国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会今天（31日）发布12月份中国制造业采购经理指数。数据显示，12月我国制造业市场需求有所释放，企业生产较好扩 张，市场价格向好运行。12月份中国制造业采购经理指数为50.1%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，指数升至扩张区间，显示制造业回升向好。12月份制造业新订 单指数为50.8%，较上月上升1.6个百分点。需求端释放以及政策预期向好带动制造业企业生产活动较好扩张，生产指数为51.7%，较上月上升1.7个百分点。 制造业除了规模平稳扩张外，结构方面也呈现积极变化。高技术制造业采购经理指数为52.5%，较上月上升2.4个百分点，扩张势头明显加快。消费品制造业 采购经理指数为50.4%，较上月上升1个百分点。12月制造业生产经营活动预期指数为55.5%，较上月上升2.4个百分点，创2024年4月以来新高。2025年，我 国经济在宏观经济政策发力以及国内经济韧性显现等积极因素的支撑下，运行态势整体稳定，制造业采购经理指数全年均值为49.6%，与2024年全年均值基 本持平。预计2026年，在多个积极因素联动推进下，制造业有望实现稳中有增。 2025年12月中国采购经理指数运行情况 一、中 ...

我国经济景气水平总体回升。 12月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此，国家 统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 （三）重点行业PMI均高于上月。高技术制造业PMI为52.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分点，行业增长态势 向好。装备制造业和消费品行业PMI均为50.4%，分别比上月上升0.6个和1.0个百分点，双双升至扩张区 间。高耗能行业PMI为48.9%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，景气水平继续回升。 （四）预期指数升至较高景气区间。生产经营活动预期指数为55.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分点，制造业 企业对市场发展信心继续增强。从行业看，受节前备货等因素带动，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制 茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数均升至60.0%以上高位景气区间，相关企业对近期行业发展更为乐观。 二、非制造业商务活动指数重回扩张区间 12月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，非制造业景气水平改善。 （一）服务业景气度小幅回升。服务业商务活动指数为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点。从行业看，电 信广播电视及卫星传输服务、货币金融服务、 ...

智通财经APP获悉，12月31日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理 指数。对此，国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。12月份，制造业采购经理指 数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%、50.2%和50.7%，比上月上升0.9个、0.7 个和1.0个百分点，三大指数均升至扩张区间，我国经济景气水平总体回升。 （三）重点行业PMI均高于上月。高技术制造业PMI为52.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分点，行业增长态势 向好。装备制造业和消费品行业PMI均为50.4%，分别比上月上升0.6个和1.0个百分点，双双升至扩张区 间。高耗能行业PMI为48.9%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，景气水平继续回升。 全文如下： 12月份中国采购经理指数均升至扩张区间 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读2025年12月中国采购经理指数 2025年12月31日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 12月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数 ...

12月份中国采购经理指数均升至扩张区间 （三）重点行业PMI均高于上月。高技术制造业PMI为52.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分点，行业增长态势 向好。装备制造业和消费品行业PMI均为50.4%，分别比上月上升0.6个和1.0个百分点，双双升至扩张区 间。高耗能行业PMI为48.9%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，景气水平继续回升。 （四）预期指数升至较高景气区间。生产经营活动预期指数为55.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分点，制造业 企业对市场发展信心继续增强。从行业看，受节前备货等因素带动，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制 茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数均升至60.0%以上高位景气区间，相关企业对近期行业发展更为乐观。 二、非制造业商务活动指数重回扩张区间 12月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，非制造业景气水平改善。 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读2025年12月中国采购经理指数 2025年12月31日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 12月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业 ...

据中国政府网，近期，多部门召开工作会议，梳理总结2025年工作，研究部署2026年重点任务。2026年收入、消费、住房、生育等方面将有哪些变 化，一起来看看。 明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策 根据全国财政工作会议，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工具组合，更好发 挥债券效益。三是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优化支出结构，强化重点领域保障。五是加强财政金融协同，放大政 策效能。 明年财政将促进居民就业增收 根据全国发展和改革工作会议，2026年，将综合整治"内卷式"竞争和培育发展新动能。完善重点行业产能治理和重大基础设施调控，大力培育壮大 新兴产业和未来产业，培育壮大若干新兴支柱产业，深化拓展"人工智能+"行动，补齐科技服务业短板，完善低空经济产业生态，深入推进数字经济 高质量发展。 根据全国财政工作会议，2026年，将进一步强化保基本、兜底线，切实加强民生保障。明年将促进居民就业增收：统筹就业补助资金、失业保险基 金等各类资金，引导支持企业稳岗扩岗、重点群体就业创业等；积极发挥税收、社会保障、转移支付等调节作用，多渠道增加居 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a plan by six departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, promoting a two-way interaction between supply and demand, and facilitating economic circulation [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Interaction - The plan outlines 19 key tasks to expand new demand, tap into existing demand, segment markets, empower scenarios, and optimize the environment, emphasizing the need for a systemic reconstruction of production modes, value connotations, and market environments [1]. - The current structural contradictions on the supply side are identified as major obstacles to unleashing consumption potential, necessitating a transformation from traditional supply models to more responsive and flexible production systems [1]. Group 2: Innovation and Upgrading - The plan encourages the upgrading of existing products and precise segmentation of niche markets, focusing on green, healthy, and intelligent product iterations to align with the evolving consumer preferences from survival to development and enjoyment [2]. - It emphasizes the importance of catering to diverse age groups by enhancing the supply of products for infants, students, fashion items, and senior citizens, reflecting a comprehensive approach to consumer needs throughout the lifecycle [2]. Group 3: Consumer Experience and Environment - The article highlights the significance of innovative consumption scenarios and environments as essential for transforming demand into consumption, with examples of recent innovations that cater to diverse consumer needs and stimulate economic recovery [2]. - The plan stresses the need for financial support and improved quality assurance measures to enhance consumer confidence and safety, thereby fostering a conducive environment for consumption [2]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article concludes that aligning supply with consumer preferences and activating domestic demand will effectively stimulate the internal dynamics of China's large-scale market, transitioning consumption from quantity expansion to quality enhancement, thus contributing to high-quality economic development [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral to positive investment rating for the bond market. It suggests that investors may increase their allocation to fixed - income assets such as bonds at the end of the year, and is optimistic about the bond market's performance in the medium term. [4][37] 2. Core Viewpoints - Manufacturing demand drives production recovery, with the November manufacturing PMI rising slightly to 49.20%, but still below the boom - bust line. The new order index and production index have both increased. The improvement in the foreign trade environment due to Sino - US economic and trade consultations has led to an overall recovery in demand, which in turn has accelerated production. [2][13] - The improvement in the international trade environment has led to a recovery in external demand, driving a phased repair of demand. The new export order index and import index have both increased in November, and the BDI index has increased by 31.28%. However, there are still uncertainties in exports that may affect the fourth - quarter economic trend. [2][23] - The manufacturing price end continues to show positive changes. The raw material purchase price index remains in the expansion range, the ex - factory price index has increased, and the inventory of finished products has decreased, which may promote the repair of the manufacturing production end. [3][27] - Non - manufacturing business has slowed down. The service industry PMI has declined due to the high - base effect of the National Day holiday, and the construction industry is still in the contraction range, but infrastructure - related activities continue to grow. [3][34] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Manufacturing Production Shows Slight Repair - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.20%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The new order index rose 0.40 percentage points to 49.20%, and the production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 50.00%. [13] - Among different manufacturing industries, the PMI of high - tech manufacturing remains in the expansion range, while the PMI of equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries has fallen into the contraction range, and the PMI of basic raw material industries has increased. [13] 3.2 External Environment Drives Demand Recovery - In November, the new export order index was 47.60%, up 1.70 percentage points from the previous value, and the import index was 47.00%, up 0.20 percentage points from the previous value. The BDI index increased by 31.28% in November, indicating an improvement in the external trade environment. [23] - The short - term external environment is easing, but there are still uncertainties in exports that may affect the fourth - quarter economic trend. [23] 3.3 Positive Changes in the Price End Continue - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index remains in the expansion range, and the ex - factory price index has increased. The difference between the two has widened by 0.4 percentage points to 5.40pct. [27] - The raw material purchase price index in November was 53.60%, better than the average of the past five years. The procurement volume index has increased slightly, the ex - factory price index has increased, and the inventory of finished products has decreased. [27] - The economic kinetic energy index in November was 1.90pct, up 1.20 percentage points. The positive recovery in prices may reflect the policy effect of rectifying "involution - style" competition, and the PPI data in November may also show a reaction. [27][29] 3.4 Attention Should Be Paid to Corporate Business Vitality - In November, the PMI of large enterprises was 49.30%, down 0.60 percentage points from the previous value, while the PMI of medium - sized and small enterprises increased by 0.20 and 2.00 percentage points respectively. [32] - The recovery of external demand helps to improve the prosperity of small and medium - sized enterprises, but the prosperity of large enterprises is the guarantee of the overall business vitality of domestic enterprises and needs continuous attention. [32] 3.5 Non - manufacturing Prosperity Declines - In November, the official non - manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, down 0.60 percentage points from the previous value. The service industry PMI was 49.50%, down 0.70 percentage points from the previous value due to the high - base effect of the National Day holiday. [34] - After the concentrated release of consumer demand during the National Day Golden Week, the business activity indexes of consumer - related service industries have declined to varying degrees, but the business activity index and new order index of the financial industry have increased significantly. [34] - The construction industry is still in the contraction range, with the business activity index at 49.60%, up 0.50 percentage points from the previous value. Infrastructure - related activities continue to grow, and investment is expected to strengthen at the end of the year. [35] 3.6 Investment Suggestion - The PMI data has a neutral to positive impact on the bond market. As the market sentiment adjusts, investors may increase their allocation to fixed - income assets such as bonds at the end of the year. In the short term, attention should be paid to policy expectations such as the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting. In the medium term, the bond market is expected to perform well. [4][37]

2025 年 12 月 02 日 固定收益研究团队 制造业景气水平小幅回升，市场预期仍保持乐观 ——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布 2025 年 11 月采购经理指数运行情况，制造业 PMI为 49.2% （前值为 49.0%，下同），环比提升 0.2pct；非制造业 PMI 为 49.5%（50.1%）， 环比下降 0.6pct；综合 PMI 为 49.7%（50.0%），环比下降 0.3pct。 11 月 PMI 数据关注点 11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.2%（49.0%），环比提升 0.2pct，同比下降 1.1pct，制造业 景气水平小幅回升，生产活动较 10 月有所修复。 出口改善拉动生产修复，制造业景气水平小幅回升，但仍处收缩区间。制造业 整体景气度在国际局势缓和及政策支持下逐步企稳回升，但整体回升幅度不大， 且已连续 8 个月位于收缩区间。中美达成缓和协议后，11 月 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - In November, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions [2] - Both production index and new orders index improved, reaching 50.0% and 49.2% respectively, with production index crossing the critical point [2] - Small enterprises showed significant recovery with PMI at 49.1%, marking a 2.0 percentage point increase, the highest in six months [2][3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing economic conditions [4] - The service industry index fell to 49.5%, influenced by the end of holiday effects, while certain sectors like railway transport and financial services remained robust [5] - The construction industry index improved to 49.6%, with a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, reflecting increased confidence in the sector [5] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, with manufacturing production index at 50.0% and non-manufacturing business activity index at 49.5% [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for November is reported at 49.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index for November are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in production and demand [1] - The new export orders index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, marking the second highest point since April, reflecting strong resilience in exports [1] Group 2: Business Confidence and Expectations - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1%, indicating heightened confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments [2] - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) showed significant improvement, with their PMIs rising to 49.1% and 48.9%, respectively, while large enterprises saw a decline to 49.3% [2] - High-tech manufacturing continues to expand, with a PMI of 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months, demonstrating sustained growth in this sector [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Inventory Levels - The purchasing price index for major raw materials increased to 53.6%, while the factory price index rose to 48.2%, indicating a supportive environment for market prices due to improved supply and demand dynamics [3] - The procurement willingness index improved to 49.5%, reflecting a positive shift in purchasing behavior among enterprises [3] - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 49.6%, showing signs of recovery, although it remains below the threshold of expansion [3] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points, indicating a return to contraction territory [4] - The new orders index for the service sector dropped to 45.6%, highlighting pressure on demand and insufficient recovery momentum [4] - Despite short-term demand disruptions, the service sector's confidence remains supported, with expectations for recovery as policy benefits are realized [4]