2026 年 01 月 27 日 铜铝下游开工率有所回升，高价接受度提升 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：杜飞 | S1050523070001 | | dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属(申万) 24.5 37.5 131.2 沪深 300 1.1 -0.2 23.3 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -50 0 50 100 150 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：1 月美联 储进一步降息的概率较高，黄金上 行动力较足》2026-01-20 2、《有色金属行业周报：美国非农 就业人数不及预期，贵金属进一步 上行》2026-01-13 3、《有色金属行业周报：LME 铜库 存注销，推动铜价走高》2025-12- 09 ▌贵金属：PCE 数据温和叠加年内仍将降息，支撑贵 金属价格 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为 4946.25 美元/盎司，环比 1 月 16 日+335.20 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the rise in non-ferrous metals is driven by multiple factors including macroeconomic environment, industry fundamentals, capital allocation, and geopolitical issues, rather than a single cause [1] - As of January 5, 2026, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) increased by 0.90%, with notable gains in stocks such as China Aluminum (up 5.40%) and Platinum New Materials (up 5.19%) [1] - Precious metals like silver and gold saw significant price increases, with silver rising nearly 5% to $76.358 per ounce and gold surpassing $4400, reflecting a broader trend in the precious metals market [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metal sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index accounted for 51.65% of the index, with companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum among the leaders [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the non-ferrous metal industry, with the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) rising by 0.72% and specific stocks like Guocheng Mining (000688) and Huayou Cobalt (603799) showing significant gains [1] - The COMEX gold futures increased by 0.2% to $4,352.3 per ounce, while spot gold rose by 0.17% to $4,338.83 per ounce, indicating a strong momentum in precious metals [1] - The article mentions a policy from the National Development and Reform Commission encouraging mergers and reorganizations in resource-constrained industries like alumina, which has led to a significant rise in alumina prices [1] Group 2 - The Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159880) closely tracks the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals, which includes 50 securities that reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals account for 52.34% of the index, with companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) being prominent [2]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to continue its excess returns due to favorable conditions and increased trading activity, with strong profitability forecasts and a leading index for stock prices [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The prices of industrial metals such as copper and aluminum are influenced by global economic cycles and their own supply-demand dynamics, typically resulting in a positive correlation with industry indices [1] - The profitability forecast index for the non-ferrous metals industry is relatively strong, indicating a leading effect on stock prices [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Institutional funds are generally underweight in cyclical sectors, but public funds, foreign capital, and margin trading have slightly overweighted the non-ferrous metals industry, reflecting high market attention [1] - The ongoing construction of a unified national market, along with supply-side reforms and policies to expand domestic demand, is expected to further improve the outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Group 3: ETF and Index Information - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which includes listed companies involved in precious metals, base metals, and rare metals mining and smelting [1] - This index is characterized by strong cyclicality and significant influence from the global economic environment, effectively reflecting market dynamics in the non-ferrous metals mining and smelting industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [64]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown resilience, with a 0.99% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.15 percentage points [3][13]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for copper due to increasing demand in the renewable energy sector, despite a projected global copper surplus of 178,000 tons in 2025 [6][59]. - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, with gold prices expected to rise again after a period of fluctuation, supported by declining dollar credit and reduced risk aversion [60][61]. - The energy metals sector is benefiting from new regulations in lithium mining, which are expected to support prices and production costs [61]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of November 13, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has increased by 3.08% this month and 81.32% year-to-date, ranking first among 31 industries [13][18]. - The energy metals sector rose by 5.68% this month, while the precious metals sector increased by 2.28% [18]. Price Analysis - As of November 13, 2025, LME prices are as follows: copper at $10,859/ton, aluminum at $2,877/ton, lead at $2,075/ton, zinc at $3,040.50/ton, nickel at $14,955/ton, and tin at $37,065/ton [24][59]. - COMEX gold is priced at $4,174.50/oz, and silver at $52.23/oz as of November 13, 2025 [35][41]. Industry News - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a 1.4% growth rate for global copper mines in 2025, primarily due to significant accidents at major mines [59]. - New regulations in Jiangxi province regarding lithium mining are expected to increase production costs, thereby supporting lithium prices [53][61]. Company Announcements - Western Mining (601168) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) are recommended for attention due to their strong performance and growth potential in the non-ferrous metals sector [62][59].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by supply disruptions and rising aluminum prices, with significant gains in key stocks [1] - As of November 6, 2025, the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index (399395) rose by 2.66%, with notable increases in stocks such as Nanshan Aluminum (600219) up 9.96% and China Aluminum (601600) up 9.02% [1] - The third quarter of 2025 saw the electrolytic aluminum sector generate revenue of 113.93 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.19%, and a net profit of 10.40 billion yuan, up 8.33% [1] Group 2 - The Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index (399395) includes 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metal sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 52.91% of the total, including Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is expected to boost policy and infrastructure demand, leading to a favorable macroeconomic environment for basic metals like copper and aluminum [1] Domestic Factors - The anticipated dual easing of fiscal and monetary policies is likely to improve macroeconomic sentiment, supporting demand for basic metals [1] - The domestic demand peak is gradually being realized, indicating strong consumption resilience, which is expected to strengthen aluminum prices [1] Overseas Supply Disruptions - Supply disturbances from overseas, such as Century Aluminum's electrolytic aluminum production line failure, are contributing to the market dynamics [1] Investment Opportunities - The Huachuang Securities report highlights the potential for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly through the Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881), which tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708) [1] - The CSI Non-Ferrous Index includes listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, covering sectors like copper, gold, aluminum, and rare earths [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of non-ferrous metal industry listed companies, characterized by cyclical nature and high volatility, making it suitable for investors with a research background in cyclical industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Nonferrous Metal Industry Co., Ltd. (中色股份) has shown a significant increase in price and trading volume, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of October 13, 2025, the stock closed at 7.62 yuan, up 8.09%, with a trading volume of 2.4393 million hands and a total transaction amount of 1.787 billion yuan [1]. - The company reported a main revenue of 5.292 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 441 million yuan, up 40.0% year-on-year [4]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a single-quarter main revenue of 2.835 billion yuan, a 9.87% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 193 million yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 1228.98% year-on-year [4]. Capital Flow - On October 13, 2025, the net inflow of main funds was 173 million yuan, accounting for 9.7% of the total transaction amount, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 148 million yuan, representing 8.28% of the total [1]. - The financing data indicates a net financing purchase of 65.793 million yuan on the same day, with a financing balance of 707 million yuan [2]. Industry Position - The company has a total market value of 15.208 billion yuan, which is below the industry average of 32.817 billion yuan, ranking 35th out of 76 in the industry [4]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) stands at 17.26, significantly lower than the industry average of 46.26, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [4]. - The company has a gross profit margin of 16.83%, which is higher than the industry average of 15.29%, and a return on equity (ROE) of 7.51%, outperforming the industry average of 3.88% [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the non-ferrous metal industry index has seen a significant increase, driven by rising copper prices and specific market events [1] - As of October 9, 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) rose by 5.63%, with key stocks like Yunnan Copper (000878) and Jiangxi Copper (600362) both increasing by 10% [1] - The LME copper price reached a new high of $10,800 per ton on October 6, marking a 16-month peak, following a substantial increase during the National Day holiday [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index and reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector [2] - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index accounted for 50.35% of the index, with companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) among the leaders [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [66]. Core Views - Recent disruptions in copper mining, particularly the mudslide incident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, have raised concerns about copper supply, potentially leading to price increases as demand peaks in the industrial metals sector [5][57]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to support metal prices, particularly as the domestic industrial metal demand season approaches [5][59]. - The report highlights significant price movements in various metal markets, with copper prices reaching $10,275 per ton and gold prices increasing to $3,780.50 per ounce as of September 25, 2025 [24][36]. Market Review - As of September 25, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has seen a 1.28% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.28 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 sectors [12]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals industry has risen by 56.32%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has increased by 39.58% [12]. - The energy metals sector has shown a notable increase of 4.68% in the last two weeks, while the small metals sector has decreased by 5.42% [19][18]. Price Analysis - As of September 25, 2025, the following prices were recorded: LME copper at $10,275/ton, LME aluminum at $2,664/ton, LME lead at $2,009/ton, LME zinc at $2,922.50/ton, LME nickel at $15,240/ton, and LME tin at $34,390/ton [24][58]. - Gold prices have increased by $264.4 since the beginning of September, with COMEX silver also showing a rise of $4.72 [36][59]. - The report notes a decline in rare earth prices, with the rare earth price index at 217.37, down 9.56 from the beginning of September [42][60]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Xingye Silver Tin (000426) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) in the industrial metals sector [5][59]. - In the gold sector, Zijin Mining (601899) is recommended due to its potential for growth amid rising gold prices [59]. - For small metals, companies like Xiamen Tungsten (600549), China Rare Earth (000831), and Jieli Permanent Magnet (300748) are highlighted for their market positions [61].