当前回调有望为2026年上半年行情提供较好的布局机会。考虑到短期内基本面的积极催化因素有限，市 场情绪降温后可能需要一段时间震荡修整。但是考虑到底层驱动力并未动摇，A股市场整体估值无论在 全球横向对比，还是与大类资产对比仍然具备吸引力，尤其是沪深300的股息率相比十年期国债收益率 中金公司（601995）发布研报称，近期A股市场表现偏弱，12月16日上证指数收盘下跌1.1%，近6个交 易日累计下跌2.5%。内外因素共同影响A股表现，其中外部因素起主导作用。考虑本轮上涨行情的底层 逻辑并未动摇，中金认为A股市场中期趋势仍然向好。 仍然高出80bp左右，具备良好的配置价值。并且政治局会议与中央经济工作会议关于经济政策的表述较 为积极，未来政策逐步落实也有望改变市场对于基本面的担忧，当前回调有望为2026年上半年行情提供 较好的布局机会。配置上，逢低布局成长风格，红利风格注重阶段性、结构性机会。 配置上，逢低布局成长风格，红利风格注重阶段性、结构性机会。近期市场普遍回调，成长风格跌幅略 大，中金认为可以借调整逢低布局，建议关注三条主线：1)景气成长：算力、光模块、云计算基础设施 层面仍有机会，但可能更偏国产方向；应 ...

文 | 钱钱 编辑 | 阿景 今年的A股就跟打了鸡血似的。 到9月底一算，创业板指涨了47%，科创50更猛，43%的涨幅让不少人直呼"赶上了好时候"。 这轮行情刚开始我也没看懂，毕竟前两年大家还在抱怨"股市不涨"，怎么突然就起来了？ 后来琢磨透了，这哪儿是普通牛市啊，分明是美元那套体系出了大问题，人民币资产趁机重新定价呢。 美元这棵"大树"有点晃，美债、美联储和账本上的麻烦 要说清楚A股这波涨势，得先看看美元那边的情况。 以前美元体系跟棵大树似的，大家都觉得靠着它稳当，现在这树有点晃了。 最明显的是美债，以前都说美债是"保险箱"，全球都抢着买。 今年2月泽连斯基访美那事儿就挺标志性的，他去要援助，美国国会吵了半天没批下来。 这下市场就犯嘀咕了，连自己盟友的事儿都摆不平，美债的"安全标签"还值钱吗？后来果然，美债拍卖 的时候，买盘明显少了，收益率蹭蹭往上涨，这就是大家用脚投票呢。 美联储那边也不省心。 特朗普政府今年老掺和美联储的事儿，今天说"利率太高了"，明天又说"得降息刺激经济"。 央行独立性这东西看着虚，其实特别重要。 就像裁判老被球队老板指挥，这比赛还怎么踢？市场一看美联储腰杆不硬，对美元的信心自然就打 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around global asset allocation, focusing on the stock and gold markets, particularly in the context of China and the United States. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Market Trends**: The global stock and gold markets are benefiting from a technological revolution, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks. Chinese stocks are performing better than U.S. stocks. Recommendations include overweighting gold and Chinese tech stocks while underweighting commodities and U.S. dollar assets, a strategy that has been validated by market prices [1][2][28]. 2. **Current Market Conditions**: U.S., A-share, and Hong Kong stocks are in a bull market, with A-share and Hong Kong stocks nearing historical medians. The U.S. stock market and gold have had prolonged bull markets but still have room for growth. The key to determining the peak of Chinese stocks lies in economic policies, liquidity, and earnings valuations [1][6][18]. 3. **Investment Concerns for 2026**: Two main concerns for 2026 are whether the bull markets in stocks and gold can continue and what measures to take if market conditions change. Recent pullbacks in Chinese, U.S. stocks, and gold indicate that the market is contemplating potential changes in future trends [3][4]. 4. **Valuation Analysis**: Current valuations show that gold, U.S. stocks, and Chinese bonds are relatively high, while U.S. bonds and commodities are undervalued. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are at moderate valuations. The geopolitical events can impact markets, typically negatively affecting stocks while boosting gold and commodities [4][22][23]. 5. **Asset Class Switching Patterns**: Historical data indicates that U.S. stocks have a longer bull market duration (84% of the time) compared to the more volatile Chinese stocks. The switching patterns of different asset classes require careful monitoring of market peaks [5][6]. 6. **Top Prediction Challenges**: Predicting market tops is complicated by various bullish narratives and the difficulty of timely decision-making even when correct signals are received. The need for a multi-dimensional approach to analyze market signals is emphasized [10][11][12]. 7. **Impact of U.S. Federal Reserve Policies**: The Fed's monetary policy is crucial for asset prices. Current loose policies support asset prices, but potential tightening could pressure both stocks and gold. The Fed's personnel changes may lead to a more dovish stance in the long term [20][21]. 8. **China's Economic Policy Influence**: China's incremental policies must meet expectations to avoid negative impacts on macro liquidity. The government is committed to stabilizing growth, which is expected to support the economy and maintain stable M1 and M2 growth rates [21][24]. 9. **Geopolitical Events**: Recent geopolitical events, such as trade wars, have significantly influenced market trends, generally negatively impacting stocks while benefiting gold and commodities [23]. 10. **Valuation Concerns**: High valuations in gold and U.S. stocks increase the risk of market corrections. However, there is no clear evidence that these factors will reverse the current bull market trends, suggesting a continued overweight in Chinese stocks and gold [25][28]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Commodity Allocation Strategy**: Increasing commodity allocations is recommended to hedge against potential changes in stock and gold bull markets. Commodities are currently undervalued and could benefit from various scenarios, including better-than-expected economic performance or geopolitical shocks [26][29]. 2. **Specific Asset Class Recommendations**: - **Chinese Stocks**: Maintain an overweight position with a more balanced style, anticipating value and cyclical sectors to catch up. - **Chinese Bonds**: Downgrade from standard to underweight due to better opportunities in other assets. - **U.S. Stocks**: Maintain a standard allocation, given the high valuations and better performance of non-dollar assets. - **Gold**: Continue to overweight but be cautious of volatility, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips rather than chasing prices [27][29].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market is likely not over, as its price increase and duration are still below historical comparisons from the 1970s and 2000s [1] Gold Market Insights - The continuation of the gold bull market is contingent on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the U.S. economy not entering a strong recovery phase characterized by "declining inflation and rising growth" [1] - There is a possibility that gold prices could exceed $5,000 per ounce next year if current trends persist [1] - Despite a clear bull market logic, gold is currently considered overvalued, suggesting a strategy of increasing allocation during dips rather than chasing prices [1] Stock Market Insights - Chinese stocks are expected to benefit from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, with reasonable valuations [1] - Although year-end volatility may increase, there are no signals indicating a market top, thus maintaining an overweight position is recommended [1] - The U.S. stock market also has a bullish outlook, but concerns about high valuations and low elasticity during the dollar depreciation cycle suggest a neutral allocation [2] Fixed Income Insights - Chinese interest rates have room to decline, but the current valuation of Chinese bonds is high, limiting upside potential, leading to a recommendation for underweighting [2] - U.S. Treasuries benefit from the Fed's easing cycle but face mid-term inflation and debt risks, resulting in a neutral allocation recommendation [2] Market Top Indicators - The analysis of market tops for Chinese stocks and gold highlights the importance of economic and policy signals, with economic slowdowns or tightening policies often indicating market tops [4][5] - The difficulty in accurately timing market tops is noted, particularly due to the close timing of economic and market turning points [4] 2026 Market Outlook Factors - Four key factors that could alter the bullish trends for stocks and gold in 2026 include unexpected growth shifts, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [6][7][8] - Current data does not support a significant improvement in economic growth for China and the U.S., suggesting that the bullish trends for stocks and gold are likely to continue [8] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommendation is to overweight Chinese stocks and gold, maintain a neutral position in U.S. stocks and bonds, and adjust commodity allocations to neutral [9] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of being prepared for potential market trend changes by increasing commodity allocations [9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of identifying market tops for Chinese stocks and gold, emphasizing that economic and policy signals are crucial for making accurate predictions [1][10][40] - It highlights that the U.S. stock market has a long bull market duration, while Chinese stocks experience more frequent bull-bear switches, making timing more critical for Chinese stocks [5][10] - The analysis indicates that gold's bull and bear markets are lengthy with low switching frequency, suggesting that identifying tops is also significant for gold [1][5] Group 2 - Four key factors are identified that could potentially alter the bull market trends for stocks and gold in 2026: growth direction, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [2][39] - The current economic conditions in China are characterized as a "weak recovery," while the U.S. is moving towards "stagflation," which could impact the performance of stocks and gold differently [2][41] - The article suggests that while there are no immediate signals indicating a top for the current bull markets, high valuations for gold may lead to increased volatility in the future [26][36][40] Group 3 - The asset allocation recommendation includes overweighting Chinese stocks and gold, while maintaining a neutral position in U.S. stocks and bonds, and adjusting commodity exposure to neutral [3][4] - The rationale for these recommendations is based on the ongoing AI technology wave and liquidity conditions benefiting Chinese stocks, while gold is supported by the current monetary policy environment [3][4] - The article notes that despite potential volatility, there are no clear signals indicating a market top for Chinese stocks or gold at this time [25][36]

Core Insights - The report from CICC highlights four key factors that could potentially alter the bullish trends of stocks and gold by 2026, including economic growth shifts, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [1][2]. Group 1: Key Factors - **Economic Growth Shift**: Current weak recovery in China and a potential stagflation in the U.S. could change if policies lead to better-than-expected economic recovery, which may extend the stock bull market but negatively impact gold [1]. - **Tightening Policies**: Both China and the U.S. are currently in a loose policy environment. However, if the Federal Reserve slows down interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns, or if China's incremental policy pace slows, it could negatively affect both stock and gold bull markets [1]. - **High Valuations**: Chinese stocks are reasonably valued, but both gold and U.S. stocks are facing high valuation pressures, which could pose risks [1]. - **Geopolitical Shocks**: Unexpected geopolitical events could prolong the gold bull market but may adversely affect the stock bull market [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - **Asset Allocation**: The company recommends an overweight position in Chinese stocks and gold, a standard allocation in U.S. stocks and bonds, and an adjustment of commodities to standard allocation while reducing Chinese bonds to underweight [2][3]. - **Chinese Stocks**: Benefiting from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, Chinese stocks are seen as having reasonable valuations. Despite potential year-end volatility, there are no signals indicating a market peak, thus maintaining an overweight position is advised [3]. - **U.S. Stocks**: While the bullish logic applies to U.S. stocks, concerns over high valuations and low elasticity during a dollar depreciation cycle suggest a standard allocation is more prudent [3]. - **Commodities**: Commodities are recommended to be adjusted to standard allocation as they can hedge against changes in gold and stock trends while benefiting from post-liquidity recovery [3]. - **Gold**: Gold is expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and monetary order reconstruction, but due to high valuations, an overweight position is suggested with a focus on buying on dips rather than chasing prices [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need to maintain an overweight position in gold and Chinese technology stocks while reducing exposure to commodities and dollar assets as the market trends evolve in 2026 [2][8] - The article identifies four key factors that could potentially alter the bullish trends of stocks and gold in 2026: economic growth turning, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [4][42] - Historical analysis shows that the U.S. stock market has a long bullish phase, while Chinese stocks experience more frequent bull-bear switches, making the timing of market tops more critical for Chinese stocks [3][10] Group 2 - The article outlines the importance of accurately interpreting economic and policy signals to predict market tops, noting that signals from economic and policy dimensions are generally more reliable than those from liquidity, earnings, and valuation [14][28] - For gold, the article highlights that the key determinant for its market top is the Federal Reserve's policy, with historical data showing that four out of five gold bull markets peaked when the Fed began tightening [31][32] - The current economic environment is characterized by a weak recovery in China and a potential stagflation scenario in the U.S., which could support the continuation of the stock bull market while posing risks to the gold bull market [44]

Group 1 - The article discusses the new dynamics of the dual circulation model in the context of changing geopolitical conditions, emphasizing the importance of innovation and domestic demand to leverage China's scale economy advantages [5][7] - It highlights the recent trends in the macroeconomic environment, including the tightening of dollar liquidity and the Federal Reserve's plans to end quantitative tightening by December 2025, which may lead to a reintroduction of balance sheet expansion [7][9] - The article analyzes the movement of foreign capital, noting a divergence in investment patterns between Asia-Pacific and Europe-America, with a projected inflow of approximately 4500-6000 million HKD from public funds and insurance into the Hong Kong stock market [9][11] Group 2 - It points out the divergence between stock market performance and macroeconomic fundamentals, suggesting that increased risk appetite among investors may be a key driver of stock market support despite weak economic indicators [12][14] - The article outlines the long-term trends affecting global markets, including the restructuring of monetary order and the AI technology revolution, which are expected to influence asset performance in 2026 [14][16] - It concludes with a strategy recommendation to maintain an overweight position in Chinese stocks and gold while standardizing investments in U.S. stocks and bonds, anticipating potential shifts in economic indicators [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in global asset prices in 2025, attributing these changes to two long-term trends: the reconstruction of monetary order leading to a depreciation of the US dollar, and the AI technology revolution driving stock market growth. It suggests maintaining an overweight position in gold and technology stocks while underweighting dollar assets and commodities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Factors Changing Market Trends - Four main factors that could alter market trends are identified: high valuations, tightening policies, geopolitical shocks, and growth shifts. High valuations alone are not expected to trigger market adjustments without other driving factors [5][6][12]. - The article notes that Chinese stocks are currently at median valuation levels, suggesting potential for further upside if supported by fundamentals. In contrast, gold and US stocks are viewed as relatively expensive but still have strong long-term bullish narratives [6][12]. - Policy tightening is highlighted as a critical factor, with historical evidence showing that bull markets in stocks and gold often end during periods of tightening. The US inflation cycle is expected to peak around mid-2026, which could impact market dynamics [12][13]. - Geopolitical tensions are seen as beneficial for gold but detrimental to stocks, with historical data indicating that geopolitical events typically have short-lived impacts on asset prices [12][15]. - The article discusses the potential for economic growth shifts, emphasizing that if both the US and China experience stronger growth, it could favor stocks while challenging gold prices [12][16]. Asset Allocation Recommendations for 2026 H1 - Chinese Stocks: Maintain an overweight position, with a balanced style favoring technology growth stocks and cyclical value sectors as economic expectations improve [18]. - US Stocks: Maintain a neutral position, benefiting from macro liquidity and technology trends, while favoring Chinese stocks due to expected dollar depreciation [19]. - Chinese Bonds: Downgrade from neutral to underweight, as the bond market may face pressure from economic shifts and rising risk appetite [19]. - US Bonds: Maintain a neutral stance, with potential for yields to drop below 4%, but caution is advised due to rising inflation and fiscal expansion risks [19]. - Commodities: Upgrade from underweight to neutral, as they may benefit from improved economic conditions and serve as a hedge against geopolitical risks [19]. - Gold: Maintain an overweight position, supported by strong fundamentals such as monetary order reconstruction and rising geopolitical risks, with potential for prices to reach $5,000 per ounce [20].

Core Viewpoint - The capital market in China is expected to experience a more optimistic outlook in 2026, with investor confidence translating into action despite external uncertainties [5][34]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The market outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 is optimistic, suggesting that the performance will not be poor [7]. - The yield on equities is slightly higher than that of bonds, but this increase is still considered insufficient [8]. - A deep understanding of the long-term global competitive landscape will bolster investor confidence [10]. Group 2: Global Financial Dynamics - A downward trend in the US dollar is anticipated, which will likely lead to a systematic rise in global risk assets [13][15]. - The restructuring of the global monetary order highlights gold as a crucial asset allocation choice, even after significant price increases [18]. Group 3: Domestic Market Dynamics - The pricing power of leading domestic companies is increasing, reflecting a broader global restructuring of order [19]. - The focus should shift from quantity (GDP) to price factors, as improved pricing power among leading companies can enhance profitability [20][22]. Group 4: Investment Trends - High dividend yields remain attractive, with the current yield on the CSI 300 index still at the 90th percentile historically [31]. - The potential for revaluation exists for high ROE Chinese consumer brands, indicating long-term growth opportunities [32]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - The artificial intelligence sector is expected to see significant developments in 2026, with many traditional industries likely to benefit from AI integration [29]. - The Hong Kong market is gaining attention due to its increased depth and inclusivity, making it a vital area for investment [28].