Report Information - Report Date: April 2, 2025 [18] - Analysts: Shi Cheng, Chen Sijie, Feng Fan [19] - Contact Person: Wang Yuwu [20] Market Analysis - On April 1, 2025, the main contract 2505 of lithium carbonate opened at 74,220 yuan/ton and closed at 74,360 yuan/ton, with a 0.49% increase from the previous settlement price [1] - The trading volume was 77,235 lots, and the open interest was 203,726 lots, a decrease of 6,885 lots from the previous trading day [1] - The total open interest of all contracts was 355,825 lots, a decrease of 6,762 lots from the previous trading day, and the total trading volume decreased by 12,413 lots [1] - The overall speculation degree was 0.29, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 19,135 lots, a decrease of 1,380 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, on April 1, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,400 - 74,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,650 - 72,650 yuan/ton, also up 100 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - It is estimated that the domestic lithium carbonate production in April will remain stable at a high level, with a change range of about 1% - 2% [2] - The supply of lithium hydroxide is highly concentrated, and the production of leading enterprises is relatively stable recently. The production in April is expected to be basically the same as that in March, with a year - on - year decrease of nearly 30% [2] - In April, market demand is expected to continue to grow, but the growth rate may slow down. The production of ternary materials is expected to increase by 7.22% month - on - month [2] - In April, as the lithium - battery market gradually enters the peak season, the production scheduling of phosphoric acid iron enterprises is expected to continue to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 68% [2] - Overall, the spot supply is still at a relatively high level, and there is an expectation of further increase. The spot transaction price shows a pattern of weak and volatile operation [2] - As the price falls, the downstream purchasing sentiment improves. The upstream lithium salt plants still have a certain sentiment of supporting prices, and a small number of lithium salt plants have reduced production, but the oversupply pattern has not been reversed [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Interval operation, sell on rallies for hedging [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear spread options [3]

Group 1: Company Overview and Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of CNY 15.134 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 4.663 billion in 2024, with a basic earnings per share of CNY 0.8812 [2] - The total assets amounted to CNY 45.783 billion, with total liabilities of CNY 6.189 billion, maintaining a safe debt level [2] - The company produced approximately 4.96 million tons of potassium chloride and sold about 4.6728 million tons in 2024, holding a market share of around 40% in the domestic potassium chloride market [2][3] Group 2: Lithium Production and Projects - The company produced about 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.92%, with sales reaching approximately 41,600 tons [3] - The new 40,000 tons lithium salt integrated project has a total investment optimization rate of approximately 14.58%, with a signed contract amount of CNY 4.243 billion [3][4] - The project construction is progressing well, with 55% of the overall project completed [4] Group 3: Stock and Shareholder Information - The company completed the cancellation of 141 million shares, accounting for 2.60% of the total share capital prior to cancellation [4] - The company is actively researching policies to optimize its financial structure and enhance shareholder returns, with plans for a more attractive and sustainable dividend policy [20] Group 4: Research and Development - The company invested CNY 200 million in R&D in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, completing nearly 100 research projects and applying for 114 patents [5] - The company aims to align its R&D efforts with national strategic needs, focusing on green low-carbon and digital transformation [5] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The company expects a net profit of CNY 1.13 billion to CNY 1.2 billion in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.97% to 28.47% [7] - The potassium chloride market is anticipated to see price increases due to supply-demand dynamics, with China’s potassium chloride import volume reaching 12.63 million tons in 2024, a 9% increase year-on-year [13] - The company is focusing on enhancing its production capacity to meet the growing demand for potassium fertilizer, which accounts for about 25% of global consumption [11][12] Group 6: Cost Control and Efficiency Improvement - The company emphasizes cost control as a core aspect of its management strategy, aiming to enhance economic efficiency and market competitiveness [9] - Various measures are being implemented to optimize resource utilization and reduce production costs, including technological upgrades and process optimization [15][16] - The company is committed to sustainable development through efficient resource management and cost reduction strategies [18][19]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The lithium carbonate market is under pressure from an oversupply situation that is difficult to fundamentally improve in the short - term and weakening cost support due to the loosening of lithium ore prices. The downstream material factories mainly conduct rigid - demand restocking, and the overall market trading atmosphere is stable. The upstream lithium salt factories have a strong willingness to support prices, but actual transactions are mainly between traders and downstream material factories. The option market shows a bullish sentiment with the call position dominant, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are near the 0 - axis and the red bars are slightly contracting. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position range trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 74,360 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 46,489 lots, up 7,282 lots; the position volume of the main contract is 203,726 lots, down 6,885 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 260 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 19,135 lots/ton, up 1,380 lots [2]. 现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 260 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 793 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 8,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 2,391 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 35,690 tons, up 560 tons; the monthly import volume is 12,327.97 tons, down 7,794.24 tons; the monthly export volume is 417.13 tons, up 18.53 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 42%, down 1 percentage point; the monthly output of power batteries is 100,300 MWh, down 7,500 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 60,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - lithium oxide is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 149,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 126,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 131,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 40%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 33,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 57%, unchanged; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 888,000 units, down 127,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 892,000 units, down 52,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 40.31%, up 1.35 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 1,835,000 units, up 628,000 units; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 131,000 units, down 19,000 units; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 282,000 units, up 100,000 units [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 14.47%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 13.17%, up 0.04 percentage points; the total call position is 201,060 lots, up 1,000 lots; the total put position is 59,941 lots, up 2,683 lots; the put - call ratio of the total position is 29.81%, up 1.1921 percentage points; the at - the - money implied volatility (IV) is 0.15%, down 0.0036 percentage points [2]. Industry News - During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival holiday in 2025, the price limit range and trading margin standards of various futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange remain unchanged. After trading resumes on April 7, 2025, the price limit range of industrial silicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 6%, the speculative trading margin standard to 8%, and the hedging trading margin standard to 7%; for lithium carbonate futures contracts, the price limit range will be adjusted to 8%, the speculative trading margin standard to 10%, and the hedging trading margin standard to 9%. - Guangdong has officially issued relevant regulations on the management of official vehicles for provincial - level government agencies and public institutions, promoting the use of new energy vehicles. - In March 2025, XPeng Motors delivered 33,205 smart electric vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 268%, and has delivered over 30,000 vehicles for five consecutive months. In the first quarter of 2025, XPeng Motors delivered a total of 94,008 smart electric vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 331%. - Xiaomi Auto added 15 stores in March, with 235 stores in 65 cities across the country. As of March 31, there were 127 service outlets covering 75 cities. In April, 33 new stores are planned to be added in 7 cities. - Li Auto's sales target for this year is 700,000 vehicles, with an internal expectation of 50,000 pure - electric vehicle sales and a supply - chain expectation of at least 140,000. The sales target for extended - range models is between 560,000 and 650,000 vehicles, with a monthly average of 46,700 - 54,100 vehicles. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4% respectively, up 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising for two consecutive months. The construction industry PMI reached a new high since June 2024, indicating an obvious economic recovery trend [2].