Core Insights - The announcement from the Qingyun County Market Supervision Administration details the results of food safety inspections conducted in 2026, revealing that out of 140 batches of food tested, 131 were compliant while 9 were found to be non-compliant [3]. Summary by Category Inspection Results - A total of 140 batches of food were inspected, covering 17 categories including convenience foods, fruits, vegetables, and meat products [3]. - 131 batches passed the inspection, while 9 batches failed due to violations of national food safety standards, specifically concerning pesticide residues such as thiamethoxam and bifenthrin [3]. Non-compliant Products - The main issues identified in the non-compliant products included: - Thiamethoxam levels exceeding the standard of 0.05 mg/kg, with detected levels of 0.13 mg/kg in chili and 0.068 mg/kg in eggplant [3]. - Bifenthrin levels also exceeded the standard, with 0.11 mg/kg found in oranges and 0.25 mg/kg in another batch of oranges [3]. - Other non-compliant products included ginger and potatoes, with pesticide residues above the permissible limits [3]. Actions Taken - The Qingyun County Market Supervision Administration has initiated legal actions against the producers and sellers of the non-compliant products listed in the announcement [3].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The external environment has stabilized, and the oil and fat market is oscillating. The market has returned to the supply - demand pattern. Currently in the production - reduction season, the production - reduction data of Malaysian origin from various information agencies is in line with expectations. Coupled with positive factors from the Indonesian origin, palm oil has strong long - term price support. However, after the recent rapid price increase, there is pressure for price correction [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9094.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.89% from the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8086.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.00 yuan or - 0.07%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9215.00 yuan/ton, a change of +79.00 yuan or +0.86% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9030.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.89%, and the spot basis was P05 - 64.00, with no change. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8380.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 20.00 yuan/ton or - 0.24%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 294.00, a change of - 14.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9970.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan or +0.61%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 755.00, a change of - 19.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31 were estimated at 944,885 tons, a decrease of 5.58% from the previous month. According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31 were 1,375,718 tons, an increase of 14.89% from the previous month [2] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued an opinion on promoting rural revitalization. It includes strengthening market monitoring and information release of agricultural products, coordinating market - based purchases and policy - based storage, and promoting reasonable prices of important agricultural products. It also involves setting minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat and improving the target price policy for cotton [2] - Indian palm oil imports last month jumped to 766,000 tons, the highest since October 2025, compared with 507,204 tons in December [2] - According to SPPOMA, from January 1 - 31, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 13.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month, and production decreased by 13.08% month - on - month [2] - The CEO of the US Soybean Export Association said that global demand growth is beneficial to the outlook of US soybean exports this year. While China remains the largest market, its demand for US soybeans has declined, and demand from countries like Bangladesh, Egypt, and South American countries is growing [2] Group 4: Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a "Neutral" stance [3]

据农业农村部监测，截至2月4日14:00时，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.38元/公斤，较前一日 下降1.0%；鸡蛋平均价格为8.65元/公斤，较前一日上升0.8%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, but the details of the trade agreement remain unclear, leading to uncertainty for businesses and investors [1][4][5] - Indian officials have stated that sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy are protected under the new trade agreement, but specific details have not been disclosed [8][9] - The ambiguity surrounding the agreement includes claims about India purchasing $500 billion worth of U.S. products and stopping the purchase of Russian oil, which have not been confirmed by Indian authorities [1][9] Group 2 - The trade agreement is seen as a potential pathway for increased cooperation between the U.S. and India, but the lack of detailed terms has left many companies, especially Indian exporters, in a precarious position [5][9] - The U.S. dairy products may face challenges entering the Indian market due to cultural sensitivities regarding animal feed, which could impact millions of Indian dairy farmers [6][9] - India has been gradually reducing its oil imports from Russia, with projections indicating a decrease from 1.2 million barrels per day in January to 800,000 barrels per day by March [10]

Group 1 - The "2026 Fuchun Mountain Residence New Year Goods Fair" was held at Fuyang Sports Center, showcasing over a thousand agricultural products from more than 70 enterprises across 24 towns, with local athletes promoting the region's specialties [1] - Fuyang District has developed a public brand strategy centered around "Fuchun Mountain Residence," leading to a shift from scattered operations to brand-oriented development, resulting in an annual output value of over 4 billion yuan for local specialties [1] - The upgraded Fuchun Mountain Residence Agricultural Product Brand Pavilion achieved online and offline sales exceeding 18 million yuan in 2025, contributing to overall sales surpassing 1 billion yuan for participating enterprises [1] Group 2 - The Fuyang District Agricultural and Rural Bureau plans to enhance the "one pavilion, multiple points, and online" sales system, extending the "1+N" brand network to towns for unified promotion and distribution [2] - Future initiatives include integrating sports event traffic resources and enhancing digital marketing to develop unique agricultural product IPs, aiming to have six 1 billion yuan-level industrial chains and over three 100 million yuan-level specialty product clusters by 2027 [2] - The goal is to make local specialties a key driver for rural revitalization and a means for farmers to increase their income [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - After the concentrated release of risks, both commodity and equity assets have recovered, but the market sentiment is still in the process of recovery. [2] - The central bank's bond - buying and reverse - repurchase operations have supported the short - end of the bond market, while the long - end is affected by the rebound of the equity market. [2] - Precious metals have stopped falling and rebounded, but the confidence of gold bulls needs to be restored, and silver prices will fluctuate widely. [2] - Steel prices maintain a volatile trend, and the prices of iron ore and coking coal are under pressure. [2] - The prices of most chemical products are in a volatile state, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different products. [2] - Agricultural product prices are also in a state of volatility, with different trends for different varieties. [2] 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - After the concentrated release of risks, the equity market has rebounded, but the positions have not increased. It is in a stage of restorative rebound. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, wait for stabilization, and hold bilateral call option positions. [2] Bonds - The rebound of the equity market has slightly suppressed the sentiment of long - term bonds. The central bank's operations have supported the short - end. It is expected that the T2603 contract will fluctuate between 108 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies should be range - bound operations, and curve strategies should focus on flattening. It is recommended to arrange position transfers before the Spring Festival. [2] Precious Metals - Gold has stopped falling and is in the stage of bottom establishment, and can be allocated at low prices; silver prices will fluctuate widely between 75 - 95 dollars. Platinum and palladium will follow the rebound of gold and enter a consolidation stage, and short - term waiting for the direction to clear is recommended. [2] Shipping - The EC of container shipping has risen on the disk, and cautious waiting and seeing is recommended. [2] Steel and Related Products - Steel prices maintain a volatile trend. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coil is 3150 - 3350. Iron ore prices are under pressure after the completion of steel mill replenishment. The prices of coking coal and coke are in a volatile decline. [2] Chemical Products - Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have support at low levels, while short - fiber and bottle - chip are affected by supply - demand expectations. Some products like LLDPE and PP are in a state of supply - demand imbalance and price volatility. [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are in a state of loose supply, while cotton prices are relatively stable and long positions can be held. [2]

Core Insights - The Central Government's document emphasizes the importance of agricultural modernization for China's overall modernization, highlighting the need to strengthen pig production capacity and promote dairy consumption [1] - The agricultural sector is expected to focus on technological empowerment and enhancing the resilience of the industry chain to support high-quality agricultural development [1] Group 1: Agricultural Policy and Market Trends - The Central Government's document outlines key strategies for agricultural modernization, including stabilizing grain production at around 1.4 trillion jin and diversifying oilseed supply [1] - The average price of live pigs in China has dropped to 12.31 yuan per kilogram, with prices in Guangdong nearing 12 yuan, indicating a recovery in breeding sentiment due to positive farming profits [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture has shifted its focus from "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" to "protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation," suggesting a new growth logic centered on technology and innovative models [2] Group 2: Agricultural Index and Investment Opportunities - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Agricultural Index account for 51.02% of the index, including companies like Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, and Yili Group [2] - The Agricultural ETF (516550) closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, providing a convenient tool for investors to gain exposure to the agricultural sector, which includes beverages, agricultural products, and animal health [2] - Investors without stock accounts can also access agricultural investment opportunities through the Agricultural ETF linked fund (019279) [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and macroeconomic conditions. Different commodities show various trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, and potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The prospect of US - Iran negotiations is uncertain. Current conflicts mainly involve sanctions and local military frictions, with the situation controllable. Oil prices are affected by both geopolitical factors and inventory pressure, and are expected to continue to fluctuate [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the bearish sentiment of the crude - oil market. High - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively tight supply, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces continuous supply pressure. The high - sulfur > low - sulfur pattern may continue [21] - **Asphalt**: Supply pressure is limited. Consumption has improved year - on - year. The second - quarter refineries may face rising raw - material costs. Near - month contracts are supported by cost [22] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals rebounded. The narrative of the US dollar credit crisis and global order reshaping remains unchanged, but it is currently mainly a capital game. Precious metals are in a high - level consolidation phase, and investors should wait for volatility to decline [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: US strategic metal stockpiling plans and industry suggestions for commercial discount stockpiling have attracted re - allocation in the copper market. Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels, but there is downward pressure around the Spring Festival [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated slightly. There is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival due to weak fundamentals and large spot discounts [5] - **Zinc**: After the decline in Shanghai zinc, short - selling sentiment was released, but capital congestion remains high. Zinc is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [7] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel had a weak rebound, and stainless - steel downstream demand is weak. Spot prices are supported by low inventory and strong price - holding intentions of traders [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin recovered its previous decline. Some point - price buying emerged after the decline in tin prices. After closing the option strategy, investors should wait and see [10] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium rebounded sharply. The futures price is in a high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [11] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon prices rebounded. After the production cut by leading enterprises, the market expects a slight supply - demand gap in February. The price may test the previous high in the short term and may oscillate near the key level if the progress is less than expected [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon continued to oscillate. The supply may be reduced due to planned production cuts by leading enterprises, and downstream demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be slightly strong [13] Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices oscillated at night. Rebar demand is in the off - season, while hot - rolled coil demand and production increased slightly. Overall demand is weak, and the price rebound is restricted [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market oscillated. Supply increased slightly but was lower than last year. Demand is at a low level. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15] Coal - Related - **Coke**: Coke prices oscillated. Coking profits are average, and inventory increased slightly. The price is likely to oscillate within a range [16] - **Coking Coal**: Coking - coal prices oscillated. Total inventory increased significantly. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [17] Other Metals and Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The price corrected. Supply is in excess, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price corrected. Supply changed little, and demand has some resilience. The price is affected by supply excess and policy [19] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (Europe Line)**: The resumption of major Asia - Europe routes by leading shipping companies may put pressure on far - month contracts. The spot price may decline slightly before the Spring Festival and may be under pressure again after the festival. The 04 contract is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern [20] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The soybean - meal inventory may decline after the Spring Festival. The short - term trend of US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal is expected to be weak and oscillatory [35] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: US policies are beneficial to North American raw - material demand. The prices of soybean and palm oils are affected by macro factors and are giving back the macro premium [36] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to ease in the first quarter. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [37] - **Soybean No.1**: Policy - led soybean auctions increased market supply. The price is affected by macro factors, and short - term policy and market sentiment should be monitored [38] - **Corn**: The overall corn - selling progress is close to 60%. The price is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short term, and the post - festival market should be followed [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: Pig futures are weak. The short - term supply is increasing, and the long - term price is expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [40] - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated. The short - term spot price is weak, but there is upward - repair power in the first half of 2026. After the spot price reaches a low point around the Spring Festival, a long - position strategy for the first - half 2026 futures contracts can be considered [41] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly. The short - term trend may be oscillatory. The domestic cotton market shows strong supply and demand. Spinning mills' raw - material demand is resilient, but downstream orders are average. Investors should wait and see for now [42] - **Sugar**: International sugar production varies by country. In China, the market focuses on the production - volume expectation gap. The short - term sugar price faces upward pressure [43] - **Apples**: Apple futures oscillated. The Spring Festival stocking peak has increased cold - storage sales. The market focuses on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [44] - **Wood**: The wood - futures price is at a low level. Low inventory provides some support, and investors should wait and see [45] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper - pulp futures oscillated narrowly. Port inventory continued to increase, and demand support is weak. The price may continue to decline to find support [46] Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and index - futures contracts also increased. The short - term market focuses on geopolitical and liquidity factors, and the performance of sectors with performance support should be monitored [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures showed mixed trends. Unilateral trading may have limited short - term market movements, with a box - type oscillation. Opportunities in curve trading should be noted [48]

据欧盟委员会，截至2月1日，欧盟2025/26年软小麦出口量为1282万吨，而去年为1282万吨；欧盟 2025/26年大麦出口量为577万吨，而去年为284万吨。 中共中央、国务院发布关于锚定农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见。意见指出，加强农产品 市场监测预警和信息发布，统筹做好市场化收购和政策性收储，促进粮食等重要农产品价格保持在合理 水平。合理确定稻谷、小麦最低收购价，完善棉花目标价格政策。稳定实施耕地地力保护补贴、玉米大 豆生产者补贴和稻谷补贴政策。 美国农业部数据显示，截至2026年1月29日当周，美国小麦出口检验量为326828吨，前一周修正后为 378991吨，初值为351001吨。2025年1月30日当周，美国小麦出口检验量为253137吨。本作物年度迄 今，美国小麦出口检验量累计为16685581吨，上一年度同期14067849吨。美国小麦作物年度自6月1日开 始。 据外媒报道，周一，由于大宗商品市场大幅下挫，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）软红冬小麦期货收盘下 跌，基准期约收低2%。 市场资讯： ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 4 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 | 盘面大幅下行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大涨 | 国内糖价小幅上调 5 | | 油脂板块：美国 | 45z 拟议规则出台，带动油脂上涨较多 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏弱，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货整体下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 10 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价跟随市场情绪延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面权重降低，资金扰动加大 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：恐慌情绪有所缓和，仍可作为多头配置 15 | | 金银：金银市场回暖，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：风险释放后行情企稳 贵金属谨慎参与低多机会 1 ...