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美国滥施关税影响初现——2025年4月PMI分析|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-05-01 09:11
中国银河证券宏观经济研究 文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师助理 铁 伟奥 国 家 统 计 局 最 新 数 据 显 示 , 2 0 2 5 年 4 月 份 , 我 国 制 造 业 采 购 经 理 指 数 (PMI)为4 9 . 0%(前值50 . 5%),美国滥施关税影响初现。不过4月政 治局会议已经给出三大重要信号:一是保持国内储备政策的弹性;二是强 化底线思维,着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期;三是加紧加快既定 政策的落实落地,加大加力重点领域的政策实施力度。 以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ,作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 . 国家统计局4月30日发布数据显示,2025年4月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.0%(前值50.5%)。建筑业商务活动指数为51.9%,比上月下降1.5个百 分点;服务业商务活动指数为50.1%,比上月下降0.2个百分点。关税的影响已全面传导至制造业企业。 供需同时收缩,出口影响较为严峻。 4月生产指数49.8%(前值52.6%)。新订单指数49.2%,新出口订单44.7%,分别下降2.6和4.3pct。4月需求下降较大, 尤其是新出口订单 ...
4月PMI:经济景气度有所回落,关注增量政策落地
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 14:22
Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 recorded at 49%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a contraction in economic activity[1] - The production index and new orders index were at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both declining by 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The new export orders index fell to 44.7%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points, reflecting a significant impact from external demand constraints[9] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, with both production and new orders indices above 52.0%[1] - Equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and high-energy industries recorded PMIs of 49.6%, 49.4%, and 47.7%, respectively, all showing declines from the previous month[1] - The production index for the equipment manufacturing sector remained stable at the critical point of 50%[3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The overall production activity in manufacturing showed a slight decline, with the purchasing volume index at 46.3%, down 5.5 percentage points from last month[3] - Domestic demand has been supported by policies promoting consumption, with significant increases in the replacement of old consumer goods, leading to a sales boost of over 720 billion yuan[10] - The overall price levels for raw materials and finished products have decreased, with the purchasing price index at 47.0% and the factory price index at 44.8%, both down from the previous month[16] Future Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index for April was at 50.2%, indicating continued expansion despite a 1.2 percentage point decline from the previous month[22] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicating expansion in the sector[20] - Risks include fluctuations in international commodity prices and geopolitical tensions that could further impact economic stability[23]
49.0%!这一重要指数释放哪些信息
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-04-30 14:16
4月30日,国家统计局发布的数据显示,4月份制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.0%,比上月下降1.5个 百分点;非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.4%和50.2%,继续保持在扩张区间。 另外,受市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响,主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂 价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%,均比上月下降,制造业市场价格总体水平有所下降。文韬表示,4月份 供需整体的偏弱运行带动了原材料和产成品价格加快下行。 不可否认,外贸环境变化给我国制造业带来一定扰动,市场需求和企业生产短期有所放缓,原材料采 购、市场价格等方面也有所波动,但也要看到我国经济底座依然稳固,超大规模市场、完备产业链供应 链体系等优势持续发挥作用,前期出台以及增量可期的一系列有力有效的宏观经济政策能够护航经济行 稳致远。赵庆河也谈到,虽然4月份制造业PMI有所回落,但高技术制造业等相关行业继续保持扩张, 以内销为主的制造业企业生产经营总体稳定。 从重点行业看,高技术制造业持续向好。高技术制造业PMI为51.5%,明显高于制造业总体水平,其生 产指数和新订单指数均位于52.0%及以上。生产经营活动预期指数 ...
4月PMI数据点评:季节性因素叠加外部环境变化,制造业PMI降至收缩区间
Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - China's April manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to contraction territory[4] - The production index fell to 49.8%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points, while the new orders index declined to 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points[10] - New export orders plummeted to 44.7%, a significant drop of 4.3 percentage points, reflecting weakened external demand[10] Group 2: Economic Factors and Trends - Seasonal factors and external environment changes contributed to the decline in manufacturing PMI, with April historically showing negative month-on-month growth since 2016[6] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory output remained below the critical level, with the former at 47.0% and the latter at 44.8%, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances[15] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, showing resilience compared to other sectors, which experienced declines[17] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for April was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points but still indicating expansion[18] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, supported by increased consumer spending during the Qingming Festival[22] - The construction sector's business activity index remained robust at 51.9%, driven by infrastructure projects and government initiatives[26]
短期波动不改经济长期向好大势——解读4月份PMI数据
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-04-30 12:31
新华社北京4月30日电 题:短期波动不改经济长期向好大势——解读4月份PMI数据 新华社记者潘洁 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会4月30日发布数据显示,尽管4月份我国制造业采购 经理指数(PMI)为49%,比上月下降1.5个百分点,但我国经济总体产出持续扩张,长期向好的基本面 没有改变。 受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响,4月份制造业PMI回落至临界 点以下。不过,高技术制造业等相关行业继续保持扩张,以内销为主的制造业企业生产经营总体稳定, 企业预期仍保持乐观主基调。 由于外贸环境发生变化,我国制造业出口受到影响,国外需求短期收紧。4月份,新出口订单指数为 44.7%,较上月下降4.3个百分点。国外需求的收紧拖累了制造业整体市场需求,制造业新订单指数为 49.2%,较上月下降2.6个百分点,在连续2个月运行在51%以上后落入收缩区间。 受外部需求收紧影响,生产整体也略有下降。4月份,制造业生产指数为49.8%,较上月下降2.8个百分 点。供需整体偏弱运行带动原材料和产成品价格下行,主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为 47%和44.8%,比上月下降2.8和3 ...
三类行业继续保持扩张态势——4月PMI数据点评
一瑜中的· 2025-04-30 12:00
文 : 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜(执业证号:S0360518090001) 联系人: 陆银波(15210860866) 报告摘要 PMI 数据:制造业 PMI 回落至荣枯线以下 4 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0% ,前值为 50.5% 。具体分项来看: 1 ) PMI 生产指数为 49.8% ,前值为 52.6% ,回落 2.8 个百分点。 2 ) PMI 新订单指数为 49.2% ,前值为 51.8% 。 PMI 新出口订单指数为 44.7% ,前值为 49.0% 。 3 ) PMI 从业人员指数为 47.9% ,前值为 48.2% 。 4 )供货商配送时间指数 为 50.2% ,前值为 50.3% 。 5 ) PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.0% ,前值为 47.2% 。 其他行业: 1 )建筑业:建筑业商务活动指数为 51.9% ,比上月下降 1.5 个百分点。 2 )服务业:服务业 商务活动指数为 50.1% ,比上月下降 0.2 个百分点。 3 )综合产出: 4 月,综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2% ,比上月下降 1.2 个百分点,仍高于临界点。 PMI 点评:三类行业继续 ...
4月份制造业PMI公布 如何看待这一指标变化?专家解读
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-04-30 11:25
中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局服务业调查中心今天(30日)公布4月份中国采购经理指数。4月份 中国制造业采购经理指数为49%,回落到50%以下。如何看待作为宏观经济先行监测和预警指标的这一 变化? 4月份中国制造业采购经理指数为49%,较上月下降1.5个百分点。 中国物流与采购联合会副会长何辉:总体来说,制造业尽管是有一些回落,一方面当然受到美国关税影 响,另外一方面,事实上也是跟我们3月份回升的这个幅度比较大,属于一个调整性的。 分项指数变化显示,4月份我国制造业出口短期收紧,拖累市场需求整体。4月份新出口订单指数较上月 下降4.3个百分点,需求短期波动较为普遍。 中国物流与采购联合会副会长胡大剑:更多的是属于外部市场的影响,美国进行所谓的对等关税,确实 是严重影响了国际贸易,破坏了国际贸易的发展,全球的贸易需求也在进一步萎缩了,这势必对国内的 制造企业也会带来影响。 专家表示,尽管4月份外贸环境的变化给我国制造业带来一定的扰动,但是我国经济底座依然稳固,我 国超大规模市场、完备产业链供应链体系等优势持续发挥作用,可有效抵御外部冲击,保障经济的相对 稳定运行。 专家表示,虽然当前外贸压力的持续性尚不确定, ...
PMI点评:关税冲击制造业PMI大幅回落,Q2有望小幅反弹
Huafu Securities· 2025-04-30 11:25
关税冲击令出口风险大幅提升,4 月制造业 PMI 受供需两侧同步降温 宏 观 点 评 拖累而大幅走低。4 月制造业 PMI 大幅下行 1.5 个百分点至 49.0%,为 2023 年 6 月以来低位,呈现以下结构性特征:1)新订单指数大幅下行 2.6 个百 分点至49.2%,新出口订单下行幅度更大,4月下滑达4.3个百分点至44.7%, 后者创 2023 年以来新低,显示 4 月受美对华极端关税措施冲击我国出口不 确定性大幅提升,出口订单短期走低并构成制造业总需求偏弱的主要原因。 2)结构性指数中,与出口、固定投资相关度最高的装备制造业、高耗能行 业 PMI 分别回落达 2.4 和 1.6 个百分点至 49.6%、47.7%,降幅大于与消费 和新质生产力更为相关的消费品行业、高技术制造业 PMI,后两者 4 月分 别小幅下滑 0.6 和 0.8 个百分点至 49.4%、51.5%。这显示除出口不确定性 之外,房地产开发投资尚未迎来趋势性改善拐点,亦一定程度上持续抑制 制造业企业信心。消费方面则较为平稳,关税压力亦对新质生产力自主可 控研发创新活动形成侧面促进效果。3)在出口不确定性和固定投资不同程 度的压力影 ...
中采PMI点评:4月PMI:内外开始分化
宏 观 研 究 PMI 数据 2025 年 04 月 30 日 国 内 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 4 月 PMI:内外开始分化 ——中采 PMI 点评(25.04) 事件:4 月 30 日,国家统计局公布 4 月 PMI 指数,制造业 PMI 为 49%、前值 50.5%; 非制造业 PMI 为 50.4%、前值 50.8%。 ⚫ 核心观点:4 月新出口订单已明显下滑,但内需如基建与消费品行业 PMI 仍维持韧性。 4 月 PMI 整体与分项读数均有走弱,但相对来看新订单指数更弱,生产仍维持较高水平。 4 月制造业 PMI 边际下行 1.5pct 至 49%;剔除供应商配货指数的 PMI 也回落 1.5pct。 结构上生产、新订单指数均有回落,边际分别下行 2.8、2.6pct。由于 PMI 为环比指标, 反映本月制造业景气度较上月的边际变化;产需对比看,新 ...
4月PMI数据点评:外需对经济的冲击开始显现
Soochow Securities· 2025-04-30 10:31
Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for April is 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[1] - The service sector PMI stands at 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, while the construction PMI is at 51.9%, also down 1.5 percentage points[1] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is the largest among the three sectors, falling below the 50% threshold, signaling external demand's impact on the economy[1] Group 2: External Demand Impact - Concerns over tariffs have materialized, with the April manufacturing PMI drop exceeding the historical average decline of 0.7 percentage points[1] - The April manufacturing PMI's month-on-month decline of 1.5 percentage points is the third largest for this period in the last decade, following declines of 2.1 and 2.7 percentage points in April 2022 and 2023, respectively[1] - The manufacturing production index fell by 2.8 percentage points to 49.8%, while the new orders index decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 49.2%, primarily due to a drop in export orders[1] Group 3: Employment and Pricing Trends - The employment index in manufacturing decreased slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9%, while the construction employment index fell significantly to 37.8%, the lowest on record[2] - The input price index for raw materials dropped by 2.8 percentage points to 47%, while the output price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.8%, indicating greater pressure on output prices compared to input prices[2] - The textile and equipment manufacturing sectors, which are more reliant on external demand, experienced greater declines in PMI compared to high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods sectors[2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that external demand pressures may increase in May and June due to tariff changes and global manufacturing trends[1] - To counteract the impact of declining exports, boosting service demand is highlighted as a critical strategy, requiring more policy support to enhance overall economic activity[2] - Upcoming growth stabilization policies are expected to be implemented in the second quarter, focusing on expanding domestic demand, particularly in consumption, to mitigate export impacts[2]