| Millio | ■控期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月03日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属偏强震荡。本周鲍威尔讲话重申在经济依然稳健的情况下美联储选择保持耐心,下一步行动将完 全取决于数据表现。昨晚美国ADP就业人数减少3.3万人录得2023年3月以来最大降幅，降息预期升温，市场 基本完全定价美联储将于9月完成降息，聚焦非农数据对就业的验证，因美国独立纪念日该数据将于今晚公 布。 ★特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南市场将对美国全面开放，越南将向美国支付20%的关税，适用于任 何进入美国领土的商品，且对转运货物征收40%的关税;越南国家媒体称美国将大幅削减多种越南产品的关 税。 ★当地时间7月3日，西门子公司称，美国商务部已通知全球三大芯片设计软件供应 ...

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Developments - The U.S. government has lifted restrictions on ethane exports to China, signaling a potential truce in the ongoing trade war [1][3][4] - Eight ships have already set sail for China following the removal of these restrictions, which had previously caused delays [4] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has notified companies that they can now load ethane onto ships bound for China without needing separate authorization for unloading [3][4] Group 2: Semiconductor Design Software Export Restrictions - The U.S. has also lifted export restrictions on three major semiconductor design software suppliers: Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens [2][5] - Siemens confirmed that the previous requirement for government licensing for their business in China has been revoked, allowing them to resume sales and technical support [5][6] - Synopsys announced that it is restoring access to affected products in the Chinese market and expects to complete system updates within three business days [6][7] - These three companies collectively held approximately 82% of the EDA software market in China last year [7]

摘要 1、今天，A股三大指数集体上涨，沪指再创年内新高，创业板指涨近2%，消费电子板块领涨。 2、 科技板块迎重磅利好， 七月券商金股集中在成长风格 ，哪些基金值得关注？ 3、 A股6月新开户165万户，同比增长53%，后市会怎么走？如何做好资产配置？ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1379 篇白话财经- - 今天，A股三大指数集体上涨，沪指再创年内新高，创业板指涨近2%。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/7/3，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额1.31万亿元，盘面上，消费电子、电子元件、通信设备等科技板块领涨，中药、汽车等板块涨幅居前。 1、美国取消全球三大芯片设计软件供应商对华出口限制 分析人士指出， 国内经济呈现"政策托底、结构转型加速"的特征，产业政策强力推动制造业升级与高科技发展，资本市场持续深化改革，A股市场具 备长期上涨动力。 重磅利好，科技板块重燃升势 今天，在利好作用下，科技板块重燃升势，带领A股继续上涨，是否意味着调整结束了？哪些细分领域值得关注？ 当地时间7月3日， 特朗普政府取消了近期针对在华销售芯片设计软件的出口许可要求，这一举措是在 中 美双方执行一项旨在放宽关 ...

Group 1 - Dow futures rose by 0.05%, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures gained 0.11% [1] - Chip design software stocks saw pre-market gains, with Synopsys and Cadence Design Systems both rising over 6% [1] - TripAdvisor Inc. experienced a pre-market increase of over 5% following news that Starboard Value LP holds more than 9% of the company [1] - Datadog surged over 11% in pre-market trading after being announced as a new addition to the S&P 500 index [1] - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide injection received approval for its third indication, now being the first and only prescription drug for treating moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea in adults in China [1] Group 2 - OpenAI denied any association with Robinhood's tokenized stocks, clarifying that any transfer of OpenAI equity requires their approval [2] - The U.S. House of Representatives advanced the "Big and Beautiful" bill, a large-scale tax and spending proposal, with a narrow vote of 219 to 213 [2] - Amazon announced two significant milestones in robotics and AI: the launch of a new AI foundational model called Deep Fleet and the deployment of over 1 million robots [2]

美股芯片设计软件股盘前纷纷走高，其中，新思科技、楷登电子均涨超5%。 ...

美国芯片设计软件股盘前走高，新思科技涨5.7%，楷登电子涨5.5%。 ...

据美国彭博社今天（7月3日）援引西门子公司的消息证实，美国政府已解除对华芯片设计软件出口的许 可证要求。西门子公司称，美国商务部已通知全球三大芯片设计软件供应商——新思科技、楷登电子和 西门子，此前要求其在华业务必须申请政府许可的规定现已撤销。西门子公司表示已全面恢复中国客户 对其软件和技术的访问权限，新思科技与楷登电子称正在逐步重启相关服务。（CCTV国际时讯） ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has informed Siemens that it no longer requires "government permission" to conduct business in China, indicating a shift in export control policies [1] - This change is part of a broader trade agreement aimed at facilitating the flow of critical technologies between the U.S. and China, following previous restrictions on chip design software exports [1][2] - Siemens, a leading supplier of chip design software, has restored full access for its Chinese customers to its software and technology [1] Group 2 - In May, the Trump administration had imposed export controls on chip design software to China in response to China's restrictions on rare earth mineral exports [2] - The Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software, while a small segment of the semiconductor industry, is crucial for chip designers and manufacturers in developing and testing next-generation chips [2][4] - Recent reports also indicate that the U.S. government has lifted restrictions on ethane exports to China, suggesting a potential thaw in trade relations [4]

Core Viewpoint - Synopsys (SNPS.US) reported better-than-expected Q2 results for fiscal year 2025, but its stock experienced volatility due to ongoing concerns over U.S. export restrictions [1][3] Financial Performance - Q2 Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $3.67, a year-over-year increase of approximately 22.33%, exceeding market expectations [1] - Revenue for Q2 reached $1.604 billion, up 10.28% year-over-year, surpassing the anticipated $1.599 billion [1] - Revenue breakdown: Automation Design segment generated $1.122 billion, while the IP Design segment brought in $482 million [1] Analyst Ratings and Outlook - Wells Fargo maintains a "Hold" rating on Synopsys with a target price of $520, noting a "clean" earnings report ahead of the planned acquisition of ANSYS (ANSS.US) [1] - Morgan Stanley holds an "Overweight" rating with a target price of $590, highlighting that Q2 sales met expectations and earnings outperformed, although Q3 guidance was weaker than anticipated [3] - Analysts express confidence in Synopsys's ability to complete the acquisition of ANSYS in H1 2025 despite geopolitical tensions [3] Market Conditions and Challenges - The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is requiring Synopsys and ANSYS to divest certain assets to facilitate their $35 billion merger [2] - Reports indicate that the U.S. Department of Commerce has requested EDA companies to halt sales to China, creating market uncertainty [3][4] - Despite a soft demand in the non-AI market, there are signs of stabilization in the industrial and automotive sectors [3]