Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strong upward momentum, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876), reaching a new historical high, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][10]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw significant gains, with Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) increasing by over 2.4% during trading, currently up by 1.9% [1][10]. - The ETF has attracted substantial capital inflow, with a net subscription of 40.2 million units reported, totaling 387 million yuan over the past 10 days [1][10]. Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator has shown a golden cross, with the fast line (DIF) consistently above the slow line (DEA), signaling a continuation of the bullish trend and indicating that the upward momentum has not shown signs of weakening [1][10]. Stock Performance - Leading stocks in the sector include Hunan Silver, which rose over 6%, and several others like Huaxi Non-ferrous, Tin Industry Co., and Western Mining, which increased by more than 5% [3][14]. - Key weighted stocks such as Northern Rare Earth and Zijin Mining also showed positive performance, with increases of over 2% and 1% respectively [3][14]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with the core CPI rising by 2.6%, leading to increased expectations for an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5][12]. - Following the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut in April rose to 42%, up from 38% prior to the announcement [5][12]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Fed's potential rate cuts could lead to a bullish environment for non-ferrous metals, as lower interest rates may increase demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [5][12][6]. - The current tightening supply and demand dynamics in physical assets during the Fed's easing cycle could result in significant price elasticity for metals like copper and aluminum, indicating the onset of a super cycle in industrial metals [6][12]. ETF Coverage - Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to various market cycles [7][13].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback on January 13, ending the Shanghai Composite Index's 17-day winning streak, with total trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reaching 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 541 billion yuan from the previous day, setting a new historical high [10][11] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector maintained a strong upward trend despite the market's overall decline, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876), reaching a peak increase of 2.9% and closing up 0.54%, with a total trading volume of 1.22 billion yuan [11][12] - Notable stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector included Hunan Silver, which saw a peak increase of 7.64%, and other companies like Hailiang Co. and Zhongkuang Resources, which rose over 5% [3][12] Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator formed a golden cross, with the fast line (DIF) consistently above the slow line (DEA), signaling a continuation of the bullish trend, indicating that the short-term market is dominated by buying power [11][12] Fund Flows - The Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) saw a net subscription of 55.8 million units on the day, accumulating a total of 311 million yuan over the past 10 days, indicating strong capital inflow into the sector [11][12] Commodity Insights - In the gold market, international gold prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold surpassing the $4600 mark on January 12, reaching a historical high of $4640.5, although it slightly retreated to above $4500 on January 13 [4][13] - The lithium market also showed significant activity, with lithium carbonate futures hitting a new high of 174,060 yuan per ton, marking a 40% increase since the beginning of the year [5][13] Future Outlook - Analysts predict a favorable outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector in the first quarter of 2026, driven by a combination of relaxed credit policies and increased demand from downstream enterprises ahead of the Spring Festival [15][17] - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous market is expected to remain positive, supported by seasonal demand and macroeconomic factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [15][17]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002149 | 西部材料 | 46.45 | -10.00% | 68.48万 | 32.32 Z | | 920068 | 天工股份 | 19.95 | -9.15% | 12.02万 | 2.47亿 | | 002428 | 云南错业 | 37.83 | -7.73% | 100.39万 | 38.46 Z | | 600456 | 宝钛股份 | 38.48 | -6.83% | - 37.96万 | 14.81亿 | | 688750 | 金天钛业 | 20.36 | -4.41% | 13.48万 | 2.79亿 | | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 50.81 | -3.18% | 151.81万 | 77.94亿 | | 002167 | 东方错业 | 13.08 | -2.97% | 51.58万 | 6.80亿 | | 000962 | 东方银业 | 38.05 | -2.74% | 30.73万 | 11.67亿 | | 00 ...

未来几年内全球钨供应与需求情况如何？ 预计 26 年国内钨矿产量将继续下降，而海外产量有所增加，但总体增速仍较 为理性克制，大约在 2%到 3%之间。即使 27、28 年部分矿山开始释放，总供 给增速也仅为 4%到 5%。考虑再生料因素，总增长可能仅为 3%。另一方面， 12 月份国内 PMI 数据超预期达到 50 以上，同时数控机床和挖掘机等终端产品 产量增速较高。如果后续持续降息并保持 PMI 在 50 以上水平，那么硬质合金 等代表民用需求的增长将非常可观。在 16-18 和 20-22 两段时间内，中国硬质 合金产量年化增速达 10%-20%，预计未来这一趋势将继续。因此，从供需平 衡表来看，未来几年内全球范围内供应增速相对疲软，而民用与军用双轮驱动 下的强劲需求将推动物价持续上涨。 针对投资者而言，目前投资于哪些标的是比较有潜力的选择？ 美国总统特朗普提出的 2027 年军费提升至 1.5 万亿美元对钨市场有何影响？ 特朗普提出的 2027 年军费提升至 1.5 万亿美元，而不是此前预期的 1 万亿美 元，这一消息对小金属和关键金属，尤其是钨板块产生了显著拉动作用。历史 上，钨在战争时期价格曾高于黄 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the non-ferrous metal sector experienced a significant increase of 8.56% from January 5 to January 9, ranking among the top in all primary industries [1][2] - Within the non-ferrous metal sector, the sub-industry performance was notable, with small metals rising by 11.67%, new metal materials by 9.02%, industrial metals by 8.52%, precious metals by 7.28%, and energy metals by 6.30% [1][2] Group 2 - In the industrial metals segment, the US labor market showed signs of slowing down, leading to optimistic market sentiment with expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, resulting in a general increase in industrial metal prices [2] - For copper, supply disruptions have emerged, with the London copper price reaching $12,998 per ton, a week-on-week increase of 4.1%, and Shanghai copper at 101,410 yuan per ton, up 3.23% [3] - The aluminum market is supported by the rising copper-aluminum price ratio, with LME aluminum closing at $3,136 per ton, a 3.81% increase, and Shanghai aluminum at 24,330 yuan per ton, up 6.13% [4] - Gold prices also saw an increase, with COMEX gold closing at $4,518.40 per ounce, a 4.07% rise, and SHFE gold at 1,006.48 yuan per gram, up 2.96% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a significant increase of 8.56% from January 5 to January 9, ranking among the top in all primary industries [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The sub-sectors within the non-ferrous metal industry showed strong performance, with the small metals sector rising by 11.67%, metal new materials by 9.02%, industrial metals by 8.52%, precious metals by 7.28%, and energy metals by 6.30% during the same period [1][2]. - Industrial metals saw a broad increase due to a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, maintaining an optimistic sentiment in the market [2][3]. Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices strengthened, with LME copper closing at $12,998 per ton (up 4.1% week-on-week) and SHFE copper at 101,410 yuan per ton (up 3.23% week-on-week) [3]. - Supply disruptions occurred, including a strike at a small copper mine in Chile and delays in production at the Mirador mine in Ecuador due to political changes [3]. - The overall macro sentiment remains bullish, supported by an increase in registered warehouse receipts for copper, which is expected to maintain a strong price trend in the short term [3]. Group 3: Aluminum Market Insights - The copper-aluminum price ratio's upward trend provided upward support for aluminum prices, with LME aluminum closing at $3,136 per ton (up 3.81% week-on-week) and SHFE aluminum at 24,330 yuan per ton (up 6.13% week-on-week) [4]. - New production capacity in Inner Mongolia increased theoretical operating capacity to 44.265 million tons, while demand showed a slight decline in utilization rates for aluminum products [4]. - Market sentiment remains bullish, with increased trading activity in the spot market and expectations for aluminum prices to trend upward [4]. Group 4: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices increased, with COMEX gold closing at $4,518.40 per ounce (up 4.07% week-on-week) and SHFE gold at 1,006.48 yuan per gram (up 2.96% week-on-week) [5]. - U.S. labor market data showed weaker-than-expected job growth, contributing to the bullish sentiment in precious metals, with expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [5]. - The upcoming BCOM rebalancing is anticipated to amplify market volatility, with a shift in silver leasing rates indicating a reduction in overseas spot tightness [5].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002842 | 翔鹭钨业 | 16.22 | -1.99% | 54.96万 | 8.89 Z | | 002378 | 草源钨业 | 16.65 | -1.83% | 110.37万 | 18.25 Z | | 000657 | 中钨高新 | 32.47 | -1.28% | 84.12万 | 27.22亿 | | 301026 | 浩通科技 | 32.68 | -1.27% | 10.35万 | 3.38亿 | | 600459 | 盖研铂业 | 21.32 | -1.16% | 66.24万 | 14.09亿 | | 601958 | 金铝股份 | 18.20 | -0.98% | 75.76万 | 13.77亿 | | 600281 | 华阳新材 | 6.18 | -0.16% | 19.90万 | 1.22亿 | | 002167 | 东方错业 | 13.48 | 0.00% | 46.30万 | 6.20亿 | | 001280 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market last week saw an increase in both volume and price. Although the convertible bond valuation is already high, high - priced and over - valued convertible bonds remain strong. The 100 - yuan premium rate has broken through the previous 30% - 34% oscillation range and may experience a slow correction. In an environment with a scarcity of cost - effective convertible bonds, incremental funds can only flow to convertible bonds with strong certainty in the remaining term [5][8]. - From the current absolute price and valuation level, the future upward space for convertible bonds is limited, but incremental demand is expected to provide some support. With individual bond valuations already over - estimated across the board, it is recommended to focus on newly - issued convertible bonds and those whose redemption has been waived, as trading opportunities are greater than trend - following opportunities [5][8]. - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index achieved 16 consecutive positive days and reached 4,100 points. With the inflow of foreign capital and an increase in the proportion of equity asset allocation by domestic long - term funds, the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan. Sectors such as commercial space, AI computing power, applications, and small metals continued to be strong. There was no market pull - back as previously speculated, and the market continued to break through strongly after the New Year's Day. Historically, in the A - share market, high trading volumes do not necessarily mean a market peak, but caution should be exercised when chasing high - risk themes. The market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, and the two - end market of technology and dividends will shift towards mid - cap blue - chip stocks, including industries such as cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors, and entities such as aerospace satellites, artificial intelligence, service consumption, unmanned driving, nuclear fusion, and semiconductors [5][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Views: Increase in Both Volume and Price of Convertible Bonds, and Re - emergence of Valuation Pressure - The convertible bond market last week was driven up by the underlying stocks, with high - priced and over - valued convertible bonds remaining strong. The 100 - yuan premium rate broke through the previous range and may correct slowly. Incremental funds flow to convertible bonds with strong certainty in the remaining term [8]. - The upward space for convertible bonds is limited, but incremental demand provides support. Attention should be paid to newly - issued convertible bonds and those with waived redemption, as trading opportunities are greater [8]. - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,100 points with high trading volume. Sectors like commercial space and AI were strong. The market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, and the market style will shift to mid - cap blue - chips [8]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: Leading Rise of High - priced Bonds, and New High in Valuation 3.2.1 Market Overall Performance: Overall Rise of Equity Indexes and Increase in Trading Volume - The equity market last week saw an increase in both volume and price, with all broad - based indexes rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.40%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.89%. The defense and military, media, and non - ferrous metals sectors led the rise, while only the banking sector declined. The average daily trading volume increased significantly from 726.158 billion yuan to 2.84 trillion yuan [12]. - The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week were Seli Convertible Bond, Dingjie Convertible Bond, etc. The more actively traded convertible bonds included Seli Convertible Bond, Zai 22 Convertible Bond, etc. [12] 3.2.2 Significant Increase in Trading Volume, and Better Performance of High - priced, Small - cap, and Low - rated Convertible Bonds - Last week, convertible bonds rose significantly, with the 100 - yuan premium rate breaking through the previous high and the average daily trading volume reaching 93.701 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 4.45%, the parity center rose 4.2% to 105.1 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate remained flat at 32.3%. High - priced, small - cap, and low - rated convertible bonds led the rise, while high - rated and dual - low convertible bonds performed weakly [17].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of China Rare Earth has shown significant growth, with a year-to-date increase of 14.75% and a notable rise of 11.51% over the past five trading days, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 12, the stock price of China Rare Earth increased by 2.40%, reaching 53.29 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 19.58 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.51% [1]. - The stock has experienced a 16.56% increase over the past 20 days, while it has decreased by 6.72% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, China Rare Earth reported a revenue of 2.494 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 192 million CNY, which is a remarkable increase of 194.67% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 346 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 124 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for China Rare Earth was 229,000, a decrease of 3.74% from the previous period, with an average of 4,634 circulating shares per shareholder, which is an increase of 3.89% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 29.0694 million shares, an increase of 9.4669 million shares from the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced an 8.56% increase in the week from January 5 to January 9, outperforming the overall market [14]. - The optimism in the market is driven by expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, alongside a slowdown in the U.S. labor market [29]. - The report highlights the volatility expected in the gold and silver markets due to BCOM rebalancing from January 9 to January 15 [51]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, with the non-ferrous metals sector ranking fourth among 31 sectors [14]. - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals saw gains, with small metals up 11.67%, new materials up 9.02%, industrial metals up 8.52%, precious metals up 7.28%, and energy metals up 6.30% [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices increased, with LME copper at $12,998 per ton (up 4.1%) and SHFE copper at ¥101,410 per ton (up 3.23%). Supply disruptions and macro bullish sentiment support the price [33]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum reached $3,136 per ton (up 3.81%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥24,330 per ton (up 6.13%). The copper-aluminum price ratio supports upward price trends [37]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices rose to $3,154 per ton (up 0.85%) and SHFE zinc at ¥23,970 per ton (up 2.99%). Inventory levels increased [41]. - **Tin**: LME tin prices surged to $45,560 per ton (up 13.19%) and SHFE tin at ¥352,540 per ton (up 9.17%). Market sentiment is driven by macro expectations and funding emotions [46]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,518.40 per ounce (up 4.07%) and SHFE gold at ¥1,006.48 per gram (up 2.96%). The labor market data indicates a slowdown, maintaining expectations for interest rate cuts [50]. - **Silver**: The report notes a significant drop in London silver leasing rates, indicating a shift in market dynamics and potential for increased volatility [51].