1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The focus of observation has shifted to the government bond issuance in January 2026. The government bond issuance in January 2026 is in line with expectations. The long - end bonds are at the upper limit of the expected range and are worth participating in. For equities, the style is generally balanced with growth slightly dominant before the significant increase in government bond issuance. The report recommends a portfolio of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), the China Securities 1000 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [2][8][21] - In the deleveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The report recommends an A + H dividend portfolio of 13 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][55] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In November 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - economy sector was 8.6% (previous value: 8.7%), in line with expectations. It is expected to decline to around 8.3% in December 2025, lower than the 8.8% at the end of 2024, consistent with the goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio. The government debt growth rate is expected to decline to around 12.4% in December 2025 from 13.1% at the end of November 2025. The central bank's stance on stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged, and the quantitative fiscal targets are awaited from the Two Sessions in 2026 [2][16][17] - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the capital market tightened marginally. The one - year Treasury bond yield rose to 1.34% at the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, with a central value around 1.4%, and a 10 - basis - point interest rate cut is expected in 2026. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 51 basis points. The spreads between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds and between the thirty - year and ten - year Treasury bonds are expected to be in the range of 20 - 50 basis points, and the future yield ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bonds are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3][17] - **Asset Side**: In November 2025, the physical volume data showed signs of stabilizing at a low level compared to October. The full - year real economic growth target for 2025 was set at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target was around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether a nominal economic growth rate of around 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][18] 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - **Macroeconomic Background**: Since 2011, China has entered a period of declining potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in Q4 2024. Subsequently, China's profit cycle has entered a state of narrow - range oscillation at a low level. The government's policy goals of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio, having the financial sector benefit the real economy, and ensuring that housing is for living in rather than speculation are still in effect, and the deleveraging on the liability side has limited room for further contraction. If the valuation of the technology sector in the US is re - evaluated, global funds may flow from the US to China, and attention should be paid to whether the RMB exchange rate will enter an appreciation channel. The risk appetite may also oscillate within a certain range [6][19] - **Market Performance**: Last week, the capital market tightened marginally, resulting in a double - kill of stocks and bonds, with the growth style still dominant. The yields of both long - and short - term bonds rose, and the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favored stocks. The ten - year Treasury bond yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.85%, the one - year Treasury bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 1.34%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield rose by 4 basis points to 2.27%. The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 0.03 pct last week but has underperformed the CSI 300 Index by - 5.34 pct since its establishment in July 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared to 15.7% for the CSI 300 Index) [7][20] 3.3 Industry Recommendations - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, the A - share market rose with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58% and the ChiNext Index fell 1.25%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, media, automobiles, and machinery and equipment had the largest increases, with weekly changes of 3.9%, 3.1%, 2.1%, 1.4%, and 1.3% respectively. Public utilities, food and beverages, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance had the largest declines, with weekly changes of - 2.7%, - 2.3%, - 2.2%, - 2.1%, and - 1.8% respectively [26][27] - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of December 31, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, power equipment, machinery and equipment, national defense and military industry, and computers, with values of 15.5%, 9.4%, 8.9%, 8%, and 6.8% respectively. The bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, coal, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals. The top five industries with increased crowding this week were media, machinery and equipment, household appliances, computers, and national defense and military industry. The trading volume of the entire A - share market rebounded this week. Media, petroleum and petrochemicals, computers, beauty care, and national defense and military industry had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume [28][30] - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, media, machinery and equipment, and automobiles had the largest increases, while public utilities, food and beverages, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance had the largest declines. Industries with high full - year 2024 profit forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to historical levels include banking, insurance, coal, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceuticals, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [34][35] - **Industry Prosperity**: Externally, there was a marginal decline in demand. The global manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.5 to 50.4 in December. Internally, the second - hand housing price remained flat in the latest week, and the quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries showed a fluctuating upward trend from May to December 2025 [39] - **Public Fund Market Review**: In the fifth week of December (December 29 - 31), most actively managed public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300 Index. As of December 31, the net asset value of actively managed public equity funds was 3.95 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [52] - **Industry Recommendations**: In the deleveraging cycle, an A + H dividend portfolio of 13 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [55]

Core Insights - The bull market in 2025 has not benefited the company as expected, reflecting a lack of structural opportunities and strategic missteps [1][2][32] - The company acknowledges the need for continuous improvement and adaptation in investment strategies despite the cyclical nature of markets [1][2] Market Review - The global stock market in 2025 saw significant gains, with major indices in developed and emerging markets reaching historical highs, particularly in South Korea with a 76% annual increase [2][32] - The Chinese stock market also performed well, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experiencing double-digit growth, yet the company's relative performance was disappointing [2][32] - The technology sector, especially in computing power, was identified as a missed opportunity, contributing to lower overall portfolio returns [2][33] Historical Context - The company reflects on past market conditions, particularly the extreme differentiation seen in 2013-2015 and 2020-2021, which led to significant investment challenges [3][34][35] - In 2013, the company faced difficulties due to a lack of adjustment in investment logic amidst changing economic conditions, resulting in poor performance [3][34] - The 2020-2021 period saw a focus on high-growth sectors, which, despite being viewed as overvalued, still yielded positive returns due to strategic positioning in certain stocks [3][35] Strategic Insights - The company recognizes the need to prioritize corporate governance in weak-cycle assets, particularly in state-owned enterprises, which may have lower efficiency compared to private firms [6][37] - A strategy to differentiate between strong and weak cycle assets is proposed, emphasizing the importance of governance in investment decisions [6][38] Overseas Investment - The company has made initial strides in overseas investments, particularly in Japan and Southeast Asia, although it acknowledges the need for deeper understanding of these markets [8][39] - Currency fluctuations are highlighted as a significant risk in overseas investments, necessitating careful consideration as investment scales increase [8][39] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a potential systemic revaluation of undervalued stocks in 2026, driven by ongoing liquidity support [10][42] - The AI computing bubble is expected to burst, with a focus on application and edge computing remaining crucial for future investment strategies [14][46][48] - The company emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between short-term market trends and long-term value creation, particularly in the context of consumer spending and economic recovery [19][21][43]

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Telecom Company (STC) and Humain have signed a six-month memorandum of understanding to establish a joint venture for developing and operating an artificial intelligence data center in Saudi Arabia [1] Group 1: Joint Venture Details - The joint venture will be co-owned, with STC holding 49% and Humain holding 51% [1] - The data center will require a load of 1000 megawatts, with an initial capacity of 250 megawatts [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the simultaneous rise and fall of global celebrities in 2025, showcasing individuals who have made significant comebacks after facing severe setbacks, including legal issues, financial losses, and public scrutiny [2]. Group 1: Notable Comebacks - Zhao Changpeng, founder of Binance, received a presidential pardon from Trump after serving four months in federal prison and paying a $4.3 billion fine, allowing him to return to the cryptocurrency sector with a portfolio valued at $10 billion [5]. - Dylan Fields, co-founder and CEO of Figma, successfully led the company to an IPO, raising $1.2 billion, despite previous uncertainties surrounding a $20 billion acquisition offer from Adobe [11]. - Charles Ergen, CEO of EchoStar, managed to turn around the company's fortunes by selling spectrum licenses to AT&T, resulting in a threefold increase in his wealth to $14 billion [10]. Group 2: Industry Transformations - Manus, founded by Xiao Hong, was acquired by Meta for over $2 billion, marking a rapid turnaround from its previous struggles and setting a record for the speed of acquisition in the AI sector [6]. - Li Min, founder of Rockchip, saw his wealth rise from $1.4 billion to $4 billion as the company reported a 137.51% year-on-year increase in net profit, driven by successful product launches [7]. - Chen Tian Shi, founder of Cambricon, achieved a remarkable 2386.38% increase in revenue, reaching 4.607 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, positioning him among the world's wealthiest individuals [8]. Group 3: Personal Resilience - Anne Wojcicki, co-founder and CEO of 23andMe, faced bankruptcy and stepped down but later regained control of the company through a successful bid by her nonprofit organization, demonstrating resilience in the face of adversity [19]. - The Gallagher brothers from Oasis reunited for a successful global tour, generating over $4.05 billion in ticket sales, marking a significant comeback for the band after years of conflict [16].

Core Points - The "Agreement on Trade in Services and Investment between the Government of the People's Republic of China and the Government of the Republic of Belarus" will be signed on August 22, 2024, and will officially take effect on January 1, 2026 [1] - The agreement aims for high-level mutual openness in service trade and investment between China and Belarus, utilizing a positive list approach for service trade commitments [1] - Specific facilitation rules are established for seven key service sectors: telecommunications, transportation and logistics, finance, postal and express delivery, health, tourism and travel, and computing [1] - For non-service investment, a "pre-establishment national treatment plus negative list" model is adopted, along with comprehensive investment protection rules [1] - The agreement also includes provisions on temporary movement of natural persons, e-commerce, intellectual property, competition, small and medium-sized enterprises, and dispute resolution [1] - This agreement marks the first free trade agreement signed by China with a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, enhancing bilateral trade and investment cooperation potential between China and Belarus [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Ruixiang Communication Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 5 million RMB, fully owned by Guangdong Pingge Digital Technology Co., Ltd. [1] Company Summary - The legal representative of Shenzhen Ruixiang Communication Technology Co., Ltd. is Xian Guangyuan [1] - The company is classified under the information transmission, software, and information technology services industry, specifically in telecommunications, broadcasting, television, and satellite transmission services [1] - The registered address is located at 105 Meihua Road, Meifeng Community, Meilin Street, Futian District, Shenzhen [1] - The company type is a limited liability company (sole proprietorship) with an operating period until December 30, 2025, with no fixed term thereafter [1] Shareholder Information - Guangdong Pingge Digital Technology Co., Ltd. holds 100% of the shares in Shenzhen Ruixiang Communication Technology Co., Ltd. [1] Business Scope - The general business scope includes technology services, development, consulting, communication, transfer, and promotion; satellite communication services; satellite navigation services; sales of satellite mobile communication terminals; and system integration for satellite navigation multi-mode enhancement applications and remote sensing applications [1] - The licensed business scope includes second-class value-added telecommunications services and construction engineering contracting, which require approval from relevant authorities before commencement [1]

Market Overview - The tech bubble from 1995 to 2000 was driven by technological advancements, macroeconomic changes, regulatory relaxations, and shifts in monetary policy frameworks[6] - The NASDAQ Composite Index peaked at 5048.62 on March 10, 2000, before a significant sell-off began due to external economic shocks[9] Economic Factors - Labor productivity in the U.S. increased significantly during this period, breaking the long-standing relationship of "low unemployment and high inflation" and contributing to economic resilience[6] - The rapid increase in productivity led to a contraction of the output gap, with inflation remaining subdued despite declining unemployment rates[17] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve, under Alan Greenspan, adopted a technology-friendly monetary policy framework, maintaining low interest rates to support economic growth while being cautious about inflation[22] - The Fed's approach evolved to focus on maintaining overall price stability and managing the consequences of asset bubbles rather than attempting to burst them[23] Investment Trends - The number of tech IPOs surged from 1995, peaking in 1999, reflecting a growing investor appetite for technology stocks[9] - In 1998 and 1999, tech stocks experienced a significant rally, with the information technology sector showing returns of 77.64% and 78.44% respectively[32] Risk Factors - The report highlights that excessive liquidity and regulatory relaxation were common characteristics of bubbles, with the potential for chaotic leverage expansion being a critical concern[6] - The experience of the tech bubble serves as a cautionary tale, emphasizing that historical patterns cannot be solely relied upon for future investment decisions[2]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Tianguang Zhike Communication Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 5 million RMB, fully owned by Guangdong Pingge Digital Technology Co., Ltd. [1] Company Information - The legal representative of Shenzhen Tianguang Zhike Communication Technology Co., Ltd. is Xian Guangyuan [1] - The company is classified under the information transmission, software, and information technology services industry, specifically in telecommunications, broadcasting, television, and satellite transmission services [1] - The business address is located at 2201F3, Qiancheng Commercial Center, Haicheng Road, Mabu Community, Xixiang Street, Bao'an District, Shenzhen [1] - The company type is a limited liability company (sole proprietorship) with an operating period until December 30, 2025, with no fixed term thereafter [1] Shareholding Structure - Guangdong Pingge Digital Technology Co., Ltd. holds 100% of the shares in Shenzhen Tianguang Zhike Communication Technology Co., Ltd. [1] Business Scope - The general business scope includes technical services, development, consulting, communication, transfer, and promotion, as well as satellite communication services, satellite navigation services, and sales of satellite mobile communication terminals [1] - The company is also involved in satellite navigation multi-mode enhancement application system integration and satellite remote sensing application system integration [1] - The licensed business scope includes second-class value-added telecommunications services and construction engineering contracting, subject to approval by relevant authorities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Shikong Xingfan Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 50 million RMB, fully owned by Shanghai Yushi Tianxi Technology Co., Ltd. [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of Shanghai Shikong Xingfan Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. is not specified in the document [1] - The company is classified as a limited liability company with a business scope that includes technology services, satellite navigation services, satellite communication terminal manufacturing, and satellite remote sensing data processing [1] - The registered address is located at 288 Lane, Qianfan Road, Xinqiao Town, Songjiang District, Shanghai [1] Shareholding Structure - The sole shareholder is Shanghai Yushi Tianxi Technology Co., Ltd., holding 100% of the shares [1] Business Scope - The business activities include technology development, consulting, and transfer, as well as satellite communication services and engineering research [1] - Licensed projects include civil aerospace launch technology services, small satellite manufacturing, and rocket control system research and development [1]

Group 1 - The State Intellectual Property Office of China has granted a patent to China Mobile Financial Technology Co., Ltd. and China Mobile Communications Group Co., Ltd. for a method and device for identity authentication, with the announcement number CN118827124B and an application date of March 2024 [1] - China Mobile Financial Technology Co., Ltd. was established in 2018, located in Beijing, with a registered capital of 1 billion RMB. The company has made investments in one enterprise, participated in 2,697 bidding projects, and holds 33 trademark records and 499 patent records, along with 5 administrative licenses [1] - China Mobile Communications Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1999, also based in Beijing, with a registered capital of 30 billion RMB. The company has invested in 54 enterprises, engaged in 5,000 bidding projects, and possesses 2,217 trademark records and 5,000 patent records, in addition to 50 administrative licenses [1]