美股周二显著向下，受地缘政局紧张影响，市场避险情绪升温，三大指数均录得显著跌幅收市。美元走 势向下，美国十年期债息急升至4.29厘水平，金价持续破顶，油价表现则靠稳。 今日港股三大指数集体低开，恒指开盘跌0.34%，报26397.04点，恒科指跌0.7%，国企指数跌0.3%。盘 面上，科网股普跌，哔哩哔哩跌超2%，快手、联想、小米跌超1%；黄金股延续涨势，招金矿业涨超 4%；商业航天概念股继续下跌，亚太卫星跌超1%；电力设备股低开，福莱特玻璃跌超1%。 今日港股三大指数集体低开，恒指开盘跌0.34%，报26397.04点，恒科指跌0.7%，国企指数跌0.3%。盘 面上，科网股普跌，哔哩哔哩跌超2%，快手、联想、小米跌超1%；黄金股延续涨势，招金矿业涨超 4%；商业航天概念股继续下跌，亚太卫星跌超1%；电力设备股低开，福莱特玻璃跌超1%。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国企指数 | 9067.54 | -27.22 | -0.30% | | 800100 | | | | | 恒生指数 | 26397.04 | -90.47 | -0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment strategies for each sector. For instance, in the financial derivatives sector, A - share markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to control risks; in the commodity futures sector, different commodities face different supply - demand pressures and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Alumina**: The market is in a surplus situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. The price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected, and the price in January is under pressure. Strategies such as EG5 - 9 anti - arbitrage are recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, but the futures price has over - anticipated the increase. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by export growth, it attempts to break through resistance levels. Domestically, it may try to break through 8750 yuan and may briefly reach 9000 yuan [5]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts boost safe - haven demand, and the price is expected to be strong in the long - term. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average [6]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: A - share major indices declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is divided, and small and medium - sized indices corrected [7][8]. - **News**: The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic growth and price recovery [8]. - **Funding**: Trading volume increased slightly, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal. - **Operation Suggestion**: Control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [9]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose, and bond yields generally declined [10][11]. - **Funding**: The central bank had a net capital withdrawal, and the inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable [11]. - **Policy**: The fiscal policy in 2026 will be more active to support economic stability [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt range - bound operations and pay attention to basis - widening strategies [12]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Geopolitical and trade conflicts led to the selling of US and Japanese bonds, a decline in the US dollar and US stocks, and the precious metals market remained strong [13][14][15]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term due to geopolitical and trade risks. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium will follow gold with narrowed fluctuations [15][16]. 3.4 Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [17]. - **Logic**: The futures price is under pressure from the downward trend of spot prices [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term fluctuations [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: The spot discount widened, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18][21]. - **Macro**: The US is promoting negotiations on key minerals, which affects the tariff expectations for copper [19][22]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC decreased, and the electrolytic copper production showed different trends in December and is expected to decline slightly in January [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream copper processing industry's operating rate was low, and the terminal demand was weak [20]. - **Logic**: The copper price may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe, and enter long positions after adjustment. Pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [23]. 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the inventory increased weekly by 7.9 tons [23][24]. - **Supply**: The production may decrease slightly in January due to some enterprises' losses [24]. - **Logic**: The market is in surplus, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short at high prices within the range of 2600 - 2900 [25]. 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was cold [25]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may continue to decline [26]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate was low, and the demand was weak [26]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton in the short - term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not chase high prices. Enter long positions after a pullback within the range of 23000 - 25000 [29]. 3.5.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the market maintained rigid demand [29]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline slightly in January due to raw material shortages [29][30]. - **Demand**: The demand is in a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission is not smooth [30]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton in the short - term [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long AD03 and short AL03 for arbitrage within the range of 22000 - 24000 [31]. 3.5.5 Zinc - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was general [32]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is tight, and the refined zinc production decreased in December [33]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate declined, and the demand was weak [34]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [35][36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 23800, and hold long positions in the long - term. Hold cross - market anti - arbitrage [36]. 3.5.6 Tin - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was general [36]. - **Supply**: The tin ore and tin ingot import and export showed different trends in December [37]. - **Demand**: The downstream tin - soldering industry's operating rate declined, and the terminal demand was divided [38]. - **Logic**: The price is affected by market sentiment and is expected to be volatile. Consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe [39]. 3.5.7 Nickel - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was weak [39]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production increased, and the market supply was sufficient [40]. - **Demand**: The demand in different sectors showed different trends, and the stainless - steel demand was general [40]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 138000 - 148000 [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations [42]. 3.5.8 Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, and the basis declined [43]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel increased, and the price of ferrochrome was firm [43]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase in January, and the supply is relatively loose [44]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 13800 - 14600, and attention should be paid to the ore news and downstream inventory [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Operate within the range of 13800 - 14600 [46]. 3.5.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was boosted [46][47]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance [47]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, but the 1 - month demand may decline [48]. - **Logic**: The futures price increased sharply due to supply - side speculation. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term, and enter long positions at low prices in the medium - term [50]. 3.5.10 Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price increased slightly [50]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and the first quarter of 2026 [50]. - **Demand**: The demand may be improved by export demand, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [51]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be supported at 48000 yuan/ton. Wait and observe and consider hedging [52]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at high - level fluctuations [52]. 3.5.11 Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price was stable [53]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and February [53]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline in January, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production [53]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [55]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at low - level fluctuations and pay attention to the production cut [55]. 3.6 Ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the basis of rebar strengthened [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar [56]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Demand**: The demand declined seasonally, and the post - holiday demand elasticity is limited [57]. - **Logic**: The steel price may decline due to cost reduction. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exit long positions on the steel - ore ratio at high prices and hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [57]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot**: The spot price declined [58]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory increased [58][59]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand was weak, and the iron - making production declined [58]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations within the range of 770 - 830 [60]. 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Spot**: The Shanxi coal price increased more than it decreased, and the Mongolian coal price declined [61][63]. - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly [63]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand for replenishment increased, and the coking plant's profit declined [63]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [63]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1000 - 1150 [63]. 3.6.4 Coke - **Spot**: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the port price declined [64][65]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the coking plant's profit was under pressure [64][65]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand increased, and the iron - making production increased [65]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1750 [65]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1600 - 1750 [65]. 3.6.5 Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The spot price was stable [66]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost was stable, and the profit was negative [66]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [66][67]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries declined [67]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5800, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [67]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5300 - 5800 [67]. 3.6.6 Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The spot price declined slightly [69]. - **Cost**: The cost was relatively high, and the profit was negative [69]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [70][71]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry declined, and the inventory was high [71]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5600 - 6000, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [71]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5600 - 6000 [71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price increased [72]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian soybean production and export are affected by weather and other factors [73]. - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 2700 [74]. 3.7.2 Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price declined slightly [75]. - **Market Data**: The breeding profit improved, and the slaughter weight increased [75]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a game between supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [76]. 3.7.3 Corn - **Spot Price**: The price was stable in most areas [77]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [78]. - **Outlook**: The price is supported by supply shortage and pre - holiday demand but limited by policy supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [79]. 3.7.4 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. The price is expected to be weak [80]. - **Fundamentals**: The Indian sugar production increased, and the Brazilian sugar production decreased [80]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term [80]. 3.7.5 Cotton - **Analysis**: The ICE cotton price is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be adjusted [82]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton inspection progress is behind, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing [82]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to be adjusted [82]. 3.7.6 Eggs - **Spot Market**: The price was stable in most areas, and the supply and demand were balanced [84]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [84]. - **Demand**: The trader's purchasing is cautious, and the inventory has increased [84]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [84]. 3.7.7 Oils - **Analysis**: The palm oil price is boosted by exports, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by multiple factors. The prices are expected to fluctuate [85][87][88]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil export and reference price change, and the US soybean oil supply is sufficient [86][88]. - **Outlook**: The palm oil may break through resistance levels, and the

黄金价格升至纪录新高，白银价格也接近历史高点，格陵兰危机恶化和日本国债崩跌推动避险需求升 温。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普丝毫没有放弃吞并格陵兰岛的意图。格陵兰岛总理已告知民众做好应对可能的 军事入侵的准备，虽然他表示这种情况不太可能发生。 市场消息，丹麦养老基金"AkademikerPension"计划在1月底前出售其持有的全部美国国债，原因是其认 为特朗普的政策存在信用风险。 现货金价一度触及每盎司4781.19美元。 瑞银贵金属策略师Joni Teves日前在接受采访时表示，多元化配置需求是本轮金价上行的核心驱动力， 机构投资者、零售投资者及各国央行均在增持黄金以应对宏观不确定性。她预计金价上半年仍有上攻动 能，若市场对美联储独立性的担忧持续升温，金价在上半年有望冲击5000美元/盎司关口。白银则受益 于金价上涨的带动及自身供需缺口收窄，今年或挑战100美元/盎司。铜市场在能源转型需求拉动下，供 需格局趋紧，价格中枢有望抬升。 黄金及贵金属相关港股： 紫金黄金国际(02259)、赤峰黄金（600988）(06693)、山东黄金（600547）(01787)、招金矿业 （01818）、灵宝黄金（03330)、 ...

瑞银贵金属策略师Joni Teves日前在接受采访时表示，多元化配置需求是本轮金价上行的核心驱动力， 机构投资者、零售投资者及各国央行均在增持黄金以应对宏观不确定性。她预计金价上半年仍有上攻动 能，若市场对美联储独立性的担忧持续升温，金价在上半年有望冲击5000美元/盎司关口。白银则受益 于金价上涨的带动及自身供需缺口收窄，今年或挑战100美元/盎司。铜市场在能源转型需求拉动下，供 需格局趋紧，价格中枢有望抬升。 黄金及贵金属相关港股： 紫金黄金国际(02259)、赤峰黄金(06693)、山东黄金(01787)、招金矿业（01818）、灵宝黄金（03330)、 潼关黄金（00340）、中国黄金国际（02099）、中国白银集团(00815)、珠峰黄金(01815)等。 智通财经APP获悉，波兰央行(NBP)当地时间周二表示，已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划，此举将 使该国的黄金储备总量增加到700吨。 波兰央行在一份声明中称："这将使波兰跻身全球黄金储备量最大的前10个国家之列。"波兰央行行长 Adam Glapinsk上周宣布，他希望央行管理委员会将黄金持有量上限从截至12月31日的550吨提高到700 ...

今日提示 ·利欧股份1月21日开市起复牌。 上证精选 ·1月20日，财政部副部长廖岷表示，2026年，按照中央经济工作会议部署，财政部门将继续实施更加积 极的财政政策。通过加强财政资源和预算统筹、强化预算绩效管理、落实优化出口退税政策、清理规范 税收优惠和财政补贴等改革举措，进一步增强地方财政发展动能、助力全国统一大市场建设。2026年财 政部门将"硬核"支持稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，确保"十五五"实现良好开局。 ·1月20日，财政部综合司司长李先忠表示，近期财政部、税务总局发布公告，明确自2026年4月1日起取 消光伏等产品出口退税，并分两年取消电子产品出口退税。此次出口退税政策调整，有利于促进资源高 效利用，也有利于引导产业结构合理调整，综合整治"内卷式"无序竞争，推动经济高质量发展。 ·财政部金融司司长于红20日表示，下一步，财政部将会同有关方面持续推进农业保险提质增效、深化 改革。2026年，财政部还将出台推进加快农业保险高质量发展的指导性文件，这个文件着力在农业保险 精细化管理、多元化协同上下功夫，为稳定农户收益、支持乡村全面振兴、服务保障国家粮食安全作出 更大的贡献。 ·1月20日，上海发布 ...

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在市场风格转向价值板块的背景下，股东减持行为呈现出不同的特征。 贵金属和环氧丙烷板块有着实实在在的涨价预期和业绩兑现能力，电网设备在十五 五期间的4万亿投资也是明确的利好。 这些板块与缺乏业绩兑现预期的AI应用方向形成鲜明对比。 根据减持相关规定，控股股东和持股5%以上股东通过集中竞价交易减持股份，每90天不得超过公司总股本的1%。 西部黄金的减持比例正好达到这一上限。 减持计划需要提前15个交易日公告，给予市场充分的反应时间。 2026年1月以来，A股市场出现了多起股东减持案例。 1月19日，长盈精密公告称控股股东拟减持不超过1%股份。 同日，伟思医疗公告实控人一致行动人拟 减持不超过3%公司股份。 三达膜公告股东清源中国拟减持不超过3%公司股份。 昨晚，当A股市场结束一天的交易后，西部黄金发布了一则公告。 这家黄金龙头企业的控股股东新疆有色计划减持不超过911万股，占总股本的1%，预计套 现规模约为2.8亿元。 西部黄金的股价从2024年低点的8.83元，最高涨至36元，区间涨幅高达3倍，创出历史新高。 去年三季报显示，公司营收同比增长106.2%，净利润同比增长 168.04%。 业绩与股价双双飙升的局 ...

记者｜黎雨桐 见习记者林芊蔚 编辑｜金珊 北京时间1月20日晚，美股三大指数大幅低开，截至23时20分，道琼斯指数跌1.37%，标普500指数跌 1.42%，纳斯达克综合指数跌1.72%。 中概股方面，纳斯达克金龙指数跌超0.78%，热门中概股普跌，小马智行跌超5.7%，B站跌超5%，蔚来 跌超4%。 | 虎虎科技国际 | 7.050 | -11.88% | | --- | --- | --- | | HUHU.O | | | | 晶科能源 | 27.000 | -8.47% | | JKS.N | | | | MICROALGO | 5.300 | -7.99% | | MLGO.O | | | | 世纪互联 | 9.760 | -7.53% | | VNET.O | | | | 亿航智能 | 13.375 | -7.50% | | EH.O | | | | 小马智行 | 15.369 | -5.71% | | PONY.O | | | | 昨 0 年 0 年 0 年 0 年 0 年 0 年 0 | 30.725 | -5.40% | | BILI.O | | | | 涂鸦智能 | 2.139 | -4.9 ...

美股存储芯片股逆势大涨， 美光科技公司股价上涨5%，再创历史新高，至少两家券商上调该公司股票目标价。闪迪涨8%，再创历史新高。希 捷科技涨超2%，西部数据涨超3%，股价同样刷新历史新高。消息面上，花旗集团将闪迪目标股价从280美元上调至490美元，将希捷科技目标 股价从320美元上调至385美元。 记者｜黎雨桐 见习记者林芊蔚 编辑｜金珊 北京时间1月20日晚，美股三大指数大幅低开，截至23时20分，道琼斯指数跌1.37%，标普500指数跌1.42%，纳斯达克综合指数跌1.72%。 大型科技股方面，英伟达、谷歌、苹果、特斯拉集体下跌，其中英伟达大跌超3%。 英特尔大涨6%。汇丰银行将英特尔目标价从26美元大幅上调至50美元，评级由"减持"上调至"持有"。 受金价创新高影响，黄金股全线上涨，金田升6.8%，泛美白银升4.38%，哈莫尼黄金升4.31%，纽曼矿业升2.52%，巴里克矿业升1.93%。 中概股方面，纳斯达克金龙指数跌超0.78%，热门中概股普跌，小马智行跌超5.7%，B站跌超5%，蔚来跌超4%。 | 虎虎科技国际 | 7.050 | -11.88% | | --- | --- | --- | | H ...

明日主题前瞻 点评：国泰海通认为，全球地缘政治局势的不确定性上升及各国央行持续购金，有利于支撑长期金价中枢。虽然投机性交易资金的流入阶段性抬升了黄金波 动中枢，但特朗普政府的一系列政策或进一步削弱美国国际信誉，黄金价格仍然具有较强的韧性。银河证券表示，从贵金属属性角度看，长期以来金银价格 走势具备高度相关性，从工业属性看，光伏，新能源等领域对白银的需求为银价提供坚实的中长期支撑，长期的避险情绪以及白银市场供应端的紧张状态不 会长期改变，白银价格上涨逻辑依然稳固。 3、乡村振兴 | 1月22日上午10点，国务院新闻办公室将举行新闻发布会，请农业农村部副部长张兴旺介绍加快农业农村现代化，扎实推进乡村全面振兴有关 情况。 点评：研究机构认为，目前我国农业综合效益仍有提升空间，存在农作物产出效率偏低，农业生产效益低，农业生产对农民增收作用下降等痛点，导致我国 农业产业整体竞争力偏低。2025年10月，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》发布，核心方向即是加速发展农业现代化，提 升农业综合生产能力和质量效益。生物技术作为与农业生产发展最为紧密的技术之一，与农业产业链全环节均有关联，将有效赋能农业 ...