Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a stable upward trend with expectations of tightening supply in the second half of the year [14] - The aluminum market is stabilizing at the bottom, with better-than-expected production in photovoltaic aluminum profiles [14] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are gaining attractiveness due to heightened geopolitical tensions [14] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices decreased by 0.24% to $9647.50 per ton on LME, while Shanghai copper fell by 1.17% to 78,000 yuan per ton [15] - Aluminum prices increased by 2.10% to $2503.00 per ton on LME, and Shanghai aluminum rose by 1.84% to 20,000 yuan per ton [3] - Gold prices rose by 3.16% to $3452.60 per ounce, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid international tensions [17] 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The import copper concentrate processing fee index dropped to -$44.75 per ton [15] - National copper inventory decreased by 0.47 thousand tons to 14.48 thousand tons [15] - Expected increase in operating rates for copper enterprises in China by 1.57 percentage points to 54.56% by June 2025 [15] 2.2 Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 17,000 tons to 460,000 tons [3] - The operating rate of aluminum processing leaders fell by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% [3] 2.3 Precious Metals - SPDR gold holdings increased by 4.27 tons to 940.49 tons [17] - Geopolitical events, including the escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, have increased gold's short-term safe-haven appeal [17] 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth sector is experiencing upward momentum, with export controls likely to drive prices higher [35] - Antimony prices are expected to rebound due to new certification standards for flame-retardant cables [39] - Molybdenum prices remain stable, with a positive outlook due to increased demand in the steel industry [40] 4. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for dysprosium and terbium remained stable at $800 and $3500 per ton, respectively [36] - The Chinese government is facilitating compliant trade for heavy rare earth products [36] 4.2 Antimony - Antimony ingot prices fell to 189,500 yuan per ton, reflecting weak export demand [39] - The upcoming implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant cables may boost demand for antimony [39] 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices remained stable at 3840 yuan per ton [40] - Steel procurement volumes have increased by 8% year-on-year, supporting molybdenum demand [40] 5. Overview of Energy Metals Market - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.4% to 60,400 yuan per ton, while hydroxide prices decreased by 2.18% to 66,000 yuan per ton [6] - Cobalt prices remained stable, while nickel prices decreased by 2.5% to $15,100 per ton [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant role of China in the global rare earth market, with a projected production share of 69.23% in 2024, indicating strong market influence and potential for growth in demand due to advancements in sectors like electric vehicles and wind power [1]. Group 1: Rare Earth and Metal Production - The rare earth sector saw a notable increase of 3.52%, attracting market attention [1]. - According to USGS, China's rare earth production is expected to dominate the global market, reinforcing its strategic importance [1]. - Citic Securities anticipates sustained growth in demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials, benefiting the sector amid strict national resource controls, which may stabilize prices and enhance profitability for companies in this space [1]. Group 2: Other Metals and China's Position - China also leads in the production of tungsten, vanadium, cobalt, and antimony, with production shares exceeding 50%, particularly tungsten at 82.72%, showcasing significant industry chain advantages [1]. - In basic metals, China is the largest producer of electrolytic aluminum, with a projected 2024 production share of 59.72%, and also holds over 30% shares in lead and zinc production [1]. - However, China faces challenges in copper production, with a 2024 output of 1.8 million tons, accounting for only 7.83% of global production, due to issues like small scale, low grade, and high extraction costs [1].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows signs of upward momentum with a decrease in copper inventory and an increase in production rates, indicating a tightening supply situation [12][13] - The aluminum sector faces slight pressure due to the end of demand from the photovoltaic sector, with expectations of a demand test in June [12][14] - The gold market is experiencing reduced short-term safe-haven appeal due to easing inflation and fluctuating U.S. tariff policies [12][15] - The rare earth sector is expected to see a simultaneous increase in both domestic and international prices due to export controls and supply disruptions [12][36] - The antimony market is projected to recover due to resource scarcity and reduced global supply, despite recent price corrections [12][37] - Molybdenum prices are on the rise, supported by strong demand in the steel industry and low inventory levels [12][38] - Tin prices are experiencing a decline due to supply recovery expectations, but long-term demand remains positive [12][39] - Tungsten prices are increasing due to tightened supply expectations from domestic mining regulations [12][40] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper shows a positive turning point with expected supply tightening in June [12] - Aluminum faces demand pressure as the photovoltaic installation rush ends [12] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to see price increases driven by supply constraints and central bank purchases [12] 2. Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals Update 2.1 Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.22% to $9,497.00 per ton, with domestic inventory continuing to decline [13] - The smelting sector shows increased production rates, indicating a robust supply chain [13] 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 0.71% to $2,448.50 per ton, with inventory levels dropping [14] - The operational rate of aluminum processing remains stable, providing some support for future demand [14] 2.3 Precious Metals - COMEX gold price decreased by 1.33% to $3,313.10 per ounce, influenced by U.S. inflation trends [15] - SPDR gold holdings increased, indicating ongoing interest despite short-term price fluctuations [15] 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth sector is experiencing a robust upward trend due to supply constraints and regulatory changes [12][36] - Antimony prices are expected to recover as global supply tightens [12][37] 4. Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Update 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for various rare earth elements are increasing, driven by export controls and supply disruptions [36] 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices are projected to recover due to resource scarcity and reduced global supply [37] 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are rising, supported by strong demand in the steel industry and low inventory levels [38] 4.4 Tin - Tin prices are declining due to supply recovery expectations, but long-term demand remains positive [39] 4.5 Tungsten - Tungsten prices are increasing due to tightened supply expectations from domestic mining regulations [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent announcement by Trump to impose tariffs on the EU has increased global economic uncertainty, which supports a bullish trend in gold prices. Central banks continue to purchase gold, indicating a sustained long-term bullish outlook [3]. - For copper and aluminum, while there is a short-term weakness in downstream operations, the long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, justifying a "Recommended" rating for both industries [11]. - Tin prices are expected to stabilize at a high level, with corporate profits projected to gradually increase, leading to a "Recommended" rating for the tin industry [11]. - Antimony prices are currently weak due to short-term demand decline, but long-term supply constraints are expected to support prices, hence a "Recommended" rating is maintained [11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) showed a monthly performance increase of 3.1%, a quarterly increase of 4.3%, and a yearly increase of 3.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1]. Macroeconomic Indicators - China's real estate development investment from January to April decreased by 10.3%, while the industrial added value in April grew by 6.1%, exceeding expectations [4][28]. - The U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 52.3, significantly above the expected 49.9 [3][28]. Gold Market Data - The London gold price increased to $3342.65 per ounce, a rise of 3.48% from the previous week [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose to 29.66 million ounces, an increase of 120,000 ounces [32]. Copper Market Data - LME copper closed at $9565 per ton, up by $52 from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 77,790 yuan per ton, down by 880 yuan [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 139,900 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market Data - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices rose to 20,400 yuan per ton, an increase of 170 yuan [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 56.0%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin and Antimony Market Data - Domestic refined tin prices were reported at 265,070 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 370 yuan [43]. - Antimony ingot prices were reported at 220,500 yuan per ton, down by 2,000 yuan [43].

Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide investment ratings for the industry sectors discussed. Core Insights - The industrial metals sector is experiencing an upward turning point in market conditions, particularly for copper and aluminum, driven by easing trade tensions between the US and China [13]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are facing downward pressure due to a stronger US dollar and reduced appeal as a safe-haven asset amid improving trade relations [15]. - The rare earth sector is witnessing a simultaneous increase in both domestic and international prices, driven by export controls and a recovering market sentiment [32]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices increased slightly, with LME copper at $9,440.00 per ton and Shanghai copper at ¥78,100 per ton. A notable rise in copper inventory was observed, ending a ten-week decline, attributed to weakened downstream demand [13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 2.75% to $2,484.50 per ton, with domestic inventories remaining low despite a slight decrease in stock levels [14]. - Gold prices fell by 1.13% to $3,205.30 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and easing trade tensions between the US and China [15]. 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The report highlights a significant increase in copper inventory, reaching 132,000 tons, marking a shift in market dynamics due to reduced demand [13]. - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate has dropped to -$43.05 per ton, indicating pressure on the supply side [13]. 2.2 Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 581,000 tons, remaining at a near three-year low, while the cost of prebaked anodes increased slightly [14]. - The report notes that the Guinean government has revoked mining licenses for over 40 companies, impacting aluminum ore production capacity [14]. 2.3 Precious Metals - The report discusses the impact of US-China trade negotiations on gold prices, with a significant reduction in SPDR gold holdings [15]. - Economic indicators such as the US CPI and PPI suggest a cooling inflation environment, which may influence future monetary policy [15]. 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth market is experiencing price increases, particularly for dysprosium and terbium, driven by export controls and a recovering market sentiment [32]. - The antimony market is expected to see price recovery due to supply disruptions from Myanmar and ongoing anti-smuggling efforts in China [33]. - Tin prices have risen, supported by positive expectations from US-China trade negotiations, despite some production concerns [35]. 4. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for rare earth elements are showing upward trends, with significant increases in overseas prices following export control measures [32]. - The report anticipates a continued tightening of supply due to regulatory changes and geopolitical factors affecting production [32]. 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices are expected to recover as supply constraints from Myanmar persist, alongside increased demand from various sectors [33]. 4.3 Tin - Tin prices are supported by a favorable market outlook, driven by demand recovery in sectors such as semiconductors and photovoltaics [35].

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its fluctuations in the medium term, with accelerated style rotation, supported by monetary policy easing and strong export performance [1] - China's export focus has successfully shifted towards ASEAN and EU markets, leading to stable export growth despite basic economic downward expectations [1] - The market may experience a rotation pattern of "risk aversion - consumption - growth" in May [1] Group 2 - A-share market is experiencing accelerated rotation, with a rebound in financing activity and a shift towards small and mid-cap growth stocks [2] - The combination of policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations supports risk appetite, while structural market conditions are expected to prevail [2] - Key internal certainty clues include potential benefits for large-cap stocks and public utilities from new public fund regulations, and opportunities in sectors like military electronics and renewable energy equipment [2] Group 3 - Strategic metals are likely to undergo a value reassessment due to increased export control measures and the importance of these resources in the current international political context [3] - The crackdown on smuggling and export of strategic minerals is deemed urgent and significant for national security and development interests [3] - Prices of strategic metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony are expected to rise, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the strategic metals sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [9]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for copper and aluminum prices due to improving downstream demand and inventory depletion [5][7]. - Gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend supported by the ongoing interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [9]. - The tin market is anticipated to experience weak price movements due to a lack of short-term catalysts [9]. - Antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, but long-term supply-demand dynamics may support prices [9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector showed a weekly increase of 2.04%, outperforming other sectors [19]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included tungsten (+4.50%), nickel (+3.79%), and aluminum (+3.78%) [19]. Copper Market - LME copper closed at $9,415 per ton, up $283 per ton (3.10%) from April 17 [5]. - SHFE copper closed at ¥77,650 per ton, up ¥1,780 per ton (2.34%) from April 17 [5]. - Domestic copper social inventory decreased significantly, indicating strong demand [6]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices reached ¥20,100 per ton, an increase of ¥210 per ton (1.06%) [7]. - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 12,575 tons, while domestic SHFE inventory also saw a decline [7]. - The operating rate for leading aluminum profile enterprises increased to 59.5% [8]. Tin Market - Domestic refined tin prices rose to ¥263,180 per ton, up ¥6,800 per ton (2.65%) [9]. - The market is expected to remain weak due to insufficient demand catalysts [9]. Antimony Market - Domestic antimony ingot prices fell to ¥235,500 per ton, down ¥8,000 per ton [9]. - The market activity is low, with cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [9]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, including Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and Huaxi Youshi [10][12][13].

2025 年 04 月 28 日 下游开工向好以及库存去化，铜铝价格维持较强 走势 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属(申万) | -4.8 | 2.9 | -1.6 | | 沪深 300 | -3.3 | -0.8 | 5.7 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：关税影响 美国经济滞涨风险增大，金价支撑 仍然强劲》2025-04-21 2、《有色金属行业周报：美国通胀 持续走弱，降息预期提升支撑金 价》2025-04-14 3、《有色金属行业周报：电解铝库 存去化叠加下游需求向好，铝价偏 强看待》2025-03-31 美联储票委古尔斯比本周发言对美国经济和未来利率水平做 了点评。古尔斯比表示，短期通胀预期上升，但长期预期未 ...

金：本周COMEX金价-3.05%至3300.20美元/盎司，美债10年期TIPS下降18BP至2.02%。 SPDR黄金持仓减少12.90吨至946.27吨。本周黄金价格再创历史新高，突破3400美元/盎司关 口，主要受经济不确定性、地缘政治紧张和贸易担忧等因素推动。（1）标普全球数据显 示，美国4月Markit制造业PMI初值意外升至50.7，好于预期的49，但服务业和综合PMI初值 均低于预期，分别为51.4和51.2，且综合PMI初值创下16个月新低，不过三者均仍处于扩张 区间。（2）美联储理事沃勒表示，若特朗普政府恢复高额关税，美国企业可能大规模裁 员，届时他将支持美联储降息。 稀土：本周稀土价格整体下行，系贸易战带来较弱需求预期；但重稀土价格相对轻稀土 稳健，系出口管制带来的价格支撑。据SMM，拥有美国唯一稀土矿的MP Materials公司已停 止向中国出口稀土精矿，考虑海外镨钕冶炼分离产能情况，全球镨钕供应有望进一步收缩， 进而支撑镨钕价格。关注中国稀土、北方稀土、包钢股份、金力永磁等标的。 开源证券近日发布有色金属周报：本周稀土价格整体下行，系贸易战带来较弱需求预 期；但重稀土价格相对轻稀土 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold industry, copper industry, aluminum industry, tin industry, and antimony industry [10][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing due to tariffs, while gold prices remain strongly supported [4]. - It notes that the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates four times in 2025, totaling a reduction of 100 basis points [4]. - The report emphasizes that while copper and aluminum prices may experience fluctuations, the overall demand is improving, leading to a positive outlook for these metals [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) experienced a decline of 6.5% over the past month, while the CSI 300 index fell by 3.6% [1]. Economic Data - In March, US manufacturing output increased by 0.3%, retail sales rose by 1.4%, and industrial production decreased by 0.3% [3][4]. - China's March imports decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, while exports increased by 12.4% [5][27]. Gold Market - The report indicates that gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend due to the ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10]. Copper and Aluminum Market - Copper prices are expected to remain stable with short-term demand improving, despite tariff impacts yet to fully transmit to upstream materials [7]. - Aluminum prices are projected to be strong due to high operational rates in the processing sector [8]. Tin and Antimony Market - Tin prices are expected to trend higher due to supply disruptions, while antimony prices are anticipated to rise due to tight raw material availability [10][11]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, including Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [11].