智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，8月28日，TMT成交占比40.8%，年初Deepseek行情最高达到46.5%，2023年ChatGPT行情最高达到50.24%。考 虑到TMT市值增长，用其自由流通市值占比进行修正，计算成交占比/自由流通市值占比。当前这一指标为1.57，年初Deepseek行情最高达到1.93，2023年 ChatGPT行情最高达到2.44。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 8月28日，TMT成交占比40.8%，年初Deepseek行情最高达到46.5%，2023年ChatGPT行情最高达到50.24%。 考虑到TMT市值增长，用其自由流通市值占比进行修正，计算成交占比/自由流通市值占比。当前这一指标为1.57，年初Deepseek行情最高达到1.93，2023 年ChatGPT行情最高达到2.44。 不过，考虑到近期AI行情内部的分化，单独计算电子+通信的成交占比情况。当前电子+通信成交占比25.6%，基本已达到2023年以来历轮行情的最高水 平。 同样考虑市值增长，计算两者的成交占比/自由流通市值之比。当前这一指标在1.49，相比过去几轮1.7以上的极值并不极端。 进一步的，用行业内部 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 4.0, indicating a potential upside of 45% from the current price of HKD 2.8 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company has released historical impairment pressures and is positioned for future growth, with a total supply chain asset volume of CNY 203.6 billion expected by H1 2025, driven by strong performance in its multi-level circulation cloud segment [2]. - Despite a year-over-year revenue decline of 9.3% to CNY 375 million, the company is optimizing its business structure and maintaining a cautious impairment provision strategy, resulting in an adjusted net loss of CNY 372 million [2][3]. - The company has committed to a share buyback of no less than USD 8 million in the next 12 months, reflecting its focus on shareholder returns [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of CNY 867.76 million, a decrease of 6.1% from the previous year, with a projected revenue of CNY 1.03 billion for 2024 [6][10]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 was a loss of CNY 286.27 million, with forecasts indicating a continued loss of CNY 748.18 million in 2024, but a return to profitability is expected by 2026 with a net profit of CNY 171.95 million [6][10]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve significantly, reaching 80.3% by 2026, up from 60.7% in 2023 [10]. Business Segments - The core business, particularly the multi-level circulation cloud, is expected to handle supply chain assets totaling CNY 1.332 trillion by H1 2025, marking a year-over-year growth of 54.4% [3]. - The AMS cloud segment is currently under pressure, with a 20.2% decline in supply chain asset handling to CNY 29.9 billion, primarily due to market conditions [3]. - The company is also expanding its global footprint, with cross-border cloud assets and revenues growing by 20.3% to CNY 26 million, driven by increased financing and service fees [4].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend in August, with major indices rising significantly, including the Shanghai Composite Index which closed at 3,883.56 points, up 8.69% from the end of July [2][12] - The market sentiment improved, driven by positive signals from the political bureau meeting and better-than-expected economic data, leading to increased investor confidence [8][12] - The liquidity in the A-share market improved, with the total trading volume rising and new equity fund subscriptions increasing by 7.41% [24][28] Industry Performance - All 31 Shenwan first-level industries experienced gains in August, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading with a 25.40% increase [13][42] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector saw significant capital inflows, reflecting heightened investor interest in technology growth opportunities [3][32] - The healthcare and machinery sectors also attracted market attention, indicating a broad recovery in various industry segments [3][32] Valuation Levels - As of August 25, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Sci-Tech 50 index reached a historical percentile of 92.84%, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical data [41] - Most Shenwan first-level industries showed rising valuations, with 15 industries exceeding the historical 50th percentile in terms of PE ratios [42][44] Policy Analysis - The government emphasized the importance of domestic circulation and the implementation of policies to stimulate domestic demand, which is expected to support economic growth and industry performance [46][48] - Recent policies aimed at enhancing financial support for new industrialization and promoting consumption upgrades are likely to benefit various sectors, particularly those aligned with technological innovation and sustainable development [46][48]

Core Insights - Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ: SMTC) released its 2Q26 earnings report, with the stock showing little change initially but experiencing a brief decline before reversing gains shortly after the earnings call [1] Company Performance - The stock of Semtech Corporation remained relatively unchanged until the morning following the earnings release, indicating a stable market reaction to the results [1] - There was a notable moment where the stock slid in the initial minutes leading into the earnings call but managed to completely reverse this decline within 15 minutes [1] Market Context - The commentary reflects a broader perspective on market dynamics, particularly in the technology sector, emphasizing the importance of momentum in investment strategies [1]

从市场运行节奏看，沪指越过 2021 年市场高点，正在逼近新箱体的顶部。沪指本月初突破了周线 大箱体的顶部，这个位置已经从压力位转为了支撑位。经过连续上行后，沪指目前正在逼近新箱体的箱 顶，关注市场量价配合的情况。 风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 首先，美联储鸽派表态刺激全球股市上涨。上周五，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上整体发 言偏鸽，他认为当前的形势意味着就业面临的下行风险上升。这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要降 息。言论一出，全球股市应声而起，周一亚太股市普遍反弹，A股继续表现强势。除了海外降息预期 外，近期国内拉动内需增长的政策频繁出台，使得投资者对上市公司业绩增速出现上行拐点的预期越发 强烈。总体来看，目前市场对未来的预期开始逐渐乐观，投资者信心明显恢复。 其次，两市高开高收，沪指再创本轮行情的新高。周一，沪指高开后一路震荡上行，中午前后略有 震荡，下午继续上行，最后以全天最高点收盘，刷新本轮反弹的新高。深圳成指近期处于加速补涨进 程，今日表现继续领先沪指。两市量能超过 3 万亿元，较上周五继续放大。微观结构上，全天个股涨多 跌少，全天涨停 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 100, representing a potential upside of 34% from the current price of HKD 74.9 [2] Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with a notable focus on shareholder returns, marking the first dividend distribution since its listing [5] - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 350.46 billion for Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1%, driven by user engagement, a thriving content ecosystem, and AI-enabled business [5] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 reached RMB 56.18 billion, a 20.1% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 16% [5] - The company has a robust financial position, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to RMB 123 billion and total available funds of RMB 1,019 billion as of March 31 [5] Revenue and Profit Summary - Total operating revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31 is projected to grow from RMB 113,470 million in 2023 to RMB 165,167 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.8% [4] - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 6,399 million in 2023 to RMB 24,707 million by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 39.5% [4] - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to rise from RMB 10,271 million in 2023 to RMB 27,056 million in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4] Business Performance Highlights - The company's online marketing services revenue reached RMB 198 billion, up 12.8% year-on-year, attributed to active customer expansion and AI technology optimization [5] - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 17.6% year-on-year to RMB 358.9 billion, with an average monthly buyer count of 134 million [5] - The live streaming business generated RMB 100 billion in revenue, marking an 8.0% increase year-on-year, showcasing strong performance in differentiated online and offline scenarios [5] AI Strategy and Market Potential - The company launched the Keling AI 2.1 series in May, establishing a tiered service and pricing model, with revenue exceeding RMB 2.5 billion in Q2 2025 [5] - Keling AI has begun to penetrate industrial-grade applications, including game production and professional film creation, indicating a clear monetization path and vast market potential [5] Shareholder Returns and Financial Health - The company announced its first special dividend of HKD 0.46 per share, totaling approximately HKD 2 billion, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [5] - Since announcing a buyback program of HKD 16 billion in May 2024, the company has repurchased HKD 8.8 billion worth of shares, demonstrating strong financial health and confidence in future growth [5]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market shows a significant recovery, with strong gains in semiconductor stocks, supported by breakthroughs in domestic AI models that enhance the application of domestic chips [1] - Dongfang Securities highlights the release of DeepSeek's V3.1 version, designed for next-generation domestic chips, which is expected to promote the large-scale application of domestic AI chips in the inference market [1] - The domestic AI chip sector is experiencing continuous improvements in manufacturing processes and technical designs, providing a solid foundation for the localization of the AI computing power chain [1] Group 2 - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the domestic computing power sector is entering a window of innovation, with recent catalysts for domestic computing power chips [2] - NVIDIA has announced the launch of its Spectrum-XGS Ethernet technology aimed at connecting independent data centers to create an AI super factory with a computing capacity in the hundreds of billions [2] - As of August 25, 2023, the A-share NVIDIA industry chain index saw a rise of over 2%, with notable gains in stocks such as Zhongke Shuguang and Aobi Zhongguang [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF has seen significant inflows, with a total net inflow of 57.96 million yuan over four days, reaching a new high of 3.33 billion yuan in total assets [3] - Major AI companies like Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Tencent account for nearly 30% of the ETF's weight, alongside core "hard tech" stocks like SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor [3] - The market liquidity is improving, with expectations of a Fed rate cut boosting global risk appetite, which may benefit the Hong Kong stock market [3] Group 4 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF focuses on wafer fabs and AI applications, aiming to capture opportunities in the "pure technology revolution" of the AI era [4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong technology sector is experiencing increased investor interest, with a record net inflow of 35.876 billion HKD from southbound funds on August 15, marking the highest single-day net inflow since the launch of the Stock Connect mechanism in November 2014 [1] - The top five net bought stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect on that day were all core components of the technology sector, indicating strong demand from mainland investors for Hong Kong tech stocks [1] - The sector is currently benefiting from a dual opportunity of "valuation recovery + performance realization," with leading companies establishing strong competitive moats due to technological barriers and ecosystem advantages [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Theme Index is particularly valuable for investment, focusing on TMT and internet sectors, and includes leaders from the Hong Kong AI industry chain, effectively targeting core technology directions [2] - The top ten constituent stocks account for over 75% of the index weight, providing strong representation and allowing the index to efficiently capture industry dividends while enhancing defensive attributes during market volatility [2] - The Hong Kong technology sector is in a favorable cycle characterized by "increased policy support + accelerated industry breakthroughs + continuous capital inflow + dual recovery of valuation and earnings," with the upcoming performance realization window making the investment value clearer [2]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 策略周报 聚焦科技核心资产 成长龙头崛起，中周期主线加速验证。 相关研究报告 《策略点评报告》20250822 《7 月外汇市场分析报告》20250822 《2025 年二季度货币政策执行报告点评》 20250819 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant increase in interest and investment in the Hong Kong technology sector, marked by a record net inflow of 35.876 billion HKD from southbound funds on August 15, 2023, indicating strong demand for technology stocks [1] - The technology sector's robust performance is driven by a dual push from policy and industry, with a comprehensive support system for technology finance being established, including customized insurance services and enhanced financing rules for tech companies [2] - The Hong Kong technology sector is experiencing a "valuation recovery + performance realization" opportunity, with leading companies benefiting from competitive advantages and a significant decrease in market congestion, leading to improved profitability [3] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology Index has shown remarkable performance, with a 57.26% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index [4] - The current environment presents a favorable opportunity for investment in the Hong Kong technology sector, characterized by policy support, accelerated industry breakthroughs, continuous capital inflow, and dual recovery in valuation and profitability [5]