证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 08 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 07 月 08 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：7 月 7 日上证指数上涨 0.02%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，科创 50 下跌 0.66%，中证 1000 上涨 0.24%，创业板 指下跌 1.21%，恒生指数下跌 0.12%。 行业：7 月 7 日表现最好的行业分别是综合（+2.57%)、公用事业（+1.87%)、房地产（+1.68%)、轻工制造（+1.52%)、 环保（+1.1%)，表现最差的行业分别是煤炭（-2.04%)、医药生物（-0.97%)、通信（-0.77%)、家用电器（-0.7%)、 电子（-0.67%)。 资金：7 月 7 日全 A 总成交额为 12271 亿元，南下资金净流入 120.67 亿港元。 7 月 7 日表现最好的行业分别是综合（+2.57%)、公用事业（+1. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Appropriate realization and waiting for layout opportunities. Currently, the convertible bond market is facing supply - demand contradictions and high valuations. In the context of potential increased volatility in the equity market, convertible bonds may face valuation adjustment pressure. Short - term investment should focus on large - cap debt - biased varieties, avoid bonds with overly high downward - revision expectations, realize profits appropriately, maintain a flexible position, and wait for the next layout opportunity [2][45]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Appropriate Realization, Waiting for Layout Opportunities - **Market Performance in Q2**: The equity market showed a deep "V" trend in Q2. The convertible bond index rose 3.4%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index. The low - price index rose 2.7%, and the equal - weighted index rose over 4% [12]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: In Q2, convertible bond supply accelerated, with 11 new issues and a scale of 8 billion yuan. However, due to maturities and forced redemptions, the total scale decreased by over 55 billion yuan compared to Q1. The short - term supply supplement is limited. On the demand side, it first decreased and then increased. In June, there was a large - scale capital inflow [13][21]. - **Valuation Analysis**: The valuation of balanced convertible bonds rose significantly at the end of June, breaking through the annual high. The valuation of debt - biased convertible bonds reached a historical high, while the valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds remained at a low level [39][40]. 2. Market Review 2.1 Equity Market: Index Continued to Rise Strongly - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index rose 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The market trading volume rebounded, and the theme hotspots rotated actively [47]. - **Style and Sector Performance**: Industries such as steel and building materials led the rise, while the banking sector reached a new high for the year. Some sectors such as computer and non - bank finance declined [47]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of all A - shares was 15.76X, and the PE (TTM) of the ChiNext was 36.38X, both showing an upward trend [48]. 2.2 Convertible Bond Market: Valuation Continued to Rise - **Index and Trading Volume**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 447.46, rising 1.21%. The average daily trading volume was 64.766 billion yuan, a 11.85% increase from the previous period [54]. - **Individual Bond Performance**: Dianhua, Saili, and Anke led the gains, while Jinji, Sanyang, and Jingduan led the losses [54]. - **Valuation**: The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with a parity of 90 - 110 was 26.42%, and the average YTM of convertible bonds with a parity below 80 was - 0.27%, indicating a significant increase in valuation [56]. 3. Convertible Bond Investment Strategy 3.1 Stock Market - In the short term, the external uncertainty has increased significantly, and the index volatility may intensify. The broad - based index will be in a volatile state, and investors can focus on sectors such as innovative drugs, self - controllability, AI +, and solid - state batteries, as well as industries with improved prosperity [3]. 3.2 Convertible Bonds - The overall view is neutral and cautious, preferring structural individual bond opportunities. Specific areas to focus on include TMT, robotics, low - altitude areas, innovative drugs, debt - resolution directions, price - rising cyclical sectors, bottom - position bonds, and newly - listed bonds [4]. 3.3 Primary Market Tracking - Last week, 2 new convertible bonds were issued, 1 convertible bond was approved by the shareholders' meeting, and 1 convertible bond issuance was accepted by the exchange [5][68].

来自科技企业的强劲需求，正在成为推动北京写字楼市场回温的主要动力。 CBRE世邦魏理仕近日发布报告指出，今年第二季度，位于石景山和菜市口的两个新项目交付使用，为 北京写字楼市场带来14.8万平方米的新增办公面积。整个上半年，北京写字楼新增供应总量为18万平方 米，已经完成全年预期总量的83%。 需求方面，市场情绪延续向好，使得上半年全市新租交易总面积同比上涨33%。 其中，上半年北京写字楼市场新租需求的三大主力行业依次是TMT（40%）、金融（20%）和专业服务 （12%）。TMT板块中，除人工智能、大数据和平台互联网等支柱赛道持续释放需求外，游戏类需求占 比亦有所提升；金融行业新租活动以同区整合搬迁为主；专业服务业中，内资律所和咨询类租户的升级 需求持续。 从需求面积段看，5000平方米及以上大面积交易数量呈温和回升的态势。 租金方面，受新兴区域分流和租户降本诉求的影响，上半年北京写字楼市场租金累计下降5.5%，至每 月每平方米241.7元。 该机构指出，今年下半年，北京仅有一个写字楼项目投放市场，新增供应相对有限。但相较于需求的恢 复速度，市场的总体供应仍然充裕。因此，业主之间的竞争依然激烈。多位从业者认 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the GF Hangseng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed ETF (code: 159262) provides an efficient tool for investors to access core technology assets in the Hong Kong stock market, with a fundraising scale of 1.337 billion yuan, marking a new high in the past 1.5 years for Hong Kong-related ETFs [1]. Group 1: ETF Overview - The ETF closely tracks the Hangseng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed Index, which focuses on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors, specifically excluding non-technology industries such as pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and automobiles [1]. - The index consists of 30 pure technology companies that are tradable via the Hong Kong Stock Connect, ensuring a focused investment logic that directs funds towards cutting-edge sectors like AI computing power, large models, and domestic chip production [1]. Group 2: Index Composition and Performance - The top ten constituent stocks of the index account for 76% of its weight, with leading AI companies like Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Tencent collectively representing over 30% [1]. - As of July 4, 2025, the total market capitalization of the index's constituent stocks exceeds 10.5 trillion HKD, approximately 13% of the total market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks [1]. - The Hangseng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed Index has recorded a 27.62% increase over the past three years, significantly outperforming the Hangseng Index (+9.40%) and the Hangseng Technology Index (+7.02%) [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Insights - In the first half of 2025, net inflows from southbound funds reached 731.193 billion HKD, a historical high for the period, indicating strong confidence and demand for quality assets in the Hong Kong stock market [3]. - Analysts suggest focusing on technology giants benefiting from AI industry catalysts, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumer directions driven by technological advancements, and high-dividend assets in sectors like banking and utilities [5].

Economic Data Release - China will release several important economic data this week, including June CPI, June PPI, July foreign exchange reserves, and July social financing data [1] - The U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" suspension period is about to end, and the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [1] Stock Market Developments - This week, a total of 50 stocks will have their lock-up shares released, with a total market value of approximately 37.619 billion yuan. The top three stocks by market value of released shares are Lingyun Guang (5.952 billion yuan), Haohua Technology (4.263 billion yuan), and Weike Technology (3.636 billion yuan) [2] Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China is seeking public opinion on the draft business rules for the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which includes detailed processes for account management, funding, and settlement [4] - The Ministry of Finance has announced measures regarding government procurement of medical devices imported from the EU, requiring that non-EU companies' products must not exceed 50% of the total contract amount for certain procurement projects [5] Aviation Industry Initiatives - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has established a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economy, focusing on the development and regulation of these sectors [6] Real Estate Market Stability - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and encourages local governments to implement precise policies to promote healthy development [7] Electricity Demand Surge - China's electricity load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, driven by high temperatures, marking an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts year-on-year [8] Oil Production Increase - Eight major oil-producing countries have decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, adjusting their output based on current market conditions [9] New Tariffs Announcement - U.S. President Trump announced that new tariffs will likely be implemented starting August 1, with rates potentially reaching up to 70% [10] Stock Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a strong oscillation, with a focus on industry logic as half-year reports approach. High-dividend blue-chip companies are anticipated to gain market favor [14] - The market is cautiously optimistic for July, with expectations for steady upward movement in the index amid various influencing factors [14][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a recovery in the leasing market for Grade A office spaces in Guangzhou during the first half of 2025, with increased inquiry and viewing activity compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The supply of Grade A office spaces in Guangzhou slowed down in Q2 2025, with only one new project delivered, leading to a total stock of 6.937 million square meters [1] - The net absorption in the city recorded 152,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%, while the vacancy rate increased by 0.9 percentage points to 19.8% [1] Group 2 - In terms of regional performance, Haizhu District's Pazhou became the most active leasing area in Q2, with a vacancy rate decreasing by 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 3.6 percentage points year-on-year to 23.2% [1] - The average rent for office spaces in the city decreased by 1.4% to 123.5 yuan per square meter per month, with the decline narrowing by 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] - The TMT sector led the leasing demand with a 30.2% share of the total leased area, followed by the financial sector at 16.8% and trade and retail at 16.3% [2] Group 3 - The report highlights the potential of emerging business districts, particularly Guangzhou International Financial City, where infrastructure improvements are attracting financial institutions to establish headquarters [2] - The establishment of a conducive office environment in new business districts is expected to enhance market attention and resource attraction [2]

总量双周报：开启新征程 | | | | 分析师 | 林阳 电话：021-65465572 邮箱：linyang@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480524080001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 康明怡 电话：021-25102911 邮箱：kangmy@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480519090001 | | 分析师 | 林瑾璐 电话：021-25102905 邮箱：linjl@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480519070002 | | 分析师 | 陈刚 电话：010-66554028 邮箱：chen_gang@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521080001 | | 分析师 | 刘嘉玮 电话：010-66554043 邮箱：liujw_yjs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480519050001 | | 分析师 | 田馨宇 电话：010-66554013 邮箱：tianxy@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521070003 | 东兴证券总量双周报 总量双周 ...

在行为金融学中，日历效应作为市场非理性波动的重要体现，一直备受关注。其中，"五穷六绝七翻 身"的市场谚语起源于20世纪80至90年代的香港股市，用以形象描述股票市场在年中阶段由弱转强的 运行节奏。今年来看，6月指数区间震荡后向上突破，进入七月，关于A股是否会延续反弹的讨论如 期而至——结构性行情，还是全面启动？七月行情背后到底有没有"胜率逻辑"？又该如何从中找到 真正具备性价比的投资方向？ "七翻身"真有戏？数据告诉你答案 回顾过去15年（2010–2024年）全A指数表现，"七翻身"确实是有迹可循的特征。数据显示，2010–2024 年全A指数6月平均收益率为-1.1%，而7月则反弹至0.9%，形成典型的"探底—反弹"节奏，也支撑了"七 翻身"的市场俗语。当然，"七翻身"并非投资的金科玉律，过去15年间，7月全A指数胜率仅为60%。比 如2015年在杠杆破裂引发流动性危机的背景下，7月跌幅超过15%。 从行业维度来看，七月行情具有明显结构性特征。胜率靠前的多为军工、新能源等成长板块，以及钢 铁、化工、有色等资源品行业，这些板块多受益于政策预期、产业周期或下游补库等因素。总体来看， 七月具有胜率高、节奏明确、 ...

热点板块：展望 7 月 A 股，可能仍是事件驱动的主题性行情，但板块间将出现高低切换。6 月末创 新药和银行等热门板块出现震荡回调，但 TMT、先进制造等板块开始超跌反弹，虽然 7 月预计仍是事 件驱动的主题性行情，但板块高低切换却是大概率事件。1）促进消费扩大内需是 2025 年的重点任务， 虽然大消费方向年报和一季报表现相对平淡，但市场对后续政策对冲仍有期待，这将是 2025 年大消费 方向的重要看点。关注乳制品、IP 消费、休闲旅游、医美等基本面景气度较高的板块。2）机器人国产 化和走进老百姓生活依然是 2025 年比较确定的趋势，机器人产品将从人形机器人向四足机器人、功能 型机器人扩展。以此带来的传感器、控制器、灵巧手等板块的阶段性机会将会反复出现。7 月特斯拉将 公布财报，且市场预期特斯拉人形机器人版本有可能更新，或将成为机器人板块新催化剂。3）半导体 国产化仍是大势所趋，关注其中的半导体设备、晶圆制造、半导体材料、IC 设计等。4）军工板块 2025 年存在订单回升的预期，大部分军工子板块如地面装备、航空装备、军工电子等一季报已经出现触底迹 象。5）创新药经历了近 4 年的调整后逐步迎来收获期，自 ...

房地产服务和咨询顾问公司戴德梁行2日发布的数据显示，2025年第二季度，上海甲级写字楼市场量价 继续承压。第二季度净吸纳量为8.53万平方米，同比下滑67.6%，环比下滑18.4%。受新增供应冲击，市 场空置率有所攀升，至季度末达23.6%；甲级写字楼平均租金承压下行，降至6.99元／平方米／天，环 比跌幅1.9%。 而从细分行业来看，零售贸易制造业更倾向于传统核心商圈及优势新兴商圈，近期奢侈品、体育用品等 零售企业表现尤为亮眼；TMT行业则布局热门新兴商圈及新项目，主要有平台网络软件服务型企业改 善型搬迁、电商平台扩租需求，以及汽车软件平台企业续租成交。生物医药企业受上海市加快打造全球 生物医药研发经济和产业化高地政策影响，企业升级搬迁或扩租需求持续释放，成为拉动行业租赁需求 的重要力量。 围绕推动高质量发展首要任务和构建新发展格局战略任务，上海正在加快建设国际经济、金融、贸易、 航运和科技创新中心，进一步强化城市核心功能。"政策的调控为房地产市场发展指明了方向，通过优 化营商环境、加大产业扶持力度，为各类企业在沪投资兴业提供肥沃土壤。"戴德梁行华东区董事总经 理黎庆文表示。 （文章来源：新华财经） 戴德梁 ...