Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Morning Report - Report Date: December 18, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the report Summary by Category Price - **Silicon Iron**: The latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron natural block is 5120 yuan, with a daily change of -30 yuan and a weekly change of 20 yuan; the main contract price is 5546 yuan, with a daily change of 64 yuan and a weekly change of 112 yuan [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese is 5540 yuan, with a daily change of 0 yuan and a weekly change of 20 yuan; the main contract price is 5758 yuan, with a daily change of 22 yuan and a weekly change of 34 yuan [2]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and their weekly production (with a capacity share of 95%) is also shown [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly production of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is provided [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The demand - related data includes the estimated production of crude steel in China (monthly, in ten - thousand tons), the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China (monthly, in ten - thousand tons), etc. [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand - side data shows the demand for silicon manganese in China (in ten - thousand tons, according to Steel Union's statistics), and the estimated production of crude steel in China (monthly, in ten - thousand tons) [4][7]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, including those in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, are given, as well as the daily data of CZCE silicon iron warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, etc. [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The daily data of CZCE silicon manganese warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the weekly inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China are presented [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - related data includes the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, and the market price of semi - coke small materials in Shaanxi. The profit data includes the production profit of semi - coke in China, the export profit of 75 - grade silicon iron, etc. [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The cost - related data involves the ex - factory price of chemical coke in Ordos, and the summary prices of various manganese ores. The profit data includes the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, etc. [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products oscillated at the bottom. The supply - demand structure of rebar was relatively balanced, while hot - rolled coils faced inventory pressure. Steel prices are expected to maintain bottom - range oscillations, and the export license management policy may put short - term pressure on prices but is expected to be gradually digested [2]. - Iron ore prices are estimated to operate within an oscillating range. Supply shows an increasing trend in overseas shipments, while demand has declined with a drop in daily pig iron production. The overall inventory is rising, and the impact of the export license management policy needs further observation [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the report remains relatively optimistic about the black sector and domestic policies. Future market trends will be led by the direction of the black sector and cost increases due to factors such as manganese ore and electricity prices [9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate following the market, with short - term rebounds after touching support levels. The supply reduction has encountered a bottleneck, and demand is weakening [13]. - Polysilicon prices saw a significant increase yesterday. Although production is expected to decline in December, the pressure of inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival is difficult to alleviate. The market shows a differentiation between expectations and reality, and short - term fluctuations are expected to increase [16]. - The float glass market maintains a weak supply - demand balance, and prices are expected to show narrow - range oscillations in the short term due to high inventory and weak demand [19]. - Soda ash prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term due to increasing supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes [21]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel Products Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3084 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.097%) compared to the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 57057 tons, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 10413 lots to 1.604729 million lots. The Tianjin aggregate price was 3160 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregate price was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: This week, rebar production decreased significantly, inventory continued to decline, and the supply - demand structure was relatively balanced, showing a neutral - stable performance [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3245 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%). The registered warehouse receipts were 103404 tons, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 6813 lots to 1.199948 million lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregate prices were unchanged [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, apparent demand slightly decreased, and inventory reduction became more difficult. Factory inventory has shown a phased accumulation this week [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 768.00 yuan/ton, up 0.92% (+7.00). The open interest increased by 9427 lots to 489,000 lots. The weighted open interest was 884,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 67.93 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.13% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase. The daily pig iron production fell below 2.292 million tons. Port inventory continued to rise, and steel mill inventory was at a low level. Iron ore prices are estimated to operate within an oscillating range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On December 17, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose 0.38% to close at 5758 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 132 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose 1.17% to close at 5546 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The report is relatively optimistic about the black sector and domestic policies. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon will be affected by the direction of the black sector and cost increases caused by factors such as manganese ore and electricity prices [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon was 8470 yuan/ton, up 1.26% (+105). The weighted open interest decreased by 6191 lots to 425,093 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 730 yuan/ton for the main contract; the 421 spot price was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 380 yuan/ton after conversion [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon price rebounded slightly after touching the support level. Supply reduction has encountered a bottleneck, and demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate following the market [13]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 61,595 yuan/ton, up 5.11% (+2995). The weighted open interest decreased by 1463 lots to 275,506 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material were unchanged, with a basis of - 9295 yuan/ton for the main contract [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon price rose by over 5% yesterday. Although production is expected to decline in December, the pressure of inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival is difficult to alleviate. The market shows a differentiation between expectations and reality, and short - term fluctuations are expected to increase [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: The main contract of glass closed at 1038 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, unchanged. The North China large - plate price was 1040 yuan, and the Central China price was 1080 yuan, both unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.215 million boxes (- 2.04%) to 58.227 million boxes. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 30,888 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 23,121 lots [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side saw some production lines cold - repaired, and daily melting volume declined, but high inventory and weak terminal demand restricted upward price movement. The market is expected to show narrow - range oscillations in the short term [19]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1170 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, unchanged. The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1137 yuan, down 6 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 443,000 tons (- 2.04%) to 1.4943 million tons, with heavy - soda and light - soda inventories both decreasing [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and the expected release of new capacity in Alxa, supply pressure is increasing. Demand remains weak, and prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space, and the valuation is high [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The prices were pushed up during the night session of the black series, and the price trend is strong [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between long and short sentiments, with wide - range fluctuations [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal: Wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Logs: Low - level fluctuations [2][19]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 was 768.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan/ton with a 0.92% increase. The position increased by 9,427 hands to 488,996 hands. Imported ore and most domestic ore prices rose slightly. The basis against Super Special decreased by 5.9 yuan/ton, and the 12605 - 12609 spread increased by 1.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: From January to November, national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%, and residential investment was 6043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3084 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase; HC2605 was 3245 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase. The trading volume and position of both decreased. Spot prices remained unchanged. The basis of RB2605 decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and that of HC2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton [7]. - **News**: In early December 2025, key steel enterprises' daily crude steel output increased by 2.8%, daily pig iron output decreased by 3.4%, and daily steel output decreased by 12.1%. Steel inventory increased by 3.3% compared with the previous ten - day period. Some steel products are subject to export license management. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand all decreased in the week of December 11. In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 2.5%. In October 2025, China's imported steel decreased by 8.2% month - on - month [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 were 5546 and 5502 yuan/ton respectively, and those of silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 were 5758 and 5796 yuan/ton respectively. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were 5200 and 5540 yuan/ton respectively. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed to varying degrees [11]. - **News**: On December 17, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Some silicon - iron plants had production adjustments. UMK and NMT raised the manganese ore quotation for January 2026. Some steel mills had procurement price adjustments for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2601 was 970.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton with a 0.3% decrease; J2601 was 1530.5 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton with a 1.1% increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads of different contracts changed [15]. - **News**: From January to November, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and residential investment decreased by 15.0% [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [18]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts changed to varying degrees. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [20]. - **News**: From January to November, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and residential investment decreased by 15.0% [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [22].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report [1] - Report Date: December 17, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03134259 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0021009 [1] - Contact Information: zhoutao_qh1@chinastock.com.cn [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Trading Volume | Daily Change | Open Interest | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SF Main Contract | 5546 | 64 | 112 | 270107 | -12241 | 257884 | -6534 | | SM Main Contract | 5758 | 22 | 34 | 130766 | -29544 | 276107 | -2682 | [2] Spot Market | Product | Region | Spot Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 72% FeSi | Inner Mongolia | 5280 | 0 | 80 | | 72% FeSi | Ningxia | 5220 | -30 | 20 | | 72% FeSi | Qinghai | 5200 | 0 | -50 | | 72% FeSi | Jiangsu | 5600 | 100 | 100 | | 72% FeSi | Tianjin | 5600 | 50 | -50 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Inner Mongolia | 5540 | 0 | 20 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Ningxia | 5490 | 0 | 0 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Guangxi | 5600 | 0 | 50 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Jiangsu | 5680 | -20 | 0 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Tianjin | 5700 | 0 | 0 | [2] Basis/Spread | Product | Region | Basis/Spread | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ferrosilicon | Inner Mongolia - Main Contract | -266 | -64 | -32 | | Ferrosilicon | Ningxia - Main Contract | -326 | -94 | -92 | | Ferrosilicon | Qinghai - Main Contract | -346 | -64 | -162 | | Ferrosilicon | Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia | 320 | 100 | 20 | | Ferrosilicon - Silicomanganese Spread | - | -212 | 42 | 78 | | Silicomanganese | Inner Mongolia - Main Contract | -218 | -22 | -14 | | Silicomanganese | Ningxia - Main Contract | -268 | -22 | -34 | | Silicomanganese | Guangxi - Main Contract | -158 | -22 | 16 | | Silicomanganese | Guangxi - Inner Mongolia | 60 | 0 | 30 | [2] Raw Materials | Raw Material | Region | Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Manganese Ore (Tianjin) - Australian Lumps | - | 41.5 | 0 | -0.2 | | Manganese Ore (Tianjin) - South African Semi - Carbonate | - | 34.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | | Manganese Ore (Tianjin) - Gabon Lumps | - | 43 | 0 | -0.5 | | Lanthanum Coke Small Material - Shaanxi | - | 800 | 0 | -20 | | Lanthanum Coke Small Material - Ningxia | - | 900 | 0 | -20 | | Lanthanum Coke Small Material - Inner Mongolia | - | 790 | 0 | -20 | [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Trading Strategy - On December 17, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The SF main contract closed at 5546, up 1.17%, with open interest decreasing by 6534 lots; the SM main contract closed at 5758, up 0.38%, with open interest decreasing by 2682 lots [5] - Ferrosilicon: On the 17th, spot prices showed mixed trends, with spot prices in some regions rising by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. On the supply side, recent poor corporate profit conditions have led some manufacturers to add maintenance or switch to other products, and this week's supply is expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, the macro data in November continued to weaken, and both steel production and apparent consumption decreased microscopically, still putting pressure on raw material demand. Overall, the fundamentals continue the pattern of weak supply and demand and continue to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - Silicomanganese: On the 17th, manganese ore spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, with the semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port rising by 0.1 yuan/ton degree, while silicomanganese spot prices were stable with a slight downward trend, and spot prices in some regions fell by 20 yuan/ton. On the supply side, manufacturers' profit levels are not good, and the supply side is expected to decline. On the demand side, the real estate data in November continued to deteriorate, and both the apparent consumption and production of rebar decreased microscopically, dragging down the demand for silicomanganese. On the cost side, manganese ore port inventories are at the same - period low, and the quotes of overseas mines in January have all increased slightly, with the cost side rising, providing strong short - term price support, but the upside is suppressed by demand expectations [5] Specific Strategies - Unilateral: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the cost side still provides support, with prices fluctuating at the bottom [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] Important Information - On the 17th, the price of 37% Mn semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton degree, the price of 48.3% Mn Gabon lumps was 43 yuan/ton degree, and the price of 27.67% Mn, 22.37% Fe South African high - iron ore with a particle size of 10 - 100mm was 29.5 yuan/ton degree [7] - Two 72 ferrosilicon furnaces of a large factory in Gansu started to switch production, with one switching to low - aluminum ferrosilicon and one switching to 97 silicon [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts, such as the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread of main contracts sf - sm, the monthly spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (main contract - Inner Mongolia), the spot price of silicomanganese, the spot price of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese, ferroalloy electricity prices, the cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16][17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Central Economic Work Conference, the macro - positive factors faded, and steel pricing reverted to fundamentals. Supply is affected by iron - water production cuts, but profit rebounds may slow down the cut - off speed. Demand is seasonally weak due to shrinking real - estate steel use and construction restrictions, and new export regulations suppress export expectations. The overall trend of steel is oscillating weakly [3]. - After macro - events, the trading logic of iron ore has returned to fundamentals. With restrained shipments from major mines, falling freight rates, low steel - mill inventories, and high coking - coal production and inventory, the downside of iron - ore prices is limited [21]. - For coking coal, supply changes are limited, but steel - mill profit pressure leads to iron - water production cuts. Coking enterprises control procurement, and mine inventory pressure is increasing, so short - term coal prices will be under pressure. For coke, production has declined slightly due to environmental protection. After two rounds of price cuts, if there is no policy intervention, coke supply - demand may deteriorate, and prices may continue to fall [31]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak, but news from relevant departments has led to a price rebound. However, price increases may stimulate enterprises to hedge, suppressing prices [46]. - With the strengthening of new - capacity production expectations, the over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying. Glass cold - repair is accelerating, weakening the rigid - demand expectation. Although exports are high, high upper - and middle - stream inventories restrict prices [60]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, affecting far - month pricing. Near - month contracts will follow the delivery logic, and currently, high intermediate inventories and off - season demand create pressure on spot prices [83]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed minor fluctuations compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3095 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [4]. - The month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed slightly. The rebar 01 - 05 month - spread was 11 yuan/ton on December 17, up 2 yuan from the previous day [4]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices and Basis - On December 17, 2025, the summary prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed little change. The summary price of rebar in China was 3299 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day [9]. - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions was mostly negative or showed a downward trend. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was not available on December 17, while it was 190 yuan/ton the previous day [9]. 3.1.3 Other Ratios - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable on December 17, 2025, compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 [18]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Futures Prices and Basis - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of iron - ore contracts increased slightly compared to the previous day. The 01 contract closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [22]. - The basis of iron - ore contracts decreased. The 01 basis was - 0.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [22]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data - From November 14 to December 12, 2025, the average daily iron - water production decreased by 7.68 tons, the 45 - port shipping volume decreased by 7.76 tons, and the global shipment volume increased by 76.1 tons [25]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke 3.3.1 Futures Spreads and Ratios - On December 17, 2025, the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was 162.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day [34]. - The coking profit on the disk was 21 yuan/ton, up 17.353 yuan from the previous day [34]. 3.3.2 Spot Prices and Profits - On December 17, 2025, the spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions mostly remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [37]. - The immediate coking profit was 21 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day [37]. 3.4 Ferroalloys 3.4.1 Silicon Iron - On December 17, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 76 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan from the previous day. The silicon - iron 01 - 05 month - spread was - 62 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [47]. - The silicon - iron spot prices in different regions showed minor changes. The silicon - iron spot price in Ningxia was 5220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day [47]. 3.4.2 Silicon Manganese - On December 17, 2025, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 132 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan from the previous day. The silicon - manganese 01 - 05 month - spread was - 60 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [48]. - The silicon - manganese spot prices in different regions were mostly stable or increased slightly. The silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [48]. 3.5 Soda Ash 3.5.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the soda - ash 05 contract was 1170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - spread (9 - 1) was 94 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day [61]. - The basis of soda ash in different regions decreased. The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was - 27 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan from the previous day [61]. 3.5.2 Spot Prices - On December 17, 2025, the spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were mostly stable. The heavy - alkali market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [61]. 3.6 Glass 3.6.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1038 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - spread (9 - 1) was 176 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [84]. - The basis of the glass 01 contract in different regions increased. The 01 contract basis in Shahe was 68 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day [84]. 3.6.2 Sales and Production - From December 5 - 12, 2025, the glass sales - to - production ratios in different regions fluctuated. The Shahe sales - to - production ratio on December 12 was 59% [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the report 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on December 17, 2025, the prices of宁夏72 and 内蒙72 were 5150 and 5200 respectively, with daily changes of -50 and -20, and weekly changes of 50 and 80. The prices of different contracts on the disk also had corresponding changes [2] - For silicon manganese, the prices of different regions such as 内蒙6517, 宁夏6517, etc. had different daily and weekly changes on the same day [2] Supply - The report presents the historical production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025, including monthly and weekly production, as well as the capacity utilization rate of enterprises in different regions [5] - It also shows the historical production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, and the procurement volume and price data of HeSteel Group [7] Demand - The report provides historical data on the demand volume of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, and also shows the production data of related products such as crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, etc., which are related to the demand for ferroalloys [5][8] Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, it shows the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in different regions (China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi) from 2021 - 2025, as well as the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory average available days in different regions [6] - For silicon manganese, it presents the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, inventory average available days, and inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [8] Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, it shows the electricity price data in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi), the market price of raw materials such as semi - coke, and the production cost, disk profit, and spot profit in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 [6] - For silicon manganese, it shows the profit data of different regions (Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, North Region, South Region) from 2021 - 2025, as well as the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract on the disk [8]

黑色建材日报 2025-12-17 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3081 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.227%）。当日注册仓单 57057 吨, 环比增加 15157 吨。主力合约持仓量为 161.5142 万手，环比减少 12524 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3246 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 13 元/吨（0.402%）。 当日注册仓单 103404 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 12 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - After the Central Economic Work Conference, the macro - positive factors faded, and pricing returned to fundamentals. Steel supply is reducing, but the recovery of steel mill profits may slow down the reduction speed. Demand is seasonally weak, and steel exports are expected to tighten. Steel inventories show different trends, with short - term prices fluctuating weakly [3]. - After macro events, trading logic returned to fundamentals. Iron ore supply from major mines is restricted, and steel mills have a need to replenish inventory. Iron ore demand is seasonally declining but is expected to rebound in January. Falling coking coal prices provide support, and the downside price space is limited [21]. - Coking coal supply has limited marginal changes, but due to pressure on steel mill profits and unexpected reduction in hot metal production, coking coal supply exceeds demand. Coke production decreased slightly last week due to environmental restrictions. With the decline in coking coal costs, coke prices are likely to continue to fall [31]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak, but news from the SASAC and the National Development and Reform Commission led to a price rebound today. However, price increases may stimulate enterprises to hedge and suppress prices [47]. - With the strengthening of new production capacity expectations, the expectation of soda ash oversupply is intensifying. The acceleration of glass cold - repair weakens the demand for soda ash. Although exports are high, high inventories restrict prices [65]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold - repair, which may affect long - term pricing. Near - term contracts will follow the delivery logic, and currently, high intermediate inventories and weak end - market demand put pressure on spot prices [88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3090, 3081, and 3112 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3254, 3246, and 3255 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The rebar spot prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou were 3295, 3280, 3120, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the hot - rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and Shenyang were 3270, 3260, and 3180 yuan/ton respectively [9][11]. Ratio and Spread Data - The 01, 05, and 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were all 4, and the 01, 05, and 10 rebar/coke ratios were all 2 [18]. - The 01, 05, and 10 roll - to - rebar spreads were 164, 165, and 143 yuan/ton respectively, and the roll - to - rebar spot spreads in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenyang were - 10, 210, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [15]. Iron Ore Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 783.5, 761, and 739.5 yuan/ton respectively. The 01, 05, and 09 basis were 1, 25, and 46.5 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - The prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 779, 856, and 666 yuan/ton respectively [22]. Fundamental Data - The daily average hot metal production was 229.2 tons, 45 - port throughput was 319.19 tons, and the apparent demand for five major steel products was 840 tons [25]. - Global shipments were 3592.5 tons, Australia - Brazil shipments were 2889.3 tons, and 45 - port arrivals were 2723.4 tons [25]. - The 45 - port inventory was 15431.42 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8834.2 tons [25]. Coal and Coke Price Data - The 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 170.5, - 76.5, and - 94 yuan/ton respectively, and those of coke were 234, - 78.5, and - 155.5 yuan/ton respectively [35]. - The spot price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [38]. Ratio and Profit Data - The main mine - to - coke ratio was 0.503, the main rebar - to - coke ratio was 2.034, and the main coke - to - coal ratio was 1.524 [35]. - The on - the - spot coking profit was 21 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian coal import profit (long - term agreement) was 213 yuan/ton [38]. Ferroalloys Price Data - The silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 18 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 154 yuan/ton [48][49]. - The spot prices of silicon - iron in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai were 5250, 5280, and 5200 yuan/ton respectively, and the spot prices of silicon - manganese in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou were 5490, 5540, and 5550 yuan/ton respectively [48][49]. Cost and Inventory Data - The price of semi - coke small materials was 800 yuan/ton, and the price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 737 yuan/ton [48]. - The silicon - iron warehouse receipts were 13068, and the silicon - manganese warehouse receipts were 25032 [48][50]. Soda Ash Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1170, 1221, and 1133 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 51, 88, and - 37 yuan/ton respectively [66]. - The heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and East China were 1300, 1400, and 1250 yuan/ton respectively [66]. Fundamental Data - In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, maintaining a high level [65]. - The upper - and middle - stream inventories were generally high, restricting soda ash prices [65]. Glass Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1038, 1117, and 946 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 79, 171, and - 92 yuan/ton respectively [89]. - The 01 - contract basis in Shahe and Hubei was 64 and 140 yuan/ton respectively [89]. Sales and Production Data - On December 12, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 59, 90, 89, and 102 respectively [90].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a black metal daily report dated December 16, 2025, focusing on ferroalloys [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - SF主力合约收盘价5482, down 36 from the previous day and up 20 for the week, with a trading volume of 282348 (down 125888) and an open interest of 257168 (up 716) [2] - SM主力合约收盘价5736, down 22 from the previous day and up 4 for the week, with a trading volume of 160310 (down 64885) and an open interest of 278789 (up 5134) [2] Spot Market - For ferrosilicon, spot prices in some regions decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton on December 16. For example, 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5280 yuan/ton, down 20 from the previous day and up 80 for the week [2] - For silicomanganese, spot prices were stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 20 - yuan/ton decrease. For example, silicomanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 30 for the week [2] Basis/Spread - For ferrosilicon, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was -202, up 16 from the previous day and up 60 for the week [2] - For silicomanganese, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was -196, up 22 from the previous day and up 26 for the week [2] - The SF - SM spread was -254, down 14 from the previous day and up 16 for the week [2] Raw Materials - Manganese ore prices in Tianjin were mostly stable, with the Gabon lump price down 0.5 for the week [2] - Lanthanum semi - coke prices in some regions decreased by 20 yuan/ton for the week [2] Group 3: Market Judgment Ferrosilicon - On December 16, the spot price was stable to weak. The supply side may decline slightly this week due to poor enterprise profits and new maintenance in some Qinghai manufacturers [5] - The demand side is under pressure as November macro data weakened and both steel production and apparent consumption decreased [5] - The overall fundamentals remain in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to oscillate at the bottom [5] Silicomanganese - On December 16, manganese ore spot prices were stable, and silicomanganese spot prices were stable to weak [5] - The supply side is expected to decline due to poor manufacturer profit levels [5] - The demand side is dragged down by the deterioration of November real - estate data and the decline of rebar apparent consumption and production [5] - The cost side is supported as manganese ore port inventories are at a low level and overseas mines' January quotes have increased slightly, but the upside is restricted by demand expectations [5] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and cost support, prices will oscillate at the bottom [6] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] Group 5: Important Information - UMK announced its January 2026 manganese ore quote to China, with the South African semi - carbonate lump price at $4.15/ton - degree (up $0.05) [7] - NMT announced its January 2026 manganese ore shipping quote to China, with the Mn36% (minimum) South African semi - carbonate lump at $4.15/ton - degree (up $0.05) [7] Group 6: Related Attachments - Include graphs such as the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, monthly spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [13][15][18][20][23]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报12.08-12.12 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 从成本端来看，硅锰合金成本支撑力度依旧较强。虽焦炭价格小幅回落，但核心原料锰矿价格保持坚挺，其中高度氧 化矿涨幅尤为显著，成本端坚挺格局有效托底合金价格。 从供应端来看，期货层面，硅锰盘面近期仍维持震荡走 势，多呈现"开盘拉涨，尾盘回落"特点，但上行空间有限。现货层面，工厂零售报价意愿较低，多捂货不出，等待 盘面冲高后再出货，由此厂家库存压力有所抬升。北方地区合金厂近期新增硅锰产能稳定运行，后续将缓慢出铁，届 时供应压力进一步加大；南方地区等地受枯水期电价上涨带来的成本抬升影响，多数厂家选择避峰减产，减产企业较 多。其余地区合金厂开工维持低位，传统生产淡季出现减产情况。 从需求端来看，12月河 ...