1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal trends. Different commodities and financial instruments present diverse investment opportunities and risks. For example, some commodities like manganese silicon are recommended for long - positions, while others like apples are advised to be shorted. In the financial market, a positive external liquidity environment is observed for the Greater China region's stock indices, and a steeper yield curve is expected for Treasury bonds [2][44][45]. 3. Summary by Commodity and Financial Instrument Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Supply is in a multi - factor state with both increases and geopolitical risks. Oil inventory accumulation is clear in Q3. It's recommended to hold a protective strategy of short futures and long call options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the downward trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten due to geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weaker fundamental situation with abundant supply and weak demand [20]. - **Asphalt**: Pre - holiday inventory decreases. October production plan is in line with expectations, and demand is seasonally boosted, so the price is expected to be slightly strong [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Due to weather - related import changes and expected increase in demand, the price has rebounded slightly [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: They show a strong trend in the medium - term but have high volatility risks during the National Day holiday, so it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are rising. Grasberg's supply impact is being digested. Technically, there is potential for a trend breakthrough, but basic demand has a negative expectation [4]. - **Aluminum**: It's relatively stable. September consumption is below expectations, and it faces resistance at the March high. Post - holiday peak - season feedback is to be watched [5]. - **Zinc**: As the holiday approaches, the fundamentals weaken. Attention should be paid to the support level, and short - positions are advised to take profits before the holiday [8]. - **Lead**: Supply exceeds demand during the holiday, and the price has dropped. Cost support should be noted [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is weakly running. Inventory changes vary, and it's waiting for the boost from copper prices [10]. - **Tin**: Prices have risen due to Indonesia's policy. Attention should be paid to the policy's impact and post - holiday inventory changes [11]. - **Other Metals** - **Alumina**: Supply is in surplus, and the price is weakly running [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with aluminum. Supply and demand factors lead to a mainly oscillating trend [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: With the "Three - Carbon" initiative, there is an upward price drive. It's recommended to go long at low prices [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: Similar to manganese silicon, it has an upward price drive and good demand. Long - positions at low prices are recommended [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and supply exceeds demand. Policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment should be watched [23]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The fundamental situation is okay, but cost and demand factors are dragging down the market [24]. - **Styrene**: Cost support is strengthening, but high inventory suppresses the price [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Supply is controllable, and demand provides some support, but polypropylene faces price pressure [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak situation, and caustic soda may oscillate [27]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand situation is still under pressure after the holiday [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply pressure is not large in the short - term but may increase in the medium - term [29]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is boosted by demand, and bottle - chip is affected by short - term factors [30]. Grains and Oils - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Soybeans face seasonal and export challenges. Palm oil has supply - side drivers in the fourth quarter. A protective long - call strategy can be considered [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Due to holiday factors, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [35]. - **Soybean**: Domestic soybeans perform better in the short - term. Supply situations in different periods need attention [36]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Supply pressure is high, and the price is falling. The industry's capacity reduction process should be watched [37]. - **Eggs**: For far - month contracts, long - positions can be considered, while for near - month contracts, the departure of short - funds should be watched [38]. - **Cotton**: The short - term trend is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see [39]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the focus is on the next season's production estimate in China [40]. - **Apples**: Although the spot market is good, the price faces pressure, and a short - position strategy is recommended [41]. - **Wood**: The supply - demand situation is improving, and a long - position strategy is recommended [42]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price is falling, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [43]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Indices**: They are showing strength. The external liquidity environment is positive, and a moderate increase in the allocation of cyclical styles can be considered [44]. - **Treasury Bonds**: They are falling, and a steeper yield curve is expected [45].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance of Zhuzhou Smelter Group, which saw a stock price increase of 5.02% to 16.33 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 255 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.12%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 17.52 billion CNY [1] - Zhuzhou Smelter Group, established on December 20, 1993, and listed on August 30, 2004, is primarily engaged in the production and sale of zinc and zinc alloys, as well as industrial sulfuric acid. The revenue composition includes zinc and zinc alloys at 38.48%, other products at 28.17%, gold ingots at 13.94%, silver ingots at 10.71%, lead and lead alloys at 7.85%, indium ingots at 0.51%, sulfuric acid at 0.20%, and non-ferrous metal trading at 0.14% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Zhuzhou Smelter Group is a significant investment for China Post Fund, with its Core Advantage Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund (590003) holding 3.098 million shares, accounting for 2.87% of the fund's net value, ranking as the sixth largest holding. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 2.4164 million CNY [2] - The Core Advantage Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund (590003) was established on October 28, 2009, with a current scale of 1.084 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 34.35%, ranking 2723 out of 8167 in its category, while the one-year return is 23.88%, ranking 4628 out of 8010. Since inception, the fund has achieved a return of 381.53% [2] Group 3 - The fund managers of the Core Advantage Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund are Jiang Liwei and Zhang Yiyan. As of the report, Jiang Liwei has a tenure of 4 years and 211 days, managing assets totaling 2.035 billion CNY, with the best return during his tenure being 30.66% and the worst being 8.56%. Zhang Yiyan has a tenure of 1 year and 270 days, managing assets of 1.206 billion CNY, with the best return during his tenure being 34.66% and the worst being 16.83% [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Electric Power Investment Energy (SZ 002128) held a temporary board meeting on September 28, 2025, to discuss the investment in a 63,900 kW wind power project in Xingan League, Inner Mongolia [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Electric Power Investment Energy was as follows: non-ferrous metal smelting accounted for 55.85%, coal industry 31.02%, new energy generation 7.58%, and coal-fired electricity and heat generation 5.54% [1] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Electric Power Investment Energy was 50.3 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The article also mentions a competitive situation in the beverage market, where the launch of Farmer's green bottle has led to a significant decline in market share for Yibao, dropping nearly 5 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Yuguang Jinlan (SH 600531) held its 22nd meeting of the 9th Board of Directors on September 29, 2025, to discuss increasing the margin amount for commodity futures trading in 2025 [1] - For the year 2024, Yuguang Jinlan's revenue composition is as follows: non-ferrous metals account for 49.24%, precious metals for 46.1%, other industries for 2.45%, chemicals for 2.02%, and other businesses for 0.19% [1] - As of the report date, Yuguang Jinlan has a market capitalization of 13.2 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The article mentions a competitive situation in the beverage industry, where Nongfu Spring's green bottle launch has led to a significant decline in market share for Yibao, dropping nearly 5 percentage points [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 29, the silicon iron 2511 contract was reported at 5610, down 1.23%. The Ningxia silicon iron spot was reported at 5360, down 90 yuan/ton. With the eight - department issuance of the non - ferrous metals industry growth - stabilization plan, the non - ferrous metals industry is expected to have an average annual added - value growth of about 5% from 2025 - 2026. In terms of supply and demand, production has rebounded rapidly after the previous profit improvement, with neutral inventory levels and short - term cost support. The market should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 29, the manganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5820, down 0.78%. The Inner Mongolia manganese silicon spot was reported at 5600, down 100 yuan/ton. The adjustment of the automobile trade - in policy in Jiangsu Province has taken place. Fundamentally, production has been on an upward trend since mid - May, with a significant increase in inventory this period. The market should also be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 5820 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holdings were 490,681 hands, down 10,402 hands; SF futures contract holdings were 323,191 hands, down 15,815 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon was - 63,659 hands, up 4371 hands; the net position of the top 20 in silicon iron was - 29,445 hands, up 4077 hands [2]. - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 32 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 96 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 55,212, down 901; SF warehouse receipts were 17,031, down 342 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5430 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5680 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Qinghai silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5260 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Ningxia silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5360 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2]. - The manganese silicon index average was 5694 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The SM main contract basis was - 220 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton degree, unchanged; silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 760 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 447.80 million tons, up 20.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 44.18%, down 1.50%; silicon iron enterprise operating rate was 35.33%, up 0.49% [2]. - Manganese silicon supply was 206,430 tons, down 2345 tons; silicon iron supply was 114,500 tons, up 1400 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 233,800 tons, up 34,900 tons; silicon iron manufacturer inventory was 61,460 tons, down 1930 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon inventory days of national steel mills was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; silicon iron inventory days of national steel mills was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2]. - Manganese silicon demand of the five major steel types was 122,484 tons, up 1058 tons; silicon iron demand of the five major steel types was 19,865.90 tons, up 277.30 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.47%, up 0.47%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.88%, up 0.50% [2]. - Crude steel production was 77.3686 million tons, down 2.2896 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In July, affected by US tariff policies, the global economic and trade friction index reached 110, at a high level. The US, the EU, and Brazil ranked in the top three, with the US having the largest amount of global economic and trade friction measures for 13 consecutive months [2]. - The eight - department issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - Ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in added - value and about 1.5% in the production of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 - 2026 [2]. - The draft resolution proposed by Russia and China to extend the sanctions exemption for Iran was not adopted by the Security Council. The UK representative said the UN would re - impose sanctions on Iran on Saturday, and Iran warned that the West should bear the consequences [2]. - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Commerce adjusted the automobile trade - in policy, suspending the automobile replacement subsidy policy at 24:00 on September 28, 2025 [2].

Core Insights - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.14% on September 29, reaching 72.23 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 466 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.29%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 21.287 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry, established on March 26, 2004, and listed on March 17, 2022, is located in the Gannan High-tech Industrial Development Zone, Jiangxi Province. The company specializes in the production of hazardous chemicals, fertilizers, non-ferrous metal smelting, basic chemical raw materials, recycling of used power batteries for electric vehicles, and manufacturing of new building materials [1] - The revenue composition of the company includes cobalt products (47.56%), copper products (44.39%), and other products (8.05%) [1] Fund Holdings - Silver Hua Fund has a significant holding in Tengyuan Cobalt Industry, with its Silver Hua Growth Mixed Fund (161838) increasing its stake by 24,000 shares in the second quarter, bringing the total to 293,800 shares, which accounts for 5.87% of the fund's net value, ranking it as the seventh-largest holding [2] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 23.3%, ranking 3965 out of 8244 in its category, and a one-year return of 64.22%, ranking 1468 out of 8080 [2] Fund Manager Performance - The fund managers, Liu Hui and Wang Ligang, have tenures of 8 years and 5 years respectively. Liu Hui's fund has a total asset size of 3.159 billion CNY with a best return of 123.69% and a worst return of -20.14% during his tenure [3] - Wang Ligang manages a fund with a total asset size of 3.281 billion CNY, achieving a best return of 27.62% and a worst return of -20.14% during his tenure [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "Nonferrous Metals Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to address challenges in the nonferrous metals sector, focusing on resource security, supply optimization, transformation promotion, consumption expansion, and enhanced cooperation to ensure sustainable growth and high-quality development [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Economic Performance - The nonferrous metals industry is projected to achieve an average annual value-added growth of around 5% from 2025 to 2026, with the output of ten major nonferrous metals expected to grow by approximately 1.5% annually [2]. - In 2024, the output of ten commonly used nonferrous metals is forecasted to reach 79.19 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [7]. Group 2: Resource Utilization and Supply Chain - The plan emphasizes efficient resource utilization and improving resource security, including a new round of mineral exploration strategies focusing on copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin [2]. - The initiative aims to enhance the recycling of waste nonferrous metals and promote the comprehensive utilization of emerging solid waste, such as used batteries and photovoltaic components [2]. Group 3: Technological Innovation and Industry Transformation - The plan calls for strengthening technological innovation in the industry, focusing on high-purity metals, copper alloy materials, and advanced rare earth materials [5]. - It encourages the establishment of platforms for new materials and low-carbon smelting processes to facilitate product quality improvement and innovation [6]. Group 4: Market Demand and Consumption Expansion - The plan aims to stimulate market consumption potential by promoting the upgrade of bulk metal consumption and expanding applications for high-end aluminum, copper, and magnesium alloys [6]. - It supports long-term procurement agreements between upstream and downstream enterprises to establish stable cooperative relationships [6]. Group 5: Policy Support and Implementation - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to utilize existing funding channels and policies to support the implementation of the work plan, including tax reductions and state reserves for key products [7].

Core Viewpoint - The "Nonferrous Metals Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to enhance resource exploration, recycling, and green transformation in the nonferrous metals sector, addressing current challenges and promoting sustainable development [3][4]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The plan emphasizes quality and efficiency, integrating technological and industrial innovation, and balancing supply and demand to enhance the resilience and safety of the industry [4]. - It aims to achieve high-quality development by improving resource utilization, promoting deep processing, and fostering new consumption markets [4]. Group 2: Main Goals - The nonferrous metals industry is expected to achieve an average annual value-added growth of around 5% from 2025 to 2026, with a 1.5% annual increase in the production of ten major nonferrous metals [6]. - The production of recycled metals is projected to exceed 20 million tons, with continuous improvement in the supply capacity of high-end products and advancements in green and digital development [6]. Group 3: Key Initiatives - **Resource Utilization**: The plan includes a new round of exploration strategies for copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin, and supports the establishment of recycling bases for waste metals and emerging solid waste [7][8]. - **Technological Innovation**: It promotes the development of high-end products and materials, focusing on new generation information technology and new energy vehicles, while enhancing the quality of supply [8][9]. - **Investment Expansion**: The plan encourages orderly project construction and investment in key areas like alumina and copper smelting, while avoiding redundant low-level construction [9]. - **Green Transformation**: It aims to implement energy-saving and pollution-reduction modifications in various sectors, promoting the use of advanced, energy-efficient equipment [9][11]. - **Digital Transformation**: The plan outlines steps for digital transformation in the industry, including the deployment of 5G and industrial internet technologies [11]. - **Market Demand Expansion**: It focuses on upgrading consumption in major metal applications, particularly in new energy vehicles and advanced electronics [12][13]. - **International Cooperation**: The plan seeks to stabilize foreign trade and enhance international collaboration in the nonferrous metals sector [14][15]. Group 4: Support Measures - **Organizational Support**: Local governments are encouraged to tailor policies to ensure the stable growth of the nonferrous metals industry, with a focus on collaboration across the supply chain [16]. - **Policy Support**: The plan highlights the use of long-term special bonds and other financial instruments to support resource development and technological innovation [16][17].

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年09月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：小幅反弹后再回调，依然在磨盘，节前可轻仓 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 本周沪铝在铜价因印尼矿端事件引发的大涨行情带领下，略有反弹，但随后伴随铜价休整回落，铝价亦再度回调。短期 整体趋势仍在磨盘，节前可轻仓，长假期间建议关注美国非农、海外多国制造业PMI数据等对国际市场的冲击。中期趋势 性上看，我们在铝的单边价格、波动率方向、冶炼利润上，继续保持看多方向。 ◆ 当前周频跟踪的基本面微观指标来看，整体依然不差。SMM华东现货贴水转平水，不过华南现货贴水有所扩大。截至9月 25日，铝锭社会库存较前周去库2.2万吨至61.4万吨，周四出现去库，在国庆累库过后可观察是否已形成去库拐点的确认。 下游方面，截至9月26日铝板带箔周度总产量已经连续第6周环比增加，年初迄 ...

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-09-28 海外库存矛盾难解 重要数据 2025-09-26沪锌主力合约收盘于21980元/吨，波动0.07%，LME价格收盘于2886.5美元/吨，波动-0.01%。华东地区 现货价格21950元/吨，对主力合约升贴水-60元/吨，环比变化-5元/吨，广东地区现货价格21990元/吨，对主力合约 升贴水-60元/吨，环比变化+10元/吨，天津地区现货价格21950元/吨，对主力合约升贴水-60元/吨，环比变化-5元/ 吨。LME（0-3）升贴水53.93美元/吨，环比变化-5.71美元/吨。 供应：2025-09-26SMM国产锌精矿周度加工费3650元/金属吨，周度环比波动-200 元/吨，进口锌精矿周度加工费指 数115.90美元/干吨，周度环比波动4.65美元/干吨，锌精矿进口盈亏-2123.98元/吨。 消费：镀锌企业开工率55.82%，环比变化-2.23%，压铸锌合金开工率49.73%较上周变化-4.05%，氧化锌企业开工 率58.45%较上周变化+0.34%。 库存：根据SMM统计，截至2025-09-25，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.04万吨，较上周同期变 ...