Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, indicating ongoing economic recovery but with increased uncertainty in the economic fundamentals[1] - The production index in June is 51.0%, rising 0.3 percentage points from May, suggesting a return to normal operations in manufacturing[3] - The new orders index is at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, reflecting a moderate recovery in domestic demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is 51.4%, high-tech manufacturing PMI is 50.9%, and consumer goods PMI is 50.4%, all indicating expansion for two consecutive months[1] - The high-energy consumption industry PMI is 47.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, showing improvement in the sector[1] - The strategic emerging industries PMI (EPMI) fell to 47.9%, down 3.1 percentage points from May, indicating a seasonal decline in industry performance[16] Group 3: Market Outlook - The expectation for the second half of the year is a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, supported by a potential easing of US-China trade relations and risk-averse funds[2] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[2] - The overall GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to be around 5%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.7% anticipated for Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively[20]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic climate in China is showing signs of expansion, with key indices indicating a recovery in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in June. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7% in June, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [3] - Production and new orders indices were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating accelerated manufacturing activities and improved market demand [3] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, reflecting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [3] - Large enterprises showed a PMI of 51.2%, indicating significant support for the manufacturing sector, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.6% and 47.3%, respectively [4] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continued to expand, with PMIs of 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4% [4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index reached 50.5%, indicating continued expansion, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [5] - The service sector's business activity index was at 50.1%, showing stability, although some consumer-related sectors experienced a decline in activity [5] - The construction industry saw a significant increase, with a business activity index of 52.8%, up by 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activities [5] Group 3: Composite PMI - The Composite PMI Output Index rose to 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [7][8]

Group 1 - Manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, indicating a continued recovery in China's macro economy [5] - In June, the manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7%, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, reflecting an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [6] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, indicating a recovery in market demand [6] Group 2 - The price index ended a three-month decline, with the main raw material purchase price index at 48.4% and the factory price index at 46.2%, both showing improvement [7] - Large enterprises' PMI rose to 51.2%, significantly supporting the overall manufacturing sector, while small enterprises' PMI fell to 47.3% [7] - The manufacturing sector is expected to maintain steady growth in the second half of the year, driven by policy support and stable market demand [7] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector [10] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, showing stability, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.0%, reflecting optimism for future growth [10] - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8%, with civil engineering construction remaining robust [11] Group 4 - Infrastructure projects are progressing rapidly, supported by special bonds for land acquisition and government investment funds [11] - The expansion of special bond allocations is expected to stimulate more infrastructure demand, contributing to stable economic growth [11]

Economic Indicators - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, also up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May[1] Policy Impact - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the ongoing effects of growth-stabilizing policies, including a series of financial measures announced on May 7, which led to a sustained increase in social financing[2] - The new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone, indicating strong market demand[2] Trade Environment - The easing of trade tensions, particularly following the May 12 de-escalation of the "tariff war," contributed to a slight recovery in the new export orders index, which rose to 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Sector Performance - The construction PMI in June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating robust activity despite a slight decline in civil engineering indices[6] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.9%, reflecting strong demand and policy support[4] Challenges Ahead - Despite the positive indicators, the overall export slowdown may continue due to high tariffs exceeding 40% on Chinese goods[3] - The real estate market shows signs of intensified adjustment, which may limit the PMI's rebound potential[3] Future Outlook - GDP growth for the first half of the year is projected at around 5.2%, with no major new policy measures expected in the short term[7] - The manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain around 49.7% in July, but with significant downward risks due to external pressures[8]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, showing a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing sector [1] - In June, the new orders index rose to 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, marking a return to the expansion zone after two months below 50% [2] - The production index for manufacturing increased to 51%, up 0.3 percentage points, reflecting stable expansion in production activities [2] - The purchasing volume index for raw materials also returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, increasing by 2.6 percentage points [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI is at 51.4%, high-tech manufacturing PMI at 50.9%, and consumer goods PMI at 50.4%, all indicating expansion [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June is reported at 50.5%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The construction sector shows significant growth with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, and civil engineering at 56.7%, indicating strong activity [6] - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage point, but the business activity expectation index remains high at 56% [5][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic climate is showing resilience, with manufacturing PMI recovering for two consecutive months, suggesting a stable economic foundation [4] - The second quarter saw fluctuations due to external factors, but the manufacturing sector is expected to maintain steady growth in the second half of the year [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index has consistently remained above 50%, indicating stable expansion in the sector [6]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 6月30日，国家统计局公布6月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.7%、前值49.5%；非制造业PMI为 50.5%、前值50.3%。 却下行至2023年来最低水平（52%）。展望后续，设备更新周期逐步退坡，出口链生产走弱，制造业景 气面临较大下行压力。但近期扩内需政策再加码，5000亿服务消费再贷款、准财政工具（政策性开发性 金融工具）已对服务业投资进行部署，服务消费、基建投资或加快修复，有望对企业和居民预期形成支 撑。 常规跟踪：制造业、非制造业景气均有改善。 制造业：制造业：制造业PMI有所回升，生产、新订单指数延续改善。 6月，制造业PMI边际上行0.2pct 至49.7%。生产、新订单指数边际分别上行0.3、0.3pct至51%、50.2%。 核心观点：制造业景气回升，但企业预期降至低位；政策加码下，需关注微观预期的变化。 6月制造业PMI表现好于市场预期，结构上依然是生产指数恢复更好。 6月制造业PMI延续回升，边际上 行0.2pct至49.7%，好于市场预期（WIND，49.3%）。主要分项中，生产、新订单指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - Manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, but corporate expectations have dropped to a low level; increased policy support is needed to monitor changes in micro expectations [3][6][100] Manufacturing Sector - June manufacturing PMI improved to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, exceeding market expectations of 49.3% [2][10] - The production and new orders indices both rose, reaching 51% and 50.2% respectively, indicating expansion [3][10] - The new orders index showed slight improvement, with domestic demand orders recovering more than new export orders [22][98] - High-frequency indicators reveal a year-on-year decline in foreign trade cargo volume, indicating reduced export strength [22][98] Industry Analysis - High-energy-consuming industries saw a significant PMI increase, rising 0.8 percentage points to 47.8%, driven by investment and ongoing infrastructure projects [4][28] - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors also benefited from domestic demand, with PMIs rising to 51.4% and 50.4% respectively [4][28] - Food and beverage, as well as specialized equipment sectors, have maintained production and new order indices in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [4][28] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction sector's PMI rose significantly by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating rapid progress in infrastructure projects [31][99] - The civil engineering PMI reached 56.7%, remaining in a high prosperity range for three consecutive months [31][99] - In contrast, the real estate sector's construction progress appears slower, with weak performance in cement and rebar consumption [31][99] Service Sector - The service sector PMI slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, primarily due to the fading effects of holiday consumption [5][42] - Business activity indices in retail, transportation, and hospitality sectors showed varying degrees of decline, reflecting reduced market activity [5][42] - Conversely, sectors such as telecommunications and financial services maintained high business activity indices above 60% [5][42] Future Outlook - There are risks of weakening manufacturing sentiment, necessitating close attention to the impact of incremental policies on domestic demand and changes in corporate expectations [6][100] - Despite the recovery in production and new orders, the corporate expectation index has fallen to its lowest level in 2023 at 52% [6][100] - Recent policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption relending initiative, may support corporate and consumer expectations [6][100]

Core Viewpoint - In June, China's manufacturing sector showed resilience despite entering a traditional off-season, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 49.7%, the highest level in three months, indicating an expansion in manufacturing activity [1][2]. Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, reflecting a broader improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1][3]. - The continuous rise in PMI over the past two months suggests that macroeconomic recovery is underway, supported by recent policy measures [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In June, the production index and new orders index were recorded at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating accelerated manufacturing activity and improved market demand [4][5]. - The easing of external pressures, particularly in US-China trade relations, has contributed to a stabilization in manufacturing operations and a rebound in market demand [4][5]. Export and Inventory Trends - The new export orders index rose to 47.7%, showing improvement, although it remains below the expansion threshold, indicating that domestic demand is slightly outperforming external demand [5][6]. - The finished goods inventory index increased by 1.6 percentage points to 48.1%, while raw materials inventory rose by 0.6 percentage points to 48.0%, suggesting a growing willingness among enterprises to replenish stocks [5][6]. Price Trends in Manufacturing - The indices for major raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices both increased by 1.5 percentage points to 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [5][6]. Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods all maintained PMIs above 50, indicating continued expansion, while high-energy-consuming industries showed slight improvement with a PMI of 47.8% [5][6]. Enterprise-Level Insights - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, indicating continued expansion, while medium-sized enterprises saw a recovery with a PMI of 48.6%. However, small enterprises experienced a decline with a PMI of 47.3% [6]. - The overall economic resilience suggests that, barring significant external shocks, China's manufacturing sector is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in the second half of the year [6].

重点行业PMI稳中有升 产需指数同步扩张 国家统计局数据显示，从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，原材料库存指数 和从业人员指数低于临界点。 6月30日，国家统计局发布最新数据，6月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。据了解，4月份，制 造业PMI为49%，比上月下降1.5个百分点。5月份，制造业PMI为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点。6月份，制造业PMI继续上升至49.7%。 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读表示，6月份，制造业PMI升至49.7%，在调查的21个行业中有11个位于扩张区间，比上月增加4个，制造 业景气面有所扩大。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对21世纪经济报道记者表示，6月制造业PMI较上月回升0.2个百分点，好于季节性。其中，6月生产指数较上月回升0.3个百 分点，6月是传统生产淡季，但今年"淡季不淡"，企业生产仍在加快扩张。 前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙对21世纪经济报道记者表示，我国制造业PMI连续两个月出现回升，这反映出当前随 ...

本文字数：2337，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 今年二季度，受到美国关税政策变化的影响，制造业运行短期有所波动，但我国经济展现出了较强的 韧性，在短期放缓后迅速回稳。 国家统计局6月30日发布的6月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点， 连续两个月回升，制造业景气水平继续改善。非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.2个百 分点。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群表示，6月份PMI指数小幅回升，表明一系列增量政策的效 果继续显现。订单类指数回升反映扩大内需政策效果有所显现；生产指数、采购量指数上升反映企业 生产经营活动有回暖趋势。同时应注意到PMI指数仍处荣枯线下，生产经营活动预期指数仍在下降， 反映需求不足的企业占比仍在扩大，市场引导的需求收缩对制造业生产投资的制约仍然突出。 2025.06. 30 张立群强调，当前宏观经济政策逆周期调节与市场引导的需求收缩正处相互角力的关键阶段，必须坚 持不懈持续加大扩内需各项政策力度，特别要显著加强政府公共产品投资力度，扩大投资规模，有效 有力带动制造业企业订单显著增加，带动制造业生产投资持续活跃。 产需指 ...