上周白银市场呈现全面走强态势。9月26日，国际白银价格强势上行，伦敦现货白银突破46美元/盎司， 盘中触及46.62美元/盎司，创下自2010年以来的14年新高。年内涨幅更是达到59.52%，远超纽约金 43.59%的涨幅。国内市场方面，白银期货同样表现亮眼。9月25日沪银收于10632元/千克，当日涨幅达 2.27%，创出该品种上市以来历史新高，成为本周国内贵金属市场的核心领涨品种。 从需求端看，工业应用的迅猛增长成为白银价格最核心的驱动力。全球能源转型持续加速，预计2025年 光伏新增装机量将突破600GW，直接推动光伏银浆的需求激增。与此同时，新能源汽车渗透率的提高 进一步扩大了白银的工业消费量。根据世界白银协会的数据，工业需求目前已占白银总需求的58%，其 中仅光伏一项就贡献了17%。 另一方面，金融属性和避险需求也令银价不断攀升。随着地缘政治局势持续紧张以及全球贸易不确定性 增加，市场避险情绪显著升温，资金大量流入贵金属市场。由于金价已处于历史高位，白银显示出明显 的比价优势。当前内外盘金银比分别处于82: 85的高位，远高于历史均值，白银估值仍相对较低。 消息面上，多重宏观与产业消息形成共振支撑。 ...

实物资产：脆弱的供给与恢复的需求 本周（2025 年 9 月 1 日至 2025 年 9 月 5 日，下同）大宗商品铜的供给端发生重大扰动，全球第二大铜矿印尼 Grasberg 铜矿遭遇不可抗力停产（2024 年铜矿产量越占全球的 3.5%），引发了铜价快速上涨。在关税政策驱动下美国锁定了大 量铜库存的背景下，总量上看似短期过剩的供需格局下结构上其实已经非常紧张，本次 Grasberg 铜矿停产可能导致 2025 年 Q4 及 2026 年供给侧进一步的收缩，这为将来制造业需求修复时的价格弹性埋下伏笔。从另一视角来看，当前 全球金属铜市场的震动同样也是贸易格局重塑与供给约束下全球实物资产供应链脆弱性的缩影，也是以大宗商品为代 表的实物资产中长期价值重估的来源。而短期需求侧，美国 2025 年 9 月标普全球 PMI、8 月地产销售、耐用品订单表 现均超预期，PCE 符合预期，这意味着对于资源品而言影响供需的数据都相对健康，约束"降息"的数据又都在放松。 当然也需要关注，受美国"抢出口"热度退坡影响，欧洲主要国家 9 月制造业 PMI 则出现边际下滑，未来财政政策的 具体落地路径是重要观测。值得一提的是，部分前 ...

投资圈每秒都在变。 从化工行业的"反内卷"曙光，到绿色电力的市场化改革红利，再到有色资源的价格飙升和红利投资的稳健回报，每一个细分领域背后都有故事。 在这个充满变数的投资环境中，究竟哪些行业能够在政策变革和市场洗牌中脱颖而出，成为真正的"赢家"？ 想要理解投资圈就要理解当前市场的信号，比如最近红利指数一直在跌。 而红利下跌跟 "长期存款利率" 有关！ 10年期国债利率，在9月25日已经涨到1.83%了，红利板块本来是替大家 "赚稳定收益" 的，利率一涨，它的吸引力就弱了点。 但游戏行业不一样，当天涨了4个多百分点，今年发的游戏版号比去年多了21%，玩游戏的人平均花的钱也涨了，行业不算"淡季"。 不过短期热点就像一阵风，真想赚稳钱还得看有政策、有供需撑着的行业，比如最近悄悄涨了10%的化工。 化工行业能赚钱其实早有苗头，8月买的人现在都赚了10% 以上。 当欧洲产能进一步出清时，全球化工产品价格有望上涨，而中国化工企业凭借全球最低的成本优势，将成为最大受益者。 化工板块估值与盈利均处于历史底部区间，部分子行业已长期处于亏损状态，这种"双底"格局为政策驱动带来的盈利弹性释放提供了充足空间。 现在化工企业不盲目扩产 ...

本周核心关注二：铜冶炼"反内卷"也有望提速 行业周报 | 有色金属 供给扰动频发，金属板块有望实现多重共振 有色金属行业周报（2025.09.22-2025.09.28） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：全球第二大铜矿 Grasberg 遭遇矿难停产，供给担忧加剧 全球第二大铜矿 Grasberg 矿山发生泥石流事故，引发供应链担忧，目前公 司已启动不可抗力条款。受事故影响，Freeport 将第三季度合并销售预期较 7 月份预估下调约 4%的铜产量和约 6%的黄金产量。同时预计 25Q4 铜和黄 金的销售额将微不足道。另外 Freeport 预计最早要到 2027 年才能恢复事故 前的生产水平，2026 年铜金产量较此前预期下降约 35%，其中铜产量指引 从 77 万吨下调至约 50 万吨，减少约 27 万吨供应。 9 月 24 日，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议在河 北雄安新区召开。铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争导致铜精矿加工费持续低位的 问题是此次会议中代表反馈最集中的问题，也是行业当下最突出的问题。中 国有色金属工业协会党委常委、副会长陈学森在总结讲话中强调，铜冶炼行 业"内卷式"竞争对行业影 ...

当地时间9月25日，特朗普宣布自10月1日起，对所有进口重型卡车加征25%关税，对有品牌或专利的药 品征收100%关税，对厨房橱柜、浴室柜及相关产品征收50%关税，对软体家具征收30%关税。这一举措 引发市场关注，可能推高成本、扰乱供应链，还会加剧美国物价上涨压力、拖累经济增长。详情>> 美联储官员对降息表态不一，市场预期受影响 美东时间9月25日，美联储官员密集表态。理事米兰主张"短期、大幅"降息，认为当前利率限制性过 强，应下调150 - 200个基点；芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比则对提前大幅降息持谨慎态度，担忧通胀持续上 升。美国二季度GDP和核心PCE物价指数终值高于预期，也给美联储降息前景增添不确定性。详情>> 来源：喜娜AI 金融市场犹如变幻莫测的海洋，时刻涌动着投资与经济政策的波澜，深刻影响着全球经济的走向。在 此，喜娜AI为您呈上今日财经热点新闻，全方位覆盖股市动态、经济数据、企业财务状况以及政策更 新等关键领域，助您精准洞察金融世界的风云变幻，把握市场脉搏。 加密货币市场全线暴跌，超25万人爆仓 9月25日，以太坊价格大跳水，一度跌破4000美元，日内暴跌6.25%，创七周新低；比特币等主流加密 ...

Group 1 - Contemporary market dynamics show larger companies, like CATL, outperforming smaller stocks, indicating a potential market distortion [1] - CATL's market capitalization reached 1.8 trillion, with a weight of 17.7% in the ChiNext Index, significantly influencing its performance [1][2] - The performance of small-cap stocks is lagging, as evidenced by the 0.21% decline in the CSI 2000 index over the past 20 days [1] Group 2 - The rapid growth of domestic ETF assets is notable, with the scale surpassing 1 trillion in October 2020, 2 trillion in August 2023, and projected to reach 3 trillion by September 2024 [4] - The trend indicates that investors should prioritize index-weighted stocks over non-component stocks when conditions are similar [4] - A significant copper mine accident is expected to reduce copper production by 35% in 2026, impacting global copper stocks positively [5] Group 3 - The domestic automotive industry is expanding internationally, indicating broader market opportunities [6] - Companies like JD.com and Xiaomi are heavily investing in AI and chip development, with Xiaomi committing at least 500 billion over the next decade for self-developed chips [7][10] - The market shows a strong interest in AI narratives, as seen with Alibaba's stock surge following an AI-focused meeting announcement [9]

港股晨报 1. 国证视点：突发停产影响铜板块活跃，美国经济数据喜 忧参半 周四，港股三大指数涨跌不一，恒生指数跌 0.13%，国企指数涨 0.01%，恒生 科技指数涨 0.89%。大市成交金额 3148.90 亿元，主板总卖空金额 451.61 亿 元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率为 16.05%。南向资金流（北水）微跌。港股通 净流入金额为 110.46 亿港元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的 是阿里巴巴 9988.HK、腾讯控股 700.HK、中芯国际 981.HK；净卖出最多的是小 米集团 1810.HK、晶泰控股 2228.HK、光大控股 165.HK。北向资金方面，9 月 25 日北向资金共成交 2984.25 亿元，占两市总成交额的 12.59%。工业富联 601138.SH、海光信息 688041.SH、寒武纪 688256.SH 位列沪股通成交前三，成 交额分别为 29.33 亿、24.07 亿、20.08 亿；立讯精密 002475.SZ、宁德时代 300750.SZ、中际旭创 300308.SZ 位列深股通成交前三，成交额分别为 52.65 亿、45.36 亿、38.09 亿。 ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth in China's copper ore and concentrate imports, with a significant increase in both quantity and value in July 2025 compared to the previous year [1]. Import Data Summary - In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.5% [1]. - The import value for the same period reached $6.927 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 33.1% [1]. Company Profile - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services, including feasibility studies and customized reports [1].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 金融衍生品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 9 月 26 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the convertible bond market shows wide - volatility characteristics, and attention should be paid to band and structural selection [27]. - Active funds reduce positions, while passive funds increase allocations. The delisting of Pufa Convertible Bonds in October may bring re - allocation demand [27]. - In Q4, the equity market tends to have a structural market. Equity - biased convertible bonds still have obvious elasticity advantages, and capital outflows bring more profit space for low - price convertible bonds [27]. - A portfolio of ten convertible bonds is recommended to select high - quality targets, focusing on elasticity, and the portfolio is adjusted monthly [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, up from 50.1% [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively. The new RMB loans of financial institutions in that month were 590 billion yuan [1]. - In August 2025, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year [1]. - In August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 0.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.64% [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import values were 4.4% and 1.3% respectively [1]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The Ministry of Commerce called on the US to cancel unreasonable tariffs on China and emphasized that the biggest obstacle to Sino - US economic and trade cooperation is US unilateral restrictions [2]. - Xiaomi launched the Xiaomi 17 series, Xiaomi Pad 8 series, and many other tech home appliances. Xiaomi's founder, CEO Lei Jun, said that self - developed mobile phone SoCs should be persisted for at least 10 years with an investment of at least 50 billion yuan [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5% [2]. Metals - On September 25, international precious metal futures generally rose. Fed officials sent mixed policy signals, reflecting the Fed's dilemma in balancing inflation and employment goals [3]. - On September 25, the closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract 2511 was 82,710 yuan/ton, up 3.4%. The suspension of production at the Grasberg mine may exacerbate the global copper supply shortage [3][4]. - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity. High - end analysts predicted a 500,000 - ton copper supply loss in the next 12 - 15 months [4]. - Congo (Kinshasa) extended the cobalt export ban until October 15 and implemented an export quota system. Cobalt prices have risen nearly 40% this year [4]. - Citi raised its copper price forecast. It is expected that the medium - term copper price will rise to $12,000 per ton in the next 6 - 12 months [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In August 2025, global crude steel production increased by 0.3% year - on - year to 145.3 million tons, while China's crude steel production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year to 77.4 million tons [6]. - As of mid - September, the price of coke (quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke) decreased by 4.69% month - on - month, and the price of rebar (HRB400E Φ20mm) increased by 0.29% month - on - month [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - On September 25, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly. The resumption of crude oil exports in the Kurdish region eased supply concerns, but the unexpected decrease in US crude oil inventories offset some negative impacts [8]. - Daqing Gulong Continental Shale Oil National Demonstration Area added 158 million tons of proven shale oil reserves [8]. - Russia plans to implement a diesel export ban on resellers until the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban on resellers and producers [8]. Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs called for stabilizing the supply of "vegetable basket" products and promoting the application of high - performance agricultural machinery [9]. - In 2024, China's organic product sales reached 124.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 22.79%, making China the world's third - largest organic consumer market [9]. - China launched an anti - dumping investigation into imported pecans from Mexico and the US starting from September 25 [10]. - The EU Commission adjusted its forecasts for wheat and corn production and exports in the 2025/26 season [10]. - Argentina resumed taxing the export of grains and their by - products after agricultural product sales reached $7 billion [10]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On September 25, the central bank conducted 483.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3.5 billion yuan on the same day [11]. - On September 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, and has increased the volume of MLF for 7 consecutive months [11]. Important News and Information - China submitted a position paper on the issue of special and differential treatment to the WTO, not seeking new special and differential treatment in current and future negotiations [12][13]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to issues related to Sino - US soybean trade and Boeing aircraft purchase negotiations, emphasizing that US unilateral restrictions are the main obstacle to normal economic and trade cooperation [2][13]. - The Ministry of Commerce launched a trade and investment barrier investigation into Mexico's measures to raise import tariffs on Chinese products [14]. - Three US companies were included in the unreliable entity list for their military - related cooperation with Taiwan [15]. - The China Foreign Exchange Trade System will optimize the "Swap Connect" operation mechanism and increase the daily net limit to 450 billion yuan from October 13 [15]. - The central bank deputy governor proposed to expand the application scenarios of the Hong Kong RMB bond market [16]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority jointly released a development roadmap for the fixed - income and money market [16]. - The scale of China's public funds exceeded 36 trillion yuan for the first time at the end of August [17]. - Internet giants such as Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba are accelerating their layout in the dim - sum bond market [17]. - The Digital RMB International Operation Center was officially launched on September 24, with three business platforms launched [18]. - The Bank of China Research Institute predicted that more banks may cut deposit rates in Q4, and the RMB exchange rate will remain stable and may appreciate [18]. Bond Market Summary - MLF incremental roll - over had little positive impact on the bond market. Spot bonds and futures were generally weak [21]. - In the exchange bond market, Vanke bonds generally rose, while some other bonds fell [21]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.46%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.33% [22]. - On September 25, most money market interest rates rose [22]. - Shibor short - term varieties showed differentiation [23]. - The winning yields of some financial bonds issued by policy - based banks were announced [23][24]. - Inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds and silver - silver inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds generally rose [24]. - European and US bond yields generally rose, with some exceptions [24][25]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1253, down 34 basis points from the previous trading day [26]. - The US dollar index rose 0.60%, and most non - US currencies fell [26]. Stock Market Important News - The A - share market showed a differentiated trend, with the ChiNext Index hitting a new stage high for two consecutive days. AI concept stocks rebounded [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.13%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.89%. Geely Auto rose nearly 4% on its first trading day [29]. - The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges announced the holiday schedule for the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival [29]. Today's Reminders - On September 26, 247 bonds will be listed, 88 bonds will be issued, 139 bonds will make payments, and 344 bonds will repay principal and interest [28].