每经AI快讯，12月29日，天箭科技(002977.SZ)公告称，公司相关军品2025年度进行了价格审核，与客 户签订了《军品价格调整补充协议》，对以前年度销售合同进行了调整，预计调减当期营业收入约2.56 亿元，影响净利润约-2.09亿元。根据相关规定，公司预计2025年度扣非净利润为负且扣除后营业收入 低于3亿元，股票交易可能被实施退市风险警示。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend last week, with major indices generally rising. The market style continued to favor resource products and technology growth, while consumer sectors experienced a pullback [1] - In terms of industry performance, sectors such as non-ferrous metals (precious metals + industrial resources), military industry (commercial aerospace), and power equipment (data center power) led the gains, while consumer, banking, and coal sectors turned downward [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - The national fiscal work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal spending and ensuring necessary expenditure. Key tasks include boosting domestic demand, increasing investment in new productive forces, and promoting employment and income growth [2] - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 66,268.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. The manufacturing sector's profit totaled 50,317.9 billion yuan, growing by 5.0%. Notable growth was seen in the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors, while the oil and gas extraction sector saw a decline of 13.6% [2] Group 3: International Economic Context - In the U.S., third-quarter economic data exceeded expectations, leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations. The GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.3%, surpassing the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8%. The resilience of the U.S. economy is attributed to strong personal consumption, increased public spending, and improved export contributions [3] - Structural weaknesses in the labor market and the upcoming Federal Reserve leadership change may influence future interest rate decisions [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The market is expected to take a significant step forward as the year ends, supported by factors such as a systemic decline in risk-free interest rates and an anticipated surge in asset management demand [4] - Capital market reforms are enhancing the investability of Chinese assets and improving market resilience to risks, suggesting a potential shift from a volatile market to a more stable one [4] Group 5: Investment Directions - The focus is on technology, financial services, and consumer sectors. Specific areas of interest include technology growth driven by advancements in AI and computing infrastructure, as well as financial sectors like brokerage and insurance benefiting from capital market reforms [5] - The domestic policy to expand internal demand is expected to strengthen, making it a key theme alongside technology. Emerging consumption trends and events like sports and winter tourism are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5]

上周A股高开高走，上证指数走出"9.24"以来的第三次8连阳，并成功刷新逾四年以来的收盘新高点。在 人民币持续升值，更多增量资金入市的背景下，市场蓄积了较强的上升动能。其中，科技是领涨主线， 算力、商业航天、机器人、锂电池等热门板块快速轮动。周内A股交投活跃度有所上升，日均成交额升 至1.97万亿元。风格上看，科技、周期行业领涨而消费行业内部显著分化，整体表现为：成长>周期>金 融>消费。 跨年行情虽有波折，流动性改善不改躁动趋势。金鹰基金表示，部分投资者预期中证A500ETF年底冲 量，年初可能有所反复，市场可能随之反复。但我们认为，春季行情有利条件或仍未改变。国内方面， 财政和货币政策"开门红"均有积极发力的潜力，叠加私募逢低有集中申购、保险产品开门红，人民币汇 率升值利好股市流动性，明年两会和4月特朗普访华均有较好的风险偏好窗口。海外方面，上周公布的 美国三季度GDP与当周初请失业金人数均好于预期，强化企业盈利预期与劳动力市场韧性，但考虑到此 前因政府关门带来负面财政收缩、部分数据缺失等阶段性因素影，预计美联储短期或依然难有进一步方 向性的动作，基准预期仍是美联储1月不降息。不过，美联储新任主席等政治因 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the relative performance of micro-cap stocks and "Mao Index" (a large-cap index), using rolling slopes and relative net values to determine rotation signals[19][24] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the relative net value of micro-cap stocks to the Mao Index. If the relative net value is above its 243-day moving average, the model prefers micro-cap stocks; otherwise, it prefers the Mao Index[19][24] 2. Compute the 20-day closing price slopes for both micro-cap stocks and the Mao Index. If the slopes diverge and one is positive, the model selects the index with the positive slope to adapt to potential style shifts[19][24] 3. Timing indicators include the 10-year government bond yield (threshold: 0.3) and micro-cap stock volatility crowding (threshold: 0.55). If either indicator hits the threshold, a closing signal is triggered[19][24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures style rotation signals and provides a systematic approach to manage risk and optimize returns[19][24] 2. Model Name: Macro Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates macroeconomic growth and monetary liquidity signals to determine equity allocation levels[44][45] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assign signal strengths to economic growth and monetary liquidity dimensions. For December, the signal strengths were 50% and 60%, respectively[45] 2. Combine these signals to recommend an equity allocation level. For December, the recommended equity allocation was 55%[45] 3. The model's performance is tracked, with a year-to-date return of 13.57% compared to a 25.65% return for the Wind All-A Index[44] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced approach to equity allocation, leveraging macroeconomic indicators to guide investment decisions[44][45] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Rotation Model - **Relative Net Value**: Micro-cap stocks to Mao Index relative net value was 2.06, above the 243-day moving average of 1.80[19] - **20-Day Slope**: Micro-cap stocks' 20-day slope was -0.15%, while the Mao Index's slope was 0.00%[19] - **Risk Indicators**: Volatility crowding was -17.17%, below the 55% risk threshold; 10-year government bond yield was 7.32%, below the 30% risk threshold[19] 2. Macro Timing Model - **Economic Growth Signal**: 50%[45] - **Monetary Liquidity Signal**: 60%[45] - **Equity Allocation**: 55%[45] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 13.57% (compared to Wind All-A Index's 25.65%)[44] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the growth potential of companies based on financial metrics like net income and operating income growth[58][59] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use single-quarter net income year-over-year growth (NetIncome_SQ_Chg1Y) and single-quarter operating income year-over-year growth (OperatingIncome_SQ_Chg1Y) as key metrics[59] 2. Combine these metrics to rank stocks and construct the factor[59] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrated strong performance with an IC mean of 10.62% across all A-shares[48] 2. Factor Name: Consensus Expectation Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures market sentiment and expectations based on analysts' forecasts[58][59] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use metrics like expected ROE changes over the past three months (ROE_FTTM_Chg3M) and target return over 180 days (TargetReturn_180D)[59] 2. Rank stocks based on these metrics to construct the factor[59] - **Factor Evaluation**: Performed well with an IC mean of 9.57% across all A-shares[48] 3. Factor Name: Volatility Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures stock price stability and risk using historical price and volume data[58][59] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use metrics like 60-day return volatility (Volatility_60D) and CAPM residual volatility (IV_CAPM)[59] 2. Rank stocks inversely based on these metrics to construct the factor[59] - **Factor Evaluation**: Underperformed with an IC mean of -20.21% across all A-shares[48] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Growth Factor - **IC Mean**: 10.62% (all A-shares)[48] - **Multi-Long-Short Portfolio Return**: 20.54% (all A-shares, year-to-date)[49] 2. Consensus Expectation Factor - **IC Mean**: 9.57% (all A-shares)[48] - **Multi-Long-Short Portfolio Return**: 15.95% (all A-shares, year-to-date)[49] 3. Volatility Factor - **IC Mean**: -20.21% (all A-shares)[48] - **Multi-Long-Short Portfolio Return**: -2.96% (all A-shares, year-to-date)[49]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean Financial Commission has finalized a financial support plan for 2026, with a total of 252 trillion KRW allocated by major policy financial institutions, marking an increase of approximately 1.8% from the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Support Allocation - The financial support for advanced strategic industries will reach 150 trillion KRW, an increase of 12 trillion KRW or about 8.9% compared to this year [1] - Specific allocations include 42.5 trillion KRW for sectors such as semiconductors, secondary batteries, biotechnology, and artificial intelligence (AI) [1] - An additional 24.7 trillion KRW will be directed towards emerging industries like nanotechnology, hydrogen energy, aerospace, military, agricultural food, and wind power [1] Group 2: Additional Financial Support - Funds for enhancing industrial structure and restructuring existing industries will amount to 32.2 trillion KRW [1] - Support for nurturing unicorn companies and small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) will total 19 trillion KRW [1] - To mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on business operations, a support fund of 31.8 trillion KRW will be established [1]

国防ETF紧密跟踪中证国防指数，中证国防指数选取隶属于十大军工集团公司旗下的上市公司证券，以 及为国家武装力量提供武器装备，或与军方有实际装备承制销售金额或签订合同的相关上市公司证券作 为指数样本，以反映国防产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证国防指数(399973)前十大权重股分别为中航沈飞(600760)、航发 动力(600893)、中航光电(002179)、中航西飞(000768)、菲利华(300395)、西部超导(688122)、中航机载 (600372)、航天电子(600879)、睿创微纳(688002)、海格通信(002465)，前十大权重股合计占比44.06%。 消息面上，26日晚间，上交所公布《上海证券交易所发行上市审核规则适用指引第9号——商业火箭企 业适用科创板第五套上市标准》，支持正处于大规模商业化关键时期的商业火箭企业，适用第五套上市 标准登陆科创板。科创板"1+6"改革举措又一项成果重磅落地。 开源证券指出，当前，政策与产业协同正推动中国商业航天迈入新发展阶段：政策层面，2025年11月， 《国家航天局推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025— ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that after the dovish interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, global capital markets experienced a rebound, with A-shares showing strong performance and continuous increases over five trading days [1] - Investors are optimistic about the strategy to expand domestic demand and are looking forward to the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Despite the Hong Kong market being affected by the Christmas holiday and the suspension of northbound capital trading, A-share trading volume increased, indicating a rise in both volume and price [1] Group 2 - The market saw a continuous rebound last week, with increased trading volume; the Shanghai Composite Index maintained above the 60-day moving average, while the Shenzhen Component Index approached its yearly high [1] - The average daily trading volume of the two markets exceeded 19 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase compared to the previous week [1] - Key market hotspots last week were concentrated in the military, new energy, and TMT sectors, with small-cap and technology stocks experiencing larger gains [1] Group 3 - The Shanghai Composite Index completed a small double bottom pattern and is attempting to move above the neckline; it had similar stop-loss positions during adjustments in late November and mid-December [1] - The continuous rebound last week surpassed the neckline of the double bottom pattern, indicating potential upward momentum [1] - Future attention should be paid to the technical pressure at previous high points and the support strength of the five-day moving average [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective surge in military stocks on December 29, with companies like Hengda Gaoxin, Zhongchao Holdings, Haige Communication, Chuanrun Co., Shenjian Co., and Tailong Co. hitting the daily limit, while Aerospace Development rose over 8% and Aerospace Hanyu increased nearly 8% [1] - The Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army announced the commencement of military exercises named "Mission of Justice-2025" starting December 29, involving joint operations by army, navy, air force, and rocket forces in various regions around Taiwan, aimed at testing combat readiness and capabilities [1] - The exercises serve as a serious warning to "Taiwan independence" separatist forces and external interference, emphasizing the necessity of safeguarding national sovereignty and unity [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performance includes: - Guangwei Composite up 11.96% with a market cap of 32.5 billion and a year-to-date increase of 14.51% - Hengda Gaoxin up 10.07% with a market cap of 2.462 billion and a year-to-date increase of 66.67% - Zhongchao Holdings up 10.06% with a market cap of 9.431 billion and a year-to-date increase of 152.38% - Haige Communication up 10.04% with a market cap of 38.1 billion and a year-to-date increase of 40.46% - Chuanrun Co. up 10.03% with a market cap of 8.67 billion and a year-to-date increase of 81.52% - Shenjian Co. up 10.02% with a market cap of 13.8 billion and a year-to-date increase of 167.97% - Tailong Co. up 10.00% with a market cap of 5.163 billion and a year-to-date increase of 52.20% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the military exercises conducted by the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army have led to a significant rally in the A-share market, particularly in the defense sector stocks [1] - The military exercise named "Mission of Justice-2025" commenced on December 29, involving various military branches including the army, navy, air force, and rocket force, focusing on combat readiness and joint operations [1] - The exercise serves as a serious warning to "Taiwan independence" forces and external interference, emphasizing the necessity of safeguarding national sovereignty and unity [1] Group 2 - Several defense-related stocks experienced notable gains, with companies like Hengda Gaoxin, Zhongchao Holdings, Haige Communication, Chuanrun Co., and others hitting the daily limit up [2] - Specific stock performance includes Hengda Gaoxin rising by 10.07% with a market cap of 2.462 billion, and Zhongchao Holdings increasing by 10.06% with a market cap of 9.431 billion [2] - The overall trend indicates a strong performance in the defense sector, with many stocks showing significant year-to-date increases, such as Shenjian Co. with a 167.97% increase [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **A500 ETF** and the broader **Chinese stock market** performance in 2025, including various sectors such as **financials**, **technology**, **commercial aerospace**, and **defense**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Trends and Performance** - The market showed a stabilizing upward trend in 2025, with significant fluctuations due to events like the **Deepseek** surge and the **Trump tariff war**. The **A500 ETF** inflow significantly influenced market momentum, leading to a bullish sentiment with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing **3,950 points** [1][2][7]. 2. **Impact of Small Probability Events** - Frequent small probability events in 2025 had a notable impact on market dynamics, such as the **April tariff war** causing sharp declines followed by strong rebounds. The shift of funds from the brokerage sector to the **ChiNext** and **STAR Market** indices led to notable increases in these indices [2][4]. 3. **Role of A500 ETF** - The substantial inflow into the **A500 ETF** starting December 17 transformed the market outlook from expected downward adjustments to an upward trend, indicating strong buying interest. This trend could lead to potential peaks around the **Lunar New Year** [5][11]. 4. **Brokerage Sector's Influence** - The brokerage sector is crucial in the current market context, with solid fundamentals but suppressed stock prices. The direction taken by this sector could significantly influence the overall market trajectory, with potential for either upward breakthroughs or further corrections [6][15]. 5. **Market Highlights and Drivers** - Recent market performance was driven by factors such as the **A500 ETF** inflow, a booming **commercial aerospace sector**, and strong performance in the **optical module sector**. Growth indices like **CSI 1000** and **National Index 2000** approached previous highs, with notable gains in **non-ferrous metals** and **defense** sectors [8][9]. 6. **Future Market Predictions** - Short-term trends appear positive, but sustainability of driving factors remains uncertain. The overall market trend is expected to remain upward, with potential high points around **4,034** and long-term targets reaching **4,130** [3][11]. 7. **Year-End Adjustment Risks** - Potential adjustments similar to the previous year's end are anticipated, driven by fund switching dynamics. However, the current market strength suggests a higher probability of upward movement compared to declines [12][14]. 8. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** - Investors are advised to avoid chasing high-performing sectors like **optical modules** and **non-ferrous metals** due to potential correction risks. Instead, focus on sectors with lower valuations and rebound potential, particularly in **non-bank financials**, **electrical new energy**, **electronics**, and **chemicals** [16][18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Sector Rotation Performance** - The sector rotation strategy in 2025 yielded over **20%** excess returns, indicating a strong performance in cyclical sectors. Preparations for 2026 should focus on maintaining flexibility in investment strategies [3][18]. 2. **Macroeconomic Outlook** - Expectations for 2026 include potential surprises in **PPI** and **CPI** due to rising commodity prices across various sectors, necessitating close monitoring of these economic indicators [21]. 3. **Focus on Specific Sub-Sectors** - Key areas of interest include **plastics and products** in chemicals, **tourism and leisure** in consumer services, **electrical equipment** in new energy, and **aerospace** in defense, all showing high value in the current market environment [20].