Key Points - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that gold prices remain within a fluctuating range while silver prices have seen further increases [2][3] - The report highlights the impact of rumors regarding reduced tariffs between the US and EU, which has led to decreased safe-haven demand for precious metals [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts within the year, with a 61.9% probability for a cut in September [2] Precious Metals - Gold price for the week was $3343.50 per ounce, down $11.60 from July 18, reflecting a decrease of 0.35% [2] - Silver price for the week was $38.74 per ounce, up $0.46 from July 18, reflecting an increase of 1.22% [2] - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.5, below expectations of 52.7 [2] - US durable goods orders for June showed a preliminary value of -9.3%, better than the expected -10.7% [2] Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $9839 per ton, up $119 from July 18, an increase of 1.22% [5] - SHFE copper closed at 79170 yuan per ton, up 760 yuan from July 18, an increase of 0.97% [5] - Domestic aluminum price was 20800 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from July 18 [6] - LME aluminum inventory was 450825 tons, up 20125 tons from July 18 [6] Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price was 271360 yuan per ton, up 5460 yuan from July 18, an increase of 2.05% [8] - Antimony ingot price remained stable at 184500 yuan per ton, with weak demand affecting transactions [10] Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The gold industry is rated "recommended" due to the ongoing rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [11] - The copper industry is also rated "recommended" despite short-term demand weakness, with expectations of tightening supply-demand dynamics in the medium to long term [12] - The aluminum industry maintains a "recommended" rating, anticipating similar supply-demand conditions [13] - The tin industry is rated "recommended" due to supply tightness potentially supporting prices [13] - The antimony industry is rated "recommended" with expectations of long-term supply tightness supporting prices [13] Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Shanjin International [14] - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, HeSteel Resources, and Cangge Mining [14] - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [14] - Antimony industry recommendations include Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous [14] - Tin industry recommendations include Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xingye Silver Tin [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [14][15]. Core Insights - The gold market is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts [14]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum is weak, but medium to long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to tighten [14]. - Tin prices are supported by tight supply, while antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term but are supported by long-term supply constraints [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a weekly increase of 1.32%, ranking in the middle among all Shenwan first-level industries [24]. - The top three performing sub-sectors were lithium (+6.19%), silver (+5.44%), and tungsten (+5.23%) [24]. 2. Precious Metals Market Data - London gold price was $3355.10 per ounce, with a slight increase of $3.00 per ounce (0.09%) [34]. - London silver price reached $38.27 per ounce, up by $0.77 per ounce (2.05%) [34]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased to 30.34 million ounces, down by 130,000 ounces [34]. 3. Industrial Metals Data - LME copper closed at $9720 per ton, up by $80 per ton (0.83%) [40]. - SHFE copper closed at 78,410 yuan per ton, down by 160 yuan per ton (-0.20%) [40]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 143,300 tons, down by 0.04 tons from the previous week [40]. 4. Key Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [16]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [16]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [14][15]. Core Views - The report indicates that the gold market will continue to rise due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts [14]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but the long-term supply-demand balance is expected to tighten [15]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate due to a tight supply situation, while antimony prices are projected to remain weak in the short term but supported by long-term supply constraints [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a weekly increase of 3.75%, outperforming other sectors [23]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included rare earths (+18.65%), magnetic materials (+11.28%), and silver (+8.35%) [23]. 2. Precious Metals - London gold price was $3352.10 per ounce, up $20.20 from July 4, with a 0.61% increase [34]. - London silver price reached $37.5 per ounce, increasing by 0.62% from July 4 [34]. - The report notes that the Federal Reserve's differing views on inflation may impact precious metals, but a bullish trend is anticipated [6][34]. 3. Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $9640 per ton, down $240 from July 4, a decrease of 2.43% [41]. - Domestic aluminum price was 20760 RMB per ton, with a slight increase of 0.05% [42]. - The report highlights that short-term copper and aluminum prices may face downward pressure due to weak demand [15][41]. 4. Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price was 266820 RMB per ton, down 0.37% from July 4 [43]. - Antimony price was 185500 RMB per ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.80% [15][43]. - The report suggests that while demand is weak, supply constraints may support tin prices in the future [15]. 5. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold, and in the copper sector, including Zijin Mining and Western Mining [15][17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the rare earth market is experiencing improved supply and demand dynamics, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, driven by frequent bidding from magnet manufacturers and concerns over supply reductions [4] - Precious metals are supported by shifting interest rate expectations and strong U.S. non-farm payroll data, enhancing the attractiveness of gold as an investment [5] - Copper prices are fluctuating at high levels, influenced by tariff expectations and macroeconomic factors, with a potential support level identified at approximately 9,350 USD per ton [5] - Aluminum prices are expected to trend upward due to easing trade tensions and a decrease in overall inventory levels [6] - Antimony prices are stabilizing around 190,000 CNY per ton, with a potential for a stocking-up trend as supply tightens [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 5,199.61, with a weekly high of 5,230.85 and a low of 3,700.90 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals: LME copper decreased by 0.02%, aluminum increased by 0.97%, zinc increased by 0.70%, lead decreased by 1.32%, and tin increased by 0.74% [18] - Precious metals: COMEX gold increased by 1.79%, silver increased by 5.82%, NYMEX palladium increased by 14.68%, and platinum decreased by 7.32% [18] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes: copper increased by 22,839 tons, aluminum increased by 20,687 tons, zinc decreased by 2,326 tons, lead decreased by 3,512 tons, tin decreased by 126 tons, and nickel increased by 3,167 tons [26]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the copper and aluminum industries, with copper showing a stable upward trend and aluminum stabilizing at the bottom [14][15][16]. Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing a slight price decline, with LME copper down 1.92% to $9,663.00 per ton, while domestic copper inventory has increased slightly [15]. - The aluminum market shows a minor price increase, with LME aluminum up 0.17% to $2,602.00 per ton, and a decrease in domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory [16]. - Gold prices have increased by 0.71% to $3,370.30 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [17]. - The rare earth sector is expected to see price increases due to tightening supply and rising demand, with strategic government actions enhancing the sector's outlook [39]. - The antimony market is stabilizing, with expectations of price recovery supported by reduced domestic production and increased demand from new regulations [40]. - Molybdenum prices are rising, supported by low inventory levels and strong demand from the steel industry [41]. - Lithium prices have shown a mixed trend, with carbonate prices increasing while hydroxide prices have slightly decreased [44]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper shows a robust upward trend, while aluminum is stabilizing at lower levels. Precious metals are accelerating due to fiscal expansion policies [14]. 2. Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals Update 2.1 Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.92% to $9,663.00 per ton, with slight increases in domestic inventory and production rates expected to rise [15]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum price increased by 0.17% to $2,602.00 per ton, with a decrease in domestic inventory [16]. 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 0.71% to $3,370.30 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions [17]. 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints and increasing demand, with government actions enhancing market conditions [39]. 4. Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Update 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for rare earth elements are expected to rise due to tightening supply and strategic government actions [39]. 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices are stabilizing, with expectations of recovery supported by reduced production and new regulations [40]. 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are increasing due to low inventory levels and strong demand from the steel industry [41]. 4.4 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 2.43% to 63,200 CNY per ton, while hydroxide prices decreased slightly [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [12]. Core Views - The gold market is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cut cycle [12]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight [12]. - Tin prices are supported by tight supply, while antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term but are supported by long-term supply constraints [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a 6.3% increase over one month, 8.6% over three months, and 16.7% over twelve months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3][21]. Gold Market - The average gold price in London was $3,331.90 per ounce, up 1.83% from the previous week [32]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 230,000 ounces to 30.47 million ounces [33]. Copper Market - LME copper closed at $9,880 per ton, a 0.25% increase from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 79,990 yuan per ton, a 0.11% decrease [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 131,800 tons, a 0.17% increase from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum price was 20,750 yuan per ton, down 0.91% from the previous week [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin Market - Domestic refined tin price was 267,820 yuan per ton, down 0.88% from the previous week [43]. - LME tin inventory decreased by 65 tons to 2,110 tons [43]. Antimony Market - Domestic antimony ingot price was 185,500 yuan per ton, down 2.11% from the previous week [43]. Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [12]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [12]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [12]. - Tin industry recommendations include Xiyang Silver Tin and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

Group 1 - The current spot gold price has dropped below $3320.00 per ounce, with a daily decline of 1.18%, while COMEX gold futures are reported at $3333.3 per ounce, down nearly 0.80% [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have surged, with short-term bonds leading the decline; the 2-year and 5-year yields have increased by nearly 10 basis points, and the 10-year yield has jumped by 5.5 basis points [3][4] - The ADP employment report for June unexpectedly showed a decrease of 33,000 jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, contrary to the expected increase of 98,000 jobs [6] Group 2 - The likelihood of a rate cut in July is nearly zero, with the Federal Reserve expected to pause its actions during the summer; employment data is crucial for policy adjustments [6][7] - Global geopolitical conflicts and the trend of de-dollarization are prompting central banks to increase gold holdings, with gold ETFs expected to continue purchasing gold [7] - The rare metals supply advantage in China's manufacturing, particularly in military-related sectors, is expected to benefit leading companies in rare earth metals, as supply-demand tensions increase [7] - The precious metals market is anticipated to benefit from the weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices expected to rise [8]

从美联储最新点阵图来看，预计2025年利率中枢为3.75-4.00%，较当前利率水平低50BP，因此年内美联 储还有降息可能。仍然看好金价在降息周期的表现。 ▌铜、铝：下游需求走弱，供应偏紧，铜铝仍以震荡走势为主 国内宏观：中国5月CPI同比今值-0.1%，前值-0.1%。中国5月PPI同比今值-3.3%，前值-2.7%。中国5月 进口同比(按美元计)今值-3.4%，前值-0.2%。中国5月出口同比(按美元计)今值4.8%，前值8.1%。中国广 义货币(M2)余额325.78万亿元，同比增长7.9%。狭义货币(M1)余额108.91万亿元，同比增长2.3%。流通 中货币(M0)余额13.13万亿元，同比增长12.1%。2025年前五个月人民币贷款增加10.68万亿元。2025年 前五个月社会融资规模增量累计为18.63万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。 铜：价格方面，本周LME铜收盘价9652美元/吨，环比6月13日+79美元/吨，涨幅0.82%。SHFE铜收盘价 77990元/吨，环比6月13日-360元/吨，跌幅0.46%。库存方面，LME库存为99200吨（环比6月13日-15275 吨，同比-627 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [12][14]. Core Insights - Geopolitical military conflicts have led to increased capital inflow into precious metals, driving strong upward momentum in prices [6]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to continue its interest rate cuts, which supports the bullish trend in gold prices [12]. - Domestic demand for copper and aluminum is expected to weaken in the short term, but long-term supply-demand dynamics remain tight, supporting prices [12]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions and continued purchases by the People's Bank of China, which increased its gold reserves by 60,000 ounces in May [6][12]. - The report notes that after a period of consolidation, gold prices are likely to enter a new upward phase [6]. Copper and Aluminum - Domestic macroeconomic indicators show a slight decline in demand, with China's May CPI at -0.1% and PPI at -3.3% [7][29]. - Despite weak downstream demand, low domestic inventory levels are expected to support copper and aluminum prices, which are projected to experience wide fluctuations [11][12]. Tin and Antimony - Tin prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints and declining inventories, with domestic refined tin prices at 265,680 RMB/ton [12]. - Antimony prices are under pressure due to weak demand, but long-term supply constraints are expected to support prices [12]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks within each sector, including Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Gold for gold, and various companies for copper and aluminum [14][16].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a stable upward trend with expectations of tightening supply in the second half of the year [14] - The aluminum market is stabilizing at the bottom, with better-than-expected production in photovoltaic aluminum profiles [14] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are gaining attractiveness due to heightened geopolitical tensions [14] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices decreased by 0.24% to $9647.50 per ton on LME, while Shanghai copper fell by 1.17% to 78,000 yuan per ton [15] - Aluminum prices increased by 2.10% to $2503.00 per ton on LME, and Shanghai aluminum rose by 1.84% to 20,000 yuan per ton [3] - Gold prices rose by 3.16% to $3452.60 per ounce, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid international tensions [17] 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The import copper concentrate processing fee index dropped to -$44.75 per ton [15] - National copper inventory decreased by 0.47 thousand tons to 14.48 thousand tons [15] - Expected increase in operating rates for copper enterprises in China by 1.57 percentage points to 54.56% by June 2025 [15] 2.2 Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 17,000 tons to 460,000 tons [3] - The operating rate of aluminum processing leaders fell by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% [3] 2.3 Precious Metals - SPDR gold holdings increased by 4.27 tons to 940.49 tons [17] - Geopolitical events, including the escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, have increased gold's short-term safe-haven appeal [17] 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth sector is experiencing upward momentum, with export controls likely to drive prices higher [35] - Antimony prices are expected to rebound due to new certification standards for flame-retardant cables [39] - Molybdenum prices remain stable, with a positive outlook due to increased demand in the steel industry [40] 4. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for dysprosium and terbium remained stable at $800 and $3500 per ton, respectively [36] - The Chinese government is facilitating compliant trade for heavy rare earth products [36] 4.2 Antimony - Antimony ingot prices fell to 189,500 yuan per ton, reflecting weak export demand [39] - The upcoming implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant cables may boost demand for antimony [39] 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices remained stable at 3840 yuan per ton [40] - Steel procurement volumes have increased by 8% year-on-year, supporting molybdenum demand [40] 5. Overview of Energy Metals Market - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.4% to 60,400 yuan per ton, while hydroxide prices decreased by 2.18% to 66,000 yuan per ton [6] - Cobalt prices remained stable, while nickel prices decreased by 2.5% to $15,100 per ton [6]