| Millio | ■控期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月03日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属偏强震荡。本周鲍威尔讲话重申在经济依然稳健的情况下美联储选择保持耐心,下一步行动将完 全取决于数据表现。昨晚美国ADP就业人数减少3.3万人录得2023年3月以来最大降幅，降息预期升温，市场 基本完全定价美联储将于9月完成降息，聚焦非农数据对就业的验证，因美国独立纪念日该数据将于今晚公 布。 ★特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南市场将对美国全面开放，越南将向美国支付20%的关税，适用于任 何进入美国领土的商品，且对转运货物征收40%的关税;越南国家媒体称美国将大幅削减多种越南产品的关 税。 ★当地时间7月3日，西门子公司称，美国商务部已通知全球三大芯片设计软件供应 ...

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Developments - The U.S. government has lifted restrictions on ethane exports to China, signaling a potential truce in the ongoing trade war [1][3][4] - Eight ships have already set sail for China following the removal of these restrictions, which had previously caused delays [4] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has notified companies that they can now load ethane onto ships bound for China without needing separate authorization for unloading [3][4] Group 2: Semiconductor Design Software Export Restrictions - The U.S. has also lifted export restrictions on three major semiconductor design software suppliers: Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens [2][5] - Siemens confirmed that the previous requirement for government licensing for their business in China has been revoked, allowing them to resume sales and technical support [5][6] - Synopsys announced that it is restoring access to affected products in the Chinese market and expects to complete system updates within three business days [6][7] - These three companies collectively held approximately 82% of the EDA software market in China last year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, driven by the technology sector and consumer electronics [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - All three major A-share indices rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new annual high and the ChiNext Index increasing by nearly 2% [1][2]. - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.31 trillion yuan, with the technology sector, including consumer electronics, electronic components, and communication equipment, leading the gains [4]. Group 2: Technology Sector Developments - A significant boost for the technology sector came from the U.S. lifting export restrictions on three major chip design software suppliers to China, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese tech companies [6][7]. - Honor launched its new lightweight foldable flagship product, the Honor Magic V5, which is currently the lightest and thinnest foldable flagship in the industry, further stimulating the consumer electronics sector [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - In July, brokerage firms identified the electronics sector as a key focus, with 12.8% of their recommended stocks concentrated in this area, followed by power equipment and pharmaceuticals [12][13]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions indicate a structural slow bull market, with the potential for further upward movement after breaking the 3400-point mark [20][22]. Group 4: New Investor Trends - In June 2025, A-share new account openings reached 1.65 million, a year-on-year increase of 53.35%, indicating a recovery in market activity and investor confidence [20][22]. - The steady growth in new accounts is seen as a foundation for the market's performance in the second half of the year, influenced by policy continuity and market profitability [22]. Group 5: Sector Performance Insights - Historical data suggests that sectors such as military industry, new energy, and resource products like steel and chemicals have a higher probability of performing well in July [23][25]. - The military sector is expected to benefit from upcoming policy catalysts and order releases, while resource sectors are supported by seasonal demand and supply constraints [25].

Group 1 - Dow futures rose by 0.05%, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures gained 0.11% [1] - Chip design software stocks saw pre-market gains, with Synopsys and Cadence Design Systems both rising over 6% [1] - TripAdvisor Inc. experienced a pre-market increase of over 5% following news that Starboard Value LP holds more than 9% of the company [1] - Datadog surged over 11% in pre-market trading after being announced as a new addition to the S&P 500 index [1] - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide injection received approval for its third indication, now being the first and only prescription drug for treating moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea in adults in China [1] Group 2 - OpenAI denied any association with Robinhood's tokenized stocks, clarifying that any transfer of OpenAI equity requires their approval [2] - The U.S. House of Representatives advanced the "Big and Beautiful" bill, a large-scale tax and spending proposal, with a narrow vote of 219 to 213 [2] - Amazon announced two significant milestones in robotics and AI: the launch of a new AI foundational model called Deep Fleet and the deployment of over 1 million robots [2]

美股芯片设计软件股盘前纷纷走高，其中，新思科技、楷登电子均涨超5%。 ...

美国芯片设计软件股盘前走高，新思科技涨5.7%，楷登电子涨5.5%。 ...

据美国彭博社今天（7月3日）援引西门子公司的消息证实，美国政府已解除对华芯片设计软件出口的许 可证要求。西门子公司称，美国商务部已通知全球三大芯片设计软件供应商——新思科技、楷登电子和 西门子，此前要求其在华业务必须申请政府许可的规定现已撤销。西门子公司表示已全面恢复中国客户 对其软件和技术的访问权限，新思科技与楷登电子称正在逐步重启相关服务。（CCTV国际时讯） ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has informed Siemens that it no longer requires "government permission" to conduct business in China, indicating a shift in export control policies [1] - This change is part of a broader trade agreement aimed at facilitating the flow of critical technologies between the U.S. and China, following previous restrictions on chip design software exports [1][2] - Siemens, a leading supplier of chip design software, has restored full access for its Chinese customers to its software and technology [1] Group 2 - In May, the Trump administration had imposed export controls on chip design software to China in response to China's restrictions on rare earth mineral exports [2] - The Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software, while a small segment of the semiconductor industry, is crucial for chip designers and manufacturers in developing and testing next-generation chips [2][4] - Recent reports also indicate that the U.S. government has lifted restrictions on ethane exports to China, suggesting a potential thaw in trade relations [4]

Core Viewpoint - Synopsys (SNPS.US) reported better-than-expected Q2 results for fiscal year 2025, but its stock experienced volatility due to ongoing concerns over U.S. export restrictions [1][3] Financial Performance - Q2 Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $3.67, a year-over-year increase of approximately 22.33%, exceeding market expectations [1] - Revenue for Q2 reached $1.604 billion, up 10.28% year-over-year, surpassing the anticipated $1.599 billion [1] - Revenue breakdown: Automation Design segment generated $1.122 billion, while the IP Design segment brought in $482 million [1] Analyst Ratings and Outlook - Wells Fargo maintains a "Hold" rating on Synopsys with a target price of $520, noting a "clean" earnings report ahead of the planned acquisition of ANSYS (ANSS.US) [1] - Morgan Stanley holds an "Overweight" rating with a target price of $590, highlighting that Q2 sales met expectations and earnings outperformed, although Q3 guidance was weaker than anticipated [3] - Analysts express confidence in Synopsys's ability to complete the acquisition of ANSYS in H1 2025 despite geopolitical tensions [3] Market Conditions and Challenges - The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is requiring Synopsys and ANSYS to divest certain assets to facilitate their $35 billion merger [2] - Reports indicate that the U.S. Department of Commerce has requested EDA companies to halt sales to China, creating market uncertainty [3][4] - Despite a soft demand in the non-AI market, there are signs of stabilization in the industrial and automotive sectors [3]