Group 1: Gold Market - Gold futures are currently trading around 787.78, with a reported price of 785.48 yuan per gram, reflecting an increase of 0.72%. The highest price reached 787.80 yuan per gram, while the lowest was 784.20 yuan per gram, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in gold futures [1]. Group 2: Aviation Industry - Mexican President AMLO responded strongly to recent U.S. sanctions imposed by the Department of Transportation, asserting that the Mexican government's decision to implement flow restrictions at major airports is a legitimate exercise of national sovereignty [3]. - Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer warned that increased U.S. tariffs on Brazilian imports could raise the cost of each aircraft purchased by U.S. airlines by $9 million. The CEO indicated that price changes could lead to order cancellations, delivery delays, production plan adjustments, cash flow declines, and reduced investments [3]. - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports starting August 1, 2025, which analysts believe will significantly impact Embraer, as the U.S. is its largest export market [3]. Group 3: Automotive Industry - Stellantis Group reported a loss of €2.3 billion (approximately 193 billion yuan) in the first half of the year, primarily due to U.S. tariffs and declining sales in the North American market, where second-quarter sales fell by 25% year-on-year [4]. - The U.S. government imposed a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, prompting Stellantis to suspend production at several assembly plants in Mexico and Canada, and temporarily lay off 900 workers in Michigan and Indiana [4].

Group 1 - The Trump administration's recently passed trillion-dollar tax and spending bill adds uncertainty to the gold market, with a projected increase of $3.4 trillion in federal debt over the next decade [2] - The bill aims to stimulate economic growth through fiscal expansion by solidifying 2017 tax cuts, expanding corporate tax deductions, and cutting spending on healthcare and renewable energy projects [2] - However, the administration's anti-growth policies, including mass immigration deportations and new tariffs on Chinese goods, raise concerns about supply chain restructuring [2] Group 2 - The labor market shows signs of weakening, with 130,000 workers voluntarily exiting the job market in June, and long-term unemployment rising to 1.647 million, extending the average unemployment duration from 9.5 weeks to 10.1 weeks [2] - Defensive strategies among companies reflect cautious sentiment in the job market, with a record high of companies prioritizing existing employees for reassignment, and hiring freezes becoming mainstream [2] - The ISM survey indicates that structural unemployment risks may become more pronounced due to these defensive measures [2] Group 3 - Gold futures are currently trading around 775.26 yuan per gram, down 0.45%, with a short-term outlook leaning towards a volatile trend [1] - Technical analysis suggests that gold is in a corrective phase, with key support levels at $3,250-$3,400, and a critical support level at $3,247 [3] - The short-term support is identified at $3,310-$3,300, while the mid-term key support is at $3,247, which is crucial for determining the medium-term adjustment trend [3] Group 4 - Key resistance levels for gold are set at $3,350-$3,360 in the short term and $3,400-$3,432 in the mid-term, which includes significant historical price points [5]

报告摘要 开年以来黄金的表现位列大类资产前列，近期波动加大。关于黄金定价，目前研究多基于基本面角度，比如供求关系、全球货币体系变化、主要经济体赤字率、实 际利率等，我们这里想要补充的一个视角是交易层面。我们从十个维度——黄金价格形态、期货持仓结构、库存及其衍生指标、交割前瞻、期现基差、黄金租赁成 本、期限结构、期权未平仓合约对比、隐含波动率、ETF持仓变动初步构建了一套实时监测金价位置的指标体系。 指标一 （价格形态）：COMEX黄金期货RSI。RSI是相对强弱指数，对金价变动相对最敏感的是日线级别的6日RSI。常用的判断标准是以20\80分别为超卖、超买 区间。在黄金基本面仍处"顺风"时，RSI在强势行情中可能回调幅度并不会很大，甚至可能长时间维持在50以上。3月28日COMEX黄金期货6日RSI突破80提示黄金 具有"超买风险"，此后"超买状态"维持4个交易日。COMEX黄金收盘价自4月2日的3190.3美元/盎司回调6.0%至8日的2998.3美元/盎司。与此同时，4月2-8日，6日 RSI自87.04快速回落至31.55。4月中下旬以来，随着金价的上扬，RSI（6日）再度接近80阈值（4月21日为82 ...