联合资信 公用评级二部 |何泰|杜晗|霍聪聪 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－江西篇 江西省区位优越，自然资源和旅游资源丰富，形成了较为完善的陆、海、空综合交通运 输网络。2024 年，江西省经济总量居全国中游，人均 GDP 处全国中下游水平，一般公 共预算收入规模在全国排名处于中游水平，财政自给能力偏弱。受房地产市场低迷影响， 江西省政府性基金收入同比有所下降，上级补助收入对综合财力的贡献较大。2024 年 末，江西省整体债务负担处于全国中游水平。 从地市层面看，江西省下辖各地级市发展较不均衡，赣北地区经济发展水平总体领先， 以赣州为核心的赣南地区受益于政策支持，经济发展水平次之，赣西和赣东两地经济体 量相对较小，地区分化较为明显。江西省各地级市产业结构中第二产业和第三产业占比 较高，产业结构普遍呈现"三二一"的发展格局。2024 年，江西省各地级市一般公共预 算收入规模差异较大，南昌市一般公共预算收入远高于其余地级市，且财政自给率最高； 各地级市政府性基金收入整体较上年有所下降；各地级市获得的上级补助收入规模较大。 江西省各地级市政府债务余额均保持增长 ...

袁海霞建议，2026年中国财政赤字率提至4.5%-5%，货币延续宽松，以提振消费扩内需，优化债务管 理，深化改革并扩大制度型开放，推动经济稳步修复。 在年会期间，中诚信与海尔鑫海汇启动绿色产融数科生态合作，共同发布"绿E供应链票据通"，旨在响 应国家绿色金融政策导向，尤其在绿色供应链金融领域实现重要突破。 根据2025年最新政策，绿色贸易首次被纳入绿色金融支持范围，为绿色票据在贸易场景中的应用提供直 接政策依据。与此同时，票据信息标注与共享机制还能有效破解银企信息不对称问题，推动绿色票据实 现"可识别、可追溯、可享优惠"，有力支持绿色低碳转型与产业升级。双方将依托各自在ESG评估与产 融科技方面的核心能力，共建绿色金融基础设施，助力实体经济绿色可持续发展。（记者 陈植） 经济观察网 12月4日，中诚信国际举行"智驭风险·信立新篇——中诚信2026年信用风险展望年会"。 中诚信国际总裁岳志岗在年会期间表示，当前全球格局深度调整，新一轮科技革命与产业变革为我国带 来新机遇，国内经济虽处结构调整关键期、存在有效需求不足等问题，但经济结构优化、新旧动能转换 推进、科技创新驱动增强，为"十五五"高质量发展创造条件。 中 ...

新华财经北京12月4日电（王菁）4日，以"智驭风险·信立新篇"为主题的中诚信2026年信用风险展望年 会在上海举行。 岳志岗进一步表示，针对科创企业"轻资产、高成长、高波动"的特征，信用评估标准应该从传统"看过 去、看资产"逐步转向"看未来、看技术"。而在绿色转型方面，随着"双碳"目标的推进，ESG正逐渐成 为衡量企业可持续发展能力的重要参考，并逐步融入供应链体系建设。在这一过程中，科学、规范的信 用评价体系为ESG的落地提供了关键支撑。通过将ESG因素系统性地纳入信用评估框架，有助于市场参 与者有效识别绿色转型中的机遇与风险，为构建绿色和可持续的现代产业体系奠定信用基础。 （文章来源：新华财经） 如果说"智"是驾驭风险的手段，那么"信"就是夯实高质量发展的基础支撑。"健全的社会信用体系、规 范的企业治理结构与公平有序的市场环境，是金融强国建设的重要支柱。"岳志岗表示，作为信用服务 体系的重要组成部分，评级行业进一步完善方法论与模型体系，持续提升风险识别与定价能力，为资本 市场服务实体经济提供支持。 无论是"智驭风险"的实践，还是"信立新篇"的探索，最终都要服务于经济高质量发展大局，而科技创新 与绿色转型正是 ...

Core Insights - The conference organized by China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd. focused on the outlook for credit risk in 2026, emphasizing the importance of optimizing economic structure and technological innovation for high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The president of China Chengxin International highlighted that the ongoing optimization of economic structure and the steady transition of new and old growth drivers create favorable conditions for high-quality development [1] - The economic growth target for 2026 is likely to remain around 5%, with a relatively low difficulty in achieving this goal as the actual GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter only needs to reach 4.6% [3] Group 2: Risk Management and Technology - The integration of artificial intelligence and big data into financial services is crucial for enhancing risk management capabilities in a complex risk environment [2] - The development of index products is essential for risk identification, pricing, and diversification, providing objective benchmarks for efficient capital allocation [2] - A forward-looking, intelligent, and reliable credit risk prevention system is necessary for the healthy and stable operation of the credit market [2]

Core Insights - The report from the China Macroeconomy Forum (CMF) analyzes the performance of China's economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan and forecasts the outlook for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on growth trends, structural characteristics, risks, opportunities, and policy directions [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance in 2025 - In 2025, China's economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of approximately 4.9%, demonstrating a "front high, back low" trend due to external tariff impacts and internal real estate adjustments [1][2]. - Industrial production remains robust, with strong performance in manufacturing and services, while external demand exceeded expectations with a 4.5% increase in exports and a trade surplus surpassing $1.16 trillion [1][2][3]. - Domestic demand is notably weak, with consumption growth declining to 3% in the second half of the year and fixed asset investment decreasing by 2.5% [1][2][3]. Group 2: Transition to High-Quality Development - The 14th Five-Year Plan marked a critical transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, with the economy surpassing 134 trillion yuan and R&D investment intensity rising to 2.68% [2][3]. - Key challenges include insufficient domestic demand, weak original innovation, tightening fiscal constraints, and regional development disparities [2][3]. Group 3: Opportunities and Challenges in 2026 - The beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026 presents three major opportunities: proactive planning, more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and initial signs of recovery in microeconomic entities [2][3]. - However, challenges remain, including declining export growth, investment slowdown, spillover effects from real estate adjustments, declining employment quality, limited fiscal effectiveness, and credit risks in small financial institutions [2][3]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests setting a cross-cycle target of 4.5%-5% real GDP growth, 1%-3% CPI inflation, and over 5% nominal GDP growth as a guiding principle for macroeconomic policy during the 15th Five-Year Plan [3][4]. - Emphasis is placed on expanding domestic demand, optimizing macro policy combinations, and implementing moderately loose monetary policies to stimulate consumption and investment [3][4].

同时，马某疆（时任职务所在部门：联合资信评估股份有限公司市场委员会）因对上述违法违规行为负 有直接责任，被警告并处以罚款8万元。 北京商报讯（记者 刘四红）11月28日，中国人民银行北京市分行行政处罚决定信息公示表显示，联合 资信评估股份有限公司因违反不得以承诺高等级手段招揽业务管理规定、违反不得以承诺低收费手段招 揽业务管理规定、违反一致性原则管理规定，被警告并处以罚款67.95万元。 ...

本报记者 刘钊 11月27日至28日，"融汇琴澳 跨境协同 创见未来"——琴澳债券市场创新发展论坛在横琴粤澳深度合作区隆重召开。本次 论坛由横琴粤澳深度合作区金融发展局指导，远东资信评估有限公司主办，中华（澳门）金融资产交易股份有限公司 （MOX）协办，吸引了政策制定部门、金融基础设施与顶尖投资机构等近200名代表齐聚一堂，共同探讨债券工具创新路径， 解析琴澳跨境资产配置逻辑，推动琴澳债券市场生态繁荣发展。 关于坚持开拓创新，潘成龙表示这是当前最富挑战性的环节。如何让两套体系"对话"，要求在理念、方法、技术上全面创 新。在理念上，信用评级必须从传统"重资产、重规模"的评估模式，转向"重成长性、重发展韧性"，更关注企业的研发能力、 技术壁垒和跨境发展潜力。在方法上，需要探索建立一套既能衔接国际标准、又充分体现琴澳特色的跨境评级方法论，比如在 绿色债券评估中如何融合两地乃至国际认可的绿色标准，在科创债评估中如何建立对科技创新能力的公允跨境评价体系。在技 术上，则需审慎利用大数据、区块链等科技，探索在保障数据安全与合规的前提下，实现特定信用信息的跨境验证与共享，为 互认提供技术支撑。 在高效协同抓好落地方面，潘成龙 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Technology Board" in the bond market enhances the financing channels for small and medium-sized technology enterprises, optimizes the investment environment, and provides opportunities for the credit rating industry to innovate and upgrade its rating methods [1][2]. Group 1: Development of the Bond Market - The "Technology Board" aims to support the financing of small and medium-sized technology enterprises and enhance the bond market's service capabilities for the real economy [3][4]. - Since the announcement of the "Technology Board," the number of issued technology innovation bonds has reached 1,006, with a total issuance scale of 11,945 billion yuan, involving 342 technology enterprises [3]. Group 2: Opportunities for the Credit Rating Industry - The establishment of the "Technology Board" presents significant opportunities for the credit rating industry to expand its business and innovate its rating methods [6][7]. - The credit rating industry is encouraged to develop new rating methodologies that consider the unique characteristics of technology enterprises, such as their reliance on intellectual property and innovation potential [7][11]. Group 3: Enhancing Rating Distinction - The announcement requires rating agencies to design a forward-looking and distinctive rating symbol system for technology bonds, which will improve the differentiation of credit ratings [8][9]. - The introduction of a suffix "sti" to traditional rating symbols will highlight the uniqueness of technology bonds and enhance the clarity of credit ratings [9][14]. Group 4: Risk Management and Information Security - The credit rating agencies are advised to strengthen data security management to protect sensitive information related to technology enterprises during the rating process [15].

从订单降速到清欠发力，"一揽子"化 债第二阶段建筑企业信用风险怎么看？ 联合资信 工商评级一部 刘珺轩 赵兮 李旭 2023 年 7 月，中央政治局会议上提出"制定实施一揽子化债方案"，明确"保存 量、控增量"的化债核心思路。地方政府相关项目在建筑业需求端占据重要份额，本 文回顾了本轮化债以来建筑行业表现，并对后续化债进程对建筑行业的影响进行了研 判。从本轮化债的第一阶段情况看，样本建筑企业地方政府相关项目订单、收入均有 所下降，回款和周转效率恶化，特别是高地方政府项目占比的地方建筑国企短期偿付 压力偏大。"6+4+2 万亿"出台以来，本轮化债进入第二阶段，在央地债务结构优化以 及建立防范化解地方政府债务风险长效机制背景下，预计建筑行业整体需求结构将发 生持续调整，建工企业的信用水平将加大分化。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、"一揽子"化债政策梳理 本轮化债政策力度大、指向准，建立了监测口径更全、预算约束更强、监管问责 更严的长效机制，防风险与促发展并重，推动经济发展和债务管理良性循环。 自 2014 年以来，我国已推动多轮地方政府化债。2014 年开始的首轮"化债"主要 将存量债务纳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has upgraded Italy's sovereign credit rating to Baa2 and changed the outlook to "stable," reflecting the country's political stability and effective economic policies [1][1][1] Group 1: Rating Upgrade - Moody's had maintained Italy's credit rating at Baa3 since October 2018 until this recent upgrade [1] - The upgrade indicates a robust and sustained performance in Italy's political stability and economic policy [1][1] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Reforms - The upgrade is attributed to the effectiveness of economic and fiscal reforms, particularly under the "National Recovery and Resilience Plan" (PNRR) [1] - Italy is making good progress in achieving milestones and targets set by the PNRR, ranking among the top EU countries in terms of payment requests and disbursement amounts [1][1] Group 3: Government Response - Italy's Minister of Economy and Finance, Giancarlo Giorgetti, expressed satisfaction with Moody's decision, viewing it as a sign of confidence in the government's efforts and Italy's economic recovery [1]