专题报告 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2026 年 1 月 6 日 守正出奇，于结构分化中掘金 ——2026 年大类资产配置展望 风险提示：本报告中的资产表现展望通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，大类 资产价格走势受到海内外等多方面因素影响，在政策或市场环境发生明显变化 时，模型存在失效的风险。 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 梁雨辰 S1090523070008 liangyuchen2@cmschina.com.cn 江雨航 jiangyuhang1@cmschina.com.cn S1090525070014 王禹哲 S1090525080001 wangyuzhe@cmschina.com.cn 研究助理 董昱含 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 dongyuhan@cmschina.com.cn | 一、A | 股：结构性牛市格局或将延续 | 6 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1. | 为什么仍看好 2026 年 A 股市场表现？ | 6 | | 1.2. | 为什么结构性行情概率仍相对偏高？ | 10 | | 1.3. | 结构 ...

首先，PMI指数重回扩张区间，有利于春季行情的展开。 2025年12月31日，国家统计局公布12月PMI指数，制造业PMI为50.1%、前值49.2%。这是该 指标9个月之后重回扩张区间，是否意味着经济基本面出现改善？应该说，单一指标尚难以全面刻画整个经济状态，但相比市场预期和之前的状态，相信 是个边际改善。此外，年初阶段基本面数据相对有限，往往难以马上证实或者证伪一种观点。这也是春季行情发生的主要原因之一，即在相对"朦胧"的预 期下，对全年行情做出一种预演。 其次，周一两市高开高走，量能放大。 沪指高开后，一路向上反弹，收盘于全天高点附近，连续收出第十二根阳线。深圳成指表现更强，越过了去 年十月初的高点。两市成交金额超过2.5 万亿元，较上个交易日大幅增加。当天市场热点主要集中在TMT和医药行业。投资风格方面，科技风格领涨。 从运行节奏看，沪指完成小双底形态，正在向前期高点挑战。 沪指分别于2025年11月下旬和 12 月中旬向下调整，止跌的位置基本相同，形态类似 于"双底"。目前正在向 2025年11月高点靠近，需密切关注前期高点的技术性压力和下方均线的支撑力度。 风险提示： 国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期； ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that in 2025, investing in mainstream indices yielded positive returns due to a favorable monetary policy environment, with significant gains in various asset classes, particularly gold and silver [2][4]. - Major global indices showed substantial growth, with the Hang Seng Index leading at 27.77%, followed by the Nikkei 225 at 26.18%, and the Shanghai Composite Index at 17.66% [5]. - Despite overall positive performance, there were notable fluctuations and risks throughout the year, including significant drawdowns in major indices due to various market events [11]. Group 2 - The investment landscape in 2025 was characterized by a structural shift towards technology and metals, with AI and advanced manufacturing sectors leading the market, while traditional sectors like coal and real estate lagged [13][14]. - Successful investing in 2025 required a diversified approach and the ability to select the right assets amidst rapid market rotations [15]. - Investor psychology played a crucial role in determining returns, with common pitfalls including emotional decision-making and mismanagement of market expectations [16][22]. Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, the article suggests that the prevailing low-interest-rate environment will continue to favor risk assets, encouraging investors to adopt a diversified investment strategy across various asset classes [24][25]. - The article highlights the importance of long-term investment strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging and dynamic rebalancing, to mitigate short-term market volatility and capture asset rotation opportunities [28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term logic of the technology sector remains validated, with the TMT sector showing superior profit growth compared to the overall A-share market, similar to previous years like 2013, 2015, and 2020-2021 [1] - The current global technology cycle is supported by significant capital expenditure expansion from major global tech giants, which is a key driver for the technology sector [1] - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a new phase with low-orbit satellite constellations becoming a new battleground for major powers, transitioning from an "investment incubation period" to a "profit realization period" [1] Group 2 - The oil and chemical industry is experiencing a restructuring of supply dynamics due to "anti-involution" policies, alongside a reduction in capital expenditure and emerging demand driving an upward cycle in industry prosperity [1] - The rise in non-ferrous metal prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic conditions, industry fundamentals, capital allocation, and geopolitical factors, leading to a historic mismatch between supply and demand in emerging industries [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation Board 100 ETF (588120) tracks the Science and Technology 100 Index (000698), which includes 100 mid-cap securities from the Science and Technology Board, reflecting the overall performance of mid-cap securities in the technology sector [2]

Group 1: Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock indices in 2025 exhibited a clear "divergent upward" trend, with the South Korean Composite Index leading at 75.6% growth, significantly higher than other markets[4] - The second tier of performance was concentrated in Hong Kong and Northeast Asian markets, including the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225, with growth rates ranging from 23.0% to 31.1%[4] - European markets showed moderate performance, while global benchmarks and U.S. tech-related indices remained relatively strong[4] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Insights - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Industry Index displayed a "strong structure, weak diffusion" characteristic, with materials leading at 161.3% growth, while defensive sectors like utilities and telecommunications lagged[6] - In 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market welcomed 117 new listings, raising approximately HKD 285.7 billion, with notable first-day performance from Nobikang (2635.HK) at 363.75%[9] - The largest fundraising project was CATL (3750.HK), which raised around HKD 41 billion, while 685 companies announced additional share placements, expected to raise about HKD 361.8 billion, mainly in TMT and financial sectors[9] Group 3: U.S. Economic Overview - In Q3 2025, the U.S. GDP growth rate was 4.3%, exceeding expectations of 3.3%, driven by resilient private consumption and improved net exports[10] - Personal consumption expenditures contributed 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth, indicating strong consumer resilience despite tariff impacts[10] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted to April and July 2026, with anticipated reductions of 25 basis points each[10] Group 4: Chinese Economic Trends - Industrial profits in China showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% from January to November 2025, with notable growth in high-tech manufacturing sectors[11] - The solar and semiconductor industries are experiencing a new wave of growth, supported by policy adjustments and rising prices in key materials[11] - The government initiated a venture capital fund of HKD 100 billion to stimulate investment in high-tech sectors, including AI and quantum technology[11]

2026年1月2日港股首个交易日，港股三大指数集体收涨，恒生指数收复26000点关口。Wind数据显示， 截至收盘，恒生指数、恒生国企指数、恒生科技指数分别上涨2.76%、2.86%、4%。 银河证券指出，节后来看，假期期间港股市场与人民币汇率走强表现有助于提振投资者信心，后续上行 节奏还要观察政策预期与产业趋势突破，在上述因素支撑下，春季躁动行情可能提前开启。同时，仍需 关注海外区域政治风险等不确定性因素的短期扰动。展望2026年，"十五五"开局之年改革政策预期强 化，人民币汇率向上等价格因素支撑流动性向好，市场信心有望得到提振。关注盈利修复逻辑下，具备 业绩兑现能力的科技龙头、受益于价格水平回暖预期的周期板块。 兴业证券表示，2026年港股市场将延续牛市格局，行情节奏如"火炬登山"般震荡上行，投资主线聚 焦"成长乘势聚力+价值重构红利"。从基本面看，2026年港股通成分股净利润同比增速预计达7.3%，其 中资讯科技、非必需消费和医疗保健等板块增速领先，盈利改善将为市场提供坚实支撑。而人民币升值 带来的"资产增值+汇兑收益"双重回报，将进一步吸引全球资金回流港股，推动估值修复向纵深发展。 场内ETF方面，港 ...

2025年A股市场圆满收官，上证指数报收3968.84点，全年累计上涨18.41%，印证了国泰海通在2025年的重要策略判断。 近两月共识转悲之际，国泰海通策略 敢于在关键时刻判断"步出先手棋"，跨年行情在12月启动。在市场持续反弹之际，我们认为，中国股市有望跨越与站稳重要关口：1）美联储下任主席谜底即 将揭晓，市场开始憧憬2026年美国降息的前景。海外流动性的宽松，叠加春节前结汇，有望推动人民币的稳定与升值。2）以A500ETF为代表的增量资金持续 涌入，叠加险资"开门红"，配置需求进一步夯实流动性基础。3）决策层首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"，求是网强调"改善和稳定房地产市场预期"，政策进一 每周 一 景 ：上海浦东陆家嘴 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观】 元旦"微度假"热度高 元旦居民出行热度高，"微度假"是主流。 跨区域人员流动以19.5%的同比增速创近期新高，铁路、水路客运增速领跑，中短途微度假成主流，服务消费中游乐 需求表现亮眼，但商品消费受年末翘尾效应消退影响有所回落。其他高频数据显示， 投资方面， 地产销售边际回落，不过其中一线城市限购放松释放部分需 求，基建与开工建设仍受新项目不足等因素制 ...

固收- 2026 年度策略 - 时光倒流 20251230 摘要 中国经济不宜简单类比日本，中国企业投资和科技进步未停滞，海外投 资量级差异也导致通缩情况不同。美国投资者对贸易战关注减少，更关 注科技趋势和资本开支，中国则显现结构性业绩牛市迹象。 高质量发展强调可持续性，而非依赖基建和地产。房地产对 A 股的重要 性已大幅降低，不再是风险资产代理变量。应关注新兴产业和科技创新 带来的增长潜力。 A 股基本面已变，TMT 行业尤其是存储产业占据更重要位置，内存价格 与 A 股相关性高。房地产主要影响存量资产估值，对 GDP 贡献率下降。 房价与利率之间不存在稳定关系，消费领域受房地产市场波动影响也不 稳定，不同区域间消费与地产关系存在显著差异。 出口数据对资产定价重要，但过度依赖可能导致误判。全球通胀传导机 制显示中国长期通缩预期正在逆转，贸易流未断裂削弱了逆全球化解释 力。 预计 2026 年有降准和降息，但为配合反内卷，信贷量不太可能大幅增 加。央行可能扩大买债规模，以应对商业银行资产负债问题及社会风险 偏好提高，确保金融系统稳定。 2025 年量化模型遭遇挫折，因未能准确反映市场震荡特征。债券市场 面临利 ...

Market Overview - In December 2025, the A-share market exhibited a "high-level fluctuation and structural switching" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.17%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.93% [8][13][45] - The market sentiment improved significantly towards the end of December, with the Shanghai Index achieving eleven consecutive gains, driven by easing concerns over AI bubbles and favorable policy expectations for 2026 [8][45] Economic Environment Analysis - Global economic indicators showed signs of stabilization but with a slowdown, as evidenced by the marginal decline in the US and Eurozone PMI indices [19][39] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December marked the third reduction of the year, with expectations for a slower pace of future cuts in 2026 due to internal divisions within the FOMC [20][44] - Domestic economic indicators reflected weak internal growth momentum, with November's industrial value-added growth at 4.8% and fixed asset investment declining by 2.6% year-on-year [21][25] Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau and the Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for 2026, emphasizing a more proactive macroeconomic policy aimed at enhancing growth and addressing risks [29][33] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply was reiterated, with a commitment to maintaining a fiscal deficit rate around 4% to support economic stability and transformation [31][32] Sector Allocation - Recommendations for sector allocation in January include overweighting mechanical equipment, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), electric power equipment, and non-ferrous metals [46] - The mechanical equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased demand in robotics and infrastructure projects, while the TMT sector may see growth driven by rising raw material prices and technological advancements [46][48]

2025 年，双创板块（科创板 + 创业板）凭借新质生产力的强劲赋能，成为国内市场耀眼的主线。作为双创板块核心缩 影的科创创业50指数(931643)，以 "跨市布局 + 硬科技聚焦" 的独特优势，交出了亮眼答卷。站在2025年末的时间节 点，这场"科技盛宴"是否已近尾声？2026年 "十五五" 规划开局之年，双创板块又将迎来哪些新机遇？本文将回顾双创 板块2025年的表现，并对2026年的行情做出展望。 一、2025 年复盘：硬科技领衔，双创板块"产业牛"深化 2025年双创板块成为引领 A 股成长风格的核心力量。科创创业50指数全年涨幅高达64.32% ，大幅跑赢沪深300 （18.21%）、中证A500（22.78%）等大盘宽基指数（截至2025.12.30）。市场关注度与流动性同步升温，成为板块强 势的重要佐证。2025 年，科创创业50指数的成交额相较2024年大幅增长120.68%，充分彰显了市场对双创板块硬科技 核心资产的认可。 图：双创板块大幅跑赢大盘宽基 （1）产业周期上行，盈利能力提升：双创板块聚焦的硬科技赛道技术突破与业绩落地形成良性循环，成为板块上涨 的核心驱动力。受益于全球竞争力提升 ...