Group 1 - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (CPCIF) engaged in discussions with the Beihai municipal government regarding the overall development of the petrochemical industry and the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - CPCIF emphasized the importance of serving the government and industry by actively communicating and providing constructive feedback to local authorities [1] - The CPCIF plans to play a supportive role in the strategic planning, investment attraction, and resource integration for the Beihai petrochemical industry [1] Group 2 - The Deputy Director of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning Institute analyzed the trends of industrial intensification and green transformation, highlighting Beihai's strategic advantages such as its deep-water port and proximity to ASEAN [2] - Recommendations for Beihai's petrochemical industry include aligning with national energy security strategies and exploring Sino-foreign joint ventures [2] - The focus should be on upgrading existing refining capacities to high-end chemicals and developing low-carbon projects like wind power hydrogen coupling and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [2]

王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/11 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/桶 | 66.57 | 68.38 | -2.65% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/桶 | 68.64 | 70.19 | -2.21% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/吨 | 591.00 | 598.25 | -1.21% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/7/10 | | 美元/吨 | 726.00 | 724.50 | 0.21% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/吨 | 852.00 | 849.67 | 0.27% | ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the significant role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China's industrialization and economic development since the establishment of the new China and the reform and opening-up policy [2][3] - It highlights the importance of a unified and ambitious government in achieving industrialization, contrasting China's efforts with earlier attempts during the Self-Strengthening Movement [3] - The strategic choice to prioritize heavy industry in the early years of the new China is discussed, showcasing the influence of Soviet models and the resulting structure of SOEs [3][4] Group 2 - The article outlines the advantages of China's socialist system in mobilizing resources for large-scale projects, citing examples like the "Two Bombs, One Satellite" and major infrastructure achievements [4] - It discusses the role of party leadership in building a dedicated workforce, exemplified by the spirit of workers and scientists who contributed to the industrial system's resilience and growth [5] - The narrative of reform and opening-up is presented, illustrating how China capitalized on technological advancements and market opportunities to develop a comprehensive industrial system [5][6] Group 3 - The article addresses the current challenges posed by Western pressures on China's industrialization, emphasizing the critical role of SOEs as the backbone of the socialist economy [6] - It advocates for the digital transformation of SOEs, highlighting the need for innovation and modernization in traditional industries to enhance productivity [6][7] - The importance of strategic emerging industries is discussed, with examples of SOEs diversifying into renewable energy, biotechnology, and new materials [7] Group 4 - The article stresses the pivotal role of SOEs in the new type of national system, which combines market mechanisms with government initiatives to foster innovation [7][8] - It emphasizes the need for talent development and the cultivation of skilled professionals to support the long-term goals of new industrialization [8] - The publication of the book "National Industrial Code" is positioned as a guide for future industrial development, aiming to inspire collaboration among stakeholders in the industrial sector [8]

1. Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - **Copper**: The short - term price range is expected to be between 77,300 and 79,000, and the medium - term range is 60,000 - 90,000. A volatile trading strategy is recommended. Trump's proposed 50% tariff on US copper imports, supply changes in Chile and Indonesia, weak growth in Chinese home air - conditioner exports, and inventory increases are the main influencing factors. The high tariff may negatively impact real demand in the US [1][2]. Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Protein Meal**: In the short term, the fluctuation of soybean meal is smaller than that of soybean oil. The soybean meal 2509 contract is expected to find a bottom in the range of [2,875, 3,100]. It is recommended to continue holding the short position of the out - of - the - money put option of soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850. The weather during the growing season of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseeds, trade policies, and the results of relevant hearings are the key factors affecting the market [3][5]. Petroleum Asphalt - In the short term, asphalt is expected to fluctuate and strengthen following the cost of crude oil. In the long term, the supply is on the rise, and factors such as typhoon weather in summer and insufficient project funds may affect the release of rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the marginal improvement of asphalt demand in August [6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Supply**: In June, Chile's copper export value was $4.67 billion, a 17.5% year - on - year increase. Indonesia may relax the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International due to local economic impacts [1]. - **Demand**: In May 2025, China's home air - conditioner exports were 9.695 million units, a slight 0.1% year - on - year increase, affected by the high base last year and "rush - to - export" behavior [1]. - **Inventory**: On July 9, LME copper inventory increased by 4,625 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 2,227 tons to 21,336 tons [2]. Protein Meal - **Soybean**: From late May to now, the soil moisture of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseeds has been good. As of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of 25/26 US soybeans was 66%, the flowering rate was 32%, and the pod - setting rate was 8%. Anec expects sufficient soybean arrivals in South America in July and August, and the trend of imported soybean inventory accumulation is gradually ending [3][4]. - **Rapeseed**: The drought in Canadian new - crop rapeseeds in late June has recently improved. As of June 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseeds in Alberta has recovered from 45% to 58%. The development progress of oilseed crops and annual forage crops in Saskatchewan is still slower than normal but earlier than last year [4]. Petroleum Asphalt - **Supply**: As of July 8, the production profit of asphalt in Shandong independent refineries was - 543.66 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 95.61 yuan/ton. The domestic asphalt refinery operating rate was 32.7%, a weekly increase of 1.0 percentage point. The domestic weekly asphalt production was 566,000 tons, a weekly increase of 13,000 tons. In the first six months of this year, China's cumulative asphalt production was 13.781 million tons, a 5.2% year - on - year increase [6]. - **Demand**: The terminal demand for asphalt is weak, mainly restricted by capital shortages and heavy rainfall in the South. The demand in the North is relatively stable. After the plum - rain season in East and South China in July, it theoretically enters the peak demand season, but some northern regions are still affected by rainfall. The social inventory depletion has slowed down [7]. - **Cost**: The extension of the US tariff negotiation period and Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels have provided upward momentum for oil prices. In summer, the peak driving season arrives, refinery operating rates in major oil - consuming countries return to normal, and US shale oil production has declined for ten consecutive weeks, providing some support for oil prices [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Gansu Province's naphtha production in May 2025 experienced a decline of 2.2% year-on-year, totaling 0.8 thousand tons, with a significant decrease in growth rate compared to the previous year [1] - In the first five months of 2025, Gansu Province's naphtha production reached 4.9 thousand tons, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 56.7%, which is 35.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2] - The naphtha production in Gansu accounted for 0.1% of the national output of 630.9 million tons in May 2025 and 0.2% of the national output of 3243.6 million tons in the first five months of 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - The data is derived from large-scale industrial enterprises, defined as those with annual main business revenues of 20 million yuan or more [4]

Group 1 - In May 2025, the diesel production in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region reached 291,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [1] - The growth rate in May 2025 was 2.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, indicating a slowdown in growth [1] - The diesel production in Ningxia accounted for 1.8% of the national diesel production of 15,912,000 tons during the same period, which was 19.0 percentage points higher than the national growth rate [1] Group 2 - From January to May 2025, the total diesel production in Ningxia was 1,336,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [2] - The growth rate for the first five months of 2025 was 12.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, also indicating a slowdown [2] - The diesel production in Ningxia during this period represented 1.7% of the national diesel production of 79,248,000 tons, which was 10.7 percentage points higher than the national growth rate [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and EW oscillated at a low level. The 380 8 - 9 month spread dropped to $3.25, the basis oscillated at a low level, the FU09 internal - external spread weakened significantly, and the domestic delivery volume was large, maintaining a loose pattern. The 0.5 crack spread in Singapore decreased slightly, the monthly spread oscillated, and the 8 - 9 month spread oscillated around $6. The LU internal - external spread remained strong, with LU09 oscillating around $17. Singapore's on - shore inventory increased this week, the window was under delivery pressure, and the near - month contracts were under pressure. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, the high - sulfur supply - demand was in the peak season, the internal - external spread has dropped rapidly, the external low - sulfur valuation was high, and the LU internal - external spread was running at a high level. Attention should be paid to domestic production [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 409.77 | 410.21 | 415.73 | 421.39 | 426.47 | 5.08 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 469.65 | 466.59 | 469.33 | 473.90 | 474.79 | 0.89 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 2.78 | - 2.61 | - 2.45 | - 2.47 | - 1.76 | 0.71 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 664.83 | 671.26 | 665.18 | 678.94 | 675.44 | - 3.50 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 195.18 | - 204.67 | - 195.85 | - 205.04 | - 200.65 | 4.39 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.34 | 23.61 | 21.59 | 22.87 | 22.33 | - 0.54 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 59.88 | 56.38 | 53.60 | 52.51 | 48.32 | - 4.19 |[2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 416.15 | 416.21 | 414.51 | 421.88 | 426.95 | 5.07 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 424.78 | 424.41 | 423.40 | 430.38 | 436.11 | 5.73 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 500.37 | 500.75 | 496.05 | 503.04 | 507.25 | 4.21 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 87.39 | 86.91 | 88.27 | 87.84 | 90.06 | 2.22 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 1.67 | - 1.70 | - 1.74 | - 1.55 | - 1.84 | - 0.29 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 146.32 | - 142.38 | - 157.15 | - 146.98 | - 159.19 | - 12.21 |[2][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 406.28 | 407.59 | 406.54 | 416.16 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 513.61 | 512.68 | 507.10 | 513.00 | - | - | | 380 Basis | - 7.15 | - 6.40 | - 6.25 | - 5.00 | - | - | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 4.2 | - 2.9 | - 4.7 | - 7.0 | - 10.3 | - 3.3 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 16.8 | 17.0 | 17.7 | 18.3 | 16.6 | - 1.7 |[3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2871 | 2857 | 2848 | 2869 | 2902 | 33 | | FU 05 | 2815 | 2805 | 2794 | 2807 | 2837 | 30 | | FU 09 | 2987 | 2966 | 2947 | 2972 | 2982 | 10 | | FU 01 - 05 | 56 | 52 | 54 | 62 | 65 | 3 | | FU 05 - 09 | - 172 | - 161 | - 153 | - 165 | - 145 | 20 | | FU 09 - 01 | 116 | 109 | 99 | 103 | 80 | - 23 |[3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3522 | 3507 | 3495 | 3526 | 3568 | 42 | | LU 05 | 3455 | 3434 | 3426 | 3470 | 3472 | 2 | | LU 09 | 3623 | 3621 | 3619 | 3663 | 3692 | 29 | | LU 01 - 05 | 67 | - | 69 | 56 | 96 | 40 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 168 | - 187 | - 193 | - 193 | - 220 | - 27 | | LU 09 - 01 | 101 | 114 | 124 | 137 | 124 | - 13 |[4]

Core Viewpoint - The production of soda ash (sodium carbonate) in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region has experienced a significant decline in May 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%, indicating a notable downturn in the industry [1]. Group 1: May 2025 Production Data - The soda ash production in May 2025 reached 28,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.9% [1]. - The growth rate compared to the same period last year decreased by 24.7 percentage points [1]. - The production accounted for 0.9% of the national output of 3,166,000 tons during the same period [1]. Group 2: January to May 2025 Production Data - The total soda ash production from January to May 2025 was 177,000 tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% [1]. - The growth rate for this period was 13.7 percentage points lower than the previous year [1]. - This production represented 1.1% of the national total of 16,602,000 tons for the same timeframe [1].

Core Insights - The petroleum coke production in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region reached 110,000 tons in the first four months of 2025, marking a significant increase of 143.3% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - In April 2025 alone, the production was 31,000 tons, reflecting a growth of 174.4% year-on-year, which is substantially higher than the national growth rates [2] Group 1: Production Data - The cumulative petroleum coke production from January to April 2025 in Ningxia accounted for 1.0% of the national total production of 10,499,000 tons [1] - The April 2025 production represented 1.3% of the national total production of 2,435,000 tons for that month [2] Group 2: Growth Comparison - The growth rate of petroleum coke production in Ningxia for the first four months of 2025 exceeded the previous year's rate by 146.6 percentage points [1] - The April 2025 production growth rate was 180.6 percentage points higher than the same month in 2024 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of international crude oil are better than those of PTA, with effective support from rigid demand. PX has a solid bottom support due to its low inventory, but its future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PTA is expected to increase in supply, with a weakening market sentiment and a difficult - to - change situation of near - strong and far - weak. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to price drops. PTA has some support when polyester does not significantly reduce production, but may become relatively weak if polyester production cuts expand. The profit distribution of the industrial chain is tilted towards raw materials. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to be tight, and the market has increased buying enthusiasm. The polyester industry chain is expected to see PX, PTA, and PR oscillate, following cost fluctuations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 9, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $68.38 per barrel, up 0.07%; Brent crude oil was $70.19 per barrel, up 0.06%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $598.25 per ton, up 2.00%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $724.00 per ton, up 0.63%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $850.00 per ton, up 0.32% [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,718 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 4,714 yuan per ton, up 0.08%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,762 yuan per ton, down 0.33%; the settlement price was 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,748 yuan per ton, down 1.04%; the CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,755 yuan per ton, down 1.04%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $638.00 per ton, up 0.47%. The near - far month spread was 56 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan; the basis was 37 yuan per ton, down 58 yuan [1] - **PX**: The closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,724 yuan per ton, up 0.42%; the settlement price was 6,716 yuan per ton, up 0.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,890 yuan per ton, up 0.32%; the settlement price was 6,890 yuan per ton, up 0.32%. The domestic spot price of PX was 6,736 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $850.00 per ton, up 0.24%; the spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $825.00 per ton, up 0.24%. The PXN spread was $251.75 per ton, down 3.48%; the PX - MX spread was $126.00 per ton, down 1.43%; the basis was 12 yuan per ton, down 28 yuan [1] - **PR**: The closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,880 yuan per ton, up 0.24%; the settlement price was 5,874 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The market price of polyester bottle - chip in the East China market was 5,945 yuan per ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 6,000 yuan per ton, unchanged. The basis in the East China market was 65 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan; in the South China market, it was 120 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On July 9, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,700 yuan per ton, down 0.57%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,150 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,000 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,000 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,680 yuan per ton, down 0.30%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chip was 5,825 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chip was 5,945 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of PX in the polyester industrial chain was 78.98%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.59%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 86.87%, down 0.43%; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was not available, compared with 71.93% previously; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 61.22%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales - On July 9, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 43.00%, up 9.00%; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 61.00%, up 16.00%; the sales rate of polyester chip was 49.00%, up 1.00% [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days; Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal; Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Important Information - OPEC+ actual production increase was weaker than policy expectations, EIA lowered the US crude oil production forecast, and the reduction of US API crude oil inventory supported oil prices. PTA will put into operation new devices in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in time. PX inventory is at a historical low, and its bottom support is strong. The downstream polyester factories have further reduced production, and the PTA supply is expected to increase, with a weakening market sentiment. The absolute value of PTA inventory is decreasing, but the relative value is at a five - year high. The polyester factories' actual maintenance in July led to a significant decrease in operation compared to June. The polyester industrial chain is driven by fundamentals, and the weakening supply - demand expectations led to price drops [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is weakly consolidating, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,718 yuan per ton (up 0.17%), and the daily trading volume of 867,400 lots; PX price is consolidating, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,724 yuan per ton (up 0.42%), and the daily trading volume of 177,100 lots; PR follows cost fluctuations, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,880 yuan per ton (up 0.17%), and the daily trading volume of 41,600 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will oscillate [2]