1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [4] - Alumina: Medium - to long - term oscillating weakly, short - term consider cautious short - selling for far - month contracts [5] - Aluminum: Short - term oscillating, medium - term oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Spot AD is weak in the off - season, and the futures price is pressured following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [9] - Lead: Oscillating [15] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short - term, suggest long - term position take profit [20] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short - term [25] - Tin: Oscillating [26] 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar hits a new low this year, and non - ferrous metals reach a new high since early April. In the short - to medium - term, the weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weak demand expectations are intertwined, leading non - ferrous metals to oscillate upward. Focus on structural opportunities and cautiously consider short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long - term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider short - selling opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - The US dollar index declines, and copper prices remain high. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and a major global copper mine initiates mid - year negotiations. China's electrolytic copper production increases. Spot premiums rise, and inventories slightly increase. Macro factors boost copper prices, and supply risks exist while demand is in the off - season. The short - term outlook is high - level oscillation [4] 3.1.2 Alumina - Weekly inventories increase, and the futures spread is high. Spot prices mostly decline, and overseas transactions show price increases. In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and the spot price center moves down. The long - term situation is affected by events, and the outlook is medium - to long - term oscillation with a weakening trend [5] 3.1.3 Aluminum - Regional premiums and discounts are differentiated, and the electrolytic aluminum futures oscillate. Prices decline slightly, and inventories show a mixed trend. In the short - term, there is inventory accumulation, and in the medium - term, consumption may face pressure [7] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures oscillate. The off - season pressure on the automotive industry is high, and the electrolytic aluminum situation eases. In the long - term, there is an expected seasonal increase in demand, and the futures price follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] 3.1.5 Zinc - The supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rallies. Spot premiums vary, and inventories slightly decline. Macro factors are neutral, supply is loosening, and demand is in the off - season. The outlook is oscillating weakly [12] 3.1.6 Lead - The off - season of consumption is coming to an end, and lead prices oscillate. Spot prices and inventories show certain changes. Supply decreases slightly, and demand is recovering. The outlook is oscillation [15] 3.1.7 Nickel - Market sentiment improves, and long - term positions should be gradually taken profit. LME and domestic inventories change, and there are various industry developments. Market sentiment dominates, and the industry fundamentals are weakening. The short - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [20] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - The expectation of supply contraction increases, and the futures price continues to rise. Futures and spot prices change, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore is affected by the rainy season. Cost support weakens, and the short - term outlook is range - bound oscillation [25] 3.1.9 Tin - Supply disturbances reappear, and tin prices oscillate. Warehouse receipts and spot prices change. The supply from the main producing areas is tight, and the fundamentals are resilient. The outlook is oscillation [26] 3.2行情监测 - The document does not provide specific content for this part, so it is skipped.

Group 1: Report's Overall Core View - The report provides a weekly analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including their price trends, supply - demand situations, and inventory changes, and gives corresponding investment strategies and outlooks [1] Group 2: Copper Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in Shanghai copper spot price was - 40, and the change in LME inventory was - 200. Other data such as premium and import profit also showed certain changes [1] Core View - Overseas, LME copper warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled, and the LME cash - 3m structure remained at a high level. Domestic smelting enterprises' export volume was slightly higher than expected. Global visible copper inventory was in a de - stocking channel, and domestic inventory was difficult to accumulate quickly. Copper fundamentals and inventory support remained, and attention should be paid to whether orders showed signs of weakness in the off - season next week [1] Group 3: Aluminum Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and LME inventory decreased by 2100. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [1] Core View - Supply increased slightly, and aluminum ingot imports were large from January to April. June demand was expected to weaken seasonally, with a supply - demand gap. 6 - 7 months' inventory decline was gentle. Short - term fundamentals were okay, and attention should be paid to demand. The monthly positive spread could be held if the absolute price fell [1] Group 4: Zinc Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and LME inventory decreased by 625. Other data such as premium and import profit also had changes [1][2][3] Core View - This week, zinc prices fluctuated and declined. Supply side: domestic TC was unchanged, and import TC rebounded slightly. Demand side: domestic demand weakened marginally, and overseas demand in Europe was weak. Domestic social inventory fluctuated, and the inflection point of accelerated inventory accumulation was expected to appear in mid - June. The strategy was to maintain a short - allocation idea, hold the long - short spread between domestic and overseas, and pay attention to the reverse spread between months [4] Group 5: Nickel Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 200, and LME inventory decreased by 816. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [7] Core View - Supply side: pure nickel production remained at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April. Demand side: overall demand was weak, and LME premium strengthened slightly. Inventory side: overseas nickel plate inventory remained stable, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously concerned [7] Group 6: Stainless Steel Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50, and 430 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [10] Core View - Supply side: production increased seasonally in April, and some steel mills cut production passively since late May. Demand side: mainly rigid demand. Cost: nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices remained stable. Inventory: inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts decreased. The overall fundamentals were weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10][11] Group 7: Lead Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in spot premium was 20, and LME inventory increased by 2025. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [12] Core View - This week, lead prices rebounded from a low level. Supply side: scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and some recycling enterprises increased prices to sell goods. Demand side: battery inventory was high, and Tianneng's production increased, driving spot trading. It was expected that lead prices would fluctuate between 16700 - 17100 next week, and supply was expected to be flat while demand was weak in June [12] Group 8: Tin Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in spot import profit was - 498.60, and LME inventory increased by 20. Other data such as premium and export profit also changed [14] Core View - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply side: short - term复产 in Myanmar's Wa State needed negotiation, and domestic smelting enterprises in some areas cut production. Demand side: solder demand was limited, and terminal demand growth was expected to decline. Short - term, it was expected to maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, and June was a key stage to verify whether the shortage of ore would lead to a shortage of ingots. In the short - term, long - allocation could be held cautiously, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period [14] Group 9: Industrial Silicon Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 65, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 448 [17] Core View - This week, the start - up rate in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang increased slightly. The short - term supply - demand reduction pattern was obvious, and the overall supply and demand of industrial silicon reached a tight balance. In the future, supply had great potential pressure. In the long - term, industrial silicon prices were expected to operate at the bottom of the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises, and the focus was on the cost reduction caused by green - electricity subsidies and the decline of thermal - power prices [17] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1746 [19] Core View - This week, lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low level. Supply side: some production lines resumed production, and overall inventory increased this week. Demand side: downstream demand was weak, and only maintained a safety inventory. In the medium - long term, if the start - up rate of leading ore - smelting integrated enterprises did not decline significantly, lithium carbonate prices would still fluctuate weakly. It was expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, putting upward pressure on prices [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with specific trends and suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates steady, with a trend strength of 0 [6][7][11]. - **Silver**: Expected to continue rising, with a trend strength of 0 [7][11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories support prices, with a trend strength of 0 [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina: Monitor production cuts and maintenance, with a trend strength of 0 [16][18]. - **Zinc**: Under medium - term pressure, monitor social inventory changes, with a trend strength of -1 [19][20]. - **Lead**: Expected to trade within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [22][23]. - **Tin**: Tight present but weak future expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [25][29]. - **Nickel**: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with supply and demand both weak and prices oscillating at a low level, with a trend strength of 0 [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipt de - stocking is accelerating, monitor potential purchases, with a trend strength of 0 [34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are continuously de - stocking, monitor upside potential, with a trend strength of -1; Polysilicon: Upstream restarts production, and the futures price is falling, with a trend strength of -1 [38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [45][46][48]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by sector sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [50][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [54][56]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long run [54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night trading oscillated weakly, and short - term strength is expected to pause; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The adjustment trend continues, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market rebounded slightly [56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: U.S. biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitics are both favorable [63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to rise oscillatingly [63]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Oscillating and adjusting [66]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range [68]. - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level [69]. - **Cotton**: Monitor the impact of external markets [70]. - **Eggs**: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the peak - season bullish factors to materialize [72]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for spot price confirmation, and the cost center for the far - end contracts is moving down [73]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [74]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Currently in a sideways market, consider holding long positions in the August contract and short positions in the October contract [57]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip**: Monitor the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at a high level [61]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to trade within a range [62]. - **Log**: The basis is being repaired, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 1 [62][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy for copper continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. - Alumina: Alumina supply increases, spot trading weakens, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity and then fluctuate. If the resumption of production capacity expands further, prices will face more pressure. Currently, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [7][9][11]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Entering June, the market focuses on the US tariff policy. With domestic aluminum ingot inventories at a low level, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [15][18]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The first - day closing price of cast aluminum alloy is near the spot price. In the short term, the far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [20][23]. - Zinc: Domestic zinc supply shows signs of improvement, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate. Profitable short positions should continue to be held, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for arbitrage and options [25][26][27]. - Lead: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [31][33][34]. - Nickel: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. A range - trading strategy can be adopted, with a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and a consideration of a range - selling strategy for options [35][43][44]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel prices break through the shock range and turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [48][51][52]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [55][59][60]. - Industrial Silicon: In June, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are basically balanced, but the industry has high inventory. Short positions can be arranged above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [61][63][64]. - Polysilicon: Short - term polysilicon prices are still weak, and the PS2507 contract can gradually take profit and exit. Reverse spreads can be held for far - month contracts, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for options [67][69][70]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended, and selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [73][75][76]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,880 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The Shanghai Copper index increased its positions by 11,993 lots to 577,700 lots. Spot copper prices were high, suppressing downstream procurement [2]. - **Important Information**: A copper smelter in Namibia suspended operations due to a shortage of copper concentrates. In May 2025, the production of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and copper strips decreased to varying degrees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: China's May exports slowed down, mainly due to the drag of exports to the US. The LME inventory continued to decline, and the delivery risk increased [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 2886 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6029 lots. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with a decline in Xinjiang [7]. - **Related Information**: As of last Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 112.42 million tons, with an operating capacity of 90.65 million tons. The inventory decreased by 2.9 million tons [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production capacity and new production capacity led to an increase in alumina supply, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity [9][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina supply increases, and prices are expected to decline. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract fell 25 yuan/ton to 19,980 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 8696 lots. Spot prices in major regions declined [15]. - **Related Information**: In May 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. On June 10, the inventory of major markets decreased by 0.1 million tons [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continue. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs has limited impact on absolute prices. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories are rapidly decreasing [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy was listed today. The AD2511 contract opened at 19,400 yuan/ton and closed at 19,190 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions were stable, with a decline in the southwest [20]. - **Related Information**: In May 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased year - on - year, and the industry profit gradually narrowed. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [20][21]. - **Trading Logic**: The raw material supply is tight, and the market is in the off - season. The supply of alloy ingots is sufficient, and the demand is weak [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [23]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 1.27% to 21,845 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 0.79 million lots. Spot trading was weak, and the increase in premiums was limited [25]. - **Related Information**: As of June 9, the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased. The arrival of goods in Shanghai and Tianjin increased, and downstream consumption weakened [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc improves, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable short positions continue to be held. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [27][29]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract rose 0.9% to 16,880 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6808 lots. Spot trading was light [31]. - **Related Information**: As of June 9, the social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with June 3. A large - scale recycled lead smelter in the northwest postponed its resumption of production [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [34][37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel, NI2507, fell 1300 to 121,390 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 5664 lots. Spot premiums were stable [35][36]. - **Related Information**: An ITSS nickel - iron plant's 14 furnace resumed production. A Swedish battery manufacturer may stop production. Indonesia revoked the mining licenses of four nickel - mining companies [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading strategy, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage, and consider a range - selling strategy for options [44][45][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel, SS2507, fell 195 to 12,435 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 43,534 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [48]. - **Important Information**: Indian stainless - steel enterprises face import pressure and plan to submit an anti - dumping investigation application. A stainless - steel project in Fujian is expected to be completed in mid - August [49][51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply pressure of stainless steel is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The raw material end provides cost support [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stainless steel prices turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [52][53]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin, 2507, closed at 263,420 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan/ton or 0.21%. Spot trading was light [55]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continued. In May, CPI and PPI decreased [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: African tin mines are gradually resuming production, but the supply has not been realized. The demand is in the off - season, and tin prices are driven by macro sentiment [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 7415 yuan/ton, up 0.82%. Spot prices were stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [61]. - **Related Information**: Shaanxi plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price policy [62]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In June, the demand for industrial silicon increased, and the supply also increased. The industry inventory was high, and the profit was low [63]. - **Strategy**: Arrange short positions above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [64][66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 33,955 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. Spot prices were stable [67]. - **Related Information**: Zhejiang encourages virtual power plants and user - side energy storage to participate in response [68]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In June, the production of polysilicon increased, and the inventory decreased. Downstream prices were under pressure, and short - term polysilicon prices were weak [69]. - **Strategy**: Gradually take profit and exit the PS2507 contract below 34,000 yuan/ton. Hold a wait - and - see attitude for options and hold reverse spreads for far - month contracts [69][70]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate, 2507, rose 100 to 60,760 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 7341 lots. Spot prices increased [73]. - **Important Information**: In May, the sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. The inventory accumulation expectation is strong [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds, do not buy at the bottom. Sell out - of - the - money call options. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [76][77][78].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan, with subsequent inventory accumulation likely to be slow due to strong support from the current fundamentals and macro - environment [1] - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and the calendar spread long - position can be held if the absolute price drops [1] - For zinc, it is recommended to short at high prices and consider partial profit - taking for the domestic - foreign calendar spread long - position [2] - Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [3] - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week, with supply expected to decrease in May [6] - For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large factories in the long run [9] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Domestic inventory continued to increase slightly this week. The earthquake in the Kamoa mining area may affect this year's production. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production, which may affect the domestic TC. The domestic copper consumption shows resilience, and the price is expected to oscillate around 78,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and the demand decline in May - June is not obvious. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction [1] Zinc - The zinc price oscillated this week. Supply - side TC remained unchanged, and smelting maintenance decreased slightly. Demand - side domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains high, and imports from Russia increased in April. Demand is weak, and overseas inventory increased slightly. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be monitored [3] Stainless Steel - Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Lead - The lead price oscillated downward this week. Supply - side recycling and smelting have issues, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week [6] Tin - The tin price oscillated narrowly this week. Supply - side domestic production may be affected by processing fees, and overseas production has resumed. Demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate increased slightly this week. The market is at a low level, and inventory is gradually decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long run [9] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price rebounded after a decline this week. Supply - side production and inventory changes are complex, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are currently fluctuating around 78,000 yuan, with the current fundamentals and macro - environment strongly supporting electrolytic copper. Aluminum prices are expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and long - short spreads in the month can be held if the absolute price drops. Zinc prices are oscillating, and it is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profit on long - short spreads. Nickel - stainless steel ratio contraction opportunities can be continuously monitored. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short term. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week. Tin is recommended to be observed in the short term and high - short opportunities should be monitored in the long term. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long term. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term and decline after oscillation next week [1][2][3][6][8][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 35, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 40, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,652 [1] - **Supply**: Due to the earthquake in the Kamoa mining area, some mining areas stopped production, which may affect this year's output. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will start feeding and resuming production in early June, which may improve the shortage of electrolytic copper premiums in Southeast Asia but have an adverse impact on domestic TC [1] - **Demand**: The consumption of domestic electrolytic copper shows resilience. The State Grid has issued the second batch of tenders this year, and the cable consumption and orders in the remaining time of the second quarter are expected to be strong. However, the consumption of several sectors shows a weakening trend [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 10 yuan, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 20 yuan, and the domestic alumina price increased by 59 yuan [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots from January to April was large. The demand from May to June is not expected to decline significantly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to be slowly reduced from May to July [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 60, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,725 [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: Domestic TC and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly compared with the previous month. Demand: Domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The domestic social inventory is slowly increasing, and the inflection point of accelerated inventory accumulation is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 150 [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The production of pure nickel remains at a high level, and the import of Russian nickel increased in April. Demand: Overall demand is weak. Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory has slightly increased, and domestic inventory remains stable [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand: It is mainly driven by rigid demand. Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. Inventory: The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has slightly increased [6] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 30, and the LME lead inventory increased by 47,675 [7][8] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. Middle - stream recycling smelters have concentrated production capacity, and the demand for waste batteries is tight. Demand: Battery export orders have slightly declined, and overall demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot import profit decreased by 3,040.30, and the LME tin inventory remained unchanged [10] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires negotiation. The domestic Jiangxi region has partially cut production, and the Yunnan region is struggling to maintain production. Demand: The elasticity of solder consumption is limited, and the downstream lacks the motivation to further destock. It is recommended to observe in the short term and monitor high - short opportunities in the long term [10] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 35, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 35 [11] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The overall start - up has slightly increased. Demand: The demand for silicone and polysilicon is declining. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and social inventory has started to be reduced. In the long term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, and the SMM industrial carbon price remained unchanged [11] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The production lines of Tianqi and Yahua have resumed work, and small recycling plants have intensified production cuts. Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the demand improvement by policies is less than expected. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly and decline after oscillation next week [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper remains intact, with high - level volatility. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024. Trade negotiations and global trade order are key concerns [2][8]. - Aluminum prices are relatively high, with the supply growth rate expected to decline in 2025. The price may be high in the first half and low in the second half, and macro factors may amplify price fluctuations [9][15]. - Zinc consumption has a weak outlook, and the price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [17][36]. - Tin fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to remain high - level volatile. The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [37][48]. - For nickel, supply is in surplus, and costs are rising. The price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [53][69]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. - Gold prices may continue to hit new highs, with international prices predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [91][103]. - Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [103][110]. - The industrial silicon futures market is developing steadily, and the industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue in 2025 [111][117]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market - **Global Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the growth of global copper concentrate production was lower than that of demand. In 2025, many mining companies lowered production targets. The shortage of copper concentrate supply will take time to ease, and overseas medium - and long - term refined copper demand is expected to grow [2]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: Domestic scrap copper direct utilization is decreasing, and supply is expected to be tight in 2025. Refined copper production growth is constrained by raw material supply, and terminal demand is driven by power grids, home appliances, and automobiles, while the real estate sector is a drag [3][6]. - **Macro - market Analysis**: Capital inflows into copper due to its industrial and financial attributes. Trump's potential 25% tariff on copper would increase short - term price volatility and change the global supply chain [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The long - term upward trend of copper remains, but short - term policy uncertainty has a great impact. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024 [8]. Aluminum Market - **Supply Analysis**: Future new electrolytic aluminum projects are mainly in Asia. China's production growth rate will slow down in 2025, and global production growth may decline. China's imports may also decrease [10][11]. - **Demand Analysis**: Aluminum consumption growth may slow down in 2025, with exports expected to decline and domestic demand growth difficult to improve [12]. - **Price Forecast**: As long as China's production ceiling is not lifted, there is price support, but cost reduction and weak demand limit the upside. Prices may be high in the first half and low in the second half [15]. Zinc Market - **Supply Analysis**: Zinc concentrate production has been declining, but exploration investment is slowly recovering. Import volume has increased, and processing fees have rebounded [18][23]. - **Demand Analysis**: Overseas zinc consumption in various fields is still weak, while domestic consumption shows resilience, but there are potential impacts from tariffs on exports [30][31]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [36]. Tin Market - **2024 Market Analysis**: In 2024, tin prices rose, inventories decreased, production increased, and consumption improved [37][38]. - **2025 Trend Outlook**: Global tin ore supply may decline in 2025, and there will be a shortage of over 20,000 tons. The price is expected to remain high - level volatile [41][44]. - **Price Forecast**: The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [48]. Nickel Market - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is mainly from Indonesia. Supply is in surplus, and demand lacks highlights. China's stainless steel production supports nickel consumption [53][56]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost of the nickel industry is rising, and the price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [60][69]. Lithium Market - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, lithium supply is increasing, and demand is also high. There is a surplus in the market, but the surplus is narrowing [75][84]. - **Price Forecast**: Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. Gold Market - **Market Review**: From 2018 - 2025, various factors such as trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts have stimulated the rise of gold prices [91]. - **Price Forecast**: International gold prices are predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce, and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [103]. Silver Market - **Fundamentals**: In 2024, global silver supply increased, and demand decreased. In 2025, the supply shortage is expected to further narrow [103]. - **Price Forecast**: Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [110]. Silicon Market - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are developing steadily, with increasing trading volume and participation [111][112]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2025, the silicon industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue [114][117].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For copper, the inventory depletion rate may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The weekend's Sino-US negotiation rumors may boost market sentiment. For the month spread, the current inter - month positive spread has shown a large space, and subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. It is recommended to wait and see on the absolute price, take profit on the aluminum internal - external reverse spread, and continue to hold the inter - month positive spread if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price center has moved down slightly in a volatile manner. It is in a situation of strong current reality and weak expectation. It is recommended to short at high prices, continue to hold the internal - external positive spread, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity after mid - May. [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and there is still instability in tariffs and continuous disturbances at the mine end. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's tariff policy on China and the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink. [4] - For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and under the influence of tariffs, the steel mill's profit is under pressure. The unilateral price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the reverse spread can be rolled over and continued to be held. [7] - For lead, the lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically. [8] - For tin, in the short term, the domestic raw material supply is still disturbed, and the fundamentals are expected to remain tight in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed from 225 to - 35, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 394, and the Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 20,912. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The demand shows a co - existence of strong current reality and weak expectation. The inventory depletion slope may continue to slow down. [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 195, the domestic alumina price increased by 12, and the spot import profit decreased by 132.42. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium decreased by 120, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 900. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC increased slightly this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly. The demand has limited impetus from the rush - installation stimulus. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point from inventory depletion to accumulation is expected to appear in mid - to late May. [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 0.5, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,550, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 84. [3] - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory is slightly depleted, and the domestic inventory remains stable. [4] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, the production increased seasonally, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased after the festival. [7] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium remained at - 120, the LME lead inventory decreased by 2,900. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to decrease cyclically in May. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week. [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot import profit increased by 2,537.61, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some changes such as the复产 of African mines, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. The short - term fundamentals are tight, and the medium - long - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 260, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 37. [10] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 100, the主力合约基差 decreased by 1,880, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 272. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12]

Core Viewpoint - In the first quarter of 2025, Xiyeg股份 demonstrated significant growth in financial performance, with notable increases in revenue and net profit compared to the previous year [1][5]. Financial Performance - The total operating revenue reached 9.729 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.82% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 499 million yuan, up 53.09% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 494 million yuan, reflecting a 62.43% increase year-on-year [1] Profitability - The gross profit margin improved to 11.5%, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin was 5.22%, with a year-on-year growth of 26.39% [2] Cost Control - Total selling, administrative, and financial expenses amounted to 314 million yuan, accounting for 3.23% of revenue, a decrease of 27.65% compared to the same period last year [3] Cash Flow and Debt Situation - Operating cash flow per share was 0.39 yuan, a decline of 40.14% year-on-year [4] - Interest-bearing liabilities stood at 10.557 billion yuan, down 21.93% from the previous year, but still at a high level, with an interest-bearing asset-liability ratio of 28.33% [4] Other Key Indicators - The net asset per share was 11.5 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.48% [6] - Earnings per share were 0.29 yuan, an increase of 48.28% year-on-year [6] - Cash and cash equivalents amounted to 2.599 billion yuan, up 5.47% year-on-year [6] - Accounts receivable reached 741 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.93% [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Xiyeg股份 (000960.SZ) reported a significant increase in both revenue and net profit for the first quarter of 2025, driven by rising market prices of its main products [1] Group 2 - The company achieved operating revenue of 9.729 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.82% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 499 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53.08% [1] - The primary reason for the change in net profit is attributed to the year-on-year increase in market prices of the company's main products [1]