以明星分析师威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的大摩美股策略师团队发布报告称，当前美国经济或许并 不需要如此大幅度降息。"我们的观点始终一致，即'滚动式衰退'已随着特朗普政府的政策软化而终 结，目前经济正处于向早期周期 / 滚动式复苏过渡的阶段，企业盈利增长有望超出预期。" 宽松预期高涨下，流动性压力或成为市场关键风险。 摩根士丹利认为，如果美联储的行动未能达到投资者预期，市场或面临动荡风险。 周一，美国三大股指再创历史新高。截至收盘，标普500指数已经较4月初低点反弹超30%，一方面这是 市场对白宫政策不确定性的担忧有所弱化，另一方面源于投资者对人工智能热潮的乐观情绪持续升温。 与此同时，新一轮更宽松的货币政策环境也起到了助推作用。上周，美联储宣布重启降息。利率市场定 价显示，今年美联储可能将降息50个基点，明年底联邦基金利率水平或降至3%左右。 威尔逊表示，市场面临的风险在于：若美联储认识到当前经济 "滚动式复苏" 的动态特征，并判定无须 如此大幅度降息，即便从经济层面看这可能是正确决策，但市场此前已消化了更多降息预期，因此从市 场角度而言，这一结果将令人失望，且可能阻碍一轮完整的早期周期板块轮动 ...

Market Overview - The market is currently positioned well, with positive earnings breath and operating leverage, alongside a weaker dollar benefiting US earnings [2][3] - Capital markets activity is increasing, with 150 IPOs and a nearly 40% rise in M&A activity, indicating a robust market environment [3] Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's actions are seen as providing a tailwind for market growth, although there are concerns about whether the market has priced in all the good news too quickly [4][5] AI Spending and Infrastructure - There are indications of peaking AI spending, with concerns about the lack of significant adoption translating into revenue [6][8][10] - The need for improved energy infrastructure and efficiency is highlighted as a critical area for future investment, particularly in relation to AI [12][13] Investment Strategy - The company is adjusting its investment strategy by reducing exposure to private credit and increasing investments in infrastructure, which is deemed essential for supporting AI development [14] - There is a belief in maintaining a diversified investment approach, particularly favoring financials, industrials, and alternative players, as these sectors are expected to perform well [15][16]

【导读】亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔 博斯蒂克：预计2025年全年只会降息一次 来关注下美联储的最新消息。 当前没有太多理由进一步降息 预计2025年全年只会降息一次 当地时间9月22日，亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔 博斯蒂克表示，当前没有太多理由进一步降息。 博斯蒂克在接受采访时表示，在上周的美联储会议上，他预计2025年全年只会降息一次。由于美联储上 周降息，这表明其目前预计今年剩下的两次会议都不需要再次降息。 博斯蒂克说："我对长期以来过高的通胀感到担忧，所以我今天不会采取行动或支持降息。" 博斯蒂克在6月的会议上也预计2025年降息一次。他表示，他对上周降息的决定感到满意，因为与3个月 前相比，经济面临的风险在就业疲软和通胀上升之间更为均衡，当时通胀是首要任务。 博斯蒂克预计，到年底失业率将降至4.5%；核心通胀率为3.1%。 博斯蒂克表示，当前时刻对政策制定者而言是"最艰难的时期之一"，因为"两种风险都在上升"。他认 为，关税成本缓冲机制可能很快就会耗尽。 "目前，关于风险平衡存在争论，我也承认风险已经发生了变化。但对我而言，保持价格稳定仍然最为 重要。我们还没达到目标，距离目标还有一段距离。"博斯蒂克表示。 ...

金价，持续上涨！ 9月22日，金价再度大涨，现货黄金站上3720美元/盎司，再创历史新高，日内涨幅超过1%。自8月20日 启动新一轮行情以来，现货黄金累计涨幅超过12%。而自今年年初以来，金价涨幅更是超过42%。 今日美股盘前，黄金概念股集体上涨，伊格尔矿业、巴里克黄金、哈莫尼黄金涨超3%，纽蒙特矿业、 金罗斯黄金涨超2.5%，盎格鲁黄金涨近2%。 近日，摩根大通上调了对金价的价格预测，该行预计现货金价将在2025年第四季度达到3800美元/盎 司，并在2026年第一季度突破4000美元/盎司大关。同时，若美联储独立性受到冲击，投资者的资金轮 动可能在两个季度内将金价推至5000美元/盎司的高位。摩根大通的报告分析了过去六次美联储降息周 期，发现黄金价格在降息开始前和开始后都表现出持续的上涨。在最近的四次降息周期中，黄金在降息 开始后的9个月内均实现了两位数的累计回报。 瑞银也提高了黄金的目标价。瑞银预计，到2025年底金价将达到每盎司3800美元，高于此前预测的每盎 司3500美元。到2026年中，金价可能在每盎司3900美元左右，此前预测为每盎司3700美元。瑞银表示， 由于就业数据疲软，市场对美联储将重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market indices reached new historical highs, driven by market adaptation to White House policy uncertainties and ongoing optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has risen 33.75% since its low in April, with a year-to-date increase of 13.3% [2] - The Federal Reserve initiated a new round of interest rate cuts, which is providing support to the market [3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley's strategy team, led by Mike Wilson, warns that if the Fed's rate cuts do not meet investor expectations, it could lead to market volatility [3] - Wilson believes the U.S. economy may not require aggressive rate cuts, suggesting that the current economic transition is moving towards an early recovery phase [4] - There are signs of pent-up demand in sectors that have experienced weak growth over the past few years, including real estate, short-cycle industries, consumer goods, transportation, and commodities [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed's current "easing shift" differs from conventional paths in past economic cycles, as the labor market has not deteriorated to a level necessitating significant rate cuts, and inflation remains above the 2% target [4] - There is a contradiction between the Fed's policy response and the market's demand for rapid rate cuts, posing short-term risks to the stock market [4] Group 4: Liquidity Concerns - The market faces risks if the Fed recognizes the economic shift from "rolling recession to recovery" and determines that large-scale rate cuts are unnecessary, which could disappoint the market [5] - Liquidity is gradually tightening as the Fed continues quantitative tightening while the U.S. Treasury issues a large volume of bonds [5] - Signs of liquidity pressure may first appear in the spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the federal funds rate, with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE index currently at 72.5, close to a four-year low [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services through the integration of insights from over 30 specialized teams and extensive market coverage [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," integrates the wisdom of research analysts and offers a one-stop service for research reports, conference activities, and fundamental databases [1]. - The platform covers over 1,800 individual stocks, providing deep insights and analysis [1]. - Daily updates on research focus and timely article selections are part of the service, enhancing the accessibility of market insights [4]. Group 2: Features and Tools - The platform includes over 3,000 complete research reports covering macroeconomics, industry research, and commodities [9]. - It offers more than 160 industry research frameworks and 40 premium databases, facilitating comprehensive data analysis [10]. - Advanced features such as AI search, intelligent Q&A, and data dashboards are available to enhance user experience [10].

Core Insights - The global gold market is experiencing significant changes, with central banks and investors increasingly turning to gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3][11] Group 1: Central Bank Activities - Central banks worldwide, including the People's Bank of China, have been increasing their gold reserves, with China adding gold for 17 consecutive months [1] - Global central bank purchases of gold are exceeding one-quarter of the total global production annually, indicating a strong demand for gold as a reserve asset [1][11] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by weak U.S. employment data and rising unemployment rates, are contributing to a weaker dollar and higher gold prices [3] - The relationship between economic weakness, Fed rate cuts, dollar depreciation, and rising gold prices forms a closed loop that enhances gold's appeal [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as military conflicts in the Middle East and trade policy uncertainties from the U.S., are increasing the demand for gold as a hedge against risk [3][11] Group 4: Regional Investment Trends - In contrast to the aggressive gold accumulation by central banks and Western investors, Asian markets, particularly China, show a more cautious approach, with a reduction of nearly 4.8 tons in gold ETFs since August [4] - Despite a strong performance in the A-share market and a rising yuan, some investors in Asia still view gold as an important part of their asset allocation, albeit with a more cautious stance [4] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The gold market is exhibiting a "two extremes" phenomenon, where high gold prices have led to a decline in demand for gold jewelry, while investment gold bars are experiencing shortages [5][7] - The demand for gold ETFs is expected to see significant growth, with an increase of 879 billion yuan in China alone, indicating a strong interest in gold investments despite high prices [7] Group 6: Future Price Predictions - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are optimistic about gold prices, predicting potential highs of $4,000 to $5,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [9] - The shift in global reserve dynamics, with gold surpassing the euro as the second-largest reserve asset, reflects a broader transformation in the global financial landscape [11]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' analysis indicates that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will support the U.S. stock market, provided the economy avoids a recession [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Impact - The Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate cut since December 2024, leading to a 1% increase in the S&P 500 index, marking the 27th record high of the year [1]. - Goldman Sachs economists predict two more 25 basis point cuts this year and two additional cuts in 2026, aligning with current market expectations [1]. - The S&P 500 index's total return of 14% this year is driven by 55% from earnings growth and 37% from valuation expansion [1]. Group 2: Earnings as a Driving Force - Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, David J. Kostin, states that corporate earnings will become the primary driver of stock prices as the market has priced in the Fed's policy path [2]. - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has risen from 21.5 to 22.6 since the beginning of the year, which is considered close to fair value given the current macroeconomic and corporate fundamentals [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 is expected to grow by 7% in both 2025 and 2026 [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Tactical Opportunities - Despite the stock market reaching historical highs, investor positioning remains low, providing a tactical upside opportunity [3]. - Goldman Sachs' sentiment indicator currently reads -0.3, indicating that stock investor positioning is still "low" [3]. - The report suggests that if the macro environment remains stable, there is significant potential for capital inflow into the stock market [3]. Group 4: Updated Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs has revised its target levels for the S&P 500 index to 6800, 7000, and 7200 points for the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively, indicating an approximate 8% upside potential from current levels [4].

Group 1 - The article discusses the absence of Jewish presidents in the United States despite their significant influence in finance and media [1][3][5] - It highlights that Jewish individuals control major American corporations and media outlets, yet none have ascended to the presidency [3][5][21] - The article suggests that the low population of Jews in the U.S., estimated between 5.7 million to 7.6 million, limits their voting power in a democratic system [9][11] Group 2 - Historical discrimination against Jews in America has contributed to their delayed rise in political power, as they faced significant challenges upon immigration [11][13][15] - The article notes that Jews have become a powerful group in America, influencing elections and holding significant positions, but prefer to remain behind the scenes rather than seek the presidency [17][19] - Cultural and religious factors, such as the presidential oath involving the Bible, may also deter Jewish individuals from pursuing the presidency [19][21]

Core Viewpoint - Despite signs of market overheating, investors should neither fight the current bull market trend nor blindly chase higher prices, as the combination of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, positive tech stock performance, and strong U.S. consumer spending forms a bullish narrative [1][4]. Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Investor sentiment indicators suggest that optimism has not yet reached extreme levels, indicating room for further capital inflow. The AAII bull-bear indicator is near zero, far from the +20 extreme optimism threshold, and the CNN Fear & Greed Index stands at 61, not indicating "extreme prosperity" [5]. - Although bullish positions have increased compared to a few weeks ago, few investors are taking excessive risks, suggesting the market still has the capacity to absorb new funds [5]. Federal Reserve and Economic Fundamentals - The strong bullish trend is supported by both Federal Reserve policies and the fundamentals of U.S. consumer spending. Historical data shows that rate cuts by the Fed during periods of economic acceleration are highly favorable for the stock market [5][6]. Market Breadth and Sector Performance - Concerns about market breadth are deemed premature, as all 11 primary sectors under the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) have recorded positive total returns this year [7]. - The capital market's activity is closely linked to technological innovation, with significant advancements in robotics, autonomous driving, drones, quantum computing, and satellites driving market momentum [7]. Alternative Assets and Trends - In alternative assets, the declining "insurance value" of global government bonds in risk-off environments may lead to increased capital inflow into gold. Additionally, the integration of decentralized finance (DeFi) with traditional finance is accelerating, with Bitcoin's price movements increasingly discussed alongside stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities, indicating the mainstreaming of digital assets [8].