Core Viewpoint - The Polish Finance Minister announced that a proposed bill to reduce copper mining taxes will lead to a budget revenue decrease of approximately 1 billion zloty over the next ten years [1] Group 1 - The proposed tax reduction is aimed at the copper mining sector [1] - The financial impact of the tax reduction is significant, with a projected loss of 1 billion zloty in budget revenue [1] - The timeframe for this revenue decrease is set at ten years, indicating a long-term fiscal consideration [1]

据外媒报道，在阿塞拜疆从事黄金、白银和铜矿开采的英国盎格鲁亚洲矿业公司(Anglo-AsianMining Plc.)表示，Gilar矿已经开始生产。该矿是阿塞拜疆Gedabek矿场的一部分。该公司的目标是每年开采 2000吨左右矿石，随着运营增加，月度产量目标为5-6万盎司。 据外媒报道，加拿大Ivanhoe Mines周二表示，由于地震活动，公司已暂停刚果（金）Kakula铜矿地下开 采作业。 一、行情回顾 昨日夜盘，沪铜期货震荡走弱，主力2506合约收于77770元/吨，跌幅0.42%。 二、基本面汇总 三、机构观点 冠通期货：整体来说，市场对经济保持不确定性预期，铜价有所承压，基本面方面，需求端边际走弱， 但目前社会库存仍处于低位水平，供应端偏紧预期依然存在，铜价呈现震荡上行趋势，但临近需求旺季 尾声，虽有国内增量政策提振，但目前呈现强预期弱现实状态，整体依然承压，需持续关注美联储降息 概率及中美关税政策情况。 广州期货：宏观面，地缘政治紧张情绪急剧升温，黄金上涨提振铜价。当前美国制造业和就业数据暂 稳，叠加贸易战缓和，衰退风险减弱，但整体经济仍处于持续走弱态势中，对于铜价仍有压制。基本 面，当前铜矿 ...

Group 1 - The fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo will be held from June 12 to 15 in Changsha, Hunan, focusing on "China-Africa Cooperation for Modernization" [1] - In 2024, the trade volume between China and Africa reached $295.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, marking the fourth consecutive year of record highs [1] - China has maintained its position as Africa's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, with imports from Africa totaling $116.8 billion (up 6.9%) and exports to Africa reaching $178.8 billion (up 3.5%) [1] Group 2 - Chinese enterprises are increasingly investing in various economic and trade zones in Africa, contributing significantly to local tax revenue, employment, and export earnings [2] - Successful examples include the Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone in Egypt and the East Africa Trade and Logistics Park in Tanzania, which is expected to create over 20,000 jobs [2] - In Zambia, the Zambia-China Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone is developing a full industrial chain for copper mining, refining, and processing [2] Group 3 - Cooperation in emerging fields is deepening, with Chinese companies building large data centers in Africa and providing cloud computing services [2] - The cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power stations built through China-Africa cooperation exceeds 1.5 GW, meeting the electricity needs of millions of African households [2] - Financial cooperation has also progressed, with Egypt and the African Export-Import Bank successfully issuing RMB "Panda Bonds" in China [2] Group 4 - The upcoming expo is significant as it coincides with the successful Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in September 2024, where major initiatives for modernization were proposed [3] - The expo will focus on the "Ten Partnership Actions" and showcase cooperation achievements, aiming to gather resources and enhance collaboration for high-quality development of China-Africa economic and trade relations [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold has broken below the support level, and silver is oscillating downward. Copper lacks a clear driving force and its price is oscillating. Aluminum is in a range-bound oscillation, while alumina continues to rebound. Zinc's price is declining, lead is in a range adjustment, and tin is oscillating within a narrow range [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2506 and Gold T+D decreased by 2.90% and 3.06% respectively, while Comex Gold 2506 and London Gold Spot increased by 1.61% and 1.98%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed to varying degrees, and the ETF and inventory data also had corresponding changes [4]. - **News**: The Fed Chairman Powell will re - evaluate the "key parts" of the 2020 monetary policy framework, and long - term interest rates may rise. The US April PPI was lower than expected, and retail sales showed signs of weak consumer spending [4][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [8]. Silver - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2506 and Silver T+D decreased by 2.20% and 2.50% respectively, while Comex Silver 2506 and London Silver Spot increased by 1.23% and 1.31%. Trading volume, open interest, ETF, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [4]. - **News**: Similar to gold, including Fed policy and US economic data [4][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [8]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 1.36%, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.08%. Trading volume, open interest, inventory, and various price spreads all had changes [10]. - **News**: Macroscopically, the Fed may adjust the interest - rate framework, and long - term low - interest rates may end. Microscopically, China's copper imports in April 2025 were flat compared to the same period last year, and the cumulative imports from January to April decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamentals**: For aluminum and alumina, on May 15, 2025, 0.2 million tons of spot alumina were traded in Henan at an ex - factory price of 3100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both aluminum and alumina, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 0.53%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 1.51%. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, and price spreads changed [16]. - **News**: The US April PPI was lower than expected, and retail sales showed signs of weak consumer spending [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 0.24%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.03%. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, and price spreads changed [19]. - **News**: Similar to zinc, including US economic data [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 0.21%, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.18%. Trading volume, open interest, inventory, and spot prices all had changes [23]. - **News**: A series of macro and corporate news, including Fed policy, US economic data, and corporate cooperation and development news [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [27].

秘鲁是世界上第三的铜生产国，世界上10%的铜矿资源都汇聚于此，而这座位于秘鲁南部的拉斯邦巴斯铜矿，被预计储 存量达到1000万吨，这么大的一块"肥肉"，秘鲁怎会忍心卖给中国？ 究其原因，就是当时铜产业正处于熊市，自13年开始，全球铜价就开始暴跌，以前可以身价上万美元的铜矿直接跌到 6000美元左右。 而作为秘鲁铜产业巨头嘉能为了及时止损就开始抛售自己的铜资产，这对于中国来讲更是天赐良机。 要知道，中国是全球最大的铜资源消耗国，上到工业下到电力，无一例外，都需要铜。可是无奈我国所拥有的铜资源着 实太少。 文|江卿曻 编辑|江卿昇 你敢相信吗，一场豪赌直接改变了一个国家的资源版图，中国五矿就曾以70亿的本金购买过一座矿山，11年后直接摇身 一变成为千亿资产！铜价疯涨，一石激起千重浪，这个铜矿已经稳定保持在每年产出就有40万吨，预估计还未开发的铜 矿更是超过1000万吨，资源价值高达6700亿人民币。 不仅使我国成功摆脱铜业危机，同时也带动秘鲁实现经济腾飞，这座世界级的矿山到底蕴含什么潜力？才能让五矿买得 如此爽快? 放眼中国，经过将近30年的勘察，我国铜的总储量不过99100万吨，仅仅占全球的3.9%。 既然自家 ...

2025年05月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 | | 观点与策略 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金：下破支撑位 | | 2 | | 白银：震荡回落 | | 2 | | 铜：美元下测后回升，限制价格上涨 | | 4 | | 铝：偏强运行 | | 6 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | | 6 | | 锌：短期存支撑 | | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 15 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | ...

Summary of Cangge Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Cangge Mining - **Key Products**: Potassium Chloride, Lithium Carbonate, Copper Industry Insights - **Potassium Chloride**: Stable growth expected, with production target of 1 million tons and sales target of 950,000 tons for the year 2025. The first quarter production was 159,400 tons, a 0.5% increase year-on-year, with sales up nearly 28% to 178,500 tons [2][3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Annual production and sales target set at 11,000 tons, with first quarter production at 2,165 tons and sales at 1,530 tons. The production cost for lithium carbonate is projected to be around 31,000 yuan per ton, significantly lower than current costs [2][9] - **Copper**: The first quarter production reached 46,000 tons with a net profit of approximately 43,000 yuan per ton, an increase from 38,000 yuan in 2024. The second phase of the project is expected to be operational by the end of 2025, leading to significant capacity release [2][5] Strategic Developments - **Project Expansion**: Cangge Mining plans to gradually release production capacity for potassium chloride, lithium carbonate, and copper over the coming years. The focus will be on stabilizing potassium chloride production, prioritizing lithium project development, and advancing the second and third phases of the Giant Dragon Copper Mine [2][7][8] - **Cost Optimization**: The company is implementing cost-saving measures, particularly in lithium production, which is expected to lower overall costs as new projects come online [2][9] - **Solid-State Battery Technology**: The company is monitoring developments in solid-state battery technology and plans to establish a new team to track advancements in lithium sulfide and related products [2][15] Financial Performance - **Cash Flow**: Cangge Mining reported strong cash flow with no debt, allowing for capital expenditures to be financed through leverage [3][22] - **Dividend Policy**: The company aims to maintain a stable dividend policy, influenced by capital expenditure needs and investor return strategies [3][23][21] Market Outlook - **Copper Prices**: Long-term copper prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints and steady demand from sectors such as renewable energy and manufacturing [2][12] - **Potassium Fertilizer Prices**: Potassium fertilizer prices are projected to remain high, with current prices between 2,000 to 2,600 yuan per ton, and first quarter sales prices exceeding 2,700 yuan [2][12][14] Project Updates - **Mami Cuo Salt Lake**: The project is expected to start production in 2026, with a significant reduction in production costs anticipated [2][11] - **Laos Potash Project**: Progress has been made in obtaining necessary permits, with a long-term goal of achieving a production scale of 3 to 5 million tons [2][17] - **Giant Dragon Copper Mine**: The second phase is on track for completion by the end of 2025, with significant increases in production capacity and net profit expected thereafter [2][10][21] Conclusion Cangge Mining is positioned for growth across its key product lines, with strategic expansions and cost optimizations in place. The company is well-prepared to navigate market dynamics and capitalize on favorable pricing trends in the copper and potassium fertilizer markets.

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of approximately 9.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.37% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.584 billion yuan, up 53.59% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 491 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.15% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.811 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.49% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.41% [1] Resource Development - In 2024, copper production and sales volumes were 48,700 tons and 49,200 tons respectively, with year-on-year increases of 159% and 383% [2] - The average copper price in 2024 was 75,040 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [2] - The company plans to produce 79,400 tons of copper in 2025, focusing on the Lubambe and Lonshi mines for production enhancement [2] Mining Operations - The Dikulushi mine produced 14,800 tons of copper concentrate in 2024, while the Lonshi mine produced 26,100 tons of copper [3] - The company is in the process of transferring 5% equity of the Lonshi copper mine project to the Congolese state asset management department [3] - The Lubambe mine is undergoing technical upgrades to improve operational efficiency [3] Phosphate Production - In 2024, phosphate ore production and sales volumes were 356,500 tons and 361,100 tons respectively, with year-on-year increases of 116% and 126% [4] - The Guizhou Two Chas River phosphate mine is expected to increase production to 350,000 tons in 2024 [4] Mining Services - In 2024, the mining services segment achieved a total mining volume of 41.4918 million tons, completing 93.4% of the annual plan [5] - The segment's revenue for 2024 was 6.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1% [5] - The company aims to achieve a mining volume of 44.1729 million tons in 2025 [5] Profitability - The gross margin for the mining services business in 2024 was 26.75%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin for mining services was 23.1%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [6] Investment Outlook - The company expects significant growth in copper production capacity, projecting revenues of 12.247 billion yuan, 13.756 billion yuan, and 16.800 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027 [7] - The projected net profits for the same period are 2.071 billion yuan, 2.385 billion yuan, and 2.908 billion yuan respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 11.2, 9.7, and 8.0 for the years 2025 to 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 53.1 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 37.11 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company has shown robust operational performance in its mining services segment, with significant growth in copper production and sales expected to continue into 2025. The copper average price for 2024 is projected at 75,040 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [2][10]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of approximately 122.47 billion CNY in 2025, increasing to 168.00 billion CNY by 2027. Corresponding net profits are expected to rise from 20.71 billion CNY in 2025 to 29.08 billion CNY in 2027 [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 99.42 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 34.37%, and a net profit of 15.84 billion CNY, up 53.59% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 28.11 billion CNY, a 42.49% increase year-on-year [1][10]. Copper Mining Operations - The company plans to increase copper production in 2025 to 79,400 tons, with sales expected to reach 78,900 tons. The focus will be on the Lubambe and Lonshi copper mines, with significant production upgrades planned [2][3]. Phosphate Mining Operations - Phosphate production is also set to increase, with 2024 production and sales expected to reach 356,500 tons and 361,100 tons, respectively, marking increases of 116% and 126% year-on-year. The 2025 target for phosphate production is set at 300,000 tons [4]. Mining Services Segment - The mining services segment reported a revenue of 65.4 billion CNY in 2024, a slight decrease of 1% year-on-year. The company aims to achieve a mining service volume of 44.17 million tons in 2025 [9].

中国缺铜吗？中国铜储量为3000万吨，全球铜储量为8.3亿吨，我国每年都要大量进口铜矿石，优质的铜精矿数量依然不足，中国因为在电力、电子产品生 产领域，在建筑、机械和很多制造业方面，对一些元器件的制造，都需要用到铜材料，比如电线电缆的铜芯，对铜的需求稳定提升，因此成为世界铜消耗量 大的国家，2024年中国进口铜的总量达到了3604万吨，也是进口铜量可观的国家。 铜被称为红色黄金，是因为它具有特殊的紫红色的金属光泽，全球铜矿资源的供需市场将会出现进一步的变化，很多采购国家也将会争夺铜矿合作资源，变 成明里暗里的对同资源的竞争。 为何说对于红色黄金的争夺战将要打响？我国作为铜资源进口大国，其他国家也要进口铜，比如日韩，德国，印度，也是消耗铜的进口国，而且日韩国家铜 资源匮乏，对进口铜依赖度高，自身甚至没有资源。德国作为欧洲工业强国，进口铜制造电子领域的产品，消耗总量不断增加，在全球市场中占据较为重要 的位置，一旦铜出口国的产能降低，其他国家没有新增铜矿，必然会有竞争出现。不排除有的国家为了获得进口订单，抬高价格或者能接受较高的价格。 我国铜精矿进口第一大国，就是智利，2024年进口将近千万吨的规模，进口总额高达1 ...