2025 年 06 月 17 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：76 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 76 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：稀土、机器人、减肥药 1、稀土主题：稀土是镧系元素和钪、钇共十七种金属元 素的总称。稀土永磁材料是现在已知的综合性能最高的一种 永磁材料。稀土在工业和新材料领域举足轻重的地位，各国 将它作为一种战略储备资源；中国稀土产业世界第一。相关 标的：中国稀土（000831）、金力永磁（300748） 2、机器人主题：据"中科院之声"消息，中国科学院沈 阳自动化研究所日前研发了一套"刚柔耦合"的下肢多关节 康复外骨骼机器人，有望为下肢偏瘫患者提供运动功能重建 与行为辅助服务。结果显示，该研究方法有效实现了运动学 重塑、步态模式自然性与 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant rally, with the S&P 500 surpassing 6086 points, the Dow Jones reaching 45000 points, and NASDAQ nearing 19735 points, all marking historical highs [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks about the economy performing better than expected ignited bullish sentiment in the market, demonstrating the influence of monetary policy expectations on market emotions [1] Group 2: Technology Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly AI applications and semiconductor stocks, led the market rally, with Salesforce's stock soaring by 10.99% and Marvell's stock increasing by 23.19% [2] - NVIDIA's stock rose by 3.48%, reflecting a significant market capitalization increase, indicating the strong investment logic surrounding semiconductor companies [2] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Developments - The nomination of a cryptocurrency supporter, Atkins, to lead the SEC led to a surge in Bitcoin prices, breaking through $99,000, highlighting the intertwining of cryptocurrency and political dynamics [2] - This political shift coincided with a spike in trading volumes on platforms like OKEx, suggesting a growing interest in digital currencies as traditional financial boundaries blur [2] Group 4: Chinese Stocks Divergence - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.38%, contrasting with the overall bullish trend in U.S. stocks, indicating a divergence in the performance of Chinese stocks [4] - The mixed performance of major Chinese e-commerce companies, such as Alibaba and JD, alongside Pinduoduo's slight increase and Kingsoft Cloud's 8.51% surge, suggests a significant internal revaluation of Chinese stocks [4] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Competition - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are engaged in a competitive battle in the obesity drug market, with Eli Lilly's Zepbound showing 47% more weight loss in clinical trials compared to Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, leading to a 2.03% increase in Eli Lilly's stock [6] - This competition highlights the intensifying battle for market share in the multi-billion dollar obesity drug sector [6] Group 6: Black Swan Event - The assassination of UnitedHealthcare's CEO Thompson serves as a stark reminder of unforeseen risks in the market, despite the prevailing bullish sentiment [6] - The sudden loss of leadership in a $560 billion company may have ripple effects on investor activities in the coming days [6]

--鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：39 分（较冷） 最近一年大盘走势 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 2025 年 06 月 16 日 双融日报 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 39 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：稀土、机器人、减肥药 1、稀土主题：稀土是镧系元素和钪、钇共十七种金属元 素的总称。稀土永磁材料是现在已知的综合性能最高的一种 永磁材料。稀土在工业和新材料领域举足轻重的地位，各国 将它作为一种战略储备资源；中国稀土产业世界第一。相关 标的：中国稀土（000831）、金力永磁（300748） 2、机器人主题：据"中科院之声"消息，中国科学院沈 阳自动化研究所日前研发了一套"刚柔耦合"的下肢多关节 康复外骨骼机器人，有望为下肢偏瘫患者提供运动功能重建 与行为辅助服务。结果显示，该研究方法有效实现了运动学 重塑、步态模式自然性与 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains an overweight rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, indicating a potential recovery and growth in the sector [3][7] - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology index increased by 6.61% from January to May 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 9.02 percentage points [9][17] - The industry valuation is currently at a relatively low level, with a PE ratio of approximately 50.45 times as of June 12, 2025, which is higher than the beginning of the year but still within the lower range historically [9][24] Group 2 - The report highlights that the 11th batch of national drug procurement is expected to commence in June 2025, with a focus on systemic anti-infection drugs [33][34] - The report emphasizes the ongoing optimization of policies supporting innovative drug development, which is expected to enhance the industry's growth [38][39] - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a significant increase in the proportion of First-in-Class new drug development, indicating improved quality and competitiveness [42][43] Group 3 - The global obesity population is projected to exceed 4 billion by 2035, driving demand for weight loss medications [54][55] - The market for GLP-1 drugs is rapidly expanding, with forecasts suggesting a market size exceeding $140 billion by 2030 [56][59] - GLP-1 drugs are continuously expanding their indications, showing efficacy in various chronic diseases beyond diabetes and weight loss [60][61] Group 4 - The report identifies key companies in the innovative drug sector, such as Heng Rui Medicine, which has shown significant revenue growth and a strong pipeline of innovative drugs [47][48] - The report notes that Heng Rui Medicine's revenue increased from 11.094 billion yuan in 2016 to 27.985 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 12.26% [48][49] - The company maintains a high level of R&D investment, with R&D expenses rising from 3.896 billion yuan in 2019 to 6.583 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a commitment to innovation [50][51]

2025 年 06 月 13 日 双融日报 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 67 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：稀土、机器人、减肥药 1、稀土主题：稀土是镧系元素和钪、钇共十七种金属元 素的总称。稀土永磁材料是现在已知的综合性能最高的一种 永磁材料。稀土在工业和新材料领域举足轻重的地位，各国 将它作为一种战略储备资源；中国稀土产业世界第一。相关 标的：中国稀土（000831）、金力永磁（300748） 2、机器人主题：据"中科院之声"消息，中国科学院沈 阳自动化研究所日前研发了一套"刚柔耦合"的下肢多关节 康复外骨骼机器人，有望为下肢偏瘫患者提供运动功能重建 与行为辅助服务。结果显示，该研究方法有效实现了运动学 重塑、步态模式自然性与对称性等关键康复目标。相关标 的：振江股份(603507)、光大同创(301387) 3、减肥药主题：近日,据美国糖尿病协会(ADA)官网显 示,其第 85 届科学年会将于 6 月 20-23 日在美国芝加哥 McCormick 会展中心举行,该会议被誉为"全 ...

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical stocks have collectively surged, particularly in the innovative drug sector, boosting market confidence and leading to the ChiNext Index surpassing the 3400-point mark [1] - Various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, such as innovative drugs, CRO, and weight-loss drugs, have shown strong performance, indicating a robust recovery after years of adjustment due to centralized procurement [1] - China's innovative drug sector has made significant progress, with 73 studies selected for oral presentations at the 2025 ASCO, including 11 major research abstracts [1] - The total value of outbound licensing transactions for Chinese innovative drugs reached $51.9 billion in 2024, marking a 26% year-on-year increase, with Q1 2025 alone accounting for $36.93 billion [1] - The low R&D costs in China, combined with a skilled workforce, have positioned many pharmaceutical companies to conduct R&D outsourcing for global pharmaceutical giants, particularly in the Hong Kong market [1] - After years of decline, pharmaceutical stocks are gaining momentum, with many still trading at low valuations, especially those with innovative capabilities [1] Group 2: Technology and Consumer Sectors - The biotechnology sector is fundamentally part of the technology sector, which is currently characterized by a tech bull market expected to continue throughout the year [2] - The new consumption sector remains strong, but there are concerns about potential valuation bubbles due to significant price increases [2] - Traditional consumption has been underperforming, influenced by declining growth in household income, leading to a prolonged drop in stock prices and valuations [2] - Investors are increasingly focusing on emerging industries that represent economic development directions, indicating a shift in investment strategies [2] Group 3: Economic Policies and Market Dynamics - Recent government policies aim to improve living standards by raising the minimum wage, which is expected to enhance overall wage levels and stimulate consumption [3] - A vibrant stock market is seen as a crucial mechanism for boosting consumer spending, which is a primary driver of economic recovery [3] - With household savings reaching 160 trillion yuan, there is a growing need for new investment opportunities, as traditional real estate investments are becoming less attractive [3] - The stability of the stock market is essential for preserving and increasing investor wealth, attracting long-term capital, and providing companies with better financing channels for R&D and production expansion [3]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 75, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, which suggests increasing investor confidence and a potential upward trend in the market [6][10][22]. Hot Topics Tracking - **Rare Earth Theme**: Rare earth elements are crucial in various industrial and new material applications, with China being the world's leading producer. Key stocks include China Rare Earth (000831) and Jinli Permanent Magnet (300748) [7]. - **Robotics Theme**: A new rehabilitation exoskeleton robot developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences shows promise for lower limb rehabilitation, with related stocks being Zhenjiang Co., Ltd. (603507) and Everbright Tongchuang (301387) [7]. - **Weight Loss Drugs Theme**: The upcoming American Diabetes Association conference will focus on GLP-1 drugs and their new weight loss strategies, with related stocks including Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317) and Hanyu Pharmaceutical (300199) [7]. Main Capital Inflows and Outflows - The top net inflow stocks include C Ying Stone (688775) with a net inflow of 108.71 million, followed by Dongfang Caifu (300059) with 86.28 million [11]. - The top net outflow stocks include Lianhua Technology (002250) with a net outflow of -88.73 million, followed by Zhongke Shuguang (603019) with -72.89 million [13]. Industry Overview - The report highlights significant net inflows in the non-bank financial sector, automotive, and electronics industries, while the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors experienced notable net outflows [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, highlighting mixed performance across various indices and sectors, with a focus on the strength of certain stocks and sectors while others are experiencing declines [1][4]. Market Performance - As of June 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11% to 3403.52, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.23% to 10226.55, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.36% to 2053.94 [2][1]. - Overall, the market saw more declines than gains, with nearly 3400 stocks experiencing a drop [2]. Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly CRO (Contract Research Organization) stocks, showed strong performance, along with new consumption, solid-state batteries, and cross-border e-commerce concepts [4]. - Conversely, sectors such as computing, aerospace, AI applications, semiconductors, and new energy vehicles faced declines [4]. Capital Flow - Major inflows were observed in banking, pharmaceutical biology, electric equipment, public utilities, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and light industry manufacturing sectors [5]. - Specific stocks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Leshan Electric Power, and Bank of China saw net inflows of 742 million, 658 million, and 484 million respectively [6]. - On the other hand, stocks such as Huibo Yuntong, Inspur Information, and Tuo Wei Information faced significant net outflows of 323 million, 318 million, and 309 million respectively [7]. Asia-Pacific Market Overview - Major Asia-Pacific indices showed positive performance, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 1.01% to 38473.97, and the Korean Composite Index increasing by 0.75% to 2877.23 [9][10]. - The Australian S&P 200 Index also saw a rise of 0.79% to 8582.7 [10]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - Market volume remains insufficient, with a current level around 1.2 trillion, leading to a cautious outlook without significant policy breakthroughs [11]. - The strategy of focusing on individual stocks rather than indices is suggested, especially in sectors like smart manufacturing, military industry, and pharmaceuticals, which have shown recent performance but may not fully reflect long-term expectations [12].

消息面，据商务部网站，商务部新闻发言人近日就中重稀土出口管制措施答记者问表示，对稀土实施出口管制符合国际通行做法，中方已依法批准一定数量 的合规申请。 中泰证券指出，稀土价格处于周期底部位置，进口矿纳入管控，供给格局进一步集中，价格中枢有望上移，2025年人形机器人开始进入量产阶段，若按照远 期1亿台人形机器人销量，远期空间约20万至40万吨，相当于再造一个稀土永磁市场，板块中长期趋势明确。 6月9日，三大指数集体上涨，截至收盘，沪指涨0.43%，深成指涨0.65%，创业板涨1.07%，科创50指数涨0.6%，两市超3900只个股上涨，沪深两市今日成交 额约1.29万亿元。 医疗板块涨幅居前，包括创新药、CRO、减肥药等集体飙涨，宛如牛市，其中，舒泰神（300204.SZ）、常山药业（300255.SZ）、海辰药业 （300584.SZ）、睿智医药（300149.SZ）录得20%涨幅，激活了市场人气，诺泰生物（688076.SH）涨9.99%，药明康德（603259.SH）亦上涨。 中国银河证券研报表示，医药板块经历较长时间调整，整体估值处于较低水平，且公募持仓低配，2025年在支持引导商保发展的政策背景下， ...

今天，A股三大指数午后集体回调。全市场成交额11826亿元，较上日增加429亿元。医药板块逆势走 强，CRO、减肥药、化学制药等方向领涨。 14:00左右， 多只沪深300ETF量能显著放大 。截至收盘，华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF成交额近34亿元，易方 达沪深300ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF成交额显著放量。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.94%，深证成指跌0.85%，创业板指跌1.18%。板块方面，可控核聚变、贵金属、创 新药、维生素等板块涨幅居前，港口、游戏、算力、电力等板块跌幅居前。 赛力斯全天成交额超100亿元 赛力斯涨停，全天成交额超100亿元。 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 渤海证券称，长期来看，美国居高不下的债务和赤字率、潜在的再通胀风险、全球复杂的地缘局势以及 多国央行购金等因素均对金价形成支撑。当前宏观情绪缓和背景下需关注短期波动，而长期基本面利好 因素仍存，黄金具备战略配置价值。 知名黄金分析师Jordan Roy-Byrne认为，黄金价格在年底有可能达到3700美元/盎司。金价将在未来12个 月内达到4400美元至4500美元/盎司。此外，白银价格也将突破100美元/盎司。 （ ...