[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：国际局势莫测下 应坚守贵金属避风港 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 09 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 贵金属 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company has successfully restructured and improved its profitability after facing significant losses and a risk of delisting in previous years. It has a solid market position and a well-established industrial chain in coal, electricity, aluminum, and aluminum processing [1][14]. - The company is focusing on green transformation and expanding its electrolytic aluminum production capacity, which is expected to enhance its profitability due to lower electricity costs in the Sichuan region starting in 2025 [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of the green aluminum pricing mechanism and the company's potential to gain cost pricing power and market access in the European and American green supply chains [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - The company was established in 1993 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2002. It has a comprehensive industrial chain with capacities of 2.25 million tons of coal, 750,000 tons of aluminum, and 690,000 tons of aluminum processing [1][14]. - After a significant restructuring in 2021, the company returned to profitability in 2021 and successfully lifted its delisting risk in 2022 [1][14]. Section 2: Electrolytic Aluminum and Green Transformation - In September 2023, the company acquired a 25% stake in Zhongfu Aluminum, increasing its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 630,000 tons, with plans to reach 750,000 tons by 2025 [2]. - The company anticipates a decrease in electricity costs for its electrolytic aluminum production in Sichuan starting in 2025, which will enhance its profitability [3]. Section 3: Green Transition and High-Quality Development - The report discusses the impact of carbon reduction policies and the evolving pricing logic for aluminum, emphasizing the importance of green transformation for future competitiveness [4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the green aluminum market, with expectations of significant growth in profitability from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Section 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.8 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.1, 6.3, and 5.5, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [4][5].

Market Overview - On June 9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.10%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.34%. The leading sectors included securities, rare earth permanent magnets, and digital currency, while gold, AI applications, agriculture, and photovoltaic themes weakened [1]. Guest Insights - Yang Shoujun, Chief Investment Advisor at Huizheng Finance, noted that in June, undervalued targets in the financial sector and certain consumer categories became the main drivers of the market. He anticipates that after several months of adjustment, specific sectors are entering a value zone, making them attractive for low-cost acquisition [2]. - Deng Yichao, a fund manager at Shenbo, emphasized the importance of focusing on sectors with long-term growth prospects, significant prior adjustments, solid fundamental performance, and recent capital interest. He highlighted the pharmaceutical sector, particularly certain tracks benefiting from technological breakthroughs and policy support, as well as consumer sectors showing resilience due to domestic demand [2]. Brokerage Perspectives - According to CICC, the historical "big bottom" and this year's phase bottom may have already appeared, showcasing the resilience of A-shares. They suggest a return to growth stock selection and sector layout, with structural opportunities increasing and a higher frequency of rhythm changes expected [5]. - CICC recommends focusing on three main lines for industry allocation: 1) Opportunities from the capacity cycle, including industrial metals, lithium batteries, innovative drugs, commercial vehicles, and rail transport; 2) High-growth opportunities less correlated with economic cycles and external risks, such as the AI industry chain; 3) Strong dividend certainty in dividend stocks, suggesting investment in leading consumer companies, public utilities, telecommunications, and banks [6]. - Tianfeng Securities advocates for a defensive approach in June, categorizing investment lines into three directions: 1) Technology AI+ breakthroughs; 2) Valuation recovery in consumer stocks; 3) Continued rise of undervalued dividends, which depend on the progress of the AI industry trend [7].

智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，展望下半年，国内工业金属需求在建筑旺季过后，增长动能 或受到基建空间不足、光伏抢装逐步收尾、汽车家电等需求受以旧换新提振效率下降等方面的压力；海 外能源需求或也将面临欧美经济增长放缓和贸易摩擦下运输燃料和油品终端需求承压等不利局面。预计 今年处于供应过剩格局的商品品种数量增加。目前看，主要品种中或仅国内铝市场和美国天然气市场有 望保持短缺格局。在多数过剩格局下，该行认为价格超跌后的成本反馈和溢价重估可能成为下半年商品 市场面临的变局之二。 中金公司主要观点如下： 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 上半年，大宗商品市场频繁发生同涨同跌的共振行情，背后驱动却并非基本面的内生同频，而更多源于 意外变量的外部冲击。该行认为美国关税政策反复是商品市场共同面对的核心变数，从贸易政策不确定 性驱动跨市套利交易、提振海外金属价格，到"对等关税"超预期、商品市场迎来抛售。 相较之下，该行认为铁矿石和国内生猪现货的溢价可能难以保持，或继续向成本探底。而对于已经跌破 或接近成本的农产品，随着美国新季种植面积调减，该行认为大豆成本折价或有望收窄，但玉米价格可 能继续跌至成本线下方 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [3][4]. Core Views - The combination of "tariff easing + employment slowdown" provides a premise for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, potentially leading to a rebound in metal prices. Optimistic expectations regarding tariff policies have heightened market sentiment, although gold has seen a decline due to reduced safe-haven demand [1][36]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are in a state of fluctuation due to macroeconomic uncertainties and rising inventories, while aluminum prices are supported by decreasing social inventories despite tariff policy fluctuations [1]. - Energy metals, such as lithium, are experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with lithium prices showing signs of fluctuation. The demand for electric vehicles continues to grow, but the market remains cautious [1]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a general increase in prices, with specific attention to gold and silver, which are influenced by macroeconomic factors and market sentiment [12][18]. - Copper prices are currently in a consolidation phase due to fluctuating macroeconomic conditions and rising inventories, with global copper stocks reported at 537,000 tons, an increase of 12,300 tons week-on-week [1][23]. - Aluminum prices are supported by a decrease in social inventories, with theoretical operating capacity in China's electrolytic aluminum industry reaching 43.87 million tons, a slight increase from the previous week [1][23]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rebound following a period of adjustment, driven by the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The recent employment data has raised concerns about economic growth, but the overall employment market is still showing signs of slowdown [1][36]. - Silver remains strong due to industrial demand, while gold has faced downward pressure from reduced safe-haven buying [1][36]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are currently fluctuating, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 59,000 yuan/ton, down 0.8% week-on-week. The supply side is seeing slight increases, but demand remains cautious due to market conditions [1][27]. - The demand for electric vehicles continues to rise, with cumulative sales of passenger and electric vehicles reaching 880.2 million and 438 million units respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 9% and 34% [1][27]. Company Announcements - Companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold and Zhongse Co. have made significant announcements regarding resource verification and project investments, indicating ongoing developments in the sector [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in silver prices and resilient demand for base metals, suggesting a bullish trend in the market [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing increase in gold reserves by the People's Bank of China, which is expected to support long-term gold price growth [4][23]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Shandong Gold, among others, due to their favorable valuations and market positions [4][20]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.42%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 0.88% [5]. - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 3.74%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.86 percentage points [5][10]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 12.16%, exceeding the CSI 300 Index's growth by 13.70 percentage points [9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw price changes, with copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc prices increasing by 2.05%, 0.27%, 1.05%, and 1.76% respectively [4][16]. - The report notes a significant rise in silver prices by 9.24% and gold prices by 0.54% [4][16]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the metals sector, indicating potential growth in earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [20][21]. - Companies such as Shandong Aluminum and China Hongqiao are highlighted for their stable performance and dividend yields [4][20]. Copper Market Analysis - The report indicates a slight increase in copper supply costs, with the current TC at $42.9 per dry ton, reflecting a $0.55 increase [33]. - Domestic copper social inventory rose to 148,800 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week-on-week [33]. Aluminum Market Insights - The report notes a decrease in aluminum prices, with the current average price reported at 20,230 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 0.7% [48]. - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has decreased to 60.90% [48]. Steel Market Overview - The report highlights an increase in rebar prices, which rose by 10 CNY per ton to 3,140 CNY per ton [73]. - The total inventory of steel products remained stable, with slight fluctuations in production and demand across various steel categories [73].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd., is actively engaging in hedging and share repurchase activities to manage financial risks and enhance shareholder value. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of June 6, 2025, Shunbo Alloy's stock closed at 7.18 yuan, a 6.85% increase from the previous week's 6.72 yuan [1] - The stock reached a high of 7.38 yuan on June 5, 2025, and a low of 6.61 yuan on June 3, 2025 [1] - The company's current total market capitalization is 4.807 billion yuan, ranking 48th out of 60 in the industrial metals sector and 3045th out of 5148 in the A-share market [1] Group 2: Hedging Business - The company announced the initiation of commodity futures and options hedging business, with a maximum margin and premium balance not exceeding 120 million yuan, valid for 12 months [2] - As of May 30, 2025, the hedging activities resulted in a total investment loss of 11.5192 million yuan, with unrealized losses from open hedging positions amounting to 15.5225 million yuan [2] - The company plans to enhance market tracking and risk management to mitigate uncertainties from price fluctuations [2] Group 3: Share Repurchase - The company approved a share repurchase plan on November 8, 2024, with a total repurchase amount between 50 million yuan and 100 million yuan, and a maximum repurchase price of 9 yuan per share [3] - The estimated number of shares to be repurchased ranges from approximately 5.55 million to 11.1 million, representing 0.83% to 1.66% of the total share capital [3] - As of May 31, 2025, the company has repurchased 8,605,520 shares at a total cost of approximately 55.58 million yuan, with the highest and lowest transaction prices being 6.80 yuan and 5.94 yuan per share, respectively [3][4]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Huayu Mining (601020) experienced a decline in stock price, closing at 16.39 yuan, down 4.65% from the previous week, indicating market volatility and investor sentiment [1]. Company Announcements - Huayu Mining announced a cash dividend of 0.040 yuan per share, with the distribution date set for June 5, 2025 [1]. - The annual equity distribution plan for 2024 includes a cash dividend of 0.040 yuan per share (before tax), totaling approximately 32.8 million yuan [1]. - Important dates include the record date for dividend entitlement on June 4, 2025, and the ex-dividend date on June 5, 2025 [1]. Taxation Details - Individual shareholders holding unrestricted circulating shares for over one year will be exempt from personal income tax on dividend income, while those holding for one year or less will not have tax withheld [1]. - Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) will have a 10% corporate income tax withheld on dividends [1]. - Investors from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will also face a 10% withholding tax on dividends [1].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. is planning to spin off its subsidiary, Zijin Gold International Co., Ltd., for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, alongside implementing a 2025 employee stock ownership plan [2][3][6]. Company Announcements - The board of Zijin Mining approved multiple resolutions, including the spin-off of Zijin Gold International and the 2025 employee stock ownership plan [2][6]. - The employee stock ownership plan will involve up to 2,500 participants, with a total funding not exceeding 700.40 million yuan, and a stock purchase price set at 10.89 yuan per share [2][4]. - The company’s supervisory board confirmed that the spin-off complies with relevant laws and regulations, and the proposed plan is reasonable and feasible [3][4]. Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's stock price closed at 17.73 yuan, down 4.63% from the previous week, with a market capitalization of 471.22 billion yuan, ranking 1st in the industrial metals sector [1]. Legal and Compliance - Legal opinions confirm that Zijin Mining has the qualifications to implement the employee stock ownership plan and the spin-off, which requires approvals from various regulatory bodies [4][5]. - The independent financial advisor, CITIC Securities, supports the spin-off, stating it will enhance the company's focus on its core business and independence [4].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Upstream Index (H300 Upstream) has shown significant growth, with a 8.71% increase over the past month, 10.63% over the past three months, and a 5.02% increase year-to-date [2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The H300 Upstream Index is currently reported at 2474.02 points, reflecting a strong upward trend [1]. - The index is based on a sample of securities selected from the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Index, representing the overall performance of various thematic securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings of the H300 Upstream Index include: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (29.31%) - PetroChina Company Limited (12.7%) - China Shenhua Energy Company (10.38%) - Zijin Mining Group (9.79%) - Sinopec Limited (9.47%) - China Hongqiao Group (3.57%) - China Coal Energy Company (3.32%) - Zhaojin Mining Industry Company (3.14%) - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (2.77%) - Luoyang Molybdenum Company (2.28%) [2]. Group 3: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the H300 Upstream Index is as follows: - Oil and Gas: 51.89% - Coal: 18.54% - Precious Metals: 14.87% - Industrial Metals: 10.17% - Rare Metals: 2.98% - Oil and Gas Extraction and Field Services: 1.05% - Other Non-ferrous Metals and Alloys: 0.49% [3]. Group 4: Index Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year. Temporary adjustments may occur under special circumstances [3].