2025 年 6 月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降 3.6% ，环比下降 0.4% ；工业生 产者购进价格同比下降 4.3% ，环比下降 0.7% 。上半年，工业生产者出厂价格比上年同期 下降 2.8% ，工业生产者购进价格下降 2.9% 。 一、工业生产者价格同比变动情况 6 月份，工业生产者出厂价格中，生产资料价格下降 4.4% ，影响工业生产者出厂价格 总水平下降约 3.26 个百分点。其中，采掘工业价格下降 13.2% ，原材料工业价格下降 5.5% ，加工工业价格下降 3.2% 。生活资料价格下降 1.4% ，影响工业生产者出厂价格总 水平下降约 0.35 个百分点。其中，食品价格下降 2.0% ，衣着价格上涨 0.1% ，一般日用 品价格上涨 0.8% ，耐用消费品价格下降 2.7% 。 工业生产者购进价格中，燃料动力类价格下降 10.4% ，黑色金属材料类价格下降 8.0% ，化工原料类价格下降 6.2% ，农副产品类价格下降 4.2% ，建筑材料及非金属类价格下降 2.6% ，纺织原料类价格下降 2.4% ；有色金属材料及电线类价格上涨 2.4% 。 二、工业生产者价格环比变动情况 6 月 ...

Group 1: Service Trade Growth - In the first five months of 2025, China's service trade grew steadily, with a total import and export value of 32,543.6 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year [4] - Service exports reached 14,033.7 billion yuan, growing by 15.1%, while imports were 18,509.9 billion yuan, increasing by 2.7% [4] - The service trade deficit was 4,476.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,352.2 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [4] Group 2: Knowledge-Intensive Services - Knowledge-intensive service trade maintained growth, with imports and exports totaling 12,492.7 billion yuan, up by 5.0% [4] - Major contributors included other business services and telecommunications, computer, and information services, with respective trade values of 5,384.1 billion yuan and 4,400.6 billion yuan, growing at 3.2% and 10.7% [4] - Knowledge-intensive service exports were 7,196.5 billion yuan, increasing by 6.6%, while imports were 5,296.2 billion yuan, up by 2.9%, resulting in a surplus of 1,900.3 billion yuan, an increase of 293 billion yuan year-on-year [4] Group 3: Travel Services - Travel services experienced the fastest growth, with total imports and exports reaching 9,200.5 billion yuan, a growth of 12.2%, making it the largest sector in service trade [5] - Travel service exports surged by 74.2%, while imports grew by 5.3% [5]

Group 1: CPI Marginal Improvement - In June, the CPI showed a marginal improvement with a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, reversing a three-month trend of -0.1%, primarily driven by rising domestic fuel prices and a rebound in durable goods prices [2] - Food prices performed better than seasonal averages, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 0.7% month-on-month, compared to a historical average decline of -3.9% [2] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in June, recovering from a previous decline of -1.7%, influenced by rising international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [2][3] Group 2: PPI Continued Pressure - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in June, marking the seventh consecutive month of negative growth, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, the largest drop since August 2023 [4] - The decline in production material prices was a significant factor, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, compared to a historical average of -0.1% [4] - Life goods prices remained sluggish, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, reflecting weak seasonal performance [4] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - CPI is expected to show a mild recovery, with an annual increase projected around 0%, higher than the first half's average of -0.1% [5] - Core CPI is anticipated to rise by approximately 0.6% for the year, supported by policies aimed at improving supply-demand structures [6] - PPI is expected to remain under pressure, with an annual decline projected at around -2.3%, an improvement from the first half's -2.8% [6] Group 4: International and Domestic Commodity Trends - Internationally, commodity prices are expected to show increased divergence and reduced volatility, with oil prices likely to continue declining due to OPEC+ production increases and weakening global demand [7] - Domestically, weak internal demand persists, particularly in real estate and infrastructure investments, which are not expected to drive resource prices upward [7] - The manufacturing sector is facing challenges with low capacity utilization, indicating a phase of oversupply in certain industries [7]

Group 1 - A-shares have shown a structural market characteristic, with strong performance in consumer sectors such as food and beverage, and retail, as well as certain technology sectors like AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][4] - The top five performing industries in A-shares include agriculture, media, food and beverage, electrical equipment, and retail, indicating a growing interest in agricultural assets and a recovery in consumer spending [2] - The bottom five performing industries in A-shares are electronics, steel, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and storage chips, with the decline in non-ferrous metals linked to proposed US tariffs on copper [2] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare sector has seen a rise due to active innovative drug concepts, despite potential US tariffs on pharmaceuticals [3] - The top three performing industries in Hong Kong include healthcare, industrial, and energy, while the bottom three are materials, information technology, and real estate, reflecting external pressures from US tariff policies and global tech supply-demand imbalances [3] - The current market characteristics indicate that A-shares are driven by policy and sectoral improvements, while Hong Kong stocks are more influenced by external factors such as US tariffs and global technology cycles [4] Group 3 - Short-term market hotspots are concentrated around policy-driven sectors and improving industry conditions, with a focus on performance in the upcoming earnings reports [4] - The breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points is expected to further boost market confidence, with potential policy signals from the July Politburo meeting influencing capital flows [4]

Core Points - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the "2025 Action Plan for Safeguarding Cybersecurity in New Industrialization" to enhance cybersecurity capabilities in the industrial sector [1][2] - The action plan focuses on upgrading protection capabilities for key enterprises, important systems, and critical products, outlining three main work objectives and eight key tasks [1] Summary by Categories Key Tasks - Establish a list of key enterprises for cybersecurity protection in the industrial sector, implementing cybersecurity standards for no less than 800 industrial enterprises and updating classification records for at least 100 vehicle networking service platforms [1] - Deepen cybersecurity assessments for industrial control systems and explore safety testing and certification for industrial control products [1] - Organize nationwide promotion of cybersecurity policies and standards, ensuring coverage of at least 20% of large-scale industrial enterprises in local areas [1] Work Objectives - The 2025 list of key enterprises will focus on industries such as raw materials, equipment, consumer goods, and electronic information manufacturing, aligning with high-quality development actions in key manufacturing industry chains [1] - Local authorities are required to prioritize new industrial cybersecurity in their planning and integrate it into the digital transformation of manufacturing [2] - Increased support through government procurement services and enterprise rewards and subsidies is emphasized to facilitate the implementation of the action plan [2]

金十数据7月9日讯，6月份，工业生产者出厂价格中，生产资料价格下降4.4%，影响工业生产者出厂价 格总水平下降约3.26个百分点。其中，采掘工业价格下降13.2%，原材料工业价格下降5.5%，加工工业 价格下降3.2%。生活资料价格下降1.4%，影响工业生产者出厂价格总水平下降约0.35个百分点。其中， 食品价格下降2.0%，衣着价格上涨0.1%，一般日用品价格上涨0.8%，耐用消费品价格下降2.7%。 国家统计局：6月份采掘工业价格同比下降13.2% ...

Core Insights - In June 2025, the national industrial producer's ex-factory prices decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while the purchase prices decreased by 4.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month [1][10]. Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes - In June, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers saw a decline in production materials by 4.4%, contributing approximately 3.26 percentage points to the overall decrease. The mining industry prices fell by 13.2%, raw materials by 5.5%, and processing industry prices by 3.2% [4]. - The prices of living materials decreased by 1.4%, impacting the overall ex-factory price by about 0.35 percentage points. Food prices dropped by 2.0%, while clothing prices increased by 0.1% and durable goods prices decreased by 2.7% [4]. - The purchase prices of industrial producers showed a significant decline in fuel and power categories by 10.4%, black metal materials by 8.0%, and chemical raw materials by 6.2% [7]. Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes - In June, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 0.6% for production materials, contributing approximately 0.42 percentage points to the overall decline. The mining industry prices fell by 1.2%, raw materials by 0.7%, and processing industry prices by 0.5% [8]. - Living materials prices saw a slight decrease of 0.1%, with food prices down by 0.3% and durable goods prices down by 0.1% [8]. - The purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 0.7%, with notable declines in fuel and power categories by 2.0% and black metal materials by 1.1% [9]. Group 3: Key Industry Price Changes - The coal mining and washing industry experienced a significant year-on-year price drop of 21.8%, while the oil and natural gas extraction industry saw a decrease of 12.6% [9]. - The non-metallic mining industry prices fell by 1.3%, and the agricultural and food processing industry prices decreased by 3.7% [9]. - In contrast, the prices in the non-ferrous metal mining industry increased by 12.0% year-on-year [9].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 6月工业原材料价格小幅回升，能源价格受地缘政治扰动先扬后抑，有色分项价格收涨。截至6月30 日，生意社BPI指数录得857点，相较5月末回升0.1%。其中能源、有色价格（月环比）分别为-0.1%、 1.9% 。 第二， 6月内需定价商品中焦煤、螺纹期货价收涨，月环比涨幅分别为23.4%、2.5%。南华工业品指数环比 正增长，同比降幅较5月进一步收窄 。 第三， 一线城市二手房价格指数涨跌互现，上海二手房价格回稳。截至6月第四周（6月23日），四大一线城 市二手房挂牌价指数相较5月最后一周（5月26日）环比分别录得-0.7%、0.8%、-0.8%、-0.04% 。 第四， 新兴产业链价格涨跌互现，光伏行业综合指数环比继续下行，碳酸锂、半导体相关产品偏强。6月光 伏行业综合指数（SPI）环比回落4.6%（前值-6.9%），其中电池片拖累较大；碳酸锂期货结算价环比回升 5.3%。表征半导体（内存）景气度的DXI指数延续强势，DXI指数（代表DRAM即内存产值变化景气度）环比 上涨29.4% 。 第五， 临沂商 ...

为扎实推进2025年护航新型工业化网络安全专项行动，工业和信息化部印发《2025年护航新型工业化网 络安全专项行动方案》。《行动方案》聚焦突出重点管理、做优服务模式，以推动重点企业、重要系 统、关键产品防护能力升级为核心，提出3方面、8项重点任务，推动提高工业领域网络安全保障水平， 着力支撑制造业高质量发展，为实现"十五五"良好开局奠定坚实基础。 2025年护航新型工业化网络安全专项行动方案 为深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于新型工业化的重要论述，全面贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神和全国 新型工业化推进大会部署，扎实推进2025年护航新型工业化网络安全专项行动（以下简称专项行动）， 进一步推动提升新型工业化网络安全保障能力，制定本方案。 一、总体要求 以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻党的二十大和二十届二中、三中全会精神，锚 定实现新型工业化这个关键任务，着眼实体经济和数字经济深度融合趋势，更好统筹发展和安全，坚持 问题导向、目标导向、结果导向，突出重点管理、做优服务模式，以推动重点企业、重要系统、关键产 品防护能力升级为核心，切实提高工业领域网络安全保障水平，着力支撑制造业高质量发展，为实 现"十 ...

Group 1: Industrial Growth in Hunan - Hunan's industrial added value increased by 8.1% year-on-year from January to May, 1.2 percentage points faster than the same period last year [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector showed strong support, with an added value growth of 12.9%, contributing 4.1 percentage points to industrial growth [1] - Specific sectors such as metal products grew by 23.6%, electronic information manufacturing by 16.2%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 14.4% [1] - The raw materials sector maintained stable growth, with an added value increase of 8.4%, including a 14.2% growth in the non-ferrous sector and a 10.3% increase in non-metallic mineral products [1] - High-tech manufacturing also experienced rapid growth, with an added value increase of 13.9%, particularly in electronic and communication equipment manufacturing, which grew by 17.4% [1] - Production of high-tech products surged, with sensor output increasing by 28.1%, optoelectronic devices by 40.2%, and industrial control computers and systems by 77.7% [1] Group 2: Service Sector and Investment Trends - From January to April, the revenue of large-scale service enterprises in Hunan grew by 4.4%, with 29 out of 34 industries reporting revenue growth, expanding the growth coverage to 85.3% [2] - The technology service sector showed high growth rates, with research and experimental development revenue increasing by 14.6%, technology promotion and application services by 12.4%, and professional technical services by 12.1% [2] - Profitability in the service sector improved significantly, with total profits of large-scale service enterprises increasing by 21.1%, 27.1 percentage points higher than the previous year [2] - Fixed asset investment in Hunan grew by 3.8% year-on-year from January to May, 0.6 percentage points faster than the previous four months [2] - Industrial investment saw a notable increase of 14.2%, 1.9 percentage points faster than the previous four months, while high-tech industry investment grew by 9.5% [2] - Investment in equipment renewal and transformation was substantial, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 28.2%, 20.3 percentage points faster than the previous year [2]