重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 美豆偏强带动，豆粕冲高回落 （豆粕周报2.24-2.27） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 巴西大豆产区天气短期正常 | 偏空 | 巴西大豆产区天气短期良 | | | | | 好。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆震荡回升，中国采购美 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计震荡偏弱，中 | | | 豆和南美大豆丰产交互影响 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期回落，油厂压 | 偏多 | 需求短期偏淡，油厂开机预 | | | 榨量维持低位 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For corn, short - term price is strongly supported by limited supply, and in the long - term, focus on import and domestic auction policies due to supply gap [3] - For starch, short - term price will remain strong with low inventory and downstream restocking, and long - term price depends on downstream consumption rhythm [3] - For sugar, international factors like India's production cut and ISO's forecast adjustment, along with domestic import policy discussions, make the market oscillate strongly, but there is hedging pressure [5] - For cotton, low initial inventory, expanding textile production, good downstream profits, consumption - promotion policies, and reduced planting area in Xinjiang make it suitable for long - term investment [8] - For eggs, near - month contracts won't break last year's lows, but delayed chicken culling will suppress prices in the rainy season, so an anti - arbitrage strategy is recommended [11] - For apples, post - Spring Festival sales are slow, with stable prices for average - quality fruit and firm prices for high - quality fruit [13] - For pigs, post - festival is a consumption off - season, with mid - term supply pressure and long - term turning point support. Focus on factors like出栏体重, second - fattening, and frozen product storage [13] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/13 to 2026/02/27, corn prices in some regions increased slightly, and starch prices remained stable in some regions. Corn's basis changed by - 8, and starch's processing profit changed by - 19 [2] - **Market Analysis**: After the Spring Festival, corn supply is short - term limited, and price may rise if there is no selling pressure. Starch price will remain strong in the short - term and depends on downstream consumption in the long - term [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/13 to 2026/02/27, sugar prices in some regions increased slightly, basis decreased by 29, and import profit increased by 29 [4] - **Market Analysis**: International factors and domestic import policy discussions affect the market, with hedging pressure on the upper side [5] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/13 to 2026/02/27, 3128 cotton price increased and then decreased, with a net decrease of 35, and 32S spinning profit increased by 87 [15] - **Market Analysis**: Low initial inventory and good demand prospects make cotton suitable for long - term investment [8] Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/13 to 2026/02/27, egg prices in some regions decreased, basis decreased by 21, and substitute prices changed slightly [11] - **Market Analysis**: Post - festival restocking drives a small price rebound. Near - month contracts won't break last year's lows, but delayed culling will suppress prices in the rainy season [11] Apples - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/13 to 2026/02/27, apple prices remained stable, and inventory increased in some regions [12][13] - **Market Analysis**: Post - Spring Festival sales are slow, with stable prices for average - quality fruit and firm prices for high - quality fruit [13] Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/13 to 2026/02/27, pig prices in some regions decreased, and basis decreased by 90 [13] - **Market Analysis**: Post - festival is a consumption off - season, with mid - term supply pressure and long - term turning point support. Focus on factors like出栏体重, second - fattening, and frozen product storage [13]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of February 27, 2026, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 22.8x and PB at 1.9x, positioned at the historical 83rd and 53rd percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.5x and PB at 1.3x, at the historical 58th and 37th percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14.1x and PB at 1.5x, at the historical 64th and 38th percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 38.8x and PB at 2.7x, at the historical 71st and 63rd percentiles [2] - The CSI 1000 PE is at 52.3x and PB at 2.8x, at the historical 75th and 63rd percentiles [2] - The National Index 2000 PE is at 64.8x and PB at 3.0x, at the historical 79th and 72nd percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 43.3x and PB at 5.7x, at the historical 43rd and 66th percentiles [2] - The Sci-Tech 50 PE is at 165.6x and PB at 6.5x, at the historical 95th and 72nd percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index/CSI 300 PE ratio is 3.1 and PB ratio is 3.8, at the historical 29th and 62nd percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Automation Equipment, Retail, Electronics (Semiconductors), and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Industrial Metals, Minor Metals, Defense, Electronics (Semiconductors), and Communications [2] - The White Goods industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2] Sector Insights New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream polysilicon futures prices fell by 4.8% and spot prices by 3.7%, with weak demand affecting sentiment [2] - In the battery materials sector, cobalt and nickel prices increased by 3.2% and 2.2% respectively, while lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices rose by 19.7% and 16.8% [2] Technology TMT - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index decreased by 2.0%, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Index increased by 4.8% [3] - The DRAM output value index rose by 3.6%, with NAND prices increasing by 5.6% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar fell by 1.1%, while futures prices increased by 0.4% [3] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.4%, while glass prices rose by 1.0% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs fell by 7.7%, and wholesale pork prices decreased by 3.6% [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor saw a slight increase of 0.03% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Heavy truck sales increased by 46.0% year-on-year in January 2026, driven by tax incentives and subsidies [3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.2% to $72.52 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions [3] - The price of thermal coal increased by 4.0% to 751 RMB/ton, while coking coal prices fell by 2.0% to 1501 RMB/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the overall volatility of the commodity options market decreased. The trading volume of agricultural product options increased due to contract roll - over. Some varieties in the black and non - ferrous sectors experienced increased volatility and higher open interest. The geopolitical risks over the weekend led to increased expected volatility in the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and chemical sectors. Considering the high implied volatility of call options, a bull call spread strategy can be considered for long positions, and the strike price of the long call option can be gradually raised to reduce the maximum risk of the position [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The overall volatility of the commodity options market decreased after the holiday. The trading volume of agricultural product options increased during the contract roll - over. Some varieties in the black and non - ferrous sectors saw increased volatility and higher open interest. Due to weekend geopolitical risks, the expected volatility of precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and the chemical sector increased. A bull call spread strategy can be used for long positions, and the strike price of the long call option can be gradually raised to reduce the maximum risk of the position [5]. - Market data shows that the trading volume of the entire market decreased by 0.67% to 5,512,888.0, while the open interest increased by 0.09% to 7,701,848. Among different sectors, the trading volume of agricultural products increased by 0.06% to 1,422,480.75, and the open interest decreased by 0.14% to 2,507,785; the trading volume of energy and chemicals decreased by 0.43% to 2,419,537.25, and the open interest increased by 0.23% to 3,144,995; the trading volume of the black sector increased by 3.82% to 488,594.0, and the open interest increased by 0.13% to 766,022; the trading volume of precious metals decreased by 2.71% to 307,045.75, and the open interest increased by 0.2% to 309,152; the trading volume of non - ferrous and new energy decreased by 1.33% to 875,230.25, and the open interest increased by 0.46% to 973,894 [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The report provides the implied volatility, 60 - day percentile of implied volatility, skew, and 60 - day percentile of skew for various commodity options, including corn, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, etc. For example, the implied volatility of corn is 9.97%, and the skew is 7.54% [12]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.61 Option Data for Each Commodity - For each commodity option (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the report details the closing price, price change, remaining trading days, trading volume (including call and put trading volume, and total trading volume), trading volume PCR, open interest (including call and put open interest, and total open interest), open interest PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility (HV - 10 days and HV - 20 days), and skew of the main and secondary contracts, as well as the overall contract data [13 - 74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to market rumors that the customs has extended the clearance of South American soybeans by 10 - 20 days, the price of soybean meal has increased significantly with increased positions. From a fundamental perspective, the recent improvement in the export sales of US soybeans and the expectation of China's increased procurement of US soybeans have driven up the price of CBOT soybeans. For the domestic market, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure is increasing, but on the other hand, as the price of US soybeans rises, the import cost increases, and the price of protein meal may be bottoming out [10]. - The protein meal price may be bottoming out based on the fundamental assessment [11]. - The trading strategy suggestions for both unilateral and arbitrage are to wait and see [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information** - From February 12th to February 19th, the US exported 410,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 35.65 million tons in the current year, a year - on - year decrease of 7.83 million tons. Among them, 80,000 tons were exported to China, and the cumulative export to China in the current year was 10.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.08 million tons [10]. - As of February 21st, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 32.3%, 4.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year and 4.3 percentage points lower than the five - year average [10]. - As of the week of February 20th, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 11.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 million tons; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 5.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,000 tons [10]. - In January, the forecast for the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The stock - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season [10]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - Valuation indicators include the US soybean 5 - 7 spread, soybean import profit, rapeseed import cost, and soybean - rapeseed meal spread. The overall change of these indicators is not significant, and the soybean import profit has recovered [11]. - Driving factors analysis: The increase in the estimated Brazilian production, the increase in China's procurement of US soybeans, and the reduction of the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed are negative factors; the high inventory of domestic pigs and laying hens is a positive factor [11]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestions** - Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price** - The document provides the spot price trends of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu from 2022 to 2026 [21][22]. - **Basis of the Main Contract** - It shows the basis trends of the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract from 2022 to 2026 [24][25]. - **Inter - monthly Spread** - The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal 5 - 9 months and rapeseed meal 5 - 9 months from 2022 to 2026 are presented [27][28]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread** - The spreads between the soybean meal May - rapeseed meal May and soybean meal September - rapeseed meal September from 2022 to 2026 are provided [30][31]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress** - The planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 are shown [36][37][39][40]. - **Weather Conditions** - The precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina compared with the same period of the year are presented, along with the weather conditions summary of soybean - producing areas as of February 20th [42][44][45][47]. - **US Soybean Export Progress** - The current market - year cumulative signing volume, next - year market - year cumulative signing volume, current market - year export volume to China, and next - market - year export volume to China of US soybeans are provided [53][54][56][57][59][60]. - **China's Oil Mill Pressing Situation** - The soybean and rapeseed pressing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are shown [62][63]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation** - The monthly export volume and export volume to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025 are presented [65][66]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Shipment Volume to China** - The weekly and cumulative shipment volumes of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 are provided [68][69][71][72]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory** - The port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseed in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are shown [76][77]. - **Protein Meal Inventory** - The inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are presented [79][80]. - **Protein Meal Pressing Profit** - The pressing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 are provided [82][83]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand** - The cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2022 to 2026 are shown [86]. - **Breeding Profit** - The average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 are presented [88][89].

Core Viewpoint - The "Hainan Fresh Products" agricultural brand enhancement three-year action plan has been launched, aiming to establish over 100 sub-brands by 2028 and promote high-quality development of the brand [2][3] Group 1: Brand Development Strategy - The "Hainan Fresh Products" is the first provincial multi-category agricultural regional public brand in Hainan, which has transitioned from government-led initiatives to market-oriented operations since its establishment in 2022 [2] - Currently, there are 61 regional public brands, 65 enterprise brands, and 75 product brands under the "Hainan Fresh Products" umbrella, with 110 enterprises authorized to use the brand [2][3] Group 2: Action Plan and Timeline - The three-year action plan will be divided into three phases: 2026 will focus on standard construction, 2027 on brand marketing, and 2028 on brand enhancement [2][3] - Five key projects will be implemented: optimization of management mechanisms, boutique cultivation, brand certification, brand marketing, and brand protection [3] Group 3: Specific Initiatives - The optimization of management mechanisms will enhance provincial coordination and leverage the professional platform of the supply chain company under Hainan Agricultural Reclamation Group [3] - The boutique cultivation project will focus on creating high-quality products through technological innovation and building a brand management system [3] - The brand certification initiative will involve third-party certification to strengthen brand traceability and credibility [3] - The brand marketing project aims to expand sales channels for advantageous agricultural products and promote "Hainan Fresh Products" nationally and internationally [3] - The brand protection initiative will establish a legal protection system and enhance brand communication and cultural integration [3]

Group 1 - Guangdong province is focusing on high-quality agricultural and rural development, with various cities presenting unique plans and tasks to align with provincial goals [3][4][6][7] - The province is emphasizing the integration of manufacturing and service industries, as well as the "Hundred Million Thousand Project" for county-level industrial integration [5][6][10][12] Group 2 - Shantou has emerged as one of the most popular tourist destinations during the 2026 Spring Festival, attracting approximately 7.15 million visitors and generating around 7.16 billion yuan in tourism revenue [14][15][16] - The city utilized its cultural heritage and local cuisine to enhance its appeal, showcasing a strong performance in the tourism sector [14][16] Group 3 - The current market for freshly made lemon tea in China is projected to reach 11 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15.8%, positioning Guangdong as a leader in this segment [30][31][32] - The rise of specialized lemon tea shops has transformed this beverage from a mere accompaniment in restaurants to a standalone popular category [34][35] Group 4 - Yangxi County is aiming for a total energy installed capacity exceeding 20 million kilowatts and a 20% increase in fishery output this year, focusing on marine economy, health food, and tourism development [41][42][44] - The county's development strategy includes a "2+4+X" model for high-quality industrial growth [44] Group 5 - The city of Maoming has launched a campaign to promote its lychee industry, emphasizing the cultural significance of local traditions and the importance of seasonal agricultural practices [46][47][49] - The initiative aims to enhance community engagement and preserve local heritage through the promotion of lychee-related events [48][50]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced the suspension of tariffs on certain Canadian agricultural products from March 1 until the end of 2026, indicating a thaw in trade tensions between China and Canada following a preliminary agreement during Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to China in January [1] Group 1: Tariff Suspension Details - China will suspend the 100% tariff on Canadian canola meal and peas, as well as the 25% tariff on lobsters and crabs [1] - The announcement is seen as a direct implementation of the outcomes from Carney's visit to China [1] Group 2: Oilseed and Other Products - The announcement did not address the previously discussed canola seed tariff issue, which Carney indicated could be reduced from 84% to approximately 15% by March 1 [1] - The Ministry of Commerce stated that the investigation into Canadian canola seeds will conclude on March 9 [1] - Chinese buyers have reportedly begun to book Canadian canola seed shipments for March delivery, signaling optimism regarding potential tariff reductions [1] Group 3: Market Implications - The announcement did not cover other products such as canola oil and pork, but there is speculation that further adjustments may be announced before March 1 [1] - In 2024, China is expected to be the second-largest export market for Canadian canola seeds, making the tariff policies significantly impactful on Canadian agriculture and export revenues [1]

Core Viewpoint - The corn market is experiencing a slow recovery post-holiday, with prices stabilizing at high levels due to various supply and demand factors [4][6][8]. Market and Judgment - The corn market is expected to remain in a state of oscillation, with a focus on quality grain and regional price differentiation. Short-term support is provided by the resumption of processing enterprises and the replenishment of stocks [6][10]. - The market is characterized by a "bottom support and upward resistance" pattern, with trading activity recovering slowly post-holiday [8][9]. Upstream Production - The recovery of planting and selling progress is lagging, with supply tightness observed in the main production areas. The Northeast region is facing challenges due to adverse weather conditions [8][9]. - The processing industry is operating at a steady rate, but the demand from downstream sectors remains weak, leading to cautious purchasing behavior [9][10]. Storage and Trade - The trade dynamics are influenced by the limited flow of quality grain and the low inventory levels in the market. The overall trading pattern is characterized by quick turnover and limited accumulation [8][9]. - Recent auctions of state reserves have seen high transaction rates, indicating sufficient supply but limited volume for future auctions [27]. Downstream Demand - Demand from the feed industry is showing signs of weakness, with livestock and poultry inventories remaining stable but not providing significant support for corn prices [9][10]. - The processing sector's profitability is under pressure, with the need for improvement in downstream product margins to stimulate demand [21][22]. Weather - Weather conditions in the Northeast are expected to improve, which may alleviate storage pressures and enhance selling progress in the coming weeks [12][10]. External Market - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures are fluctuating within a range of 425-445 cents per bushel, reflecting a lack of strong directional trends despite active trading [6][10]. - Global supply remains ample, with Brazil's corn production outlook being positive, which may limit upward price movements [12][10].

Group 1 - The stock price of Dole Food Company (DOLE.US) increased significantly, closing at $16.19 on February 27, 2026, up 3.06% from the previous trading day, outperforming the Dow Jones (-1.23%) and Nasdaq (-1.02%) [1] - The company reported a robust revenue growth for the fiscal year 2025, with total revenue reaching $9.173 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.23%, and a net profit of $97.278 million, resulting in a net profit margin of 1.06% [1] - The diversified business segments showed strong performance, with the EMEA fresh produce segment accounting for 45.33% of revenue and the fresh fruit segment contributing 40.05%, indicating a balanced business structure [1] Group 2 - The company completed the sale of its fresh vegetable division for $140 million in August 2025 and authorized a share buyback plan of up to $100 million, optimizing its asset structure and enhancing shareholder returns [2] - The cash flow situation is strong, with free cash flow of $67.066 million and operating cash flow of $95.462 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, demonstrating effective management of operating funds [2] - The current dividend yield stands at 2.07%, with a quarterly dividend of $0.085 per share announced to be paid on January 6, 2026, providing stable income for shareholders [2] Group 3 - The agricultural sector showed positive performance, with the sector index rising by 1.67%, reflecting a favorable industry sentiment [2] - The executive chairman, Carl McCann, expressed confidence in the company's outlook during the Q3 2025 earnings report, anticipating adjusted EBITDA to be at the upper end of the target range of $380 million to $390 million [2]