Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, and remained flat year-on-year, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a continuous expansion for three months [1][2] - Food prices decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, contributing to a decline of approximately 0.21 percentage points in CPI, while other categories such as transportation, education, and healthcare saw increases [2][3] - The performance of CPI in July was better than seasonal expectations, driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods [2] Group 2: PPI Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was narrower than the previous month, marking the first contraction reduction since March [4] - The reduction in PPI was primarily observed in upstream industries, with significant improvements in coal, steel, and photovoltaic sectors, indicating a positive impact from anti-involution policies [4][5] - The anti-involution measures are beginning to show effects, leading to a stabilization and potential recovery in prices across various industries [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Short-term effects of anti-involution policies are expected to reshape supply-demand structures and enhance overall efficiency in the industrial chain, potentially leading to a reasonable price recovery [5] - The sustainability of price increases in the medium to long term remains uncertain, heavily dependent on policy execution and coordination across various sectors, including emerging industries like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [6] - The effectiveness of these policies in creating a virtuous cycle of improved corporate profitability and enhanced economic momentum hinges on the ability to stimulate domestic demand [6]

Core Insights - Suzhou has entered the "trillion club" with seven private enterprises achieving over 100 billion yuan in revenue, showcasing the vitality of its private economy [1][2] - The "2025 Suzhou Top 100 Private Enterprises" list reflects the robust growth of private enterprises in Suzhou, with total revenue reaching 37,457.36 billion yuan, a 6.82% increase from the previous year [2][3] - The private sector in Suzhou contributes significantly to the local economy, accounting for over 60% of tax revenue and 80% of urban employment [3][4] Group 1: Company Performance - Seven companies in Suzhou reported revenues exceeding 100 billion yuan, with Hengli Group leading at 871.52 billion yuan [2] - The revenue threshold for the list was set at 3.32 billion yuan, with an average revenue of 374.57 million yuan per company [2] - The total tax contribution from these enterprises was 90.71 billion yuan, averaging 9.07 million yuan per company [2] Group 2: Industry Distribution - The top companies span various sectors, including petroleum processing, electronics manufacturing, and internet services, indicating a diverse economic landscape [3] - Manufacturing firms dominate the list with 65 companies, highlighting Suzhou's strength in this sector [3] - The rise of internet and emerging industries reflects the successful economic transformation in Suzhou [3] Group 3: Economic Environment - Suzhou has improved its business environment, recognized as a top investment destination in China, and has received accolades from the World Bank and Forbes [4] - The city has focused on modern enterprise systems and enhancing core competitiveness, contributing to high-quality economic development [4] - Continuous policy support and a favorable business climate have attracted both domestic and international investments [4][8] Group 4: National Trends - Nationwide, the number of private enterprises with revenues exceeding 100 billion yuan has increased to 97, up from 56 in 2019, indicating a significant expansion [6][7] - The private sector's innovation capabilities have improved, with many companies leading in technology and industry upgrades [7] - Recent policies have aimed to bolster private enterprises, with notable growth in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to address "involution" in various sectors, highlighting the importance of policy coordination and market mechanisms [2][6][65] - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee outlines a higher-level and broader coverage for the "anti-involution" initiative, focusing on the integration of local governments, enterprises, and residents [2][65] - The article identifies a significant decline in revenue growth for "involution" industries, dropping from 28.5% in 2021 to -0.4% in 2024, while fixed costs remain rigid, leading to a drastic reduction in average net profit growth to -28.2% [20][19][66] Group 2 - "Involution" is primarily manifested through low-price competition, which compresses supply chain costs, with accounts payable turnover decreasing to 4.6% in 2024, down by 1 percentage point from 2021 [26][31][66] - The internal cost-cutting measures in "involution" industries include a significant reduction in sales expenses, projected at -9.7% for 2024, and a decrease in management expenses growth to 2.6% [31][66] - The profitability of "involution" industries remains under pressure, with a return on assets (ROA) of 2.9% in 2024, a decline of 2.7 percentage points from the 2021 peak, which may hinder long-term industry transformation and development [40][66] Group 3 - To resolve the "involution" dilemma, the focus should be on alleviating supply-demand contradictions and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, while also restructuring demand expansion dynamics [44][50][66] - Structural transformation can be driven by policy guidance, industry self-discipline, and market mechanisms, encouraging innovation and moving away from price competition [50][66] - Addressing structural unemployment during the transformation process by accelerating the development of the service sector is crucial, as recent trends show a decline in employment in key service industries [56][66]

Group 1: Overview of "Anti-Involution" Policy - The recent "anti-involution" initiative is characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger coordination among local governments, enterprises, and residents[2] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized "lawful governance of low-price disorderly competition" and "orderly exit of backward production capacity" as key directions for the "anti-involution" policy[2] - Revenue growth in "involution" industries dropped from 28.5% in 2021 to -0.4% in 2024, while fixed cost growth remained rigid at 12.3%[2] Group 2: Negative Feedback from Involution - Involution industries experienced a significant decline in average net profit growth to -28.2% in 2024, contrasting with a positive growth of 3.5% in non-involution industries[2] - The accounts payable turnover rate for involution industries decreased to 4.6% in 2024, indicating a shift in cost management strategies[3] - Sales expenses in involution industries fell by 9.7% in 2024, while management expenses grew at a slower rate of 2.6%[3] Group 3: Strategies to Address Involution - To resolve the "involution" dilemma, it is crucial to alleviate supply-demand contradictions and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity[5] - Structural transformation can be achieved through policy guidance, industry self-discipline, and market mechanisms to encourage supply innovation[5] - Accelerating the development of the service industry is essential to address structural unemployment issues during the transformation process[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive shift in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June, indicating a recovery in consumer demand and the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies [4][5][6] - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices [5][6][8] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest increase in nearly 14 months [8] Group 2 - In June, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, which is a larger drop compared to the previous month [2][11][14] - Factors contributing to the PPI decline include seasonal price drops in raw materials, increased green energy leading to lower energy prices, and downward pressure on prices in export-oriented industries due to global trade slowdowns [12][13][14] - Despite the PPI decline, some industries are experiencing price stabilization and recovery due to improved supply-demand relationships and supportive macroeconomic policies [14][15]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year after four months of negative growth, influenced by the recovery of industrial product prices [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high, indicating effective policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption [1][3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, which is an increase in the rate of decline by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] - The decline in PPI is attributed to seasonal price decreases in domestic raw material manufacturing, increased green electricity leading to lower energy prices, and price pressures in export-oriented industries [5][6] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - In the automotive sector, prices for both gasoline and new energy vehicle manufacturing increased by 0.5% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively, with year-on-year declines narrowing by 1.9 and 0.4 percentage points [1] - The photovoltaic equipment and electronic components manufacturing prices fell by 10.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points [1] - High-tech industries such as integrated circuit packaging and testing saw price increases of 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a growth in new production capacities and innovation [6] Group 4: Policy Implications - The government aims to balance the expansion of domestic demand with supply-side structural reforms to improve market price order and promote reasonable price recovery [7][8] - The effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, particularly those supporting the real estate sector, will significantly influence future industrial product price trends [6]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The global economic and political situation is complex, with factors such as geopolitical risks, trade policies, and central bank policies influencing the financial and commodity markets. - In the stock index market, it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" at low prices. - In the bond market, it is advisable to enter the market at low prices as interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. - In the precious metals market, a long - term bullish view on silver is maintained due to the expected easing of the Fed's policy. - In the metal market, different metals have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors. - In the energy and chemical market, most products are in a state of complex supply - demand and price fluctuations, and different trading strategies are recommended for different products. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Macro News**: Trump threatens to impose a 10% new tariff on BRICS countries; Changxin Storage starts the listing guidance; Guojin Securities' Hong Kong subsidiary prepares to apply for virtual asset trading licenses; the eurozone's July Sentix investor confidence index reaches a new high [2]. - **Futures Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH futures contracts [3]. - **Trading Logic**: Overseas, geopolitical risks in the Middle East decline, and the market risk appetite recovers. Domestically, economic data in May is stable, and policies are introduced to support the market. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" at low prices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index futures long at low prices, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined to varying degrees [5]. - **News**: China's foreign exchange reserves increased in June; Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries supporting BRICS' anti - US policies [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: Considering the economic data and policy support, it is expected that interest rates will decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market at low prices [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold rose 0.36%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.19%. COMEX gold rose 0.08%, and COMEX silver rose 0.17% [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The US fiscal and monetary policies are the core drivers of precious metal prices. It is expected that the Fed will ease its policy in the second half of the year, and a long - term bullish view on silver is maintained [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper fell 0.69%, and Shanghai copper closed at 79390 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: LME inventory increased, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose. In China, social inventory increased, and the spot premium changed. The copper price is under pressure of phased shock adjustment [10]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum fell 1.31%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20490 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Aluminum ingot inventory is expected to increase in July, which will resist the upward movement of aluminum prices. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [11]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index fell 1.41%, and LME zinc fell 50 to 2695.5 dollars/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Zinc ore supply is high, and the zinc price is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and the decline of the long - short structure [12][13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index fell 0.48%, and LME lead fell 19 to 2043.5 dollars/ton. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of recycled lead is tight. The lead price is relatively strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai nickel fell 1.41%, and LME nickel fell 0.85%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. The price difference between refined nickel and nickel iron is high, and it is recommended to go short at high prices [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai tin fell 1.40%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, and the terminal demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the LC2509 contract rose 0.60%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The lithium price has limited upward space, and it is recommended to pay attention to demand expectations and market atmosphere [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose 0.15%. - **Industry Situation**: The alumina production capacity is over - supplied. It is recommended to short at high prices, and pay attention to policy and production reduction risks [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless steel main contract fell 0.71%. - **Industry Situation**: It is in the consumption off - season, and the supply - demand excess pattern is difficult to reverse. The spot market is expected to be weak [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.78%. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are weak, and the price is affected by the aluminum price. The upper resistance is large [20][21]. Black Construction Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined. - **Industry Situation**: The export is under pressure due to the anti - dumping policy. The supply - demand situation of rebar and hot - rolled coil is different, and it is necessary to pay attention to policies, demand, and cost [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The iron ore main contract fell 0.20%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply and demand of iron ore are affected by multiple factors. The price is in a wide - range shock, and it is necessary to control risks [25][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The glass price rebounded, and the soda ash price was stable. - **Industry Situation**: Glass is affected by policies, and it is recommended to avoid short - selling. Soda ash has large inventory pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon fell 0.04%, and ferrosilicon was flat. - **Industry Situation**: The industry is over - supplied, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions and short at high prices for hedging positions [29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The industrial silicon main contract rose 0.81%. - **Industry Situation**: Supply is over - supplied, and demand is insufficient. The price is affected by market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policies [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU adjusted downward. - **Industry Situation**: The tire industry has a neutral start - up rate, and the inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to be long - term bullish in the second half of the year and neutral in the short - term [39][40]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all declined. - **Industry Situation**: The geopolitical risk is uncertain, and the market is in a long - short game. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 7 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract rose 13 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to short - long opportunities at low prices [45]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, and the futures price fell. - **Industry Situation**: The cost is sufficient, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate downward [46]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 14 yuan. - **Industry Situation**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [48][49]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 2 yuan. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are both expected to decline, and it is recommended to short at high prices [50]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract was flat. - **Industry Situation**: Supply is expected to decrease in July, and demand is slightly under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [51]. Para - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 12 yuan. - **Industry Situation**: The overhaul season is over, and it is expected to destock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [52]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell. - **Industry Situation**: The price is expected to fluctuate due to inventory and demand factors [53]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price fluctuated. - **Industry Situation**: The pig price may stop falling and rise slightly. The short - term long - position has space, but the medium - term needs to consider supply and hedging pressure [56]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The national egg price mostly declined. - **Industry Situation**: The egg price may be stable in some areas and decline in others. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term [57][58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybeans fell 2.75%, and domestic soybean meal spot fell. - **Industry Situation**: The soybean import cost is stable, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to trade policies [59][60]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Domestic oils and fats fluctuated. - **Industry Situation**: The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a shock [62][63]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated, and the spot price declined. - **Industry Situation**: Brazilian sugar exports increased, and the domestic sugar price may continue to decline [64]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. - **Industry Situation**: The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US negotiations [65].

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2025 is at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement but still within a downward trend [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.5%, showing continued expansion [1] - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggests increasing regulatory intensity to maintain ample liquidity and support key sectors [1] Manufacturing Sector - The production and new orders indices are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, reflecting a rise of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points [1] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points [1] - Price indices for major raw materials show a rebound, with purchasing and factory gate price indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, rising by 1.5 percentage points [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction business activity index is at 52.8%, up by 1.8 percentage points, indicating high activity in civil engineering [1] - The service sector business activity index is stable at 50.1%, with some industries experiencing high activity while others see a decline [1] - The business activity expectation index is in a high range, suggesting optimism among enterprises [1] Monetary Policy - The central bank announced a 300 billion MLF operation on June 25, with a net injection of 118 billion, marking four consecutive months of excess renewal [1] - The monetary policy is expected to expand domestic demand and stabilize growth in the second half of the year, with MLF likely to continue increasing [1] - The focus is on supporting private and small enterprises, revitalizing existing resources, and stabilizing the real estate market [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the core contradiction throughout the upstream, midstream, and downstream industries is the "structural gap during the new - old kinetic energy conversion period." In the first half of the year, the industry was affected by external uncertainties, with intensified internal differentiation, and overall prosperity relied on policy support. In the second half of the year, with the "two new" policies further boosting domestic demand and upgrading the industrial structure, the industry is expected to achieve a systematic leap from "quantity" to "quality" expansion [2][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - **Upstream Materials**: In H1 2025, raw material prices were under pressure due to weak demand and Sino - US trade conflicts, showing significant differentiation. In H2, the structural differentiation will continue. Enterprises should focus on capacity elimination, tariff negotiations, and climate risks [8]. - **Midstream Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, it presented a differentiated pattern of "traditional under pressure, high - tech doing well." In H2, policies will support both demand and supply - side reforms, and traditional manufacturing is expected to break through cost dilemmas through intelligent and digital transformation [8]. - **Downstream Consumption**: In H1 2025, it showed a "weak recovery" pattern. In H2, the consumption market will continue to be structurally differentiated, and the recovery highly depends on policy implementation efficiency and business model innovation [9][10]. Upstream: Raw Material Price Fluctuations - **H1 2025 Situation**: Raw material prices were under pressure. Metal mining showed a divergence between black and non - ferrous metals; chemical raw materials had multi - directional fluctuations; energy sources like crude oil and coal were more differentiated; most agricultural products were at near - five - year lows [8][15]. - **H2 2025 Outlook**: The price differentiation will continue. Traditional raw materials' rebound depends on supply - side reforms and policy support, while emerging demand - driven products are more resilient. Enterprises should focus on capacity elimination, tariff reviews, and extreme weather [15][16]. Midstream: Short - term Stabilization, Continued New - Old Kinetic Energy Conversion - **Overall Situation**: In H1 2025, the manufacturing industry was affected by external factors, with traditional manufacturing under pressure and high - tech manufacturing supported by policies. After the tariff war, there was short - term stabilization, and both external and internal demands recovered to some extent [43][53]. - **Traditional Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, profits declined due to over - capacity and weak demand. In H2, policies will expand to more traditional manufacturing sectors, promoting transformation and efficiency improvement [59][75]. - **High - tech Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, it recovered significantly compared to the beginning of the year, benefiting from strong policy support. In H2, it is expected to continue to improve [69][75]. Downstream: Intensified Retail Differentiation, Weak Real Estate Recovery - **Retail Industry**: In H1 2025, online e - commerce grew due to the "trade - in" policy, while traditional physical retail was under pressure. In H2, the differentiation will continue, with emerging formats having growth potential and traditional retail relying on policy and innovation [82][93]. - **Leasing Industry**: In H1 2025, it was in a downturn. In H2, the "price - for - volume" trend will continue, and the de - stocking of commercial land will continue [92][93]. - **Real Estate Industry**: In H1 2025, it achieved "weak stabilization" under policy support. In H2, it is expected to continue to recover slowly with further policy optimization and improved supply - demand balance [99][115].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. For example, the stock index is strong due to the improved macro - situation, while the bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw and capital interest rates. Precious metals are influenced by geopolitical events and Fed's attitude towards interest rates. Different commodities in the futures market also have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][6][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, A - shares opened higher and rose throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.68%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.30%. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose with the index, but the basis was deeply discounted [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, important meetings were held, and a grand celebration for the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was announced. Overseas, Trump criticized the Fed's interest - rate policy, and Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [3][4]. - **Funding**: On June 24, A - share trading volume increased significantly. The central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 2092 billion yuan [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the current basis rate of the main contracts, with relatively stable support below the index and the need for a driving force for upward breakthrough, it is recommended to try a covered combination strategy on the CSI 1000 variety [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose [6]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse repurchase operation volume increased, and MLF was incrementally renewed. The market sentiment was relatively stable, and the end - of - quarter capital fluctuations were expected to be controllable [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Although the bond market is under short - term pressure, the overall pattern may remain strong. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, pay attention to economic data and capital trends, and consider positive arbitrage and curve - steepening strategies [8][9]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Due to the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the risk - aversion sentiment subsided, and Fed Chairman Powell was cautious about interest - rate cuts. Precious metals tumbled during the session but recovered some losses at the end of the session [10][13]. - **Future Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend, but in the short term, it lacks a clear driving force and faces risks. Silver is supported by factors such as the recovery of the photovoltaic and semiconductor industries, but the upward drive is weakened. It is recommended to continue selling out - of - the - money call options on gold and try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money options on silver [13][14]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of June 24, shipping companies' prices varied. The SCFIS and SCFI indices showed different trends [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the PMI data of major economies reflected the demand situation [15]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to closely observe the shipping company's quotes in late July [16]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of electrolytic copper increased slightly, but the premium decreased, and the overall trading was average [17]. - **Macro**: The COMEX - LME premium is controversial, and the Fed's economic outlook is moving towards "stagflation", which restricts the upward and downward space of copper prices [18][21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, the production of refined copper increases, and the "rush - to - export" demand continues, but it may overdraw future demand. The inventory situation is complex, with COMEX inventory accumulating and domestic inventory slightly decreasing [19][20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77000 - 80000 [21]. Alumina - **Spot**: On June 24, the spot price of alumina in various regions decreased [21][22]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production increased in May, and the inventory situation is complex. The market is in a state of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [22][23]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is stable, the downstream start - up rate is under pressure, and the inventory decline rate slows down. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level [24][25]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On June 24, the spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of the recycled aluminum alloy market are both weak, but the demand side is more prominent. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [26][27]. Zinc - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of zinc ingots increased, but the market trading was dull [27]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, the demand is weakening, and the low inventory provides support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 21000 - 21500 [28][30]. Tin - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of tin increased, but the trading was cold. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies [30][31][33]. Nickel - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of electrolytic nickel decreased [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in a range [34][35]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of stainless steel decreased [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to be weak and run in a range [37][39]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading did not improve significantly [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is relatively high, the demand is stable but difficult to boost in the off - peak season, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to be weak and run in a range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41][43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price is stable, and the basis has weakened. The price is expected to weaken again in the off - peak season, and it is recommended to try short positions or sell out - of - the - money call options [44][45][46]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of mainstream iron ore powder has changed slightly, and the futures price has fluctuated. The demand for iron water is high, but there is a risk of weakening in the off - peak season. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in the range of 670 - 720 [47][48]. Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is weakly stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply is affected by environmental protection and other factors, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to short - term buy on dips and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [49][52]. Coke - **Spot and Futures**: The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and the price is close to the bottom. The supply is tightening marginally, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [53][56]. Ferrosilicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply increases slightly, the demand has some changes, and the cost is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to short on rallies [57][58]. Manganese Silicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply increases slightly, the demand has some changes, and the cost is difficult to stabilize. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to short on rallies [60][62].