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布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司:穆迪赞迪称美经济处于“悬崖边缘”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 11:05
Core Viewpoint - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi warns that the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next twelve months has risen to 48%, indicating a concerningly high level of risk [1][5] Economic Indicators - Zandi highlights a significant decrease in U.S. residential building permits as a critical signal of impending economic recession, with current permit approvals nearing the lowest levels seen during the pandemic [1] - The ongoing weak demand from homebuyers and an increase in unsold homes have led builders to substantially reduce their development plans [1] Upcoming Data and Federal Reserve Actions - Zandi advises close attention to the upcoming August loan data to be released on September 17, coinciding with a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where a rate cut is widely anticipated [3] - He suggests that this data may provide the Federal Reserve with additional justification for a rate cut, although he expresses skepticism about the effectiveness of such measures in preventing a recession [3] Overall Economic Outlook - Zandi has repeatedly warned of economic risks, stating that while the probability of recession has not exceeded 50%, the current risk level is historically high and warrants caution [5] - A combination of factors, including a slowdown in the real estate market, tightening credit conditions, and weakened consumer demand, poses a threat to a soft landing for the economy [5] - The effectiveness of potential monetary policy adjustments in countering the current downward pressures remains uncertain, with market participants and economists closely monitoring forthcoming data releases to assess the true trajectory of the U.S. economy [5]
9月15日上期所沪金期货仓单较上一日增加276千克
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-15 09:33
Group 1: Gold Futures Market - The total amount of gold futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange is 53,226 kilograms, with an increase of 276 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The opening price of gold futures on September 15 was 833.82 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 835.34 yuan and a low of 828.42 yuan, with a current price of 831.60 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.10% [1] - The trading volume for the day was 131,159 contracts, while the open interest decreased by 4,918 contracts to 104,349 contracts [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for September recorded 55.4, below the market expectation of 58 and the previous value of 58.2, indicating consumer concerns about potential negative developments in the labor market [2] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of significant slowdown, influenced by tariff policies, with expectations of weak growth in Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year, projecting only 1.25% growth in 2026, significantly lower than the 2.8% expected for 2024 [2] - New data indicates that the number of new jobs expected from March 2024 to March 2025 is only half of the initial projections, alongside early signs of weakness in U.S. industrial production [2] Group 3: France's Credit Rating - Fitch Ratings downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+, citing a lack of a credible fiscal consolidation plan supported by a majority [3]
企业都好起来啦?不是AAA发债都拿不出手
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-15 05:17
导读 壹||从2025年新发债券市场来看,Wind数据显示,信用债新发行债券中AAA级债券的金额占比更是超过 90%。相较2016年,9年时间,这一数字上升了近97%; 贰||市场违约数据的下行,也为"国企信仰"提供了底气。根据新世纪评级报告,2025年上半年债券市场 违约规模同比大幅下降73%,且主要集中于个别破产重整案件。 叁||导致AAA评级"绝对占领"市场的另一重原因,来自行业内部日趋激烈的竞争。这种"级别竞争"正在 无形中推高发行人的心理预期,也让坚守标准的评级机构陷入被动。 肆||上述头部评级机构高管认为,评级业务收费较低,评级机构理应高度重视自身的长期生存能力,而 声誉正是其关键所在,必须倍加爱惜自己的羽毛。 "其他家可以给高评级,如果你们不能给,我们就找别家做。"这一句债券发行人的话,像一根刺,扎在 王涛心里。他听得出来,对方语气平淡,却没有一点商量的余地。 王涛是国内某大型知名评级机构的高管,深耕评级行业近20年。2025年以来,他愈发明显地感受到,展 业压力增大了不少。"特别是新增的国企客户,常常开口就问'能不能给AAA'。"王涛苦笑着说,"评级 机构好像变得更加'弱势'了。" 从发行端来 ...
企业都好起来啦?不是AAA发债都拿不出手
经济观察报· 2025-09-14 04:34
在这场由投资者"国企信仰"、发行人结构变迁、行业激烈竞争 以及监管变革共同演绎下的"AAA大戏"中,裹挟于其中的评级 机构屡屡出现"动作变形"。 作者: 蔡越坤 封图:图虫创意 导读 壹 || 从2025年新发债券市场来看,Wind数据显示,信用债新发行债券中AAA级债券的金额占 比更是超过90%。相较2016年,9年时间,这一数字上升了近97%; 贰 || 市场违约数据的下行,也为"国企信仰"提供了底气。根据新世纪评级报告,2025年上半 年债券市场违约规模同比大幅下降73%,且主要集中于个别破产重整案件。 叁 || 导致AAA评级"绝对占领"市场的另一重原因,来自行业内部日趋激烈的竞争。这种"级别 竞争"正在无形中推高发行人的心理预期,也让坚守标准的评级机构陷入被动。 肆 || 上述头部评级机构高管认为,评级业务收费较低,评级机构理应高度重视自身的长期生 存能力,而声誉正是其关键所在,必须倍加爱惜自己的羽毛。 "其他家可以给高评级,如果你们不能给,我们就找别家做。"这一句债券发行人的话,像一根刺, 扎在王涛心里。他听得出来,对方语气平淡,却没有一点商量的余地。 王涛是国内某大型知名评级机构的高管,深耕评级 ...
【金融头条】企业都好起来了?不是AAA发债都拿不出手
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-09-14 03:48
经济观察报 记者 蔡越坤 "其他家可以给高评级,如果你们不能给,我们就找别家做。"这一句债券发行人的话,像一根刺,扎在王涛心里。 他听得出来,对方语气平淡,却没有一点商量的余地。 王涛是国内某大型知名评级机构的高管,深耕评级行业近20年。 2025年以来,他愈发明显地感受到,展业压力增大了不少。"特别是新增的国企客户,常常开口就问'能不能给AAA'。" 王涛苦笑着说,"评级机构好像变得更加'弱势'了。" 从发行端来看,债券评级的结果也大多集中在AAA级。 94.22%——这是2025年1至8月,中国信用债市场新发行债券中AAA级债券的金额占比。相比之下,2016年同期该比例仅为47.78%,不到现在的一半。债券 发行市场的格局在改变,AAA级以下的债券近乎消失了! 从数量上看,Wind数据显示,2025年前8个月发行的1196只一般公司债中,有1016只的主体评级达到AAA,占比高达85%。而2016年,这一比例仅为40%。 前述固收投资人直呼:"不看外部评级了,外部评级只是一个参考,主要还是根据公司内部评级体系进行综合判断。" 一名券商资产管理部从事固收投资的人士分享了其团队的投资决策流程。尽管外部评级提供 ...
法国:惠誉9月12日下调其主权信用评级
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-13 08:15
本文由 AI算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 【惠誉当地时间9月12日下调法国主权信用评级】在政治与财政双重危机的背景下,美国信用评级机构 惠誉当地时间9月12日宣布下调法国主权信用评级,从AA-。根据惠誉的评估,法国缺乏一个由多数派 支持的、可信的财政整顿方案,而这正是此次评级下调的主要原因。 ...
法国主权信用评级被下调!
Yang Shi Xin Wen Ke Hu Duan· 2025-09-13 01:38
Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+ due to a lack of a credible fiscal consolidation plan supported by a majority [1] Economic Indicators - France's fiscal deficit for 2024 is projected to reach 5.4% of GDP, while public debt totals 114% of GDP [1] - Debt interest payments are expected to be €67 billion this year, potentially exceeding €100 billion by 2030 [1] Political Context - Ongoing political instability raises uncertainty regarding the passage of the 2026 budget [1] Market Reactions - Some analysts believe the downgrade's impact on interest rates may be limited as the market had anticipated it [1] - Others warn that the downgrade could trigger investment restrictions for large funds, leading to selling pressure on French government bonds and increasing financing costs [1] Comparative Analysis - Currently, France's government bond yields are higher than those of Spain, Portugal, and Greece, only slightly lower than Italy [1]
惠誉下调法国评级,预计债务占GDP比重到2027年将超过120%
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-13 01:29
惠誉认为法国不断上升的公共债务削弱了应对新冲击的能力,任何新的危机都可能进一步恶化公共财政 状况。此外,政治不稳定进一步加剧了财政整顿的难度。 自2024年年中举行临时立法选举以来,法国已更换三届政府,政府在不信任投票中的败北凸显了国内政 治的日益分化和极化。 惠誉预计,政治僵局很可能延续至2027年总统选举之后,使得将这一目标变得不太可能实现。选举周期 的临近将进一步限制近期财政整顿的空间。 惠誉下调法国评级至A+,债务高企与政治困境引担忧。 9月12日,惠誉评级发表报告,将法国的主权信用评级从AA-下调至A+,比英国低一级,与比利时持 平。降级的核心因素包括法国债务占GDP比重将持续攀升,预计从2024年的113.2%增至2027年的 121%,且在可预见的未来缺乏明确的债务稳定化路径。 惠誉指出,法国这一债务水平在A级和AA级主权国家中排名第三,2024年的债务比率已是A级主权国家 中位数的两倍,较2019年水平高出15个百分点。 惠誉指出,法国的税收与GDP之比高达45.6%,为欧盟最高,这限制了进一步增税的空间。 与此同时,旨在控制社会支出的结构性改革在过去十年中成效有限,并遭遇了巨大的政治和社会阻 ...
财政、政治陷双重危机,惠誉下调法国主权信用评级
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 23:28
Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+ due to a lack of a credible fiscal consolidation plan supported by a majority [1] Economic Indicators - France's fiscal deficit for 2024 is projected to reach 5.4% of GDP [1] - Total public debt is equivalent to 114% of GDP [1] - Debt interest expenditure is expected to be €67 billion this year, potentially exceeding €100 billion by 2030 [1] Political Context - Ongoing political instability raises uncertainty regarding the approval of the 2026 budget [1] - Economist Eric Dor stated that the downgrade is logical given the absence of a sustainable fiscal consolidation path [1] Market Implications - The downgrade may have dual impacts on France's financing environment; some analysts believe the market had already anticipated the downgrade, limiting its effect on interest rates [1] - Conversely, there are concerns that the downgrade could trigger investment restrictions for large funds, leading to selling pressure on French government bonds and increasing financing costs [1] Comparative Analysis - Currently, France's government bond yields are higher than those of Spain, Portugal, and Greece, and only slightly lower than Italy [1]
财政、政治陷双重危机 惠誉下调法国主权信用评级
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-09-12 23:20
Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+ due to a lack of a credible fiscal consolidation plan supported by a majority [1] Economic Indicators - France's fiscal deficit for 2024 is projected to reach 5.4% of GDP [1] - Total public debt is equivalent to 114% of GDP [1] - Debt interest expenditure is expected to be €67 billion this year, potentially exceeding €100 billion by 2030 [1] Political Context - Ongoing political instability raises uncertainty regarding the approval of the 2026 budget [1] - Economist Eric Dor stated that the downgrade is logical given the absence of a sustainable fiscal consolidation path [1] Market Implications - The downgrade may have dual impacts on France's financing environment; some analysts believe the market had already anticipated this downgrade, limiting its effect on interest rates [1] - Conversely, there are concerns that the downgrade could trigger investment restrictions for large funds, leading to selling pressure on French government bonds and increasing financing costs [1] Comparative Analysis - Currently, France's government bond yields are higher than those of Spain, Portugal, and Greece, and only slightly lower than Italy [1]