责任编辑 每日晨报 2025 年 7 月 4 日 银河观点集萃 美国 6 月非农新增就业 14.7 万人 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 宏观: 参议院版"大美丽法案"将赤字推上 7%——美国财政法案跟踪。 ● (1) 关税对于经济的负面冲击尚待显现,且即使 IEEPA 关税受阻,特朗普政府也 可能快速转向其他关税手段;在失业率可能温和上行、美联储仍有望在 9月开 启降息的情况下,美债收益率有进一步走低的空间。 (2)从财政角度来看, 5、6 月美国非短债的到期量并不大,且短债需求较好;季度融资会议目前给 出二、三季度的中长期国债净发行量平稳,且考虑关税后赤字扩张幅度短期仍 可控。 (3) 从更长期的角度来看, 4.5%-5.0%的长端美债收益率可能高过美 国的名义增长速度,且持续加大付息压力,因此最终不可持续,从这一角度考 虑长端利率也需要一定的降低。 通信:海洋经济政策东风劲吹,通信全方位赋能。2025年以来海洋经济催化 ● 不断,政策东风劲吹。2025年政府工作报告指出大力发展海洋经济,建设全 国海洋经济发展示范区,海洋经济 ...

从"深海科技"被纳入《工作报告》，到 钦点" 走出一条具有中国特色的向海图强之路 "，都奠定了海洋 经济在今年题材炒作中的地位。其中"海上风电"这个子类已有了相对成熟的规划和架构，弹性较好，本 文我们盘点北交所的海上风电概念股，请各位投资者前往北研君小号浏览。 "海风"吹到北交所，哪家最具吸引力？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK government has announced a plan to revitalize the struggling onshore wind industry, emphasizing its role as a key source of affordable and rapidly constructed electricity, which will enhance energy independence [1] Group 1 - The UK government lifted the de facto ban on new onshore wind farms nearly a year ago [1] - Energy Secretary Ed Miliband highlighted the importance of onshore wind in the report released by the working group [1] - Onshore wind is recognized as one of the cheapest and fastest sources of electricity available [1]

Core Insights - The successful completion of the foundation piling for the Qizhou Seven offshore wind farm project marks a significant breakthrough in deep-sea wind power development in Guangdong Province [1][5] - The project, located approximately 70 kilometers from the coast with a total installed capacity of 1 GW, is expected to generate enough electricity to power over one million households and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 2 million tons annually [1][5] Group 1: Project Overview - The Qizhou Seven offshore wind farm project is situated in the waters near Yanshi County, with a water depth ranging from 46 to 53 meters [1] - The project has a total installed capacity of 1 GW, which will significantly contribute to the green transformation of Guangdong's energy structure [1] Group 2: Construction Challenges and Solutions - The project faced challenges due to complex natural conditions such as deep water and offshore environments, with individual steel pipe piles weighing up to 337 tons and measuring 93 meters in length [2] - To ensure construction efficiency and precision, the project team utilized experienced construction vessels and implemented strict control over the execution of construction plans [2][4] Group 3: Management and Efficiency - The project adopted refined management practices to optimize construction efficiency, including tailored construction plans for each machine and continuous process optimization [3] - The construction cycle for a single steel pipe pile was successfully controlled to within 32 hours, significantly enhancing construction efficiency [3] Group 4: Collaboration and Safety - The successful progress of the project was attributed to the effective collaboration among various parties, including construction, supervision, and contracting units [4] - The project leadership maintained close oversight to ensure safety and efficiency throughout the construction process [4] Group 5: Strategic Implications - The successful implementation of the Qizhou Seven offshore wind project provides valuable engineering and management experience for deep-sea offshore wind power development in China [5] - This project supports Guangdong's offshore wind power development strategy and contributes to the high-quality development of the offshore wind equipment and innovation chain, aiding in the achievement of national "dual carbon" goals [5]

三一重能 20250703 摘要 国内风电市场价格上涨 5%-10%，预计下半年维持，主因整机企业自律、 业主关注全生命周期成本及风场收益预期下降。此趋势或为中长期影响， 需关注后续价格走势对整机企业盈利能力的影响。 国际风电市场快速增长，上半年海外订单超 1 吉瓦，预计全年超 2 吉瓦， 主流价格 2,500-3,000 元，毛利率良好。公司计划 2027-2028 年实现 50 亿规模，保持 20%以上毛利率，海外市场增长潜力巨大。 海上风电预计保持快速增长，明年增速或超陆上风电。公司已获 450 兆 瓦项目并动工，期望今年获 1 吉瓦以上订单，表明海上风电是重要增长 点，需关注项目进展及盈利情况。 受 136 号文影响，风场出售数量减少，价值评估困难。531 前并网项目 收益较好，出售仍在推进，预计今年实现 1 吉瓦目标。关注政策对收益 率的影响，以及缺电地区风场作为优质资产的盈利能力。 今年 1-5 月国内订单增长迅速，6 月放缓，上半年约 7 吉瓦。预计全年 市场份额提升 2 个百分点。需关注下半年订单情况，以及市场份额提升 对公司业绩的贡献。 国际风电市场保持快速增长态势。今年上半年海外订单已超过 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 削减支出方面，参议院加大医疗等福利支出削减力度、加快退出风电等新能源补贴。 医疗补助削减规模 从8000亿美元扩大到9300亿美元，或使1030万名低收入人群失去保障；食品券支出收紧；9月30日起取消 新能源购车抵免；为安抚农村票仓，新增250亿农村医院基金。 报告正文 2025年7月2日，《美丽大法案》在参议院以51比50的微弱优势获得通过。法案包括哪些内容？《美丽大 法案》的经济影响有多大？ 一、《美丽大法案》立法进展？参议院投票通过，立法进入冲刺阶段 《美丽大法案》已通过参议院投票环节，立法进入冲刺阶段。 北京时间2025年7月2日，《美丽大法案》 在参议院以51比50的微弱优势获得通过。三名共和党参议员柯林斯、蒂利斯、保罗因医保支出、债务上 限等问题与47名民主党人共同投票反对，副总统万斯投出关键一票。 流程上，法案仍需众议院审核，法案内容存在进一步修改的可能。 后续立法流程为：众议院规则委员会 审议→辩论→众议院投票→总统签署生效。预计众议院最早于美国时间7月2日上午审议该法案。若众议 院否决参议院的修改，则可能需进一步谈 ...

Group 1 - The current market sentiment is favorable for the ChiNext board, driven by strong performance in sectors such as stablecoins, pharmaceuticals, photovoltaics, military, and solid-state technologies [2] - High-frequency economic indicators show improvement in Q2 compared to Q1 across various industries, particularly in TMT (digital media, cinema, components, gaming), industrial products (motors, automation equipment, photovoltaics, wind power), and consumer goods (specialty chains, retail, tourism, medical devices) [2] - The upcoming earnings reports from high-performing companies, particularly in the ChiNext board, are expected to be released in early July, contributing to positive market momentum [3] Group 2 - The performance of the ChiNext index has been strong due to favorable fundamentals, with expectations for continued upward movement depending on upcoming non-farm payroll data [4] - Market expectations for non-farm payrolls suggest an addition of 110,000 jobs, down from the previous 139,000, indicating a potential shift towards lower interest rates if the data is disappointing [4] - The global trend of central banks, including the Federal Reserve, moving towards interest rate cuts is seen as beneficial for the stock market, particularly for the ChiNext board [5] Group 3 - The current market trend is identified as bullish, with a focus on capitalizing on short-term opportunities within the ChiNext board while maintaining awareness of broader market cycles [7] - Technical indicators, such as the MACD, suggest a supportive environment for the ChiNext board, indicating potential for further gains [7]

Core Viewpoint - EVE Energy, a leading lithium battery company from Huizhou, Guangdong, has submitted an application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the second lithium battery enterprise to achieve "A+H" listing after CATL [1][3]. Group 1: Company Strategy - EVE Energy's Vice President and Secretary Jiang Min stated that the primary motivations for the H-share listing are the need for significant funding to complete overseas factory construction and to broaden financing channels [3]. - The company aims to capitalize on the current hot market conditions in Hong Kong to secure a position for future capacity expansion [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a surge in activity, with 40 new stocks listed in the first half of 2025, raising a total of HKD 1,021 billion, a 33% increase in the number of listings and a 673% increase in financing compared to the same period in 2024 [4]. - A total of over 70 A-share companies have announced plans for H-share listings this year, indicating a trend among leading A-share companies to pursue IPOs in Hong Kong [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Characteristics - The current wave of A-share companies seeking H-share listings is characterized by a focus on manufacturing and consumer sectors, with notable examples including Haitian Flavoring and CATL [5][6]. - The trend began in the third quarter of 2024, primarily involving large-scale enterprises or industry leaders, which reflects a significant shift in the market dynamics [5]. Group 4: Policy Support - Recent policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission support leading A-share companies in pursuing listings in Hong Kong, enhancing cooperation between the two markets [7]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has optimized its listing approval process, reducing the regulatory assessment period to within 30 working days for compliant applications from A-share companies [7][8]. Group 5: Advantages of Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong capital market offers unique advantages for A-share companies, including a more flexible listing process and the ability to accommodate various equity structures [8]. - The international nature of the Hong Kong market facilitates the global expansion of mainland companies, making it an attractive option for dual listings [8].

为更好推进风电和光伏发电资源普查试点工作，保障《风电和光伏发电资源普查试点工作方案》各 项任务高质量完成， 7 月 2 日上午，国家能源局组织召开了风电和光伏发电资源普查试点中期工 作会议。国家能源局党组成员、副局长、风电和光伏发电资源普查试点工作小组组长万劲松出席会 议并讲话。 会上，河北省、内蒙古自治区、上海市、浙江省、西藏自治区和青海省等六个试点省份能源主管部 门，水电水利规划设计总院、中国气象局公共气象服务中心和国家海洋技术中心等技术支撑单位汇 报了试点工作开展情况；国家能源局新能源司介绍了试点工作总体进展，国家发展改革委、自然资 源部、生态环境部、中国气象局、国家林草局等试点工作小组成员单位进行了工作交流。 会议 对普查工作取得的成效给予充分肯定，并对下一步工作做了部署， 强调风光资源普查试点工 作要坚持 "高站位、高标准、高效率"的要求， 进一步提高对资源普查试点工作重要性的认识，把 质量要求贯穿普查工作全过程 ，切实深化各方协同， 加快工作进展，注重成果应用价值挖掘，以 高水平普查试点工作成果 助推国家 新型能源体系 高质量 建设 。 会议审议通过了《风电和光伏发电资源普查试点技术指南》和《关于 ...

Group 1 - The stock of Electric Wind Power (688660) has a comprehensive score of 56.50, indicating a strong performance [1] - The main cost analysis shows the following prices: 8.46 CNY for the current day, 8.54 CNY for the 5-day average, 8.32 CNY for the 20-day average, and 7.84 CNY for the 60-day average [1] - In the past year, the stock has experienced 6 instances of hitting the upper limit and 1 instance of hitting the lower limit [1] Group 2 - The stock has a northbound capital holding of 4.6308 million shares, accounting for 0.34% of the circulating shares [1] - The net buying yesterday was -425,200 shares, with a decrease in position ratio of -0.032% [1] - The 5-day increase in position ratio is -0.064%, while the 20-day increase is 0.02% [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates a short-term resistance level at 8.68 CNY and a support level at 8.44 CNY [2] - The mid-term resistance level is also at 8.68 CNY, with a support level at 7.79 CNY [2] - The current short-term and mid-term trends are unclear, awaiting direction from main capital [2] Group 4 - On July 3, 2025, the net outflow of main capital was 20.0273 million CNY, representing -17% of the total transaction amount [2] - The net outflow from large orders was 17.5269 million CNY, while the net outflow from super large orders was 2.5004 million CNY [2] - Retail investors experienced a net outflow of 393,700 CNY [2] Group 5 - The stock is associated with sectors such as wind power equipment (0.34%), central state-owned enterprise reform (0.20%), new energy (0.17%), and wind energy (-0.03%) [2]