对话电新：如何展望新能源装机增长及发电增量？ 20250702 摘要 国内光伏装机规模 2020 年至 2024 年实现四倍增长，2025 年 1-5 月 新增装机 93GW，同比增长约 150%，受益于抢装效应，全年预计仍将 同比增长，超出市场预期。 国内风电装机规模 2021 年至 2024 年稳步增长，2025 年 1-5 月新增 46GW，同比翻倍，受 136 号文驱动。预计全年陆上风电可达 100GW，同比增幅约 30%-40%，海上风电翻倍以上增长至 10GW 或 更多，整体风电装机预计超 110GW，同比增速约 40%。 未来几年新能源发电领域将保持较高增速，政策支持和技术进步推动需 求增长。光伏海外市场（非欧美地区）将成为主要增长点，风电国内市 场预计平稳增长，海上风电增速加快。 光伏行业增速或放缓，但全球视角下仍保持两位数复合增速。国内风电 十五期间预计平稳增长，陆上风电维持在 100GW 以上水平，2030 年 有望超 200GW。海外陆上风电预计维持 10%左右复合增速，海上风电 竞争力显著提升。 Q&A 过去几年风光装机的投产规模和节奏如何？今年（2025 年）相比以往有哪些 变化？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Marine Clean Energy Technology and Equipment Summit will be held from July 23-25 in Nantong, focusing on the development and innovation of marine clean energy technologies and equipment [2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The summit will include various activities such as the Young Scientists Forum, an industry development and innovation conference, four specialized forums, and exhibitions of innovative products and technologies [2]. - The event is co-hosted by the Yangtze River Delta Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering Equipment Technology Innovation Center, the Yangtze River Delta Offshore Wind Power Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Innovation Alliance, and Jiangsu University of Science and Technology [27][43]. Group 2: Key Topics and Discussions - Discussions will address the challenges of developing marine clean energy in deep waters, focusing on balancing development difficulties with cost reduction [9]. - Reports will cover advancements in key technologies for large-capacity offshore floating vertical axis wind turbines and trends in supporting technologies for offshore renewable energy [10]. - Specialized forums will explore cost reduction and efficiency enhancement in offshore wind power, including project development, equipment selection, construction, and operation [12]. Group 3: Technical Innovations - Presentations will include topics such as the current status and innovative trends of composite submarine cables, and the application of ultrasonic non-destructive testing in installation and operation [14]. - The summit will also feature discussions on the integration of hydrogen and electricity systems, and the development of new materials to support cost-effective deep-sea operations [14][16]. Group 4: Future Directions - The event will highlight the "Power to X" projects, discussing their technological routes, implementation progress, and future business models, as well as the bottleneck issues they address [24]. - The summit aims to accelerate the replication and promotion of successful projects in the marine clean energy sector [24].

Legislative Progress - The "Beautiful Act" has passed the Senate with a narrow margin of 51 to 50, entering the final legislative phase [1][13] - The bill will undergo review in the House of Representatives, with potential for further amendments [1][13] - Three possible timelines for final passage: before July 4, mid-July, or late July to August [2][13] Content Adjustments - The Senate version increases the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, $550 billion more than the House version [2][14] - Corporate tax cuts are expanded while personal tax cuts are reduced, favoring high-income earners [2][14] - Significant cuts to healthcare and welfare spending, with medical assistance cuts increasing from $800 billion to $930 billion [3][14] Economic Impact - The "Beautiful Act" is expected to moderately boost the U.S. economy, potentially increasing annual GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027 [4][15] - The lowest 20% of income households may see a 2.9% decrease in income, while the highest 20% could experience a 1.9% increase [5][15] - Capital-intensive industries (manufacturing, data centers) are likely to benefit, while the renewable energy sector may face challenges due to reduced tax incentives [5][15]

今天的体感普遍不太好，两市超3200家个股下跌，成交额缩到了1.37万亿，比昨天少了快近千亿。资金 方面机构继续扫货，净流入200亿，但主力加散户跑了500亿左右，说明很多人看到反弹就想着落袋为安 了，那情绪还是偏谨慎的。和讯投顾吴嘉仪分析，大盘这一块看似踩着5日线准备去冲关，但就是没有 冲上去，反而停在了关键的位置。那接下来这一两天大概率是要选择方向的，到底是直接挑战3500点， 还是说回踩20日线再蓄势上攻，呢别急，我们等信号明确再说。那板块方面今天涨的好的是深海经济、 钢铁、水泥、光伏和部分合成生物方向，我们一个一个来讲清楚。 （原标题：和讯投顾吴嘉仪：大盘缩量机构继续扫货，明天是去是留？） 来首先是我们的深海经济，其实之前就已经炒过了，现在高层再度强调可见重视的一个程度，啊那这其 实也是军工的一个延伸逻辑。我之前在视频里也跟大家去说过，军工的细分啊特别的多，海陆空都有机 会，那今年大涨的基本是海洋的装备类，比如船舶制造、海上风电捕捞设备这一些方向，而光伏加水泥 加钢铁这三块大涨的背后有一个共同的逻辑，就是控产能稳增长，反内卷那6月底人民日报发文是破除 内卷式的一个竞争，重点点名了光伏还有新能源汽车。7 ...

今天A股震荡走低，指数集体回调， 创业板指 跌逾1%。A股成交1.41万亿元，上日为1.5万亿元。 午后，钢铁股爆量拉升！ A股市场和商品市场紧密联动，成为今天盘面一大特点。 商品市场上， 多晶硅、玻璃期货领涨， 多晶硅涨停，玻璃涨超6%， 工业硅、硅铁等品种跟 涨。A股市场上，光伏、玻璃、钢铁等板块大涨。 | < 日 | | 钢铁指数(886012) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2231.23 80.38 +3.74% | | | 招标 | 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | 盛德鑫泰 | 35.85 | 17.00% | 5.21 | | 300881.SZ | | | | | 重庆钢铁 | 1.41 | 10.16% | 0.13 | | 601005.SH | | | | | 柳钢股份 | 4.26 | 10.08% | 0.39 | | 601003.SH | | | | | 直钢股份 | 3.86 | 9.97% | 0.35 | | 000959.SZ | | | | | 三钢闽光 | 3.86 | 8.12% | 0.29 | | 002110.S ...

这几天，在宁夏银川市永宁县大唐闽宁绿电小镇100MW/200MWh共享储能电站项目建设现场，工人热 火朝天地施工，再加上机器设备的轰鸣声，共同奏响了这个西北地区首个"绿电小镇"配套项目加速推 进"进行曲"。 区别于传统的跟网型储能电站，作为"绿电小镇"首个构网型储能项目，该项目具备电压和频率的调节功 能，能够在周边线路出现故障大面积失电时，自发启动为电网供电，确保电力供应的稳定性和可靠性。 同时，该项目利用人工智能、大数据类比技术，研发新能源最优配比模型，精准计算实现"24小时绿 电"供应所需的源荷储最优配置比例，为新型电力系统新能源、储能建设规模提供参考依据，实现智能 最优配比。 该项目并网运行后，大唐闽宁共享储能电站相当于超大型"充电宝"，基本实现一天一充一放，满足闽宁 镇调用需求，一次可以存储电量20万度。项目投产后，可满足约2.4万户家庭一天的用电需求，年减排 二氧化碳约3万吨。 位于银川经开区的天通银厦新材料有限公司展示厅，各式各样的工业蓝宝石晶体材料依次排列，分外耀 眼。作为现代工业至关重要的基础材料，工业蓝宝石在LED照明和显示、消费类电子、医疗美容、工业 激光器、工业光窗、半导体基板以及mic ...

Group 1: National Unified Market Construction - The Central Economic Committee emphasizes the importance of establishing a national unified market to eliminate "involution" competition and promote the integration of domestic and foreign trade [1][3] - Key requirements include unified market infrastructure, government behavior standards, and regulatory enforcement, along with continuous expansion of internal and external openness [3][4] - Six major work guidelines focus on addressing low-price disorderly competition, enhancing product quality, and facilitating the orderly exit of backward production capacity [3][4][5] Group 2: Industry Capacity Adjustment - The push for the exit of backward and inefficient production capacity will encompass a broader range of industries, including both traditional and emerging sectors such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles [1][5] - The strategy for capacity reduction will involve optimizing industrial layout, strengthening standard guidance, and promoting restructuring [5][6] - Historical data shows that after the supply-side structural reform initiated in 2015, profit margins in the steel and coal industries significantly improved, indicating potential benefits from similar future reforms [5] Group 3: Integration of Domestic and Foreign Trade - The meeting highlights the importance of integrating domestic and foreign trade, viewing it as a key opportunity for foreign trade enterprises to establish a presence in the domestic market and cultivate independent brands [6][7] - The establishment of a unified market system will provide institutional support for this integration, enhancing competitiveness and aligning domestic rules with international standards [6] Group 4: Marine Economy Development - The meeting outlines a focus on high-quality development of the marine economy, emphasizing innovation, efficient collaboration, and industry updates [8][9] - Key industries identified for growth include offshore wind power, modern deep-sea fishing, marine biomedicine, and marine tourism [9] - The marine economy is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in total output by 2024, reflecting a 5.9% year-on-year growth, presenting significant market opportunities [9]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a V-shaped reversal with a slight increase on July 1, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3457.75 points, up 0.39% [1][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10476.29 points, up 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24% [1][4] - A total of 14965 billion yuan was traded in the A-share market, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day [1][4] - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, 18 sectors saw an increase, with pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and banking leading the gains, while comprehensive finance, computers, and retail saw significant declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - The US stock market saw a general increase on July 1, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.91% [2][4] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.82% [2][4] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.2% and the Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index up 0.27% [2][4] Key News Highlights - The Central Economic Committee held its sixth meeting, focusing on advancing the construction of a unified national market and high-quality development of the marine economy [10][11] - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs [14] - A series of national standards were implemented starting July 1, covering various sectors including proton exchange membrane fuel cells and electric vehicle battery replacement stations [16] - SEMI projected a shortage of approximately 1 million skilled workers in the global semiconductor industry by 2030 [17]

Group 1 - Shida Shenghua expects a net loss of 52 million to 60 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 236.64% to 257.66% [1] - ST Zhizhi's vice president Wang Dong resigned for personal reasons, effective immediately upon delivery of the resignation to the board [1] - Haoyuan Pharmaceutical plans to increase capital by 400 million yuan to its wholly-owned subsidiary through a debt-to-equity swap, raising the registered capital from 400 million to 800 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Longxun Co. announced that shareholders and executives plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2% of the company's shares [2] - Aijian Group confirmed it has not engaged in any stablecoin-related business as of now [3] - Yanghe Co.'s chairman Zhang Liandong resigned due to work adjustments, effective immediately [5] Group 3 - Huanwei New Materials announced a stock suspension due to the major matter that may lead to a change in control [5] - Hualing Cable recently won contracts worth 456 million yuan in the power new energy sector, accounting for 10.97% of its audited revenue for 2024 [6] - Aerospace Changfeng plans to publicly transfer 55.45% of its stake in Aerospace Boke [6] Group 4 - Suzhou Planning is planning to acquire control of Dongjin Aerospace Technology, leading to a stock suspension for up to 10 trading days [6] - Yuexiu Capital intends to increase its stake in Yuexiu Real Estate using up to 204.22 million yuan through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [6] - Baichuan Co.'s actual controller and chairman Zheng Tiejiang is under investigation and has received a detention notice [7] Group 5 - XWANDA plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [8] - ST Aowei reported a loss of approximately 25.04 million yuan in inventory due to poor storage by a third party [8] - Yian Technology plans to increase capital by 120 million yuan to its subsidiary, raising its equity stake from 60% to 72.973% [9] Group 6 - Dongli New Science's wholly-owned subsidiary was applied for bankruptcy reorganization by creditors due to insolvency [11] - Bochuang Technology changed its name to Changxin Bochuang Technology, effective July 2, 2025 [14] - Huayang Co.'s controlling shareholder received a notice of administrative penalty from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [15] Group 7 - Hangzhou Thermal Power's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 4.09% of the company's shares [16] - Guoke Military Industry's two shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1.81% of the company's shares [17] - Pangu Intelligent's seven shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1% of the company's shares [19]

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need for high-quality development of the marine economy, focusing on top-level design, policy support, and encouraging social capital participation [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing independent innovation capabilities in marine technology and fostering leading marine technology enterprises and specialized small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - Key areas for development include offshore wind power, modern deep-sea fishing, marine biomedicine, and creating marine cultural and tourism destinations [2] Group 2 - Recent high-level meetings have consistently prioritized the development of the marine economy, with specific goals set for 2024 and beyond [3] - Various provinces are actively implementing policies to boost marine economic development, with Guangdong and Shanghai leading initiatives to enhance marine industries and attract investment [4] - The northern, eastern, and southern marine economic circles in China are developing distinct advantages based on their resource endowments and industrial foundations [5]