2026 年度策略：看好内需顺周期主线，出海关注龙头 Alpha20260107 摘要 顺周期贝塔领域优先关注需求改善的出行链行业，如航空、酒店、旅游 等，受政策催化影响大，需求改善明显，带动估值提升，航空业已体现 一定弹性。 高端消费领域重点推荐免税和高端黄金珠宝，市场对涨价预期看好，具 有估值加业绩双驱动特征，如中国中免、老铺黄金和潮宏基等。 性价比大众消费当前需求边际改善不明确，供给不稀缺，复苏较晚，依 赖收入提升或 PPI、CPI 数据改善，应寻找竞争格局改善的细分行业龙头。 逆周期行业如教育，需求刚性较强，职业教育、公考景气度稳中有升， 供给侧龙头格局清晰，AI 技术应用是效率催化剂，关注华图山鼎、中国 东方教育等。 出海方面，预计 2026 年下半年有更多机会，出口具韧性，美国实际需 求好于预期，具备阿尔法属性的龙头公司将通过业绩增长驱动，如安克 创新、巨星科技、小商品城等。 Q&A 2026 年商社板块的年度策略是什么？ 2026 年商社板块的年度策略主要分为内需和出海两部分。在内需方面，重点 关注高端消费和顺周期行业；在出海方面，关注龙头企业的表现。 内需方面有哪些重点领域？ 内需方面主要分为 ...

1月2日，游客在cdf海口日月广场免税店选购免税商品。自海南自贸港启动全岛封关以来，离岛免税购物热度 持续走高。 苏弼坤摄（中经视觉） 1月1日，广西南宁市良庆区"南宁之夜"文旅街区灯火璀璨，市民与游客逛市集、品美食、观表演，乐享假 日。 曾祥忠摄（中经视觉） 1月5日，消费者在浙江省湖州市德清县一卖场选购电子产品。随着首批625亿元国补资金下达，新一轮消费品 以旧换新政策全面落地。 姚海翔摄（中经视觉） 2025年12月27日拍摄的北京湾里·王府井WellTown。作为区域重点文旅项目，其"商业+文旅"的融合模式释放 强劲消费动能。 朱大军摄（中经视觉） 1月1日，四川省乐山市市中区一大型商业购物中心里，消费者在挑选新款手机。 李华时摄（中经视觉） 1月2日，市民在江苏省南京市老门东历史文化街区一家餐厅品尝美食。史 俊摄（中经视觉） ...

加仓节点：股价回调至20日均线（约380元）时加30%，2026年Q1季报超预期后加满剩余40%。 2. 紫金矿业(601899)：首次建仓25% 各位朋友，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者，中长线投资最讲究"少而精、准而稳"。今天就给大家浓 缩出5只核心标的组合，每只都踩在政策红利和资金风口上，还附上首次建仓比例和分批加仓节点，跟 着节奏布局，心里更有底。 一、核心标的组合（总仓位100%） 1. 宁德时代(300750)：首次建仓30% 核心逻辑不用多讲，全球动力电池龙头，储能业务增速超60%，中金给的A股目标价445元，2026年海 外产能集中释放，不管是新能源车还是储能，需求都稳得很。 4. 东方财富(300059)：首次建仓15% 铜+黄金双主线，AI算力和新能源都离不开铜，黄金还能对冲地缘政治风险，2025年前三季度净利润增 55%，估值比行业中位数还低。 加仓节点：上证指数回踩3974点支撑位时加30%，股价回落到主力成本线30.38元附近补剩余45%。 3. 中国中免(601888)：首次建仓20% 互联网券商的流量王者，现在A股新开户数创近三年新高，市场活跃度起来了，它的佣金和基金代销业 务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities emphasizes the importance of the Hainan sector and the elasticity of sub-sectors during the Spring Festival peak season in the short term, while mid-term prospects focus on new consumption, growth potential, transformation reforms, overseas expansion, and favorable policies. Group 1: Short-term Focus - The Hainan sector is highlighted due to the impact of the closure policy and the upcoming consumption peak season, with recommendations to focus on duty-free (supported by policies and improving fundamentals), cross-border e-commerce (Black Friday and Christmas promotions), certain scenic spots (ice and snow economy), supermarkets, and gold jewelry during the Spring Festival [1] - The cyclical sectors such as duty-free, hotels, and catering have shown month-on-month improvements, suggesting continued observation and validation [1] Group 2: Mid-term Outlook - By 2026, the report suggests maintaining focus on overseas expansion, particularly on leading brands, while also looking at innovative and transformative sub-sectors within the domestic consumption field, such as new cultural tourism and new retail [1] Group 3: Policy Impact - The joint issuance of the "Opinions" by various government bodies encourages grassroots unions to conduct up to four spring and autumn travel activities annually, and to support the purchase of annual tickets for scenic spots and the distribution of cultural tourism consumption vouchers [2] - The "Opinions" aim to expand the scale of employee cultural and sports activities, enhance cultural supply, and optimize the structure of sports development, thereby promoting employee consumption [2] Group 4: Consumption Trends - Data from Qunar indicates that during the autumn holiday in November 2025, ticket bookings in Sichuan province increased by 3.4 times year-on-year, with several popular scenic spots seeing ticket sales rise by over 100% [3] - During the snow holiday, hotel bookings in the Altay region increased by 30% year-on-year, and the search volume for "Altay skiing" rose by 43% [3] Group 5: Future Opportunities - The increase in statutory holidays and various policy documents promoting vacation rights and optimizing student holiday arrangements are expected to significantly boost cultural and sports consumption, creating new development opportunities for sectors such as duty-free, hotels, tourism, and sports [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance in the coming months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the encouragement of travel and cultural consumption through policies aimed at enhancing employee leisure activities, which is expected to boost the travel and cultural sectors significantly [2][4]. - The introduction of additional public holidays and policies supporting paid leave is anticipated to stimulate cultural and tourism consumption, particularly during traditionally low seasons [4]. - Data from travel platforms indicates a substantial increase in ticket bookings during recent holiday periods, showcasing a growing consumer interest in travel and leisure activities [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Initiatives - The report discusses the issuance of guidelines by various government bodies to promote employee cultural and sports activities, allowing for up to four organized trips per year and the distribution of cultural consumption vouchers [1][2]. Market Trends - Significant growth in ticket bookings was observed during the autumn and snow holidays, with some regions reporting increases of over 300% in ticket reservations compared to previous years [3]. - The report notes that the policy-driven encouragement of travel is likely to transform traditionally slow tourism periods into more active seasons, benefiting sectors such as duty-free, hotels, and sports events [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with potential for growth, particularly in Hainan and during the upcoming Spring Festival, as well as sectors benefiting from new consumer trends and favorable policies [5][8]. - Specific companies are recommended for investment, including those in the duty-free, hotel, and new retail sectors, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [8].

Consumer Insights - During the New Year holiday, 142 million domestic trips were made, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.19% compared to 2024, with total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.35%[16] - Hainan's duty-free shopping saw a significant boost, with the number of shoppers increasing by 27.09% and total spending rising by 49.89% compared to the same period in 2024[18] - In major cities, Shanghai's daily average consumption during the holiday was 12.2 billion yuan, a 2.5% increase year-on-year, while Beijing's monitored sales reached 4.04 billion yuan, up 16.3%[17] High-end Manufacturing - The "Justice Mission-2025" military exercise highlights the strategic importance of the military-industrial sector amid geopolitical tensions, emphasizing its role in national sovereignty and external risk management[20][26] - The military exercise's focus on Taiwan reflects a more precise and targeted approach compared to previous drills, enhancing control over critical maritime routes and deterring external interference[22] Hard Technology - Major domestic wafer manufacturers are actively engaging in capital operations, with SMIC's registered capital increasing from $6.5 billion to $10.0773 billion, and a planned acquisition of 49% of SMIC North for 40.601 billion yuan[27][33] - Longxin Technology's IPO aims to raise 29.5 billion yuan, potentially becoming the second-largest fundraising in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's history, supporting its expansion in memory chip production[27][31] Health Sector - Domestic small nucleic acid drug companies, such as Rebio and Bowang Pharmaceutical, are demonstrating strong R&D capabilities, with multiple products entering clinical phases and significant business development collaborations underway[35][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the social services industry [4] Core Insights - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism data aligns with expectations, highlighting strong performance in duty-free shopping, inbound tourism, and leading mountain scenic spots. The upcoming long Spring Festival holiday and supportive tourism policies are expected to boost domestic consumption, leading to a favorable outlook for the social services industry in 2026 [3][7] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism Demand - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, with 142 million domestic trips taken during the New Year holiday, a 5.2% increase compared to 2024. Total domestic travel expenditure reached 84.79 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, with per capita spending increasing by 1.1% [7] Duty-Free Shopping - Duty-free sales in Hainan during the New Year holiday showed significant growth, with 442,000 items sold, a 52.4% increase year-on-year. The number of shoppers reached 83,500, up 60.6%, and total spending was 712 million yuan, a 128.9% increase. This growth is attributed to the official launch of duty-free operations, new policies, and promotional activities [7] Scenic Spots - Leading mountain scenic spots demonstrated strong visitor elasticity, with Huangshan receiving over 75,000 visitors (up 76.5% year-on-year), Emei Mountain hosting 126,200 visitors (up 20.9%), and Changbai Mountain seeing a 41% increase in visitors compared to 2025. The expansion of high-speed rail and airports contributed to this growth [7] Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) - Inbound tourism and winter sports are emerging as key growth drivers, with a 110% year-on-year increase in inbound ticket bookings and a more than 30-fold increase in experiential product bookings. Domestic winter sports continue to be a central theme for growth in 2026 [7]

作为海南免税市场最大份额的龙头运营商，中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司（以下简称：中国中免，股 票代码：601888.SH）2026年首个交易日却未承接到元旦假期免税消费的红利。 截至1月5日收盘，中国中免报90.29元/股，日跌4.52%，市值约1868亿元。不过，时间拉长 来看，自2025年12月18日以来，中国中免股价已上浮近20%。在12月31日盘中，该股一度冲 至95.66元/股，创下2023年11月以来的新高。 不过，作为"免税茅"，当下的中国中免与高峰时期仍相距甚远。 2020年6月，中共中央、国务院发布《海南自由贸易港建设总体方案》。当年，中国中免的股价也进入 疯狂的上行通道，仅2020年6月，股价就上涨超50%，并首次突破百元大关，随后股价更接连冲破200元 和300元，顶峰时刻的市值一度超过8000亿元。 封关后的第一个小长假，海南免税销售再度起飞，但中国中免还没缓过来。 2026年元旦假期，海南迎来离岛免税消费热潮。海口海关1月4日公布统计数据，2026年1月1日~3日， 海口海关共监管离岛免税商品销售44.2万件，同比增长52.4%；购物人数8.35万人次，同比增长60.6%； 购物金额7 ...

中国中免（601888）(01880)尾盘涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.42%，报78.45港元，成交额3.33亿港元。 消息面上，国元国际研报指出，2026年元旦假期作为海南自贸港全岛封关后的首个小长假，旅游市场迎 来"开门红"。全省接待游客217.16万人次，按可比口径同比增长25.2%；实现旅游总收入31.36亿元，同 比增长28.9%，收入增速高于人次增速3.7个百分点，显示消费结构持续优化。离岛免税、入境旅游等领 域表现突出，该行认为封关政策的红利与多元化产品供给将共同推动海南旅游市场进入高质量发展新阶 段。 瑞银发布研报称，据海口海关数据显示，海南1月1至3日免税销售同比增长129%至7.12亿元，免税购物 人次按年增加61%。该行估算人均免税消费额为8527元，按年上升42.5%；而购买商品数量亦按年增长 52.4%。所有数据均胜市场预期。瑞银认为，销售增长强劲主要由于海南在去年10月放宽了当地居民及 离境旅客于海南免税店的购物政策限制，推动购物人流增长。 ...

瑞银发表研究报告指，海口海关数据显示，海南1月1至3日免税销售同比增长129%至7.12亿元，免税购 物人次按年增加61%。该行估算人均免税消费额为8527元，按年上升42.5%；而购买商品数量亦按年增 长52.4%。所有数据均胜市场预期。该行认为销售增长强劲，主要因海南在去年10月放宽了当地居民及 离境旅客于海南免税店的购物政策限制，推动购物人流增长。同时，人均消费额显著提升，主要由精品 类别如服装、鞋履、手袋、珠宝等及手机产品所带动。另外，地方政府亦持续提供免税购物补贴。 该行较看好中国中免A股及H股，分别予目标价99.59元及90.73港元，评级"买入"。该行亦看好上海机 场，因其新合约可能推动公司重回高增长轨道，加上没有重大资本开支，净资产收益率有望持续改善。 ...