Assets Allocation in March 2026: Balanced Portfolio Amid Disturbance 3 月资产配置月报：扰动下的均衡配置 | 姜 | 婧 | Jiang Jing | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F3018552 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0013315 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王含章 | | Wang Hanzhang | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03121254 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0022985 | | 仲 | 鼎 | Zhong Ding | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03107932 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0021450 | | 张皓云 | | Zhang haoyun | 从业资格号 Qualification No .: F03114820 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0022427 | | 朱善颖 | | Zhu S ...

文字早评 2026/03/04 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美股恐慌指数 VIX 最新上涨 24%，报 26.6 点； 2、欧洲天然气价格涨幅进一步扩大至 40%，报 62.5 欧元/兆瓦时，2 日涨超 100%； 3、美国国务院连发 6 条撤离令，要求在约旦、巴林、伊拉克、科威特、卡塔尔、阿联酋的非必要政府 人员撤离； 4、全球 AI 应用月活榜前五分别为 ChatGPT、豆包、千问、夸克、DeepSeek，千问增速高达 552%。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：1.80%/2.68%/5.23%/5.05%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：3.46%/6.10%/8.67%/7.14%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：2.98%/4.96%/11.71%/9.46%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-2.92%/-0.53%/0.67%/2.82%。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，油价持续上涨、美联储降息预期减弱，美债收益率快速攀升，建议 关注国内两会政策信号以及战局转变，注意控制风险。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周二，TL 主力合约收于 112.770 ...

广西盛隆钢铁材料研究院有限公司，成立于2022年，位于防城港市，是一家以从事科技推广和应用服务 业为主的企业。企业注册资本510万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，广西盛隆钢铁材料研究院有限公 司专利信息219条。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 国家知识产权局信息显示，广西广盛新材料科技有限公司取得一项名为"金属板材的加工方法、装置、 终端设备及存储介质"的专利，授权公告号CN116713694B，申请日期为2023年5月。 天眼查资料显示，广西广盛新材料科技有限公司，成立于2020年，位于防城港市，是一家以从事科技推 广和应用服务业为主的企业。企业注册资本10000万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，广西广盛新材料 科技有限公司参与招投标项目69次，专利信息89条，此外企业还拥有行政许可70个。 广西盛隆冶金有限公司，成立于2003年，位于防城港市，是一家以从事黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业为主 的企业。企业注册资本300000万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，广西盛隆冶金有限公司共对外投资了 30家企业，参与招投标项目2264次，财产线索方面有 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The global macro - market last week was affected by multiple variables. The reconstruction of global liquidity expectations, policy and event disturbances in core economies, and the intensification of monetary policy differentiation were the core logics. Four major variables, including the Japanese election, weak US employment, China's pro - growth policies, and Australia's interest rate hike, dominated the market game, leading to high volatility in multiple sectors [2] - Short - term market trends will be verified by a series of events such as the Japanese election results, US key economic data, and China's inflation and consumption performance. The long - term trend is related to the US AI strategy, China's industrial and investment development, global key raw material strategic reserve logic, and the background of persistent differential inflation and monetary policies [2] Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - In the Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats. The Bank of Canada Governor said that if Canada loses preferential trade access to the US through the USMCA, its economy may fall into recession, but this is not the central bank's baseline scenario. The Japanese Finance Minister said it's not easy to use foreign exchange reserves for tax cuts and spending, and the Japanese Prime Minister will consider reducing the consumption tax [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB appreciated against the US dollar in the previous trading day. The RMB's short - term movement against the US dollar is affected by seasonal settlement demand and the US dollar index. Exporters are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and importers can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 6.93 [3][4] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated and adjusted last trading day. Short - term (before the Spring Festival), it is expected to remain volatile, and large - cap stock indices may be relatively dominant. Attention should be paid to the release of US non - farm payroll data and domestic CPI data [5] Treasury Bonds - Last week, bond futures rose overall. Whether the bond market can continue to rise this week depends on whether trading sentiment can be maintained. It is recommended to shift mid - line long positions during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high prices [6] Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate futures prices fell sharply. Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment is over, and it is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday. High volatility in the lithium carbonate futures market presents an opportunity to sell volatility [9] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand. In February, production schedules will decline, and inventory reduction is the main task. Industrial silicon prices may continue to decline [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a support level of 23000 - 23500. It is recommended to build long positions or sell options at the support level. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, but there are short - term disturbances. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum, and attention can be paid to its price difference with aluminum [15][16] Copper - Copper prices had high volatility last week. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to focus on short - term range operations and be cautious about chasing up or selling down [19] Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's employment data, as weak data may support prices [20] Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel - stainless steel had a deep correction this week, mainly affected by the overall market and macro - level sentiment. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the quota release rhythm and Indonesian downstream layout [20][21] Tin - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to this week's US employment and CPI data. Weak data may support non - ferrous metal prices [23] Lead - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lack of upward drive before the Spring Festival [23] Oils and Fats, and Feeds Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is strong, while the domestic market is weak. It is recommended to lightly try long positions, but the upside is limited [24][25] Oils and Fats - Before the Spring Festival, funds flowed out of the oils and fats market, which is expected to be weakly volatile. It is not recommended to short, and selling put options can be considered [26] Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is operating weakly. Although the supply shortage has been alleviated, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to geopolitical uncertainties [28] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory decline has a slight positive impact on the cracking spread [29][30] Asphalt - Asphalt's upward trend is weak. Before the Spring Festival, demand drops to zero. The future trend will follow the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and inventory pressure after the Spring Festival [30][31] Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuated sharply. In the long - term, the bull market foundation remains. High volatility requires attention to position control [33][35] Gold & Silver - Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply last week. In the short - term, operation is difficult, but the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips in installments and control positions. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [36][39] Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - Pulp futures prices are expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to partially close short positions, conduct short - term range trading, or lightly try short - term long - buying strategies. Offset paper futures can return to range trading [41][42] LPG - LPG prices are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral, and the demand from PDH is low. Attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [43][44] PTA - PX - PX - PTA's valuation is returning to the fundamentals. PX is in short supply in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. PTA's high processing fees are difficult to maintain, and it is recommended to shrink the processing fees on the disk [45][48] MEG - Bottle Chips - Ethylene glycol's demand weakens seasonally. The supply - demand balance improves in the first half of the year. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [49][50] Methanol - It is recommended to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival. Methanol prices follow geopolitical and non - ferrous metal trends, and the trading is difficult [51][53] Plastic PP - Polyolefin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and cost. PE shows a trend of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and PP shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - atmosphere changes and the Iran - US conflict [54][55] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene's supply increases and demand is flat. Styrene's supply will increase in February, and demand will decline during the Spring Festival. Short - term geopolitical factors and exports support prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56][57] Urea - Urea is in a stage of over - supply. The 05 contract has an expected price increase, but the short - term price may correct. It is recommended to close long positions and hold an empty position during the Spring Festival [58][59] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is oscillating weakly, and the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term. Glass has a weak supply - demand pattern and is at risk of high intermediate inventory [60][63] Propylene - Propylene prices are affected by cost, supply and demand, and market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals provide some support, but attention should be paid to risks [63][64] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil - Rebar's inventory is accumulating, and hot - rolled coil's inventory is changing from decreasing to increasing. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to whether they break through the lower limit of the oscillation range [65][67] Iron Ore - The supply and demand of iron ore are both weak. The port inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously before the Spring Festival [68] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply is seasonally shrinking, and coke's supply and demand are both recovering. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills [69][70] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern between cost support and downstream inventory pressure. Ferrosilicon's fundamentals are slightly better [71] Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig market is operating weakly. It is recommended to short the 03 contract and long the 05 contract in terms of the spread strategy [73][74] Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by macro - sentiment. The domestic cotton price is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and new orders [75][76] Sugar - The domestic sugar demand is average, and the international raw sugar price is weak, dragging down the domestic sugar price. The upside space is limited [77][78] Eggs - The pre - holiday stocking demand for eggs has ended. It is recommended to sell the JD2603 - C - 3100 call option [79][80] Apples - Apple's pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. The consumption peak logic is almost realized. The price is supported by delivery contradictions and is likely to rise rather than fall [81][82] Red Dates - Red dates' pre - holiday purchase and sales are slowing down. In the short - term, the price may remain low - oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure [83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on February 3, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: From January 27 to February 2, 2026, the basis of power coal was - 116.4 on January 27, - 111.4 on January 28, and - 109.4 from January 29 to February 2 [2]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 during the period from January 27 to February 2, 2026 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis**: For fuel oil, the basis on February 2, 2026 was 127.38; for INE crude oil, the basis on February 2, 2026 was - 3.68; for crude oil/asphalt, the basis on February 2, 2026 was 0.1392 [7]. - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio of some energy commodities was also provided, such as 99.68 for a certain ratio on February 2, 2026 [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period spreads**: For rubber, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread was - 485, the 9 - month minus 1 - month spread was - 625, and the 9 - month minus 5 - month spread was - 140; for methanol, the corresponding spreads were - 64, - 45, and 19; for PTA, they were 40, 38, and - 2; for LLDPE, they were - 35, 3, and 38; for PVC, they were - 218, - 101, and 117; for PP, they were 46, 72, and 26; for ethylene glycol, they were - 167, - 76, and 91 [9]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: For example, on February 2, 2026, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1889, the LLDPE - PP spread was 171, the PP - PVC spread was 1718, and the PP - 3*methanol spread was - 93 [9]. - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of rubber was - 80, methanol was - 4.5, PTA was - 72, LLDPE was 122, PVC was - 254, and PP was 76 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: For rebar, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread was - 82, the 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month spread was - 33, and the 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month spread was 49; for iron ore, the corresponding spreads were 29, 12, and - 17; for coke, they were - 149, - 82, and 67; for coking coal, they were - 248.5, - 172, and 76.5 [19]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: On February 2, 2026, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.96, the rebar/coke ratio was 18132.1, the coke/coking coal ratio was 4690, and the rebar - hot - rolled coil spread was - 161 [19]. - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of rebar was 112, iron ore was 4, coke was - 175.5, and coking coal was 38.5 [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of copper was 1460, aluminum was 635, zinc was 455, lead was - 70, nickel was 10760, and tin was 850 [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Ascending/Descending Premium**: On February 2, 2026, the LME ascending/descending premium of copper was (59.17), aluminum was (22.32), zinc was (5.35), lead was (47.99), nickel was (218.73), and tin was (300.00) [34]. - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: On February 2, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of copper was 7.83, aluminum was 7.73, zinc was 7.53, lead was 8.49, nickel was 7.85, and tin was 8.16 [34]. - **CIF**: On February 2, 2026, the CIF of copper was 101532.75, aluminum was 25597.59, zinc was 27517.86, lead was 15764.97, nickel was 136168.76, and tin was 375735.34 [34]. - **Domestic Spot Price**: On February 2, 2026, the domestic spot price of copper was 101060, aluminum was 23680, zinc was 24970, lead was 16640, nickel was 140410, and tin was 392480 [34]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: On February 2, 2026, the import profit and loss of copper was (472.75), aluminum was (1917.59), zinc was (2547.86), lead was 875.03, nickel was 4241.24, and tin was 16744.66 [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 233, soybeans No.2 was 96.22, soybean meal was 350, soybean oil was 578, and corn was 49 [38]. - **Inter - period spreads**: For example, for soybeans No.1, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread was - 28, the 9 - month minus 1 - month spread was 5, and the 9 - month minus 5 - month spread was 33 [38]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: On February 2, 2026, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.93, the soybeans No.2/corn ratio was 1.55, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.97, the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 477, the soybean oil - palm oil spread was - 944, the rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread was 1082, and the corn - corn starch spread was - 249 [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of CSI 300 was - 20.84, SSE 50 was 133.85, CSI 500 was - 19.49, and CSI 1000 was - 5.74 [50]. - **Inter - period spreads**: For CSI 300, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 46.2, and the next - quarter minus current - quarter spread was - 1.2; for SSE 50, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 24.8, and the next - quarter minus current - quarter spread was - 10.6; for CSI 500, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 35.2, and the next - quarter minus current - quarter spread was - 145.6; for CSI 1000, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 38.8, and the next - quarter minus current - quarter spread was - 104.2 [50].

Core Insights - China's total electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2025, reaching 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, which is unprecedented for a single country globally [1][6] - This milestone reflects China's robust economic resilience and profound transformation, with the total electricity consumption doubling from 5 trillion kilowatt-hours in just over a decade [1][3] Economic and Structural Drivers - The growth in electricity consumption is supported by a stable macroeconomic foundation and increased demand due to high temperatures and the rising electrification of daily life, including household appliances and electric vehicles [1][3] - High-end manufacturing sectors, such as new energy vehicles and wind power equipment manufacturing, are expected to see electricity consumption growth rates exceeding 20% and 30%, respectively, becoming key drivers of this growth [3] Emerging Industries - The rapid development of the digital economy is evident, with the internet services and charging industries experiencing electricity consumption growth rates of over 30% and nearly 50%, respectively, indicating a shift towards high-tech and high-value-added economic activities [3][4] - The contrast between the rising electricity consumption in high-tech industries and the declining growth in high-energy-consuming sectors, such as black metal smelting, highlights China's structural adjustments and transformation efforts [4] Power Supply and Stability - Ensuring the safe and stable supply of 10 trillion kilowatt-hours is a significant achievement, supported by a modern power supply system that coordinates efforts across power generation, grid management, and demand-side management [3][4] - Coal power continues to play a stabilizing role, while renewable energy sources like wind and solar are becoming the main contributors to incremental growth, complemented by energy storage solutions [3] Conclusion - The unprecedented figure of 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours not only demonstrates China's strength as a global manufacturing powerhouse but also showcases its progress towards high-quality development and the establishment of a new power system [6] - This data reflects the vigorous pace of industrial structure upgrades, the commitment to green and low-carbon transitions, and the strong resilience of the Chinese economy in a complex environment [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly consists of various commodity futures data. Summary by Commodity Categories 1. Power Coal - Provided power coal basis data from January 7 - 14, 2026, with the basis on January 13 being -100 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Presented basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 7 - 13, 2026, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt [7] Chemical Commodities - Showed cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol from January 7 - 13, 2026 [9][10] 3. Black Metals - Provided cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 7 - 13, 2026 [19][20][21] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Presented domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 7 - 13, 2026 [30] London Market - Showed LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals on January 13, 2026 [33] 5. Agricultural Products - Provided basis, cross - period, and cross - variety data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, sugar, and cotton from January 7 - 13, 2026 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - Presented basis and cross - period data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 7 - 13, 2026 [49][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - policies. Different industries show different trends, with some expected to be strong in the short - term, some in a state of shock, and others facing downward pressure [2][3][4] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical events, and investors need to pay attention to the follow - up impact of these events on different industries [2][13][15] Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Nickel**: The supply - side contraction expectation and geopolitical risks drive the nickel price to be strong. It is expected to operate in the range of 142,000 - 152,000, with attention to the breakthrough around 150,000 [2][40] - **Methanol**: The port price is strong, and the market is expected to maintain a strong shock pattern. The 05 contract is recommended to buy at a low price in the range of 2,100 - 2,350 [3][111] - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the expectation of steel mill replenishment, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference range of 770 - 840 [4][59] - **Pig**: After the festival, the demand declines. The disk is affected by capital sentiment, but the upside space is limited [5][79] - **Silver**: The tight inventory boosts the price. It is recommended to maintain a light - position and low - buying strategy [6][17] Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market is on the rise, and the four major stock index futures contracts are all rising. It is recommended to hold a bullish spread portfolio and build a covered call portfolio on dips [7][8][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is under pressure due to the strong performance of the equity market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the positive arbitrage in the spot - futures strategy, and tend to steepen the curve [10][11][12] Precious Metals - The geopolitical risks and supply tightness drive the prices of precious metals to rise. Gold is recommended to hold long positions above $4,300. Silver is recommended to maintain a light - position and low - buying strategy. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term and are recommended to be lightly long on dips [13][15][17] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price hits a new high. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price may be overestimated. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and pay attention to the support at 99,000 - 100,000 [18][21][22] - **Alumina**: The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is volatile. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term, with a reference range of 2,700 - 3,000 [22][24] - **Aluminum**: The price hits a new high. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock, with a reference range of 23,800 - 24,800. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and long positions can be established on dips [24][26][27] - **Zinc**: The price center moves up. It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference support at 23,300 - 23,400. Long positions can be held, and cross - market reverse arbitrage can be continued [30][33] - **Tin**: Affected by news and sentiment, the price is expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [34][38] - **Nickel**: The supply - side contraction expectation and geopolitical risks drive the price to be strong. It is expected to operate in the range of 142,000 - 152,000 [2][38][40] - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by raw material tightening expectations, the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,200 [41][44] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is rising strongly. It is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there are risks of liquidity and regulation. It is recommended to wait and see and convert long positions to call options appropriately [45][49][50] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rises and then falls. It is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [50][52] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is in a low - level shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [52][55] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The night - session raw materials drive the steel price to rise. It is expected to fluctuate upward in the range, with a reference range of 3,000 - 3,200 for rebar and 3,150 - 3,350 for hot - rolled coils [55][56] - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the expectation of steel mill replenishment. It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference range of 770 - 840 [4][58][59] - **Coking Coal**: The price is weak in the spot market. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [60][63] - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts is implemented. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [64][68] - **Silicon Iron**: Affected by the policy, the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a reference range of 5,500 - 6,000 [69][71] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is supported by manganese ore. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 6,000 [72][74] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The global loose pattern and South American bumper harvest expectations suppress the market. The domestic spot is loose. It is expected to be strong in the short - term [75][76][77] - **Pig**: After the festival, the demand declines. The disk is affected by capital sentiment, but the upside space is limited [5][78][79] - **Corn**: There is a game between short - selling and policy support. The price is expected to fluctuate [80][81] - **Sugar**: The international market is affected by Brazil and India. The domestic market is affected by the peak season of sugar production. It is expected to be in a low - level shock [83][84] - **Cotton**: The US cotton is expected to be in a shock. The domestic cotton is expected to be strong in the short - term [85] - **Egg**: The supply pressure is relieved. The price is expected to be in a low - level shock [88] - **Oil**: The palm oil may face downward pressure. The soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to have limited upside [89][90][91] - **Jujube**: The price is stable, but the trading volume is poor. It is necessary to pay attention to the Spring Festival stocking and the planting area in 2026 [92] - **Apple**: The good - quality fruit is scarce, driving the price up. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual de - stocking progress [93][94] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a shock in the short - term and go long at a low price in the medium - term [95][96] - **PTA**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. It is expected to be in a shock in the short - term and go long at a low price in the medium - term [97][98] - **Short - fiber**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to follow the raw materials to fluctuate [99][100] - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand are expected to decrease. It is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate, and the processing fee has limited upside space [101][102] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure in January [103][104] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply is stable, and the demand is slightly improved. The price is under pressure due to high inventory [106] - **Styrene**: The short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future. The price rebound space is limited [107][108] - **LLDPE**: The market is covering short positions. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short - term [109] - **PP**: The supply and demand are weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the PDH profit expansion [110] - **Methanol**: The port price is strong. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract at a low price in the range of 2,100 - 2,350 [3][111] - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price rebounds, and the spot price is stable. The market is expected to be stable and weak [111][113] - **PVC**: The price rises, but the supply - demand pattern is weak. It is expected to decline in a shock [114] - **Urea**: The Indian tender result boosts the market. It is expected to be strong in a shock in the short - term [115] - **Soda Ash**: The macro - environment drives the price to rebound, but the supply - demand pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait and see [117][118][119] - **Glass**: The macro - environment drives the price to rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to the sales and production sustainability. It is recommended to wait and see [117][119] - **Natural Rubber**: The market sentiment drives the price up. It is recommended to wait and see [120][121] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited. The BR contract is expected to be strong in the short - term, and it is not recommended to short [121][123]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market last week was characterized by the strong rise of non - ferrous metals and the accelerated appreciation of the RMB. There are risks of correction in non - ferrous metals and uncertainties in the long - term appreciation of the RMB [2]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but there is pressure to continue rising; the bond market is not pessimistic in the medium term, and short - term trading should maintain a band - trading idea [5][7][8]. - The SCFI European line has a complex market situation with both positive and negative factors, and there are uncertainties in the future trend [9][10][12]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, platinum and palladium have high - level volatility, and there are opportunities for long - term price increases but short - term risks; gold and silver are still strong, but silver has high price risks; copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, etc. have different price trends and influencing factors [14][19][21]. - In the black market, steel prices are expected to be volatile, iron ore is neutral with price support and pressure, and the situation of coking coal and coke depends on factors such as production resumption [33][34][36]. - In the energy and chemical market, the oil price is in a low - level shock, and the performance of various chemical products such as LPG, PTA - PX, MEG - bottle chips, etc. is affected by factors such as supply and demand and macro - policies [44][45][48]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply and demand of live pigs need to be verified, the performance of oilseeds, oils, cotton, sugar, etc. is affected by factors such as supply and demand relationship and policy [82][83][86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The market is influenced by factors such as the two - main - line characteristics of non - ferrous metals and RMB appreciation, and there are risks in the short - term rise of non - ferrous metals and uncertainties in the long - term appreciation of the RMB [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: There is a discussion about the long - term appreciation of the RMB, but there are limitations in applying relevant theories. The narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate differential is the core trigger for appreciation, and there are potential risks [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but there is pressure to continue rising, and it is necessary to pay attention to the breakthrough of the index [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is not pessimistic in the medium term, and short - term trading should maintain a band - trading idea [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The SCFI European line has a complex market situation with both positive and negative factors, and there are uncertainties in the future trend [9][10][12]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: There is high - level volatility, and the long - term price is expected to rise, but there are short - term risks. Attention should be paid to factors such as policy adjustments and market supply and demand [14][15][17]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are still strong, but silver has high price risks, and short - term trading should be cautious [19][20]. - **Copper**: The price is affected by the game between industrial and speculative funds, and there are risks in trading around the New Year [21][23]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina has an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [24][25]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [26][27]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and there is limited upward space in the short term [27]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is a risk of short - term callback, but there are opportunities to build long positions in the medium and long term [28][29]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited short - term improvement in fundamentals, and polysilicon is in a shock state. Attention should be paid to technical aspects [30][31]. - **Lead**: It is expected to be in a shock range [32]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are expected to be volatile, with support from the cost side and pressure from demand [33][34]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are neutral, with price support from steel mill replenishment demand and pressure from high supply [35][36]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The future trend depends on factors such as the resumption of domestic mines and the production of iron and steel enterprises [37][38]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited [39][40]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp market is neutral, and the offset paper market has a slight increase in valuation. Attention should be paid to downstream demand [42][44]. - **Crude Oil**: The core contradiction is the game between short - term geopolitical risk premiums and weak fundamentals, and it is in a low - level shock [45]. - **LPG**: The near - term is supported, and the future is under pressure. Attention should be paid to marginal changes [46][47]. - **PTA - PX**: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. PX has a good supply - demand pattern, but there is a risk of callback [48][51]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand side is weak, and the valuation is under pressure. The market is expected to be affected by macro - narratives [53][54]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to buy at a low level [55][56]. - **PP**: It is expected to be in a shock pattern, and the focus is on the scale of device maintenance in January [58][59]. - **PE**: It is expected to be in a bottom - shock pattern, and the upward space is limited [61][62]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: They have rebounded at a low level, but it is not recommended to chase high prices [63][64]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil has a weak cracking situation, and low - sulfur fuel oil has limited cracking drive. Both are recommended to wait and see [65][67]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern, and different rubber varieties have different trading strategies [68][70]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to try to buy the far - month contract [71][72]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda & Glass**: Soda ash has an oversupply expectation; glass has high inventory and low - season pressure; caustic soda is in a weak state and is expected to be in a wide - range shock [73][74][76]. - **Log**: It can be considered to use an option double - selling strategy [78][79]. - **Propylene**: It is necessary to pay attention to marginal changes, and the price is expected to be in a low - level shock [80][81]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply and demand in the peak season need to be verified. The short - term is based on fundamentals, and the long - term can be bullish [82]. - **Oilseeds**: The short - term is affected by weak reality, but there are opportunities for phased rebounds [83][84]. - **Oils**: They are expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term, and palm oil is relatively strong [86]. - **Cotton**: There is a risk of short - term callback, but there is upward space in the long term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and policy changes [87][88]. - **Sugar**: There is pressure for the price to rise further in the short term [89]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and short - term trading should be cautious [90]. - **Apples**: There is pressure on the disk due to the slowdown in consumption, and there are opportunities to build long positions after a pullback [91][92]. - **Red Dates**: They are expected to be in a low - level shock in the short term, and the long - term price is under pressure [93].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in the Chinese economy, highlighting its causes, impacts, and policy responses, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to promote high-quality economic development [3][4][5]. Group 1: Causes and Impacts of Involution - The current "involution" is characterized by long-term negative growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and low capacity utilization rates in mid- and downstream industries, which squeeze corporate profits and hinder industrial upgrades [3][4][5]. - The deep-rooted causes of this "involution" include the differentiation of old and new economic drivers during the economic transition period and the homogeneous and disorderly competition among local governments pursuing GDP and fiscal revenue [4][5][11]. - The "involution" phenomenon has created a spiral contraction cycle of "price-income-consumption," severely restricting healthy economic development and transformation [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Responses - Successful containment of "involution" is essential not only for stabilizing short-term economic growth but also for transitioning China's economy from factor-driven to innovation-driven, achieving high-quality development [5][6]. - Policy measures should focus on coordinated efforts from both supply and demand sides, combining growth stabilization with reform promotion [5][6]. - On the supply side, strategies include production adjustment, elimination of outdated capacity, and optimizing industrial structure to enhance product quality [5][6]. - On the demand side, there is a need to vigorously develop resident service consumption, release consumption potential through fiscal subsidies and social security improvements, and guide employment from manufacturing to services [5][6]. Group 3: Evolution of Anti-Involution Policies - Since mid-2024, high-level meetings have continuously addressed the need to combat "involution," with a clear policy commitment to prevent "malicious competition" [6][10]. - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the establishment of a unified national market and the need to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation [7][10]. - The current anti-involution policies are characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger synergy compared to previous supply-side reforms [10][11]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Background and Industry Characteristics - The macroeconomic environment is under pressure from continuously declining prices, with the PPI experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months, and industrial capacity utilization rates at historical lows [15][18]. - The profitability of industrial enterprises is under significant pressure, with many industries experiencing negative profit growth, particularly in mid- and downstream sectors [18][21]. - The phenomenon of "involution" is more complex and diverse compared to 2015, with competition shifting from traditional sectors to new areas, leading to lower capacity utilization rates in high-demand sectors [23][24]. Group 5: Recommendations and Future Directions - The article suggests that lessons from international experiences, such as industry consolidation and market clearing, could be beneficial in addressing the challenges posed by "involution" [31][32]. - It emphasizes the importance of combining total quantity policies with structural policies to effectively address the "involution" dilemma [34][37]. - Long-term strategies should focus on accelerating the development of the service sector to adapt to changing consumer preferences and demographic trends, thereby addressing the structural unemployment issues arising from the transition [38][40].