点击按钮▲立即收听 " 拉尼亚更像手法复杂的幕后之手，悄然拨动全球经济的琴弦 —— 你手中的咖啡价格、一顿火锅的成本，都将与它隐隐相连。 " 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 大寒，是我国大部分地区一年中最冷的时候。 然而，降温在南方却来得意外突然：1月19日，冰冻、寒潮、暴雪三预警齐发，长三角地区的不少学校已经开始停课。就在前几天，市民们还在晒 太阳，慵懒又温暖。 当我们站在2026年的起点，回顾过去半年的天气，用一句热梗来形容再合适不过了："就像跳楼机"，突然升空又急速落地。 夏天全民的"高温记忆"尚未消散，北极全年平均气温已创下自1900年以来的最高纪录；国庆后，一场突袭全国的急促寒潮，又为多地按下"速冻 键"。 就在人们以为凛冬已至，12月的气温却再度"跳跃"。冬至前，新疆、内蒙古等地暴雪纷飞的同时，不少 南方沿海城市的气温竟重回20℃以上，整 个2025年的平均气温，创下 1961年以来历史新高。 很快，回暖的势头就将被元旦前后的一轮冷空气打断，长江中下游地区迎来了降 温雨雪天 气…… 在这剧烈的起伏中，国家气候中心揭开了幕后"推手"之一的面纱：自2025年10月起，我国已进入"拉尼娜状态"。 ...

禽畜养殖下游补充库存，深加工消费同比下降 截至1月15日，生猪自繁自养模式下的养殖利润为25.77元／头，较上周升高26元／头，外购仔猪模式下 养殖利润为-100.5元／头，较上周升高29元／头。蛋鸡养殖利润-0.04元／斤，略高于前周的-0.28元／ 斤。饲料厂通过拍卖玉米补充库存，物理库存天数以上涨为主，但是还未出现集中补库的情况。截至1 月15日，全国饲料企业平均库存可用天数为31.15天，较上周增加1.05天，环比上涨3.49%，同比下跌 6.71%。 截至1月14日，全国12个地区96家主要玉米加工企业库存总量为359万吨，环比增加1.41%，虽然库存增 加，但还是近3年同期最低的，东北地区深加工企业继续提价收购，华北地区玉米到货量平稳。1月8日 至1月14日，全国149家主要深加工企业共消耗玉米135.59万吨，比上周减少2.59万吨，低于2025年同期 的141万吨。截至1月9日，黑龙江地区玉米制乙醇利润在-742元／吨，低于2025年同期的-377元／吨， 玉米淀粉加工利润在-79元／吨，低于2025年同期的5元／吨。尽管淀粉价格小幅上涨，但是玉米价格偏 强，加工亏损扩大，淀粉库存高，下游采购 ...

Core Viewpoint - The event aims to establish a platform for high-quality agricultural and marine products from Zhuanghe City to connect with high-end supermarkets, enhancing market expansion and optimizing the industry chain [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The promotional event for high-quality agricultural and marine products took place on January 16 at Wanda Plaza in Zhuanghe City [1] - The event included the unveiling of the "Wan Jia Yi Zhan" and signing ceremonies for production and sales cooperation [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - This initiative marks a new phase of regular and institutionalized connections between Zhuanghe's high-quality agricultural and marine products and high-end supermarkets [1] - It represents a significant step in the local implementation of the rural revitalization strategy [1] Group 3: Industry Characteristics - Zhuanghe City boasts prominent agricultural and marine resource endowments, adhering to an ecological priority development approach [1] - The city has established a diverse industrial system that includes high-quality fruits and vegetables, specialty aquatic products, and green grains and oils [1]

五常大米、西湖龙井、丹东草莓、烟台苹果……一个个耳熟能详的名字背后，是我国这些年快速发展的 生态产品区域公用品牌。不少地方通过整合区域生态资源、统一质量标准、强化品牌溢价，将分散的生 态优势转化为市场竞争优势，为地方经济注入了新动能，也为消费者提供了高品质的绿色产品。 生态产品区域公用品牌，是在一个具有特定自然环境、人文历史或生产加工历史的区域内，由相关组织 注册和管理，并授权若干农业生产经营者共同使用、具有良好生态效果的农产品品牌。它们多以"产地 名+产品名"的形式，标识在标准化、产业化的土特产包装上。为了强品牌、兴产业，我国不少地区结 合区域特色，通过"标准+认证"等手段，形成集质量、标准、服务、信誉、效益于一体的区域品牌建设 模式，受到国内外市场和社会公认。 公用品牌搭桥，生态红利到户。江西"赣南脐橙"、贵州"黔货出山"、福建"武夷山水"等不少标杆品牌， 带动了当地特色产业升级和农民增收。比如，"武夷山水"2024年平台销售额突破2.2亿元，目前已形成 国内深耕、海外突破的立体化网络；"赣南脐橙"2025年品牌价值连续11年位列水果类第一，194万亩橙 园带动赣州100多万名从业人员增收致富，"链"动起 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the US-UK trade negotiations is the disagreement over "non-tariff barriers," particularly regarding the adoption of US standards and recognition of US certification bodies by the UK [1][4] - The US has intensified pressure on the UK to align with its standards, which could jeopardize the UK's food industry and its cooperation with the EU [1][4] - The UK government has classified food standards as a "red line" in negotiations, but there are concerns that the UK may concede on other US demands [1][4] Group 2 - The US and UK signed the "Technology Prosperity Agreement" in September, aimed at enhancing cooperation in AI, quantum computing, and civil nuclear energy, but the agreement has been paused due to ongoing trade barrier disputes [1][4] - The UK's current certification model, managed by a single non-profit body (UKAS), differs significantly from the decentralized US system, which could lead to competitive pressures and potential compromises on public service obligations [4][5] - The UK is seeking to strengthen trade relations with the EU, which may reduce the likelihood of accepting US conditions in the ongoing trade negotiations [5]

农业咨询机构AgRural1月19日表示，截至上周四（1月15日），巴西2025/26年度大豆收割率为2%，较 前一周增长1.4个百分点，并略高于去年同期的1.7%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 巴西农业咨询机构Safras预计，巴西2026年大豆出口量将达到1.05亿吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Guosheng Fundamental High-Frequency Index is stable, with a current value of 129.5 points (previous value: 129.4 points), and a week-on-week increase of 6.1 points. The long-short signal factor for interest rate bonds is 3.2% (previous value: 3.1%) [1][9]. - Industrial production maintains stable growth, with the industrial production high-frequency index at 128.0, and a week-on-week increase of 4.8 points, the same as the previous period [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the decline in the high-frequency index of commercial housing sales has widened, the growth rate of the high-frequency index of infrastructure investment has narrowed, the decline in the high-frequency index of exports has expanded, and the growth rate of the high-frequency index of consumption remains unchanged [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month-on-month forecast of CPI is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%); the month-on-month forecast of PPI is -0.1% (previous value: -0.1%) [1][9]. - The high-frequency index of inventory, transportation, and financing has increased, with the growth rate expanding [2][10]. Summary by Directory Total Index - The Guosheng Fundamental High-Frequency Index is stable, with a current value of 129.5 points (previous value: 129.4 points), and a week-on-week increase of 6.1 points. The long-short signal factor for interest rate bonds is 3.2% (previous value: 3.1%) [1][9] Production - The electric furnace operating rate has increased to 63.5% (previous value: 61.9%); the polyester operating rate is 87.2% (previous value: 87.5%); the semi-steel tire operating rate is 73.4% (previous value: 65.9%); the all-steel tire operating rate is 62.9% (previous value: 58.0%); the PX operating rate is 90.5% (previous value: 89.1%) [16] Real Estate Sales - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has slightly increased, reaching 18.5 million square meters (previous value: 16.9 million square meters); the land premium rate of 100 large and medium-sized cities is 1.4% (previous value: 0.4%) [29] Infrastructure Investment - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt has slightly increased to 27.2% (previous value: 25.4%) [42] Exports - The RJ/CRB index has increased to 304.3 points (previous value: 301.8 points) [45] Consumption - The average daily movie box office has decreased to 45.777 million yuan (previous value: 53.561 million yuan) [54] CPI - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.0 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.9 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 5.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.6 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.8 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white-striped chickens is 17.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.7 yuan/kg) [61] PPI - The ex - warehouse price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port (produced in Shanxi) is 699.6 yuan/ton (previous value: 690.7 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 64.8 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 61.6 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 13,232.0 US dollars/ton (previous value: 13,048.7 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 3,184.3 US dollars/ton (previous value: 3,093.7 US dollars/ton) [65] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in first-tier cities is 39.161 million person - times (previous value: 40.448 million person - times); the road logistics freight rate index is 1052.3 points (previous value: 1051.9 points); the number of domestic flights is 12,736.9 (previous value: 12,494.3) [79] Inventory - The soda ash inventory has slightly increased to 1.57 million tons (previous value: 1.541 million tons) [90] Financing - The net financing of local government bonds is 65.57 billion yuan (previous value: 117.66 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 39.99 billion yuan (previous value: 131.04 billion yuan) [101]

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 01 月 19 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： 研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 市场消息及观点 :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日似 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日似 | 涨跌 | | 成 | | | | | | あ | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.79 | 109.13 | 0.66 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.94 | 7.84 | 0.1 ...

Group 1 - China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $6.1 billion in November, bringing the total to approximately $680 billion, while global holdings reached a record high of over $9.36 trillion [1][8] - The reduction in US Treasury holdings by China is a strategic adjustment focused on foreign exchange reserve security and long-term planning, rather than an emotional reaction or a complete economic decoupling from the US [1][4] - China's foreign exchange reserves are intended to support economic security, emphasizing stability and diversification rather than seeking short-term high returns [4][6] Group 2 - The US debt has surpassed $30 trillion, with interest payments consuming significant fiscal resources, leading to concerns about the sustainability of holding excessive US debt due to increased uncertainty [4][6] - The use of the dollar as a geopolitical tool by the US has prompted countries, including China, to reduce their reliance on dollar-denominated assets to mitigate financial risks [6][31] - China has been increasing its gold reserves, reaching 7.415 million ounces by the end of December 2025, as part of a strategy to enhance the resilience of its foreign exchange reserves [6][8] Group 3 - Japan increased its US Treasury holdings by $2.6 billion to $1.2 trillion, driven by currency management, yield supplementation, and strategic considerations related to US military presence [12] - The UK also increased its holdings by $10.6 billion to $888.5 billion, focusing on maintaining its financial center status and risk hedging [14][16] - Other countries like Canada and Norway have increased their US Treasury holdings for short-term liquidity management and strategic balance, reflecting diverse motivations behind these decisions [16][18] Group 4 - The ongoing reduction of US Treasury holdings by China has sparked political reactions in the US, particularly from figures like Navarro, who express concerns over the implications for US financial stability [22][24] - The US agricultural sector's dependence on China for soybean exports highlights the potential economic repercussions of trade threats, suggesting that such measures may harm US interests more than intended [26][28] - The global increase in US Treasury holdings, while appearing as an endorsement of the dollar, reflects a lack of alternatives in the current economic landscape, with countries exploring diversified asset allocations as a challenge to US financial dominance [31][33]