东吴证券认为：天赐材料预计2025年归母净利润11~16亿元，同比增长127%~230%，业绩超出市场预 期。第四季度电解液出货量同比高增长，预计2026年出货量将超过100万吨，同比增长40%。电解液盈 利能力显著提升，六氟价格的上涨将对盈利产生显著影响。正极板块亏损缩窄，日化业务稳定贡献利 润。公司上调了2025-2027年的归母净利润预测，维持"买入"评级。 分业务来说： 1)电解液业务：2025年第四季度出货量同比高增长，预计2026年出货量将超过100万吨，同比增长 40%。 2)电解液盈利能力：2025年第四季度单吨净利显著提升，六氟价格的上涨将对盈利产生显著影响。 3)正极板块：亏损缩窄，预计2026年出货量20万吨，单吨盈利恢复至0.05-0.1万元。 4)日化业务：2025年第四季度预计贡献0.6亿元利润，预计2026年稳定增长。 （注：本文内容基于朝阳永续AI技术生成，文中相关盈利预测数据均来自朝阳永续盈利预测数据库） 风险提示：本文所示数据或案例仅供参考之用，不能作为未来投资依据。投资股票有风险，市场波动、 公司业绩、政策因素等都可能导致股票价格波动。请您在投资前充分了解相关信息，并根据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong inflow of incremental funds has driven the recent market rally, contributing to the Shanghai Composite Index achieving eight consecutive days of gains, and there is a recommendation to actively position for the upcoming spring market rally, focusing on both technology and cyclical sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has achieved eight consecutive days of gains, marking the third occurrence since the "9.24" market rally in 2024 [2]. - The market has shown signs of recovery from previous adjustments, with three major factors influencing the market's positive outlook diminishing [2]. Group 2: Fund Inflows - December saw an unusual net inflow into broad-based ETFs, with a total net inflow of 110.6 billion yuan, primarily driven by the A500 ETF, which accounted for 101.9 billion yuan, or 92.2% of the total [3]. - The net inflow into the A500 ETF is likely to be new capital rather than a reallocation from other ETFs, indicating a strong demand for this specific fund [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by PPI recovery and anti-involution policies, alongside a weak dollar and increased demand for AI hardware, presents investment opportunities in various sectors, including chemicals, new energy materials, and electronic communication products [4]. - The investment strategy should focus on technology and PPI, with attention to new marginal changes, such as the strengthening of domestic demand policies and the potential for growth in commercial aerospace and satellite industries [5]. Group 4: Sector Allocation - Recommended sector allocations include technology sectors such as military, media (gaming), AI applications, and core AI hardware, as well as PPI beneficiaries like photovoltaic, chemicals, steel, and power [5]. - Long-term holdings should consider gold and optimized high-dividend stocks as part of the investment strategy [5].

12月11日，"招财杯"ETF实盘大赛系列直播邀请到了鹏华基金指数与量化投资部基金经理闫冬一起探讨 《"反内卷"下的化工、新能源》。 闫冬表示：在当前阶段，如果相关板块出现一定调整，仍可考虑逢低布局。据了解，明年不少机构仍有 较强的权益配置需求，预计那些处于低位且明年预期向好的板块，大概率会受到机构资金的青睐。 为持续向投资者普及ETF基础知识，招商证券携手十大基金公司，联合全景网共同举办2025年招商证 券"招财杯"ETF实盘大赛系列直播，旨在帮助投资者提升资产配置与风险管理能力，促进ETF市场的健 康发展。 对于明年PPI的趋势，市场预期虽不完全一致，但普遍认为同比增速有望在明年下半年的某个时点转 正，更乐观的观点则认为可能提前至二季度。无论如何，当前我们已处于PPI同比逐步修复的过程中， 这对于许多周期板块而言是一个较好的投资时点。 新能源板块的复苏或许意味着新一轮周期上行的开始，目前可能只是起步阶段。光伏板块因供需矛盾更 为突出，修复速度可能稍慢一些，但明年也有望迎来拐点。 处于低位且预期向好的板块，有望受到机构资金青睐 全景网：您如何看待当前行情？对于当下投资者的策略与交易，尤其是持有新能源、化工等 ...

调整后如何看锂电产业链的投资机会 20251123 摘要 锂电板块虽受资金面扰动，但属阶段性调整，行业一季度排产预期稳定， 储能需求强劲，动力电池订单未见明显波动，海外市场需求亦保持高位， 支撑跨年排产景气度。 储能领域成本传导信心较强，动力领域短期承压，但历史经验表明成本 最终将向下游传导。六氟价格谈判预计将随散单趋势上涨，明年长单价 格或进一步抬升。 当前锂电板块估值较低，是较好的配置机会。中期来看，储能需求上调 逻辑不变，且本轮价格和盈利修复可持续两年以上，中长期逻辑依然良 好。 短期关注六氟、铁锂等紧张且有涨价预期的环节，中长期关注隔膜、负 极铜箔等盈利分位偏低、无明显扩产迹象的材料环节，以及固态及钠电 方向的投资机会。 锂电设备行业基本面向好，订单持续高增长，头部厂商已为明年设备需 求定点，二线厂商亦上调扩产计划，预计明年全行业扩产维持 30%以上 增长率。 Q&A 最近锂电板块的股价波动较大，您对此有何看法？ 上周锂电产业链的股价波动主要是预期上的波动，并非基本面的实质变化。尽 管年底各环节价格谈判进入关键阶段，但整体产业链保持乐观态度。近期高工 锂电峰会等事件可能引发资金面扰动，但我们认为这次调 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant pullback on November 18, with the chemical ETF (516020) declining by 3.46% and intra-day prices dropping over 4% [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including Tianqi Lithium and New Chemical Materials, faced substantial losses, with Tianqi Materials hitting the limit down and New Chemical Materials dropping by 11.22% [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent price corrections are normal, as the lithium battery materials sector is expected to see improved profitability in the coming year, indicating a potential rebound in demand and supply dynamics [3] Group 2 - The chemical ETF (516020) has seen significant net inflows, with over 3.52 billion CNY in net subscriptions over the last five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The current valuation of the chemical sector is relatively low, with the ETF's underlying index price-to-book ratio at 2.46, positioning it in the 44.23 percentile over the past decade, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [3] - Future investment strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from de-involution, such as pesticides, urea, and organic silicon, as well as new materials like semiconductor materials and OLED materials, which are crucial for China's chemical industry development [4][5]

Group 1: Solar Power - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules remain stable, supported by strong overseas demand for battery cells, which positively influences upstream price trends [1][2] - The industry chain's price stability is attributed to robust overseas orders and favorable policy environments, with short-term prices expected to remain firm [2] Group 2: Wind Power - Domestic and overseas bidding remains high, with Goldwind signing a contract for a 3GW onshore wind project in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to improve the company's profitability [3] - The announcement of a 1GW offshore wind project in Shandong indicates ongoing bidding and construction of significant offshore wind projects, likely boosting industry sentiment [3] Group 3: Energy Storage - Global large-scale energy storage bidding data is strong, with rising prices for energy storage cells confirming robust downstream demand [4] - Domestic policies are increasingly supporting the independent energy storage market, while European electricity prices are rising during the gas replenishment cycle, leading to a recovery in household storage demand [4] - Emerging markets are showing higher-than-expected household storage demand, suggesting a focus on large-scale and overseas household storage expectations [4] Group 4: Hydrogen Energy - The launch of a green methanol demonstration project in Jilin and a focus on hydrogen energy heavy trucks in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region indicate positive trends in the hydrogen energy sector [5] - Global shipping is undergoing a green transition driven by IMO emission reduction targets and European carbon taxes, highlighting the promising future of green methanol [5] - The hydrogen energy industry is developing well, with reduced financing difficulties and national support for new technology research and development [5] Group 5: Power Equipment - North America's power shortages may lead to chip accumulation, as reported by Microsoft's CEO regarding idle chips due to insufficient power and data center capacity [6] - Technology companies face a dilemma between securing long-term power contracts and the risk of future losses due to breakthroughs in renewable energy technology [6] - The short-term development of AI in North America is constrained by power supply issues, presenting opportunities for power equipment exports [6] Group 6: Electric Vehicles - The price of hexafluoropropylene continues to rise, with expectations for it to exceed 150,000 yuan, driven by strong demand [8] - Companies like Tianci Materials and Jiangsu Zhonghang have signed supply agreements, indicating a focus on maintaining supply in a tight balance [8] - Recommendations include focusing on segments experiencing price increases, such as electrolytes, anode graphite, copper foil, and lithium carbonate [8]

Summary of Tianqi Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Chemical manufacturing, specifically focusing on hexafluoropropylene (六氟) production Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **Q3 Performance**: The company reported poor performance in Q3, primarily due to low sales prices, particularly in July, which hit a historical low. Sales prices improved in August and September, but contracts with major clients limited immediate price adjustments [2][4][10]. - **Sales Volume**: Q3 sales volume was approximately 12,500 tons, with October sales around 4,200 tons. The forecast for November and December is around 4,000 tons per month [4][5]. - **Inventory Levels**: Inventory has been significantly reduced to a few hundred tons, indicating strong demand and production capacity utilization [2][5]. Market Trends - **Price Trends**: The price of hexafluoropropylene has seen a significant increase, reaching around 100,000 to 110,000 CNY per ton. The expectation is for prices to remain stable or increase slightly through the end of the year [6][10][12]. - **Demand Forecast**: The demand for hexafluoropropylene is projected to exceed 300,000 tons next year, with supply expected to be tight due to production capacity constraints [7][10]. Production Capacity and Expansion - **Current Production Capacity**: The company currently operates at a production capacity of 3,600 to 3,800 tons per month, with plans to expand capacity by an additional 15,000 tons by the end of next year [15][16]. - **New Production Line**: A new production line is expected to contribute an additional 6,000 tons by September next year, enhancing overall supply capabilities [16]. Cost Structure - **Cost Management**: The new production line is expected to reduce costs by approximately 6,000 to 7,000 CNY per ton compared to older lines due to improved automation and efficiency [18][62]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The cost of raw materials, particularly lithium carbonate, has increased, but the overall impact on production costs is expected to be manageable [38][59]. Long-term Strategy - **New Product Development**: The company is actively developing new products, including lithium sulfide and solid-state electrolytes, with plans for production lines to be operational by early next year [65][66]. - **Market Positioning**: The company aims to maintain a competitive edge by aligning production capacity with market demand and ensuring cost efficiency through technological advancements [52][53]. Risks and Considerations - **Market Volatility**: The company acknowledges the potential for market fluctuations and the need for careful management of pricing strategies, especially in light of recent price increases [10][12]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The approval process for new production capacity is stringent, which may limit the speed of expansion in response to market demand [52][56]. Additional Important Information - **Profitability**: The company reported a net loss of approximately 40 million CNY in Q3, primarily attributed to losses in the hexafluoropropylene segment and an unsuccessful hedging strategy involving lithium carbonate [32][34]. - **Long-term Contracts**: The company has a long-term contract structure that may limit immediate price adjustments but provides stability in revenue [10][12]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's current performance, market dynamics, production strategies, and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - Tianji Co., Ltd. (002759) announced on October 31 that due to the strong demand in the hexafluorine market, the supply of products is currently insufficient, leading to a pricing strategy that is negotiated monthly based on market conditions while ensuring supply to core customers [1] Group 1 - The company is experiencing high demand for hexafluorine products, resulting in supply shortages [1] - The pricing strategy for core customers is flexible and subject to monthly negotiations, reflecting actual market prices [1] - The company aims to provide certain discounts to core customers while maintaining supply stability [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the lithium battery sector is experiencing strong demand and production growth, with expectations for significant increases in both battery and material segments in 2026, surpassing market expectations [1][2] - Battery production is benefiting from energy storage demand, with a 10% month-on-month increase in production in September and a further 10% increase in October, leading to an annual demand growth forecast of 40% [1] - Major battery manufacturers are expected to see a shipment volume increase of over 25% in 2026, significantly better than the previous forecast of 15-20% [1] Group 2 - The global energy storage demand is projected to grow by 40% to 770 GWh in 2026, driven by independent storage explosions in China and project rushes in the US [2] - European and emerging markets are expected to maintain high growth rates, with energy storage battery demand reaching 550 GWh in 2025, a 70% year-on-year increase [2] - The overall lithium battery demand for 2025 has been revised to a 40% growth forecast, with a 25%+ growth expected in 2026 [2] Group 3 - Material leaders are operating at full capacity, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to lead to price increases, particularly for hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate [3] - The price of hexafluorophosphate has already increased significantly, with spot prices rising to 100,000 yuan per ton, exceeding expectations [3] - Price adjustments are anticipated for other materials, including separators and anode materials, with some price increases already implemented for smaller clients [3]

Group 1: PTA Industry Insights - The PTA industry is expected to see significant improvement in profitability due to limited new capacity and high industry concentration, with CR7 reaching 76% [1] - Most PTA companies have been operating at a loss since 2022, with the current PTA price spread being less than 100 yuan, indicating deep losses across the industry [1] - The production companies have a strong incentive to raise prices due to the current loss situation, with an estimated loss of about 300 yuan per ton of PTA [1] Group 2: Lithium Battery Materials - The solid-state battery concept is gaining traction, and the chemical sector is experiencing a strong rise due to increasing demand for lithium batteries, leading to a gradual recovery in supply-demand dynamics [2] - Some segments are entering a tight balance phase, which may lead to non-linear changes in profitability and potential price increases [2] - The chemical ETF and related stocks have shown significant gains, with the chemical ETF rising by 2.97% and key stocks like Guangdong Hongda and Yuntianhua seeing increases of over 7% [2] Group 3: Chemical Industry Index - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index account for 44.49% of the index, indicating a concentrated market [3]