1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Options: Sell put options [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is currently facing tight supply at the mine end, increased refined copper exports due to foreign market premiums, and relatively reluctant sales of scrap copper. However, demand is relatively weak due to high prices and holiday factors. If copper prices decline, the downstream replenishment enthusiasm is expected to increase. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct batch and dip - buying hedging between 98,000 yuan/ton and 98,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the short - term decline of copper varieties caused by the rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 7, 2026, the opening price of the main SHFE copper contract was 104,480 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 103,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.81% from the previous trading day's closing price. The opening price of the main SHFE copper contract in the night session was 103,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 102,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.98% from the afternoon closing price [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - According to SMM, the spot quotation of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to a premium of 50 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 50 yuan/ton, narrowing by 30 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The spot price range was 102,830 - 103,990 yuan/ton. It is expected that today's spot will still be mainly traded at a discount, and the discount may narrow slightly as the delivery approaches [2]. 3.3 Important News - **Domestic**: As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.3579 trillion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 1.15 billion US dollars, reaching a new high since December 2015. The gold reserve was 74.15 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 ounces, increasing for the 14th consecutive month [3]. - **Overseas**: In December 2025 in the US, the ADP private - sector employment increased by 41,000, reversing the previous month's decline but falling short of market expectations. In November 2025, the JOLTS job openings in the US dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market expectation of 7.6 million, reaching the lowest level since September 2024 [3]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Mining End**: In December 2025, the average processing fee of domestic southern crude copper was reported at 1,500 yuan/ton, and the northern average was 1,050 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 250 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton respectively. The latest weekly average processing fee of southern crude copper has reached 2,000 yuan/ton. SMM expects that the crude copper market in January 2026 will remain loose, and the processing fees will remain high [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: Fitch's BMI maintains the average copper price forecast for 2026 at 11,000 US dollars/ton, stating that supply shortages, green - transition demand, and the Fed's interest - rate cuts will support copper prices. BMI expects the global refined copper production growth rate to drop to 1.1% in 2026, and the market may face a shortage [4]. 3.5 Demand Side - The Department of Industry and Information Technology of Shandong Province and other departments jointly issued the "Stable Growth Work Plan for the Non - ferrous Metals Industry in Shandong Province", aiming to break through key technologies such as high - quality alumina, new cathode preparation, and high - end rolled copper foil [5]. 3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,525 tons to 143,225 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 3,203 tons to 96,474 tons. On January 7, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 257,600 tons, with a change of 18,700 tons compared with the previous week [5].

- The "CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index" (H11059.CSI) focuses on industrial nonferrous metals, selecting 30 large-cap securities involved in industries such as copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare earth metals to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in this theme. The index uses adjusted free-float market capitalization weighting, with individual sample weights capped at 15%, and the top five samples collectively capped at 60%[24][25][26] - The index is rebalanced semi-annually, with sample adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December[25] - The index's top five constituent stocks account for 36.57% of the total weight, while the top ten account for 54.18%, with leading companies like Northern Rare Earth, China Molybdenum, and Aluminum Corporation of China having significant weightage. This concentration enhances the index's sensitivity to price cycles and supply-demand changes in key resources like rare earths, copper, and aluminum[28][29][30] - Compared to other nonferrous metal indices, such as the CSI SW Nonferrous Metals Index, the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index has lower exposure to energy and precious metals, making it more focused on industrial metals closely tied to macroeconomic cycles. This characteristic provides higher elasticity during manufacturing recovery and economic rebound phases[30][33][34] - Over the backtesting period from January 1, 2021, to November 10, 2025, the index achieved an annualized return of 9.18%, outperforming broad-based indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index. However, it also exhibited higher annualized volatility (32.29%) and a maximum drawdown of -61%[35][39][40] - The index's valuation (PE_TTM) has shown a downward trend over the past five years, with a recent recovery driven by market sentiment and sector rebound. As of November 10, 2025, the index's PE ratio stood at 20.41x, at the 68.56th percentile of its five-year valuation range, indicating reasonable investment value amid improving industry fundamentals[41][43][44] - The index's profit scale has grown significantly, with total profits increasing from 46.139 billion yuan in 2020 to 168.052 billion yuan in 2022, representing a compound growth rate of over 90%. After a temporary decline in 2023, profits rebounded in 2024 with a 19.05% year-on-year growth, and further growth is expected in 2025 and 2026[45][47]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Nonferrous Metal Industry (2025-2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of around 5% in value added and a 1.5% increase in the production of ten nonferrous metals [2][3] Group 1: Industry Goals and Measures - The plan sets specific targets, including a production of over 20 million tons of recycled metals and accelerated domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [2] - Five categories of ten specific measures are proposed to address high resource dependency and insufficient high-end supply, focusing on resource development and industrial transformation [2] - A new round of exploration strategies will be implemented to enhance the exploration and mining rights allocation for strategic resources like copper, aluminum, and lithium [2][3] Group 2: Technological and Digital Transformation - The plan emphasizes the integration of artificial intelligence in the nonferrous metal sector and aims for a 25% increase in production efficiency through smart upgrades in the smelting process [2][3] - High-end material breakthroughs are targeted, including copper alloy materials and new rare earth materials [2] Group 3: Financial and Monitoring Support - Financial measures include a proposed 50 billion yuan investment fund for the recycled metal industry and the coordination of long-term special government bonds [3] - An industry big data monitoring system will be established to manage key enterprises and projects dynamically, along with a capacity warning mechanism for key products like copper and aluminum [3] Group 4: Market Trends and Price Projections - Prices for various nonferrous metals are expected to rise due to strict supply controls and the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [4] - Historical data shows a strong correlation between nonferrous metal prices and the U.S. dollar's monetary cycle, suggesting an overall upward trend in prices [4] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Short-term investment opportunities are seen in the recycled metals and copper smelting sectors, while long-term growth is expected for companies focused on domestic copper, aluminum, and lithium resources [5][6] - Companies in the copper sector are recommended for their potential benefits from supply constraints and improving demand dynamics, particularly in light of the Fed's anticipated rate cuts [6]

Core Viewpoint - The "Nonferrous Metals Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to enhance the resilience and safety of the industry while addressing challenges such as resource security and demand exploration, ultimately supporting high-quality development in the face of external uncertainties [1][2]. Background of the Work Plan - The nonferrous metals industry is a crucial foundational sector in China, being the largest producer and consumer globally. In 2024, the industry's added value is expected to grow by 8.9%, with a revenue increase of 15.8% and profit growth of 16.5% [1]. Overall Considerations - The plan is guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts and aims to balance supply and demand while ensuring policy coordination and system thinking to promote growth and transformation in the industry [2][3]. Main Goals - The plan sets a target for an average annual growth of around 5% in added value for the nonferrous metals industry from 2025 to 2026, with a 1.5% average annual growth in the production of ten major nonferrous metals [4]. Proposed Measures - The plan outlines ten measures focusing on resource efficiency, technological innovation, investment expansion, consumption stimulation, and international cooperation [5][6][7]. Resource Efficiency - Implement a new round of mineral exploration and support the efficient utilization of low-grade and complex resources [5]. Technological Innovation - Promote breakthroughs in high-quality raw materials and advanced materials, enhancing product quality to create new demand [6]. Investment Expansion - Accelerate project approvals and promote energy-saving and pollution-reduction transformations in the industry [6][7]. Consumption Stimulation - Encourage the upgrade of metal consumption and expand the application of rare metals and high-end products [7][8]. International Cooperation - Guide enterprises to respond to foreign trade restrictions and support the import of primary products while promoting overseas projects [7][8]. Implementation Measures - The plan emphasizes organizational support, policy backing, and monitoring to ensure effective implementation of the growth targets [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The "Nonferrous Metals Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to address challenges in the nonferrous metals sector, focusing on resource security, supply optimization, transformation promotion, consumption expansion, and enhanced cooperation to ensure stable growth and high-quality development [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth Targets - The plan sets a target for an average annual growth of approximately 5% in the value added of the nonferrous metals industry from 2025 to 2026, with a 1.5% annual increase in the production of ten major nonferrous metals [2]. - The production of recycled metals is expected to exceed 20 million tons, with advancements in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [2]. Group 2: Resource Utilization and Exploration - The plan emphasizes efficient resource utilization and improving resource security, including a new round of exploration strategies for copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin [2]. - It supports the development of green and efficient mining technologies for low-grade and complex ores, as well as the comprehensive utilization of waste nonferrous metals [2]. Group 3: International Cooperation and Trade - The plan aims to enhance international development levels, guiding enterprises to respond to unreasonable foreign trade restrictions and promoting the compliant export of high-end new materials [2]. - It encourages the import of primary products like anode copper and alumina, and supports the establishment of overseas nonferrous metal projects and trade cooperation zones [2]. Group 4: Technological Innovation and Investment - The plan calls for strengthening technological innovation in the industry to enhance effective supply capabilities, focusing on breakthroughs in high-purity metals and advanced materials [6]. - It aims to expand effective investment and facilitate industry transformation through streamlined project approvals and environmental assessments [6]. Group 5: Consumption Expansion and Market Development - The plan seeks to stimulate market consumption potential by promoting the upgrade of bulk metal consumption and expanding applications for high-end aluminum, copper, and magnesium alloys [7]. - It encourages long-term procurement agreements between upstream and downstream enterprises to establish stable cooperative relationships [7]. Group 6: Industry Performance and Economic Impact - The nonferrous metals industry is a crucial foundational sector, with significant strategic value and high industrial correlation, having become the largest producer and consumer globally [8]. - In 2024, the industry is projected to see an 8.9% year-on-year increase in value added, outperforming the average industrial growth rate by 3.1 percentage points [8].

Core Viewpoint - The "Nonferrous Metals Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to address challenges in the nonferrous metals sector, focusing on resource security, supply optimization, transformation promotion, consumption expansion, and enhanced cooperation to ensure sustainable growth and high-quality development [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Economic Performance - The nonferrous metals industry is projected to achieve an average annual value-added growth of around 5% from 2025 to 2026, with the output of ten major nonferrous metals expected to grow by approximately 1.5% annually [2]. - In 2024, the output of ten commonly used nonferrous metals is forecasted to reach 79.19 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [7]. Group 2: Resource Utilization and Supply Chain - The plan emphasizes efficient resource utilization and improving resource security, including a new round of mineral exploration strategies focusing on copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin [2]. - The initiative aims to enhance the recycling of waste nonferrous metals and promote the comprehensive utilization of emerging solid waste, such as used batteries and photovoltaic components [2]. Group 3: Technological Innovation and Industry Transformation - The plan calls for strengthening technological innovation in the industry, focusing on high-purity metals, copper alloy materials, and advanced rare earth materials [5]. - It encourages the establishment of platforms for new materials and low-carbon smelting processes to facilitate product quality improvement and innovation [6]. Group 4: Market Demand and Consumption Expansion - The plan aims to stimulate market consumption potential by promoting the upgrade of bulk metal consumption and expanding applications for high-end aluminum, copper, and magnesium alloys [6]. - It supports long-term procurement agreements between upstream and downstream enterprises to establish stable cooperative relationships [6]. Group 5: Policy Support and Implementation - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to utilize existing funding channels and policies to support the implementation of the work plan, including tax reductions and state reserves for key products [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments have jointly issued the "Non-ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", aiming to enhance the resilience and safety of the industry chain and supply chain while promoting high-quality development in response to external uncertainties [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Targets - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to achieve an average annual value-added growth of around 5% from 2025 to 2026, with economic benefits remaining positive [1] - The production of ten types of non-ferrous metals is projected to grow at an average annual rate of approximately 1.5%, with significant progress in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [1] - The output of recycled metals is anticipated to exceed 20 million tons, with continuous enhancement in the supply capacity of high-end products and ongoing improvements in green, low-carbon, and digital development levels [1] Group 2: Resource Utilization and Investment - The plan emphasizes the implementation of a new round of mineral exploration strategies, focusing on resources such as copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin, while promoting efficient and green mining technologies [2] - It aims to accelerate the approval processes for mineral resource development projects through the establishment of green channels and to scientifically layout projects related to alumina, copper smelting, and lithium carbonate [2] - The plan also highlights the importance of policy support, including the use of long-term special government bonds and tax reduction policies to facilitate the industry’s growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Nonferrous Metal Industry (2025-2026)" aims to address key issues such as resource security, high-end supply shortages, and untapped effective demand through ten initiatives, targeting an average annual growth of 5% in industry value added and 1.5% in the production of ten nonferrous metals [1][2][4] Group 1: Resource Security and Supply Enhancement - The plan prioritizes improving resource security by implementing a new round of strategic actions for mineral exploration, focusing on copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin [1][2] - It supports the development of green and efficient mining technologies for low-grade and complex resources [1][2] Group 2: Technological Innovation and Quality Improvement - The plan emphasizes strengthening industrial technological innovation to enhance effective supply capabilities, including breakthroughs in high-purity metals and advanced materials [2][3] - It encourages the establishment of pilot platforms for new materials and low-carbon smelting processes to accelerate material application verification and upgrades [2][3] Group 3: Investment and Industry Transformation - The plan aims to expand effective investment and facilitate industry transformation by expediting the approval processes for mineral resource development projects [2][3] - It promotes energy-saving and pollution-reduction transformations in various sectors, including alumina and copper smelting [2][3] Group 4: Market Demand and International Cooperation - The plan seeks to stimulate market consumption by promoting the upgrade of bulk metal consumption and establishing long-term cooperative relationships between upstream and downstream enterprises [3][4] - It encourages international development by guiding enterprises to respond to unreasonable trade restrictions and supporting the export of high-end new materials [3][4] Group 5: Futures Market and Risk Management - The plan proposes to enrich important nonferrous metal futures trading varieties and financial derivatives to provide precise risk management tools for industry chain enterprises [3][4] - It highlights the need for the futures market to explore the introduction of derivatives related to the recycling metal industry to support the development of a circular economy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments have jointly issued the "Nonferrous Metals Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of around 5% in the added value of the nonferrous metals industry and a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten nonferrous metals from 2025 to 2026 [1] Summary by Sections Industry Growth and Development - The nonferrous metals industry is a crucial foundational industry with high resource variety and strategic value, having rapidly developed to become the largest producer and consumer of nonferrous metals globally [1] - The plan aims to enhance the resilience and security of the industry chain and supply chain, ensuring high-quality development in response to external uncertainties [1] Key Measures - **Resource Utilization**: Promote efficient resource use and support the development of green and efficient mining technologies for low-grade and complex resources [2] - **Technological Innovation**: Strengthen industry innovation to improve supply capabilities, focusing on high-purity metals and advanced materials [2] - **Investment Expansion**: Accelerate the construction of mineral resource development projects and promote energy-saving and pollution-reducing transformations in the industry [2] - **Consumer Demand**: Stimulate market consumption potential by upgrading demand for bulk metals and promoting high-end applications [3] - **International Cooperation**: Enhance international development by guiding enterprises to respond to trade restrictions and supporting the export of high-end materials [3] Implementation and Support - **Organizational Support**: Local governments are encouraged to refine growth targets and policies, promoting collaboration across the industry [4] - **Policy Support**: Utilize existing funding channels and tax reduction policies to support the industry [4] - **Monitoring and Analysis**: Employ big data and AI to monitor industry performance and analyze global trends [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "Nonferrous Metals Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to address challenges in the nonferrous metals sector, focusing on resource security, supply optimization, transformation promotion, consumption expansion, and enhanced cooperation to ensure sustainable growth and high-quality development [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth Targets - The plan sets a target for an average annual growth of approximately 5% in the added value of the nonferrous metals industry from 2025 to 2026, with a 1.5% annual increase in the production of ten major nonferrous metals [2]. - The production of recycled metals is expected to exceed 20 million tons, with advancements in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [2]. Group 2: Resource Utilization and Exploration - The plan emphasizes efficient resource utilization and improving resource security through a new round of exploration strategies for copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin [2]. - It supports the development of green and efficient mining technologies for low-grade and complex ores, as well as the comprehensive utilization of waste nonferrous metals [2]. Group 3: International Cooperation and Trade - The plan encourages enhancing international development levels and guiding enterprises to respond to unreasonable foreign trade restrictions [2]. - It aims to increase imports of primary products like anode copper and alumina while supporting the import of recycled metals that meet standards [2]. Group 4: Technological Innovation and Industry Transformation - The plan calls for strengthening technological innovation in the industry to enhance effective supply capabilities, focusing on high-purity metals and advanced materials [5][6]. - It promotes investment in projects related to aluminum, copper smelting, and lithium carbonate, while also advancing energy-saving and emission-reduction transformations [5][6]. Group 5: Market Demand and Consumption Expansion - The plan seeks to stimulate market consumption potential by promoting upgrades in bulk metal consumption and expanding applications for high-end aluminum, copper, and magnesium alloys [6]. - It encourages long-term procurement agreements between upstream and downstream enterprises to establish stable cooperative relationships [6]. Group 6: Industry Performance and Economic Impact - The nonferrous metals industry has rapidly developed, becoming the largest producer and consumer globally, with a projected 8.9% growth in added value for 2024 [7]. - The industry’s revenue and profit are expected to grow by 15.8% and 16.5% year-on-year, respectively, supporting strategic emerging industries and overall economic growth [7].