市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 快手科技第三季度调整后净利润49.9亿元人民币，预估48.3亿元人民币。 快手科技第三季度净利润44.9 亿元人民币，预估41.5亿元人民币。 ...

2025.11. 19 华金证券策略分析师邓利军认为，市场短期风险偏好可能偏中性。国内短期稳增长政策预期仍对风险 偏好有一定支撑；海外方面，受美联储内部分歧加剧影响，12月降息预期有所下降。 中金公司则分析，2025年的市场，从多个维度看，都是超出预期的，称之为牛市毫不为过。这背 后，既有实实在在的产业趋势（AI）和基本面改善。展望2026年，不论是越来越多A股和中国优质 资产赴港上市，还是南向资金持续涌入，对港股市场长期是大有裨益的。 本文字数：966，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 李隽 11月18日晚间，小米集团（01810.HK）公布了超预期的第三季度业绩，然而19日上午却大跌 4.32%，中午报收39.02港元，恒生科技指数跌0.98%，报收5590点。 港股其他科技股也存在类似情况，包括腾讯控股（00700.HK）、京东集团（09618.HK）都是业绩 超预期，然后连跌五天。 业内人士认为，美联储12月降息不确定，港股进入震荡时期，降息消息落地后成交和波动幅度将会 回升；另一方面，投资者对当前人工智能（AI）投资形成的资产泡沫也有一定担忧，美股科技股也 出现了下滑；而国内稳增长政策对风险偏 ...

Core Insights - Google's Gemini AI system is advancing towards L3 AI capabilities, allowing for extended task execution and multi-agent collaboration [15][18] - The Gemini system can run for 40 minutes on a single task, generating over 100 creative ideas and providing structured evaluation reports [2][10] Group 1: Gemini's Functionality - Gemini employs a multi-agent competition system that generates and ranks ideas based on user input, significantly reducing the time spent on iterative feedback [4][7] - The system's process includes a 40-minute cycle of generation, competition, and selection, resulting in a comprehensive output rather than a single response [7][10] - Two primary applications of this system are creative generation and collaborative research, enhancing the scope of tasks it can handle [9][10] Group 2: L3 AI Development - The transition to L3 AI, characterized by autonomous task execution over extended periods, is exemplified by Gemini's ability to operate continuously for 40 minutes [15][18] - This capability positions Gemini closer to the L3 definition, with potential future developments suggesting even longer operational durations [15][17] - The ongoing development of collaborative research features may further elevate Gemini towards L4 AI capabilities [18]

美银证券表示，计及中国芯片供应情况及季度资本开支波动的影响后，目前预测腾讯今明两年资本开支 将分别达到750亿及900亿元人民币。对于腾讯AI应用"元宝"日均活跃用户表现较同业字节跳动"豆包"及 阿里巴巴-W(09988)"夸克"落后，该行则认为是由于各企业推广策略不同，而非模型能力的差异，目前 仍相信腾讯得益于微信主导地位及完整内容与服务移动生态系统所支持，其在中国AI代理竞争中有优 势。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，看好腾讯控股(00700)核心业务增长前景清晰，认同管理层对 金融科技及企业服务(FBS)业务审慎乐观看法，重申为行业首选股，维持"买入"评级及目标价780港元， 并将2025至2027年非国际财务报告准则(non-IFRS)每股盈利预测微调最多1%。腾讯上季资本开支为130 亿元人民币，少过市场预期，管理层归因于芯片供应受阻，又透露期内有租用额外计算资源用于AI研 发。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the successful conclusion of the Kuaishou parent-child IP "Little Iron's Journey" in Hangzhou, which achieved over 4 billion total views and over 10 million views for its main and preview content, marking a significant breakthrough in parent-child content dissemination [1][2]. Group 1: Program Overview - "Little Iron's Journey" features a unique blend of historical and modern themes, introducing celebrity guests and a "time travel" concept through a series of 10 micro-episodes and 6 special short films [2]. - The program allows children to experience different historical periods, including the Song Dynasty, the 1980s, and modern technology, fostering a rich cultural exploration [4]. Group 2: Brand Collaboration - JD.com's sponsorship of the program aligns with its brand philosophy, promoting quality time between parents and children after school through its "Stationery 3:30" initiative [4]. - The program emphasizes the emotional connection between parents and children through the use of various historical stationery, illustrating a multi-generational narrative of learning and growth [4]. Group 3: Content Strategy - The core competitive advantage of "Little Iron's Journey" lies in its authentic experiences, moving away from scripted narratives to encourage children to express themselves freely in unfamiliar settings [5]. - The program integrates deep cultural and tourism elements, enhancing the storytelling experience by showcasing local heritage and natural beauty [6]. Group 4: Emotional Engagement - The program explores the differences in parenting styles between the 1980s and today, advocating for reduced reliance on electronic devices and promoting outdoor exploration and hands-on creativity [8]. Group 5: Platform Ecosystem - The success of "Little Iron's Journey" is supported by Kuaishou's robust ecosystem, which includes a diverse array of influencers and a strong user base focused on parent-child education [9][10]. - The program's influencer strategy combines established stars with emerging talents, ensuring broad audience reach and effective brand integration [9].

美银证券表示，计及中国芯片供应情况及季度资本开支波动的影响后，目前预测腾讯今明两年资本开支 将分别达到750亿及900亿元人民币。对于腾讯AI应用"元宝"日均活跃用户表现较同业字节跳动"豆包"及 阿里巴巴-W(09988)"夸克"落后，该行则认为是由于各企业推广策略不同，而非模型能力的差异，目前 仍相信腾讯得益于微信主导地位及完整内容与服务移动生态系统所支持，其在中国AI代理竞争中有优 势。 美银证券发布研报称，看好腾讯控股(00700)核心业务增长前景清晰，认同管理层对金融科技及企业服 务(FBS)业务审慎乐观看法，重申为行业首选股，维持"买入"评级及目标价780港元，并将2025至2027年 非国际财务报告准则(non-IFRS)每股盈利预测微调最多1%。腾讯上季资本开支为130亿元人民币，少过 市场预期，管理层归因于芯片供应受阻，又透露期内有租用额外计算资源用于AI研发。 ...

Market Performance - The major U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones down 1.07%, S&P 500 down 0.83%, and Nasdaq down 1.21% on November 18 [1] - The Dow Jones has fallen 4.48% over four consecutive trading days since reaching a new high, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have dropped 4.16% and 3.41% respectively during the same period [1] Technology Sector Concerns - There are growing concerns regarding AI technology stocks, despite leading companies maintaining profit growth; investors are questioning the sustainability of large capital expenditures and their future profit growth potential [1] - Major tech stocks such as Amazon and AMD fell over 4%, while Microsoft and Nvidia dropped over 2%, indicating a broader market retreat in the tech sector [1] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - The absence of key economic data has made it difficult for the Federal Reserve and the market to accurately assess economic conditions and inflation trends, leading to a significant increase in hawkish sentiments within the Fed [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has dropped from approximately 66% to below 50% [2] Gold Price Support Factors - Multiple factors, including potential Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, central bank demand, and risk aversion, are expected to continue supporting gold prices [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 235.40 for the Hong Kong stock and USD 243.20 for the US stock [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 31.2 billion for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, which was better than the expected decline of 8.6%. The strong performance was attributed to the continued robust growth of AI cloud revenue and a less severe decline in core advertising revenue [1]. - The company has disclosed three major AI business lines, collectively generating approximately RMB 10 billion in revenue, accounting for about 40% of the core total revenue, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 50% [1]. - The management expects improvements in core revenue and non-GAAP operating profit in Q4 2025, driven by the ongoing transformation of the advertising system and a lower year-on-year comparison base [1]. Summary by Sections AI Business Growth - The AI cloud revenue grew by 21% year-on-year to RMB 6.2 billion, with subscription revenue from AI high-performance infrastructure increasing by 128% [2]. - The three newly disclosed AI business lines include: 1. Smart Cloud Infrastructure: Revenue of RMB 4.2 billion, up 33% year-on-year. 2. AI Applications: Revenue of RMB 2.6 billion, up 6% year-on-year. 3. AI Native Marketing Services: Revenue of RMB 2.8 billion, up 262% year-on-year [3]. Autonomous Driving - The company's autonomous driving service, "萝卜快跑," has achieved 100% unmanned operation in domestic cities, with a total order volume of 3.1 million in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 212% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to RMB 19.4 billion, RMB 21.5 billion, and RMB 24.1 billion, respectively, reflecting a 19.7% increase for 2025 due to better-than-expected Q3 performance [5]. - The valuation window has been shifted to 2026, with a target price of USD 243.20 and HKD 235.40 based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation [28].

中银国际发表报告指，百度第三季业绩符合预期，新披露的AI驱动业务收入按年增长50%至96亿元，证 明了公司在AI商业化端的成果。该行指，公司正在持续获取其坚定执行AI策略而带来的正向效益的释 放，叠加由其充足的现金而潜在可能的加速股东反馈计划，维持"买入"评级，美股目标价由133美元上 调至137美元。 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba Hong Kong Entrepreneurs Fund (AEF) celebrates its 10th anniversary with total investments reaching $94 million (approximately HKD 733 million) and an expanded portfolio from 6 to 84 global startup projects [1] - AEF aims to be a significant player in the local startup ecosystem, promoting innovation both locally and globally [1] - The fund has nurtured 7 unicorn companies, including the first Hong Kong unicorn to be listed on NASDAQ, and has attracted over $2.8 billion in co-investments while creating over 2,200 jobs in Hong Kong [1] Investment Strategy - AEF operates similarly to traditional venture capital funds, seeking outstanding projects and leveraging Alibaba's resources to ensure their success [1] - After exiting investments, AEF reinvests all principal and returns into the next generation of innovative projects, creating a sustainable growth cycle [1] Global Expansion and Impact - AEF has expanded its reach to the Greater Bay Area and is gradually moving towards global markets, aiming to attract top startups and talent to Hong Kong [1] - The fund's efforts contribute to solidifying Hong Kong's position as a global innovation hub [1] Leadership Perspective - Alibaba co-founder and chairman Joe Tsai emphasizes AEF's commitment to driving innovation and fostering entrepreneurial spirit in Hong Kong and globally since 2015 [1] - The organization is dedicated to supporting the next generation of entrepreneurs and building a sustainable ecosystem that creates real value for society in a digital future [1]