Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that international oil prices experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing situation in Ukraine. As of November 28, 2025, Brent and WTI oil prices were reported at $62.38 and $58.55 per barrel, respectively [2][9] - The report indicates an increase in U.S. crude oil and refined product inventories, which negatively impacted the market. However, a reduction in the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. and skepticism regarding the peace negotiations in Ukraine contributed to price volatility [2][9] - The report notes that the oil and petrochemical sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with a decline of 0.73% in the sector as of November 28, 2025 [10] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of November 28, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $62.38 per barrel, down $0.18 (-0.29%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures increased by $0.49 (+0.84%) to $58.55 per barrel [24] - The report also mentions the Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude fell by $0.84 (-1.56%) to $53.16 per barrel [24] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was reported at 366, with a net increase of 1 platform. The floating drilling platform count rose to 129, with an increase of 2 platforms [27] U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.814 million barrels per day, a decrease of 20,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs fell to 407, down by 12 rigs [38] U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing averaged 16.443 million barrels per day, an increase of 211,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 92.30%, up 2.3 percentage points [45] U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories reached 838 million barrels, an increase of 3.272 million barrels (+0.39%) from the previous week. Strategic reserves were at 411 million barrels, up 498,000 barrels (+0.12%) [54] Refined Oil Products - In the North American market, average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were reported at $99.57, $79.04, and $89.17 per barrel, respectively, with corresponding price differentials to crude oil [77]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the petrochemical industry. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of production cuts in caprolactam on pricing stability, while the price spread for nylon fibers has narrowed [2]. - Domestic key refining project price spread increased to 2425.48 CNY/ton, a week-on-week rise of 29.04 CNY/ton (+1.21%), while international key refining project price spread decreased to 1277.36 CNY/ton, a decline of 151.77 CNY/ton (-10.62%) [3]. - Brent crude oil weekly average price was reported at 63.18 USD/barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.05% [2]. Refining Sector Summary - The report discusses the geopolitical situation regarding the Russia-Ukraine peace plan, which has led to fluctuations in international oil prices. Brent and WTI crude prices were reported at 63.20 and 58.55 USD/barrel respectively, with slight increases from the previous week [14]. - Domestic refined oil prices showed minor fluctuations, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6787.00, 7603.14, and 5905.76 CNY/ton respectively [14]. Chemical Sector Summary - The chemical products market experienced a general decline in prices due to weak demand, with notable decreases in polyethylene price spreads [2]. - The report indicates that the nylon fiber price spread has narrowed significantly due to rising costs in the caprolactam market, despite being in a traditional demand off-season [2]. Polyester & Nylon Sector Summary - Polyester cost remained stable, while nylon costs increased significantly, leading to a notable narrowing of the price spread for nylon fibers [2]. - The report mentions that the polyester upstream prices for PX and MEG have slightly decreased, while PTA prices have shown a slight increase [2]. Key Refining Companies Performance - The report provides stock performance data for six major refining companies, with notable weekly changes including Rongsheng Petrochemical (-0.92%) and Xin Fengming (+7.08%) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report predicts that the valuation of asphalt may decline in the second half of the year. The current independent refinery operations are at a low level, with limited room for further decline. Although there is no significant short - term import - driven factor, the return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will limit the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil). Meanwhile, the weak and volatile cost of crude oil will also restrict the upward movement of asphalt's single - side price [16]. - In the short term, the high - probability and high - winning - rate period for shorting the asphalt/crude oil valuation has passed, and the valuation is currently in the process of repair. Given the weak fundamentals of asphalt itself, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The report presents a chart of the recent monthly trend of the asphalt main contract, showing changes in supply - demand and cost factors over time [13][14]. - **Medium - Term Impact Factor Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and the resumption of major refinery operations will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation, while local refineries are likely to remain relatively sluggish in the short to medium term. Regarding demand, the downstream operating rate has improved slightly compared to previous years, but overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure peak season. In terms of cost, the upward space for oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the wide - range volatility center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly [16]. - **Short - Term Factor Assessment**: Supply shows that the operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt has started to rise, and imports remain strong; demand has entered the off - season, with the demand for rubber shoe materials falling far short of expectations; inventory is slowly decreasing but still below expectations. In terms of cost, the view that oil prices will remain weak at the end of the fourth quarter remains unchanged, but if shale oil production is restricted and there is strong demand in the peak season of the following year and strategic reserves from various countries, a long - term bullish outlook can be considered from the perspective of the shale oil break - even point [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [17]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: It provides price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [20][23][26]. - **Basis Trend**: Displays the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [32]. - **Term Structure**: Presents the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contract months [35][36]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: Shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt, as well as the relationship between asphalt operating rate and profit, and the relationship between asphalt profit and crude oil price [43][46][49]. - **Imports**: Includes the import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, import profit from different regions, and cumulative import volumes from different countries [54][56][62]. - **Valuation Ratio**: Compares the ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [65]. - **Refinery Profit**: Displays the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries [68]. - **Petroleum Coke**: Presents the operating rate and production profit of petroleum coke [71]. 3.4. Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: Includes domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total domestic inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [76]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shows the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract [79]. - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: Presents the relationships between inventory and profit, and between profit and price [82]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: Displays the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [86]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Includes the operating rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [97][100]. - **Highway Investment**: Presents highway construction investment, transportation fiscal expenditure data, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [102][105][112]. - **Road - Related Machinery**: Displays the sales volumes of road - related machinery such as road rollers and excavators, as well as the operating hours of excavators [113][116]. - **Related Consumption**: Includes fixed - asset investment completion data and local government special bond issuance data [120]. 3.6. Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: Displays the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [130][128]. 3.7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: Involves exploration and production links [134]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: From the production process, asphalt can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% of production and mostly used for road construction. By use, it is divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [138].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth in China's crude oil processing capacity, indicating a positive trend in the industry with a year-on-year increase in processing volume [1]. Industry Summary - As of September 2025, China's crude oil processing volume reached 62.69 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to September 2025, the total crude oil processing volume in China was 550.815 million tons, marking a cumulative increase of 3.7% [1]. Company Summary - The report mentions several listed companies in the oil sector, including Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Sinopec, PetroChina, Shanghai Petrochemical, Huajin Co., Taishan Petroleum, Yueyang Xingchang, ST Shihua, and Shenyang Chemical [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to experience weak and volatile price movements. The supply side will see a slight increase in the operating rate, while the demand side will remain weak. The impact of international events on crude oil prices and the cautious market attitude towards winter storage contracts also contribute to the market's uncertainty [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month-on-month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year-on-year. Next week, the operating rate will increase slightly as some refineries switch production and others resume production [1]. - Demand: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. Road asphalt construction was restricted by funds and weather, with the operating rate dropping by 5 percentage points to 29%. As the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the overall demand will remain weak [1]. - Inventory: The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week and is near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - International Events: The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. Although there are signs of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the possibility of a peace agreement in the near term is low, and crude oil prices are fluctuating at a low level. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area led to the shutdown of a 200,000-barrel/day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened under the US military threat [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.73% to 2,996 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 2,953 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,019 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 20,497 to 133,952 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 4 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing resumed asphalt production, and the operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years [4]. - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. From January to October, the fixed asset investment in road transportation decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [4]. - Social Financing: From January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 percentage point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than expected [4]. - Inventory: As of November 28, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years [4].

| X | | --- | | 11 | | --- | | 免责声明 | 能化板块研发报告 供需双弱持续 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 11 月上旬油价震荡维持，沥青成本端较 10 月初有所上升，在现货价 格经历大幅下跌后，炼厂利润回落至近五年同期偏低水平，沥青现货价格企 稳。油价宽幅波动过程中，沥青价格弹性明显偏弱，偏弱震荡。11 月下旬， 油价在过剩预期下承压下行，沥青成本端无上行驱动，原料贴水回落显著。 沥青供需继续走弱，月末供应大幅下降，需求同样降至历史同期低位水平， 低库存对现货价格存在一定支撑。 【市场展望】 短期油价大幅走弱，叠加原料贴水处于低位，沥青成本端支撑有限，但 还需关注美国与委内局势的发展。低供应和低库存对现货价格存在一定支 撑，沥青跌幅弱于原油，炼厂利润小幅回升，现货估值偏高，盘面预计窄幅 震荡。中期来看，市场对于明年的需求暂无乐观预期，等待冬储成本落地， 沥青波动率明显弱于原油，主力合约 BU2601 运行区间预计 2950~3100 元/吨。 【策略推荐】 1.单边：窄幅震荡。 2.套利：观望。 3.期权：BU2601 合约卖出虚值看涨期权。 风险提示：美国与委内局势的发展 ...

| | | | X | | --- | 能化板块研发报告 高硫弱势维持，低硫供应预期增长 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 11 月高硫燃料油市场价格进一步下跌，中东供应增长同时中美进料需 求支撑减弱。新加坡高硫现货贴水在多供应和低成交价下持续下行，11 月 下旬现货贴水下跌至-6 美金/吨，较 10 月末下行约 4 美金/吨；高硫裂解也 较 10 月末下行约 2.8 美金/桶至-8 美金/桶左右水平。 11 月低硫燃料油供应缺口预期驱动由强转弱。上旬 Al-Zour 装置停产 同时 Dangote 汽油装置回归同时南苏丹低硫重质原油出口也受阻，低硫供 应缺口预期增长。下旬，南苏丹低硫原料出口恢复迅速，同时 Dangote 炼 厂汽油装置检修提前至 12 月初且检修期延长，低硫供应缺口预期减弱，低 硫现货贴水回落至 0 值以下水平。 【市场展望】 【策略推荐】 1.单边：偏弱震荡，观望。 2.套利：低硫近月价差关注逢高反套机会。低硫裂解转弱，高硫裂解弱势震荡。 3.期权：无。 风险提示：制裁政策变化、原油配额下发节奏、低硫炼厂负荷变化。 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：吴晓蓉 邮 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of asphalt is expected to increase as some refineries will stabilize production, while the demand will weaken further with the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south. The market is cautious, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, hitting the lowest level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt scheduled production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month-on-month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year-on-year [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 34% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. The asphalt shipments in the Northeast increased significantly due to increased production and price cuts, and the national shipments increased 15.28% to 246,000 tons week-on-week, at a slightly below - average level [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years. Crude oil prices fell due to factors such as the non - impact of sanctions on Russian oil production and the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. A fire in Venezuela led to the shutdown of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened under US military threats [1]. - This week, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing will stably produce asphalt, and the asphalt operating rate will rise. With the temperature drop in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will weaken further. The project increments in the south are limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 1.41% to 3,007 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,003 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,040 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 2,170 to 154,449 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to - 7 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped producing asphalt. The asphalt operating rate dropped 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with that from January to August 2025 but remained negative. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 4.3%, a slight decline from - 2.7% from January to September 2025, still in a negative growth situation. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 0.1% from 1.1% from January to September 2025 [4]. - As of the week of November 21, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 34% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - As of the week of November 21, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% compared with the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The refinery utilization rate in the US accelerated its recovery. Although the refinery utilization rate continued to rise from the bottom to 92.3%, the processing volume increased by 211,000 barrels per day, and the crude oil production decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 1,381.4 million barrels per day, the net import of crude oil increased by 1.046 million barrels per day, leading to an accumulation of commercial crude oil inventories by 2.774 million barrels in the week ending November 21. After the refinery utilization rate rebounded, both gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, the apparent demand for gasoline rebounded, and the apparent demand for diesel declined. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased slightly, but the single - week data has limited indication [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog US Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Inventory Data - **Commercial Crude Oil Inventory**: Increased by 2.774 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 3.426 million barrels in the previous period [4][6]. - **Cushing Crude Oil Inventory**: Decreased by 68,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 698,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Strategic Petroleum Inventory**: Increased by 498,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 533,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Gasoline Inventory**: Increased by 2.513 million barrels, compared with an increase of 2.327 million barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Diesel Inventory**: Increased by 1.147 million barrels, compared with an increase of 171,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Jet Fuel Inventory**: Increased by 370,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 146,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Fuel Oil Inventory**: Decreased by 531,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 287,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Total Inventory of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (excluding SPR)**: Increased by 1.562 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 2.715 million barrels in the previous period [6]. US Crude Oil Production, Demand and Trade Data - **Crude Oil Production**: Decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 1,381.4 million barrels per day [4][6]. - **Refinery Crude Oil Processing Volume**: Increased by 211,000 barrels per day to 16.443 million barrels per day [4][6]. - **Apparent Demand for Refined Oil Products**: Increased to 20.24 million barrels per day from 20.157 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Apparent Demand for Gasoline**: Increased to 8.726 million barrels per day from 8.528 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Apparent Demand for Diesel**: Decreased to 3.362 million barrels per day from 3.882 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Crude Oil Import**: Increased to 6.436 million barrels per day from 5.95 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Crude Oil Export**: Decreased to 3.598 million barrels per day from 4.158 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Refinery Utilization Rate**: Increased to 92.3% from 90% in the previous period [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the futures price of asphalt will experience a weak and volatile trend. This is due to factors such as the expected increase in asphalt production, the weakening of subsequent demand, and the current neutral level of the asphalt basis in the Shandong region, which has led to a cautious market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month-on-month (a decline of 16.9%) and 27.4 million tons year-on-year (a decline of 11.0%). Refineries such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical have stopped asphalt production. This week, refineries like Shandong Shengxing will stably produce asphalt, and the asphalt production rate is expected to rise [1][4] - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of various downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 34% week-on-week, constrained by funds and weather. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and subsequent demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited, and overall demand is tepid [1] - Inventory: The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week and is near the lowest level in recent years. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 15.28% week-on-week to 246,000 tons, at a slightly below-average level [1] - Price: The price of crude oil has declined. The discount of diluted asphalt has widened under the US military threat to Venezuela. The basis of asphalt in the Shandong region is at a neutral level, and the market is cautious [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.56% to 3,043 yuan/ton, near the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,024 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,068 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1,513 to 152,279 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in the Shandong region dropped to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to -33 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. From January to October, the cumulative actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [4] - Social Financing: From January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]