Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to continue its excess returns due to favorable conditions and increased trading activity, with strong profitability forecasts and a leading index for stock prices [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The prices of industrial metals such as copper and aluminum are influenced by global economic cycles and their own supply-demand dynamics, typically resulting in a positive correlation with industry indices [1] - The profitability forecast index for the non-ferrous metals industry is relatively strong, indicating a leading effect on stock prices [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Institutional funds are generally underweight in cyclical sectors, but public funds, foreign capital, and margin trading have slightly overweighted the non-ferrous metals industry, reflecting high market attention [1] - The ongoing construction of a unified national market, along with supply-side reforms and policies to expand domestic demand, is expected to further improve the outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Group 3: ETF and Index Information - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which includes listed companies involved in precious metals, base metals, and rare metals mining and smelting [1] - This index is characterized by strong cyclicality and significant influence from the global economic environment, effectively reflecting market dynamics in the non-ferrous metals mining and smelting industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [64]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown resilience, with a 0.99% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.15 percentage points [3][13]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for copper due to increasing demand in the renewable energy sector, despite a projected global copper surplus of 178,000 tons in 2025 [6][59]. - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, with gold prices expected to rise again after a period of fluctuation, supported by declining dollar credit and reduced risk aversion [60][61]. - The energy metals sector is benefiting from new regulations in lithium mining, which are expected to support prices and production costs [61]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of November 13, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has increased by 3.08% this month and 81.32% year-to-date, ranking first among 31 industries [13][18]. - The energy metals sector rose by 5.68% this month, while the precious metals sector increased by 2.28% [18]. Price Analysis - As of November 13, 2025, LME prices are as follows: copper at $10,859/ton, aluminum at $2,877/ton, lead at $2,075/ton, zinc at $3,040.50/ton, nickel at $14,955/ton, and tin at $37,065/ton [24][59]. - COMEX gold is priced at $4,174.50/oz, and silver at $52.23/oz as of November 13, 2025 [35][41]. Industry News - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a 1.4% growth rate for global copper mines in 2025, primarily due to significant accidents at major mines [59]. - New regulations in Jiangxi province regarding lithium mining are expected to increase production costs, thereby supporting lithium prices [53][61]. Company Announcements - Western Mining (601168) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) are recommended for attention due to their strong performance and growth potential in the non-ferrous metals sector [62][59].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by supply disruptions and rising aluminum prices, with significant gains in key stocks [1] - As of November 6, 2025, the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index (399395) rose by 2.66%, with notable increases in stocks such as Nanshan Aluminum (600219) up 9.96% and China Aluminum (601600) up 9.02% [1] - The third quarter of 2025 saw the electrolytic aluminum sector generate revenue of 113.93 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.19%, and a net profit of 10.40 billion yuan, up 8.33% [1] Group 2 - The Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index (399395) includes 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metal sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 52.91% of the total, including Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is expected to boost policy and infrastructure demand, leading to a favorable macroeconomic environment for basic metals like copper and aluminum [1] Domestic Factors - The anticipated dual easing of fiscal and monetary policies is likely to improve macroeconomic sentiment, supporting demand for basic metals [1] - The domestic demand peak is gradually being realized, indicating strong consumption resilience, which is expected to strengthen aluminum prices [1] Overseas Supply Disruptions - Supply disturbances from overseas, such as Century Aluminum's electrolytic aluminum production line failure, are contributing to the market dynamics [1] Investment Opportunities - The Huachuang Securities report highlights the potential for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly through the Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881), which tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708) [1] - The CSI Non-Ferrous Index includes listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, covering sectors like copper, gold, aluminum, and rare earths [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of non-ferrous metal industry listed companies, characterized by cyclical nature and high volatility, making it suitable for investors with a research background in cyclical industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Nonferrous Metal Industry Co., Ltd. (中色股份) has shown a significant increase in price and trading volume, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of October 13, 2025, the stock closed at 7.62 yuan, up 8.09%, with a trading volume of 2.4393 million hands and a total transaction amount of 1.787 billion yuan [1]. - The company reported a main revenue of 5.292 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 441 million yuan, up 40.0% year-on-year [4]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a single-quarter main revenue of 2.835 billion yuan, a 9.87% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 193 million yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 1228.98% year-on-year [4]. Capital Flow - On October 13, 2025, the net inflow of main funds was 173 million yuan, accounting for 9.7% of the total transaction amount, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 148 million yuan, representing 8.28% of the total [1]. - The financing data indicates a net financing purchase of 65.793 million yuan on the same day, with a financing balance of 707 million yuan [2]. Industry Position - The company has a total market value of 15.208 billion yuan, which is below the industry average of 32.817 billion yuan, ranking 35th out of 76 in the industry [4]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) stands at 17.26, significantly lower than the industry average of 46.26, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [4]. - The company has a gross profit margin of 16.83%, which is higher than the industry average of 15.29%, and a return on equity (ROE) of 7.51%, outperforming the industry average of 3.88% [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the non-ferrous metal industry index has seen a significant increase, driven by rising copper prices and specific market events [1] - As of October 9, 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) rose by 5.63%, with key stocks like Yunnan Copper (000878) and Jiangxi Copper (600362) both increasing by 10% [1] - The LME copper price reached a new high of $10,800 per ton on October 6, marking a 16-month peak, following a substantial increase during the National Day holiday [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index and reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector [2] - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index accounted for 50.35% of the index, with companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) among the leaders [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [66]. Core Views - Recent disruptions in copper mining, particularly the mudslide incident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, have raised concerns about copper supply, potentially leading to price increases as demand peaks in the industrial metals sector [5][57]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to support metal prices, particularly as the domestic industrial metal demand season approaches [5][59]. - The report highlights significant price movements in various metal markets, with copper prices reaching $10,275 per ton and gold prices increasing to $3,780.50 per ounce as of September 25, 2025 [24][36]. Market Review - As of September 25, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has seen a 1.28% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.28 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 sectors [12]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals industry has risen by 56.32%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has increased by 39.58% [12]. - The energy metals sector has shown a notable increase of 4.68% in the last two weeks, while the small metals sector has decreased by 5.42% [19][18]. Price Analysis - As of September 25, 2025, the following prices were recorded: LME copper at $10,275/ton, LME aluminum at $2,664/ton, LME lead at $2,009/ton, LME zinc at $2,922.50/ton, LME nickel at $15,240/ton, and LME tin at $34,390/ton [24][58]. - Gold prices have increased by $264.4 since the beginning of September, with COMEX silver also showing a rise of $4.72 [36][59]. - The report notes a decline in rare earth prices, with the rare earth price index at 217.37, down 9.56 from the beginning of September [42][60]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Xingye Silver Tin (000426) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) in the industrial metals sector [5][59]. - In the gold sector, Zijin Mining (601899) is recommended due to its potential for growth amid rising gold prices [59]. - For small metals, companies like Xiamen Tungsten (600549), China Rare Earth (000831), and Jieli Permanent Magnet (300748) are highlighted for their market positions [61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a projected investment return that exceeds the market benchmark index by 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the holdings of actively managed equity funds in the non-ferrous metals sector increased, with a notable rise in rare earth and minor metals [1][2]. - The total market value of heavy holdings in the non-ferrous metals sector reached approximately 70.4 billion yuan, representing 4.29% of the total heavy holdings of funds, an increase from 4.22% in Q1 2025 [1]. - The top ten heavy holdings are concentrated in copper, gold, and aluminum, with Zijin Mining remaining the largest holding at 22.8 billion yuan [1]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - The increase in holdings is primarily in rare earth and minor metals, with significant increases in stocks such as Guangsheng Nonferrous (largest increase in rare earth), Haotong Technology (platinum, palladium, rhodium recovery), and others [2]. - Conversely, reductions in holdings were noted in aluminum, gold, and certain processing stocks, with the largest decrease in Western Materials (titanium) [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that supply constraints will support price increases for rare earths, copper, and aluminum, while precious metals will benefit from weakened dollar credit and a rate-cutting cycle [2]. - Specific recommendations include: - Rare Earths: Favorable outlook for prices, with recommendations for Northern Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous [2]. - Copper: Limited supply growth, with a positive demand outlook in Q4 2025; recommended stocks include Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [2]. - Aluminum: Anticipated supply constraints; recommended stock is China Hongqiao [2]. - Gold: Positive outlook due to weakened dollar credit and increasing ETF demand; recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold [2]. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with all recommended companies rated as "Increase" [4]. - Notable companies include: - Zijin Mining: EPS forecast of 1.77 yuan for 2025, PE of 11 [4]. - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS forecast of 0.62 yuan for 2025, PE of 14 [4]. - Jincheng Mining: EPS forecast of 3.61 yuan for 2025, PE of 13 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Increase" [5] Core Viewpoints - In Q2 2025, the holdings of non-ferrous metal heavy stocks by active equity funds increased, with significant increases in rare earth and minor metals [1][2] - The total market value of active equity funds' holdings in the non-ferrous metals sector reached approximately 70.4 billion yuan, accounting for 4.29% of the total heavy stock holdings, an increase of 0.07 percentage points from Q1 2025 [1] - The top ten heavy stocks are concentrated in copper, gold, and aluminum, with Zijin Mining remaining the largest heavy stock [1] Summary by Sections Heavy Stock Holdings - The market value of the top ten heavy stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector includes Zijin Mining (22.8 billion yuan), Shandong Gold (4.4 billion yuan), and Zhongjin Gold (3 billion yuan) [1] - The increase in holdings is mainly concentrated in rare earth and minor metal sectors, with the largest increases seen in stocks like Guangsheng Nonferrous (rare earth) and Haotong Technology (platinum, palladium, rhodium recovery) [2] Investment Recommendations - Supply constraints are expected to support the price increases of rare earths, copper, and aluminum, while precious metals will benefit from weakened dollar credit and a rate-cutting cycle [2] - Specific recommendations include: - Rare Earth: Favorable outlook for rare earth prices, with recommendations for Northern Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous [2] - Copper: Limited supply growth due to reduced capital expenditure, with recommendations for Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [2] - Aluminum: Anticipated supply ceiling for electrolytic aluminum, recommending China Hongqiao [2] - Gold: Positive outlook for gold prices due to weakened dollar credit, with recommendations for Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are as follows: - Zijin Mining: EPS of 1.21 (2024), PE of 16 (2024) [4] - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS of 0.63 (2024), PE of 14 (2024) [4] - Jincheng Mining: EPS of 2.54 (2024), PE of 19 (2024) [4] - Western Mining: EPS of 1.23 (2024), PE of 14 (2024) [4] - China Hongqiao: EPS of 2.36 (2024), PE of 8 (2024) [4] - Northern Rare Earth: EPS of 0.28 (2024), PE of 126 (2024) [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the rare earth market is experiencing improved supply and demand dynamics, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, driven by frequent bidding from magnet manufacturers and concerns over supply reductions [4] - Precious metals are supported by shifting interest rate expectations and strong U.S. non-farm payroll data, enhancing the attractiveness of gold as an investment [5] - Copper prices are fluctuating at high levels, influenced by tariff expectations and macroeconomic factors, with a potential support level identified at approximately 9,350 USD per ton [5] - Aluminum prices are expected to trend upward due to easing trade tensions and a decrease in overall inventory levels [6] - Antimony prices are stabilizing around 190,000 CNY per ton, with a potential for a stocking-up trend as supply tightens [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 5,199.61, with a weekly high of 5,230.85 and a low of 3,700.90 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals: LME copper decreased by 0.02%, aluminum increased by 0.97%, zinc increased by 0.70%, lead decreased by 1.32%, and tin increased by 0.74% [18] - Precious metals: COMEX gold increased by 1.79%, silver increased by 5.82%, NYMEX palladium increased by 14.68%, and platinum decreased by 7.32% [18] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes: copper increased by 22,839 tons, aluminum increased by 20,687 tons, zinc decreased by 2,326 tons, lead decreased by 3,512 tons, tin decreased by 126 tons, and nickel increased by 3,167 tons [26]