证券日报网讯12月26日，中国中免（601888）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，目前正值公司年终盛 典活动期间，叠加海南自贸港全岛封关启动，具体活动福利形式包括礼券、满减、积分赠送等多重礼 包。 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月26日，中国中免发布公告称，2025年12月26日，公司全资子公司中国免税品（集 团）有限责任公司收到《中标通知书》，确认为北京首都国际机场免税项目01标段（T3航站楼）中标 人，首年保底经营费48027万元，首年销售额提成比例5%，经营期限至2034年2月10日。 ...

Core Insights - The report predicts a recovery in the commercial sector in 2026, benefiting from supportive policies and a rebound in consumer demand after a bottoming out in 2024-2025 [5][6][9] Sector Outlook Duty-Free - The new duty-free policy starting in November 2025 is expected to drive a strong recovery in the duty-free sector, with a focus on China Duty Free Group and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [6][9][14] Hotels - Hotel operations showed improvement in late 2025, with expectations for growth driven by domestic demand, spring and autumn travel, and inbound tourism in 2026. Key companies to watch include ShouLai Hotel, Junting Hotel, Huazhu Group, and Atour [6][20] Catering - The catering sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.8% in October 2025, with expectations for recovery in 2026. Companies to focus on include Xiaocaiyuan, Dashishi, Yum China, and Haidilao [21][22] Tea Beverage - Leading tea beverage companies are expected to maintain good growth in 2026, with a focus on brands like Mixue Ice City, Guming, and Tea Baidao [6][25][29] Human Resources - The outsourcing industry is expected to continue steady growth, with a focus on new application scenarios and models. Key companies include Kelly Services, Beijing Human Resources, and Foreign Service Holdings [6][37] Tourism and Scenic Spots - The tourism sector is expected to benefit from holiday effects in 2026, with a focus on companies like Jiuhua Tourism, Emei Mountain A, and Lijiang Shares [31][32] Supermarkets - The trend of reform in supermarkets is expected to continue in 2026, with a focus on companies like Jiajiayue, Xinhua Department Store, and Yonghui Supermarket [7][39] Education - The education sector is expected to maintain a favorable trend, with a focus on companies that can capitalize on the rising demand for vocational education and exam retakes. Key companies include Xueda Education, Kevin Education, and China Oriental Education [7][45]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China National Duty Free, has won the bid for the duty-free project at Beijing Capital International Airport, with a guaranteed operating fee of 480 million yuan for the first year and a sales commission rate of 5% for the first year [1] Group 1 - The contract duration is set from the start date specified in the agreement until February 10, 2034 [1] - Winning this project will enhance the company's channel advantages at core domestic airports, catering to the diverse shopping needs of inbound and outbound travelers [1] - The successful implementation of this project is expected to positively impact the company's future operating performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 is expected to significantly boost the local economy, particularly in consumption, tourism, high-end services, and high-tech industries, with a notable increase in duty-free shopping and tourist traffic [1][3][20]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The core operational model of the Hainan Free Trade Port is characterized by "one line open, two lines controlled, and free movement within the island," which aims to create a favorable business environment [3][16]. - The first day of the duty-free shopping post-closure saw sales reach 161 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61%, indicating strong consumer demand [7][20]. - The duty-free sector is experiencing a valuation recovery, with significant sales growth in various product categories such as cosmetics and electronics [20][21]. Group 2: Industry Transformation - The closure is set to reshape the local consumption and tourism landscape, establishing Hainan as an international tourism consumption center [6][19]. - The modern service industry is expected to advance towards higher-end and international standards, attracting international financial and professional service institutions [19]. - The high-tech industry is anticipated to benefit from the policy changes, creating a new hub for research and manufacturing, particularly in the biopharmaceutical sector [19]. Group 3: Corporate Strategies - Companies like China Duty Free Group are positioned as market leaders, with a significant share of the duty-free market in Hainan, capturing 82% of the market by 2024 [22]. - Local enterprises are actively upgrading their strategies, while external companies are entering the market to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the free trade port [22][23]. - The tourism sector is also seeing consolidation, with companies like Caesar Travel acquiring local businesses to enhance their market presence [25]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The policy changes are expected to benefit all retail formats across the island, with a focus on high-end department stores and domestic brands entering the duty-free market [25]. - The integration of domestic brands into the duty-free shopping experience is anticipated to provide a global platform for showcasing and selling high-quality Chinese products [25].

Group 1: Hainan Free Trade Port and Duty-Free Shopping - Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced full island closure operations on December 18, leading to a surge in duty-free shopping in Sanya [1] - Sanya's duty-free sales reached 1.18 billion yuan on the first day, with subsequent sales of 1.05 billion yuan on December 19 (up 45.8% year-on-year) and 1.08 billion yuan on December 20 (up 47% year-on-year) [1] Group 2: Wanda Group's New Openings - Wanda Group opened five new Wanda Plazas on December 19, including locations in Jinan, Quanzhou, Sanming, Chongqing, and Ganzhou, introducing approximately 600 brands [1] - The new plazas feature over 40% of stores as first-time entries in their respective cities, with a focus on local culture and immersive experiences [1] Group 3: China Jinmao's Hotel Sale - China Jinmao announced the sale of its 100% stake in Sanya Tourism for 22.646 billion yuan, with the buyer being Sanya Luanmao [2] - The asset being sold is the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Sanya, which has been operating since 2008 and is noted for its stable profitability and cash flow [2] Group 4: New Developments in Beijing - The "Bayli" cultural and commercial complex in Beijing's urban sub-center is set to officially open on December 26, covering approximately 500,000 square meters [3] - The complex includes the first large-scale multi-experience commercial entity in the country, with a significant portion dedicated to diverse cultural and tourism experiences [3] Group 5: China Cinda's Auction Success - China Cinda Asset Management successfully auctioned the Fuzhou Zhonggeng Sheraton Hotel for 323 million yuan on December 26 [3] - The auction included a debt package from Fuzhou Zhonggeng Real Estate, with the hotel being a significant asset due to its operational income and facilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China National Duty Free, has won the bid for the duty-free project at Beijing Capital International Airport, with a guaranteed operating fee of 480 million yuan for the first year and a sales commission rate of 5% for the first year [1] Group 1 - The project will enhance the company's channel advantages in key domestic airports [1] - It is expected to promote the high-quality development of airport duty-free business [1] - The operating period of the contract is from the agreed start date until February 10, 2034 [1] Group 2 - The contract terms still contain uncertainties, with specific details to be confirmed in the final signed contract [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group has won the bid for the duty-free project at Beijing Capital International Airport, which is expected to enhance the company's channel advantages and improve the shopping experience for travelers [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project bid amount is approximately 480 million yuan for the first year, with a sales commission rate of 5% for the first year [1] - The operational period of the contract is set from the start date until February 10, 2034, not exceeding 8 years [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - Winning this project will further strengthen the company's position in core domestic airport channels, catering to diverse shopping needs of inbound and outbound travelers [1] - Successful implementation of the project is anticipated to positively impact the company's future operational performance [1] Group 3: Contract Status - The company has not yet signed a formal contract, and the terms remain uncertain until the final contract is executed [1] - The company will continue to monitor the project's progress and fulfill information disclosure obligations as required by domestic and international laws [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the duty-free industry, highlighting the increasing importance of domestic demand and supportive policies from the government [1]. Core Insights - The duty-free industry is entering a new era characterized by improved external conditions, enhanced policies, and rising industry sentiment, suggesting significant investment opportunities [1]. - The report emphasizes the expected growth in Hainan's offshore duty-free sales due to the launch of new policies, the peak tourist season, and a low base effect, with sales growth projected to continue [3]. - The recovery of international passenger flow and the expansion of the免税店 (duty-free store) market are anticipated to further boost sales in both port and city channels [3][39]. Summary by Sections Duty-Free Market Overview - The duty-free market is experiencing a recovery, with sales in Hainan showing a positive year-on-year growth of 27% in November, driven by new policies and an increase in tourist numbers [3][22]. - The report notes that the sales of high-value items like digital products and gold jewelry are contributing significantly to this growth [22]. Offshore Duty-Free Sales - Hainan's offshore duty-free sales have seen a turnaround, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% in September, marking the first positive growth since March [22]. - The report indicates that the new policies implemented in October are expected to further enhance the shopping experience and increase the variety of products available [26]. Port and City Duty-Free Sales - The international passenger flow is gradually returning, with the number of inbound foreign tourists increasing significantly, which is expected to drive sales in port and city duty-free stores [39]. - The report highlights that the recent policy changes have expanded the range of products available in city duty-free stores, aiming to stimulate consumer demand [40]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the duty-free sector, specifically China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing, and Zhuhai Duty Free Group, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the policy changes and market recovery [3].

酒店行业也展现出上升态势。"本月18日以来，我们酒店的平均入住率超过90%，从酒店预订情况看，火热态势将持续至元旦后。"三亚·亚特兰蒂 斯公关经理王雯说，除了酒店主打的亲子家庭客群，近期接待的商务客群、境外游客增长明显。 值得关注的是，海南的入境游热度也持续增长。呀诺达热带雨林景区的数据显示，12月18日至12月25日，景区接待的入境游客量相比去年同期增 长超过30%，来自俄罗斯及东南亚的游客是入境旅游的主力军。在"先购物再旅游"的趋势下，预计景区的游客接待高峰将出现在元旦假期。 据海口海关统计，封关运作首周（12月18日—24日），海口海关共监管离岛免税购物金额11亿元、购物件数77.5万件、购物人数16.5万人，同比 2024年同时期分别增长54.9%、11.8%、34.1%；环比封关前一周（12月11-17日）分别增长71.8%、46.7%、71.8%。 图源于三亚市商务局 来自在线旅游平台的数据也印证了内地居民奔赴海南的热度增长。同程旅行数据显示，截至12月25日，海南自贸港正式启动全岛封关运作后的第 一周（12月18日至25日），海南省酒店预订热度月环比增长超过20%，增速位居全国第一。其中，高品质 ...