Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a surge, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and improving demand, particularly in the rare earth and industrial metals markets [3][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) saw a price increase of over 1.8% as of September 3, with a trading volume exceeding 12 million yuan within the first 15 minutes of opening [1]. - The ETF attracted significant inflows of 75.6 million yuan over the past two days, reaching a new high of 207 million yuan in total assets as of September 2 [1]. - Key constituent stocks included silver, which hit the daily limit, while Western Gold and Zhongjin Gold rose by 5.81% and 4.79%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The industrial metals sector is benefiting from rising copper prices due to supply constraints, with a projected decrease of 52,500 tons in electrolytic copper production in September [3]. - The lithium market is facing oversupply, but high-cost production is being phased out, which may lead to price recovery [3]. - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market remains strong, supported by macroeconomic factors and supply disruptions [3]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is positioned for upward price movement due to low valuations and improving market conditions, with a potential "bull market" beginning [3][4]. - The strategic importance of metals like rare earths and lithium is highlighted in the context of global competition and domestic policy shifts aimed at optimizing production factors [4]. - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF provides diversified exposure to various metals, including copper (25.3%), aluminum (14.2%), and rare earths (13.8%), which helps mitigate investment risks [4].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the net profit forecast for Nanshan Aluminum International for 2025/2026 by 7%/9% to $374 million/$500 million due to increased production and sales, as well as rising prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's revenue reached approximately $597 million, a year-on-year increase of 41.0%, while the profit attributable to shareholders was about $248 million, up 124.2% year-on-year [1] - The increase in performance was primarily driven by higher sales prices, which exceeded expectations [1] - The alumina sales volume in 1H25 was 1.127 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, with an average selling price of $529 per ton, up 36.9% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - The operating cost for alumina in 1H25 was $260 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, mainly due to rising raw material prices [2] - The gross profit margin improved to 50.9%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.7 percentage points, with gross profit rising by 70.1% [2] Group 3: Tax and Dividend Policy - Starting January 1, 2025, the company will adhere to the OECD's global anti-base erosion rules, increasing its income tax rate to 15%, up approximately 6 percentage points from 2024 [3] - The company announced its first interim dividend post-listing, with a payout ratio of about 20% to reward shareholders [3] Group 4: Production Capacity and Market Position - As of August 2025, the company has established alumina production capacity of 3 million tons per year, with the second phase of a new project expected to be operational in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026 [4] - Upon completion of the second phase, the company will become the largest alumina producer in Southeast Asia, enhancing its market influence in the region [4] Group 5: Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from cost advantages due to abundant bauxite and coal resources in Indonesia, along with logistical efficiencies from expanding a deep-water port [5] - The project is located in the Karangbata Economic Zone, which offers a 20-year tax incentive, allowing the company to serve the entire Southeast Asian market [5] - The three major shareholders possess strong industry advantages across the alumina production and supply chain, facilitating synergy and complementary strengths [5]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the net profit forecast for Nanshan Aluminum (600219) for 2025/2026 by 7%/9% to $374 million/$500 million due to increased production and sales as well as rising prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's revenue reached approximately $597 million, a year-on-year increase of 41.0%, while the profit attributable to shareholders was about $248 million, up 124.2% year-on-year [1] - The increase in performance was primarily driven by higher sales prices [1] - The alumina sales volume in 1H25 was 1.127 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, with an average selling price of $529 per ton, up 36.9% year-on-year [2] - The operating cost per ton of alumina was $260, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, mainly due to rising raw material prices [2] - The gross profit margin reached 50.9%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 70.1% [2] Group 2: Tax and Dividend Policy - Starting January 1, 2025, the company will comply with the OECD's global anti-base erosion rules, increasing its income tax rate to 15%, up approximately 6 percentage points from 2024 [3] - The company announced its first interim dividend post-listing, with a payout ratio of about 20% to reward shareholders [3] Group 3: Production Capacity and Market Position - As of August 2025, the company has established alumina production capacity of 3 million tons per year, with the second phase of a new project expected to be operational in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026 [4] - The company is set to become the largest alumina producer in Southeast Asia following the second phase capacity launch, enhancing its market influence in the region [4] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from cost advantages due to abundant bauxite and coal resources in Indonesia, along with logistical efficiencies from expanding a deep-water port [5] - The project is located in the Karangbata Economic Zone, which offers a 20-year tax incentive, allowing alumina products to serve the entire Southeast Asian region [5] - The three major shareholders possess strong industry advantages across the alumina production and supply chain, facilitating synergy and complementary strengths [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit showing modest growth, indicating a resilient operational environment despite some fluctuations in quarterly results [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.084 billion yuan, up 0.51% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 7.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.026 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 24.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.02% [2]. Production and Sales - The company maintained stable production levels, with an electrolytic aluminum output of 585,400 tons, remaining flat year-on-year. The alumina output increased by 9.76% to 1,199,900 tons. The self-generated electricity was approximately 6.602 billion kWh, and the anode carbon output was 272,600 tons, up 1.38% year-on-year [2]. - The sales of key products were robust, with external sales of electrolytic aluminum and alumina increasing by approximately 2% and 7% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Cost Control and Integration - The company achieved significant cost control through integrated development in the aluminum industry chain, with the average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum at approximately 20,250 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 2.8% year-on-year, and alumina at approximately 3,700 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 6% year-on-year [3]. - The integrated cost of electrolytic aluminum remained stable at 13,900 yuan/ton. The company effectively managed cost increases in anode carbon due to regional advantages and price adjustments [3]. - The company is progressing well with a green low-carbon efficiency enhancement project for 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, utilizing advanced energy-saving technologies, with the first batch of aluminum ingots expected by December 2025 [3]. Investment Outlook - The company's strategy of "resource self-sufficiency + technological leadership" is expected to provide strong support for stable growth in future performance. Earnings per share are projected to be 1.03 yuan and 1.21 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 7.36 and 6.24 based on the closing price on August 29 [4].

智通财经APP讯，中国宏桥(01378)公布，2025年9月2日耗资约9.42亿港元回购3665万股股份。 ...

Group 1 - The report details the changes in the registered capital of China Aluminum Corporation as of August 31, 2025, indicating no increase or decrease in the registered capital, which remains at RMB 13,211,666,110 for both securities 601600 and 02600 [1][2] - The total registered capital at the end of the month is RMB 17,155,632,078, with no changes reported in the issued shares or treasury shares for both securities [1][2] - The number of issued shares for security 601600 remains at 13,211,666,110, and for security 02600, it remains at 3,943,965,968, with no changes in the total issued shares [1][2] Group 2 - The report confirms that there are no changes in the share options, warrants, or convertible bonds related to the issuer's share option plan, indicating stability in the company's equity structure [2] - There are no additional changes reported regarding the issued shares or treasury shares, reinforcing the consistency in the company's capital management [2]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company after the acquisition of Hongtuo Industrial, positioning it as a leader in the electrolytic aluminum and alumina industry [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - The acquisition of Hongtuo Industrial for 63.52 billion yuan will transform the company into a fully integrated player in the aluminum industry, enhancing its production capabilities and market position [1][3]. - Hongtuo Industrial is a leading integrated aluminum producer in China, with significant production capacities in alumina (19 million tons) and electrolytic aluminum (6.459 million tons) [2][40]. - The company is expected to maintain high dividend yields post-acquisition, with projected net profits of 23.44 billion yuan in 2026, leading to a potential dividend yield of 6.3% to 6.9% depending on the payout ratio [3][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established in 2000 and listed in 2010, plans to acquire 100% of Hongtuo Industrial by May 2025 for 63.52 billion yuan, marking a significant shift from aluminum processing to a fully integrated aluminum production model [1][10]. Financial Performance - Hongtuo Industrial's revenue for 2024 is projected at 149.29 billion yuan, a 15.8% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 18.15 billion yuan, reflecting a 168.7% growth [2][42]. - The company's revenue from aluminum processing is expected to grow, but it has faced pressure from intense competition, leading to a projected net loss of 1.9 billion yuan in 2025 without the acquisition [3][5]. Production Capacity and Strategy - The report highlights a strategic shift in production capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, where electricity costs are lower due to abundant hydropower resources, which will help reduce production costs [2][54]. - The planned capacity transfer includes 44.8 thousand tons in 2025, 24.1 thousand tons in 2026, and 83.1 thousand tons in 2027, ultimately increasing Yunnan's capacity to 3.008 million tons by 2027 [55]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is set to become the second-largest electrolytic aluminum and alumina producer in China, following China Aluminum, with a clear competitive advantage due to its integrated production model [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand-supply dynamics in the aluminum industry, which are expected to support stable pricing and profitability [3][43]. Dividend Potential - The company is projected to become a high-dividend stock post-acquisition, with a historical dividend payout ratio increasing from 48% in 2021 to an expected 63.4% in 2024 [3][43].

牛市之下，很多投资标的都展示出了不错的投资机会。 最近，全球最大电解铝巨头的中国宏桥表现也堪称漂亮，股价持续单边波动上涨，年内至今以累计大涨达到了1.36倍。而如果从2024年初算起，其股价不 到两年甚至飙涨了4.7倍（前复权），丝毫不逊色于当下热度很高的AI和芯片概念龙头。 目前其总市值来到了2460亿港元，且PE估值仅有8.7倍。 | | ■ 01378 分时 多日 日K 周K 月K 章K 华K 1分 3分 5分 10分 15分 30分 v 5天:5分K v 品示 × ◎ ■× ◎ ○ ▽ VS FID ■ | | 图价 分析 | | 资讯 · 评论 · | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (0) (x) MA v MA5: 34.966 * MA10: 32.230 . MA20: 28.017 = MA30: 26.015 = MA61: MA120: MA250 高度 | 200 | 01378 中国宏桥 25.680 t +0.240 +0.94% | | | | 37,754 | | 37,754 | 四号 200 2 2 2 2 | | | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-02 氧化铝现货成交快速回落 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20620元/吨，较上一交易日变化-110元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-30元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价20490元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-160元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录20570元/吨，较上一交易日变化-100元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-75元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-01日沪铝主力合约开于20745元/吨，收于20645元/吨，较上一交易日变化-85元/吨，最 高价达20780元/吨，最低价达到20585元/吨。全天交易日成交158586手，全天交易日持仓221179手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-01，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.3万吨，较上一期变化0.3吨，仓单库存58529 吨，较上一交易日变化-100吨，LME铝库存481050吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-01SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3180元/吨，山东价格录得3150元/吨，河南价格录得 3190元/吨，广西价格 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [2][5]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant cost control effectiveness and is expected to release production capacity, which is promising for future growth [2][5]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.084 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.51% [3][5]. - The company’s integrated development in the aluminum industry chain has led to stable cost control, with the average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum at approximately 20,250 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 2.8% year-on-year [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 7.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.026 billion yuan, down 24.2% year-on-year and 3.02% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The company produced 585,400 tons of electrolytic aluminum, remaining stable year-on-year, and 1,199,900 tons of alumina, an increase of 9.76% year-on-year [5]. Production and Sales - The company’s main products saw robust production and sales, with electrolytic aluminum external sales increasing by approximately 2% year-on-year and alumina external sales increasing by approximately 7% year-on-year [5]. - The company is advancing a project to enhance the green low-carbon efficiency of 140,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, with plans to commence production by the end of 2025 [5]. Future Earnings Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 are 1.03 yuan and 1.21 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 7.36 and 6.24 times based on the closing price on August 29 [6].