflect the demand side of the iron alloy industry [4][6][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, there are data on the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5]. - For silicon manganese, there are data on the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China and the inventory average available days in China [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, there are data on electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, semi - coke production profit, and the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5]. - For silicon manganese, there are data on the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions, and the profit of silicon manganese converted to the main futures contract in Guangxi and Ningxia [7].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/11/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,792.00 | +44.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,566.00 | +76.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 595,470.00 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 17, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon ferroalloy (SF) main contract closed at 5566, up 1.38% with a decrease of 2684 in open interest; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5792, up 0.77% with a decrease of 2748 in open interest. The fundamentals of both SF and SM show weak supply and demand, with cost increases driving short - term rebounds. They are expected to continue bottom - oscillating [6]. - For trading strategies, in the case of weak supply - demand fundamentals and rising costs, it is expected to be in bottom - oscillation. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Futures - SF main contract: closed at 5662, up 122 for the day and down 30 for the week, with a trading volume of 295372 (up 67133 for the day) and an open interest of 134545 (down 1747 for the day) [2]. - SM main contract: closed at 5792, up 44 for the day and down 28 for the week, with a trading volume of 207209 (up 87774 for the day) and an open interest of 359008 (down 2748 for the day) [2]. Spot - Silicon ferroalloy: 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5280, unchanged for the day and down 20 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5250, unchanged for the day and week; in Qinghai, it was 5300, unchanged for the day and up 30 for the week; in Jiangsu, it was 5550, unchanged for the day and down 50 for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5600, up 100 for the day and down 80 for the week [2]. - Manganese silicon: 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5600, unchanged for the day and down 20 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5550, unchanged for the day and week; in Guangxi, it was 5600, unchanged for the day and week; in Jiangsu, it was 5720, up 20 for the day and unchanged for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5700, up 20 for the day and unchanged for the week [2]. Basis/Spread - Silicon ferroalloy: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 382, down 122 for the day and up 10 for the week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 412, down 122 for the day and up 30 for the week; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 362, down 122 for the day and up 60 for the week; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 270, unchanged for the day and down 30 for the week; SF - SM spread was - 130, up 78 for the day and down 2 for the week [2]. - Manganese silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 192, down 44 for the day and up 8 for the week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 242, down 44 for the day and up 28 for the week; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 192, down 44 for the day and up 28 for the week; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 0, unchanged for the day and up 20 for the week [2]. Raw Materials - Manganese ore in Tianjin: Australian lump was priced at 39.7, up 0.2 for the day and 0.7 for the week; South African semi - carbonate was 34.3, unchanged for the day and week; Gabonese lump was 40.5, unchanged for the day and up 0.5 for the week [2]. - Lanthanum semi - coke: in Shaanxi, it was 820, unchanged for the day and week; in Ningxia, it was 920, unchanged for the day and week; in Inner Mongolia, it was 810, unchanged for the day and week [2]. Market Judgment Silicon Ferroalloy - On November 17, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price in some regions increased by 100 yuan/ton. The operating rate and output of sample enterprises on the supply side both decreased. Attention should be paid to whether a production - cut trend will form when the price reaches a low level. On the demand side, the steel inventory de - stocking statistics at the beginning of the week were good, and the concern about negative feedback was slightly alleviated. On the cost side, due to the dry season and the strong spot price of coal, the electricity prices of ferroalloys in each production area were generally stable with a slight upward trend. Overall, the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the cost increase drives a short - term rebound. It is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating trend [6]. Manganese Silicon - On November 17, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price of Australian lump in Tianjin increased by 0.2 yuan/ton degree. The manganese silicon spot was also stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price in some regions increased by 20 yuan/ton. The supply side also showed a slight decline. On the demand side, as mentioned above, the steel inventory data at the beginning of the week were good, and the concern about negative feedback was slightly alleviated. On the cost side, the domestic port inventory was at a low level in the same period, the spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the overseas manganese ore quotation also increased steadily. Coupled with a slight increase in the electricity fee in the production area, the cost side increased. Against the background of weak supply and demand and cost support, it is expected to mainly oscillate at the bottom [6]. Important Information - On November 17, the price of Australian lump Mn42.3% in Tianjin was 39.7 yuan/ton degree, the price of Gabonese lump Mn46.6% was 40.5 yuan/ton degree, and the price of semi - carbonate Mn37% was 35 yuan/ton degree [8]. - A ferroalloy plant in Zhongwei, Ningxia, carried out maintenance on one 25500kva silicon ferroalloy furnace on the afternoon of November 16, reducing the daily output by about 70 tons [9]. Related Attachments - There are multiple charts including the trend review of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, the monthly spread of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, the spot price of silicon manganese, the electricity price of ferroalloys, the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon [10][13][14][17][19][22].

Report Date - November 17, 2025 [1][4][8][13][18][21] Investment Ratings for Different Commodities - Iron Ore: Oscillating and fluctuating [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation with narrowing decline in apparent demand data [2][9] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Wide - range oscillation with narrowing decline in apparent demand data [2][9] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation with cost as the bottom support [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation with cost as the bottom support [2][13] - Coke: Following the downward adjustment [2][18] - Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation is declining [2][19] - Logs: Oscillating and fluctuating [2][21] Core Views - Each commodity in the black series has its own market trend characteristics, mainly affected by factors such as fundamentals, macro - economic data, and industry news [2][6][10] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Futures closed at 772.5 yuan/ton with no change; some spot prices remained stable, while the price of Super Special (56.5%) decreased by 2 yuan/ton. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: In October, the year - on - year actual growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.17%. From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate was 6.1% [6] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For RB2601, yesterday's trading volume was 769,087 lots, and the position decreased by 20,210 lots. Some spot prices changed slightly, and basis and spread values also changed [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on November 13, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 8.54 tons, and hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.5 tons. In terms of inventory, rebar decreased by 16.37 tons, and hot - rolled coil increased by 0.07 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 2.15 tons, and hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.71 tons. In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased by 86 tons month - on - month, etc. [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of some futures contracts decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese and related raw materials changed to some extent, and basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values also changed [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: Jupiter and NMT announced the shipment prices of manganese ore to China in December 2025. There were also price and procurement information of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions. From January to October 2025, the total national output of silicomanganese was 903.96 tons, with Inner Mongolia accounting for 48.5% [13][14][16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [17] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. Some spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and basis and spread values also changed [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 to 2026 [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [20] Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of some futures contracts changed. Spot prices of different types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were mostly stable, with only slight changes in a few cases [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of American logs from November 10, 2025 [24] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, on November 17, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5150 and 5200 respectively with no daily change and weekly changes of 0 and -20; the prices of Qinghai 72, Shaanxi 72, Shaanxi 75, Jiangsu 72, and Tianjin 72 also had corresponding price and change data [2] - For silicon manganese, on the same date, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, Yunnan 6517, Guangxi 6014, Ningxia 6517, and Jiangsu 6517 were provided with their daily and weekly changes [2] Supply - The report shows historical data of 136 - company silicon iron production in China (monthly and weekly, capacity ratio 95%), capacity utilization rates of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi silicon - iron production enterprises (monthly), and silicon manganese production in China (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 [4][6] Demand - It includes historical data on the estimated and actual production of Chinese crude steel (monthly, tons), the price and production of magnesium metal, the demand for silicon manganese in China (ten thousand tons, Steel Union caliber), and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon iron and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 [4][6][7] Inventory - For silicon iron, it presents the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), CZCE silicon - iron warehouse receipt quantity (daily), effective forecast (daily), and inventory average available days in different regions from 2021 - 2025 [5] - For silicon manganese, it shows CZCE silicon - manganese warehouse receipt quantity (daily), effective forecast (daily), warehouse receipt + effective inventory (daily), and inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, tons) from 2021 - 2025 [7] Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, it provides data on electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coking coal, the cost of silicon iron production in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and profit data such as Ningxia silicon - iron discounting the main contract profit, Ningxia silicon - iron spot profit, and 75 - grade silicon - iron export profit from 2021 - 2025 [5] - For silicon manganese, it shows the profit data of Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (Steel Union caliber), Guangxi silicon - manganese discounting the main contract profit, and Ningxia silicon - manganese discounting the contract profit from 2021 - 2025 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are experiencing wide - range fluctuations due to the combined influence of sector sentiment and fundamental contradictions [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's manganese silicon production was 19.96 tons, a 1.2% decrease from last week. The weekly operating rate was 39.59%, down 0.65 percentage points from last week. The reduction in production was mainly contributed by Guizhou [21][22]. - **Demand**: Steel mill tenders' pricing moved down with the market, and the market was mainly driven by rigid demand. The production of building materials continued to decline, and the demand for manganese silicon in steelmaking was weakly supported. The iron - water output increased, but the overall demand for manganese silicon might weaken [27][29]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the inventory of 63 manganese - silicon sample enterprises was 352,500 tons, a net increase of 33,000 tons. The number of warehouse receipts was 19,863, an increase of 5,505, equivalent to 27,525 tons, and the converted inventory was 99,315 tons. In October, the average available days of steel mill manganese - silicon inventory was 15.7 days (- 0.23 days) [33][36]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese ore departure volume increased month - on - month. The dredging of manganese ore remained at a high level, and the current supply and demand of manganese ore were relatively balanced. Overseas mining enterprises' quotes were firm, and the port cargo rights were concentrated. The manganese - silicon futures market might suppress the price space of manganese ore [40][41][47]. Silicon Ferroalloy Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's silicon ferroalloy production was 11.41 tons, a 0.09 - ton increase from last week. The weekly operating rate was 36.26%, up 0.18 percentage points. The reduction in production was mainly contributed by Qinghai, Shaanxi, etc. [53][54]. - **Demand**: Steel mill tender quotes showed both increases and decreases, and the short - term demand for steel mill tenders declined as expected. The demand for silicon ferroalloy was weakly supported. The iron - water output increased, but the export volume in September was 4.01 tons, a 14.6% increase month - on - month [60][65][70]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the inventory of 60 silicon - ferroalloy sample enterprises was 81,360 tons, an increase of 2,670 tons. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,450, an increase of 2,751, equivalent to 13,755 tons, and the converted inventory was 42,250 tons. In October, the average available days of steel mill silicon - ferroalloy inventory was 15.67 days (+ 0.15 days) [72]. - **Profit**: The settlement electricity price in Inner Mongolia decreased, while the electricity cost in non - main producing areas increased. The profit of silicon ferroalloy was compressed along with the market [77].

供需双弱 成本支撑区间震荡 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端样本企业开工率与产量双双下降，关注价格来到低位后是否形成减产趋势。需求方面，本周钢联样本钢材表需与 产量继续双双下降，唐山阶段性限产结束后，本周铁水产量出现反弹，但目前钢材利润仍然不佳，原料需求端始终存在下行预期。 成本端方面，枯水期叠加煤炭现货价格强势，各产区铁合金电价总体稳中偏强。总体来看，基本面供需双弱，成本端有所抬升，预 计延续底部震荡走势。 锰硅方面，供应端同样出现小幅下滑，关注后续是否形成减产趋势。需求方面 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: In November, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The inventory of ferromanganese silicon is rising faster, and the subsequent production pressure is expected to increase. The leading manganese-based enterprises plan to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry by 40%, but the supply did not decline from August to September and decreased slightly in October. On the demand side, the national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue in 2025, and the subsequent crude steel production will continue to decline. Coke profits have little room for significant improvement, and alloys are likely to remain in a loss state. It is expected that the main contract of ferromanganese silicon will fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 5,900 [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main ferromanganese silicon contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend in the weekly chart [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Macro: Hunan Yueyang Pingjiang County introduced new regulations to become the first county in Hunan to fully implement the spot - housing sales system. The central bank's RMB loan balance has reached 27 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stock has reached 43.7 trillion yuan. In October, residents' confidence in buying houses continued to decline, and they continued to adopt a wait - and - see attitude [6]. - Overseas: Trump warned that if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs, the US will face an "economic disaster" [6]. - Supply and Demand: Inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 83,000 tons, and on the demand side, hot metal production has declined seasonally. In terms of profits, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 170 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 330 yuan/ton. The final price of ferromanganese silicon set by HBIS Group in November is 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main ferromanganese silicon contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Strategy: It is expected that the main contract of ferromanganese silicon will fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 5,900 [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of November 14, the position of the ferromanganese silicon futures contract is 604,600 lots, an increase of 35,000 lots compared with the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread is 60, an increase of 6 points. The number of ferromanganese silicon warehouse receipts is 19,863, an increase of 5,505. The spread between the January contracts of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon is 258, an increase of 24 points [12][16]. - Spot Market: As of November 14, the spot price of ferromanganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis is - 208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 points [24]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Industry: The operating rate of 187 independent ferromanganese silicon enterprises is 39.59%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous week. The daily average output is 28,510 tons, a decrease of 330 tons. The weekly demand for ferromanganese silicon in five major steel types is 118,589 tons, a decrease of 2.08% from the previous week, and the weekly supply of national ferromanganese silicon is 199,570 tons, a decrease of 1.14% from the previous week. The inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese silicon enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, with a total inventory of 346,500 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons [28][32]. - Upstream: As of November 12, the price of South African manganese ore and Australian manganese ore in Tianjin Port remained unchanged. As of November 10, the electricity price in Ningxia remained unchanged, and in Inner Mongolia it decreased by 0.025 yuan/kWh. As of November 7, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.397 million tons, an increase of 1.92%. The arrival volume of South African manganese ore this week is 516,800 tons, an increase of 16% from the previous week, Australian manganese ore is 67,300 tons, an increase of 100%, Gabonese manganese ore is 70,000 tons, an increase of 100%, and Ghanaian manganese ore is 0 tons, a decrease of 100%. As of November 13, the spot production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.16%, and in Ningxia it increased by 0.25%. The spot profit in the northern region increased by 13.09% [39][45][49]. - Downstream: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons from the previous week and 9,400 tons from the same period last year. The final price of ferromanganese silicon set by HBIS Group in November is 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, due to the impact of the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly declined, and the demand is still weak, with prices continuing the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to reach an inflection point [2]. - For iron ore, high inventory still suppresses the price. In the short term, the rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin. In the macro vacuum period, the futures price is likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore fundamentals are weak. The short - term ore price will operate within the shock range, with the lower limit between 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is considered that looking for a callback position to do a rebound may have a higher cost - performance ratio than continuing to short. The subsequent overseas situation will be a definite situation of both fiscal and monetary easing, and domestic demand - stimulating policies are still expected. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For polysilicon, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Be cautious about the authenticity of long and short news [16]. - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, and the downstream demand is average. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5166 tons to 90327 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 10693 lots to 1.857343 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 12063 tons to 107606 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8957 lots to 1.302507 million lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong and Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coils had weak demand, could not absorb the production, and the inventory showed a counter - seasonal accumulation. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (- 1.50), and the positions decreased by 7106 lots to 494,100 lots. The weighted positions were 910,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.07% [4]. - The Simandou iron ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to reach full production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4]. Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrivals decreased. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal production was 236.88 tons, up 2.66 tons. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with an increase in the utilization rate of some blast furnace capacities. The steel mill profitability continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the short - term rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 13, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium to the futures price of 134 yuan/ton [7]. - The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.29% at 5506 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a discount to the futures price of 6 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - In November, the macro environment entered a relative vacuum period, and the pricing of the black sector returned to the fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trading in the black sector, but it was considered a temporary shock and emotional release with limited downside space. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for a callback position to do a rebound. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9145 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.54% (- 50). The weighted positions increased by 6269 lots to 418,415 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 205 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 195 yuan/ton [12]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 54195 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.37% (+ 735). The weighted positions increased by 2397 lots to 237,112 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 2045 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, in October, the production continued to increase. In November, the production in the southwest is expected to decline. The demand for polysilicon decreased, and the organic silicon production is expected to be stable. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [13]. - For polysilicon, in November, some production capacities started maintenance, and the production is expected to decline in the last two months. The downstream silicon wafer production is also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1056 yuan/ton, up 0 + 0.67% (+ 7). The North China large - plate price was 1110 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 111,000 boxes (+ 0.18%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 57,921 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 52,810 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 2.06% (+ 25). The Shahe heavy - alkali price was 1194 yuan, up 30. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons (- 0.18%), including 907,100 tons of heavy - alkali inventory, up 75,000 tons, and 800,200 tons of light - alkali inventory, down 144,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 21,477 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 16,961 short positions [20]. Strategy Views - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, the downstream support is insufficient, the production enterprise shipment pressure increases, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, the downstream demand is average, especially the consumption of heavy - alkali is weak. Due to the industry - wide losses, some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21].