变化一： 货币秩序重构引发资产变局，人民币资产相对受益 变化二： A股投资者结构中，个人投资者占比阶段性提升 变化三： 居民储蓄存款增长叠加"资产荒"，股市的相对吸引力提升 中金研究 近期宏观基本面没有明显催化，A股市场明显走强，我们认为需要重视从资金面视角理解市场，并总结出A股资金面正在发生的五大重要变化： 市场中期走势由基本面决定，但我们也提示不可忽视资金流动的力量阶段性超过基本面，在五个变化的共振下，对下半年市场可保持相对积极。 点击小程序查看报告原文 重视A股资金面的重大变化和市场含义。 A股自去年"924"回升以来，主要指数显现近10个月的区间震荡，近期市场再度走强，上证指数重回3500点关 口，代表A股整体的万得全A指数也位于过去10个月的高点附近，与此同时，市场成交额和换手率水平不及前几次高点（图表1）。在基本面并未出现重大 催化的背景下，我们认为当前需要重视从资金面视角理解市场，本篇报告总结了A股资金面已经或正在发生的五大重要变化，包含国内外宏观和微观等因 素，对于理解过去市场以及展望未来市场前景都较为重要。 图表1：指数走强突破新高，但换手率水平不及前期高点 注：数据截至2025年7月18日 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index leading the decline, closing at 3454.79 points for the Shanghai Composite Index, down 0.09%, with a trading volume of 543.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10412.63 points, down 0.61%, with a trading volume of 833.8 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext index closed at 2123.72 points, down 1.13%, with a trading volume of 393.8 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The steel, photovoltaic, coal, and marine economy sectors showed strong performance, while military, brain-computer interface, CPO, and semiconductor sectors faced declines [1][2] - Photovoltaic concept stocks rebounded collectively, with nearly 10 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Marine economy concept stocks surged against the trend, with over 10 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Steel and cyclical stocks were active, with companies like Liugang Co. hitting the daily limit [2] - Military stocks underwent adjustments, with Beifang Changlong dropping over 10% [2] Institutional Insights - According to Jufeng Investment Advisors, the market is experiencing fluctuations, with the steel sector performing well. The marine economy is emerging as a new thematic focus due to multiple catalysts [4] - Hengsheng Qianhai Fund noted that the market remains strong under the expectation of policy support for the economy, with a dual rotation between consumption and technology sectors [4] - The long-term outlook suggests that with decreasing tariff uncertainties and a restructuring of the global monetary order, the valuation of Chinese equity assets may improve [4] Innovation and Technology - CITIC Securities highlighted the issuance of measures by the National Medical Insurance Administration and the National Health Commission to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, indicating a favorable environment for the pharmaceutical sector [5] - The report suggests embracing innovation-driven strategies and internationalization as key directions for investment in the second half of the year [5] Industry Developments - The world's largest single-unit capacity impact turbine has been successfully developed, marking a significant breakthrough in China's high-head, large-capacity turbine technology [7] - The turbine, with a capacity of 500 megawatts, will be used in the Zhala Hydropower Station, a key project for China's "Tibetan electricity export" initiative [7] Market Trends - The global DRAM market is expected to reach a historical high, driven by a significant increase in prices, with the DRAM market composite price index rising by 47.7% since the beginning of 2025 [9] - The traditional DRAM products are projected to experience a shift from oversupply to undersupply, impacting both server and consumer terminal markets [9]

来自报告 《 货币重构，资产重估——2025年下半年全球资产配置投资策略 》 美元稳定币本质既是美国政府对新兴加密货币"再中心化"的努力，又是对传统美元"去中 心化"的默许与妥协。 资料来源： Coinindex （货币指示网）、申万宏源研究 图表：美元稳定币的推出的意图是稳定美元在加密货币与资产领域的主导地位 美元信用面临挑战，美元稳定币未必稳定，继续战略看好比特币等去中心化数字货币和多 元化稳定币的中期发展空间。 图表：美元稳定币的背后依然是"美元信用" 资料来源： Coinindex （货币指示网）、申万宏源研究 未来我们认为贸易结算、货币互换流动性、离岸债券融资、香港等离岸金融市场建设是未 来人民币国际化的重要方向，尤其是香港作为全球最大人民币离岸市场，其核心价值在于 提供高质量的人民币底层资产，战略地位正在提升。 特朗普关税政策反复凸显美元面临的"特里芬难题"，全球金融货币秩序新一轮重构拉开序 幕，美元资产中期仍面临再平衡压力。 图表：美元资产吸引力是美国平衡双赤字的关键，而这一脆弱平衡正在被打破 资料来源： Wind ，申万宏源研究 历史报告 货币重构，资产重估——2025年下半年全球资产配置投资 ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 银行 Industry 稳定币对金融体系的潜在影响 >>点击图片查看全文<< 稳定币是一类币值锚定特定资产（通常为法定货币）的加密货币，是连接去中心化金融系统（Defi）和传统金融体系的桥梁，也是去中心化金融系统 （Defi）的重要基础设施。近期美国通过稳定币法案，成为美国首个为稳定币建立监管框架的法案，填补了这一领域的监管空白。时隔仅两天，中国 香港也通过了功能类似的稳定币法案，有助于中国香港参与全球数字金融中心竞争，巩固国际金融中心地位。稳定币是传统金融体系和去中心化金融 体系（Defi）之间的"桥梁"，继欧盟之后，美国和中国香港都推出了针对稳定币的监管框架，成为加密货币融入主流金融体系的重要一步。去中心化 金融迎来发展机遇的同时或将加深与传统金融体系的融合，亦对全球金融体系带来新的挑战与风险，我们尝试分析潜在影响。 图表：加密资产初具货币和金融体系的特征 资料来源：中金公司研究部 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 2025.06.15 | 林英奇 周基明等 02 策略 Strategy 缪延亮：货币秩序重构下的资产变局 >>点击图片查看全 ...

国际货币秩序重构的本质是什么？ 现行国际货币体系仍是美元体系，截至2024年，美元在全球储备货币占比接近60%。我们并不认为现行的美元体系要 崩塌，国际货币秩序加速重构本质是美元资产的安全性出了问题。从美元当前的国际储备地位的三大支点来看： 1）第一是交易媒介和计价单位， 截至 2024Q2的最新可得数据，美国GDP按照购买力平价占全球15%，但是56%的全球贸易是以美元结算的。美元在贸易中的广泛使用，赋予了美元强大的网络 效应，这一优势地位短期内较难颠覆。 2）第二是在离岸市场上，美元是重要的融资货币。 当前全球离岸融资中美元融资占比在60%左右，存量规模高达 16万亿美元。金融危机之前，离岸欧元曾和离岸美元同步迅速扩张，但金融危机之后，离岸美元在短暂下降后恢复增长，美元的融资主导地位得以进一步 强化。 3）第三是在岸市场上，美元美债一度是最重要的安全资产。 过去全球投资者对美国资产一直保持旺盛需求，但我们认为这一点正在加速发生变 化。美元资产安全性下降，体现在以下三个方面： ► 首先是美元资产之间的相关性转正，无法在内部有效地分散风险。 一般来说当风险资产下跌的时候，安全资产不应该跟随下跌，这样才能起到避 ...

Group 1: Automotive Data Regulations - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) of China has solicited opinions on the "Automotive Data Export Security Guidelines (2025 Edition)" [1] - Automotive data processors must declare data export security assessments under specific conditions, including providing important data or personal information to overseas entities [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The Chinese stock market is expected to experience continued divergence from the U.S. market, with a focus on a barbell strategy and opportunities in overseas expansion [2] - The AI sector is anticipated to drive valuation recovery in the internet industry, while external geopolitical factors remain a significant influence on market sentiment [2] - The Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) market is projected to grow by 24% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 53.3% [2] - The pharmaceutical sector is optimistic about domestic innovative drugs achieving overseas authorization, supported by national policies [3] Group 3: A-Share Market Analysis - Historical "bottoms" in the A-share market may have already occurred, with resilience observed despite external uncertainties [4] - The market is expected to continue narrow fluctuations, with potential upward movement dependent on macroeconomic policies, particularly fiscal measures [4] Group 4: Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in three main areas: capacity cycle opportunities (industrial metals, lithium batteries, innovative drugs), high-growth sectors less correlated with economic cycles (AI industry), and dividend-paying sectors (consumer leaders, public utilities) [5] Group 5: Military Trade and Defense Industry - China's military trade is evolving, with the country transitioning from a "follower" to a "leader" in the global military trade landscape [6] - Investment opportunities in the defense sector include radar systems, guided equipment, drones, military aircraft, armored vehicles, and naval vessels [6] Group 6: Stablecoin Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is gaining attention, with implications for financial technology and international currency dynamics [7] - USDT, a widely used stablecoin, has an issuance scale exceeding $150 billion, representing a new generation of payment technology [7] - Future focus on the listing of Circle and related companies in the stablecoin space is recommended [8]

1） 全球地缘再重估和国际货币秩序重构带来的机遇与挑战。 年初特朗普上任以来外部不确定性显著提升，对等关税等一系列举措影响下，全球投资者开 始新一轮"地缘再重估"。叠加美国自身财政宽松导致债务问题突出，美元和美债的安全资产属性边际下降，国际货币秩序面临重构。这个过程对于我国而 言既是挑战也是机遇，外部资金能否回流以及中国资产重估能否延续，不仅取决于外部环境的变化，也取决于我国自身发展前景及应对。 2） 我国经济内生动能稳步复苏仍是关键。 年初我国经济增长取得良好开局，体现一揽子稳增长政策效果，但内生动能复苏仍面临较多挑战。外需方面， 我国制造业韧性为经济增长的重要贡献点，但考虑到关税税率的不确定性，未来"抢出口"效应减弱后外部压力或有所提升。内部方面，地产链目前量价均 有压力，仍需"止跌回稳"；物价上，供给侧产能出清已取得一定成效，但通胀预期偏弱仍是下半年的主要矛盾之一。从政策效果而言，我们认为财政加快 现有资金使用并在下半年推出增量政策，可能仍是改善基本面问题的关键。基准情形下，结合2024年偏低的基数，我们测算A股/非金融2025年盈利同比 4%/8%左右，增速有望企稳回升，实现产能出清和景气回升行业数量 ...