新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-08 资金情绪主导，碳酸锂高位震荡 市场分析 2026-01-07，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于144000元/吨，收于142300元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化4.54%。当日 成交量为420407手，持仓量为506520手，前一交易日持仓量534999手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-7500元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单25180手，较上个交易日变化2039手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价128000-139000元/吨，较前一交易日变化6000元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价126000-134000元/吨，较前一交易日变化5750元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1755美元/吨，较前一日变化75美元/吨。 近期多空分歧加剧，但多头仍占明显上风。需求端持续超预期，2025年四季度以来磷酸铁锂企业开工率提升，储 能与新能源汽车补库需求共振，阶段性供应缺口支撑价格上行，产业库存持续去化。此外供给端干扰反复炒作， 叠加新多资金积极入场，期股联动效应显著，锂电相关股票大涨进一步提振期货市场情绪，短期形成 "逼空" 氛围。 但另一方面，短期碳酸锂涨幅过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience a rebound in 2025, with prices showing a V-shaped recovery after hitting a low of 59,000 yuan/ton in June, eventually surpassing 130,000 yuan/ton by December, marking an increase of over 120% from the low point [1][2]. Price Trends - In early 2025, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated around 75,200 yuan/ton, dropping below 70,000 yuan/ton by the end of April and reaching a low of 59,000 yuan/ton in June [1]. - By July 2025, prices began to rebound, breaking through 65,000 yuan/ton on July 14, 70,000 yuan/ton on July 21, and closing at 76,680 yuan on July 24, eventually exceeding 120,000 yuan/ton by December 23 [2]. - The price increase is attributed to a combination of factors, including strong demand from the energy storage sector and a reduction in market inventory [2][3]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The global demand for lithium carbonate is projected to reach 2 million tons by 2026, driven by the growth in electric vehicles and energy storage applications [6]. - The domestic market in China accounted for 63.3% of global power battery installations from January to October 2025, with significant contributions from leading companies [3]. - The new energy storage capacity in China exceeded 100 million kilowatts by September 2025, representing a growth of over 30 times compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [4]. Industry Performance - Companies in the lithium sector, such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, have seen significant stock price recoveries, with increases of over 160% and 173% respectively since their lows in April [3]. - Ganfeng Lithium reported a 364.02% year-on-year increase in net profit for the third quarter [3]. Future Outlook - The lithium market is expected to face uncertainties in 2026, with potential price corrections if demand from the energy storage sector does not meet expectations [7]. - The development of alternative technologies, such as sodium batteries, may introduce new dynamics to the market, although current production costs and scale are not yet comparable to lithium batteries [8].

光储、锂电、风电 20260107 我们认为 2026 年锂电中游整体价格走势，从锂电池延伸到锂矿，将呈现量利 齐增态势。固态电池、钠离子电池等新技术将持续取得重要突破。动力来看， 风电行业整体招标量下滑，但海上风电招标量提升至约 11GW。陆上风 机中标价格回暖，主机厂商盈利能力有望在一季度或上半年回暖。深远 海风电开发重要性提升，需从省管海域转向国管海域。 储能方面，国内商业模式逐步跑通，国外市场高增速带来需求高景气度， 将实现持续高增长。美国数据中心功耗激增，欧洲大储项目占据重要地 位，印度及东南亚需配套储能解决消纳问题，中东加速能源转型。 光伏方面，反内卷推动供给侧改革，低价无序竞争得到整治，落后产能 退出，产业链价格回暖。BC 电池和钙钛矿等新技术将推动下游应用提速， 并可能催生新的市场需求，如太空光伏。 尽管车补贴退坡，但新能源车销量仍将稳步增长。欧洲市场完全复苏，加速推 行电动化趋势明显。因此，我们预计全球新能源车增速为 5%-10%，而动力电 池增速超过 20%。储能需求更为旺盛，大储、户储、工商储均供不应求，预计 同比增速超过 40%，甚至达到 50%-60%。 摘要 2026 年锂电中游预 ...

Market Overview - On January 8, A-shares opened lower across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.2% at 4077.72 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.42% at 13971.89 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.63% at 3308.74 points [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw initial declines, with Huaxin Environmental falling over 4% and Zhongke Magnetic down over 3% [1] - The brain-computer interface sector was active, with Innovation Medical hitting a new high after four consecutive trading limits, and several other related stocks also rising [1] - The industrial metals sector experienced declines, with China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Jiangxi Copper all down over 2% [1] Company News - Fenglong Co., Ltd. experienced a continuous trading limit from December 25, 2025, to January 7, 2026, with a cumulative increase exceeding 100%, indicating significant market deviation and potential speculation risks [2] - Sumida plans to acquire 60 million shares of Blue Science and Technology from its controlling shareholder at a price of 6.71 yuan per share, totaling 403 million yuan, which will increase its stake to 21.72% [2] - Kecuan Technology's subsidiary has built production capacity for optical modules and completed the first silicon photonic chip trial, although it has not yet generated significant revenue [2] Industry Insights - Prit's LCP film products are suitable for use as flexible electrode materials in brain-computer interfaces, with the company being the only domestic entity to achieve significant breakthroughs in this technology [3] - The global transformer market is expected to reach $103 billion by 2031, driven by increased demand for electrical equipment and significant investments in global power grids [11] - The liquid cooling market is projected to reach $16.5 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 59% [8] Financial Projections - Zhongke Blue News expects a net profit of 1.4 to 1.43 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 366.51% to 376.51%, with revenue projected at 1.83 to 1.85 billion yuan [4] - Fuhua Co., Ltd. plans to raise up to 700 million yuan through convertible bonds for various projects, including a production base in Vietnam and energy storage systems [5] - Anpei Long intends to raise up to 544 million yuan through a targeted stock issuance for expansion projects related to pressure sensors and MEMS sensor chip development [6]

盘前要闻 1、八部门：到2027年中国人工智能关键核心技术实现安全可靠供给 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 工信部等八部门印发《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》，意见指出，到2027年，我国人工智能关 键核心技术实现安全可靠供给。意见还指出，推动智能芯片软硬协同发展，支持突破高端训练芯片、人 工智能服务器、智算云操作系统等关键核心技术。 2、锂电"反内卷"力度升级：多部门联合召开动力储能电池行业座谈会 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 1月7日，多部门联合召开动力和储能电池行业座谈会，研究部署规范产业竞争秩序相关工作。有知情人 士透露，参会企业包括国内Top10的动力电池企业、几家头部储能电池企业和集成商等，共计10余家。 有参会人士透露，此次会议总体围绕行业"反内卷"工作，包括要求企业实现控产能、管价格战、保护专 利等内容。 3、央行今日开展1.1万亿买断式逆回购操作，专家称月内将继续注入流动性 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 机构观点 央行1月8日将开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月。考虑到今日有11000亿买断式逆回购到 期，本次操作为等量续作。专家预计央行将于1月15日左右开展6个月期买断式逆回购 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities indicates that China's emerging technology industries, such as semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals, and communication equipment, are still in their early growth stages, with revenue and profitability lagging behind international leaders. However, the capital market has assigned high valuations, reflecting optimistic expectations for technological independence and industrial catch-up [1][3]. Group 1: Emerging Technology - China's emerging technology sector is characterized by significant growth potential, but it currently shows a gap in revenue and profitability compared to international leaders. The market has high valuations, indicating optimism for technological self-sufficiency and domestic substitution opportunities [1][3]. - Internet and application sector leaders have profit forecasts comparable to their overseas counterparts, with more attractive valuation levels. The acceleration of AI applications is expected to benefit internet platform companies, leading to valuation recovery and growth resonance [3][4]. Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - The advanced manufacturing sector in China is relatively mature, with a complete industrial system and significant cost efficiency, establishing strong global competitiveness. Key areas like lithium batteries lead globally in scale and profitability, while wind power, though less profitable, also has low valuations [4]. - There is a broad space for value re-evaluation in advanced manufacturing, particularly for companies with strong profitability and deep global expansion. Investment opportunities may arise from high-quality manufacturing firms expanding internationally [4]. Group 3: Consumer Sector - In the consumer sector, leading Chinese companies in product consumption, such as high-end liquor and beverages, demonstrate strong profitability, but their growth is heavily reliant on domestic demand, with insufficient globalization compared to international leaders [5]. - The service consumption sector is still in its early development stage, with lower scale and profitability compared to overseas leaders. The consumer sector overall presents high value-for-money from a valuation perspective, with potential growth opportunities in service consumption and globally competitive product brands [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the electric new energy, transportation equipment, communication equipment, electronics, and service consumption sectors. These companies are expected to accelerate their catch-up with international leaders or maintain their leading positions due to significant innovation advantages and strong outbound momentum [6]. - Specific recommendations include advanced manufacturing leaders benefiting from strong profitability and global competitive advantages, as well as emerging technology leaders in communication equipment, electronics, and innovative pharmaceuticals that are expected to see rapid profit growth [6].

1月6日上午，安庆经开区年产20GWh动力电池项目开工，拉开今年重大项目建设序幕，全力冲刺新年"开门红"。安庆市人民政府副市长章洪 海宣布项目正式开工，安庆经开区管委会主任杨旭东、得壹能源总经理李中兵分别致辞。 得壹能源总经理李中兵表示，项目实现"拿地即开工"，充分体现了园区务实高效的营商服务。企业将加快建成数字化、智能化的全球领先动 力电池工厂，为安庆汽车产业发展贡献力量。 年产20GWh动力电池项目由安徽宜创能源科技有限公司投资建设，项目总投资约48.5亿元，新建生产厂房及其配套设施约30万平方米，建设 动力电池生产线，预计达产后可形成年产20GWh动力电池的生产能力，年产值不低于100亿元。 | 顾 | | --- | | 回 | | 期 | | 往 | | 01 | ｜ | 扩产持续！多个锂电材料项目更新！ | | --- | --- | --- | | 02 | ｜ | 鹏辉能源推进港股上市！ | | 03 | ｜ | 20GWh储能订单落地！亿纬年度合作超89GWh | | 04 | ｜ 举办！ | 2026起点锂电两轮车换电大会暨轻型动力电池鲁班奖颁奖典礼定档2026年7月深圳 | 锂电交流群— ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a legal dispute involving Guotou Ruijin Fund and its star fund manager Shi Cheng, focusing on the implications of investment style drift and potential breaches of contract in the context of financial advisory agreements [1][4]. Group 1: Legal Dispute Overview - Guotou Ruijin Fund is facing a lawsuit initiated by investor Li Zhihua over a financial advisory contract dispute, with the court date set for January 13 [1]. - The core issue revolves around whether Shi Cheng's shift in investment strategy constitutes a breach of contract or a legitimate market-driven adjustment [1][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Performance - Shi Cheng initially gained significant returns by heavily investing in the renewable energy sector from 2020 to 2021, but faced substantial losses as the sector declined in 2022 due to oversupply and price wars [4]. - In response to losses, Shi Cheng shifted his focus to AI and robotics, which has reportedly yielded positive results for the funds under his management [4]. Group 3: Compliance and Contractual Obligations - There are concerns regarding Shi Cheng's adherence to the investment constraints outlined in the fund contracts, particularly regarding the proportion of investments in renewable energy [5][8]. - For instance, the Guotou Ruijin New Energy Mixed Fund was required to invest at least 80% of its non-cash assets in renewable energy-related securities, yet its reported holdings fell significantly below this threshold [5]. Group 4: Additional Controversies - The funds also faced scrutiny for exceeding the stipulated limits on Hong Kong Stock Connect investments, with reported holdings surpassing the 50% cap in several products [7]. - The legal complexities include determining the boundaries of "breach" and "fault," particularly in relation to how investment categories are defined and the impact of market risks on investor losses [8].

证券日报网讯1月7日，雅化集团（002497）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司对电池新技术的发 展持续保持关注，未来各种技术路线将长期共存，相互补充。锂电池因其能量密度和充放电速率优势在 3C、动力电池、低空经济和具身智能等场景仍有广阔的应用和发展空间，同时伴随着固态电池的发 展，未来锂电池的能量密度和安全性还会更上一层楼，公司看好锂电行业的长期发展。 ...

ICC锂电结算指导价： | 品名 | 1月6日 | 1月7日 | 环比上涨 | 上月均价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 锂精矿 | 1700 | 1800 | 100 | 1249 | | (6.0%) | | | | | | 电池级碳酸锂 | 12. 7 | 13.7 | 1 | 10. 2 | | (99.5%/辉石) | | | | | | 氢氧化锂 | 10. 3 | 11. 3 | 1 | 8. 58 | | (56.5%相颗粒) | | | | | | 磷酸铁锂 | 4. 71 | 4. 71 | 0 | 4. 05 | | (动力型) | | | | | | 三元材料 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 0 | 16. 76 | | (811) | | | | | 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电、封面：图虫创意 行情变化： 1月7日，ICC电池级碳酸锂（99.5%）现货结算指导价格为 137000 元 /吨 ，较上一工作日 上涨 10000 元 ；电池级氢氧化锂（ 56.5%粗颗 ...