丨2025年7月16日星期三丨 NO.1 茅台1935再度迎来酒体升级 点评：红运郎上半年出货增长超10%的数据，显示出郎酒在高端酱香白酒市场的强劲需求，这一增长态 势为郎酒在资本市场树立了积极形象。公司通过坚持每年投放300吨红运郎并接受顾问团监督，不仅强 化了品牌的高端定位，也通过精准控量维持了产品稀缺性，进一步提升了市场信心。 NO.3 上半年3家葡萄酒公司预亏、1家扭亏为盈 7月15日，有媒体报道称，茅台1935酒体升级鉴评会将于7月18日举行，这是茅台1935上市三年来的第三 次升级。据了解，茅台1935酒于2022年1月18日正式上市，一经推出便备受关注。此前，其已于2023年9 月完成包装升级，2024年6月进行第一次酒体升级。 点评：对公司而言，持续升级有助于巩固茅台1935在市场的地位，强化品牌形象，满足消费者对品质不 断提升的需求，助力茅台1935维持竞争优势，推动系列酒整体发展。从资本市场看，这一举措向投资者 展示了公司积极进取、重视产品品质的态度，可能提升市场对公司的信心。不过，升级效果最终还需市 场销售数据来验证。 NO.2 红运郎上半年出货同比增长超10% 据青花郎公众号消息，20 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Retail Sector**: The retail sales growth rate in June 2025 fell to 4.8%, but the overall consumption trend has been improving since September 2024, with significant growth in post-real estate cycle products like home appliances (+32.4%) and furniture (+28.7%) [1][5] - **Service Industry**: The service sector saw a 5.3% year-on-year growth in sales in the first half of 2025, marking the highest overall consumption growth rate in the past year at 5.2% [6] - **Alcohol and Beverage Sector**: The liquor sector is experiencing short-term demand fluctuations, with major brands like Moutai performing steadily despite a seasonal downturn in Q2. The beverage sector showed strong performance in H1 2025, with companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer maintaining high growth [9][12] Core Insights and Arguments - **Retail Sales Trends**: The decline in retail sales growth in June was attributed to the early timing of the 618 e-commerce promotion and the temporary suspension of consumption subsidies in several regions. Retail sales growth fell by 1.2 percentage points to 5.3%, while the restaurant sector saw a significant drop from 5.9% in May to 0.9% in June [2] - **Consumer Pressure**: The disposable income growth rate for residents slowed to 5.1% in Q2, down 0.4 percentage points from Q1, with the real estate market cooling significantly impacting durable goods demand [7] - **Policy Opportunities**: Potential policy measures to stimulate consumer demand in the second half of the year may focus on stabilizing prices and addressing supply-demand dynamics, similar to past supply-side reforms [8] Important but Overlooked Content - **Jewelry and Beauty Sector**: The jewelry and beauty industry is entering a relatively quiet season in Q3, with gold prices expected to remain high. June saw a 6.1% year-on-year increase in gold and silver jewelry sales, with a focus on companies like Chow Tai Fook for product structure improvements [15] - **Pork Supply Side Reform**: The supply-side reform in the pork industry is expected to enhance pig price forecasts for the second half of 2025 and 2026, with key companies to watch including Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs [27][30] - **Snack Industry Dynamics**: The snack industry is experiencing rapid store openings, with major players like Mingming and Wancheng Group leading the expansion. However, single-store revenue is declining, which may impact future growth despite the overall market potential [34][35] Investment Recommendations - **Beverage Companies**: Focus on leading companies like Nongfu Spring, Uni-President, and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to exceed market expectations in their mid-year reports [12] - **Pork Industry Stocks**: Companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foods are recommended due to their strong fundamentals and expected profit increases despite production adjustments [31] - **Jewelry Brands**: Chow Tai Fook is highlighted for its improved product structure and store upgrades, while companies like Lao Pu Gold and Changhong Ji are also noted for their strong profit expectations [15] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of various industries.

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is navigating a complex market environment in the first half of 2025, with three significant trends emerging: low-alcohol products, consumer-centric strategies, and internationalization [1][3][5]. Group 1: Low-Alcohol Trend - The low-alcohol trend is becoming a new highlight in the industry, with leading companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao launching low-alcohol products such as Wuliangye's "29-degree Wuliangye" and Luzhou Laojiao's "28-degree Guojiao 1573" [1]. - The low-alcohol market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of around 30%, and is expected to exceed 74 billion yuan by 2025 [1]. - This trend allows companies to explore new avenues in a saturated high-alcohol market and effectively reach younger consumers, although it requires higher standards in brewing technology and careful strategic planning [1]. Group 2: Consumer-Centric Strategies - Companies are accelerating their focus on consumer markets through initiatives like Luzhou Laojiao's "Jiao Zhu Festival" and interactive tasting events, which aim to enhance user value and build emotional connections with consumers [3]. - The consumer-centric approach helps to overcome growth bottlenecks and reshape development dynamics while fostering a new generation of consumers [3]. - However, this strategy requires long-term investment and careful management to avoid ineffective competition [3]. Group 3: Internationalization - The industry is making strides in internationalization, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showcasing Chinese liquor at the 2025 Osaka World Expo, attracting international attention [5]. - Wuliangye is actively participating in various activities as a senior partner of the China Pavilion, while Moutai is launching a series of new products that explore cultural integration and localization [5]. - In 2024, the export volume of Chinese liquor increased by 6.3%, with total export value rising by 20.4%, and a significant 30% increase in export value in the first quarter of this year [5]. - Despite these gains, the global market share of Chinese liquor remains small, facing challenges such as tariff barriers and cultural differences [5][10]. Group 4: Standardization Efforts - The national liquor standardization technical committee has made significant progress by releasing a draft national standard for liquor quality, aimed at establishing standardized language for international markets [7]. - The introduction of the "liquor flavor wheel" replaces traditional terminology with familiar taste vocabulary for international consumers, facilitating the internationalization of Chinese liquor [8]. - These initiatives are designed to bridge cognitive gaps and provide strong support for the global expansion of Chinese liquor [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, leading to significant performance pressure on liquor companies, particularly for JiuGuiJiu, which has reported a substantial decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - JiuGuiJiu expects revenue of approximately 560 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of about 43% [1][2]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 8 million and 12 million yuan, representing a decline of 90.08% to 93.39% compared to the same period last year [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 already showed a downward trend, with revenue of 344 million yuan, down 30.34%, and a net profit of 31.71 million yuan, down 56.78% [3]. - The first half of 2024 had a revenue of 994 million yuan, down 35.5%, and a net profit of 121 million yuan, down 71.3% [3]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is experiencing a prolonged adjustment phase, with increased pressure on operations, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises [2][4]. - JiuGuiJiu's performance has been declining sharply since 2023, with a reported revenue of approximately 2.83 billion yuan in 2023, down 30.14%, and a net profit of about 548 million yuan, down 47.77% [8]. - In 2024, the company continued to see significant contraction, with revenue of 1.423 billion yuan, down 49.70%, and a net profit of 12.49 million yuan, down 97.72% [8]. Company Challenges - JiuGuiJiu's geographical limitations are evident, with 45.11% of revenue coming from Hunan province [9]. - The company relies heavily on offline sales channels, with online sales only reaching 186 million yuan compared to 1.229 billion yuan from offline channels in 2024 [9]. - The number of distributors has decreased significantly, from 1,774 at the end of 2023 to 1,336 by the end of 2024, indicating a contraction in sales channels [10].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has continued to decline in 2025, reflecting a weakening demand in the high-end liquor market and a shift towards a more consumer-oriented pricing structure [1][6][7]. Price Trends - As of June 25, 2025, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) has dropped to 1830 CNY per bottle from 1915 CNY, a decrease of 85 CNY [1][2]. - The retail price on e-commerce platforms has also seen significant reductions, with some listings as low as 1760 CNY for a single bottle [3]. - Year-to-date, the price of Feitian Moutai has seen a cumulative decline of 440 CNY (19.82%) for scattered bottles and 485 CNY (20.95%) for original boxes [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to increased supply and weakened demand, with production capacity reaching 65,000 tons in 2024, a 12% year-on-year increase [6][7]. - The investment and collection demand for Moutai has decreased from 35% in 2020 to 18% in 2025, indicating a shift away from viewing Moutai as a financial asset [6][7]. Impact on Company Valuation - The decline in prices has led to a decrease in the market valuation of Kweichow Moutai, with its market cap falling below 2 trillion CNY, reflecting changing investor expectations regarding future profitability [7]. - The price drop is expected to influence the entire high-end liquor sector, including brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [7][8]. Regulatory Environment - The introduction of stricter regulations on alcohol consumption in government settings has caused a short-term emotional impact on the liquor market, although the actual effect on sales is limited due to the reduced reliance on government consumption [9][10]. - The industry is facing pressures to manage inventory and control prices, with total inventory reaching 167.86 billion CNY in 2024 [10][11]. Strategic Adjustments - Companies are adapting by enhancing digital management and monitoring inventory through platforms like "i Moutai" to maintain pricing structures [10]. - There is a notable shift towards product innovation and diversification of sales channels, including international markets, to reduce dependence on domestic sales [10][11].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant value reconstruction, moving away from the "easy profit" era as companies face declining sales and profits [1][2][8] - Market participants are compelled to rethink their survival strategies, shifting from reliance on inventory accumulation to focusing on consumer demand [1][6] Performance Decline - Major liquor companies reported substantial profit declines for the first half of 2025, with Shunxin Agriculture's net profit expected to drop by 53.85%-63.32% to between 155 million and 195 million yuan, down from 423 million yuan [2] - Jiu Gui Jiu's net profit is projected to fall by 90.08%-93.39% to between 8 million and 12 million yuan, with revenue expected to decrease by approximately 43% [2] - Jinzhongzi Wine anticipates a loss of 60 million to 90 million yuan, citing ongoing industry adjustments and declining production [2] Market Challenges - The industry is facing increased inventory pressure and a cautious market outlook, with high-end liquor prices continuing to decline and consumption shifting towards home drinking and lower-priced options [3][4] - The restaurant sector, a key consumption channel for liquor, has seen a significant slowdown, with revenue growth dropping to 0.9%, impacting overall liquor sales [4] Cash Flow Pressures - Over 81.3% of liquor distributors prioritize maintaining cash flow over profit, reflecting the urgent need to manage inventory and liquidity [5] - Distributors are resorting to selling products at lower prices to move inventory, as retail markets struggle to absorb excess stock [5] Transformation Imperative - The deep industry adjustments and weak seasonal performance are driving liquor companies to accelerate their transformation efforts, with a focus on consumer-centric strategies [6][8] - Leading companies like Moutai are shifting from a product-centric to a consumer-centric approach, emphasizing the need for innovation and service integration [6][7] Innovation and Market Adaptation - Luzhou Laojiao is focusing on product innovation to meet evolving consumer demands, successfully launching lower-alcohol products and expanding into new beverage categories [7] - Regional companies are also adapting by exploring new sales channels and product development to navigate market pressures [7][8] Overall Industry Trends - The liquor industry's transformation paths vary, but all aim to abandon the "easy profit" mindset and focus on sustainable growth through consumer engagement and market adaptation [8]

Group 1 - The current market is exhibiting a "low-level rotation rally" characteristic, indicating an overall increase in market valuation, with opportunities for various sectors, including those that have been stagnant for a long time, such as lithium and liquor [1] - The market strategy appears to focus on creating sectors that attract media attention to draw in outside capital, which is particularly evident in a bull market where adjustments occur through daily increases and turnover rather than declines [1] - The market is currently less than 200 points away from the 3674-point level, and a breakthrough of this level could lead to increased inflow of outside capital, facilitating a smoother upward trend without significant adjustments [1] Group 2 - The current market environment offers numerous opportunities for investors, especially short-term investors, as the rotation characteristic makes it difficult to incur losses if the market rhythm is well-timed [2] - Investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid blindly chasing high prices, while focusing on the overall market trend and sector rotation [2] - Overall, the market trend is upward, with low-level sectors experiencing rotation and adjustments occurring through sustained increases and turnover [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced significant movements, with the ChiNext index reaching a peak due to stocks like New Yi Sheng and Zhong Ji rising sharply [2] - A total of 1,450 companies have disclosed their mid-year earnings forecasts, with 43% expecting positive results, indicating a mixed performance among companies [3] - Notable companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Chifeng Jilong Gold reported substantial profits, while others like Dazhihui and Vanke faced significant losses [3] Group 2 - The second quarter GDP growth was recorded at 5.2%, surpassing market expectations, which may reduce the need for large-scale fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year [4] - Economic data released showed a year-on-year increase in retail sales and industrial output, suggesting a positive trend in the economy [5] - The market is experiencing a divergence in investor sentiment, with some taking profits while others remain bullish despite potential risks from upcoming IPOs and tariff impacts [6]

"环青赛"作为全球同级别赛事中海拔最高、难度最大的公路自行车盛典，穿行于青海湖、祁连山等壮美 生态保护区，是人类极限挑战与生态礼赞的壮举。历经8天1400公里、穿越西宁、海东、海南州、海北 州的高海拔严酷挑战，哈萨克斯坦喜德盛阿斯塔纳车队的穆鲁布兰最终加冕总冠军。而象征着速度与拼 搏的"金徽酒冲刺王绿衫"，正是对"环青赛"竞技精神与金徽酒"志存高远、专注挑战"品牌内核的完美诠 释。 金徽酒与环青赛的战略合作，本质上是可持续发展理念的深度共鸣。赛事全程展示的青海生态文明建设 成果，与金徽酒根植秦岭生态产区的理念不谋而合。金徽酒坚持生态酿造，积极向消费者传递"高尚品 味、卓越品质、有机健康"生活主张，此次合作，既是金徽酒的品牌内核阐释，更是品牌正能量与健康 生活理念的有效传递。这场高山与美酒的对话，是实力与魅力的相互成就，生动实践了"绿色、人文、 和谐、体验"的共享理念，书写了体育精神与匠心品质相互赋能、共攀高峰的新篇章。 据了解，金徽酒此次深度参与"环青赛"，是金徽酒开拓青海市场战略的关键一步。自2022年大力开拓青 海市场以来，金徽酒精准把握市场特点，持续优化销售策略、营销架构与人力资源配置，加速推进甘青 一 ...

公开资料显示，汇添富沪深300安中指数A基金成立于2013年11月6日，截至2025年3月31日，汇添富沪 深300安中指数A规模15.25亿元，基金经理为吴振翔。 金融界2025年7月15日消息，汇添富沪深300安中指数A(000368) 最新净值1.9075元，增长0.56%。该基金 近1个月收益率4.06%，同类排名2905|3988；近3个月收益率7.13%，同类排名2727|3746；今年来收益率 1.72%，同类排名2737|3426。 汇添富沪深300安中指数A股票持仓前十占比合计24.15%，分别为：贵州茅台（4.67%）、长江电力 （3.10%）、美的集团（2.87%）、宁德时代（2.50%）、比亚迪（2.48%）、紫金矿业（2.48%）、五粮 液（1.82%）、中国神华（1.56%）、格力电器（1.44%）、万华化学（1.23%）。 简历显示：吴振翔先生:中国国籍,中国科学技术大学管理学博士,中国科学院数学与系统科学院应用数学 专业博士后。曾任长盛基金管理有限公司金融工程研究员、上投摩根基金管理有限公司产品开发高级经 理。2008年3月加入汇添富基金管理股份有限公司,历任产品开发高级经理、 ...