中国中免（601888）(01880)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.5%，报65.05港元，成交额2.59亿港元。 消息面上，海口海关数据显示，2025年1月至8月，海口海关共监管海南离岛免税销售金额204.3亿元， 免税购物人数314.8万人次，免税购物件数1867.1万件。其中8月，海南离岛免税销售额约21.05亿元，同 比减少4.2%，降幅环比收窄。兴业证券认为，展望全年，伴随同期基数逐步走低、政府及公司的加力 提振，对应海南销售压力有望减轻。同时口岸免税同店持续修复，口岸及市内店新渠道陆续开拓，公司 基本面转折或已在即。 商务部等9部门9月16日对外发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》提出五方面19条举措，包括开 展"服务消费季"系列促消费活动等。9月17日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍扩大服务消费 有关政策措施。商务部副部长盛秋平介绍，截至8月底，全国离境退税商店已超过1万家，是2024年底的 3倍；1—8月，享受离境退税人数同比增长248%，退税销售额增长98%。 ...

商务部等9部门9月16日对外发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》提出五方面19条举措，包括开 展"服务消费季"系列促消费活动等。9月17日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍扩大服务消费 有关政策措施。商务部副部长盛秋平介绍，截至8月底，全国离境退税商店已超过1万家，是2024年底的 3倍；1—8月，享受离境退税人数同比增长248%，退税销售额增长98%。 消息面上，海口海关数据显示，2025年1月至8月，海口海关共监管海南离岛免税销售金额204.3亿元， 免税购物人数314.8万人次，免税购物件数1867.1万件。其中8月，海南离岛免税销售额约21.05亿元，同 比减少4.2%，降幅环比收窄。兴业证券认为，展望全年，伴随同期基数逐步走低、政府及公司的加力 提振，对应海南销售压力有望减轻。同时口岸免税同店持续修复，口岸及市内店新渠道陆续开拓，公司 基本面转折或已在即。 智通财经APP获悉，中国中免(01880)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.5%，报65.05港元，成交额2.59亿港元。 ...

Group 1 - The government has introduced 19 specific measures to boost service consumption, focusing on enhancing service supply and attracting foreign consumers [1][3] - The measures cover a wide range of industries, including internet, culture, telecommunications, sports events, education, and high-end healthcare, indicating a favorable policy environment for these sectors [1][3] - The emphasis is on addressing the supply-side shortage of quality services through financial support and policy adjustments, which is expected to invigorate the service consumption market [1][2] Group 2 - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, with service retail sales growing by 5.1% [2] - The overall consumption trend remains positive, with expectations for further policy support to boost consumption, potentially increasing the annual growth rate of retail sales to around 4.5% [2][4] - Analysts suggest a shift in policy focus from physical investments to experience-based service consumption, highlighting the importance of government support for service supply [4] Group 3 - Companies like Huazhu Group and Trip.com are expected to benefit from the recovery in tourism consumption, with Huazhu's EBITDA projected to grow by 5% to 1.5 billion yuan [5] - Trip.com anticipates a revenue growth of 12%-17% in 2025, benefiting from policies aimed at attracting foreign consumers [5] - Hong Kong Travel and China Duty Free are positioned to gain from inbound tourism and enhanced duty-free shopping opportunities, with potential increases in visitor numbers and sales [6]

Business Overview - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 2,089.60 million in the first half of 2025, representing an 8.52% increase year-on-year [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 49.53 million, a growth of 24.39% compared to the previous year [2] - The net asset value at the end of the period was CNY 2,260.86 million, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 124.78 million, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 39.03% and a weighted average return on equity of 2.16% [2] Travel Business - The core entity for the travel business is Guangzhou Guangzhi Travel International Co., Ltd., which is a leading domestic travel agency [3] - In the first half of 2025, the travel business generated revenue of CNY 1,535.71 million, an 11.78% increase year-on-year [3] - Revenue from outbound tourism (excluding Hong Kong and Macau) was CNY 848.81 million, while domestic tourism revenue was CNY 498.20 million [3] - The net profit for the travel business was CNY 23.29 million, up 34.91% year-on-year [3] Accommodation Business - The accommodation segment includes hotel management and operations, focusing on brand development and capital operation [4] - Revenue from the accommodation business was CNY 118.56 million, a 1.60% increase year-on-year [5] - The net profit for the accommodation segment was CNY 9.73 million, reflecting a 23.26% growth compared to the previous year [5] - The company’s hotel management entity ranks 14th in the "Top 60 Hotel Groups in China" [4] Scenic Area Development - The company has established Guangzhou Guangzhi Travel Yujing Destination Tourism Development Co., Ltd. to manage scenic area projects [6] - Scenic areas managed include the Mingchun Valley and Yuexi Academy, with plans to expand to other provinces [7] - The company is collaborating with various partners to enhance brand marketing and expand the tourism industry chain [7] Senior Tourism Initiatives - The company launched the "Leisure and Active" club in 2024, focusing on tourism products for the elderly [8] - In 2025, new products such as the "Travel Residence 2.0" series and specialized trains were introduced to cater to the senior market [8] Duty-Free Business - The company has partnered with China Duty Free Group and others to establish a duty-free store in Guangzhou [10] - The registered capital for the joint venture is CNY 45 million, with the company holding a 19.50% stake [10] - The first city duty-free store opened in August 2025, enhancing the shopping experience for outbound travelers [10] Cruise Tourism - The company has established a "Cruise Membership Club" to enhance the cruise business [12] - A four-tier membership system is being developed to provide unique experiences and foster long-term relationships with high-net-worth clients [12]

Core Viewpoint - The newly opened city duty-free shops are performing well in terms of customer traffic, but the overall duty-free industry is still under pressure [12]. Group 1: City Duty-Free Shops Performance - The city duty-free shops in Guangzhou and Shenzhen opened on August 26 and have seen good customer traffic since their opening, especially on weekends [3][4]. - Popular products include electronic items like headphones and tablets, as well as "Guochao" (national trend) products [3][8]. - The shops cater to travelers who are about to depart within 60 days and require valid entry documents and tickets [6]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - Despite the positive performance of new city duty-free shops, the overall duty-free industry faces challenges, including a decline in sales at other types of duty-free stores [12]. - For instance, from January to June 2025, the duty-free shopping amount in Hainan's offshore duty-free stores was 16.76 billion yuan, down 9.2% year-on-year, with a significant drop in the number of shoppers [12]. - Major companies like China Duty Free Group reported a revenue of approximately 28.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 9.96% year-on-year, while Wangfujing's duty-free business saw a revenue drop of 15.93% [12][14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry is transitioning from a "price war" to "value service," aiming for high-quality development [14]. - The opening of the first city duty-free shop in Wuhan has provided valuable operational experience for companies in this sector [14]. - The overall market is expected to benefit from the recovery of cross-border tourism and improved consumer purchasing power [14].

Core Viewpoint - The opening of new city duty-free shops in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is revitalizing the duty-free industry, attracting significant customer traffic and offering a diverse range of products [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections New City Duty-Free Shops - Two city duty-free shops in Guangzhou and Shenzhen opened on August 26, 2024, and have been operational for over two weeks, experiencing good customer traffic, especially on weekends [3][4]. - The shops are established by China Duty Free Group in collaboration with local partners, marking the first city duty-free stores in these cities [4]. Product Offerings and Customer Engagement - The shops feature a variety of products, including electronics, beauty products, high-end liquor, and cultural items, with a notable interest in "Guochao" (national trend) products [7][8]. - Sales personnel reported that customers are particularly interested in comparing prices, with significant savings noted on products like Apple devices compared to prices in Taiwan [7]. Industry Performance and Trends - Despite the positive performance of the new shops, the overall duty-free industry faces challenges, including a decline in sales at other types of duty-free stores [9][10]. - Data from Haikou Customs indicates a decrease in duty-free shopping amounts in Hainan, with a 9.2% drop in the first half of 2025, although the decline is slowing [9]. - Companies like China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing reported revenue declines in their duty-free segments, with China Duty Free achieving approximately 28.2 billion yuan in revenue, down 9.96% year-on-year [9][10].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Retail Sector**: In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by approximately 3.4% year-on-year, with offline sales showing resilient growth while online sales remained stable [2][4]. - **Restaurant Industry**: Restaurant revenue increased by 2.1% year-on-year, influenced by factors such as the alcohol ban, improved weather, and a low base from the previous year [1][5]. - **Hotel Industry**: The hotel sector experienced a decline in occupancy rates due to weak summer travel demand and oversupply, but a slowdown in supply may lead to a long-term reversal [1][6]. - **Automotive Market**: The automotive market's retail sales totaled approximately 409.3 billion yuan in August, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%. Notably, passenger car exports surged by 22% [1][8][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Automotive Trends**: The rise of high-end domestic brands, particularly in the 200,000 yuan and above segment, is driving the penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs), which saw sales of 1.28 million units in August, a 22% increase year-on-year [1][10]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: NEVs accounted for about 50% of total vehicle sales in August, with cumulative sales from January to August reaching approximately 893,000 units, reflecting a 34% year-on-year growth [9]. - **High-End Market Dynamics**: The ultra-luxury car market continues to grow, with brands like Zun Jie performing exceptionally well in deliveries [10][11]. - **Component Sector Focus**: The future of the automotive components sector is centered on smart driving, robotics, and liquid cooling technology, with the latter expected to see a tenfold increase by 2026 [12][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Recommendations**: For the upcoming months, it is suggested to focus on high-performing stocks that may experience pullbacks and to position for stocks with strong earnings visibility in the fourth quarter [4]. - **Household Appliances**: The household appliance sector saw a year-on-year retail growth of 14.3% in August, with significant performance variations across product categories [23][24]. - **Cleaning Products**: The cleaning product category showed remarkable growth, with online sales of robotic vacuums and floor washers increasing by over 80% [25][26]. - **Textile and Apparel Sector**: The textile and apparel industry showed good retail performance in August, with many brands experiencing a rebound, potentially influenced by the stock market's wealth effect [15][16]. Future Trends and Strategies - **Consumer Goods**: The consumer goods sector is expected to continue its recovery, with a focus on companies that can maintain pricing power and cost transfer capabilities [22]. - **Light Industry**: Investment strategies in the light industry should focus on new product penetration and international expansion opportunities [18][19]. - **Food and Beverage Sector**: The food and beverage sector is projected to maintain steady growth, with a focus on high-end brands and those benefiting from supply chain standardization [20][22]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the performance and trends across various industries, along with strategic insights for future investments.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [5]. Core Insights - In August 2025, the total retail sales in China grew by 3.4% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations. The total retail sales reached 4.0 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month decline of 0.3 percentage points [5]. - Online retail sales continued to show strong growth, with a year-to-date increase of 9.6% and an online penetration rate of 25.6% in August, up from 24.8% in the same month last year [5]. - The government has introduced several policies to boost consumption, including personal consumption loans and interest subsidies for service industry loans, which are expected to support consumer spending [5]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - August retail sales reached 3.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%. The service sector's production index increased by 5.6% year-on-year [5]. - The retail sales of essential goods such as daily necessities and food maintained strong growth, with categories like furniture and gold showing double-digit increases [5]. E-commerce and Online Retail - Online retail sales in August amounted to 1,017.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1%. The online retail penetration rate increased significantly, indicating a solidified consumer mindset towards online shopping [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for sectors benefiting from consumption recovery, including e-commerce, travel, and premium consumer goods. Specific companies highlighted include Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and various jewelry brands [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the consumer services sector [11] Core Insights - In H1 2025, the overall industry revenue increased by 1.0% year-on-year, indicating a stable upward trend, while the overall non-recurring net profit decreased by 7.1% year-on-year. However, in Q2 2025, the non-recurring net profit increased by 15% year-on-year, showing a recovery in profitability [2][19] - Structural opportunities are emerging across various segments, with notable improvements in profitability for human resources and hotel sectors [2][19] Revenue Overview - In H1 2025, the revenue growth was driven by a price-volume trade-off, with human resources, outbound tourism, education, dining, and scenic spots showing year-on-year increases of 10.7%, 8.6%, 3.4%, 3.3%, and 0.5% respectively. The duty-free sector is gradually recovering from a weak period, with a year-on-year decline of 10.1% [20][19] - The hotel industry faced pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7% in performance [20] Profitability Analysis - The overall non-recurring net profit for the industry in H1 2025 decreased by 7.1%, but improved by 15% in Q2 2025. The human resources and hotel sectors saw increases of 6.4% and 1.0% respectively in H1 2025 [24][19] - The duty-free, dining, education, and scenic sectors experienced significant declines in non-recurring net profit, primarily due to weak consumer recovery in Q1 [24][19] Cash Flow Insights - The overall operating cash flow net amount decreased by 15.72% year-on-year in H1 2025, with the dining sector showing a positive growth of 28.89% [31][19] - By Q2 2025, the operating net cash flow for outbound tourism and education sectors turned positive, with increases of 38.51% and 18.02% respectively [31][19] Sector-Specific Highlights - **Tea Beverage**: The segment continues to thrive, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by delivery services and seasonal demand. Notable brands like Gu Ming are recommended for their robust growth potential [7][50] - **Dining**: The sector is recovering, but performance among listed companies varies. Brands with strong value propositions and rapid expansion are highlighted for investment [7][52] - **Education**: Quality institutions are experiencing steady growth, with a focus on AI applications enhancing revenue and profit margins. Recommended companies include Xue Da Education and Action Education [8][50] - **Human Resources**: The demand is structurally improving, with AI technology enhancing efficiency and reducing reliance on manual labor. Recommended companies include Keri International and Beijing Human Resources [8][50] - **Scenic Spots**: The tourism sector is witnessing growth in visitor numbers, supported by favorable policies. Recommended companies include Tianmu Lake and Songcheng Performance [8][50] - **Hotels**: The sector is under pressure, but major hotel groups are achieving cost reductions and efficiency improvements. Recommended companies include Shoulu Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel [9][50] - **Duty-Free**: The decline in offshore duty-free sales is narrowing, with positive trends in port stores. Recommended company is China Duty Free [9][50]

Core Insights - The report indicates a divergence in performance within the social services sector, with leading companies outperforming their peers [5][7] - The overall revenue for the service consumption sector increased by 1.4% year-on-year in 1H2025, reaching 134% of 2019 levels, while profits declined by 11.5%, recovering to 79% of 2019 levels [12][15] - Key segments such as K12 education, human resources, and scenic areas showed both revenue and profit growth, while hotels, restaurants, tourism retail, and higher education faced challenges [12][13] Social Services Overview - In 1H2025, K12 training and human resources sectors saw revenue growth of 14.4% and 10.7%, respectively, with net profits increasing by 39.5% and 49.8% [12][15] - Scenic areas also reported growth, with revenues up by 3.9% and net profits by 2.4% [15] - Conversely, the hotel sector experienced a revenue decline of 4.5% and a significant profit drop of 40.6% [13][15] Travel Services - The hotel industry remains under pressure, with leading hotels like Huazhu Group and Shoulv Hotel showing resilience despite a decline in RevPAR [16][19] - In 1H2025, leading hotels continued to expand, with Huazhu adding 990 new hotels [16][18] - OTA companies benefited from overall travel demand, with significant growth in overseas business [7][24] Scenic Areas and OTA - Domestic tourism numbers surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with a 20.6% increase in travel volume in 1H2025 [24] - Scenic area performance varied, with Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Jiuhua Tourism showing strong growth, while Changbai Mountain faced challenges due to weather [29] - The average ticket price for domestic travel has not fully recovered, remaining at 95% of 2019 levels [24] Professional Services - The human resources sector is experiencing a mild recovery, with companies like Keri International and BOSS Zhipin performing well [7][16] - The education sector, particularly K12 training, continues to thrive, with a focus on AI applications enhancing efficiency [7][16] - The exhibition industry is awaiting macroeconomic improvements to boost performance [7][16] Restaurant and Tea Beverage Sector - The restaurant industry is under pressure, with same-store sales declining, while budget-friendly dining options are showing resilience [7][12] - The tea beverage sector is expanding, with leading brands like Mixue and Gu Ming performing exceptionally well [7][12]