调整后如何看锂电产业链的投资机会 20251123 摘要 锂电板块虽受资金面扰动，但属阶段性调整，行业一季度排产预期稳定， 储能需求强劲，动力电池订单未见明显波动，海外市场需求亦保持高位， 支撑跨年排产景气度。 储能领域成本传导信心较强，动力领域短期承压，但历史经验表明成本 最终将向下游传导。六氟价格谈判预计将随散单趋势上涨，明年长单价 格或进一步抬升。 当前锂电板块估值较低，是较好的配置机会。中期来看，储能需求上调 逻辑不变，且本轮价格和盈利修复可持续两年以上，中长期逻辑依然良 好。 短期关注六氟、铁锂等紧张且有涨价预期的环节，中长期关注隔膜、负 极铜箔等盈利分位偏低、无明显扩产迹象的材料环节，以及固态及钠电 方向的投资机会。 锂电设备行业基本面向好，订单持续高增长，头部厂商已为明年设备需 求定点，二线厂商亦上调扩产计划，预计明年全行业扩产维持 30%以上 增长率。 Q&A 最近锂电板块的股价波动较大，您对此有何看法？ 上周锂电产业链的股价波动主要是预期上的波动，并非基本面的实质变化。尽 管年底各环节价格谈判进入关键阶段，但整体产业链保持乐观态度。近期高工 锂电峰会等事件可能引发资金面扰动，但我们认为这次调 ...

化工板块今日（11月18日）深度回调，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）全天弱势，盘中场 内价格一度跌超4%，截至收盘，跌3.46%。 从估值方面来看，当前化工板块或迎来较好配置时机。数据显示，截至昨日收盘，化工ETF（516020） 标的指数细分化工指数市净率为2.46倍，位于近10年来44.23%分位点的相对低位，中长期配置性价比凸 显。 展望后市，中信建投表示，在行业资本开支放缓，周期拐点将近的大背景下，建议关注受益反内卷有望 率先格局受益的品种，包括农药、尿素、纯碱、长丝、有机硅、氨纶等板块；另外降息周期中我国逆周 期政策发力助力内需回暖，建议关注聚氨酯、煤化工、石油化工、氟化工等板块；并且，发展新质生产 力、自主可控和产业升级是大国博弈背景下的坚定选择，新材料仍然是中国化工的主要发展方向之一， 重点关注半导体材料、OLED材料、COC材料以及其他高附加值产品的持续发展。 如何把握化工板块反弹机遇？借道化工ETF（516020）布局效率或更高。公开资料显示，化工ETF （516020）跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，全面覆盖化工各个细分领域。其中近5成仓位集中于大市 值龙头股，包括万华化学 ...

Group 1: Solar Power - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules remain stable, supported by strong overseas demand for battery cells, which positively influences upstream price trends [1][2] - The industry chain's price stability is attributed to robust overseas orders and favorable policy environments, with short-term prices expected to remain firm [2] Group 2: Wind Power - Domestic and overseas bidding remains high, with Goldwind signing a contract for a 3GW onshore wind project in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to improve the company's profitability [3] - The announcement of a 1GW offshore wind project in Shandong indicates ongoing bidding and construction of significant offshore wind projects, likely boosting industry sentiment [3] Group 3: Energy Storage - Global large-scale energy storage bidding data is strong, with rising prices for energy storage cells confirming robust downstream demand [4] - Domestic policies are increasingly supporting the independent energy storage market, while European electricity prices are rising during the gas replenishment cycle, leading to a recovery in household storage demand [4] - Emerging markets are showing higher-than-expected household storage demand, suggesting a focus on large-scale and overseas household storage expectations [4] Group 4: Hydrogen Energy - The launch of a green methanol demonstration project in Jilin and a focus on hydrogen energy heavy trucks in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region indicate positive trends in the hydrogen energy sector [5] - Global shipping is undergoing a green transition driven by IMO emission reduction targets and European carbon taxes, highlighting the promising future of green methanol [5] - The hydrogen energy industry is developing well, with reduced financing difficulties and national support for new technology research and development [5] Group 5: Power Equipment - North America's power shortages may lead to chip accumulation, as reported by Microsoft's CEO regarding idle chips due to insufficient power and data center capacity [6] - Technology companies face a dilemma between securing long-term power contracts and the risk of future losses due to breakthroughs in renewable energy technology [6] - The short-term development of AI in North America is constrained by power supply issues, presenting opportunities for power equipment exports [6] Group 6: Electric Vehicles - The price of hexafluoropropylene continues to rise, with expectations for it to exceed 150,000 yuan, driven by strong demand [8] - Companies like Tianci Materials and Jiangsu Zhonghang have signed supply agreements, indicating a focus on maintaining supply in a tight balance [8] - Recommendations include focusing on segments experiencing price increases, such as electrolytes, anode graphite, copper foil, and lithium carbonate [8]

Summary of Tianqi Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Chemical manufacturing, specifically focusing on hexafluoropropylene (六氟) production Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **Q3 Performance**: The company reported poor performance in Q3, primarily due to low sales prices, particularly in July, which hit a historical low. Sales prices improved in August and September, but contracts with major clients limited immediate price adjustments [2][4][10]. - **Sales Volume**: Q3 sales volume was approximately 12,500 tons, with October sales around 4,200 tons. The forecast for November and December is around 4,000 tons per month [4][5]. - **Inventory Levels**: Inventory has been significantly reduced to a few hundred tons, indicating strong demand and production capacity utilization [2][5]. Market Trends - **Price Trends**: The price of hexafluoropropylene has seen a significant increase, reaching around 100,000 to 110,000 CNY per ton. The expectation is for prices to remain stable or increase slightly through the end of the year [6][10][12]. - **Demand Forecast**: The demand for hexafluoropropylene is projected to exceed 300,000 tons next year, with supply expected to be tight due to production capacity constraints [7][10]. Production Capacity and Expansion - **Current Production Capacity**: The company currently operates at a production capacity of 3,600 to 3,800 tons per month, with plans to expand capacity by an additional 15,000 tons by the end of next year [15][16]. - **New Production Line**: A new production line is expected to contribute an additional 6,000 tons by September next year, enhancing overall supply capabilities [16]. Cost Structure - **Cost Management**: The new production line is expected to reduce costs by approximately 6,000 to 7,000 CNY per ton compared to older lines due to improved automation and efficiency [18][62]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The cost of raw materials, particularly lithium carbonate, has increased, but the overall impact on production costs is expected to be manageable [38][59]. Long-term Strategy - **New Product Development**: The company is actively developing new products, including lithium sulfide and solid-state electrolytes, with plans for production lines to be operational by early next year [65][66]. - **Market Positioning**: The company aims to maintain a competitive edge by aligning production capacity with market demand and ensuring cost efficiency through technological advancements [52][53]. Risks and Considerations - **Market Volatility**: The company acknowledges the potential for market fluctuations and the need for careful management of pricing strategies, especially in light of recent price increases [10][12]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The approval process for new production capacity is stringent, which may limit the speed of expansion in response to market demand [52][56]. Additional Important Information - **Profitability**: The company reported a net loss of approximately 40 million CNY in Q3, primarily attributed to losses in the hexafluoropropylene segment and an unsuccessful hedging strategy involving lithium carbonate [32][34]. - **Long-term Contracts**: The company has a long-term contract structure that may limit immediate price adjustments but provides stability in revenue [10][12]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's current performance, market dynamics, production strategies, and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - Tianji Co., Ltd. (002759) announced on October 31 that due to the strong demand in the hexafluorine market, the supply of products is currently insufficient, leading to a pricing strategy that is negotiated monthly based on market conditions while ensuring supply to core customers [1] Group 1 - The company is experiencing high demand for hexafluorine products, resulting in supply shortages [1] - The pricing strategy for core customers is flexible and subject to monthly negotiations, reflecting actual market prices [1] - The company aims to provide certain discounts to core customers while maintaining supply stability [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the lithium battery sector is experiencing strong demand and production growth, with expectations for significant increases in both battery and material segments in 2026, surpassing market expectations [1][2] - Battery production is benefiting from energy storage demand, with a 10% month-on-month increase in production in September and a further 10% increase in October, leading to an annual demand growth forecast of 40% [1] - Major battery manufacturers are expected to see a shipment volume increase of over 25% in 2026, significantly better than the previous forecast of 15-20% [1] Group 2 - The global energy storage demand is projected to grow by 40% to 770 GWh in 2026, driven by independent storage explosions in China and project rushes in the US [2] - European and emerging markets are expected to maintain high growth rates, with energy storage battery demand reaching 550 GWh in 2025, a 70% year-on-year increase [2] - The overall lithium battery demand for 2025 has been revised to a 40% growth forecast, with a 25%+ growth expected in 2026 [2] Group 3 - Material leaders are operating at full capacity, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to lead to price increases, particularly for hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate [3] - The price of hexafluorophosphate has already increased significantly, with spot prices rising to 100,000 yuan per ton, exceeding expectations [3] - Price adjustments are anticipated for other materials, including separators and anode materials, with some price increases already implemented for smaller clients [3]

Group 1: PTA Industry Insights - The PTA industry is expected to see significant improvement in profitability due to limited new capacity and high industry concentration, with CR7 reaching 76% [1] - Most PTA companies have been operating at a loss since 2022, with the current PTA price spread being less than 100 yuan, indicating deep losses across the industry [1] - The production companies have a strong incentive to raise prices due to the current loss situation, with an estimated loss of about 300 yuan per ton of PTA [1] Group 2: Lithium Battery Materials - The solid-state battery concept is gaining traction, and the chemical sector is experiencing a strong rise due to increasing demand for lithium batteries, leading to a gradual recovery in supply-demand dynamics [2] - Some segments are entering a tight balance phase, which may lead to non-linear changes in profitability and potential price increases [2] - The chemical ETF and related stocks have shown significant gains, with the chemical ETF rising by 2.97% and key stocks like Guangdong Hongda and Yuntianhua seeing increases of over 7% [2] Group 3: Chemical Industry Index - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index account for 44.49% of the index, indicating a concentrated market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new energy sector is showing signs of stabilization and recovery after nearly four years of deep adjustment, with significant increases in relevant indices since the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The China Securities New Energy Index has seen a cumulative increase of 43% since the second half of the year, with the lithium battery index rising by 17.12% in September and the new energy vehicle index increasing by 16.22%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which only rose by 2.59% during the same period [1]. - The current market dynamics indicate a potential shift from a short-term recovery to the beginning of a new upward cycle in the new energy sector [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core contradictions in the new energy sector have shifted, with prices and profits across various segments at historically low levels, but positive changes are emerging on the supply side due to market clearing mechanisms and "anti-involution" policies [2]. - There are signs of price increases across the battery supply chain, indicating a reversal in supply and demand after nearly four years of adjustment [2]. - Demand for lithium batteries remains strong, with a compound annual growth rate of 20% to 30% supported by diverse applications beyond just electric vehicles, including electric ships, robotics, and energy storage [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The lithium battery industry is positioned at a new starting point of "volume and price increase," with expectations of a supply-demand gap narrowing from 2024, leading to a sustained price increase cycle [2]. - The solid-state battery technology has made significant advancements, with breakthroughs in key technical challenges, potentially allowing for a range of over 1000 kilometers for next-generation batteries, significantly enhancing energy density and overall performance [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and competitive positions in high-end manufacturing and technology sectors, while also optimizing the portfolio through in-depth research [5][6]. - The current portfolio is balanced between growth sectors driven by AI and industries in a "turnaround" phase, such as new energy and military industries, aiming to capture both valuation recovery and profit enhancement opportunities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The renewable energy sector is showing signs of stabilization and recovery after nearly four years of deep adjustment, with significant increases in indices related to lithium batteries and electric vehicles, outperforming the broader market [1][2] Industry Overview - The current state of the renewable energy sector is characterized by "positive changes" and a "reversal of difficulties," with prices and profits at historical lows, indicating a shift in the core contradictions of the industry [2] - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing price increases, suggesting a reversal in supply and demand after four years of adjustment [2] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for lithium batteries remains strong, with applications expanding beyond electric vehicles to include electric ships, robots, low-altitude economy, energy storage, sanitation vehicles, and heavy trucks, supporting a compound annual growth rate of 20% to 30% [2] - The industry is expected to face a supply-demand gap starting in 2024, leading to a sustained price increase cycle [2] Lithium Battery Industry Insights - The lithium battery industry is at a new starting point characterized by simultaneous increases in volume and price, driven by diverse demand [2] - Leading companies in the lithium battery supply chain are operating at full capacity, indicating a tightening supply situation [3] Solid-State Battery Developments - Solid-state batteries are viewed as the "future battery" of the renewable energy industry, with recent breakthroughs in technology significantly enhancing performance, including potential range improvements [3] - However, solid-state batteries have not yet achieved mass production and lack commercial competitiveness due to low lithium prices [3] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on maintaining a clear framework based on company fundamentals and industry competition, emphasizing high-end manufacturing and technology sectors [4][5] - The current portfolio is balanced between growth sectors like AI and industries in a "reversal of difficulties" phase, such as renewable energy and military [5] - In AI investments, the focus is on efficiency-driven internet leaders, new application-driven companies, and cloud service providers, while military investments are driven by increasing domestic and international demand [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The lithium battery materials market is experiencing a price increase, driven by strong demand for energy storage and year-end stocking sentiment [1][7] - The consumer battery market has shown signs of recovery, with expectations for increased demand due to the upcoming release of Meta glasses [1][11] Company Insights Siyuan Electric - Siyuan Electric reported Q3 revenue of 5.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 30%, and profit of 899 million yuan, up 46%, exceeding market expectations [3][5] - The company's overseas revenue share has increased to over 33%, up from 25% in the previous year, contributing to its strong performance [5] - Future profit projections for Siyuan Electric are between 2.8 billion to 3 billion yuan for 2025, and over 3.7 billion yuan for 2026, with a sustained order growth rate of over 30% [6] Shangtai Technology - Shangtai Technology is expected to achieve a dual increase in volume and profit in Q4, benefiting from rising lithium battery material prices [1][3][7] Other Companies - Zhi Jian Electronics is highlighted for its competitive battery for Meta glasses, which is expected to drive demand in the supply chain [4][11] - The wind power sector, particularly companies like Zhongtian and Dajin Heavy Industry, is noted for its stable long-term outlook despite recent tax policy changes [12][14][15] Market Dynamics - The recent price increases in lithium battery materials include hexafluorophosphate exceeding 75,000 yuan and lithium iron phosphate showing a small increase of about 500 yuan [7] - Export control policies have created a favorable environment for overseas sales, with conservative estimates suggesting a profit of at least 10,000 yuan per ton for exporting companies [8] - The negative sentiment from export controls is expected to turn positive as companies report earnings next year [8] Future Trends - The negative impact of VAT refund policy changes on the wind power sector is limited, with internal rates of return (IRR) for projects only slightly decreasing [12][14] - The robot industry is anticipated to grow significantly between 2025 and 2026, with upcoming product launches acting as catalysts for growth [17] - The solid-state battery sector is gaining attention, with collaborations indicating potential for future advancements [19] Investment Opportunities - The current market conditions present a good opportunity for investors to build positions in companies like Siyuan Electric and Shangtai Technology, with expectations of sustained performance into Q4 and beyond [2][11] - The wind power sector remains a focus for investment, particularly in offshore wind projects, which are expected to see significant development in the coming years [15][16]