光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 8 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一尿素期货价格弱势波动，09 合约收盘价 1722 元/吨，跌幅 0.98%；01 合约收盘 价 1751 元/吨，跌幅 0.34%。现货市场同步偏弱，主流地区现货价格下调 10~50 元/ | | | | 吨不等，山东、河南地区市场价格分别为 1730 元/吨、1740 元/吨，日环比分别跌 | | | | 30 元/吨、40 元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平窄幅波动，行业日产量昨日 19.30 万 | | | 尿素 | 吨，日环比增 0.12 万吨。需求端跟进依旧不足，农业需求淡季，工业需求支撑有限， | 震荡 | | | 尿素企业新单成交略显乏力。昨日主流地区现货产销率分化明显，仅个别地区能达到 | | | | 100%及以上。出口消息扰动仍存，但当前市场情绪回落，难寻利好支撑。预计短期尿 | | | | 素期货价格偏弱震荡运行，关注主力合约移仓换月影响、出口政策相关动态、现货市 | | | | 场成交氛围。 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to allocate over 700 billion yuan in special bonds for long-term projects in 2024, with nearly 500 billion yuan already arranged for 2025, focusing on major infrastructure projects along the Yangtze River and urban development [1] - The "Two New" policies have accelerated consumer spending, with sales in five major product categories reaching approximately 830 billion yuan by May 5, 2023, and over 300 million applications for vehicle trade-in subsidies [1][2] - The NDRC is working to enhance the business environment, aiming to boost social confidence and market vitality through streamlined administrative services and improved market competition [2] Group 2 - The NDRC has initiated a market access barrier cleanup action to ensure a unified national market, focusing on eliminating unreasonable regulations and practices [2] - A new initiative allows for the replacement of proof of no violations with specialized credit reports, aimed at reducing the burden on businesses [3] - The NDRC is addressing "involution" competition in various industries, emphasizing the need for structural adjustments and fair competition to maintain market order [3][4]

Group 1 - The core phenomenon observed is that the market capitalization of traditional energy leader China Shenhua has surpassed that of new energy leader CATL, highlighting the competitive dynamics between old and new energy sectors [1][2] - The performance of China Shenhua, with a market capitalization of 664.6 billion yuan, has outperformed many new energy stocks despite positive news in the electric vehicle sector, such as BYD surpassing Tesla in quarterly sales [2][4] - Fund managers are increasingly recognizing the potential in old energy stocks as new energy valuations become overheated, leading to a strategic shift towards undervalued traditional energy companies [3][7] Group 2 - The annual stock price growth of China Shenhua from 2019 to 2023 has been impressive, with increases of 13.12%, 10.11%, 56.89%, 43.83%, and 25.05%, significantly outperforming many new energy stocks [2][4] - The demand for upstream resources in China is rising due to economic recovery, which is positively impacting the stock performance of companies like China Shenhua [3] - Some fund managers are returning to traditional energy investments, indicating a trend where the old energy sector is being viewed as a stable and attractive investment opportunity amidst the volatility of new energy stocks [4][6] Group 3 - The shift in investment focus from new to old energy is attributed to the supply-demand imbalance created by excessive capital inflow into new energy, which has led to a cooling off in the old energy sector [7][8] - Historical examples, such as the performance of traditional media stocks in the U.S., illustrate that old sectors can thrive even when new sectors are gaining attention, suggesting a similar potential for old energy stocks in the current market [8]

6 月 5 日，由河南省石油和化学工业协会主办，中国平煤神马控股集团有限公司、上海全应科技有限公司承办，中国节能协会热电产业委员会指导 的"东大化学 ADMC 热电智能调控系统"交付仪式在河南开封举行。仪式中，河南平煤神马东大化学有限公司与上海全应科技有限公司携手，向来自化工、 能源领域的专家学者、企业代表及媒体展示河南省首个化工热电全流程智能化控制项目的落地成果，标志着河南化工行业向"智能、高效、绿色"转型迈出关 键一步。 在致辞环节，河南平煤神马东大化学有限公司董事长陈国君指出，东大化学作为河南省煤化工重点企业，积极响应国家"十五五"规划及"双碳"目标要 求，聚焦热电系统这一煤化工"动力心脏"的传统控制痛点，与全应科技合作引入ADMC热电智能调控系统，成为全省化工行业首个实现热电生产智能调控的 企业。该系统实现设备自动投用率100%、能效提升1.5%，通过"智能监盘—自动决策—精准执行"闭环模式，以数据驱动大幅提升生产精准性与效率，降低 能耗与排放，完美契合国家新技术应用要求。东大化学愿以"河南样本"为基础，向行业分享控制模板与调试经验，推动智能化转型成果在全省乃至全国煤化 工领域推广，助力行业降本增效。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - Olefins - Polyolefins: The futures of olefins rose slightly, with some PDH plants restarting and a major Shandong plant planning maintenance, supporting supply. Propylene producers were eager to raise prices. Polyolefins futures remained in a low - level range. PE had limited supply changes and moderate demand growth, with limited upward momentum. PP supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Oil prices weakened, and pure benzene futures fluctuated. The spot price in East China rose slightly, and the far - month price was weak. Downstream备货 willingness improved, and port inventory decreased slightly. Styrene futures were weak, with weak cost support and ongoing supply - demand contradictions [3]. - Polyester: Affected by the weekend's strong filament sales, PX and PTA prices rebounded. PTA supply was still weak, and PX was expected to improve in the third quarter. Ethylene glycol prices rebounded, with increasing production but also expectations of reduced imports and rising demand. Short fiber had stable supply - demand, and bottle chip had low processing margins and long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. - Coal Chemicals: Methanol prices fluctuated narrowly, with expected increases in imports and different inventory trends in coastal and inland areas. Urea prices followed the market sentiment down, with weak agricultural demand and limited improvement from compound fertilizers. PVC was expected to be weak due to high production and low demand. Caustic soda was strong in the short - term but faced long - term supply pressure [6]. - Soda Ash - Glass: Soda ash prices were under pressure, with continued inventory accumulation and high supply. Glass prices were expected to be supported by cost, with improved processing orders but still weak compared to the same period last year [7]. Summary by Sections Olefins - Polyolefins - Futures of olefins rose slightly, with some PDH plants restarting and a major Shandong plant planning maintenance, supporting supply. Propylene producers were eager to raise prices [2]. - Polyolefins futures remained in a low - level range. PE had limited supply changes and moderate demand growth, with limited upward momentum. PP supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Oil prices weakened, and pure benzene futures fluctuated. The spot price in East China rose slightly, and the far - month price was weak. Downstream备货 willingness improved, and port inventory decreased slightly [3] - Styrene futures were weak, with weak cost support and ongoing supply - demand contradictions [3] Polyester - Affected by the weekend's strong filament sales, PX and PTA prices rebounded. PTA supply was still weak, and PX was expected to improve in the third quarter [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded, with increasing production but also expectations of reduced imports and rising demand. Short fiber had stable supply - demand, and bottle chip had low processing margins and long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol prices fluctuated narrowly, with expected increases in imports and different inventory trends in coastal and inland areas [6] - Urea prices followed the market sentiment down, with weak agricultural demand and limited improvement from compound fertilizers [6] - PVC was expected to be weak due to high production and low demand. Caustic soda was strong in the short - term but faced long - term supply pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices were under pressure, with continued inventory accumulation and high supply [7] - Glass prices were expected to be supported by cost, with improved processing orders but still weak compared to the same period last year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance and operational status of Inner Mongolia Jinmei Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. for the first half of 2025, indicating a mixed performance with increased revenue but continued losses, alongside industry trends in the chemical and coal chemical sectors [1][2]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - The company reported a revenue of approximately 473.44 million yuan, an increase of 18.49% compared to the same period last year [6]. - The total profit for the period was a loss of approximately 91.41 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 142.15 million yuan in the previous year [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of about 72.81 million yuan, compared to a loss of 111.82 million yuan in the same period last year [6]. - The company’s total assets decreased by 5.52% to approximately 1.20 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous year [6]. Industry Analysis Petrochemical Industry - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) decreased by 4.5% from the beginning of the year, indicating a downward trend in profitability within the industry [4]. - The average operating rate in the petrochemical refining industry was around 75%, with some local refineries operating below 60% [4]. - A moderate recovery in demand from the construction and textile industries is expected to support some petrochemical products [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - The coal chemical sector is experiencing a bifurcation in profitability, with modern projects like coal-to-olefins performing well, while traditional sectors face increased losses due to low downstream demand [4]. - The report anticipates a favorable cost environment for coal chemical projects in the second half of 2025, driven by declining raw material prices [4]. - Significant investments in coal chemical projects are underway, with over 140 billion yuan allocated to new projects [4]. Operational Performance - The company produced 83,000 tons of ethylene glycol, a year-on-year increase of 21.99%, and 53,700 tons of oxalic acid, a slight increase of 0.91% [5]. - The production facilities operated for 179 days, achieving the best historical performance, with significant reductions in resource consumption [5]. - Sales of ethylene glycol reached 85,600 tons, up approximately 27.9%, while oxalic acid sales increased by 10.06% to 55,400 tons [5]. Financial Management - The company has successfully negotiated new loans and refinancing, supported by its major shareholder, to alleviate operational funding pressures [5]. - The cash flow from operating activities improved significantly, reaching approximately 12.58 million yuan, compared to a negative cash flow in the previous year [6]. Environmental and Safety Standards - The company maintained a strong safety record with no environmental incidents reported during the period, achieving 100% compliance in waste management [5]. - The company is committed to enhancing its environmental practices in line with stricter national regulations [5].

Group 1 - The company reported its Q2 2025 operational data, highlighting production, sales, and revenue figures for its main products [1] - Ethylene glycol production was 4.20 million tons, with sales of 4.13 million tons generating revenue of 15,000.52 million yuan [1] - Oxalic acid production was 2.66 million tons, with sales of 3.22 million tons generating revenue of 7,296.83 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The average selling price of ethylene glycol decreased by 6.35%, from 4,385.02 yuan/ton to 4,106.58 yuan/ton [1] - The average selling price of oxalic acid decreased by 4.88%, from 2,689.95 yuan/ton to 2,558.63 yuan/ton [1] Group 3 - The average purchase price of lignite decreased by 10.03%, from 524.55 yuan/ton to 471.95 yuan/ton [1] - The average purchase price of high-calorific coal decreased by 13.90%, from 843.75 yuan/ton to 726.43 yuan/ton [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for long-term growth in Xinjiang, supported by continuous policy empowerment and significant economic achievements in the region [5][22] - Xinjiang is positioned as a core area for national energy security, with rapid development in coal chemical industries and substantial investments planned [23] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by supply-side reforms and improved demand from policy initiatives [8] Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.2 percentage points this week, with a weekly increase of 2.3% [11] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 16.3%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.8 percentage points [11] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in Xinjiang, particularly in sectors such as civil explosives, chemical engineering, and resource-based enterprises [5][23] - Key companies to watch include: - Civil Explosives: Yipuli, Jiangnan Chemical, Guangdong Hongda, Xuefeng Technology, Kailong Co [5] - Chemical Engineering: Sanwei Chemical, China Chemical, Donghua Technology, Sinopec Refining Engineering [5] - Resource-based Enterprises: Guanghui Energy, Baofeng Energy, Hubei Yihua, Tianfu Energy, Xinjiang Tianye [5] Product Price Movements - The report notes significant price increases in various chemical products, with hydrochloric acid rising by 900% and ammonium chloride by 13.3% [30][32] - Conversely, prices for some products like trichlorosucrose have decreased by 28% [30][32] Company Announcements - Companies such as Qixiang Tengda and Jiahuan Energy have reported significant operational updates and financial results, indicating a positive trend in revenue and profit growth [24][25][27]

证券代码：600844，900921 证券简称：金煤科技，金煤 B 股 编号：临 2025－036 内蒙古金煤化工科技股份有限公司 | 主要原材料名称 | 2025 年二季度平 | 2025 年一季度平 | 变动幅度（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 均进价（元/吨） | 均进价（元/吨） | | | 褐煤 | 471.95 | 524.55 | -10.03 | | 高卡煤 | 726.43 | 843.75 | -13.90 | 本公告之经营数据未经审计，公司董事会提醒投资者审慎使用上述数据。 特此公告。 2025 年二季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 公司 2025 年第二季度主要经营数据披露如下： 二、主要产品的价格变动情况（含税） | 主要产品 | 2025 年二季度平 | 2025 | 年一季度平 | 变动幅度（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 均售价（元/吨） | 均售价（元/吨） | | ...

Group 1 - The power system is crucial for the normal production operations of coal chemical enterprises, and the company has focused on optimizing and transforming its power system this year, achieving significant results in energy conservation, environmental protection, and cost reduction [1] - The company established a special task force to benchmark against industry leaders, implementing measures such as professional setting calculations and on-site verification to ensure quick isolation during faults and prevent misoperation during normal conditions, effectively enhancing the safety of the power system [1] - To mitigate the risk of voltage fluctuations, the company added anti-surge modules to 10 critical load devices in the cyclohexanone unit, significantly reducing the risk of unplanned shutdowns and improving the stability of the power supply system [1] Group 2 - The company has strengthened regular inspections and maintenance of the power supply circuit breaker, upgraded technology to enhance the aging resistance and oxidation resistance of contacts, and utilized real-time online monitoring to provide early warnings for overheating risks, thereby constructing a multi-layered protection network [2] - These measures effectively reduce operational risks, save costs, and ensure the continuous and stable operation of the power system [2]