商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 16 日 铜：外强内弱，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 美国非农就业报告发布前夕，市场情绪谨慎。AI 概念股的抛售潮仍在继续，博通和甲骨文等延续了上 周的跌势，拖累了科技股和整体美股大盘。（华尔街见闻） 产业方面，智利央行公布的数据显示，智利 11 月铜出口额为 42.82 亿美元，较上年同期增长 4.57%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 92,400 | -1.79% | 92410 | 0.01% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 11,686 | 1.16% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 560,196 | 144,589 | 630,265 | -16,648 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 23,1 ...

在人工智能和数字化转型时代，数据中心的建设对铜需求呈现爆炸式增长。当前微软、谷歌、亚马逊以 及Meta正在大举建设的大型AI数据中心的电力传输与算力集群铜缆高速互联系统，以及散热系统和高 性能电子设备等高度依赖铜。这种结构性的新增需求正逐步成为铜市场新的需求增长引擎。 对矿业投资者们而言，2025年，可谓是一个由铜、黄金和白银市场火热所驱动的投资回报爆棚的一年。 欧洲股市的Stoxx 600基础资源指数今年迄今上涨22%，在欧洲股票市场的各行业组别中表现排名第三。 智通财经获悉，澳大利亚大型矿业集团Fortescue周一表示，将收购总部位于加拿大的铜矿资源开发公司 Alta Copper剩余的64%股权，该交易意味着这家在多伦多上市的铜矿商总股权价值约为1.39亿加元(1.01 亿美元)。此项涉及铜矿行业的最新收购，凸显出在铜期货价格屡创历史新高之际，头部矿商更倾向通 过并购"提前卡位"铜资源。当大宗商品市场开始给"稀缺性"定价时，头部矿商们往往倾向于通过并购/ 控股优质资源项目，锁定未来供给与成长性。 据了解，Fortescue通过其旗下公司Nascent Exploration，拟以每股1.40加元的现金 ...

智通财经获悉，澳大利亚大型矿业集团Fortescue周一表示，将收购总部位于加拿大的铜矿资源开发公司 Alta Copper剩余的64%股权，该交易意味着这家在多伦多上市的铜矿商总股权价值约为1.39亿加元(1.01 亿美元)。此项涉及铜矿行业的最新收购，凸显出在铜期货价格屡创历史新高之际，头部矿商更倾向通 过并购"提前卡位"铜资源。当大宗商品市场开始给"稀缺性"定价时，头部矿商们往往倾向于通过并购/ 控股优质资源项目，锁定未来供给与成长性。 据了解，Fortescue通过其旗下公司Nascent Exploration，拟以每股1.40加元的现金收购其尚未持有的Alta 股份。该收购报价较Alta上周五市场收盘价足足溢价14.8%。 此次重磅收购交易发生之际，全球第四大铁矿石矿商Fortescue正寻求在铜矿领域加速扩张。近期国际铜 价屡次创下历史新高点位，且金融市场参与者们普遍预计全球消耗端对于该大宗商品金属的需求将持续 激增。 矿业巨头们顺势"铜价新高+紧供给"周期，提前锁定增长型金属 铜被广泛应用于电力、建筑、工业机械、交通运输、通信等多个领域，这些领域正是全球经济活动的核 心。因此，当政府出台增长促 ...

智通财经APP获悉，澳大利亚大型矿业集团Fortescue周一表示，将收购总部位于加拿大的铜矿资源开发 公司Alta Copper剩余的64%股权，该交易意味着这家在多伦多上市的铜矿商总股权价值约为1.39亿加元 (1.01亿美元)。此项涉及铜矿行业的最新收购，凸显出在铜期货价格屡创历史新高之际，头部矿商更倾 向通过并购"提前卡位"铜资源。当大宗商品市场开始给"稀缺性"定价时，头部矿商们往往倾向于通过并 购/控股优质资源项目，锁定未来供给与成长性。 据了解，Fortescue通过其旗下公司Nascent Exploration，拟以每股1.40加元的现金收购其尚未持有的Alta 股份。该收购报价较Alta上周五市场收盘价足足溢价14.8%。 此次重磅收购交易发生之际，全球第四大铁矿石矿商Fortescue正寻求在铜矿领域加速扩张。近期国际铜 价屡次创下历史新高点位，且金融市场参与者们普遍预计全球消耗端对于该大宗商品金属的需求将持续 激增。 被视为全球经济风向标的LME铜价今年迄今涨超30%，今年绝大多数涨幅发生在近一个月，美国铜期货 价格则仍然处于创新高进程。铜价强劲上涨除了受益于需求激增以及特朗普关税压力， ...

智通财经APP获悉，澳大利亚大型矿业集团Fortescue周一表示，将收购总部位于加拿大的铜矿资源开发 公司Alta Copper剩余的64%股权，该交易意味着这家在多伦多上市的铜矿商总股权价值约为1.39亿加元 (1.01亿美元)。此项涉及铜矿行业的最新收购，凸显出在铜期货价格屡创历史新高之际，头部矿商更倾 向通过并购"提前卡位"铜资源。当大宗商品市场开始给"稀缺性"定价时，头部矿商们往往倾向于通过并 购/控股优质资源项目，锁定未来供给与成长性。 被视为全球经济风向标的LME铜价今年迄今涨超30%，今年绝大多数涨幅发生在近一个月，美国铜期货 价格则仍然处于创新高进程。铜价强劲上涨除了受益于需求激增以及特朗普关税压力，同时也受益于今 年以来持续走弱的美元指数(DXY)——这使得持有其他货币的投资者购买铜等金属更为便宜，此外，今 年以来美联储与欧洲央行所主导的全球利率下行轨迹也是推动铜价的核心驱动力。 包括Fortescue铁矿石竞争对手必和必拓集团和力拓在内的其他大型矿商，也在寻求积极提高其对铜业务 的风险敞口，以实现矿业组合多元化。Alta Copper全资拥有位于秘鲁北部的Canariaco铜矿项目。 F ...

Group 1 - Fortescue plans to acquire the remaining 64% stake in Alta Copper for approximately CAD 139 million (USD 101 million), highlighting a trend among major miners to secure copper resources amid rising copper prices [1] - The acquisition price of CAD 1.40 per share represents a 14.8% premium over Alta's closing price last Friday, indicating strong market interest in copper assets [1] - The global copper price has surged over 30% this year, with significant increases occurring in the past month, driven by heightened demand and a weakening US dollar [2] Group 2 - Major mining companies, including Fortescue, BHP, and Rio Tinto, are actively seeking to diversify their portfolios by increasing exposure to copper, which is seen as a growth metal amid supply constraints [3][5] - The demand for copper is expected to rise significantly due to its applications in various sectors, including power, construction, and AI data centers, which are becoming new growth engines for the copper market [3] - Analysts remain bullish on copper mining stocks for the coming years, citing ongoing demand from energy, AI data centers, and global defense industries, while also noting potential risks from economic slowdowns in Asia [4]

智利《信使报》12月11日报道，智利铜业委员会（Cochilco）发布2025至2034年矿业投 资项目报告，显示未来十年矿业投资总额达1045.49亿美元，较上一统计增长25.7%，创 近11年来最高纪录。矿业部长威廉姆斯表示，这反映了智利矿业重拾活力，投资增长 彰显了对国家及矿业向更现代、可持续和竞争力转型的信心。投资中89.8%集中于铜矿 项目，达历史最高水平，主要受益于强劲的铜价推动新项目落地及旧项目重启。锂矿 投资自2021年纳入统计后显著增长，2025年预计达47亿美元，较四年前翻番，其中国 家矿业公司与力拓合作的安第斯高地盐湖项目投资达32亿美元，是智利国家锂战略下 公私合营模式的重要里程碑。从项目类型看，81%为现有矿区的扩建与优化项目，19% 为全新绿地项目；从进展看，41%已进入执行阶段，其余处于预可研、可研等前期阶 段。按地区划分，安托法加斯塔大区以402亿美元投资额领先，主要受大规模扩产及运 营延续项目驱动，其次是塔拉帕卡大区（144.7亿美元）。报告同时指出投资仍面临不 确定性，约40%为潜在项目，需完成技术、环境或融资方面的最终决策。 （原标题：智利未来十年矿业投资规划超千亿美元） ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core Views - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there were differences within the committee. The US faces challenges of rising prices and a cooling labor market. The market shows different trends for various commodities, with some in a state of shock, some with potential for short - term rebound, and others facing supply - demand imbalances [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals Gold and Silver - Gold prices were affected by the Fed's interest rate cut. Silver reached a new high, breaking through 60. The market showed certain price fluctuations and trading volume changes [14][18]. Copper - The decline of the US dollar supported copper prices. There were some impacts on supply from mining companies, and China's copper imports increased year - on - year [22][24]. Zinc - Zinc prices fell from a high level, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory [25]. Lead - The reduction in inventory limited the decline of lead prices [28]. Tin - There were disturbances in tin supply [31]. Aluminum, Alumina and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, alumina had a slight rebound, and casting aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [34]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum faced obvious pressure at the upper level, while palladium fluctuated upward [39][41]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The structural surplus of nickel changed, but the game contradictions remained unchanged. The supply and demand of stainless steel continued to be weak, and the cost - support logic was strengthened [43]. Lithium Carbonate - The news of large - scale production resumption was repeated, and the price was in a high - level shock [48]. 3.2 Industrial Minerals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, the price was affected by factors such as inventory and cost. The details of the equity of the polysilicon platform company were announced, and the market suggested buying on dips [51][53]. Iron Ore - The downstream demand space of iron ore was limited, and the valuation was high [54]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Affected by the sentiment of the real estate sector, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices were in a low - level shock [57][60]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon were in a wide - range shock [62]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal prices were in a wide - range shock [65]. Logs - Log prices were in a low - level shock [69]. 3.3 Chemicals Paraxylene (PX), Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) and Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) - PX was in a high - level shock market with cost support. PTA had cost support and was suitable for positive spread trading. MEG's device production cut scale expanded, and the downward space was limited [73][81]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber was in a shock operation, and synthetic rubber was in a range operation [84][87]. Asphalt - Due to geopolitical factors, asphalt had a phased slight rebound [91]. Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) and Polypropylene (PP) - LLDPE prices fell unilaterally, and the basis weakened again. PP faced upstream selling pressure, and the price difference between powder and granular materials was inverted [103][105]. Caustic Soda - It was not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda, as it faced high - production and high - inventory situations [108][109]. Pulp - Pulp prices were in a shock - upward trend. Although there was no significant change in the supply - demand fundamentals, the market was affected by factors such as low - valuation capital speculation [9][114]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets was stable, but the market faced problems of weak demand and high inventory [117][118]. Methanol - Methanol prices were under pressure. In the short term, it was in a weak operation, and in the medium - term, the high - supply pressure was the main contradiction [120][123]. Urea - Urea prices were in a shock operation. The demand side improved stage by stage, and the price was supported by the reduction of inventory, but there was also policy pressure [125][128]. Styrene - Styrene was in a short - term shock. The pure benzene market was in a bottom - shock state, and the supply pressure of styrene was not large [129][130]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changed little, with stable prices and weak downstream demand [132]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Propylene - LPG prices had wide - range fluctuations affected by cost factors. Propylene supply had an incremental expectation, and the upward driving force was limited [135][136]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - PVC prices were in a low - level shock. The high - production and high - inventory structure was difficult to change in the short term [144][145]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the center of the low - sulfur fuel oil market shifted downward at night [147]. 3.4 Shipping - The PA alliance's performance exceeded expectations, driving the sentiment of the container freight index (European line) to improve. The 2602 contract was in a shock market in the medium - term, and it was advisable to short the 2604 contract on rallies [149][161]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both short fiber and bottle chip faced medium - term pressure, and it was advisable to short the processing margin on rallies [163][164]. Offset Printing Paper - It was advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper, with stable prices and weak market demand [166][167]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene was in a short - term shock, with inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand in the short term, but the supply was expected to shrink in the future [171][172]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil was expected to have a short - term rebound after the release of negative factors. Soybean oil fluctuated mainly due to insufficient driving force from US soybeans [174][179]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean meal might follow the rebound of US soybeans. Soybean prices were in a shock [180][183]. Corn - Corn prices were in a shock operation, with price changes in different regions [184][185]. Sugar - Sugar prices were in a low - level shock, with different production and consumption situations in domestic and international markets [190][193]. Cotton - Cotton prices were in a shock - upward trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [195][197]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were in a shock [199]. Hogs - The market had already priced in the Winter Solstice expectation in advance, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [201][202]. Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the peanut spot market, with stable prices in most regions and small - scale price fluctuations in some areas [205][206].

Summary of the Conference Call for Cangge Mining Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses Cangge Mining, focusing on its operations in the potassium chloride and lithium carbonate sectors, as well as its investments in copper mining through its stake in Jilong Copper Industry [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Potassium Chloride Segment - The company targets a production of 1 million tons and sales of 900,000 tons of potassium chloride for 2025. In the first three quarters, it achieved a production of 701,600 tons and sales of 783,800 tons, with a tax-inclusive selling price of approximately 2,920 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.88% [2][3]. - The high prices of potassium fertilizers globally and domestic winter storage demand are significant contributors to this performance [2]. Lithium Carbonate Segment - In the lithium carbonate sector, the company produced 6,021 tons and sold 4,800 tons in the first three quarters, adjusting its annual production and sales target to 8,510 tons. The production target for 2026 is projected to be between 10,000 to 12,000 tons [2][3]. - The company maintains an optimistic outlook on lithium prices and focuses on cost optimization [2][3][11]. Copper Mining Investment - Cangge Mining holds a 30.78% stake in Jilong Copper Industry, which contributed significant profits, with an investment income of 1.95 billion RMB in the first three quarters, accounting for about 71% of the company's net profit. Jilong Copper's production target for the year is between 185,000 to 190,000 tons [2][5]. Project Developments - The Mami Cuo project is expected to commence production next year, with limited impact from winter construction. The estimated cost is around 30,000 RMB per ton [2][4][6]. - The company has a priority purchase right regarding its stake in Mami Cuo, contingent upon the completion of the first phase of the project [7]. - The Laos potassium salt mine project has an exploration reserve of 984 million tons, and the company is confident in its potential despite the Lao government's temporary suspension of mining in the Vientiane area [4][15][16]. Cost Management - The expected production cost for the Mami Cuo project is 30,000 RMB per ton, benefiting from superior resource endowment and ongoing technological optimizations since 2017 [12][13]. - The production cost for the Qinghai headquarters is projected to be around 40,000 RMB per ton, with a total cost of approximately 50,000 RMB [19]. Market Outlook - The company views the recent fluctuations in lithium prices positively, asserting that it has a cost advantage that allows for profit even during price declines. It plans to continue its projects without adjustments due to price changes [10][11]. - The demand for lithium in energy storage and power sectors is expected to grow, particularly driven by electricity shortages in Europe and the U.S. and advancements in AI [11]. Other Important Information - The company is focused on maintaining production efficiency and quality while pursuing new projects like the Mami Cuo and Laos potassium salt mine [3]. - The company has made significant progress in its key projects and is prepared to report on developments as they occur [4][15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in copper inventory in the U.S. and its implications for global copper supply, particularly targeting China's copper industry and technological advancements [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Supply Dynamics - In 2025, U.S. copper inventory surged by 470%, from 84,000 tons at the beginning of the year to 400,000 tons, while the U.S. only accounts for 6% of global copper consumption [1]. - Global copper mine grades have dropped by 40% over the past 40 years, and mining costs have risen significantly, leading to a projected global copper mine growth rate of only 3.4% in 2025, with a shortage expected in 2026 [3]. - The U.S. holds 62% of global exchange copper inventory, which has reduced liquidity in the international copper market [3]. Group 2: Strategic Implications for China - The U.S. strategy of stockpiling copper is seen as a direct attack on China's refined copper industry, which relies on imports for 94% of its copper concentrate [4]. - The price of copper on the London Metal Exchange has increased from $7,000 per ton in 2023 to $12,000 per ton in 2025, benefiting U.S. capital in the futures market [4]. - The copper shortage could hinder China's advancements in the renewable energy and AI sectors, as significant amounts of copper are required for infrastructure [4][6]. Group 3: Countermeasures and Industry Response - China is accelerating the production of new copper mining projects in Yunnan and Tibet and has doubled the output of recycled copper in three years [5]. - Long-term supply agreements with countries like Congo and Peru are being established by China to secure copper resources through a "resource for technology" model [5]. - The U.S. copper stockpile, sufficient to produce 20 million electric vehicles, is not aligned with its current production capacity, indicating a strategic move to limit China's growth [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Economic Impact - The rising copper prices are affecting various sectors, including appliances and construction, contributing to increased inflationary pressures in the U.S. [7]. - China's advanced refining technology and high recycling rates (98%) position it to mitigate raw material shortages effectively [7]. - The competition for copper resources highlights the importance of technological innovation and supply chain resilience in the current geopolitical landscape [8].