Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the Chinese equity market, highlighting a shift in global perception of Chinese assets and the potential for A-shares to catch up with the performance of Hong Kong stocks in the coming months to a year [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Recent months have shown a recovery in the Chinese market, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rebounding quickly after initial shocks from tariff disputes [3]. - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 27.64% from September 24, 2024, to May 31, 2025, while the CSI 300 Index has risen by 19.53% during the same period, indicating a stronger performance in Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [3]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Four key sectors are highlighted for future investment: AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and power batteries [4][5]. - AI is seen as a core direction for global technological development, with significant investment opportunities in computing power and related hardware [4]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to grow, driven by advancements in research and development within Chinese companies [7]. - The consumer sector is viewed as having no clear distinction between "new" and "old" consumption, with opportunities arising from cultural exports as China continues to grow as a super economy [4]. - The power battery sector remains promising due to its vast market potential across various applications, including energy storage and robotics [5]. Group 3: Healthcare Sector Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical market is anticipated to be a long-term trend, with China's pharmaceutical capabilities aligning with global standards [7]. - Investment opportunities are focused on companies in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and high-value consumables, with a preference for firms with strong clinical and sales capabilities [7]. Group 4: Consumer Sector Dynamics - The future performance of the consumer sector is closely tied to domestic demand, which is influenced by residents' income expectations [9]. - Recent consumer subsidies in sectors like automotive and home appliances have created opportunities, and sustained policy support could further drive growth [10]. Group 5: Technology Sector Developments - The technology sector, particularly AI, is expected to play a crucial role in overcoming current economic challenges, with AI development projected to continue for decades [12]. - Investment opportunities are identified in smart driving and humanoid robots, with the latter expected to see production growth in specific industries [12]. Group 6: Manufacturing and Resource Insights - The manufacturing sector is poised for growth, with opportunities for Chinese brands to compete globally due to improved product performance and stability [16]. - Resource-related companies are also highlighted, as limited supply supports pricing and profitability [16]. Group 7: Financial Sector Outlook - The banking sector has shown resilience, with improved performance attributed to better-than-expected corporate conditions outside the real estate sector [18]. - As the economic outlook improves, expectations for the banking sector are also anticipated to recover [18]. Group 8: Consumer Goods Sector Analysis - The white liquor industry is undergoing adjustments primarily due to inventory cycles and operational challenges, with potential for recovery as internal adjustments take place [21].

Core Views - The A-share market is expected to experience a likely upward trend with fluctuations, driven by performance support and favorable policies [1][8] - The market is currently facing uncertainties due to the approaching deadline for tariff suspensions, leading to cautious investor sentiment [1][8] Market Overview - On Thursday, the three major indices in the A-share market rose, reaching new recent highs, with increased individual stock activity and a recovery in market profitability [4][5] - The trading volume showed some contraction, indicating a lack of strong enthusiasm from investors to chase prices [1][8] - The market is influenced by external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, particularly in U.S.-China relations [4][8] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, particularly in innovative drugs, supported by new measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration aimed at promoting high-quality development in innovative drugs [6] - The consumer electronics sector also saw significant gains, attributed to trade agreements affecting import tariffs on products from Vietnam, which may enhance the competitive edge of Chinese manufacturers [7] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Stocks with better-than-expected mid-year performance, focusing on those with anticipated improvements [9] 2. Technology sectors including military, robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a caution to avoid overvalued speculative stocks [9] 3. Rebound opportunities in sectors like new energy and brokerage firms, suggesting strategic buying during pullbacks [9]

| 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3475.24 | 10540.00 | 1426.61 | | +14.09 +0.41% | +5.42 +0.05% -15.56 -1.08% | | | 科创20 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 984.02 | 2168.03 | 5345.71 | | -0.93 -0.09% | +3.95 +0.18% | +5.57 +0.10% | 7月4日早盘，三大指数窄幅震荡。截至午间收盘，沪指报3475.24点，涨0.41%，深成指报 10540.0点，涨0.05%，创业板指报2168.03点，涨0.18%。 总体来看，盘面上热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少，全市场超3700只个股下跌。 从板块来看，游戏股走强，稳定币概念股活跃，脑机接口、银行、电力板块涨幅居前；军工板块调 整，固态电池、贵金属板块走低。 半日主力资金流向 主力资金早间净流入银行、医药生物、计算机等板块，净流出电力设备、有色金属等板块。 具体到个股来看，沃尔核材、协鑫能科、数据港获净流入22.85亿元、9.93亿元、9.64亿元。 2025.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities anticipates an improvement in the military industry sector's performance in the second quarter of 2025, driven by increased orders and favorable financial results from mid to upstream companies [1] Short-term Outlook - The second quarter earnings season is expected to show improvement due to the release of first-quarter orders and high inventory levels, which may enhance the performance of certain mid to upstream enterprises, gradually benefiting downstream companies [1] - Orders for military components are projected to reverse the downward trend by June, with order growth expected to turn positive in the second half of the year as secondary demand is released [1] Mid-term Outlook - The year 2025 marks the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, which is expected to bring more industry catalysts in the third quarter, alongside positive earnings expectations from some companies in the second quarter, creating structural investment opportunities [1] Long-term Outlook - The ongoing India-Pakistan conflict is enhancing the visibility of China's military industry, leading to a significant moment for military trade, with domestic demand and military trade resonating to open up demand for military equipment [1] - The centenary of the military establishment in 2027 is approaching, suggesting a sustained period of high prosperity for the industry over the next three years [1]

Group 1 - The surge in the consumer electronics sector is driven by government subsidy policies and advancements in AI technology, leading to increased sales of smartphones and tablets [3] - Companies like Water Crystal Optoelectronics are capitalizing on the demand for smartphone camera filters, indicating a significant market opportunity [3] - The AI hardware market is experiencing rapid growth, with sales of AI smartphones doubling and smart glasses sales increasing sevenfold, driven by breakthroughs in edge AI chips [3] Group 2 - The market is currently in a phase of reduced trading volume, indicating a period of consolidation and caution among investors, which may present opportunities for long-term investments [4] - The military industry is undergoing adjustments, with companies like China Shipbuilding Emergency Management experiencing significant declines, as capital shifts towards more certain sectors like consumer electronics and AI [4] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for the military sector remains positive due to ongoing trends in national defense modernization [4] Group 3 - Overall market activity is lively, but there is a need for a long-term perspective, especially regarding the potential overheating in consumer electronics and AI hardware sectors [5] - The current reduction in trading volume allows for more in-depth research into company fundamentals, rather than focusing solely on short-term market movements [5] - The adjustment in the military sector provides a chance to evaluate companies with solid orders and technology, suggesting a potential rebound post-adjustment [5]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 削减支出方面，参议院加大医疗等福利支出削减力度、加快退出风电等新能源补贴。 医疗补助削减规模 从8000亿美元扩大到9300亿美元，或使1030万名低收入人群失去保障；食品券支出收紧；9月30日起取消 新能源购车抵免；为安抚农村票仓，新增250亿农村医院基金。 报告正文 2025年7月2日，《美丽大法案》在参议院以51比50的微弱优势获得通过。法案包括哪些内容？《美丽大 法案》的经济影响有多大？ 一、《美丽大法案》立法进展？参议院投票通过，立法进入冲刺阶段 《美丽大法案》已通过参议院投票环节，立法进入冲刺阶段。 北京时间2025年7月2日，《美丽大法案》 在参议院以51比50的微弱优势获得通过。三名共和党参议员柯林斯、蒂利斯、保罗因医保支出、债务上 限等问题与47名民主党人共同投票反对，副总统万斯投出关键一票。 流程上，法案仍需众议院审核，法案内容存在进一步修改的可能。 后续立法流程为：众议院规则委员会 审议→辩论→众议院投票→总统签署生效。预计众议院最早于美国时间7月2日上午审议该法案。若众议 院否决参议院的修改，则可能需进一步谈 ...

Group 1: Macro Trends and Innovations - The report discusses the potential transformation of the global monetary and financial systems due to the development of stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets), suggesting that these innovations may create a parallel decentralized financial system alongside the existing centralized one [2][3] - It is anticipated that the changes brought by stablecoins and RWA could be as significant as the impact of AI on the global economy, indicating a major shift in how currencies and financial systems operate [2][3] Group 2: Steel Industry Insights - Recent data shows a slight decrease in steel demand, with total inventory shifting from a reduction to an increase, indicating a potential weakening in demand as the industry enters a traditional off-season [5][6] - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.7985 million tons, down by 4.33 million tons week-on-week, while total inventory rose to 13.4003 million tons, marking a 1.14% increase [5][6] - The report forecasts that steel demand may stabilize gradually, with construction and manufacturing sectors expected to support demand, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [6] Group 3: Cement and Building Materials - The cement industry is showing signs of stabilization after price adjustments, with competition and profitability continuing to improve [4] - The report notes that the national average cement price has seen a slight decline of 1.2%, with certain regions experiencing price increases due to demand fluctuations [8] - The building materials sector is expected to enter a low base period starting June 2024, which may improve demand metrics as previous high demand levels are compared against lower future figures [9] Group 4: Glass and Fiberglass Market - The domestic float glass market is experiencing a downturn, with average prices dropping to 1250.27 yuan per ton, reflecting a weak demand environment [8] - The fiberglass market is also facing challenges, with limited order growth and competitive pressures affecting pricing and profitability [8] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several steel companies that are expected to benefit from industry consolidation and high-quality development, including Baosteel and Hualing Steel [7] - In the cement sector, leading companies such as Anhui Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to their market positions [10] - For the glass industry, companies like Fuyao Glass and Xinyi Glass are recommended based on their competitive advantages and market resilience [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current stock index has broken through key levels and still has upward potential in the short term, but the next phase of the index is not a short-term focus [1] - The financial market is not over, and there is a rotation in growth themes, with a focus on sectors such as overseas technology, banking, and non-bank financials [1][4] - By the end of July 2025, the Chinese stock market's valuation logic is expected to shift from external to internal factors, driven by a decrease in the risk-free interest rate, changes in RMB expectations, and macroeconomic policies [1][4] Group 2 - The report indicates that there is still upward space in the stock market before the end of July, attributed to a significant reduction in the risk-free interest rate and a historical turning point for medium- and long-term capital entering the market [4] - The RMB is expected to shift from depreciation to stability or slight appreciation, which will drive the revaluation of Chinese assets [4] - The report emphasizes the need for structural performance focus in investments, as the market may experience consolidation after the rise, potentially leading to sideways movement in the next phase [1][4]

Group 1 - The A-share market is showing a mixed trend but is still moving upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing a resistance level at 3490 in July [1] - The technology sector is experiencing a noticeable retreat, with adjustments in semiconductor chips, military industry, and digital currency [1] - The marine sector has surged due to favorable catalysts, while scarce resources and controllable nuclear fusion continue to perform well [1] Group 2 - The banking sector has seen an increase, while the securities sector is undergoing adjustments [1] - The "Good Up Good" practical class has reduced positions, indicating a strategy to sell if the price effectively breaks below the 5-day moving average [1] - Individual stocks are still in a structural market, necessitating adjustments and short-term operations [1] Group 3 - The "Good Up Good" stock has reached a new high, and the stock "Hengbao Co." has doubled in value over 13 days [1] - The market presents numerous opportunities, as indicated by the performance of individual stocks and sectors [3]

Group 1 - The "Big Beautiful Bill" was narrowly passed in the Senate with a vote of 51-50, indicating a contentious political environment [2] - The bill has undergone changes from its version passed in the House, necessitating further negotiations between the two chambers [3] - The core of the bill is described as favoring military spending and tax cuts for the wealthy, while reducing welfare benefits for the poor [5][11] Group 2 - The bill's tax cuts disproportionately benefit large corporations and wealthy individuals, raising concerns about increasing fiscal deficits and national debt [5][15] - The elimination of subsidies for renewable energy is seen as a significant threat to companies like Tesla, which rely on these incentives [6] - The political dynamics suggest that traditional energy interests are prioritized over renewable energy, leading to potential conflicts for companies in the green sector [8][10] Group 3 - The bill is criticized for shifting the financial burden onto lower-income individuals while providing minimal tangible benefits to them [11][12] - The narrative surrounding the bill is manipulated to distract the public from its regressive nature, similar to historical tax policies that favored the elite [13] - The potential long-term consequences of the bill could lead to inflation and a devaluation of the dollar, impacting global economic stability [15][20]