Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Consumer Sector**: Focus on new and traditional consumer stocks - **Specific Companies**: Bubble Mart, Giant Bio, Yum China, Anta, Old Paved Gold, Chow Tai Fook, Haidilao, China Duty Free Group (CDFG), Macau Gaming Industry Core Points and Arguments 1. **Consumer Stock Performance**: New consumer stocks underperformed the market, while traditional consumer stocks remained flat, influenced by policy expectations against "involution" [1][2] 2. **Investment Focus**: Emphasis on fundamental analysis for the second half of the year, with consumer confidence recovering but spending not significantly increasing [1][3] 3. **Stock Selection Criteria**: Maintain focus on performance reversal, high growth potential, and high return certainty [1][3] 4. **Recommendations**: - Dairy industry expected to balance supply and demand, leading to price recovery - Bubble Mart and Giant Bio identified as high-growth stocks - Yum China and Anta recommended for their strong governance and long-term holding potential [1][4][6][7] 5. **Bubble Mart's Performance**: After a strong earnings report, the stock experienced profit-taking, but is expected to see a profit growth of 40%-45% by 2026, with a PE ratio of 21-22 [1][11][12] 6. **Giant Bio's Growth**: Sales performance is strong, but faces high base pressure in Q4; potential for 20% profit compound growth over the next two years [1][17] 7. **Gold and Jewelry Sector**: High demand for premium products, but stable gold prices may affect growth rates; Old Paved Gold faces margin pressure [1][18][19] 8. **Macau Gaming Industry**: Exceeded expectations with GGR growth of 19% in June and July, driven by increased visitor numbers; full-year GGR growth target raised to 10% [1][24][25] 9. **Yum China's Stock Decline**: Stock price drop attributed to cautious revenue growth expectations; despite challenges, still viewed as a long-term holding [1][10] 10. **Haidilao's Challenges**: Facing pressure from macroeconomic factors and competition from food delivery platforms, leading to expected revenue decline [1][21] 11. **China Duty Free Group's Performance**: Underperformed expectations with an 8% revenue decline; future growth dependent on stability in Hainan and airport sales [1][22] 12. **Hotel Industry Outlook**: Poor performance in summer 2025, with RevPAR down 1-2%; future growth uncertain [1][23] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Bubble Mart's Supply Chain Strategy**: Focus on increasing capacity utilization and direct-to-consumer sales to balance supply and demand [1][15] 2. **Giant Bio's Innovation**: Emphasis on new product development and research to maintain competitive edge [1][17] 3. **Chow Tai Fook vs. Old Paved Gold**: Differing strategies in brand positioning and expansion, with Chow Tai Fook being more aggressive [1][20] 4. **Consumer Behavior Trends**: Shift in consumer perception towards collectible toys, with adults increasingly purchasing Bubble Mart products [1][26]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Free Trade Port has made significant progress in its development over the past five years, focusing on openness, reform, and alignment with international trade standards, and is now entering a new phase of operation with a preliminary policy system established [1] Economic and Social Development Highlights - The actual foreign investment in Hainan reached 102.5 billion yuan, with an average annual growth of 14.6%. Foreign direct investment totaled 9.78 billion USD, growing at an average annual rate of 97%. The establishment of foreign enterprises increased to 8,098, with an average annual growth of 43.7%. Goods and service trade grew at average annual rates of 31.3% and 32.3%, respectively, with investments from 176 countries and regions, raising the economic openness to 35%. Hainan has the best visa exemption policy in the country, allowing visa-free entry for citizens from 85 countries [2] Industrial System Improvement - The four leading industries—tourism, modern services, high-tech industries, and tropical characteristic efficient agriculture—account for 67% of the province's GDP, an increase of 13.7 percentage points over five years. The new productive forces are thriving, with the output value of the South Breeding Industry exceeding 18 billion yuan. The marine production value has grown at an average annual rate of 13.9%, and the first commercial space launch site in the country has been successfully established, capable of high-density and multi-type launches. The duty-free sales in Hainan account for over 8% of the global duty-free market, and the Boao Lecheng International Medical Tourism Pilot Zone has achieved synchronization with international advanced levels in medical technology, equipment, and pharmaceuticals [3] Improved Development Environment - The ecological environment quality of air, rivers, lakes, and coastal waters ranks among the best in the country, with PM2.5 concentration at 12 micrograms per cubic meter. Clean energy generation and installed capacity exceed 70% and 80%, respectively. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 59.6%, the highest in the country. The Boao Zero Carbon Demonstration Zone has achieved a 99% reduction in carbon emissions, certified by authoritative domestic and international organizations. The national government has introduced the Hainan Free Trade Port Law, providing stability for domestic and foreign investors and establishing a one-stop multi-resolution mechanism for international commercial disputes [4] Enhanced Public Well-being - The improvements in education and healthcare are becoming a reality, with the average life expectancy in Hainan reaching 80.5 years. The resident population has increased by 530,000 over five years, making Hainan one of the eight provinces in China with a net inflow of residents. Hainan is emerging as a new frontier for China's opening up, a new hub for regional cooperation, and a new engine for promoting economic globalization, laying a solid foundation for future operations and expanded openness [5]

Group 1: Consumer Sector Performance - The consumer sector has been declining for several years, with a notable lack of interest from investors [1] - The Hong Kong consumer ETF has increased by 21% since the beginning of the year, indicating some recovery in the sector [1] - Investors are seeking stocks that are low in price but have not yet started to rise, rather than those that are simply undervalued [1] Group 2: Specific Industry Analysis - The liquor industry has seen a decline of 11% since the beginning of the year, with a total loss of 23.5% since March 2022 [2][4] - Issues in the liquor sector include inventory buildup, weak demand, and declining profits, particularly for high-end brands like Moutai [4] - The photovoltaic industry has experienced a 4% decline this year, with a total loss of 43.4% since March 2022, indicating severe fundamental issues [4][5] - The tourism sector has also faced a 3% decline this year, with a total loss of around 20% since October 2021, reflecting inconsistent visitor rates and financial instability among many companies [7][10] Group 3: Challenges in Specific Segments - The duty-free segment is struggling with declining consumer purchasing power, leading to reduced profit margins for companies like China Duty Free Group [10] - Tourist attractions face unpredictable visitor rates, with some locations experiencing temporary popularity while others suffer from financial instability [10] - The airline industry is impacted by reduced business travel and declining consumer spending, leading to fewer passengers [10] - The hotel sector is facing intense competition, resulting in challenges similar to those in the restaurant industry [10] Group 4: Broader Industry Concerns - Other sectors such as real estate, coal, building materials, medical devices, food, and batteries are also experiencing difficulties, primarily due to weak demand or overcapacity [10]

Group 1: Consumer Services - The report highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth amid uncertain macroeconomic conditions, with expectations for supportive policies [1] - In Q3, the tourism sector is expected to perform well due to low base effects and the peak travel season, with recommendations for stocks like Changbai Mountain, Nanjing Commercial Travel, and Jiuhua Tourism [1] - The education sector shows stable growth potential, particularly for K12 companies like Xueda Education and AI-focused companies like Doushen Education [1] Group 2: Beauty and Personal Care - The medical beauty sector is undergoing changes due to the emergence of new institutions, with a recommendation to focus on Aimeike as the industry gains attention [2] - Q3 is traditionally a slow season for cosmetics, but opportunities exist for companies with clear catalysts in the second half of the year, including Shangmei Co., Mao Ge Ping, and Ruan Ben Co. [2] - The childcare subsidy policy is expected to benefit companies like Shangmei Co. and Shanghai Jahwa [2] Group 3: Pet Industry - The pet food sector, particularly staple foods, shows strong resilience and performance, while health products and pet supplies are experiencing rapid growth [3] - Domestic brands are expanding overseas and have established production capabilities, making external risks relatively controllable [3] Group 4: Duty-Free - The duty-free sector in Hainan is seeing a narrowing decline in sales, with stable growth in visitor traffic and the gradual opening of city duty-free stores expected to bring additional revenue [4] - The sector's funding structure is favorable, and the fundamentals are at a bottoming stage, with ongoing policy optimizations [4] Group 5: Traditional Retail - The new childcare subsidy policy is expected to positively impact maternal and infant retail companies like Aiyingshi and Kidswant, with more local policies anticipated [5] - Yonghui Supermarket has opened 23 "fat reform" stores, and attention is recommended on the progress and effectiveness of these openings [5] - The average price for toy and beauty care shops in the Small Commodity City has exceeded 130,000, indicating a higher market expectation for future pricing [5] Group 6: Gold and Jewelry - New gold and jewelry companies are focusing on product development and consumer preference analysis through digital systems and social media platforms [6] - As the consumer attributes of gold jewelry companies increase, their valuation systems are expected to shift towards consumer product PEG valuations [6] - The sector is anticipated to perform well in Q3, with recent data indicating a recovery in terminal demand for gold jewelry [6]

Industry Overview - The SW social service industry experienced a month-on-month increase of +5.13%, with professional services up by +7.5%, tourism and scenic spots by +6.6%, and education by +3.7%, while hotel and catering saw a slight decline of -0.6% [1] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially close its borders on December 18, 2025, with policy benefits continuing to be released, including an increase in the proportion of "zero tariff" goods from 21% to 74% [2] Duty-Free Market - The confirmation of the Hainan Free Trade Port's closure is expected to expand the duty-free market, with significant tax rate reductions anticipated to attract both international enterprises and travelers, thereby increasing the customer base for duty-free shopping [2] Macau Gaming Industry - Macau's gaming revenue reached 22.1 billion MOP in July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of +19%, continuing to exceed market expectations for three consecutive months, driven by improved entry visa policies and successful non-gaming transformations [3] - The outlook for the second half of the year remains positive, supported by upcoming events and the Middle East visa-free policy, which is expected to attract high-end tourists [3] Food and Beverage Sector - The ready-to-drink beverage industry saw significant growth in Q2, with Luckin Coffee reporting revenues of 12.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of +37% [4] - Despite the gradual reduction of large-scale subsidies from delivery platforms, the overall outlook for Q3 remains optimistic due to seasonal demand [4] AI and Education Sector - The commercialization of AI applications in education and human resources has accelerated, with notable product launches and sales achievements reported by companies like Dou Shen Education and Fenbi [4] - The introduction of advanced AI models is expected to further enhance the capabilities of these applications, transitioning from thematic investment to commercial realization [4]

格隆汇8月5日丨珠免集团(600185.SH)在互动平台表示，目前珠海免税未在海南经营口岸免税业务。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the positive impact of recent policies such as the Hainan Free Trade Port closure and the central childcare subsidy, which are expected to drive growth for companies that capitalize on these opportunities [1] - The duty-free environment is stabilizing, with a noted decline in duty-free shopping amounts and visitor numbers, but an increase in average spending per customer [2] - Companies in the overseas market are facing challenges due to rising costs and changing demand, but some are expected to maintain high growth through channel expansion and cost control [3] - Retail chains are undergoing significant adjustments, with many reporting improved sales and profitability following store modifications [4] - The overall retail sector remains stable, with some companies showing positive trends and continued investment in new business models and digitalization [10] Summary by Sections Trade and Retail - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start on December 18, 2025, with detailed policies on tax exemptions and regulations [1] - The central government has introduced a childcare subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year starting January 1, 2025, which is expected to stimulate economic growth [1] Duty-Free Environment - Duty-free shopping in the first half of 2025 saw a total of 16.761 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.2%, with visitor numbers down by 26.2% [2] - China Duty-Free Group reported a revenue of 11.4 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year [2] Overseas Market - Companies exporting to the U.S. are expected to face challenges due to increased costs and demand fluctuations, but some, like Xiaogoods City and Anker Innovation, are projected to maintain high growth [3] Retail Chains - Retail chains like Yonghui Supermarket and Chongqing Department Store are seeing positive results from store adjustments, with significant increases in customer traffic and sales [4] Overall Industry Outlook - The retail sector's fundamentals remain stable, with a focus on new consumption trends and digital transformation, highlighting companies such as Gu Ming and Bubble Mart as key players [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Provincial Government has issued a three-year action plan (2025-2027) to accelerate the establishment of a modern industrial system with distinctive advantages and features [1] Group 1: Policy Optimization - The plan aims to optimize the duty-free policy for offshore islands and expand the list of goods available for "immediate purchase and pickup" [1] - The initiative includes enhancing the "Study in Hainan" brand to attract high-quality international educational resources [1] Group 2: Healthcare and Medical Tourism - The government plans to accelerate the return of overseas medical consumption and promote the application of real-world clinical data [1] - The target is to have 2-4 real-world research pilot products approved for domestic market each year [1] - The goal is to introduce no less than 40 international innovative drugs and medical devices annually, with medical tourism expected to exceed 1.5 million visitors by 2027 [1]

Core Insights - The State Council held a meeting on July 31, 2025, to implement personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry loan interest subsidy policies, aimed at reducing credit costs for residents and financing costs for service industry entities, thereby stimulating consumption potential and enhancing market vitality [1] Group 1: Beneficiary Analysis - The "policy intensity - industry elasticity - valuation safety margin" three-dimensional model was constructed to identify beneficiaries, leading to three main beneficiary lines [2] - Key beneficiaries in the consumer finance infrastructure layer include: - China Merchants Bank (招商银行) with over 20% market share in consumer loans, expected to see growth in its consumer loan business due to the subsidy policy [2] - BYD (比亚迪) benefiting from reduced car purchase costs through auto loan subsidies, likely to boost sales in the electric vehicle sector [2] - Hengsheng Electronics (恒生电子) anticipated to receive numerous orders for bank subsidy system upgrades due to increased demand [2] - Tongqinglou (同庆楼), a regional restaurant leader, expected to expand operations and improve service quality due to reduced financing costs [2] - Ningbo Bank (宁波银行), which has the highest proportion of small and micro loans in the industry, will see new growth opportunities from the subsidy policy [2] Group 2: Consumption Recovery and Upgrade - Beneficiaries in the consumption recovery layer include: - Wuliangye (五粮液), a high-end liquor brand, expected to benefit from the recovery of high-end consumption in banquet scenarios [3] - Songcheng Performance (宋城演艺), a leader in the cultural tourism sector, likely to attract more visitors and enhance performance due to tourism subsidies [3] - Yili (伊利股份), a dairy industry leader, expected to benefit from the upgrade in dairy consumption and cost reductions [3] - Midea Group (美的集团), anticipated to see increased demand for home appliances due to the combination of old-for-new policies and interest subsidies [3] - Haitian Flavoring (海天味业), expected to experience growth in demand for condiments as the restaurant industry recovers [3] - Yanghe (洋河股份), benefiting from the recovery of banquet consumption in the mid-range liquor segment [3] Group 3: Long-term Value and Innovation - Beneficiaries in the consumption upgrade empowerment layer include: - Heng Rui Medicine (恒瑞医药), expected to see growth in innovative drugs and medical consumption due to increased resident spending [5] - Aier Eye Hospital (爱尔眼科), benefiting from rising demand for refractive surgery as consumer spending on eye health increases [5] - Haier Smart Home (海尔智家), anticipated to see growth in high-end smart home product sales due to interest subsidies [5] - China Duty Free Group (中国中免), expected to benefit from the recovery of inbound tourism and support for duty-free consumption [5] - Gree Electric (格力电器), likely to see increased demand for home appliances due to favorable policies and channel reforms [5] Group 4: Economic Impact - The "double interest subsidy" policy is distinct from traditional infrastructure stimulus, as it aims to precisely activate consumer demand to drive economic circulation, demonstrating stronger targeting and effectiveness [7]

Group 1 - The stock price of China Duty Free Group (中国中免) on July 30 was 66.28 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.05 yuan, representing a 0.08% rise. The trading volume reached 267,870 hands, with a transaction amount of 1.78 billion yuan [1] - China Duty Free Group is a leading duty-free operator in China, primarily engaged in the retail of duty-free goods. The company operates duty-free stores in key cities and tourist destinations across the country, covering various categories such as cosmetics, luxury goods, clothing, and electronics [1] - Haikou Customs has recently implemented smart supervision measures, significantly enhancing the customs clearance efficiency of offshore duty-free goods through technologies like electronic tags and remote video inspections. Data shows that the time from warehousing to shelf for duty-free goods can be as short as 2 hours, saving 1.4 days compared to traditional methods. Since 2025, Sanya Customs has inspected 329 batches of offshore duty-free imported goods, with 80% adopting facilitation policies [1] Group 2 - On July 30, the net outflow of main funds for China Duty Free Group was 16.5697 million yuan, accounting for 0.01% of the circulating market value [2]