Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the marginal recovery of the US economy, highlighting improvements in GDP growth, employment stability, inflation pressures, and market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. Group 1: US Economic Recovery - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a Q3 GDP growth rate of 2.5%, with private consumption growth at 2.0% and private investment growth at 2.5%, indicating a recovery from Q2's low [2]. - Initial jobless claims remain low at 226,000, while continuing claims are at 1.974 million, suggesting a stable employment market with limited upward pressure on the unemployment rate [2]. - Service consumption growth is forecasted at 1.9% for Q3, up from 1.4% in Q2, potentially reversing the trend of cooling service inflation [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Market sentiment is influenced by Trump's nomination of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September and 2-3 cuts anticipated for the year [2][3]. - The bond market reflects these expectations, with US Treasury yields remaining low and limited further downside anticipated due to already priced-in rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The US dollar is expected to remain stable, with limited downside as the market has largely priced in the September rate cut [5]. - Gold prices are influenced by potential tariffs on gold bars, leading to a significant price spread between New York and London gold [6]. Group 4: China's Economic Performance - China's exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year in July, with imports rising by 4.1%, indicating better-than-expected trade performance [8]. - Domestic real estate transactions are down 25.1% year-on-year, with second-hand home prices declining, reflecting ongoing pressure in the housing market [9]. Group 5: Policy Initiatives - The People's Bank of China and other departments issued guidelines to support new industrialization through financial services, focusing on innovation and supply chain resilience [10][11]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to direct financial resources towards technological innovation and brand upgrades, while monitoring credit flows to prevent risks [11]. Group 6: Market Strategy - The market shows a steady recovery in risk appetite, with both stock and bond markets experiencing slight upward movements [12]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended for equities, focusing on dividend-paying sectors and technology, while maintaining a cautious approach to long-duration bonds [14].

Export and Import Growth - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2% (previous value 5.9%), while import growth was 4.1% (previous value 1.1%) [5] - Month-on-month, July exports decreased by 1.1% compared to June, slightly below seasonal levels but higher than the same period in 2024 [5] - The trade surplus decreased in July 2025 [5] Country-Specific Trends - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases, with growth rates of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, likely due to preemptive shipments before August tariffs [11] - Exports to the United States decreased by 21.7%, while exports to the EU and other regions increased by 9.2% and 19.3% respectively [11] Product-Specific Insights - In the machinery and electronics sector, equipment exports remained strong, while consumer electronics showed a decline due to previous over-shipments [18] - Labor-intensive imports decreased, while grain imports saw a notable increase [23] Future Outlook and Risks - Export growth is expected to moderate, with key risks including the implementation of Section 232 tariffs and increased scrutiny on transshipments [29] - The resilience of capital goods exports is noteworthy, as geopolitical tensions may lead to increased demand for Chinese equipment [29]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange National New Sci-Tech Board State-Owned Enterprises Index (950253) opened lower and fluctuated, down 0.7% to 1080.78 points, with a trading volume of 26.665 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 8.98%, by 9.11% over the past three months, and by 11.89% year-to-date [1] - The index is composed of state-owned enterprises listed on the Sci-Tech Board or companies with state capital participation without actual control, reflecting the overall performance of state-owned enterprises in the Sci-Tech Board [1] Group 2 - The index samples are adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made under special circumstances [2] - Companies that are delisted or undergo mergers, acquisitions, or splits are processed according to calculation and maintenance guidelines [2]

中信证券认为，7月出口增速继续超预期，对东盟、非洲出口保持快速增长，有效对冲了美国方面需求 的下滑。从出口商品结构上来看，根据我们测算，7月半导体产业链、汽车产业链、原材料工业对出口 的拉动作用较大，劳动密集型产品对总体出口贡献由正转负。进口方面，7月进口增速回升，结构上自 美国进口降幅扩大，多数大宗品进口数量增速较前值增加。展望下半年，虽然对美直接出口和转口贸易 都将受到关税扰动，但产能转移加速、科技产品创新和贸易多元化布局料将对冲部分出口增速下行压 力，下半年出口增速有望录得2.5%左右的正增长。 ...

Export Performance - In July, China's export year-on-year growth rate recorded 7.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, but the month-on-month growth rate is below the median of the past five years[3] - The rebound in export growth is primarily due to a lower base from the same period last year, while the month-on-month growth rate remains below the five-year median[6] - Exports to the US have decreased, but support from European recovery and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa has bolstered exports[7] Import Performance - China's import year-on-year growth rate in July exceeded expectations at 4.1%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month, with month-on-month growth significantly above the five-year average[3] - The increase in imports is driven by continuous domestic production expansion and a notable drop in commodity prices from June, stimulating higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials[6] - Specific imports such as copper saw significant increases, with copper ore rising by 33.1% and unwrought copper by 11.3%[16] Economic Outlook - Despite a downward trend in export centrality, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable, supported by European fiscal expansion and potential unexpected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[4] - Risks include potential underperformance in domestic economic recovery, unexpected declines in demand from developed countries, and uncertainties in import-export policies[23]

金融界8月6日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证沪港深科技100指数 (SHS科技100，931442)上涨0.24%， 报11262.4点，成交额961.86亿元。 从中证沪港深科技100指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比63.13%、深圳证券交易所占比 19.44%、上海证券交易所占比17.42%。 从中证沪港深科技100指数持仓样本的行业来看，可选消费占比29.50%、信息技术占比25.83%、通信服 务占比19.29%、医药卫生占比16.01%、工业占比8.87%、原材料占比0.51%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。每次调整的样本比例一般不超过40%。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本 定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临 时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照 计算与维护细则处理。当港股通范围发生变动导致样本不再满足互联互通资格时，指数将相应调整。 跟踪SHS科技100的公募基金包括：华安中证沪港深科技10 ...

周周芝道 - 反内卷和美国非农，如何理解？20250803 摘要 上证指数失守 3,600 点，前期牛市预期面临不确定性，反内卷概念板块 领跌，黑色系大宗商品降温，市场情绪有所回落，投资者需关注市场风 险。 美国非农数据疲软引发经济衰退和降息预期分歧，美股表现脆弱。市场 对美国经济韧性与衰退的判断分歧影响美联储货币政策和美元流动性， 进而影响美股走势。 中国反内卷政策旨在结束通缩预期，但政治局会议后市场预期落空，7 月制造业 PMI 数据走弱，加剧了市场对经济走势的不确定性，政策效果 面临挑战。 4-6 月中国外需强劲，但 7 月新出口订单和高频出口数据走弱，全球经 济变化开始影响中国出口。投资者需关注出口数据变化，评估对经济的 影响。 7 月美国非农就业数据下修，劳动力市场疲软，失业率上升。美联储或 调整货币政策，下半年降息预期增加，影响全球美元流动性及国内资本 市场。 Q&A 上周全球资本市场的表现如何？有哪些主要趋势？ 上周全球资本市场呈现出风偏回落的特点。主要股票市场，包括中国的 A 股、 港股和美国的美股，都出现了不同程度的下跌。具体来看，中国沪深 300 指数 首次跌破 1%，上证指数失守 3,6 ...

Market Performance - Global markets experienced a general decline, with MSCI Global down by 2.2%, MSCI Developed down by 2.3%, and MSCI Emerging down by 1.6% [8][15][17] - Among developed markets, the Australian S&P 200 showed the best performance with a decline of only 0.1%, while the French CAC40 was the weakest, down by 3.7% [8][15] - In the emerging markets, the Taiwan Weighted Index was the best performer, up by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng Index was the worst, down by 3.5% [8][15] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased across major indices, with the Hang Seng Index reaching 198 billion shares and a turnover of 736.1 billion USD, while the S&P 500 had a turnover of 58.6 billion USD [24] - Investor sentiment in the Hong Kong market improved, with short-selling accounting for 13.5% of total turnover, while North American sentiment showed a decline [24][29] - Volatility increased in the US markets, while it decreased in the Hong Kong market [24][30] Fund Flows - Global macro liquidity expectations turned more accommodative, with the market anticipating 2.4 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [53][56] - Significant capital inflows were observed in the Hong Kong market, with a total of 18.3 billion HKD flowing in during the last week [61][65] - The net inflow of funds into the Hong Kong market was primarily driven by stable foreign capital, amounting to 13.8 billion HKD [61] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations for the Hang Seng Index were revised down from 2195 to 2191 for 2025, with the financial sector seeing the largest upward revision [66][68] - The S&P 500's earnings expectations were adjusted upward from 265 to 267, with the technology sector experiencing the most significant increase [66][68] - The Eurozone STOXX50 index saw a slight downward revision in earnings expectations from 336 to 335 for 2025 [66][68]

据了解，上证380行业指数系列将上证380指数全部样本按照行业分类标准划分为能源、原材料、工业等 一级行业，并选择各个行业对应的证券作为相应的行业指数样本，以反映上证380行业指数在二级市场 的整体表现。该指数以2003年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，上证380原材料指数十大权重分别为：赤峰黄金（6.04%）、云天化（4.91%）、盛和 资源（4.57%）、西部矿业（4.51%）、浙江龙盛（4.37%）、南山铝业（4.35%）、西部超导 （3.89%）、东阳光（3.44%）、厦门钨业（3.44%）、圣泉集团（3.42%）。 金融界8月4日消息，上证指数低开高走，上证380原材料指数 (380材料，000105)上涨0.85%，报4336.38 点，成交额189.13亿元。 数据统计显示，上证380原材料指数近一个月上涨7.58%，近三个月上涨13.21%，年至今上涨15.72%。 从上证380原材料指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比100.00%。 从上证380原材料指数持仓样本的行业来看，原材料占比100.00%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in July decreased by 0.4 points to 49.3, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the overall economic sentiment showed slight improvement with an increase in the number of expanding industries from 6 to 7, suggesting that economic conditions are influenced by both quantity and price factors [1][5][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In July, industries showing improvement were primarily in two categories: midstream equipment manufacturing and certain raw material sectors, including general and specialized equipment, electrical machinery, and metal products, likely linked to the release of the 2025 "Two Heavy" construction projects and central budget investments [7][10]. - The producer price index for black metals, non-ferrous metals, and non-metallic minerals increased by 80.1, 13.4, and 12.7 points respectively in July, reflecting a positive price trend in these sectors [7][8]. - The number of industries in the expansion zone increased to 7, with notable improvements in specialized equipment (up 1.6 points), general equipment (up 14.8 points), and electrical machinery (up 1.9 points) [7][10]. Group 2: Declining Industries - The industries experiencing significant downturns included durable consumer goods related to "trade-in" programs, export-dependent sectors, and the petrochemical industry, with automotive and computer communication electronics seeing declines of 7.0 and 3.7 points respectively [10][11]. - Export orders for automotive, textiles, and chemical industries showed notable declines, with the automotive sector's export orders dropping by 10.6 points [11][10]. - The petrochemical sector's sentiment decreased by 9.8 points in July, correlating with a drop in international crude oil prices after a peak in mid-June [10][11]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The new materials industry has maintained a leading sentiment for three consecutive months, with a 0.4 point increase in July, remaining above the 50 mark, indicating robust growth driven by connections to upstream sectors like new energy and robotics [17][18]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and energy-saving industries showed resilience, remaining above seasonal averages, while the biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors experienced declines [17][18]. - The sentiment in the new materials sector is supported by rapid internal growth and large-scale equipment updates, while the new energy vehicle sector faces production constraints due to industry "anti-involution" policies [17][18]. Group 4: Construction and Service Industries - In July, the construction sector saw a decline in outdoor construction activities due to adverse weather conditions, with residential construction sentiment dropping by 4.7 points, which is greater than the seasonal average decline [18][20]. - The service sector's operating conditions slightly decreased by 0.1 points in July, with high sentiment in travel-related industries such as aviation and dining, which saw significant increases [23][24]. - The overall service sector sentiment remains relatively high, with cultural and sports entertainment sectors exceeding 60 points, indicating a vibrant market [23][24].